chapter 10 applying population ecology: the human population and its impact 2009 2010 u.s....

Chapter 10Chapter 10Applying Population Ecology:Applying Population Ecology:The Human Population and The Human Population and

Its ImpactIts Impact

20092009 20102010U.S. 308,421,351 U.S. 308,421,351 310,948,175310,948,175World 6,794,314,166 World 6,794,314,166 6,888,995,0476,888,995,047

http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.htmlhttp://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html

http://www.census.gov/main/www/popclock.html

A father complained that his son’s allowance of $10 A father complained that his son’s allowance of $10 per week was too much. per week was too much.

The son replied, “Okay, Dad. How about this? You The son replied, “Okay, Dad. How about this? You give me a penny for the first day of the month,give me a penny for the first day of the month, 2 cents for the second, 2 cents for the second, 4 cents for the next, 4 cents for the next, 8 cents for the next, and so on for every day of the 8 cents for the next, and so on for every day of the month.” month.”

The father readily consented.The father readily consented.Who was more clever?Who was more clever?

What will the son’s allowance be on day 31?What will the son’s allowance be on day 31?

$.01$.01 $.02$.02 $.04$.04 $.08$.08 $.16$.16 $.32$.32 $.64$.64

$1.28$1.28 $2.56$2.56 $5.12$5.12 $10.24$10.24 $20.48$20.48 $40.96$40.96 $81.92$81.92

$163.84$163.84 $327.68$327.68 $655.36$655.36 $1310.72$1310.72 $2621$2621 $5242$5242 $10485$10485

$20971$20971 $41943$41943 $83886$83886 $167772$167772 $335544$335544 $671088$671088 $1342177$1342177

$2684354$2684354 $5368709$5368709 $10737418$10737418

Core Case Study: Is the World Core Case Study: Is the World Overpopulated?Overpopulated?

The world’s population is projected to The world’s population is projected to increase from 6.6 billion to 8.9 billion between increase from 6.6 billion to 8.9 billion between 2006 and 2050.2006 and 2050.

The debate over interactions among The debate over interactions among population growth, economic growth, politics, population growth, economic growth, politics, and moral beliefs is one of the most and moral beliefs is one of the most important and controversial issues in important and controversial issues in environmental science.environmental science.


Much of the world’s Much of the world’s population growth population growth occurs in occurs in developing developing countries like China countries like China and India.and India.

Figure 9-1Figure 9-1


Some argue that the planet has too many Some argue that the planet has too many people.people.

Some feel that the world can support billions Some feel that the world can support billions of more people due to technological of more people due to technological advances.advances.

There is a constant debate over the need to There is a constant debate over the need to reduce population growth.reduce population growth. Must consider moral, religious, and personal Must consider moral, religious, and personal

freedom.freedom.

HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH:HUMAN POPULATION GROWTH:A BRIEF HISTORYA BRIEF HISTORY

The human population has grown rapidly The human population has grown rapidly because of the expansion of agriculture and because of the expansion of agriculture and industrial production and lower death rates industrial production and lower death rates from improvements in hygiene and medicine.from improvements in hygiene and medicine. In 2006, the population of developed countries In 2006, the population of developed countries

grew exponentially at 0.1% per year. grew exponentially at 0.1% per year. Developing countries grew (15 times faster at Developing countries grew (15 times faster at

1.5% per year.1.5% per year.

Where Are We Headed?Where Are We Headed?

We do not know how long we can continue We do not know how long we can continue increasing the earth’s carrying capacity for increasing the earth’s carrying capacity for humans.humans. There are likely to be between 7.2-10.6 billion There are likely to be between 7.2-10.6 billion

people on earth by 2050.people on earth by 2050. What is the optimum sustainable population of the What is the optimum sustainable population of the

earth based on the cultural carrying capacity?earth based on the cultural carrying capacity?

Where Are We Headed?Where Are We Headed?

U.N. world U.N. world population projection population projection based on women based on women having an average of having an average of 2.5 (high), 2.0 2.5 (high), 2.0 (medium), or 1.5 (medium), or 1.5 (low) children.(low) children.


