skcccempri.karnataka.gov.inskcccempri.karnataka.gov.in/reports/climate change... · allied...

Climate Change:Challenges and Solutions

ALLIED PUBLISHERS PVT. LTD.

New Delhi • Mumbai • Kolkata • Lucknow • ChennaiNagpur • Bangalore • Hyderabad • Ahmedabad

Editors

Proceedings of the National Seminar

Ritu KakkarK.H. Vinaya Kumar

O.K. RemadeviN. Hema

J. Cruz Antony

Funded by

Strategic Programmes, Large Initiatives &Coordinated action Enabler (SPLICE) DivisionDepartment of Science & Technology (DST)

Government of India

Climate Change:Challenges and Solutions

Organized by

Environmental Management and Policy Research InstituteBengaluru, Karnataka, India

ALLIED PUBLISHERS PRIVATE LIMITED 1/13-14 Asaf Ali Road, New Delhi–110002 Ph.: 011-23239001 • E-mail: [email protected]

87/4, Chander Nagar, Alambagh, Lucknow–226005 Ph.: 0522-4012850 • E-mail: [email protected]

17 Chittaranjan Avenue, Kolkata–700072 Ph.: 033-22129618 • E-mail: [email protected]

15 J.N. Heredia Marg, Ballard Estate, Mumbai–400001 Ph.: 022-42126969 • E-mail: [email protected]

60 Shiv Sunder Apartments (Ground Floor), Central Bazar Road, Bajaj Nagar, Nagpur–440010 Ph.: 0712-2234210 • E-mail: [email protected]

F-1 Sun House (First Floor), C.G. Road, Navrangpura, Ellisbridge P.O., Ahmedabad–380006 Ph.: 079-26465916 • E-mail: [email protected]

No. 25/10, Commander-in-Chief Road, Ethiraj Lane (Next to Post Office) Egmore, Chennai–600008 Ph.: 044-28223938 • E-mail: [email protected]

Hebbar Sreevaishnava Sabha, Sudarshan Complex-2 No. 24/1, 2nd Floor, Seshadri Road, Bangalore–560009 Ph.: 080-22262081 • E-Mail: [email protected]

3-2-844/6 & 7 Kachiguda Station Road, Hyderabad–500027 Ph.: 040-24619079 • E-mail: [email protected]

Website: www.alliedpublishers.com

© EMPRI 2018, Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions

We encourage the free use of the contents of this book with appropriate and full citation as given below: Ritu Kakkar, Vinaya Kumar K.H., Remadevi O.K., Hema N. and Cruz Antony J. (Eds.) 2018. Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions. Allied Publishers Pvt. Ltd., New Delhi, 318 pp.

The views expressed in this book are of the individual contributors, editors or authors and do not represent the viewpoint of EMPRI. Errors, if any are purely unintentional and the publishers or editors do not take any responsibility for the same in any manner.

This book is not for sale.

ISBN: 978-93-87997-00-4

Published and printed by Allied Publishers Pvt. Ltd. (Printing Division), A-104 Mayapuri Phase II, New Delhi-110064

v

Message

limate change is a major challenge for developing countries like India that face large scale climate variability and are exposed to enhanced risks from climate

change. The current development regime reiterates the focus on sustainable growth and aims to exploit the co-benefits of addressing climate change along with promoting economic growth. The future global climate model projection says that if the business as usual scenario gets continued, a global temperature rise of 3–4°C is inevitable. COP 21 has set a new mandate to reduce greenhouse gas emissions at global level to ensure that the increase in global average temperature does not exceed a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. A new paradigm has been created that demands changed practices at the global, country and local levels. It is time to debate on the challenges posed by climate change in India and understand how we can act and contribute to the mounting momentum to meet the interlinked global challenges of climate change and sustainable development. Science has an imperative role in the improvement of the understanding of the problems specific to regions and providing feasible technological solutions. The information with respect to climate change vulnerabilities is in possession of many knowledge institutions and there is inadequate coordination of all knowledge inputs for practical use. Reliable and detailed regional information, including current and future assessments of climate variability and change is essential in the design of effective strategies for adaptation to climate change On this backdrop, a national seminar on Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions was organized by Environmental Management and Policy Research Institute (EMPRI), Bengaluru.

C

vi Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions

Environmental Management and Policy Research Institute (EMPRI), functioning under the Department of Forest, Ecology and Environment has completed more than fifteen years of service to the state and has achieved many accolades in the field of Environmental management and policy research. As per the MoEF&CC guidelines, Karnataka State Government has designated EMPRI as the State Nodal agency for Climate Change in Karnataka to anchor the State’s future Scientific and Technical activities on climate change. The institute has been instrumental in formulating and implementing many policies towards bringing in sustainable and climate resilient growth in Karnataka. State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) prepared by EMPRI and accepted by MoEF&CC is the guiding document for climate change related action plans and programmes of the Govt. of Karnataka. During 2016, National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change (NMSKCC), Department of Science and Technology (DST) under the Strategic Programmes Large Initiatives and Coordinated Action Enabler (SPLICE) project approved the strengthening of the state climate change centre into a Strategic knowledge centre for climate change.

EMPRI in its endeavour to network with climate change knowledge institutions in India, organized a national seminar on “Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions” at its campus on 23rd January 2017. Prominent academicians, researchers and administrators participated in the seminar. The seminar facilitated debates on the challenges posed by climate change in India and development of feasible technological solutions for mitigation and adaptation to the diverse issues of climate change. EMPRI has prepared the lectures and papers presented in the seminar in the form of a book entitled, “Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions” with ISBN number for the use of academicians, students, researchers and policy makers. Hope this will be used by all as a reference for their works. I congratulate the team of editors from EMPRI for bringing out the book in a befitting way.

(Vandita Sharma)

vii

Message

The Department of Science Technology (DST), Government of India has been entrusted with the responsibility of implementing two out of eight missions launched under National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC). The National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change (NMSKCC) is one among them which aims at building S&T capacities in the relevant areas of climate change; mapping of knowledge and data resources; Networking of knowledge institutions, creation of new dedicated centres, technology mapping, selection and prioritization, etc.

One of the deliverables of NMSKCC is to provide assistance to the State Governments to establish and strengthen the climate change knowledge centres to build CC knowledge base and take up certain basic tasks such as carrying out vulnerability and risk assessments, conducting stakeholder trainings, organising public awareness programmes and building institutional capacity in climate change. DST has recently supported a Centre for Climate Change in Karnataka at EMPRI. The Centre successfully conducted its first National seminar on climate change during January, 2017. The technical sessions had six themes namely, climatology and climate change, climate change and impact assessment, climate change and biodiversity, adaptation and mitigation measures, climate concerns and green technology, climate change law and policy. I understand the Seminar was attended by a large number of researchers, academicians, NGOs, policy makers, and administrators from across the State. The deliberations at the seminar were very fruitful. I am delighted to learn that a book entitled “Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions” is being brought out which is a compilation of papers presented by experts and researchers in the Seminar. I congratulate EMPRI team especially the Director General for publication of the book which I am confident will be of great use to not only researchers, academicians and students but also the policy makers.

I sincerely wish that DST’s supported CC Centre at EMPRI will continue to contribute meaningfully towards meeting its objectives and not only come up to DST’s expectation but attain excellence in the time to come.

(Akhilesh Gupta)

viii

Organizing Committee

Ms. Ritu Kakkar, IFS, Director General Ms. Saswati Mishra, IFS, Director Dr. K.H. Vinaya Kumar, IFS, Director Dr. O.K. Remadevi, Head, Centre for Climate Change Mr. C. Ramesha, Project Development Officer Mr. Basavaraju, Head, Training Division Mr. B.S. Hegde, Accounts Manager (Finance) Dr. Papiya Roy, Research Scientist Dr. M. Manjunatha, Research Scientist Dr. N. Hema, Research Scientist Dr. Boya Saritha, Research Associate Mr. J. Cruz Antony, Research Associate Ms. P. Chitra, Research Associate Mr. Roshan Puranik, Research Associate Mr. R. Abhilash, Sr. GIS Scientist Ms. Roopadevi Koti, GIS Scientist Mr. Kiranraddi Morab, GIS Scientist Ms. Nayana Prakash, Research Associate Ms. Reethu Singh, Research Associate Ms. Vyshali Prakash, Junior Research Fellow Mr. Balasubramanya Sharma, Research Assistant Mr. S. Sooraj, Research Assistant Mr. Chaturved Shet, Research Assistant Ms. D. Komala, Programme Coordinator-NGC Ms. Priyadarshini Patil, Programme Associate-NGC Mr. B.N. Chaitanya, Training Associate Mr. G. Ramesh, Training Assistant Ms. Soujanya Nagaraj, Programme Officer-ENVIS Dr. Pavithra P. Nayak, Information Officer-ENVIS Ms. H.P. Siri, IT Assistant Ms. Jennifer Vincent, System Administrator Ms. Anusha Vimal, Project Assistant Ms. Syeda Sarah, Project Assistant

ORGANISING SECRETARY

Dr. O.K. Remadevi, Head, Centre for Climate Change, EMPRI

ix

Preface

nvironmental Management and Policy Research Institute (EMPRI), registered under the Societies act 1960 is an autonomous institute under the Department of

Forest, Ecology, and Environment, Government of Karnataka. EMPRI had its humble beginning as the Environmental Training Institute (ETI) under Karnataka State Pollution Control Board (KSPCB) in the year 1996 with the assistance from Govern-ment of Denmark. Subsequently, it was renamed as the Environmental Management and Policy Research Institute (EMPRI), in the year 2002 with an enhanced mandate of organizing not only need-based trainings but also conducting demand driven applied and policy research in environmental management. It is designated as the State Centre for Climate Change in Karnataka in 2015. During 2016, National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change (NMSKCC), Department of Science and Technology (DST) under the Strategic Programmes Large Initiatives and Coordinated Action Enabler (SPLICE) project approved the strengthening of the Centre for Climate Change into a Strategic knowledge Centre for Climate Change. The centre collaborat- ing and networking with knowledge institutions is contributing to the cause of climate resilient sustainable development in India, specifically Karnataka. In the context of climate getting hotter and hottest, it is high time to debate on the challenges posed by climate change in India, and develop feasible technological solutions for mitigation and adaptation to the diverse issues of climate change.

