Projected Change in Working-Age Population, 2010-30Growth will slow almost everywhere. Most advanced economies face shrinking work forces, while many less developed countries face explosive growth. Europe’s working-age population is projected to decline by 10%, or nearly 50 million. Less developed countries are projected to see a work-force gain of nearly 1 billion, with about half of that occurring in Asia and nearly 40% in Africa.

Definition: Working-age population = 15-64Data Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision Medium Variant Forecast ©2010 Stanford Center on Longevity, http://longevity.stanford.edu

The Global Aging Program at the Stanford Center on Longevity focuses on the economic and political implications of longevity. The program specifically addresses the risks and opportunities of population age shifts around the world. Understanding the implications of these changes will be critical for effective policy making.

The Stanford Center on Longevity is working to transform the culture of human aging. The Center studies the nature and development of the entire human life span, looking for innovative ways to use science and technology to solve the problems of people over 50 and improve the well-being of people of all ages. To inspire change of this scale, the Center brings together the best minds in academia, business and government to target the most important challenges and solutions for older populations. The Center was founded by two of the world’s leading authorities on longevity and aging, Stanford professors Laura L. Carstensen, PhD, and Thomas Rando MD, PhD, and received its initial funding from Texas investor Richard Rainwater.

Adele Hayutin, Ph.D., Senior Research Scholar and Director of SCL's Global Aging Program, is a leader in the field of comparative international demographics and population aging. Dr. Hayutin combines broad knowledge of the underlying data with the ability to translate that data into practical, easy to understand language and implications. She has developed a comparative international perspective that highlights surprising demographic differences across countries and illustrates the unexpected speed of critical demographic changes. Previously she was director of research and chief economist of the Fremont Group (formerly Bechtel Investments) where she focused on issues and trends affecting business investment strategy. Dr. Hayutin received a BA from Wellesley College and a Master's in Public Policy and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley.

Global Aging ProgramStanford Center on Longevity

616 Serra Street, E Wing 5th FloorStanford, CA 94305-6053

(650) 736-8643http://longevity.stanford.edu/myworld

Change in Working-Age Population, 1990-2010Over the past 20 years, the fastest growth in working-age population occurred in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Worldwide, the working-age population increased by 40%, or 1.3 billion, with 95% of that growth occurring in less developed countries. Asia accounted for two-thirds of worldwide growth and Africa 20%.

Shrinking (-25% to 0%)Slow Growth (0% to 25%)Moderate Growth (25% to 50%)Too Fast to Absorb (50% to 100%)Dangerously Fast (> 100%)

Change in Working-Age Population, 2010-30

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Continued growth

Divergent patterns

Shrinking

2010-302030-50

Divergent work-force changes have strategic implications for economic activity.

Shrinking (-25% to 0%)Slow Growth (0% to 25%)Moderate Growth (25% to 50%)Too Fast to Absorb (50% to 100%)Dangerously Fast (> 100%)

Change in Working-Age Population, 1990-2010

Definition: Working-age population = 15-64 ©2010 Stanford Center on LongevityData Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision Medium Variant Forecast http://longevity.stanford.edu

Nigeria 86.3 54.3 51.6

Pakistan 109.6 62.9 51.5

Philippines 58.3 23.6 14.9

Egypt 53.4 20.7 11.8

Bangladesh 107.2 34.9 6.8

Turkey 51.2 11.3 -0.1

Indonesia 156.4 31.8 -3.8

Iran 53.6 10.7 -2.9

Mexico 72.5 13.3 -6.3

Vietnam 61.1 10.5 -0.9

S. Korea 35.3 -3.7 -7.6

India 780.6 241.1 76.3

Brazil 132.2 18.4 -13.4

China 973.3 9.9 -113.1

Russia 101.2 -17.0 -14.2

Argentina 26.2 4.8 1.2

Australia 14.5 1.4 1.3

U.S. 212.3 18.1 17.5

Canada 23.6 1.0 1.6

U.K. 40.9 1.2 1.8

Spain 30.8 0.7 -4.1

France 40.5 -1.1 -1.0

Netherlands 11.2 -0.7 -0.3

Italy 39.3 -3.0 -5.9

Germany 54.3 -8.1 -7.4

Japan 81.6 -13.0 -16.7

2010 2010-30 2030-50Absolute Change

(millions)Level

Percent Change

Slow growth, then shrinking

Continued butslow growth

Next 11

BRICs

Large Economies

POPULATION AGE SHIFTSWILL RESHAPE GLOBAL WORK FORCEApril 2010

Adele Hayutin, Ph.D. Director, Global Aging Program ahayutin@stanford.edu

Working-Age Population

These large emerging economies face divergent patterns of work-force growth. Russia’s working-age population has already been declining while China’s will peak in 2015.