FACTORS AFFECTING HUMAN FACTORS AFFECTING HUMAN POPULATION SIZEPOPULATION SIZE

What is demography?What is demography?The study of size, distribution, and composition of The study of size, distribution, and composition of

human populations and the causes and human populations and the causes and consequences of changes in these characteristics.consequences of changes in these characteristics.

What rates increase a population?What rates increase a population?natality/births and immigrationnatality/births and immigration

What rates decrease a population?What rates decrease a population?mortality/deaths and emmigrationmortality/deaths and emmigration

Instead of using raw numbers, crude birth rates and Instead of using raw numbers, crude birth rates and crude death rates are used (based on total number crude death rates are used (based on total number of births or deaths per 1,000 people in a of births or deaths per 1,000 people in a population).population).


Average crude Average crude death and birth death and birth rates for various rates for various groupings of groupings of countries in 2006.countries in 2006.



The world’s 10 most The world’s 10 most populous countries populous countries in 2006 with in 2006 with projections in 2025.projections in 2025.


Declining Fertility Rates: Declining Fertility Rates: Fewer Babies per WomenFewer Babies per Women

The average number of children that a The average number of children that a woman bears has dropped sharply.woman bears has dropped sharply.

This decline is not low enough to stabilize the This decline is not low enough to stabilize the world’s population in the near future.world’s population in the near future. Replacement-level fertilityReplacement-level fertility: the number of : the number of

children a couple must bear to replace children a couple must bear to replace themselves.themselves.

Total fertility rate (TFR)Total fertility rate (TFR): the average number of : the average number of children a woman has during her reproductive children a woman has during her reproductive years.years.

Declining Fertility Rates: Declining Fertility Rates: Fewer Babies per WomenFewer Babies per Women

The replacement level to sustain a population The replacement level to sustain a population is 2.0 children.is 2.0 children.

In 2006, the average global Total Fertility In 2006, the average global Total Fertility Rate was 2.7 children per woman.Rate was 2.7 children per woman. 1.6 in developed countries (down from 2.5 in 1.6 in developed countries (down from 2.5 in

1950).1950). 3.0 in developing countries (down from 6.5 in 3.0 in developing countries (down from 6.5 in

1950).1950). The world’s population has more than doubled in The world’s population has more than doubled in

the last 50 years.the last 50 years.

What factors influence birth and fertility rates?What factors influence birth and fertility rates?

What factors have caused a decline in death What factors have caused a decline in death rates?rates?

What is life expectancy? What is life expectancy?

Average number of years a newborn can Average number of years a newborn can expect to live. expect to live.

What is infant mortality?What is infant mortality?

Number of babies out of every 1000 born Number of babies out of every 1000 born who will die before their first birthdaywho will die before their first birthday

Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Factors Affecting Birth Rates and Fertility RatesFertility Rates

The number of children women have is The number of children women have is affected by:affected by:

The cost of raising and educating them. The cost of raising and educating them. Availability of pensions. Availability of pensions. Urbanization. Urbanization. Education and employment opportunities. Education and employment opportunities. Infant deaths. Infant deaths. Marriage age. Marriage age. Availability of contraception and abortion.Availability of contraception and abortion.

Factors Affecting Death RatesFactors Affecting Death Rates Death rates have declined because of:Death rates have declined because of: Increased food supplies, better nutrition. Increased food supplies, better nutrition. Advances in medicine.Advances in medicine. Improved sanitation and personal hygiene. Improved sanitation and personal hygiene. Safer water supplies.Safer water supplies. U.S. infant mortality is higher than it could be U.S. infant mortality is higher than it could be

(ranked 46(ranked 46thth world-wide) due to: world-wide) due to: Inadequate pre- and post-natal care for poor. Inadequate pre- and post-natal care for poor. Drug addiction.Drug addiction. High teenage birth rate.High teenage birth rate.