To bring together all those who are concerned and contributing to the knowledge creation and spreading information on climate change, EMPRI organized a one-day national seminar on “Climate change: challenges and solutions” at its campus—“Hasiru Bhavana” J.P. Nagar, Bangalore on 23rd January 2017. This seminar was organized with the sponsorship of Department of Science and Technology. The conference was structured into Inaugural, Technical and Valedictory sessions. The technical sessions had six themes namely climatology and climate change, climate change and impact assessment, climate change and biodiversity, adaptation and mitigation measures, climate concerns and green technology, climate change law and policy. About 120 delegates participated in the seminar and 40 scientific papers were presented either as oral or poster presentation. Researchers from different academic/research institutions like Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR), Indian Council of Medical Research (ICMR), Indian Council of Forestry Research and Education (ICFRE), Indian Institute of Science (IISc), The Energy and Resources Institute (TERI), Karnataka State Remote Sensing Application Centre (KSRSAC), Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), Institute for Social and Economic Change (ISEC), Public Affairs Centre (PAC), Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring

E

x Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions

Centre (KSNMDC) etc., participated in this conference to present their scientific findings on the diverse aspects of impacts, adaptation and mitigation of climate change. The brainstorming technical sessions were led by eminent Professors and Scientists in the respective themes. The recommendations from the deliberations in the technical sessions can be used for planning further strategies in combating climate change.

This book on Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions is a compilation of selected lectures and research papers presented in the seminar. It is organized into five sections covering different themes. 1. Proceedings of the sessions 2. Lead/Invited Talks 3. Research papers 4. Selected Abstracts and 5 Photo gallery. Hope this will form an interesting reading to those who are into research, policy-making and implementing technologies for climate resilient development. It is also envisioned that this will ignite the interest and enthusiasm in young researchers to carry the mission of finding solutions to the challenges of Climate Change.

Editors

xi

Acknowledgements

he Director General, the Director of the Institute and the editors of the proceedings wish to express their deep gratitude to the Department of Science & Technology

(DST), New Delhi for financial support to organize the national seminar on Climate Change. Special thanks are also due to Shri. T.M. Vijay Bhaskar, IAS (Additional Chief Secretary to Government, Department of Forest, Environment and Ecology, Karnataka) who presided over the inaugural session of the seminar. We would like to express our sincere gratitude to Prof. N.H. Ravindranath (Centre for Sustainable Technologies, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru), who has delivered the keynote address during the inaugural session. Our sincere gratitude is also extended to all the dignitaries and the keynote speakers who had made the seminar a great success. Finally, we thank all the organizing committee members; without their effort, the smooth conduct of the seminar would not have been possible.

Editors

T

xiii

Contents

Message from ACS, Department of Forest, Ecology & Environment, GoK .............................. v Message from Advisor & Head, SPLICE, DST, GoI ................................................................. vii Organizing Committee .............................................................................................................. viii Preface ...................................................................................................................................... ix Acknowledgements .................................................................................................................... xi

SECTION-1: Proceedings of the Seminar ..................................................................... 1

SECTION-2: Lead/Invited Talks

1. Addressing the Climate Crisis: Way Forward .................................................... Govindasamy Bala

16

2. Biodiversity and Climate Change—A Way Forward ......................................... S.B. Dandin

20

3. Architecture and Attitude—An Ecological Approach ........................................ Sathya Prakash Varanashi

24

4. Negotiating for Climate Justice: Quo Vadis? ...................................................... M.K. Ramesh

29

5. The Paris Agreement: A Common Future ........................................................... Aastha Suman

37

6. Climate Change Communication: Case Study of Developing a .......................... Community Primer in Kannada

Somashekhar B. Srikantiah

45

SECTION-3: Research Papers

7. The Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Insect Pests ................................... A.K. Chakravarthy and K.S. Nitin

61

8. Utility of Geospatial Database and its Application ............................................. for Climate Change Studies

B.P. Lakshmikantha

79

9. Role of GIS Models in Assessing Vulnerable Districts for ................................ Vector-Borne Diseases under Different Climate Change Scenarios

R. Abhilash, Kiranraddi Morab, Roopadevi Koti, G. Ashwini and P. Chitra

84

10. Variations in Rainfall Trends over Karnataka ..................................................... C.N. Prabhu, G.S. Srinivasa Reddy, N.G. Keerthi, Emily Prabha, S.S.M. Gavaskar and Prashanth Hiremath

94

11. Communicating Climate Change Impacts Using Cognitive Science: ................. A Case of Peri-Urban Bangalore

Arvind Lakshmisha and Priyanka Agarwal

103

xiv Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions

12. Vehicular Emission Monitoring System (VEMS) .............................................. Peter Manoj, Vijay Mishra, Puneet Sharma and Mehboob Jailani

115

13. Estimation of Methane Gas Emissions from Selected Municipal ....................... Solid Waste Landfills of Urban Bangalore

Papiya Roy, M. Manjunatha, Ritu Kakkar, Saswati Mishra and K.H. Vinaya Kumar

122

14. Climate Change Alters the Intensity and Population Dynamics of ..................... Insect Pests: A Case Study with Ferrisia virgata (Cockerell) Infesting Sandalwood and Pongam in Karnataka

R. Sundararaj and Rashmi R. Shanbhag

130

15. Butterflies as Indicators of Climate Change—A Baseline Study ........................ in Bengaluru City

O.K. Remadevi, Roshan D. Puranik, S. Sooraj, K.H. Vinaya Kumar, Saswati Mishra and Ritu Kakkar

135

16. Conserving Biodiversity Conserves Carbon ....................................................... A.S. Devakumar, K. Srinath and Anil Khaple

163

17. A Quantitative Study on Adaptability of Indigenous Cattle of Wayanad, .......... Kerala on Climate Change Using Heat Tolerance Test

Siddhartha Savale and M. Muhammed Asif

176

18. Increased Public Transport Usage: Perception Contra Realities ......................... in Access and Usage Comparing Norway and India

Tanu Priya Uteng and Mridula Sahay

181

19. Energy Saving Devices and their Beneficial Effects on Reduction .................... of Carbon Emissions

K. Ravi, Sara Kunnath and T.V. Mohandas

200

20. Paris Agreement on Climate Change: A Critical Analysis ................................. of the Indian Legal Framework

Vidya Ann Jacob

209

21. Awareness on Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture, .................................. a Study of Chidambaram Agricultural Area by Using Educational Global Climate Model Software and Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Atun Roychoudhury and V. Arutchelvan

218

22. Impact of Climate Change on Incidence of Dengue and .................................... Chikungunya in Karnataka

P. Chitra, O.K. Remadevi, Ritu Kakkar, Saswati Mishra and K.H. Vinaya Kumar

235

23. Simulation of Carbon Dynamics of Tectona grandis Forest in .......................... Western Ghats of Kerala, India, Using Century Model

M. Manjunatha, M. Niveditha, A.V. Santhoshkumar, T.K. Kunhamu, Sandeep and Sunil

247

Contents xv

24. Studies on the Impact of a Malathion Insecticide on Certain .............................. Biochemical Constituents of a Fish, Labeo rohita

K. Anusiya Devi, M. Lekeshmanaswamy and C.A. Vasuki

256

SECTION-4: Selected Abstracts

25. Climate Change and Impact Assessment ............................................................ Jagmohan Sharma

261

26. Effects of Water-Stress on Growth and Physicochemical Changes .................... in Onion (Allium cepa L.)

Pritee Singh and Jai Gopal

262

27. Assessment of Impact of Climate Change on Vector-Borne .................................. Diseases in India

Neera Kapoor

263

28. A Comparative Study on the Air Pollution Tolerance Index (APTI) .................. of Plants at Various Sites as an Indicator of Air Pollution

Merin Johny and Jisha Jacob

264

29. Environmental Pollution and Monitoring in East Antarctica .............................. Pawan Kumar Bharti

265

30. Vulnerability of Food Security to Climate Variability ........................................ Bhargavi Nagendra

266

31. Ecological Research on Soil Carbon Storage in Karnataka ................................ Sumanta Bagchi, H.C. Manjunatha and Karthik Murthy

