Authors: Adrián Regos1*, Manuela D’Amen2, Gerard Bota1, Antoine Guisan2,3 & Lluís

Brotons1

Institutions: 1CEMFOR-CTFC (Centre Tecnològic i Forestal de Catalunya), Solsona, Spain.2University of Lausanne, Department of Ecology and Evolution (DEE), Lausanne,

Switzerland. 3Institute of Earth Surface Dynamics, Geopolis, University of Lausanne, 1015

Lausanne, Switzerland.

*E-mail: adrian.regos@ctfc.es

Introduction

Wildland fires are a major component of disturbance regimes in Mediterranean-type ecosystems worldwide. Current fire management policies will be

challenged in the future and new alternatives strategies will be appealed so as to minimize the increasing impact of large fires. However, it is still

uncertain how these alternative fire management strategies could affect biodiversity, especially in a climate change context.

The Ortolan bunting

The Ortolan bunting (Emberiza hortulana) is an open habitat, early-succession bird

species typically found in montane and subalpine meadows, open shrublands, as

well as farmland, with a strong preference for recently burnt areas.

Flowchart for the methodology

Occurrence data for the species at two different spatial

extents and resolutions: 1) European level at 50-km

resolution from the EBCC Atlas of European Breeding Birds

and 2) Catalan level at 1-km resolution from the CBBA the

Catalan Breeding Bird Atlas

Bird data

Scenario Description

BioFS + A2 Forest harvesting in optimal areas from an environmental and economic viewpoint (~ 39,000 annually extracted) + climate trend according to the A2a IPCC-SRES climate scenario.

BioFS + B2 Forest harvesting in optimal areas from an environmental and economic viewpoint (~ 39,000 annually extracted) + climate trend according to the B2a IPCC-SRES climate scenario.

BioFS + A2 plus Forest harvesting in optimal areas from a logistic and economic viewpoint (~ 62,000 annually extracted) + A2a

BioFS + B2 plus Forest harvesting in optimal areas from a logistic and economic viewpoint (~ 62,000 annually extracted) + B2a

UnFS + A2An opportunistic fire suppression strategy based on low decreasing active firefighting efforts in controlled “mild” fire weather conditions to provide further firefighting opportunities in

adverse years + A2a

UnFS + B2An opportunistic fire suppression strategy based on low decreasing active firefighting efforts in controlled “mild” fire weather conditions to provide further firefighting opportunities in

adverse years + B2a

UnFS + A2 plusAn opportunistic fire suppression strategy based on high decreasing active firefighting efforts in controlled “mild” fire weather conditions to provide further firefighting opportunities in

adverse years + A2a

UnFS + B2 plusAn opportunistic fire suppression strategy based on high decreasing active firefighting efforts in controlled “mild” fire weather conditions to provide further firefighting opportunities in

adverse years + B2a

Base+ HighFS + A2 Strong active suppression corresponding to currently fire suppression levels + A2a

Base + HighFS + B2 Strong active suppression corresponding to currently fire suppression levels + B2a

NoFS + A2 No Fire suppression + A2a

NoFS + B2 No Fire suppression + B2a

Scenario design

Modelling framework

1. Climate-model at European level

2. Projecting and downscaling at

Catalan level

4. LULC-model at Catalan level

6. Integrative

Model

5. Projecting at Catalan level

7. Projecting Integrative model at Catalan

level

8 and 9. Applying thresholds and assessing distributional changes

3. LULC variables from MEDFIRE model

European scale climate

variables from 4 GCMs for

2000 and 2050 (A2A and

B2A-storylines)

•CCCMA

•CSIRO

•HADCM3

•NIESS99

MEAN VALUES

Optimal habitat suitability was modelled

using five widely-used modelling techniques

in an ensemble forecasting framework (R-

based BIOMOD2 package) (AUC >0.9)

Conclusions and recommendations

Our results showed that fire management policies in interaction with climate change have the potential to strongly affect the amount

of habitat suitability for open habitat dwelling species, such as Ortolan bunting, through shifts in historical fire regime. In particular, the

decrease of the area with optimal habitat suitability ranged between 59 and 82%, owing to land abandonment and natural succession

processes. Scenarios based on ‘let-burn’ strategies showed lower decrease (59%) than those wherein all fires are suppressed

(current fire suppression paradigm). Medium values were found under forest biomass extraction scenarios (70%).

We conclude that fire-conducted landscape dynamics should be explicitly included in conservation plans, especially in the face of

global change.

Predicted changes in habitat suitability for each scenario

Results

Vegetation dynamics for each scenario

Acknowledgements

Partial funding supporting this project was received from the EU BON project (308454; FP7-ENV-2012, European Commission), BIONOVEL

CGL2011-29539, CONSOLIDER-MONTES CSD2008-00040 projects and the TRUSTEE project (RURAGRI ERA-NET 235175).

Predicted changes in habitat suitability for each scenario