Case Study: Fertility and Birth Rates Case Study: Fertility and Birth Rates in the United Statesin the United States

Nearly 2.9 million people were added to the Nearly 2.9 million people were added to the U.S. in 2006:U.S. in 2006: 59% occurred because of births outnumbering 59% occurred because of births outnumbering

deaths.deaths. 41% came from illegal and legal immigration.41% came from illegal and legal immigration.

Which countries contain the majority of the Which countries contain the majority of the world’s population growth?world’s population growth?

97% in developing countries growth rate 97% in developing countries growth rate almost 15times faster: India, China, almost 15times faster: India, China, Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, and IndonesiaIndonesia

What is the rule of 70?What is the rule of 70?

70/ % growth rate=doubling time in years70/ % growth rate=doubling time in years

US doubling time= 70/1US doubling time= 70/1

China doubling time=70/.7China doubling time=70/.7http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/informationGateway.phphttp://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/informationGateway.php


http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/informationGateway.php

Case Study: Fertility and Birth Rates Case Study: Fertility and Birth Rates in the United Statesin the United States

The The baby bustbaby bust that followed the that followed the baby boombaby boom was largely due to delayed marriage, was largely due to delayed marriage, contraception, and abortion.contraception, and abortion.


Fig. 9-7, p. 176

47 years

Homicides per100,000 people

Hourly manufacturing job wage (adjusted for inflation)

Living insuburbs

Homes withelectricity

Homes withflush toilets

High schoolgraduates

Married women workingoutside the home

Life expectancy

1.25.8

$15$3

52%10%

99%2%

98%10%

83%15%

81%

2000

1900

8%

77 years

Case Study: U.S. ImmigrationCase Study: U.S. Immigration

Since 1820, the Since 1820, the U.S. has admitted U.S. has admitted almost twice as almost twice as many immigrants many immigrants and refugees as and refugees as all other countries all other countries combined.combined.


The human population is approximatelyThe human population is approximately

a.a. 150 million150 million

b.b. 650 million650 million

c.c. 1.5 billion1.5 billion

d.d. 6.5 billion6.5 billion

e.e. 10 billion10 billion

Which of the following is not one of the world’s Which of the following is not one of the world’s top five most populous nations?top five most populous nations?

a.a. RussiaRussia

b.b. United StatesUnited States

c.c. IndonesiaIndonesia

d.d. BrazilBrazil

e.e. IndiaIndia

The country of Sudan has an estimated annual The country of Sudan has an estimated annual growth rate of 2.5%. At this rate of growth, growth rate of 2.5%. At this rate of growth, approximately how many years will it take approximately how many years will it take for the population of Sudan to double?for the population of Sudan to double?

a.a. 2222

b.b. 2828

c.c. 3535

d.d. 4242

e.e. 5050

World Air Travel

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010

Year

Bil

lio

n-P

asse

ng

er k

ilo

met

ers

Of the phenomena that correlate with the data above, the one that is the most direct consequence of the trend of air travel is

a. The increase in the spread of infectious disease

b. The increase in urban sprawl

c. The decrease in biodiversity

d. The increase in hypoxic aquatic ecosystems

e. The decrease in the total fertility rate of developed nations

The richest 1/5 of the world’s population The richest 1/5 of the world’s population possess approximately ___ times the possess approximately ___ times the income of the poorest 1/5, and the richest income of the poorest 1/5, and the richest 1/5 use 86% of the world’s resources.1/5 use 86% of the world’s resources.

a.a. 1010

b.b. 2020

c.c. 4040

d.d. 6060

e.e. 8080

POPULATION AGE STRUCTUREPOPULATION AGE STRUCTURE

The number of people in young, middle, and The number of people in young, middle, and older age groups determines how fast older age groups determines how fast populations grow or decline.populations grow or decline.

The number of people younger than age 15 The number of people younger than age 15 is the major factor determining a country’s is the major factor determining a country’s population growth.population growth.

Changes in the distribution of a country’s age Changes in the distribution of a country’s age groups have long-lasting economic and groups have long-lasting economic and social impacts.social impacts.


Populations with a large proportion of its Populations with a large proportion of its people in the preproductive ages 1-14 have a people in the preproductive ages 1-14 have a large potential for rapid population growth.large potential for rapid population growth.