267

32. A Baseline Study on the Impacts of Climate Change on Nesting ....................... Sea Turtles of Honnavar Forest Division

Gayathri Venkataramanan, M. Muralidharan, Kartik Shanker and Naveen Namboothri

268

33. Does Floristic Structure and Composition Change with Climate Change? ........ A Case Study from the Tropical Wet Evergreen Forests of Central Western Ghats

B.N. Sathish, Syam Viswanath, C.G. Kushalappa, M.N. Ramesh and M.L. Karthik

270

34. Comprehensive Documentation Climate-Termites, ITK Indian Context ........... G.K. Mahapatro and Debajyoti Chatterjee

271

35. Urbanisation and Its Effects on Lizards: A Study from a ................................... Climate Change Perspective

Maria Thaker and Madhura Amdekar

272

36. Overview of Mitigation and Adaptation Policies in India’s INDCs ................... S.S. Krishnan

273

37. Enteric Methane Emission from Indian Livestock: Quantification and Mitigation

P.K. Malik, A.P. Kolte, K.T. Poornachandra and R. Bhatta

274

xvi Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions

38. Plants bioactive Compounds in Counteracting Oxidative Stress ........................ in Poultry Birds

Adarshvijay, K.T. Poornachandra, H.B. Veeresh, A. Geethika and Minu R. Varghese

275

39. Probiotics for Combating Production and Health Stress in Animals .................. N. Aderao Ganesh, Adarshvijay, A. Geethika and A.M. Khan

276

40. Soil-Plant-Animal Health in Changing Climate Situation .................................. H.B. Veeresh, K.T. Poornachandra, R. Dhinesh Kumar, Adarshvijay and Ajay Singh

277

41. Enhancing Livestock Fertility under Climate Change Scenario ......................... Sukanta Mondal, A. Mor, I.J. Reddy, S. Nandi, P.S.P. Gupta and A. Mishra

278

42. Agroforestry as a Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation ........................... Strategy for Karnataka

Indu K. Murthy, M.H. Swaminath, H.B. Darshan, G.T. Hegde and Shridhar Patgar

279

43. Beat the Heat-Healthy Hospitals, Healthy Planet How ....................................... Hospitals can Contribute to a Reduction in Global Warming

C.N. Shalini

280

44. Larval Source Management—Best Way to Counter Climate Change ................ Effects on Mosquito-Borne Diseases

S.K. Ghosh, S.N. Tiwari, U. Sreehari and V.P. Ojha

281

45. Feeding Value of Hydroponics Green Fodder .................................................... H.B. Veeresh, K.T. Poornachandra, R. Dhinesh Kumar, Ajay Singh and Adarshvijay

282

46. Application of Green Technology in Agricultural Sector, .................................. a Paradigm over Combating the Global Threat-Climate Change

B.N. Chaitanya and R. Asokan

283

47. Solar-Powered Eco-Rickshaws and Gadgets ...................................................... for Environment-Friendly Lifestyle

Georgekutty Karianappally

284

48. E-bikes for Reducing Air Pollution in Cities ...................................................... Mahesha Siddegowda, Chiranth Shivakumar and H.A. Harish Kumar

285

49. Impacts of Climate Change on Vulnerable Communities: .................................. A Case Study of Karnataka

M. Balasubramanian, M. Deekshith, M. Manjunatha and O.K. Remadevi

286

50. People Participation in Climate Change: Challenges .......................................... and Scope with Respect to India

H. Sree Krishna Bharadwaj

287

51. A Low Carbon Scenario for India and Its Implications for India’s ..................... Climate Pledge and the Global Goal of Limiting Warming to Safe Levels

Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi

288

Contents xvii

52. Behavioural Insights for Scaling Up Renewable Energy Technologies in India ..... Ulka Kelkar

289

53. Green Algae (Anabaena flos-aquae) Toxicity Study for .................................... Industrial Wastewater Pollution in the Freshwater Systems

Jaswant Ray, Amit Kumar, Pawan K. Bharti and B.K. Aggarwal

290

54. Checklist of Butterflies Occurring in Green Spaces of Bangalore City .............. Roshan D. Puranik, S. Sooraj, Deepak Naik, Chaturved Shet, O.K. Remadevi, Ritu Kakkar, Saswati Mishra and K.H. Vinaya Kumar

291

55. Phytobiotics—For Organic Designer Meat Production ...................................... N. Aderao Ganesh, M. Vispute Mayur, Aadil Majeed Khan and Adarshvijay

292

56. Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Production .......................................... and Adaptation Strategies

R. Dhinesh Kumar, H.B. Veeresh, K.T. Poornachandra, Adarshvijay and Ajay Singh

293

57. Physical Processing of Crop Residue: An Approach for Adaptation .................. H.B. Veeresh, K.T. Poornachandra, R. Dhinesh Kumar, Ajay Singh and Adarshvijay

294

58. Effect of Protection of Intact Proteins for Ameliorating ..................................... Negative Balance in Ruminants

Adarshvijay, N. Aderao Ganesh, A. Geethika and A.M. Khan

295

59. Effect of Climate Changes to the Food and Beverage Sector ............................. Rabin Chandra Paramanik, B.K. Chikkaswamy, Achinto Paramanik and Hossein Ramzan Nezhad

296

60. Azolla (Azolla pinnata)—An Alternate Protein Source ...................................... in Duck Rearing Industry

Adarshvijay, K.T. Poornachandra, H.B. Veeresh, N. Aderao Ganesh, A.M. Khan, A. Geethika and Minu R. Varghese

297

61. Study on Ecological Value of Mulberry Development ....................................... B.K. Chikkaswamy and Rabin Chandra Paramanik

298

62. Impact of Plant-Derived Essential Oils for Livestock ........................................ Health and Production

N. Aderao Ganesh, Adarshvijay, A. Geethika and A.M. Khan

299

63. Water Security Plan for Bengaluru City: Climate Change Adaptation ............... B.S. Chandrakala, P. Jeya Prakash, V. Sreenivas, K.H. Vinaya Kumar, Saswati Mishra and Ritu Kakkar

300

Author Index ......................................................................................................... 301

SECTION-5: Photo Gallery ................................................................................... 303

Proceedings of the Seminar 1

1

Environmental Management and Policy Research Institute (EMPRI) is an autonomous Institution established under Forest, Ecology and Environment Department, Government of Karnataka, and registered under Karnataka Societies Registration Act, 1960. EMPRI as the state centre for Climate Change in Karnataka anchors the State’s future Scientific and Technical activities on climate change. Karnataka State Action Plan on Climate Change (KSAPCC) prepared by EMPRI was approved by MOEF & CC in 2015. The institute has been instrumental in formulating and implementing many policies towards bringing in sustainable and climate resilient growth in Karnataka. During 2016, National Mission on Strategic Knowledge for Climate Change (NMSKCC), Department of Science and Technology (DST) under the Strategic Programmes Large Initiatives and Coordinated Action Enabler (SPLICE) project approved the strengthening of the Center for Climate Change in EMPRI into a Strategic knowledge centre for climate change.

EMPRI organized a one-day National Seminar on “Climate change: Challenges and Solutions” at its premises—“Hasiru Bhavana” J.P. Nagar, Bangalore on 23rd January 2017. This seminar was organized with the sponsorship of Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India. The objective of this seminar was to create a platform for the exchange of scientific knowledge among the research scientists working in various prestigious institutions from various parts of the country with the intention of networking of knowledge to develop feasible technological solutions for mitigation and adaptation to the diverse issues of climate change. Following were the sub-themes of the seminar:

Climatology and Climate Change Climate Change and Impact Assessment Climate Change and Biodiversity Adaptation and Mitigation Measures of any Sector Climate Concerns and Green Technology Climate Change Law and Policies.

There were forty registered delegates in the seminar. There were a total of thirty-six presentations given in six technical sessions and one poster session of the seminar. There were six representatives from press and media and few invited guests from different state government departments.

SECTION 1

Proceedings of the Seminar

2 Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions

INAUGURAL SESSION

The session started with an invocation song by Dr. Boya Saritha and Ms. Vyshali Prakash followed by the lighting of the lamp by the dignitaries on the dais. Shri T.M. Vijay Bhaskar, IAS (Additional Chief Secretary to Government, Department of Forest, Environment and Ecology, Karnataka presided over the function. The chief guests for the occasion were Shri M.N. Sahai, IFS, Ex-Director General, EMPRI, Prof. N.H. Ravindranath (Centre for Sustainable Technologies, Indian Institute of Science, Shri Sanjai Mohan, IFS, APCCF (Research), Dr. T.V. Mohandas, IFS (Director, MGIRED), Dr. Jagmohan Sharma, IFS, Director, Water Resources Department, Shri Punati Sridhar, IFS, APCCF, KFD, Dr. K.N. Murthy, IFS, APCCF (Research and Utilization, KFD, Prof. G. Bala, Divecha Center for Climate Change, IISc. Smt. Ritu Kakkar, IFS (Director General, EMPRI) addressed the gathering of Chief Guests, scientists and faculty members from various academic and research institutes, reporters from media and press and extended a warm welcome to all participants forthe first national seminar organised by EMPRI. Prof. N.H. Ravindranath delivered a keynote address and pointed out that lack of data on climate change in India has undermined the efforts being taken to combat the problem. Further, he told that it is high time that various concerned institutions in India start collecting scientific evidence on climate change. Right now, India does not have sufficient data on the subject. As a result, we are not in a position to empower certain sectors, such as farming and energy, to effectively tackle climate change. Pointing to the need to build data models on climate change at the regional, state and district level, he added, India has to submit a report on greenhouse gas emissions to the United Nations twice every year. But whenever we sit down to do this, we find that there is not much information. We have very few experts working on climate change modelling. Prof. Ravindranath said that the average rise in temperature in 2016 was a clear indication of the gravity of climate change.