2. BRICs

US

Argentina

Brazil

Mexico

Canada

SouthAfrica

Germany

Italy

Poland

Russia

Turkey

Indonesia

India

Japan

SouthKorea

China

Australia

Nigeria

Pakistan

Saudi Arabia

EU 27

Dem. Rep. of Congo

Chile

Philippines

VietnamEgypt

Colombia

UK

Singapore

Working-Age Population, Indexed to 2010Global Work-Force Change

Sweden

Working-Age Population (15-64) indexed to 2010 (2010=1.0)

Working-Age PopulationMillions Indexed

Country 1950 2010 2050 20502010

1. China 337.8 973.3 870.1 0.892. India 220.8 780.6 1,098.0 1.413. United States 102.2 212.3 247.9 1.174. Indonesia 43.9 156.4 184.3 1.185. Brazil 29.9 132.2 137.2 1.046. Pakistan 23.8 109.6 224.1 2.047. Bangladesh 25.2 107.2 148.8 1.398. Russia 66.7 101.2 70.1 0.699. Nigeria 20.3 86.3 192.2 2.23

10. Japan 49.4 81.6 51.8 0.6311. Mexico 15.0 72.5 79.5 1.1012. Vietnam 17.5 61.1 70.6 1.1613. Philippines 10.6 58.3 96.8 1.6614. Germany 45.9 54.3 38.7 0.7115. Iran 9.4 53.6 61.3 1.14

EU 27 246.4 333.4 279.8 0.84World 1,536.0 4,523.7 5,865.8 1.30

Several large countries (in bold below) will face smaller work forces by 2050.

15 Largest Work Forces, 2010

3. Beyond the BRICsAmong the “Next 11” emerging economies, only the youngest will face continued work-force growth. The oldest, South Korea, faces a steep decline in working-age population.

Data Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision Medium Variant Forecast ©2010 Stanford Center on Longevity, http://longevity.stanford.edu

By 2050, the worldwide working-age population is projected to be 1.3 times the 2010 level, an increase from 4.5 billion to 5.9 billion.

Iran

0

1.0

2.0

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

1. Large EconomiesAmong the large economies, only the US and the UK will see growth in working-age population. Japan and Germany face steep declines.

Bangladesh

Less Developed Regions

More Developed Regions

World

0

1

2

1950 20502010

Indonesia

South Korea

Pakistan

Mexico

Egypt

Nigeria

0

1.0

2.0

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

France

USUK

China

Japan

0

1.0

2.0

1950 1970 1990 2010 2030 2050

BrazilChinaRussia

India

Germany

Turkey

Dramatic changes in work-force size are occurring around the world. Working-age populations grew almost everywhere over the last 60 years. Due to declining fertility rates, many economies will see their work forces peak and level off or even begin to shrink within the next 40 years. Work forces in Germany, Japan and Russia are already shrinking. Projected declines in working-age population underscore the urgency of adapting labor policies to the new demographic reality.

NB: For these charts, working age is defined as 15-64. The UN projections used here assume migration continues at approximately current levels. Potential work-force size could be further expanded by increasing labor force participation rates at the traditional working ages or by expanding the definition of working age to include older workers.

Working-Age Population, 2010=1.0 Working-Age Population, 2010=1.0 Working-Age Population, 2010=1.0

Projected Change in Working-Age Population, 2010-30Growth will slow almost everywhere. Most advanced economies face shrinking work forces, while many less developed countries face explosive growth. Europe’s working-age population is projected to decline by 10%, or nearly 50 million. Less developed countries are projected to see a work-force gain of nearly 1 billion, with about half of that occurring in Asia and nearly 40% in Africa.