32% of the people in 32% of the people in developing countries were developing countries were under 15 years old in 2006 under 15 years old in 2006 versus only 17% in versus only 17% in developed countries.developed countries.



Today, baby boomers make up nearly half of Today, baby boomers make up nearly half of all adult Americans and dominate the all adult Americans and dominate the populations demand for goods and services.populations demand for goods and services.


Age structure diagramsAge structure diagrams

http://http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.htmlwww.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html

http://www.census.gov/ipc/www/idb/pyramids.html


About 14% of the world’s population live in About 14% of the world’s population live in countries with stabilizing or declining countries with stabilizing or declining populations.populations.

Rapid population decline can lead to long-Rapid population decline can lead to long-lasting economic and social problems.lasting economic and social problems.

Death from AIDS can disrupt a country’s Death from AIDS can disrupt a country’s social and economic structure by removing social and economic structure by removing significant numbers of young adults.significant numbers of young adults.

Global again may help promote peace.Global again may help promote peace.


Age structure Age structure predictions based on predictions based on a medium fertility a medium fertility projection.projection.

The cost of an aging The cost of an aging population will strain population will strain the global economy.the global economy.



Some problems with Some problems with rapid population rapid population decline.decline.

Which of these Which of these problems do you problems do you believe are the most believe are the most important?important?


SOLUTIONS: INFLUENCING SOLUTIONS: INFLUENCING POPULATION SIZEPOPULATION SIZE

Demographic TransitionDemographic Transition: As countries : As countries become economically developed, their birth become economically developed, their birth and death rates tend to decline.and death rates tend to decline. Preindustrial stagePreindustrial stage: little population growth due : little population growth due

to high infant mortality.to high infant mortality. Transitional stageTransitional stage: industrialization begins, : industrialization begins,

death rates drops and birth rates remain high.death rates drops and birth rates remain high. Industrial stageIndustrial stage: birth rate drops and : birth rate drops and

approaches death rate.approaches death rate.


Family planning has been a major factor in Family planning has been a major factor in reducing the number of births and abortions reducing the number of births and abortions throughout most of the world.throughout most of the world.

Women tend to have fewer children if they Women tend to have fewer children if they are:are: Educated.Educated. Hold a paying job outside the home.Hold a paying job outside the home. Do not have their human right suppressed.Do not have their human right suppressed.


The best way to slow population growth is a The best way to slow population growth is a combination of:combination of: Investing in family planning.Investing in family planning. Reducing poverty.Reducing poverty. Elevating the status of women.Elevating the status of women.

SLOWING POPULATION GROWTH SLOWING POPULATION GROWTH IN INDIA AND CHINAIN INDIA AND CHINA

For more than five decades, India has tried to For more than five decades, India has tried to control its population growth with only modest control its population growth with only modest success.success.

Since 1970, China has used a government-Since 1970, China has used a government-enforced program to cut its birth rate in half enforced program to cut its birth rate in half and sharply reduce its fertility rate.and sharply reduce its fertility rate.

Fig. 9-15, p. 186

Total fertility rate

Percentageof world

populationPopulation

Population (2050)(estimated)

Illiteracy (% of adults)

Population under age 15 (%)

Population growth rate (%)

17%20%

1.1 billion1.3 billion

1.6 billion

IndiaChina

GDP PPP per capita

Percentage livingbelow $2 per day

Life expectancy

47%17%

36%20%

1.6%0.6%

1.4 billion

$5,890$3,120

4780

70 years62 years

2758

1.6 children per women (down from 5.7 in 1972)

Infant mortality rate

2.9 children per women (down from 5.3 in 1970)

India’s Failed India’s Failed Family Planning ProgramFamily Planning Program

Poor planning.Poor planning. Bureaucratic inefficiency.Bureaucratic inefficiency. Low status of women.Low status of women. Extreme poverty.Extreme poverty. Lack of administrative financial support.Lack of administrative financial support. Disagreement over the best ways to slow Disagreement over the best ways to slow

population growth.population growth.