Shri T.M. Vijay Bhaskar, IAS delivered a presidential address. He proposed levying climate change cess on four-wheelers. In doing so, we will also further bolster public transport services such as BMTC. The other dignitaries present in the inaugural session were Prof. Krishnan S.S. (CSTEP, Bangalore), Prof. M.K. Ramesh (National Law School of India University), Prof. S.B. Dandin (Bioversity International), Dr. Shalini C.N. (MSRMC), Dr. A.K. Chakravathy (IIHR), Dr. Sathya Prakash Varanashi (Sathya Consultants) and N. Mohan Karnat, IFS (IWST).

Shri T.M. Vijay Bhaskar, IAS and other dignitaries on the dais released the research reports of the projects on climate change completed by EMPRI and also conducted in collaboration with other knowledge institutions.

Butterflies as Indicators of Climate Change—A Baseline Study in Bangalore City (Dr. O.K. Remadevi, Centre for Climate Change, EMPRI).


Urbanization and its effects on lizards: A study from a climate change perspective (Dr. Maria Thaker and Madhura Amdekar, Centre for Ecological Sciences, IISc, Bengaluru).

Establishing a baseline for monitoring sea turtle nesting sites on the Karnataka coast through coastline mapping (Ms. Gayathri Venkataramanan, Mr. Muralidharan, Naveen Namboodiri and Karthik Shanker, Dakshin Foundation, Bengaluru)

Agro-Forestry as a Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation Strategy for Karnataka (Ms. Indu K. Murthy, Dr. M.H. Swaminath, Aranya Climate Change Services Pvt. Ltd., Bengaluru).

Assessing double injustice of climate change and urbanization on water security in peri-urban areas around Bangalore (Aravind Lakshmisha, J. Jangal and Priyanka Agarwal, Public Affairs Centre, Bengaluru).

Shri M.N. Sahai, IFS, Dr. Jagmohan Sharma, IFS, Dr. K.N. Murthy, IFS addressed the gathering and highlighted the importance of conducting a national seminar on a very relevant environmental issue. The vote of thanks was delivered by Smt. Saswati Mishra, IFS (Director, EMPRI) who thanked all the EMPRI staff, chief guests, other dignitaries and all the participants of the national seminar.

Technical Session I: Climate Change and Climatology

After the inaugural session, Technical Session Ion Climate Change and Climatology was conducted in Conference Hall. Prof. Govindaswamy Bala from Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Science, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore presented the lead talk entitled, “Addressing the Climate Crisis: Way Forward”. He informed the audience about the threefold increment in global energy consumption leading to an overall increase of CO2 level in earth’s atmosphere. He also informed that global average temperature in 2015 was a record high compared to last few decades. He briefly explained about the future emission scenario under different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). He also apprised the participants about the COP21 at Paris and major features of the meetings. Then he discussed the possible mitigation measures available to control the atmospheric concentration of CO2. One of the possible solutions to the current crisis is an emerging technology-geo engineering. He informed that the technology is very effective at pilot scale but economically it is very exorbitant.

The lead talk was followed by technical paper presentations by different institutes. Prof. Bala and Director General, EMPRI were the chairman and Dr. Papiya Roy was the rapporteur for the session. Dr. C.N. Prabhu, Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre presented his technical paper on, “Variation in rainfall trends over Karnataka”. The objectives of the paper were to understand the temporal and spatial


variation of climate over Karnataka and impacts of climate change on rainfall and temperature pattern. Preliminary analysis of the collected data revealed that variation in annual rainfall would be more than the projections indicated in Karnataka State Action Plan on Climate Change.

Dr. Lakshmikanth, Karnataka State Remote Sensing Application Centre was the second presenter for the technical session. He presented on “Utility of Geospatial Database and its Application for Climate Change Studies”. He informed about the various geospatial datasets across the different sectors developed by the centre. The major suggestion was given to him to make the datasets available in public domain.

Abhilash R., Roopadevi Koti and Kiranraddi Morab from EMPRI presented on “the Role of GIS models in assessing vulnerable districts for vector-borne diseases under different climate change scenarios”. The analysis has been carried out to assess the link between temperature and humidity with the number of vector-borne disease case occurrence in various districts of Karnataka state. The outcome of this study predicts the possible districts of Karnataka state which may be prone to vector-borne diseases under different climate change scenarios based on the baseline studies carried out from 2011–2015. Incorporation of IPCC climate scenarios, along with the integration of socioeconomic data, the location of hospitals, influencing weather parameters and any other impelling factors is recommended for the next phase of the project.

At the end of the technical session, Chairman suggested to all researchers to work hard in developing robust climate models for various sectors as a potential solution to combat climate change.

Technical Session II: Climate Change and Impact Assessment

Technical session II was on the topic, ‘Climate change and impact assessment’. The session began with the presentation entitled, ‘Climate Change and Impact Assessment’ by the lead speaker, Dr. Jagmohan Sharma, IFS. He briefly highlighted the climate projection models and sectoral impact models used to understand the likely future climate and the type and magnitude of its impact on the natural (rivers, forests, etc.) and semi-natural (agriculture, horticulture, animal husbandry, etc.) systems, developmental infrastructure and the society as a whole. He also discussed on reliable impact assessments and consistency in the climate change impact data vital for decision-making by governments. The institutional capability for climate change impact assessment in different sectors is limited in India. Collaborative working can help in developing reliable assessments at national and sub-national levels. There were series of questions posed which led to fruitful discussions.

Followed by the lead talk, there were three oral presentations made by different presenters from various institutes across the country. There was good interaction


between the presenters and the participants and the recommendations given in the session were recorded.

Mr. Arvind Lakshmi Sha, Senior Programme Officer, Public Affairs Centre, Bangalore presented on ‘Communicating Climate Change Impacts using Cognitive Science’. He explained the importance of the study in the ongoing context of imminent urbanisation. There is increasing stress on the water resources due to growing population and rising per capita requirement. The current form of unplanned extraction and consumption of resources by urban areas from its periphery coupled with changing climate has impacted availability, quantity and quality of water resources. Jurisdictional ambiguity, lack of cooperation and the absence of coordination among the various governmental bodies often results in uncertain actions among stakeholders. He highlighted the uses of Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM), which provides a rigorous scientific approach that quantifies subjective knowledge of varied groups. It is a practical and potentially powerful tool used for anticipatory action research by incorporating multiple stressors for planning. 240 FCMs were drawn with the stakeholders to capture their behaviours of how water security in their areas is impacted. Neural networks calculations were undertaken to simulate policy options under six scenarios, resulting in identifying options for implementation by local and state governments, discussed at a policy dialogue platform.

Dr. Papiya Roy, Research Scientist, Centre for Climate Change, Environmental Management and Policy Research Institute (EMPRI) Bangalore presented on ‘Estimation of GHG emissions from selected municipal solid waste landfills and processing units of urban Bangalore’. The alarming rate of waste generation is leading to unscientific dumping of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in the cities like Bangalore. The disposal of MSW results in the production of Greenhouse Gases (GHG) from the dump yards because of aerobic decomposition of MSW. Generation of landfill gas mostly contains CH4 (about 50–60%) and CO2 (about 30–40%). CH4 is a potential GHG and the global warming potential of the gas is 25 times greater than the CO2. Dispersion of CH4 gas from the landfill to the nearby areas poses a potential threat to the natural environment including human population. In order to properly manage the changing conditions, knowledge and estimation of the available resources is extremely important.

Peter Manoj, Senior Facility Technologist-Industry Affiliate, Centre for Nano Science and Engineering (CeNSE), System Engineering Facility, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore presented on the development of Vehicular Emission Monitoring System (VEMS). One of the major impacting sources is the vehicular emission. Majority of the vehicles ply on the city roads without emission check certificate; Commissioner of Police, Bangalore City inaugurated ‘joint drive’ to control Air Pollution in March 2012. He highlighted the need to build a Vehicular Emission Monitoring System (VEMS) that is directly connecting to a tailpipe, which consists of several sub-systems


for cooling and filtering the corrosive gas, dilution chamber and important accessories like pumps, valves and sensors respectively. The outcomes would create a significant importance to the user vehicle manufacturer government agencies/joint drive forces can regulate and can take proactive measures to control more emission areas, promotion of public transport.

Technical Session III: Climate Change and Biodiversity

Prof. S.B. Dandin acted as the chairperson and judge for this session. Dr. A.K. Chakravarthy presented the work on, The Potential Impacts of Climate Change on Insect Pests and Biodiversity in Cultivated Ecosystems: An Appraisal. He has given insight on insects emerging as pests under high temperatures which were posing threat to various crops. Some of the major pests are paddy beetle, elongated scale insect leafhopper complex and mealy bugs. This paper projected that biodiversity and climate change are closely linked with each other and impacts one another.

