chapter 4 conducting marketing research and forecasting demand
DESCRIPTION
TRANSCRIPT
![Page 1: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/1.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand
Donna Sia, Rhea Jardin, Shelle CaigaMBA StandardApril 7, 2012
![Page 2: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/2.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
1. Defining Marketing Research2. Developing the research plan3. Metrics for measuring good marketing
productivity4. Assessing ROI of marketing
expenditures5. Measuring and Forecasting Demand
Outline: Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand
![Page 3: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/3.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
important because it…
Why?– Can lead to the success of a brand or a
product.
How?– By producing insight into the
customer’s attitudes and buying behavior
Marketing research is…
![Page 4: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/4.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Research is the…
Systematic design Collection Analysis Reporting of data and findings
relevant to a specific marketing situation facing the company.
![Page 5: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/5.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Research Process involves…
6.Making the decision
1.Defining the problem
& objectives
2.Developing the
research plan
3.Collectinginformation
4.Analyzing the information
5.Presenting the findings
![Page 6: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/6.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Developing the Research Plan
1. Data Sources
2. Research instruments
3. Research approach
4. Sampling plan
5. Contact methods
![Page 7: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/7.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Researchers can gather:
Primary Data– Data freshly gathered for a specific purpose or
for a specific research project
Secondary Data– Collected for another purpose and
already exist somewhere
Developing the Research Plan
![Page 8: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/8.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Developing the Research Plan
Observation Focused Group Survey Research
Behavioral DataExperimentation
Marketing Research can be approached in many ways:
![Page 9: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/9.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
The following research instruments are used to collect data:
Questionnaires
Qualitative Measures
Technological Devices
Developing the Research Plan
![Page 10: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/10.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Some popular Qualitative Research approaches are…
.
Why
WhyWhy
Word association Projective techniques
VisualizationBrand Personification
Laddering
Step 2: Developing the Research Plan
![Page 11: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/11.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Sampling Plan decisions:
1) Sampling plan unit: Who should we survey?
2) Sample size: How many people should we survey
3) Sampling procedure: How should we choose the respondents?
Developing the Research Plan
![Page 12: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/12.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Probability Sample
1) Simple random sample
2) Stratified random sample
3) Cluster Sample
Non probability Sample
4) Convenience sample
5) Judgment sample
6) Quota sample
Probability and Non probability Samples:
Step 2: Developing the Research Plan
![Page 13: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/13.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Contact Methods:
Mail Questionnaire
Telephone Interview Personal Interview
Online Interview
Developing the Research Plan
![Page 14: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/14.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Characteristics of good marketing research
Scientific Method Multiple methods
Interdependence of
models and data
Value and cost of information
Healthy skepticism Ethical marketing
Research creativity
![Page 15: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/15.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Measuring Marketing Productivity-Marketing Metrics
AwarenessMarket share Relative price
Number of complaints
Consumer Satisfacti
on& Loyalty
DistributionTotal number of customers
External
![Page 16: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/16.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Mix ModelInternal
Awareness &commitment to
goals
Freedom to failDesire to learn
Resource adequacy
Willingness to change Autonomy
Active support
![Page 17: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/17.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Dashboards to improve effectiveness and efficiency
Customer Metrics Unit Metrics Cash-flow Brand
![Page 18: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/18.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Measurement Pathway
Technically Sound but Ad-hoc Efforts Across Multiple Measurement Silos
Customer Metrics
Unit Metrics
Cash-Flow Metrics
Brand Metrics Metrics
Hierarchy of Effects
Products/Category Sales
Program & Company ROI
Brand Imagery/Attributes
Satisfaction/Experience
Marketing Cost/Unit
Media MixModels
Equity Drivers
Attitude/BehaviorSegment Margin
Margin Optimization
Initiative PortfolioOptimization
FinancialValuation
![Page 19: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/19.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Measurement Pathway
Technically Sound but Ad-hoc Efforts Across Multiple Measurement Silos
Customer Metrics
Unit Metrics
Cash-Flow Metrics
Brand Metrics Metrics
Hierarchy of Effects
Products/Category Sales
Program & Company ROI
Brand Imagery/Attributes
Satisfaction/Experience
Marketing Cost/Unit
Media MixModels
Equity Drivers
Attitude/BehaviorSegment Margin
Margin Optimization
Initiative PortfolioOptimization
FinancialValuation
Result: Hundreds of reports but very
Little knowledge integration or learning synthesis
![Page 20: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/20.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Purpose: – Identify market opportunities
How: – Measure and forecast size, growth
and profit potential of market opportunities
Who: – Marketers are responsible for preparing sales
forecast which are based on estimates of demand.