China’s Family Planning ProgramChina’s Family Planning Program Currently, China’s TFR is 1.6 children per Currently, China’s TFR is 1.6 children per

women.women. China has moved 300 million people out of China has moved 300 million people out of

poverty.poverty. Problems:Problems:

Strong male preference leads to gender Strong male preference leads to gender imbalance.imbalance.

Average population age is increasing.Average population age is increasing. Not enough resource to support population.Not enough resource to support population.

HUMAN ASPECTS ON HUMAN ASPECTS ON NATURAL SYSTEMSNATURAL SYSTEMS

Excluding Excluding Antarctica, Antarctica, human human activities have activities have affect about affect about 83% of the 83% of the earths land earths land surface.surface.


HUMAN ASPECTS ON HUMAN ASPECTS ON NATURAL SYSTEMSNATURAL SYSTEMS

We have used We have used technology to alter much technology to alter much of the rest of nature in of the rest of nature in ways that threaten the ways that threaten the survival of many other survival of many other species and could species and could reduce the quality of life reduce the quality of life for our own species.for our own species.


1798 Thomas Malthus wrote Principal of 1798 Thomas Malthus wrote Principal of PopulationPopulation

- Said population grows exponentially, but food Said population grows exponentially, but food increases are linearincreases are linear

- Twice as much land would need to be farmedTwice as much land would need to be farmed- Recommended not feeding poor of Great Recommended not feeding poor of Great

BritainBritain- Charles Darwin used his idea to develop Charles Darwin used his idea to develop

theory that competition and survival of the theory that competition and survival of the fittestfittest

The country with the highest population density isThe country with the highest population density isa.a. AustraliaAustraliab.b. Great BritainGreat Britainc.c. ChinaChinad.d. SudanSudane.e. IndiaIndiaf.f. United StatesUnited States

CountryCountry Population Population millionsmillions

Total Land area Total Land area (million km(million km22))

Total annual Total annual electricity useelectricity use

AustraliaAustralia 144144 0.140.14 1.61.6

Great BritainGreat Britain 19.719.7 8.28.2 2222

ChinaChina 1,2951,295 9.69.6 150150

SudanSudan 7070 1.121.12 0.200.20

IndiaIndia 1,0001,000 3.293.29 6060

U. S.U. S. 300300 9.639.63 400400

The country with a population approximately three times that of the U. S. isThe country with a population approximately three times that of the U. S. isa.a. AustraliaAustraliab.b. Great BritainGreat Britainc.c. ChinaChinad.d. SudanSudane.e. IndiaIndiaf.f. United StatesUnited States






ChinaChina 1,2951,295 9.69.6 150150

SudanSudan 7070 1.121.12 0.200.20

IndiaIndia 1,0001,000 3.293.29 6060

U. S.U. S. 300300 9.639.63 400400

The annual global growth rate of the human The annual global growth rate of the human population peaked in the ____ and has population peaked in the ____ and has been declining ever since.been declining ever since.

a.a. Early 1990sEarly 1990s

b.b. 1950s1950s

c.c. 1960s1960s

d.d. Late 1990sLate 1990s

e.e. Early 2000sEarly 2000s

A country with ____ is not expected to grow A country with ____ is not expected to grow quickly in the near future.quickly in the near future.

a.a. A pyramid-shaped age-structure diagramA pyramid-shaped age-structure diagram

b.b. High female literacyHigh female literacy

c.c. A female to male ratio 1.2 to 1A female to male ratio 1.2 to 1

d.d. Growing industrializationGrowing industrialization

e.e. Many developing regionsMany developing regions

America’s age structure diagram ____America’s age structure diagram ____

a.a. Looks like a pyramidLooks like a pyramid

b.b. Reflects unequal distribution of males and Reflects unequal distribution of males and females at most age groupsfemales at most age groups

c.c. Reflects a baby boom” in the early 1980sReflects a baby boom” in the early 1980s

d.d. Reflects an aging populationReflects an aging population

e.e. Reflects a population with a high growth Reflects a population with a high growth raterate

Which of the following is a true statement about the Which of the following is a true statement about the total fertility of a society?total fertility of a society?