Dr. O.K. Remadevi, Head, Centre for Climate Change, EMPRI, presented the paper on Butterflies as bio-indicators of climate change—A baseline study in Bangalore city. The research study focused on the seasonal distribution of butterflies and its biodiversity in selected green spaces of Bengaluru city. During the study period, 108 species of butterflies were recorded. She informed that this study forms a baseline data for any future studies on butterflies as bioindicators of climate change.

Dr. R. Sundararaj presented his paper on Climate Change alters the intensity and population dynamics of insect pests: A case study with Ferrisia virgata (Cockerell) infesting sandalwood and Pongam in Karnataka. He studied population dynamics of F.virgata on S.album and P.pinnata in Bangalore, Karnataka. Infestation rate was found to exhibit significantly positive correlation with monthly mean maximum temperature while morning relative humidity and evening relative humidity exhibited significantly negative correlation with the population.

Dr. Debajyothi Chatterjee presented on Comprehensive Documentation. Climate, Termites, ITK, Indian Context. He explained that a map has been constructed based on different ITKs reported relevant to termites vis-a-vis climate change/interference. He informed that occurrence of termite mounds and their height helps the farmers in forest areas to select land for cultivating tuber and seed crops and in many states like Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan, the appearance of termite serves an indicator of rainfall and good climate.

Mr. Vinayak V. Pai presented on the topic, does floristic structure and composition changes with climate change? A case study from the tropical wet evergreen forests of Central Western Ghats. The study explored the changes in floristic structure and composition in the evergreen forests by using the long-term data from permanent preservation plots and indicated that richness of species decreased in permanent


preservation plot in Makutta (1937–2008) and Malemane (1939–1954). The study focused to take conservative steps to minimize such unprecedented changes in the fragile ecosystems for the future. Prof. S.B. Dandin summarised the session and recommended to conduct long-term research on Biodiversity to consider the impacts of climate change on biodiversity.

Technical Session IV: Adaptation and Mitigation in any Sector

Technical session IV was on the topic, ‘Adaptation and Mitigation in any sector’. The session began with the presentation entitled, ‘Overview of Mitigation and Adaptation Policies in India’s INDCs’ by the lead speaker Dr. S.S. Krishnan, Advisor, Energy Efficiency and Sustainable Energy Policy Program, Center for Study of Science, Technology and Policy (CSTEP), Bangalore. The talk briefly highlighted on aspects of climate change implications for India, the vulnerability assessment, climate agreements, overview of India’s INDC policies, its goals and initiatives, mitigation and adaptation strategies and finally, the transition to green economy in Karnataka. He discussed the projected impacts due to climate change on agriculture, forest and biodiversity.

Dr. Pradeep Kumar Malik, ICAR-National Institute of Animal Nutrition and Physio- logy, Bangalore presented on, ‘Enteric Methane Emission from Indian Livestock: Quantification and mitigation’. The institute has developed an inventory for estimating the state wise enteric methane emission from Indian livestock and also identified the hotspots where urgent interventions were required for minimizing the emission at regional and national levels. The present study estimates revealed comparatively less enteric than that predicted by other agencies using coefficients based methodologies. Many ameliorative approaches have been developed and evaluated both in vitro and in vivo for methane reduction efficiency. Results from the studies conducted in a series revealed 20–25% reduction in enteric methane emission after the incorporation of plant secondary metabolites containing phyto-sources in animal’s diet at the appropriate level.

A presentation on, ‘A Quantitative Study on Adaptability of Desi Cattle Varieties of Wayanad, Kerala on Climate Change Using Heat Tolerance Test’ was made by Dr. Siddhartha Savale, Department of Veterinary and Animal Husbandry Extension, Pookode, Kerala. The study was conducted on seven Wayanad dwarf (Desi) cattle for a period of seven days. The parameters assessed were rectal temperature, respiration rate and pulse rate which were recorded twice daily at 8 a.m. and 3 p.m. Dairy Search Index (DSI) was applied to measure the heat tolerance. The results indicated that as per DSI standard the animals have minimal stress during hot climatic conditions. The presentation was concluded by stating that these cattle can be adapted to cope up with the adverse climatic conditions in order to maintain sustainability in livestock production system.


Dr. Mondal, National Institute of Animal Nutrition and Physiology presented on the topic entitled, ‘Enhancing livestock fertility under climate change scenario’. The unfavourable effects of heat stress could be mitigated by enhancing thermotolerance of oocytes and embryos, developing animals with improved thermotolerance using genetic approaches, physical modification of environment, nutritional modifications to account for changing nutrient requirements and changes in livestock practices such as diversification, intensification and/or integration of pasture management, livestock and crop production.

Dr. Shalini C.N., Department of Community Medicine, M.S. Ramaiah Medical College, Bangalore presented on the topic, ‘Beat the heat-healthy hospitals, healthy planet’. The issues discussed were on the impact of climate change on health, vulnerable populations, the carbon footprint of hospitals and ways in which hospitals can contribute to reducing the impact of climate change. Concepts of energy efficiency, green buildings, alternative energy generation and biomedical waste management were other issues dealt.

Dr. S.K. Ghosh, National Institute of Malaria Research presented on the topic entitled,’ Larval source management—the best way to counter climate change effects on mosquito-borne diseases’. The present work on larval source management strategy in Karnataka demonstrated the effectiveness of fish-based malaria control. It was essential to release fish in all the potential breeding habitats so that it could play a supportive role in the elimination programme. All such breeding habitats could be enumerated by applying digital systems. Involvement of other departments is needed to fulfil this goal.

Technical Session V: Climate Concerns and Green Technology

The first lead talk was delivered by Prof. Sathya Prakash Varanasi on the topic, Architecture and Attitude—An Ecological Approach. The paper highlighted that since the 70s environmental concerns have increased and one major sector to act upon is the construction industry which accounts for the generation of more than one-third of greenhouse gas emissions. Efforts are being made to reduce the carbon footprint in the construction sector by incorporating alternative design, materials, construction techniques and practices that are more eco-friendly.

Ms. Sara Kunnath presented on the topic, ‘Energy saving devices and their beneficial effects on reduction of carbon emissions’. The paper focused on the utilization of renewable energy, as it is the future non-exhaustible energy. Climate change poses one of the major concerns of humanity as the carbon dioxide levels have drastically increased in the past few years. To combat the energy crisis sustainable technology is necessary which uses biofuels, solar power and wind energy.

Mr. B.N. Chaitanya presented on the topic, ‘Application of Green Technology in Agricultural Sector, a Paradigm over Combating the Global Threat-Climate Change’.


This paper revealed the deleterious effect that pesticides have on human health and the environment as well as to the ozone layer. Hence, there is a necessity of implementing Green technology viz. RNAi for sustainable agriculture that aids in minimizing the use of hazardous chemical pesticides thus combating climate change.

Ms. Tanu Priya Uteng dealt on the topic, ‘Transport planning in the city-creating knowledge for planning cities in the Global South and postcolonial cities’. The paper aimed to illustrate that motorized transport is one of the major sources of pollution in urban areas and the issue has not been studied in detail with respect to climate change. As a result, this study highlights the various methods for data collection and analyses focusing on the travel behaviour in developing countries including Bangalore by drawing examples from two projects from the city of Oslo, Norway.

Technical Session VI: Climate Change Law and Policy

Lead talk on “Negotiating for Climate Justice-Quo Vadis?” was given by Prof. M.K. Ramesh from National Law school of Indian University, Bangalore. He reminded that the Paris Agreement and the recently concluded Marrakech CoPs has raised a host of issues of concern over the emerging content, contours and consequences of the new Climate deal. He also reminded few issues that would merit considerations like the rights, entitlements, role, responsibilities, obligations and liabilities of different players and its utility and value for small island countries and most vulnerable communities of people. He concluded his talk by suggesting few possible lines of arguments that India should advance, in the remaining period of negotiations and against such a backdrop of international developments and application of our national skills of negotiations, a review of internal measures is to be carried out, to ascertain to what extent all the efforts would approximate to ensuring, “CLIMATE JUSTICE”.

Climate Change: Law and Policy was presented by Ms. Aastha Suman, Advocate. She attempted to explore ways and means to strengthen the present Paris Agreement while underlining the significant role that India can play in giving our children a better future. She explained that there are many expectations attached to the Paris Agreement on climate change finalized during the 21st meeting of the conference of parties in December 2015. She said that being a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, it remains the only hope for us to prevent our planet from heating beyond redemption. She also expressed that in its present form, the agreement has been labelled by environmentalists as a ‘political compromise’ between the developed and the developing countries rather than being an environmentally sound document.

Climate Change Impacts on Vulnerable Communities: A Case Study of Karnataka was presented by M. Deekshith from Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore. He gave a brief introduction to climate change and explained how climate change has always been a challenge for human livelihood and explained how Scheduled Case,


Scheduled Tribes and Women are the highly vulnerable section to be affected by climate change in India as well as Karnataka. The study has used Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change 2014 framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change for 122 households in Karnataka. This study found that climate change has been highly affected in both study villages in terms of food production, water supply, health and income during the study period. Moreover, this study has also found that lack of climate change adaption mechanism is another significant problem at household level in two study villages in Karnataka. The implication of the study is to improve equitable and efficient resources to all affected household.