Forecasting Demand and Measurement
![Page 21: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/21.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
1. Market Demand
2. Company Demand
• Demand function• Sales forecast• Potential
Major Concepts in Demand Measurement
![Page 22: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/22.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Ninety Types of Demand Measurement
![Page 23: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/23.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Ways to break down the market:1. Potential Market
2. Available Market
3. Target Market
4. Penetrated market
The Measures of Market Demand
![Page 24: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/24.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Market Forecast– Market demand corresponding to the level of
Industry marketing expenditure.
Market Potential– Is the limit approached by the market demand as
an industry marketing expenditures approach infinity for a given marketing environment.
Market Forecast and Market Potential
![Page 25: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/25.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Demand as a function of Marketing Expenditure
Planned expenditure
Market potential, Q2
Market forecast, QF
Market minimum, Q1
Industry Marketing ExpenditureMark
et
Dem
and in t
he S
peci
fic
Peri
od
![Page 26: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/26.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Demand as a function of Marketing Expenditure
Recession
Market Potential(prosperity)
Market Potential(recession)
Industry Marketing ExpenditureMark
et
Dem
and in t
he S
peci
fic
Peri
od
Prosperity
![Page 27: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/27.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Market Demand– total volume that would be bought ….
Market Demand and Company Demand
by a defined customer group
in a defined geographical area
in a defined time period
in a defined marketing
environment
A defined Marketing Program
![Page 28: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/28.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Company Demand– Is the company’s estimated share of market
demand at alternative levels of company marketing effort at a given time period
Market Demand and Company Demand
![Page 29: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/29.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Company Sales Forecast– Is the expected level of company sales based on a
chosen marketing plan and an assumed target market
Company Sales Potential– is the sales limit approached by company demand
as a company marketing effort increases relative to that of competitors
Company Sales Forecast and Sales Potential
![Page 30: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/30.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing executives would like to estimate..1. Total Market Potential
2. Area Market Potential
3. Total Industry Sales and Market share
Estimating Current Demand
![Page 31: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/31.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Total Market Potential is the
Estimating Current Demand
maximum amount of sales
available to all the firms in an industry
during a given period
Marketing effort and environment
![Page 32: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/32.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Area Market PotentialEstimating market potential of different
Estimating Current Demand
maximum amount of sales in an area (city, state or nation)
during a given period
Marketing effort and environment
![Page 33: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/33.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
The 2 Major Methods of assessing area market potential are…
1. Market-Build-up Method – Identify all the potential buyers in
each market and estimate their potential
purchases
2. Multiple-Factor Index Method-assigning weights to different factors (income, sales,
population, buying power)
Estimating Current Demand
![Page 34: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/34.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Calculating the Brand Development Index:
Estimating Current Demand
Territory Percent of US Brand
Percent of US Category
BDI
Sales Sales (a/b) x100
Seattle, CA 3.09 2.71 114
Portland, OR 6.74 10.41 65
Boston, MA 3.49 3.85 91
Toledo, OH 0.97 0.81 120
Chicago, IL 1.13 0.81 140
Baltimore, MD
3.12 3.00 104
![Page 35: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/35.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Industry Sales and Marketing Shares– identifying competitors and estimating their sales
– Derive data from: industry trade association– Buy reports from marketing research (E.g.
Nielsen)– Industry Data, Competitors Data– Over-all or Brand by Brand
Estimating Current Demand
![Page 36: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/36.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Good forecasting is a key factor in success
Estimating Future Demand
Macroeconomi
c
Industry
Company
Forecast
![Page 37: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/37.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
All forecasts are built on one of the three information bases:1. What people say. (Survey)
2. What people do (Test Market)
3. What people have done. (Buying History)
Estimating Future Demand
![Page 38: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/38.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Survey of Buying IntentionsForecasting
– Is the art of anticipating what buyers are likely to do under a given set of conditions.
Do you intend to buy a car in the next 6 months?