a.a. The total fertility of a society is the difference The total fertility of a society is the difference between the crude birth rate and the crude death between the crude birth rate and the crude death raterate

b.b. The total fertility of a society is the number of The total fertility of a society is the number of children necessary for a couple to replace children necessary for a couple to replace themselves in the next generationthemselves in the next generation

c.c. The total fertility of a society is negatively The total fertility of a society is negatively correlated with the average education of women correlated with the average education of women

d.d. The total fertility of a society is positively The total fertility of a society is positively correlated with the number of women of child-correlated with the number of women of child-bearing age bearing age

e.e. The total fertility of a society decreases as the The total fertility of a society decreases as the society progresses through the demographic society progresses through the demographic transitiontransition

If a population roughly doubles in the course of If a population roughly doubles in the course of 50 years, its growth rate would be close to 50 years, its growth rate would be close to ____%____%

a.a. 1.51.5

b.b. 2.52.5

c.c. 55

d.d. 2020

e.e. 2525

As a country goes through the demographic As a country goes through the demographic transition, the greatest rate of population transition, the greatest rate of population growth takes place during which phase?growth takes place during which phase?

a.a. The preindustrialThe preindustrial

b.b. The pretransitionalThe pretransitional

c.c. The transitionalThe transitional

d.d. The industrialThe industrial

e.e. The post industrialThe post industrial

Two useful indicators of overall health in a Two useful indicators of overall health in a country or region arecountry or region are

a.a. Birth rate and death rateBirth rate and death rate

b.b. Replacement level fertility rate and total Replacement level fertility rate and total fertility ratefertility rate

c.c. Life expectancy and infant mortality rateLife expectancy and infant mortality rate

d.d. Life expectancy and death rateLife expectancy and death rate

e.e. Population growth rate and Birth ratePopulation growth rate and Birth rate

Which of the following is the best description of a Which of the following is the best description of a population that has a stable age distribution?population that has a stable age distribution?

a.a. A large population that is growing at a constant A large population that is growing at a constant raterate

b.b. A large population with a negative growth rateA large population with a negative growth rate

c.c. A population that is in the early stages of logistic A population that is in the early stages of logistic population growthpopulation growth

d.d. A growing population in which the proportions of A growing population in which the proportions of individuals in the different age classes remain individuals in the different age classes remain constantconstant

e.e. A small population that has not yet achieved A small population that has not yet achieved exponential growth exponential growth

It has recently been estimated that the growth in world It has recently been estimated that the growth in world population has slowed in the past decade. Despite population has slowed in the past decade. Despite this trend, environmentalists remain concerned this trend, environmentalists remain concerned about the environmental impact of world about the environmental impact of world population, primarily becausepopulation, primarily because

a.a. The standard of living is increasing in many The standard of living is increasing in many developing countries, leading to an increased per developing countries, leading to an increased per capita use of natural resourcescapita use of natural resources

b.b. People are living longer in developed nations, People are living longer in developed nations, putting a strain on the economies of those putting a strain on the economies of those countriescountries

c.c. Life expectancy is still decreasing in Africa due to Life expectancy is still decreasing in Africa due to AIDSAIDS

d.d. The standard of living is poor in many developing The standard of living is poor in many developing countries, leading to deprivation and sufferingcountries, leading to deprivation and suffering

e.e. Fertility is falling due to exposure to endocrine Fertility is falling due to exposure to endocrine disruptors released into the environment disruptors released into the environment

Annually, the per capita electricity usage in Sudan is approximately what percent of the Annually, the per capita electricity usage in Sudan is approximately what percent of the per capita electricity usage of the U. S.?per capita electricity usage of the U. S.?

a.a. 0.10.1b.b. 0.40.4c.c. 11d.d. 22e.e. 1010






ChinaChina 1,2951,295 9.69.6 150150

SudanSudan 7070 1.121.12 0.400.40

IndiaIndia 1,0001,000 3.293.29 6060

U. S.U. S. 300300 9.639.63 400400

chapter 10 applying population ecology: the human population and its impact 2009 2010 u.s....

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