People Participation in Climate Changes India: Challenges and scope with respect to India ‘was given by Krishna Bharadwaj from National Law School of India University, Bengaluru. The paper explores and analyses the role of human values with respect to the correlation between the right to clean environment and duty to protect the environment along the lines of culture. He reminded that environmental protection is seen as a fundamental duty of every citizen of this country under Article 51-A (g) of our constitution which reads as follows: “It shall be the duty of every citizen of India to protect and improve the natural environment including forests, lakes, rivers and wildlife and to have compassion for living creatures.” He also spoke on the relationship between traditional values and climate change with a western view and Asian view. He explained about egalitarian and communitarian approaches for protecting our environment.

The paper on ‘GHG emission scenarios for India and its implications for India’s climate pledge and the global goal of limiting warming to safe levels’ was delivered by Dr. Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi, Senior Researcher from Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore. He explained how global surface temperatures have already risen by 1°C compared to the pre-industrial times. He introduced a new energy security and climate policy tool for India called India Energy Security Scenarios-2047 (IESS-2047), a tool developed by the Planning Commission and later refined by its successor NITI Aayog. He explained how this tool would help in assessing the implications of the “efforts” in terms of GHG emissions, energy security, land requirements and budgetary implications. He also said it is an attempt to explore an alternate energy and low carbon scenario for India up to 2047 in comparison to business as usual projections.

‘Legislative Framework of Climate Change in India and the Paris Agreement’ was presented by Vidya Ann Jacob from National Law School of India University, Bangalore. She said that Climate change has become a great threat and is much debated upon globally. Human activities and industrial development have brought about massive disruptions in the climatic conditions. She suggested that there is a need to attend to this growing threat at the global level on climate change by adopting green technologies. She explained about various legislative frameworks governing climate change in India and the challenges faced with respect to implementing the various


policies relating to climate change. She concluded by saying that India needs to adopt legislation which would exhaustively deal with all aspects related to climate change; government and the stakeholders need to work together to achieve the standards set internationally and lastly to adopt mechanisms to incentivize individuals and organizations who adopt cleaner and greener technologies.

Technical Session VII: Poster Session

The poster session was conducted in the in the main hall of EMPRI. The session was held between 2.00 to 4.00 p.m. The judges for this session were Prof. Sathya Prakash Varanasi, Sathya Consultants, Bengaluru, Prof. M.K. Ramesh, National Law School of India University, Bengaluru and Dr. K.H. Vinayakumar, Director, EMPRI. The poster presented by Atun Roychoudhury was on the topic ‘Awareness on the impact of climate change in agriculture, a study of Chidambaram agricultural area by using educational global climate model software’. The recommendation of the project is studies like this will be very useful for the farmers. They can plan their crop cultivation according to the changes in climate change. Ms. Chitra P. presented the poster on ‘Impact of climate change on the incidence of vector-borne diseases in Karnataka, India’. The major recommendation came out from the discussion was that the study should include the rainfall parameters also. Dr. Manjunatha M. presented on the topic, simulation of carbon dynamics of Tectona grandis forest in Western Ghats of Kerala, India, using century model. ‘Checklist of butterflies occurring in green spaces of Bangalore city’ was presented by Mr. Chaturved Shet. The recommendation for this study is that the butterflies can be considered as indicators of climate change.

Rabin Chandra Paramanik exhibited his poster on, ‘Effect of the climate changes to the food, beverage sector’. Ms. Chandrakala presented on the topic ‘Water security plan for Bengaluru city: Climate change adaptation’. The recommendations for the project is that water security plan should be implemented to protect the water bodies.

EXHIBITION

An exhibition was arranged on the innovative technologies useful for climate change adaptation and mitigation. Mahatma Gandhi Institute for Rural Energy Development, Bangalore organized a stall to display solar energy gadgets, smokeless chulah etc., Mr. Chiranth from Green Wheel Ride, Mysore exhibited the e-bike developed by their company. A poster on solar auto rickshaw developed by Lifeway Solar, Cochin, Kerala was displayed. A stall on ENVIS centre of EMPRI with charts on various activities was organized. The various publications such as EMRPI-ENVIS newsletters-Parisara, research reports, State of Environment Report (SoER), Karnataka State Action Plan on Climate Change (KSAPCC), handouts/brochure/comics on climate change were displayed and distributed. Twenty-five posters on various aspects/issues of


climate change and the adaptation/mitigation programs/projects being undertaken by different state government departments (agriculture, sericulture, horticulture, water resources, energy, transport, industries, etc.) were also displayed.

VALEDICTORY FUNCTION The valedictory function marked the closing of the national seminar. The session was chaired by Smt. Ritu Kakkar, IFS, Director General, EMPRI. The guests on the dais were Dr. S.S. Krishnan, Dr. M.K. Ramesh, Dr. Sathya Prakash Varanashi, Dr. K.H. Vinaya Kumar, IFS. Dr. O.K. Remadevi, Organising Secretary welcomed the gathering and gave a brief of the recommendations emanated from the deliberations from different technical sessions of the seminar. The technical experts gave their suggestions/comments on the recommendations. The best oral and poster presentations were awarded prizes. The details are given below:

The Best Presentation award under each theme was given to the following presenters:

Technical session 1 Climatology and Climate Change – Dr. C.N. Prabhu, Karnataka State National Disaster Monitoring Centre, Bangalore

Technical session 2 Climate Change and Impact Assessment – Dr. Papiya Roy, Centre for Climate Change, EMPRI, Bangalore

Technical session 3 Climate Change and Biodiversity – Dr. R. Sunderaraj, Institute of Wood Science and Technology, Bangalore

Technical session 4 Adaptation and Mitigation of any Sector – Dr. Pradeep Kumar Malik, National Institute of Animal Nutrition and Physiology, Bangalore

Technical session 5 Climate Concerns and Green Technology – Ms. Tanu Priya Uteng, Institute of Transport Economics, Oslo, Norway

Technical session 6 Climate Change Law and Policy – Ms. Aastha Suman, Advocate, Bangalore

Technical session 7 Poster Session – Dr. Manjunath M., Centre for Climate Change, EMPRI, Bangalore

Smt. Ritu Kakkar, IFS, DG, EMPRI gave the closing remarks. Dr. O.K. Remadevi proposed the vote of thanks to all the speakers, paper presenters, delegates of the seminar, the organizing committee members, exhibitors and caterers.

RECOMMENDATIONS

Technical Session 1: Climate Change and Climatology

For limiting CO2 emissions in the future on both regional and global scales the guidance of “Kaya Identity” can be considered to avert the undesirable impacts of climate change.


Awareness should be created among the farming community to utilize the weather-related information and plan to minimise their agricultural losses.

Application of geospatial database would be more efficient to understand climate-related changes in sensitive zones.

Technical Session 2: Climate Change and Impact Assessment

Encouragement to develop reliable assessments on impact data of climate change by using complex computer-based models such as CMIP5, ISI-MIP and Ag-MIP will be useful for decision-making by governments at national and sub-national levels.

Research on drought tolerant genotypes should be extended to different vegetable crops for crop sustainability.

The stakeholders can make use of knowledge of cognitive science for effective water management in peri-urban areas.

More efforts should be made to estimate GHG emission in landfill sites and come out with alternatives for effective waste management in reducing GHG emissions.

Technical Session 3: Climate Change and Biodiversity

Research studies on impacts of temperature rise on insect pests should be encouraged to understand the effects of climate change on biodiversity in cultivated ecosystems.

Steps should be taken to increase the nesting of sea turtles in beaches so as to manage and conserve sea turtles from the emerging threats due to climate change.

Ecosystems with the highest biodiversity should be conserved to achieve climate resilience and carbon sequestration.

Studies to promote permanent preservation plots in forests would enlighten the changes in the structure and composition of flora due to climate change.

Indigenous traditional knowledge on termites should be scientifically validated to assess the climate interference.

The survival rate of reptiles such as lizards can be taken into consideration while predicting the climate change due to the conversion of urban areas into heat islands.

Technical Session 4: Adaptation and Mitigation in any Sector

There is an urgent need for critical assessment and implementation of adaptation and mitigation policies in India for sustainable economic development.

Livestock diet should be incorporated with phyto-sources to reduce enteric methane emission.


In sustenance of soil-plant-animal health, restoration of climatic situations by promotion/adaptation of water conservation strategies in agriculture and managing livestock for sustainable land management.

To combat vector-borne diseases such as malaria, the introduction of larvivorous fish in breeding habitats will help in effective management of larval source.

Production of quality seedlings is a pre-requisite for expansion of agro forestry and awareness on climate change impacts should be created for taking up effective measures in adaptation and mitigation method.

Mitigation of heat stress for livestock sustainability can be done by increasing the thermo-tolerance capacity of animals through genetic approaches and nutritional modifications.

Building ‘Green’ hospitals by effective conservation measures in energy, fuel, water, food and waste management can help reducing carbon footprint in hospitals and become climate friendly hospitals.

