chapter 3 underlying financial models and...
TRANSCRIPT
CHAPTER 3UNDERLYING FINANCIAL MODELS AND ENVIRONMENT
This chapter provides detailed information concerning the specific underlying models and environmental conditions of a FinGame company. The game adopts many common financial models for determining revenues, costs, and valuation. The student manual provides more general information on the affecting factors or leaves the student to seek information from the game to verify the underlying relationships that are specified in this chapter.
Information on the underlying models and conditions should not be directly revealed to the students. It detracts from the aims of the gaming situation. Information on the underlying models is presented in this chapter primarily to facilitate the instructor’s understanding of the game. False notions that students often form in their more informationconstrained situation can then be more easily dispelled.
Many of the more mechanical operating conditions and rules that are not directly connected with an understanding of the major underlying financial models and environmental conditions are given in Chapter 4 of the student manual.
ECONOMIC INDICATORSThe economic indicator is a variable representing the general business condition. As the indicator increases, the general market conditions the firm faces improve. The base index has a norm value of 100 and can take on values between 0 and 200. The items affected by the indicator and the nature of the effect are now described. The actual values of the dependent variables for different index numbers are available from the instructor’s online account, pages 7–8.
Unit Sales Demand
The actual demand, Da, is derived from the given quarter’s economic indicator, I, and a randomly generated demand variation, M:
(31) Da = 970.75I + 616M.
The random number varies from zero to one. This last factor is added to increase students’ difficulty in determining the exact multiplier. If it could be derived, they could potentially perfectly forecast the economic indicator. By the end of the game, students should still be able to estimate demand quite accurately without knowing the exact nature of the intrinsic equation. The unit demand is not affected by past decisions of any or all the companies. There is also no interaction in the determination of the price of the product.
29
Sales Price of Product
The product has a normal actual price of $100. A constant multiplier is applied to the economic indicator in deriving an addition to or subtraction from the norm price of the product. The quarterly market unit price of product, Pu, is positively correlated to the economic indicator:
(32) Pu = ($100 + $.33[I1 – 100])(1 + .5INFS)
where INFS is the sum of all prior quarters and the current quarterly inflation rate. The instructor has the option of suppressing this price and substituting his or her own price. For example, by giving the students a price either below variable outofpocket costs or between full absorption and outofpocket costs, students’ knowledge of marginal costing can be tested. The instructor’s control of price is described on page 78 of Chapter 1.
Cost of Machinery and Plant
Both perunit production capacity of machinery and plant cost, Pc and Mc, are positively related to the next quarter’s economic indicator:
(33) Mc = I2(0.402 + 2.10R0)(1+ PINF)
(34) Pc = I3(2.803 + 9.2R1)(1 + PINF)
where R0 is an interest rate that will be derived in the next subsection and PINF is the sum of the inflation rates in the current and all prior quarters. As in the real environment, heavy capital goods demand, and thus prices, expand or contract in advance of the increase in demand for ultimate finished goods. This condition is incorporated into equation (34) by using the future period’s economic indicator, I3, to determine price of plant and I2 to determine price of machinery.
Students who determine this condition can gain a competitive advantage by using a longer time horizon in making decisions on machinery and plant. They will possibly purchase one period or more before the actual necessary purchase period. They would need to analyze the offsetting costs of greater initial unused capacity and lower initial costs.
Plant has a fixed order cost of $250,000 in addition to the variable cost per unit. This condition requires additional preplanning in determining the frequency and size of plant purchases. The order cost creates a decision environment where Economic Order Quantity (EOQ) analysis should be considered by the manager. An order of somewhat less than about 6700 units is generally undesirable even if an optimal safetystock level is forgone.
30
Interest Rates
Interest rates are also affected by the future period’s economic indicators. The base interest rate, R0, on a quarterly basis can be between 0.5 and 2.0 percent, before inflation, depending on the economic indicator. The function is
(35) R0 = INF + (.05 + .03[I4 – 100])/4
where I4 is the economic indicator four periods hence and INF is the inflation rate in the most recent completed quarter.
The base rate, R0, is the return rate on marketable securities and is also used as a base rate in determining many other interest rates. The other rates affected by the base rate include costs of shortterm loans, intermediate debt, longterm debt, preferred stock, and common stock.
The prior quarter’s inflation rate is used in equation (35) so that participants will enter their current decisions with known interest rates. The game treats new inflation as anticipated until the quarter of occurrence. The anticipated inflation is incorporated into financing costs, valuation, and shortterm investment returns. More information on the costs of these items is given in the subsection on “Costs of Funds and Valuation.”
PURCHASE OF DEMAND AND PRICE FORECASTSThe student can purchase forecasts of demand and price. The least accurate forecast has no cost. More accurate forecasts cost $30,000 or $75,000. With each forecast an estimate is generated for each of the next four quarters. The accuracy of the estimates decreases the further away the estimate. The reliability of the estimates is also directly related to the price paid for the forecast. The estimates are uniform random variables that are within a specific percentage distance, plus or minus, from the actual demand. Table 3.1 indicates the percentage ranges. The price percentage range variations are onefourth of the ranges indicated in Table 3.1. Thus, both unit price and unit demand estimates can be used to determine an estimate of the markets demand and supply curve equilibrium actual demand and price, where unit price estimates are four times more accurate than unit demand estimates.