Purchase probability scale
Estimating Future Demand
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
No Chance Slight Possibility
Fair Possibility
Good Possibility
High Possibility
Certain
![Page 39: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/39.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Composite of Sales Force Opinion– Sales representatives
Expert Opinion – dealers, distributors, suppliers, marketing
consultants and trade associations
Past-sales Analysis– Time series analysis, Exponential smoothing,
Statistical demand analysis (causal factors), Econometric Analysis
Market-Test Method
Estimating Future Demand
![Page 40: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/40.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Summary:
6.Making the decision
1.Defining the
problem & objectives
2.Developing the research plan
3.Collectinginformation
4.Analyzing the information
5.Presenting the findings
Sample plan, Sources, Contact Methods, Instruments
Customer is happy The brand is profitable Employees are satisfied
Market and company Demand
Total and Area Market Potential, industry sales & market share
Sales Force, Experts, History and Market Sales
![Page 41: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/41.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand
Donna Sia, Rhea Jardin, Shelle CaigaMBA StandardApril 7, 2012
![Page 42: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/42.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand
Donna SiaMBA StandardApril 7, 2012
![Page 43: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/43.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
1. Defining Marketing Research2. Developing the research plan3. Metrics for measuring good marketing
productivity4. Assessing ROI of marketing
expenditures5. Measuring and Forecasting Demand
Outline: Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand
![Page 44: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/44.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
important because it…
Why?– Can lead to the success of a brand or a
product.
How?– By producing insight into the
customer’s attitudes and buying behavior
Marketing research is…
![Page 45: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/45.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Research is the…
Systematic design Collection Analysis Reporting of data and findings
relevant to a specific marketing situation facing the company.
![Page 46: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/46.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Research Process involves…
6.Making the decision
1.Defining the problem
& objectives
2.Developing the
research plan
3.Collectinginformation
4.Analyzing the information
5.Presenting the findings
![Page 47: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/47.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Developing the Research Plan
1. Data Sources
2. Research instruments
3. Research approach
4. Sampling plan
5. Contact methods
![Page 48: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/48.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Researchers can gather:
Primary Data– Data freshly gathered for a specific purpose or
for a specific research project
Secondary Data– Collected for another purpose and
already exist somewhere
Developing the Research Plan
![Page 49: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/49.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Developing the Research Plan
Observation Focused Group Survey Research
Behavioral DataExperimentation
Marketing Research can be approached in many ways:
![Page 50: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/50.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
The following research instruments are used to collect data:
Questionnaires
Qualitative Measures
Technological Devices
Developing the Research Plan
![Page 51: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/51.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Some popular Qualitative Research approaches are…
.
Why
WhyWhy
Word association Projective techniques
VisualizationBrand Personification
Laddering
Step 2: Developing the Research Plan
![Page 52: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/52.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Sampling Plan decisions:
1) Sampling plan unit: Who should we survey?
2) Sample size: How many people should we survey
3) Sampling procedure: How should we choose the respondents?
Developing the Research Plan
![Page 53: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/53.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Probability Sample
1) Simple random sample
2) Stratified random sample
3) Cluster Sample
Non probability Sample
4) Convenience sample
5) Judgment sample
6) Quota sample
Probability and Non probability Samples:
Step 2: Developing the Research Plan
![Page 54: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/54.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Contact Methods:
Mail Questionnaire
Telephone Interview Personal Interview
Online Interview
Developing the Research Plan
![Page 55: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/55.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Characteristics of good marketing research
Scientific Method Multiple methods
Interdependence of
models and data
Value and cost of information
Healthy skepticism Ethical marketing
Research creativity
![Page 56: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/56.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Measuring Marketing Productivity-Marketing Metrics
AwarenessMarket share Relative price
Number of complaints
Consumer Satisfacti
on& Loyalty
DistributionTotal number of customers
External
![Page 57: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/57.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Mix ModelInternal
Awareness &commitment to
goals
Freedom to failDesire to learn
Resource adequacy
Willingness to change Autonomy
Active support
![Page 58: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/58.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Dashboards to improve effectiveness and efficiency
Customer Metrics Unit Metrics Cash-flow Brand
![Page 59: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/59.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Measurement Pathway
Technically Sound but Ad-hoc Efforts Across Multiple Measurement Silos
Customer Metrics
Unit Metrics
Cash-Flow Metrics
Brand Metrics Metrics
Hierarchy of Effects
Products/Category Sales
Program & Company ROI
Brand Imagery/Attributes
Satisfaction/Experience
Marketing Cost/Unit
Media MixModels
Equity Drivers
Attitude/BehaviorSegment Margin
Margin Optimization
Initiative PortfolioOptimization
FinancialValuation
![Page 60: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/60.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Measurement Pathway
Technically Sound but Ad-hoc Efforts Across Multiple Measurement Silos
Customer Metrics
Unit Metrics
Cash-Flow Metrics
Brand Metrics Metrics
Hierarchy of Effects
Products/Category Sales
Program & Company ROI
Brand Imagery/Attributes
Satisfaction/Experience
Marketing Cost/Unit
Media MixModels
Equity Drivers
Attitude/BehaviorSegment Margin
Margin Optimization
Initiative PortfolioOptimization
FinancialValuation
Result: Hundreds of reports but very
Little knowledge integration or learning synthesis
![Page 61: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/61.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Purpose: – Identify market opportunities
How: – Measure and forecast size, growth
and profit potential of market opportunities
Who: – Marketers are responsible for preparing sales
forecast which are based on estimates of demand.