Heat tolerance indices and heat tolerant tests such as Dairy Search Index (DSI) should be widely used to evaluate animals for their potential to tolerate heat stress and maintain a normal body temperature even in hot climatic conditions.

Technical Session 5: Climate Concerns and Green Technology

Eco-friendly architecture should be promoted in urban areas with alternate construction techniques and design options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

Implementation of Green Technology by gene silencing may reduce usage of chemical pesticides which prone to ozone depletion.

Awareness should be created among people to use green transportation making use of renewable energy.

Technical Session 6: Climate Change Law and Policy

In India, efforts should be made in applying national skills of negotiations to ensure climate justice.

There is a need to prepare and strengthen environmentally sound document such as Paris agreement on climate change.

Studies on impacts of climate change affecting vulnerable communities with respect to food, health and other social activities should be imposed.

People should adopt the culture of protecting the environment as their primary duty.

Development of policy tools on climate-related issues and their implications would be given priority.

Framing formulations for implementing government policies in reducing emissions would be helpful to address climate change issues.


Technical Session 7: Poster Session

Study of Climate variables such as temperature and carbon dioxide by using Educational global climate model software would help farmers for proper planning in agriculture.

Vulnerability to vector-borne diseases in any particular area/districts can be attributed by correlating the climatic parameters with the disease incidence.

An ecological model such as ‘Century’ can be used for measuring carbon stocks in the forest ecosystem.

Green algae can be used as an indicator for industrial wastewater pollution in freshwater system.

Butterflies, being sensitive to environmental changes, can be used as bioindicators to climate change in urban areas.

Efforts on adaptation strategies for livestock production should be made to reduce the livestock emissions and also to improve the efficiency of production processes that will enable to earn carbon credits.

Heat stress in animals can be reduced by physical processing of the roughage which increases the dry matter intake and improves the nutrient utilisation and the awareness of this should be created among farmers.

Livestock GHG emissions especially methane can be reduced when plant-derived essential oils are used as additives in the feed of ruminants.

The need of water security plan as an adaptation to climate change is required in urban areas to manage the groundwater scarcity.

Addressing the Climate Crisis: Way Forward 16

16

Addressing the Climate Crisis: Way Forward

Govindasamy Bala Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences,

Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, Karnataka E-mail: [email protected]

limate change is one of the many environmental challenges that humanity is facing in this century. The global energy consumption rate has approximately

tripled in the last 50 years. This rapid increase in the consumption rate is accompanied by steep increases in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and an accelerated increase in CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. The CO2 emissions from fossil fuels and the consequent increase in atmospheric CO2 are linked to accelerating the increase in global mean surface temperatures in recent years.

In 2016, the world witnessed an all-time record high global average surface temperature for the third year in a row since 2014. The global mean surface temperature is now 1.1C above pre-industrial levels. The trends in global temperatures and other manifestations of climate change such as retreat in glacier extents, sea level rise and accelerated decline of Arctic sea ice are being continuously reported in the climate science literature. The concentration of atmospheric CO2, the main driver for the current climate change, has recorded a steep increase since the pre-industrial period and it is now well past 400 ppm, about 120 ppm above the pre-industrial levels. This level of CO2 in the earth’s atmosphere was probably not seen in the last 20 million years. In addition to global warming, there is clear evidence in the literature for ocean acidification from this rising CO2.

All of above evidently points to the increasing influence humans have on the destiny of our planet and also raises the question of whether we are on a sustainable path. An extrapolation of our past actions suggests that we can expect an additional warming of 1–5°C by 2100. The major uncertainty and unknown now are whether impacts of climate change on society would be benign or catastrophic.

C

SECTION 2

Lead/Invited Talks


The likely impacts of climate change in the 21st century and beyond on important sectors such as water resources, agriculture, forestry, fishery, etc. have been assessed extensively by several national and international reports. Several scary scenarios such as dieback of Amazon forests, failure of crops, intense cyclones, breaking of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets and release of CO2 and CH4 from permafrost soils in high latitudes are projected to occur in the future.

What are the factors that drive the global carbon dioxide emissions? A simple identity called “Kaya Identity” gives guidance on limiting CO2 emissions in the future on both regional and global scales.

CO2 emission = Population × (GDP/person) × Energy Intensity × Carbon Intensity According to this identity, the CO2 emission is given by the product of population, GDP per person, energy intensity and carbon intensity. Energy intensity is defined as the amount of energy used to produce a unit GDP and carbon intensity is the amount of CO2 emitted for unit production of energy. The global population increased by a billion in just 12 years from 2000 to 2012 while it took almost 120 years (1800–1920) in the pre-industrial era for the same increase. In the face of increasing GDP which is needed for lifting billions out of poverty, this identity clearly indicates moderating the growth rate of global population and decreasing the energy and carbon intensity are keys to CO2 emission reduction and climate change mitigation. Declining energy and carbon intensity would mean progress in clean energy production and an increase in efficiency in energy production, respectively.

Technological innovations are needed urgently to ramp up the production of energy from renewable resources and to increase the energy efficiency. Huge investment in science and technology in carbon-free energy is the need of the hour as is evident from the fact that science and technology have done wonders in the last 2 centuries. Science and technology are the main reasons that the planet is able to support 7.4 billion today—that too, on an average comfortably when compared to the past. To give an example, the invention of the Haber-Bosch process, an industrial process for producing ammonia from nitrogen and hydrogen, and the subsequent use of fertilizer in agriculture and crop yield boost has prevented mass hunger and starvation deaths. The modern healthcare system, another achievement of science and technology, is responsible for a longer lifespan. The benefits of science and technology in energy system are all too visible in our homes and transportation.

The gains from science and technology in the 20th century have emboldened some to advocate artificial large-scale engineering solutions to undo one of the major environmental crisis: global warming. The portfolio of such proposed solutions is collectively known as geoengineering. They are broadly classified into two main categories – solar radiation management (SRM, Figure 1) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR, Figure 2) techniques. Some of the proposed SRM methods would place


Fig. 1: Schematic Representation of SRM (Solar Radiation Management)

Geoengineering Methods

Fig. 2: Schematic Representation of CDR (Carbon Dioxide Removal) Geoengineering Methods


reflecting mirrors in space, increase the reflectivity of the planet by artificially injecting aerosols into the stratosphere, or brighten the marine clouds by seeding them with sea salt aerosols. The basic idea is to reduce the absorbed solar radiation by an appropriate amount to cancel fully or party the temperature increase caused by anthropogenic greenhouse gases. The second class of techniques propose to artificially remove CO2 from the atmosphere using large-scale afforestation, ocean iron fertilization, accelerated weathering of silicate rocks, industrial chemistry to directly capture CO2, etc. While CDR methods address the root cause of climate change, SRM geoengineering solutions are more like “using one form of pollution to mask the effects of another” or a “patchwork” on the Earth system. Most of us would prefer to prevent climate change than cure a “sick” planet.

Since CDR methods are slow and costly, most of the geoengineering discussion now is centred on SRM methods that deflect incoming solar radiation to space. Prominent among them is the proposal to inject aerosol particles such as sulphates or calcium carbonate into the stratosphere and deflect about 1–2% of the incoming solar radiation. Several climate modelling studies have shown that geoengineering can markedly diminish regional and seasonal climate change from anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Though SRM is cheap and can rapidly cool down the climate system, it has some undesirable side effects such as weakening the global water cycle. It does not address “ocean acidification” which could be detrimental to marine life. SRM also commits us to maintain it (e.g. artificial aerosol layer in the stratosphere) for decades to centuries—until atmospheric CO2 levels fall to sufficiently lower values. If SRM fails or is halted, Earth could be subjected to extremely rapid warming with the rate of warming many times that of the current warming. Thus, human and natural systems could be subjected to severe stress following an abrupt termination of SRM.

It is important to note that the geoengineering solutions are still some distance away from being applied, and scientific opinion is divided over the need to deploy such methods. Geoengineering is a controversial idea and many are opposed to it as it involves not only science but also ethical and moral issues. Unlike conventional approaches to deal with climate change, geoengineering solutions do nothing to reduce concentrations of atmospheric carbon dioxide, the main reason for global warming. Many climate scientists are not in favour of implementing geoengineering but it is important to continue scientific research into it as all options should be on the table for solving the climate crisis. However, our first and foremost focus should be on carbon dioxide emission reductions. Several recent studies show that land management practices such as afforestation/reforestation, reduced deforestation and degradation and biochar are the best cost-effective climate change mitigation strategies with very little detrimental impacts on the environment.