Definition: Working-age population = 15-64Data Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision Medium Variant Forecast ©2010 Stanford Center on Longevity, http://longevity.stanford.edu

The Global Aging Program at the Stanford Center on Longevity focuses on the economic and political implications of longevity. The program specifically addresses the risks and opportunities of population age shifts around the world. Understanding the implications of these changes will be critical for effective policy making.

The Stanford Center on Longevity is working to transform the culture of human aging. The Center studies the nature and development of the entire human life span, looking for innovative ways to use science and technology to solve the problems of people over 50 and improve the well-being of people of all ages. To inspire change of this scale, the Center brings together the best minds in academia, business and government to target the most important challenges and solutions for older populations. The Center was founded by two of the world’s leading authorities on longevity and aging, Stanford professors Laura L. Carstensen, PhD, and Thomas Rando MD, PhD, and received its initial funding from Texas investor Richard Rainwater.

Adele Hayutin, Ph.D., Senior Research Scholar and Director of SCL's Global Aging Program, is a leader in the field of comparative international demographics and population aging. Dr. Hayutin combines broad knowledge of the underlying data with the ability to translate that data into practical, easy to understand language and implications. She has developed a comparative international perspective that highlights surprising demographic differences across countries and illustrates the unexpected speed of critical demographic changes. Previously she was director of research and chief economist of the Fremont Group (formerly Bechtel Investments) where she focused on issues and trends affecting business investment strategy. Dr. Hayutin received a BA from Wellesley College and a Master's in Public Policy and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of California at Berkeley.

Global Aging ProgramStanford Center on Longevity

616 Serra Street, E Wing 5th FloorStanford, CA 94305-6053

(650) 736-8643http://longevity.stanford.edu/myworld

Change in Working-Age Population, 1990-2010Over the past 20 years, the fastest growth in working-age population occurred in Africa, the Middle East, and Asia. Worldwide, the working-age population increased by 40%, or 1.3 billion, with 95% of that growth occurring in less developed countries. Asia accounted for two-thirds of worldwide growth and Africa 20%.

Shrinking (-25% to 0%)Slow Growth (0% to 25%)Moderate Growth (25% to 50%)Too Fast to Absorb (50% to 100%)Dangerously Fast (> 100%)

Change in Working-Age Population, 2010-30

-40% -20% 0% 20% 40% 60%

Continued growth

Divergent patterns

Shrinking

2010-302030-50

Divergent work-force changes have strategic implications for economic activity.

Shrinking (-25% to 0%)Slow Growth (0% to 25%)Moderate Growth (25% to 50%)Too Fast to Absorb (50% to 100%)Dangerously Fast (> 100%)

Change in Working-Age Population, 1990-2010

Definition: Working-age population = 15-64 ©2010 Stanford Center on LongevityData Source: United Nations, World Population Prospects, The 2008 Revision Medium Variant Forecast http://longevity.stanford.edu

Nigeria 86.3 54.3 51.6

Pakistan 109.6 62.9 51.5

Philippines 58.3 23.6 14.9

Egypt 53.4 20.7 11.8

Bangladesh 107.2 34.9 6.8

Turkey 51.2 11.3 -0.1

Indonesia 156.4 31.8 -3.8

Iran 53.6 10.7 -2.9

Mexico 72.5 13.3 -6.3

Vietnam 61.1 10.5 -0.9

S. Korea 35.3 -3.7 -7.6

India 780.6 241.1 76.3

Brazil 132.2 18.4 -13.4

China 973.3 9.9 -113.1

Russia 101.2 -17.0 -14.2

Argentina 26.2 4.8 1.2

Australia 14.5 1.4 1.3

U.S. 212.3 18.1 17.5

Canada 23.6 1.0 1.6

U.K. 40.9 1.2 1.8

Spain 30.8 0.7 -4.1

France 40.5 -1.1 -1.0

Netherlands 11.2 -0.7 -0.3

Italy 39.3 -3.0 -5.9

Germany 54.3 -8.1 -7.4

Japan 81.6 -13.0 -16.7

2010 2010-30 2030-50Absolute Change

(millions)Level

Percent Change

Slow growth, then shrinking

Continued butslow growth

Next 11

BRICs

Large Economies

POPULATIONS AGE SHIFTSWILL RESHAPE GLOBAL WORK FORCEApril 2010

Adele Hayutin, Ph.D. Director, Global Aging Program ahayutin@stanford.edu

Working-Age Population