Table 3.1Maximum Percentage Variation of Estimates
of Demand from ActualFuture Forecast Accuracy LevelQuarter Low Medium High
(free) ($30,000) ($75,000)
1 5 3 22 10 6 43 15 10 64 20 12 8
31
STUDENT SPECIFICATION OF PRODUCT PRICENormally, the price of the product is determined within the game. An extra dimension is added to the game by allowing the student specification of price. When price is specified, the unit market demand for the product is variable and inversely related to the student’s stated price. The inelastic function determining the demand, Dm, induced by a management specified price, Pm, is
(36a) Dm = Da($200 – Pm)/($200 – Pu),
where Da and Pu are the actual demand and price that would exist if the student pricing option is not used. For the elastic demand function
(36b) Dm = Da(Pu + $45 – Pm)/$45.
It is recommended that students should not have the price option at the beginning of the game. This is the case even when advancedlevel students use the game. Successful decision making with respect to management controlled product pricing requires substantial production, contribution margin, and pricedemand elasticity analysis. The effort and time required in these areas will be substantial and will detract from the more central financial decisionmaking skills needed early in the game.
After competence is demonstrated in the major financial decisionmaking areas, the student price option can be added. This will maintain interest and increase student knowledge in analytical areas that are more closely related to the areas of production and pricing. The procedure for selecting either the elastic or inelastic demand function is provided in Chapter 1, in the Parameter Menu, page 7.
Advertising also has a positive impact on demand. The demand determined by the above conditions is further modified with advertising. Optimal advertising expense is near $400,000 when demand is elastic. When demand in inelastic optimal advertising is $0; appropriate price setting can maximize profits without advertising. This would be like monopoly pricing where there are no substitutes and an inelastic demand. Increases beyond these levels marginally add insufficient demand to justify the added advertising expense.
CAPITAL BUDGETING DECISIONSThe capital budgeting alternatives are generated from two underlying projects. Independent uniformly distributed random numbers are used to generate both differences in initial cost, overhead costs, and the unit labor savings for each of the periods of life of the project. The underlying projects were constructed so that some of the generated projects will not provide an adequate return. The percentage of acceptable projects is inversely related to the firm’s cost of funds.
LABOR AND MATERIALS COSTSUnit labor costs are related to the volume of production and inflation. The game has step decreases in marginal costs per unit up to a volume of 120,000 units. The Summary Sheet, Exhibit 4.3 of the student
32
manual, provides the schedule of labor costs at the different levels of production that comes with the game. There is a substantial increase in marginal cost per unit for any items produced in excess of 120,000. These conditions require production planning to minimize the cost of output when there are variations in demand through time.
Labor costs for all levels of production automatically increase by a 0.85 factor times the inflation rate. Thus, a 3 percent inflation rate would lead to a 2.55 percent increase in current and all future labor costs.
Material costs are constant; they are not functionally related to any environmental or firm variables except inflation. The instructor has direct control of the perunit material costs; they can be changed each quarter. The changes are made with the Parameter Change Menu, page 7.
A factor of 0.75 is used times the inflation rate to adjust material costs to reflect inflation. Thus, a 3 percent inflation rate for one quarter leads to a permanent materials cost increase of 2.25 percent.
LABOR STRIKEThe labor strike is a special option initiated by the instructor with the Parameter Change Menu, page 6. When the option is initiated with an advance warning (see page 6), a statement about the eminent possible strike appears on every student’s financial statements the quarter before the possible strike. The statement indicates that bargaining with the labor union is continuing and that the firm will possibly have a strike if they do not fully meet the union’s demand of a permanent $15 increase in labor cost per unit. A compromise offer of a $6 increase in labor costs can be entered by the student with a 30 percent probability of a oneperiod strike. The third student option is to refuse all union demands and accept a 60 percent chance of a oneperiod strike. An alternative “wildcat” strike option can be initiated by the instructor where all companies will have a strike affecting from 10% to 100% of the company’s intended production for the coming quarter.
The problem requires students to examine the possible tradeoff between opportunity losses with missed production and increases in costs throughout the game due to fulfillment of the union demands. The possibility of a strike also should affect the students’ prestrikedate production strategy.
INVENTORY CARRYING COSTSAdditional outofpocket costs are charged for inventory balances. There are three costperunit rates.
Table 3.2Inventory Carrying Costs
Cost per Unit Inventory Increment$1 1–2,000 3 2,001–7,0008 7,001 +
33
The three costs supplied with the game were constructed to make the holding of inventory greater than 7,000 units generally uneconomical. An exception occurs when surplus plant capacity exists that can be used to produce excessive unit inventories above the optimal safetystock level if less plant will need to be purchased now to come on line to meet demand two periods in the future. A three period inventory buildup is also justified if an additional plant purchase can be averted, for example if an addition is need both this and next period to meet estimated demand if inventory was restricted to 7,000 units. Students can easily miss these conclusions if they fail to consider the tradeoff between inventory carrying costs, additional costs of the funds invested in the inventory, contribution margin losses from stockouts and the perperiod marginal cost of the new units of plant capacity that would otherwise need to be added to avoid the stockout costs.
