changing climate in the midwest
TRANSCRIPT
Changing Climate in the Midwest
Dennis TodeyDirector, Midwest Climate Hub
National Laboratory for Agriculture and the Environment1015 N. University Blvd
Ames, Iowa 50011515-294-2013
…not just temperature and precipitation
Regional Climate Hubs are providing Information and Tools to Decision Makers to Build Resilience to climate variability.
The Climate Hubs
Midwest Climate Hub
Topics
• Basic climatology• Climate change drivers• Climate changes in the region• Impacts/Projections• A little about this season (time permitting)
Climate• Climate Variability is not going away– El Nino-Southern Oscillation (El Nino/La Nina cycle)
will continue to be a factor on North American climate in the future• Although there is not a strong correlation for South Dakota
– It is abnormal to be normal… even though the “normals” have changed, rarely are conditions ever normal
– Cycles of wet and dry, hot and cold, will continue on interannual to decadal scales
7http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
Greenhouse warmingCarbon dioxide (CO2)Water (H2O)Ozone (O3)Methane (CH4)Chloro-florocarbons (CFCs)Nitrous oxide (N2O)
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
CLIMATE CHANGES IMPACTING AGRICULTURE
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
The frost-free season length, defined as the period between the last occurrence of 32°F in the spring and the first occurrence of 32°F in the fall, has increased in each U.S. region during 1991-2012 relative to 1901-1960. Increases in frost-free season length correspond to similar increases in growing season length. (Figure source: NOAA NCDC / CICS-NC).
Longer growing seasonEarlier spring (confounded)Later fall
• More in larger events
• Still have smaller events
• Erosion, effective precip, etc.
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
Hardiness Zone Changes
https://www.arborday.org/media/mapchanges.cfm
State and Regional T and P Trends
• http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/time-series/us • Check out your locations• Variabilities in seasons and trends• Based on ~120 years of data
Summer and Fall biggest increases in Ohio
Other seasons less overall change
Winter Spring
Summer AutumnTemperature
Summer and Fall biggest increases in Ohio
Other seasons less overall change
Winter Spring
Summer AutumnPrecipitation
Summer temperature increase mostly in overnight lows
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag
Increasing Moisture in the Atmosphere
Thanks to Deke Arndt and Chris Fenimore (NOAA-NCEI)
Increasing Moisture in the Atmosphere
• Complicated issues– Warmer nights/not as warm days– Still high heat index and stressful conditions-little
evening relief– Changing disease potential– Adds to livestock stresses
Changes
• Complex – not just overall warming• Precipitation changes• Changes during year• Max/min• Locational
Climate Change: Abiotic
• Rising temperature– Increasing growing season lengths
• Greater variability of temperature– Higher night time lows– Extreme swings over short time periods– Periods of extreme heat, cold– Timing of frost events
Abiotic Impacts
Animal stress
IR-30 Rice Response to Temperature
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4
8
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20 25 30 35 40 45Mean Temperature, C
Bio
mas
s or
Yie
ld, M
g/ha
Biomass-330Biomass-660Yield-330Yield-660
Plant stress: yield
Pollinators?
Erosion
20015010050-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
Accumulated Degree Days >41F January 1 to Budbreak
Western New York Yield Variation bu/acreabove/below Average Poor
Pollination Year
Western New York Region Apple Yields
Pollination
Water qualityAir quality Food quality
Access to fieldsPlanting datesSoil temperature
Water
Too much, too fast?
Drought
Ground water & soil moisture recharge??
Beneficial Impacts: Biotic
2000199019801970196019501940-30
-20
-10
0
10
Year
Coldest WinterLowTemp ÞF
Geneva Weather Data
Critical TempVine Damage
Increased concentrations of phenolic compounds
Biotic Impacts• Changing habitats• Enhanced CO2 fertilization
Weeds, vines, invasive plantsInsectsPathogensAnimals
Herbicide effectiveness??
Cheatgrass fire hazard?
Nutrient poor forage?
C:N ratio + lodging?