Forecasting Demand and Measurement
![Page 62: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/62.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
1. Market Demand
2. Company Demand
• Demand function• Sales forecast• Potential
Major Concepts in Demand Measurement
![Page 63: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/63.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Ninety Types of Demand Measurement
![Page 64: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/64.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Ways to break down the market:1. Potential Market
2. Available Market
3. Target Market
4. Penetrated market
The Measures of Market Demand
![Page 65: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/65.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Market Forecast– Market demand corresponding to the level of
Industry marketing expenditure.
Market Potential– Is the limit approached by the market demand as
an industry marketing expenditures approach infinity for a given marketing environment.
Market Forecast and Market Potential
![Page 66: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/66.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Demand as a function of Marketing Expenditure
Planned expenditure
Market potential, Q2
Market forecast, QF
Market minimum, Q1
Industry Marketing ExpenditureMark
et
Dem
and in t
he S
peci
fic
Peri
od
![Page 67: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/67.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Demand as a function of Marketing Expenditure
Recession
Market Potential(prosperity)
Market Potential(recession)
Industry Marketing ExpenditureMark
et
Dem
and in t
he S
peci
fic
Peri
od
Prosperity
![Page 68: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/68.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Market Demand– total volume that would be bought ….
Market Demand and Company Demand
by a defined customer group
in a defined geographical area
in a defined time period
in a defined marketing
environment
A defined Marketing Program
![Page 69: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/69.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Company Demand– Is the company’s estimated share of market
demand at alternative levels of company marketing effort at a given time period
Market Demand and Company Demand
![Page 70: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/70.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Company Sales Forecast– Is the expected level of company sales based on a
chosen marketing plan and an assumed target market
Company Sales Potential– is the sales limit approached by company demand
as a company marketing effort increases relative to that of competitors
Company Sales Forecast and Sales Potential
![Page 71: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/71.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing executives would like to estimate..1. Total Market Potential
2. Area Market Potential
3. Total Industry Sales and Market share
Estimating Current Demand
![Page 72: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/72.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Total Market Potential is the
Estimating Current Demand
maximum amount of sales
available to all the firms in an industry
during a given period
Marketing effort and environment
![Page 73: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/73.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Area Market PotentialEstimating market potential of different
Estimating Current Demand
maximum amount of sales in an area (city, state or nation)
during a given period
Marketing effort and environment
![Page 74: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/74.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
The 2 Major Methods of assessing area market potential are…
1. Market-Build-up Method – Identify all the potential buyers in
each market and estimate their potential
purchases
2. Multiple-Factor Index Method-assigning weights to different factors (income, sales,
population, buying power)
Estimating Current Demand
![Page 75: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/75.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Calculating the Brand Development Index:
Estimating Current Demand
Territory Percent of US Brand
Percent of US Category
BDI
Sales Sales (a/b) x100
Seattle, CA 3.09 2.71 114
Portland, OR 6.74 10.41 65
Boston, MA 3.49 3.85 91
Toledo, OH 0.97 0.81 120
Chicago, IL 1.13 0.81 140
Baltimore, MD
3.12 3.00 104
![Page 76: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/76.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Industry Sales and Marketing Shares– identifying competitors and estimating their sales
– Derive data from: industry trade association– Buy reports from marketing research (E.g.
Nielsen)– Industry Data, Competitors Data– Over-all or Brand by Brand
Estimating Current Demand
![Page 77: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/77.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Good forecasting is a key factor in success
Estimating Future Demand
Macroeconomi
c
Industry
Company
Forecast
![Page 78: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/78.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
All forecasts are built on one of the three information bases:1. What people say. (Survey)
2. What people do (Test Market)
3. What people have done. (Buying History)
Estimating Future Demand
![Page 79: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/79.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Survey of Buying IntentionsForecasting
– Is the art of anticipating what buyers are likely to do under a given set of conditions.
Do you intend to buy a car in the next 6 months?