ACCOUNTS RECEIVABLES DISCOUNTSThe discount policy only affects receivables collections. Unlike the real world, there are no effects on the sales demand of the product from the effective product price reduction arising from a discount for cash paying customers. Student’s alternatives are to have no discount, a 1 percent discount, or a 2 percent discount. For low economywide interest rates (R0 described earlier) the following rules apply.
• With no discount, 33 percent of the quarterly sales are collected in the current period. This implies accounts receivable terms of net 60.
• With a 1 percent discount rate, 80 percent of the quarterly sales is discounted and collected in the same quarter. A discount is not taken on 20 percent of the receivables. As in the nodiscount case, 33 percent of this 20 percent is collected in the current period and 67 percent in the next quarter.
• The amount discounted is 92 percent with the 2 percent discount. Cash inflows are on the 92 percent discounted and 33 percent of the remaining 8 percent.
The above rules apply for any economywide R0 rate less than 1.875 percent per quarter with the maximum negatively sloped yield curve, and 3.333 percent per quarter for the maximum positively sloped yield curve. Note, R0 is not the shortterm rate; smaller coefficients are applied to R0 to obtain shortterm rates for positively sloped yield curves and larger coefficients for negatively sloped yield curves. The 1.875 percent and 3.333 percent rates thereby provide the same aftercoefficient adjustment shortterm rate of 3 percent, independent of the yieldcurve employed.
As the shortterm rate increase from 3 percent to 7 percent per quarter, the percentage of customers taking either the 1 or 2 percent discount declines from the percentages given in the above rules to 0 percent. Thus, at an effective annual cost of about 28 percent, all customers employ receivables as a source of funds and do not remit payment until the net due date.
One would expect part of the discounted receivables to be collected in the following period. For simplicity, it is assumed that all discounted receivables are collected in the current period. Students are notified of this condition in the text.
34
Other information on the percentage of collections with the 1 or 2 percent discount is not provided to students in the text. In lowerlevel courses, the information on the percentages of collection should be provided by the instructor. At higher levels, students should be told that by testing they can determine the information necessary for determining the optimal policy. They will have to derive both the differences in accounts receivables levels and the amount of sales discounted.
The tradeoff between decreased sales revenue and the decrease in carrying costs of the receivables will have to be considered in deriving the optimal discount policy. In the game, the only receivables carrying cost is the one for the funds invested in the receivables.
SHORTTERM LIQUIDITY MANAGEMENTCash, a shortterm investment, and a penalty cost loan are used to maintain a positive cash balance. The game will automatically make adjustments in shortterm investments and the penalty loan to assure the maintenance of liquidity if management fails to obtain a positive ending cash balance. Additional rules governing liquidity maintenance are provided in Chapter 4 of the student manual.
ShortTerm Investments
The factors determining shortterm investment return are provided in Chapter 4 of the participant’s text. The models are set up so that the company gets a fair market rate of return based on the currently faced economywide yield curve.
If students select a risk level other than zero, limited reward (return) is given for the unsystematic default risk that is perfectly random in the game. Students often recognize that the 40 percent downside and 45 percent upside limits on the highest risk investment (risk factor of 9) lead to an average 2.5 percent return premium in expected return. This seems like a sizable quarterly bonus and sometimes initiates largedollar investments at high risk. Students usually fail to recognize that as the shortterm investment approaches the firm’s total portfolio value, investment returns would be better estimated by a geometric mean. The expected return is then better measured at –6.73 percent ([{1 – 0.4}{1 + 0.45}]1/2 – 1), and an investor repeatedly committing his or her wealth to this experiment would be expected to lose wealth over time.
Shortterm investments are often a poor investment for other than temporary holding of excess funds. This especially holds with higher risk investments where there is high variability in returns. Since taxes must be paid on these returns, the aftertax return is often materially less than the company’s cost of funds.
Good forecasting can enable managers in the game to anticipate future changes in interest rates. The plant and machine cost models of equations (33) and (34) are based on future interest rates. Knowledgeable managers that recognize these lead indicators can take advantage of this condition and “arbitrage” on known interest rate changes. They must invest in longer maturity securities represented by
35
higher risk levels to capture these gains. In this case they have to recognize the downside tradeoff in accepting higher levels of the residual risk noted above.
Marketable securities can be either purchased or sold each period. Planning for cash flows and adjusting securities balances to accommodate the needs must be performed each quarter. Because of oversights, errors in statement preparations, or forecasting errors, a liquidity problem can arise where there is insufficient cash. If a positive marketable securities balance exists, the cash shortage will automatically be covered by liquidating a sufficient amount of marketable securities to cover the shortage. The marketable securities liquidated will be discounted by 3 percent to cover “transaction” costs. Thus, if c is the cash shortage, the marketable securities retired, Sm, would be
(37) Sm = 1.03c
The 3 percent discount serves as a penalty for faulty cash flow planning. The discount is recorded as a currentperiod interest expense. The negative cash balance can exceed the discounted marketable securities. If this occurs, all the marketable securities are retired at a discount, and a shortterm highcost penalty loan is issued to cover the remaining negative cash balance.
ShortTerm Penalty Loan
Penalty loans provide shortterm funds on a quarterly basis at an 8 percent quarterly cost to cover insufficient cash balances. This imposes a healthy beforetax 36 percent annually compounded penalty charge for poor liquidity mismanagement. Penalty loans are automatically retired in the next quarter provided that there are sufficient ending cash and marketable securities balances. The penalty loan continues to be replaced if cash deficits occur.