FUTURE CHANGES
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
http://nca2014.globalchange.gov/
www.AgClimate4U.org
Choice of Cycle
OUTLOOK 2017A little bit about this year…
www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/Drought/
• Drought conditions have eased in CA and southeast– increasing some Midwest
• Watch southeast IA – dryness on par with 1988 there.
Modeled Soil MoistureNational Land Data Assimilation System
www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/nldas/drought/
Pacific SST Anomalies
Cold SSTs disappearing – end of La Niña in sight
Outlooks – What can you use?
• El Niño/La Niña – SSTs in general• Computer models• Trends
• Current conditions – for potential impacts
ENSO Probabilistic Forecast
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/
• Weak La Niña continues• Expected to transition to ENSO neutral by February
Seasonal Outlook for Mar-April-MayNWS Climate Predication Center
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/long_range/seasonal.php?lead=1
Computer models
Two computer model summaries• Both lean slightly dry into summer
(MJJ)• Not a great amount of skill• Something we should continue to
watch
Summary• La Niña is disappearing – little impact on
growing season with small chance El Niño• Summer likely leans a little warm, Overall
trend – low temperatures• Will have to watch computer model
development on dryness• No other major issues appearing in Corn Belt
Where to go for information?
Keeping Up-to-Date with the Midwest Climate Hub
Visit the Climate Hubs Websitewww.usda.gov/climatehubs
**Get on the Midwest Climate Hub Email list
Midwest and Great Plains Climate-Drought Outlook15 September 2016
Virga near Huron SD – Author Photo
Photo taken Feb 19, 2013
https://www.drought.gov/drought/dews/midwest/reports-assessments-and-outlooks
For more Information on the Midwest Climate Hub
Charlene Felkley, Coordinator515-294-0136
Dennis Todey, Director515-294-2013
Erica Kristner, Fellow515-294-9602
National Laboratory for Agriculture and the EnvironmentAttn: Midwest Climate Hub
1015 N University BlvdAmes, Iowa 50011-3611
Midwest Climate Hub
@dennistodey
The Need for Climate Hubs
• Increasing climate variability• An increase in number and intensity of
extreme events • Changing trends in climate and weather• Added stress that to agriculture and the
natural resources
The More you Know…Information Leads to Action
Midwest Climate Hub:Vulnerabilities in the Midwest
Link actionable information and users together to protect and enhance the natural resources of soil, water, and air.
Integrate information to deliver solutions to producers through a variety of outlets
Vision and Mission of Climate Hubs
VisionAgricultural production and natural resources maintained and
strengthened under increasing climate and environmental change
Mission1. Develop and deliver science-based, region-specific information and
technologies to agricultural and natural resource managers;2. enable climate-smart decision-making; and 3. direct land managers to USDA agency programs and regional partners to
build resilience to climate change.
Midwest Climate Hub:Objectives
1. Assemble research information on crop and livestock production systems across the Midwest to determine their response to weather and climate variation;
2. Assemble research information on soil and water resources of the Midwest to determine the natural resource response to weather and climate variation;
3. Conduct stakeholder meetings with different commodity groups to gather information on their potential use of weather and climate information in agricultural decision making;
4. Partner with research, education and extension to develop strategies for the identification of adaptation tools and delivery of information to producers and agribusiness across the Midwest; and
5. Provide information to producers which will increase climate resilience of agricultural systems across the Midwest.
Midwest Climate Hub:Partners
• NRCS• FSA• APHIS• RMA• NCAR/NOAA• NASA• Ag Expt Stations• Cooperative Extension Service• Crop Consultants• Commodity organizations • Soil and Water Conservation Districts• …And Many Others
Midwest Climate Hub:Increasing the efficiency of Information Flow
Midwest Climate Hub
Federal Partners (
NOAA,
DOI, NASA, D
OE)
USDA Intramural & Extramural
Research
(ARS/FS/ERS/NRCS/NIFA)
USDA Se
rvice
Agency
Partners
(NRCS,
RD, FSA
)Agricultural Experiment
Stations
Cooperative
Extension & eXtension
USDA Research
Agencies
Servi
ce age
ncy progra
ms & st
aff
State Climatologists