Purchase probability scale
Estimating Future Demand
0.00 0.20 0.40 0.60 0.80 1.00
No Chance Slight Possibility
Fair Possibility
Good Possibility
High Possibility
Certain
![Page 80: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/80.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Composite of Sales Force Opinion– Sales representatives
Expert Opinion – dealers, distributors, suppliers, marketing
consultants and trade associations
Past-sales Analysis– Time series analysis, Exponential smoothing,
Statistical demand analysis (causal factors), Econometric Analysis
Market-Test Method
Estimating Future Demand
![Page 81: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/81.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Summary:
6.Making the decision
1.Defining the
problem & objectives
2.Developing the research plan
3.Collectinginformation
4.Analyzing the information
5.Presenting the findings
Sample plan, Sources, Contact Methods, Instruments
Customer is happy The brand is profitable Employees are satisfied
Market and company Demand
Total and Area Market Potential, industry sales & market share
Sales Force, Experts, History and Market Sales
![Page 82: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/82.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand
Donna SiaMBA StandardApril 7, 2012
![Page 83: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/83.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Conducting Marketing Research & Forecasting Demand
Marketing ManagementSubmitted to Prof. de Ungria
Shelle Caiga04.27.2012
CHAPTER 4
![Page 84: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/84.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
The Marketing Research Process
Define the problemDevelop research
planCollect informationAnalyze
informationPresent Findings
Make decision
![Page 85: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/85.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Develop the Research Plan
DataSources
Research Approach
Research Instruments
SamplingPlan
ContactMethods
![Page 86: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/86.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Research Approaches
Etnographic
Focus GroupSurvey
BehavioralData
Experimentation
![Page 87: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/87.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Questionnaires: DO’s
Ensure questions are FREE of BIAS
K.I.S.S. (Keep It Short & Simple)
Make it SPECIFIC
No to JARGONS
No to SOPHISTICATED words
No to AMBIGUOUS words
![Page 88: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/88.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Questionnaires: DON’Ts
No negatives
No hypothetical
No words that could be misheard
Use response bands
Use mutually exclusive categories
Allow for “other” in fixed response questions
![Page 89: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/89.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Qualitative Measures
Word Association
Projective Techniques
Visualization
Brand Personification
Laddering
![Page 90: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/90.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Sampling Plan
Sampling Unit
Sample Size
Sampling Procedure
![Page 91: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/91.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
PROBABILITY Sample
Involve random selection
NON-PROBABILITY Sample
x Doesn’t involve random selection
![Page 92: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/92.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Contact Methods
MAILSQUESTIONNAIRES
FACE-TO-FACEINTERVIEW
PHONEINTERVIEW
ONLINEINTERVIEW
![Page 93: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/93.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Good Marketing Research
• Scientific method• Research creativity• Multiple methods• Interdependence• Value & cost of
information• Healthy skepticism• Ethical marketing
![Page 94: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/94.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Metrics
EXTERNAL
Awareness
Market shareRelative price
Number of complaints
Customer satisfaction
Distribution
Total # of customers
Loyalty
![Page 95: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/95.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing MetricsIN
TER
NA
L
Awareness of goals
Desire to learn
Resource adequacy
Active support
Customer satisfaction
Commitment of goals
Staffing levels
Willingness to change
Autonomy
Freedom to fail
INTER
NA
L
![Page 96: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/96.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Nobody counts the number of ads you run; they just remember the impression you make.
– Bill Bernbach, advertising pioneer and founder of DDB
An EXEMPLARY
MARKETING RESEARCH
will definitely result to an
EXCELLENT CUSTOMER SATISFACTION
![Page 97: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/97.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Researchand Forecasting Demand
MARKMASubmitted to Prof. de Ungria
Rhea G. Jardin
April 27, 2012
![Page 98: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/98.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Characteristics of good Marketing Research1. Scientific method
2. Creativity
3. Multiple research methods
4. Accurate model building
5. Cost-benefit analysis
6. Healthy skepticism
7. Ethical focus
1. Marketing Research
![Page 99: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/99.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
A. Short-term results1. Sales turnover
2. Shareholder value
B. Changes in brand equity3. Customer awareness, attitudes and behaviors
4. Market share
5. Price premium
6. Number of complaints
7. Distribution and availability
8. Total number of customers
9. Perceived quality, loyalty and retention
2. Marketing Metrics
![Page 100: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/100.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Metrics
Sales turnover
Short term
Shareholder value
![Page 101: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/101.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Metrics
Brand Equity
Customer awareness, attitudes and behaviors
Market share
Price premium
Number of complaints
Distribution and availability
Total number of customers
Perceived quality, loyalty and retention
do-RE-mi.. so-la-TI - ON
![Page 102: Chapter 4 Conducting Marketing Research and Forecasting Demand](https://reader038.vdocuments.mx/reader038/viewer/2022102721/54bdeda34a7959073b8b458a/html5/thumbnails/102.jpg)
www.yourwebsite.com
Marketing Researchand Forecasting Demand
MARKMASubmitted to Prof. de Ungria
Rhea G. Jardin
April 27, 2012