SELLING AND ADMINISTRATIVE EXPENSESSelling and administrative expenses include a fixed cost component of $1,000,000 and a variable cost component equivalent to 5 percent of total dollar sales. The expense is a current quarter cash outflow. Costs of purchased demand and price forecasts and advertising also enter this account.
ACCOUNTS PAYABLE BALANCESTen percent of the total of quarterly materials, labor, and other overhead charges enters the account, “Accounts Payable.” The balance in the account is paid in the next quarter.
COST OF FUNDS AND VALUATIONDebt and equity costs are affected by the economic indicator, inflation, the yieldcurve slope and risk. Business and financial risk are incorporated into the risk measure; additionally, debt costs are affected by the life of the debt issued.
36
Yield Curve on Debt Maturity
A multiplier that is an inverse function of the life of the debt issue is used. The multiplier is applied to the base interest rate, R0, from equation (35), in determining one of the components of the cost of a debt issue. The multipliers of the base rate are as follows:
Shortterm loans........................................1.5Twoyear intermediate term loan.............1.3Threeyear intermediate term loan...........1.1Longterm debt.........................................0.7This declining schedule makes shorterterm funding relatively more expensive. This is done to partially reward the students for the additional planning required with longerterm debt. The students should also obtain some extra return for accepting, through longerterm commitments, a decrease in the flexibility of their firm’s capital structure.
The “Yield Curve Slope” parameter is entered from the instructor account’s “Edit Simulation Environment,” page 6. The parameter takes on the values from “0” through”9” and can be used to change the yieldcurve slope of the business environment. A value of “1” provides the above schedule of multipliers. A value of “0” provides a range of multipliers from 1.6 to 0.6 while a “5” provides a flat yield curve with a 1.1 multiplier for all maturates. A value of “9” leads to multipliers with a range from 0.7 for the shortterm securities to 1.5 for longestterm securities and, thereby, the most positively sloped yield curve.
Debt Risk and Cost
Intraperiod Risk Adjustment. The first risk factor adjusts for intraperiod debt changes. It is used to constrain massive singleperiod debt offerings until the interperiod risk premium can be adjusted for the new higher level of debt.
The intraperiod adjustment is derived directly from the size of total new debt offerings. This cost increases by 0.125 percent for every million dollars of total new debt. For example, if the underlying quarterly rate of a threeyear loan was 2 percent and an offering of $6.5 million total new debt were made, the yield on the new issue of threeyear debt would be 2.75 percent (2% + 6 x 0.125%). The size of the offering risk premium, 0.75 percent in the example, is applied to all types of new debt, excluding penalty loans, issued during the quarter. This simple intraperiod adjustment enables the student to accurately estimate interest rates they will face with a given debt issuance while making massive debt offers in a single period too costly.
Interperiod Risk Adjustment. The probability of not obtaining a ratio of operating income before financial expenses to financial expenses equal to one is used in determining the interperiod risk component of debt costs. The next quarter’s debt issuance costs provided on the summary sheet will automatically incorporate the impact of the interest coverage effect. A more realistic environment would immediately incorporate the interest coverage effect in current quoted debt costs. The known issuance
37
interest rate environment makes offerings similar to underwritten offers where the company has guaranteed proceeds.
Derivation of the interperiod risk premiums. The times interest earned figure is calculated for the current period. The ratios for the last seven quarters are in each firm’s historical data (maintained in the company data file). The average, E, and the standard deviation, s, of the times interest earned ratio for the eight periods are calculated. An assumption is adopted that the ratios are normally distributed around E with a standard deviation of s. With this information, the probability that the firm will not obtain a one times interest earned can be calculated.1 In figure 3.1a, this is 16 percent, while in 3.1b, the probability is 80 percent. An annual risk premium between zero and 23 percent is generated depending on the probability obtained above.
1The one times interest earned is converted to a standardized random variable, z = (1 – E)/σ , where uz = 0 and σz = 1. A probability table is then used to determine the likelihood of a normal random variable taking a value less than z.
Figure 3.1Times Interest Earned Examples
The probability of default in a realworld situation is closely tied to the ability of maintaining an interestearned ratio greater than one through time. The inability to maintain this position will eventually lead to insolvency. Using an eightquarter or twoyear average, the firm’s position can deteriorate for some time before insolvency occurs. Again, this is similar to a realworld situation where a firm has several methods of acquiring emergency funds to temporarily avoid interest default.
Default risk premiums and debt maturity. The continued profitability of the firm is more important to longerterm debt than to shorterterm debt. Shortterm liquidity, and thus the ability to repay shortterm debt, is often not dependent on the profitability of the firm; yet longterm liquidity is only obtained through maintenance of profitability. Therefore, factor multipliers on the risk component are positively correlated to the life of the obligation. They are:
Shortterm loans....................................0.467Twoyear intermediate term loan.........0.538Threeyear intermediate term loan.......0.637Longterm debt.....................................0.778
The risk component of debt cost is derived by multiplying the risk premium times the appropriate factor multiplier.
38
1.5 1 .5 0 .5 1 1.5 1 0 1 2 3 4 5Times Interest Earned
a b
Business risk is implicitly included in the calculated costs of debt. The expected operating income and its variance determine the level of the business risk. Operating income is in the numerator of the times interest earned ratio. For example, an increase in the variance of operating income, with financial charges held constant, will result in an increase in the variance of the times interest earned ratio. This increases the probability of not obtaining a one times interest earned and results in a higher interest premium for risk. Likewise, financial risk increases the dispersion of expected returns and usually results in an increase in the risk of insolvency. Financial risk is also incorporated into the risk premium since the denominator of the times interest earned ratio includes total fixed financial charges. For example, if all other variables are held constant, as fixed financial charges increase, the probability of not obtaining an interestearned ratio of one increases, with a resultant higherrisk premium.
The total debt cost is the sum of the maturityadjusted economic component and the risk component. Even though the debt cost model may seem quite complex, the basic rules underlying it are easily understood by most students. The text material helps substantially in explaining the basic principles to the students without disclosing the exact nature of the underlying model.
Preferred Stock Cost and Valuation
Preferred stock cost is derived in much the same manner as debt cost. A multiplier from .7 to 1.5 (based on the yield curve) times 2.2857 times the base rate, R0, of equation (35), gives the economic component. The spread between the bond rate and preferred stock rate is constrained if the above rule results in a very high quarterly preferred stock rate.
Common Stock Cost and Valuation
A riskadjusted cost that is affected by the economic environment is used in the pricing of common stock. A riskreturn valuation model is used where an expected percent return on the security and a measure of the reliability of expected return are used to represent the return and risk component.
Equivalent to a capital asset pricing model is used. An equilibrium market condition is assumed where all equities are valued according to a single capital market line, r*r’1, of Figure 3.2, in riskreturn space. In the game, the total dollar net earnings after taxes to common shareholders for the current and last seven quarters are used as input into the common stock valuation model. The equilibrium value of all common stockholders’ equity is derived using a capital market line equivalent to r*r’1, of Figure 3.2.
Projected earnings estimate. The actual valuation procedure employs two future earnings estimates and a hybrid risk measure. The first earnings estimate, E1, is the average earnings derived from the current and last seven quarter’s earnings. The second earnings estimate, E2, is derived from a regression line. A bestfit ordinary least squares linear regression line is derived using time as the independent variable and the eight historical quarterly earnings figures as the dependent variable observations. Figure 3.3 provides a graphical example of the derivation of E1 and E2.
39
Figure 3.2
A RiskReturn TradeOff Function
Figure 3.3Generated Earnings Estimates
In the example, the historic input data for quarters 1 through 8 are used in deriving the two estimates for quarter 9. The final earnings estimate, E, is derived from the two estimates, E1 and E2, and the coefficient of determination, S, of the ordinary least square regression line,
(38) E = E1(1 – S) + E2S.
The earnings estimate, E, is directly used in the final valuation model. The above procedure places greater weight on the regressed earnings estimates as the reliability of the regressed line increases. Alternatively stated, as the reliability of the regressed estimated decreases, increasing weight is placed on the average historical earnings, little reliability can be placed in estimates varying from the historical norm.
Capacity shortages and inventory adjustments. The earnings estimate, E, is modified to recognize the future negative consequences of machine and plant shortages. An additional adjustment reflects the future estimated impact on earnings from either excessive inventory balances or shortages.
40
Risk
Return
r’1
σe
r* re
Earnings
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 quarter
E2
E1F1
F2
•
•• •
•
•
•
•
Measurement of earnings dispersion. A dispersion of expected returns measure is used as the measure of risk in the valuation model. The coefficient of determination, S, represents the percentage of variance in earnings that is related to time. It is a measure of the reliability of the regression line. Therefore, (1 – S) is used in the valuation model as the measure of risk.
Total common stock value. The derived return estimate, E, and the dispersion measure, S, of the eight total dollar earnings figures are used to obtain the total value of the common equity of the firm, V. The value is found by capitalizing by the base rate, r*, the total of the derived earnings estimate, E, less the multiplier, b, times the dispersion of estimate measures, (1 – S). In symbolic form,
(39) V = (E – bE[1 – S])/r*
where the value of an individual share is derived by dividing V by the total number of shares outstanding.3 The multiplier b is equal to 0.1R0 in the game. With a positive slope to the critical market
The above conditions are consistent with theory and empirical evidence. Business risk is included since variances in operating income directly determine the dispersion in expected returns of common stockholders. Financial risk is also included since the dispersion in common shareholders’ returns is positively correlated to the level of fixedcost funding used by the firm. The impact of financial leverage is also positively related to the company’s level of business or operating risk.
3The equation is equivalent to valuing according to the capital market line of Figure 3.2. From the equation above,
(310) VS)bE(1
VEr* −−=
(311)V
)S1(bE*rVE −+=
E/V is an expected percentage return for equity, re, and E(1 – S)/V, the dispersion of expected returns measure form equity, βe. We have
(312) r e = r* + bβ e,
where r* is the return axis intercept and b the slope of the line r*r’1 with respect to the risk axis; see Figure 3.2. As indicated in Figure 3.2, increased returns are required for increases in the variance of common shareholders’ returns.
41
The economy affects common stock value. The economic environment affects the valuation of common stock. The riskadjusted dollar returns of the firm that are in the numerator of equation (39) are capitalized by the base rate, r*, which is a function of the economic condition and inflation rate. Second, the multiplier, b, is positively related to the economic indicator. Both of these conditions have the effect of increasing both the intercept and decreasing the slope with respect to the return axis of the capital market line as the economic indicator improves. In Figure 3.4, sequentially higher economic conditions would be represented by the capital market lines that start at r 1
*, r 2*, and r 3
*. The conditions incorporated into the model allow it to approximate the potential realworld situation that is described below.
Opportunity costs. In this environment, the alternative opportunity for returns outside the firm increase with prosperity; thus, there is an increase in the required rate of return for any given security or investment. The increase required returns, through the shift to the right of the capital market line, could be caused by investment demand, Federal Reserve tightening policy, and expectations of higher inflation that often accompany more prosperous times.
Figure 3.4RiskReturn TradeOff Functions
Company investment decisions affect common stock price. Items that affect either operating income variations or financial leverage can affect share price. For example, a type B capital budgeting project may offer a rate of return equivalent to the firm’s cost of capital and yet not high enough to warrant purchase. This could occur if the heavy fixed costs charges from depreciation and increases in overhead costs cause an increase in the variance of shareholders’ dollar income. This would cause a shift to both a higher required percentage return rate and standard deviation rate. The cost of capital of the firm would increase and the capital budgeting project would not give an adequate return.
Therefore, decisions on applications of funds can affect the expected operating income and its variance with a resultant change in the risk and required return of equity holders. Similarly, decisions affecting the capital structure can affect the expected common stock dollar earnings, and, thus, the risk and required return.
42
Return
Risk
r*1
r*2
r*3
Dividend policies affect common stock price. Both dividend stability and payout rates affect share price.
Dividend payout policy. The required payout is inversely related to the growth rate of the company’s earnings stream. The following conditions hold:
• The growth rate is the average earnings percentage growth rate over the current and last seven quarters.
• The payout ratio is calculated with the average of the current and last three quarters’ dividends.• The optimal payout rate for annual earnings growth rates between 20 and zero percent is between
zero and 80 percents.• The penalty for incorrect decisions ranges from 0 to 25 percent of common stock price. If liquidating
dividends are being made, the penalty can approach 100 percent of stock price.• The penalty is directly related to the distance of the firm’s payout policy from the calculated optimal
payout rate. An error of 7.5 percent above or below the optimal payout rate is allowed with no imposition of a price penalty.
Example: Assume a 50 percent payout ratio is the optimal for the firm having an 8 percent annual growth rate in earnings. If the firm’s actual payout ratio is between 42.5 percent and 57.5 percent, the payout rate would be acceptable and no penalty would be imposed. If the actual payout is either above or below the 42.5 percent to 57.5 percent payout ranges, a penalty decreasing the value of the stock would be imposed. The penalty is greater the farther the percentage range is from the optimal,.
Dividend stability policy: The dividend stability model only considers a downward move in the current dividends. Increases in dividends are not viewed as violating the stability policy. A dividend decrease initiates the following possible repricing
• The adjustment is equivalent to the implied annual dividend cut capitalized at a 6 percent annual rate. For example, a $0.05 quarterly dividend cut would result in a share price decrease of $3.33 or ([$0.05][4])/0.06.
• Additionally, if the current quarter’s dividend divided by the most recent average fourquarterly earnings is more than 20 percent below the optimal payout rate, an additional penalty for loss of stability will be imposed that can be as great as 8 percent of the adjusted common stock price. This is in addition to the previous dividend payout penalty.
• If a firm’s payout is consistently more than 20 percent below its optimal, a special condition arises. In this situation, the dividends could be stable (i.e., not decreasing in given periods), and a penalty would still be imposed. In this situation, the penalty is, in effect, an additional penalty for a poor payout decision.
43
Substantial commons stock price change. The above rules can cause very large common stock price swings. Constraints within the program can dampen some otherwise huge price swings; but it is not unheard of to have a stock price go from $80 per share to $3.00 in one quarter. The same phenomenon, though not very common, occurs in the real world. During the bursting of the “dot.com” bubble around the year 2000, many stocks went from several hundred dollars per share to being valueless in a few months. In FinGame, drastic management shortcomings, like failing to produce units, can cause large price decreases while drastic improvements can cause share prices to multiply several times within a quarter. Again, even though possibly occurring, these are rare events in FinGame.
ISSUANCE, RETIREMENT, AND REPURCHASE OF DEBT AND EQUITYThe underlying models and conditions for issuance, retirement, and the repurchase of debt and equity influence the attainment and maintenance of the desired capital structure. Shifts in the costs of different debt and equity securities can force a revision in the desired capital structure. Therefore, the determination of costs given in a previous subsection should be considered in both establishing and modifying capital structure through issuance, retirement, and repurchase of debt and equity.
ShortTerm Loans
• Shortterm loans are issued for four quarters and are repaid in equal installments.• The loan is taken out at the beginning of the quarter with the first fourth repaid at the end of the
quarter.• Retirement is automatically made by the program.• There is not an option to retire before maturity.• The quarterly interest rate changes with the environment, times interest earned ratio and size of total
debt issues.• There is a new rate each period, not too unlike a prime rate. This new rate is applied to all shortterm
loans outstanding, not just to the new shortterm loans.
IntermediateTerm Loans
• A two or threeyear intermediate term loan is available.• The new loans are repayable in 8 or 12 equal quarterly installments.• The loan is taken out at the beginning of the quarter and repayment starts at the end of the same
quarter.• Retirement is automatic.• Retirement before maturity is also allowed without penalty or extra cost. The most recent not
currentlydue installments are retired first. Since the previous issues are aggregated, it is not possible to retire specific issues as one would be able to do in a real situation.
44
• The cost of new intermediate loans is at a current rate that is a function of the economic environment, a times interest earned factor, and a size of offering risk component (covered previously).
• An historical weighted average cost is used on previous intermediate issues.
LongTerm Debt (Bonds)
• Longterm debt has a life of 10 years.• A bond repayable in 40 equal quarterly installments, with the first installment due in the quarter of
issuance.• There is a $50,000 flotation cost every time bonds are issued. This condition constrains students’
issues of unrealistically small offerings. This condition also makes the solution and decision an underlying economic order quantity problem.
• Retirement is automatic.• Bonds are callable at an 8 percent premium specified on the student’s Summary Sheet. This premium
is constant throughout the life of an issue and throughout the game.• The most distant installments are retired first.• The interest rate on the new issue bonds is derived in a manner similar to intermediate debt,
according to the procedure outlined above.• A weighted average percentage cost is used on all previous bond issues. Dollar amounts of various
original issues coming due in a given quarter are aggregated; thus, there is no way to retire a particular issue. An “average” bond is retired.
Preferred Stock
• Preferred stock is perpetual; once issued, it remains outstanding until repurchased.
• The market price of preferred, Vp, is determined by capitalizing the constant dividend, Dp, by the current preferred stock’s required rate of return, rp.
(313) Vp = Dp/rp.
The company’s receipts have to be adjusted for flotation costs of $50,000, and initial 2 percent discount, and an addon 2 percent discount for every $1,000,000 of market value worth of preferred stock sold.
• Preferred stock is repurchased either at a call price or at current market price, whichever is lower.
• The call price per share is determined by multiplying the preferred share’s average book value per share times one plus an 8 percent call premium.
45
• Stock transactions take place at the beginning of the quarter. Thereby, dividends are paid only on the share outstanding at the end of the period.
To minimize the costs of funding, the fixed and variable flotation costs for bonds, preferred and common stock require students to sequentially fund with different types of issues rather than offer a small amount of each type every time they seek external funding. This condition is offset by the size of the offering risk premium. Therefore, an offering that is either too small or large can increase the company’s cost of capital. Managers need to consider the frequency of external funding, size of funding, and the maintenance of flexibility. Flexibility in further actions available to the manager is needed to react to specific conditions that might arise with changes in the economic environment or firm’s position.
Common Stock
Common stock can either be issued or repurchased.
Common Stock Issuance. The issuance is explained to the students as coming from a primary offering through an investment banker. Students supply the number of shares, Sn, they desire to offer. The model determining receipts per share is:
(314)nS000,50$
oS/nS5.005.1PR −
+=
The actual receipts per share, R, is determined through three factors.
• The first factor discounts the current common stock price, P, by 5 percent to adjust for flotation costs.
• The second factor makes receipts, R, a function of the size of offering, 0.5Sn/S0, where S0 is the total number of shares currently outstanding.
• The third factor is a $50,000 fixed cost per common share offering, represented by the last component of the equation.
The three factors included in the model are those thought to most influence the receipts on an offering. This above model is provided to students in their Chapter 4.
Repurchase of Outstanding Common Stock. Common stock repurchase is made by a tender offer. Students enter the number of shares, Sn, they wish to repurchase and the price, M, they will pay. Models within the game determine the price, R, that the shares would be bid to if Sn shares were demanded.
• As the number of demand shares, Sn, increase, the required price, R, increase.
• The size of the repurchase premium for a given proportion of shares repurchased is lower for shares issued by the manager since the start of the game. The objective of this condition is to enable
46
managers a less costly opportunity to correct for excessive common stock offering they have made in the past.
• The tender premium is inversely related to share price. In a real environment, many, if not most, lowpriced stocks are essentially outofthemoney perpetual call options. Asymmetric information held by managers that is released to the public would generally induce large security price changes. There is also a clear, and likely larger, asymmetric information phenomenon in the game. The game valuation models covered previously react more to what has happened and are not as efficient in capturing future company performance. This provides managers with capability to make large arbitrage gains in buying and selling their own common stock. This possibility is greatest when the stock price is very low and the managers know that the future company conditions are favorable for large valuation increases. The inverse tender premium to share price condition ameliorates, but does not fully dissipate the problem.
• If the tender price, M, is greater than the demand adjusted market price, R, the tender is exercised and the shares repurchased at a price of M.
• If R is greater than M, the tendered number of shares is calculated based on the tender price. Students do not have the ability to refuse shares tendered if the total number of shares requested by them is not tendered.
• For the number of shares not tendered, a $1 pershare charge for the shares not tendered is paid by the firm. This would cover the advertising, legal, and other costs involved in initiating the partially unsuccessful tender. The fees and transaction costs of a successful tender are covered by the pershare increase in the price they must pay over the current market price.
CONCLUSIONSThe set of models provides a simulation environment conducive to learning additional finance and general decisionmaking skills. Chapter 5 of the student text provides material on the realism of the game’s rules, conditions and models.
Lessaccurate information is provided in the Participant’s Manual than in this chapter to purposely require the participants to determine actual underlying models. With the lack of knowledge of the actual models, the students face a more uncertain, complex, and realistic decisionmaking setting.
Many of the rules and conditions in Chapter 4 of the Participant’s Manual were not reviewed in this chapter. These rules are fully described in Chapter 4 of the text and no benefit would be gained by their restatement. The instructor should review Chapter 4 of the text to gain a thorough understanding of how the underlying models just explained interface with the additional rules and conditions.
47
APPENDIXFINGAME REPORT REQUIREMENTS
The objectives of the FinGame report are to report on your historical performance in managing your company and to critically evaluate your performance. View this as a report to the board of directors where the board is outside controlled and you are the company’s CEO. They have indicated that they want honest reporting, even if the information is very negative. Based on your contract, you forfeit your job and all prior stock bonuses and options if evidence of deceptive reporting is found. (Your grade will also be adversely affected!) A size 11 font and a minimum of 1inch boarders (sides, top and bottom) and doublespaced (unless noted otherwise) are to be used in the written sections of the report (minimum minus 5points for violation).
Your cover letter of a maximum of one page singlespaced provides a succinct review of both your company’s performance and your management from the inception of the second phase of the game through the current quarter.
The next section should describe your current (end of game) overall strategy for managing the company in the future. This should include an evaluation of how your company is positioned to compete with other companies in your industry (this means other actual FinGame companies) in the next year and several years. This section is not to exceed two doublespaced pages or one singlespaced page.
Each of the remaining sections should not exceed one type written double spaced page in length, not including supporting exhibits and graphs. The sections include:
1. Cash management. This includes an evaluation of liquidity management with special attention to excess balances and stockouts and your evaluation on the quality of your management of an optimal cash balance. A supporting table contains (for quarters 2 through the end of the game) the actual quarter end cash balance, marketable securities balance and shortterm penalty loan balance (not penalty interest!). Special circumstances giving rise to given quarterly inappropriate balances should be described in footnotes to the table.
2. Capital budgeting analysis. A brief discussion on how you made these decisions is needed. A table is needed showing the actual decisions on A and B for each quarter of the game played. An appendix is required that demonstrates an actual computer based spreadsheet analysis, a print out of the numeric solution and a print out of the cell formulas. Briefly describe how you estimated the unit labor savings over the 8 quarters for an A project or 12 quarters of a B project.
3. Production strategy. Describe your combination of inventory and production strategies in this section. If the strategy changed during the game, indicate why the change was made and explain the objective of the new strategy. The discussion in this section needs to evaluate your
48
management of inventory and both machine and plant capacity over the game. A table contains unit inventory balance, machine capacity, plant capacity, units sold, units demanded and units stocked out for each quarter of the game. In addition, a production planning schedule, similar to the one covered during the course, is also required as an exhibit.
4. Unit pricing strategy. Describe and evaluate your pricing policy from quarter 6 when you received control of this variable. Provide additional entries in the table for item 3 that indicate actual market demand and market price and your demand (if available) and price.
5. Capital structure. This section contains a presentation of your strategy in determining both the debtequity mix and the maturity structure of your debt. The required table contains dollar debt and dollar equity issues [not balances] each quarter by type of security (shortterm, twoyear ... preferred, common). The debtasset ratios derived with both book value and market value of equity weights are required (d/[d + e]). The weightedaveragecostofcapital should also be presented for each quarter. A spreadsheet showing the derivation of the WACC is also required, a print out of the numeric solution and a print out of the cell formulas is required.
6. Dividend policy. Provide a discussion of both your dividend payout ratio decision and dividend stability policy over the game. A table contains the cash dividends paid per quarter and the quarterly payout ratio using a oneyear moving average of earnings in the denominator. Dividend payout ratio is to be defined by using the current dividend times four, all divided by the sum of the current and prior three quarters' EPS (for quarters 4 and greater).
7. Performance evaluation. Provide an analysis of your performance over the game. This analysis examines the performance of your company over all quarters and an analysis of your company’s performance relative to a sample of other companies playing the game for quarter 12. A table contains accumulated wealth, share price, ROI, ROE, and EPS per quarter over the game. A comparison and evaluation with the accumulated wealth, share price and EPS measure(s) of other companies is also required for quarter 12.
8. Discount on receivables. Describe with sufficient detail, so that someone else could replicate your analysis, how you derived (or would derive) the optimal discount policy for your company. Indicate the discount rate decision (in any case) for quarters 6 through the end of the game.
The above requirements result in a paper not exceeding eleven pages in length, exclusive of tables and the appendix. The objective is to be clear, forthright, and informative. The grading of the report is based on your adequate disclosure of required information, the clarity and completeness of your description of your management of the company, the quality of your actual management of the company, the accuracy of your critical evaluation of your management of the company and your adherence to the required limits on dialog described above. Note: Satisfying all of the rules on the report format, content requirements, supporting materials, and evaluation requests lead to higher grades.
49