Biodiversity and Climate Change—A Way Forward 20

20

Biodiversity and Climate Change— A Way Forward

S.B. Dandin Former Vice-Chancellor UHS, Bagalkot, Karnataka

(Presently) Liaison Officer, Project Office Bengaluru, Karnataka, India Bioversity International, Rome E-mail: [email protected]

iodiversity is the main source of raw material to meet all the four Fs namely food, fodder, Fuel and Fiber to sustain the life on the planet earth. Biodiversity is the

sum total of genetic diversity at intraspecies, species and ecosystems. Based on the need and purpose this has been classified into different types such as agrobiodiversity, forest biodiversity, marine biodiversity, etc. However agrobiodiversity which comprises of crops and forages, livestock’s agroforestry, forestry and other natural resources is considered very important for human welfare. Due to continuous anthropogenic activities to meet the diversified demand of fast growing population in the region on one hand and the threat posed by the climate change effects on the other have affected the ecosystems and habitat to the greater extent resulting in loss of biodiversity of both fauna and flora. As estimated by some of the early workers, one-third of the biodiversity has already been lost due to unpredictable disasters/natural calamities as a result of climate change effects. World geographical regions are divided into different agro-ecological zones with set climatic and edaphic conditions and specific component of biodiversity has been evolved, acclimatized and shaped in these specific regions which are in other words termed as evolution. Hence today’s genetic diversity of both fauna and flora is a result of constant interaction between genotype and environment (p = g × e). Vavilov (1928) a Russian scientist was the first to undertake large-scale phytogeographical survey and identified the centres of origin of crop plants. However, in course of time due to selection pressure exerted by human beings, the important crop varieties and the animal breeds were evolved and developed. Further, due to large-scale cultivation of few species namely rice, wheat, maize, potato and tomato of crop plants and domestication of five big livestock breeds namely cattle, sheep, goat, poultry and pork, the existence of other land races/wild crops and farmers varieties/breeds is very much threatened.

Climate change effects such as increase in temperature, altered/prolonged cycle of winter and summer, unseasonal rains, etc., have affected the physiology of growth, reproduction cycle pest and disease outbreak. As a combined effect of these, there is a disturbance in ecosystems and their services and in turn production and productivity

B


of crops and livestock. Unseasonal rains affect both sowing season and subsequent growth and flowering patterns of the many of the crop plants including horticulture crops. Heavy cyclonic wind storms, hail storms and heavy rain during harvesting period will affect the total yield and create an imbalance in the supply chain. The altered climatic situations alter the reproductive pattern of pest and diseases and many times resulting in an outbreak of disease and pests which cause huge damage to the quality and productivity of the crops. To ensure the food and nutrition security, safeguarding the biodiversity including the agro-biodiversity is imperative. Following are the few steps to be taken up jointly by all the concerned in this direction.

Exploration and Documentation of Genetic Variability in the Diversity Rich Centres

Exploration and documentation of existing genetic variability along with their wild relatives is the first step to understand the nature and extent of genetic variability. The GPS tool can be utilized to mark the exact location of the species and their wild relatives besides, documenting ecological and habitat details. As reported earlier, North-Eastern states, Western Himalaya, Desert areas of Rajasthan, Central India including Koraput Region, Western Ghats, etc., shall be explored by SAUs/Regional Research Stations. The information already available with Regional Stations of NBPGR/NBAGR/NBAIR shall be used for this purpose.

Documentation of Traditional Knowledge

Local tribes and farming communities are cultivating/maintaining these indigenous varieties and animal breeds since time immemorable. Several local food products of indigenous origin are very popular and being prepared and consumed till today. Hence, there is a need to document the recipes of local preparations. Some of the indigenous species/breeds also recognized as a rich source of nutraceutical and local medicines. For better exploitation and harnessing this biodiversity wealth of the country along with documentation of traditional knowledge associated with these species is imperative.

Characterization, DUS Guidelines and GI Tags

Though large numbers of indigenous species are known to exists, botanical/zoological description and other related details are available only for few. For better economic utilization of these species, there is an urgent need for detailed description, characterization and cataloguing all indigenous species which will help for mainstreaming of some of the potential species. Farmers are the custodians of the genetic variability of these indigenous species and there are several landraces identified and perpetuated by some of these farmers as a hobby. To recognize the efforts of such farmers in the conservation of landraces and local breeds is the prerequisite for the development of Distinctiveness, Uniformity and Stability (DUS) guidelines. Protection of Plant


Varieties and Farmers Rights Authority (PPV & FRA) is extending both technical and financial support to develop DUS guidelines. The local SAUs/Research Institute shall avail this opportunity and develop DUS guidelines. This effort would go a long way in recognizing farmers efforts of conservation. Further, local research organizations including Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVKs) shall also recognize farmers efforts and recommend them for “Gene Savior Awards”. There are quite a few examples of Geographical Indicators (GIs) of crop varieties and animal breeds registered in different parts of the country.

Food, Nutritional Composition and Economic Benefit Analysis Crops and animal breeds are being consumed every day in different forms and form an integral menu of daily food plate. Though, most of these species harbour vitamins, minerals, dietary fibre, etc., the food value data is available for very few popular crop plants and breeds while several of the indigenous species do not have food value information and remain underutilized without gaining popularity. To make the consumer understand and appreciate the nutritional value and dietary importance of species, there is a need for large-scale investigation and develop food value data as per the FAO standards. This effort would eventually result in the realization of high economic value to the growers/producers besides, enhancing the local demand from consumers. Further, some of the traditional crop species are also used for the medicinal purpose to cure few chronical diseases. However, the actual medicinal compound, the mode of action, biomedical evidence, bioavailability etc., need to be worked out.

Seeds System and Community Seed Banks Because of the modernization of agriculture, only a few crops are cultivated in larger area and breeds are reared in large herds resulting in the fast disappearance of traditional species and landraces. Along with them traditional seed system also vanished making farmers totally dependent on external agencies for seed supply. When the seed of required crop/varieties/race is not available as and when required, farmers tend to use the crops/varieties available easily in the market. Hence, the seed becomes the most important prerequisite for conservation, cultivation and consumption of indigenous species. In this context, the concept of Panchayat Seed Banks developed by MSSRF and Community Seed Banks (CSB) model of Bioversity International will come handy. In these methods, the seeds of the local crops grown by the farmers will be collected and preserved to be made available for the next cropping season. In the diversity-rich areas of crops and breeds, community seed/semen banks concept needs to be populari- zed for long-term conservation and perpetuation of the indigenous wealth of crops.

Conservation for Posterity In view of the large-scale habitat destruction and loss of biodiversity at a faster rate, conservation and augmentation of traditional crop varieties, landraces and their wild


relatives of both crop and animal species assume priority. Integrated conservation approaches/methods including in-situ/on-farm conservation, ex-situ conservation in gene banks and diversity parks, Zoological gardens, protected biospheres, plant and animal national parks/reserves assumes importance. Besides invitro/cryo-preservation of tissue, pollen, embryo and semen etc., has become dare necessity. In India NBPGR/ NBAGR/NBIAR FGR, ZSI, BSI, etc., with their Regional Stations are actively involved in conservation and regeneration of these rare, endangered and threatened species. Depending on the reproductive cycle and behaviour, suitable technologies have been developed. Since this is a herculean task, there is a need to support some of the crop/animal based Research Institute and Universities. Further Farmers and herd owners are mainly responsible for the identification, maintenance and perpetuation of the crop and animal biodiversity since time immemorial. Hence, the involvement of these custodian farmers and herd owners for on-farm conservation of landraces/breeds along with associated traditional knowledge has been accepted as cheapest and effective in-situ/on-farm conservation method. This will also help in networking the germplasm resources and their exchange. However, the on-farm conservation of biodiversity by various stakeholders is widespread and not documented in an orderly way. Hence there is a need for networking all such on-farm conservation activities by custodians for scientific and systematic documentation and proper use. Further conservation of wild biodiversity could be effectively done by conserving and maintaining ecosystems through biosphere reserves, national diversity parks, wildlife sanctuaries, protected forests etc.

Way Forward

Biodiversity is of considerable importance for nutrition, livelihood and economic benefits with built-in high commercial value. However due to climate change and uncertain climatic effects the existing biodiversity is facing grave danger. The loss of biodiversity ultimately affects the very human existence on the planet. Because of this reason large-scale discussions and debates are going on all over the world at different levels to adopt climate change mitigation and adaptation strategies. There is an urgent need to consolidate the available information of climate change on different crop and animal species in different agro-ecological and geographical regions of the world. There are some success stories of cultivation of climate resilient crop species and animal breeds which needs to be understood for replication elsewhere. This will help in developing similar approaches in adopting biodiversity conservation for posterity. Since the global warming effects are universal and affecting both crops and animals without any distinction there is a need to draw a network programme involving all stakeholders of different regions to work out suitable strategies for safeguarding the biodiversity which is common heritage of mankind. The guidelines developed under the strategic action plan of Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) shall be considered.

Architecture and Attitude—An Ecological Approach 24

24

Architecture and Attitude— An Ecological Approach

Sathya Prakash Varanashi Sathya Consultants, Bengaluru, Karnataka

E-mail: [email protected]

new awareness dawned on our generation more than a half-century ago when the publication of Silent Spring by Rachel Carson stirred up a controversy in the

chemical industry. Shortly thereafter, terms like Spaceship Earth, Global Village and such others were coined to represent the changing times. These were followed by influential books like Limits to Growth, Small is Beautiful, Steady-State Economics and by 1977 we even had a book titled, The Sustainable Society. Parallel to various texts by thought leaders of those days, conferences too were held, with the first major one being 1972 UN Conference at Stockholm and the recent ones being the annual Conference of Parties (COP) where all world leaders converge to discuss climate change. This early history of environmental movement proves that ecological concerns are not new, and also proves paradoxically, that even after half a century, we have not been effective enough in tackling the global climate crisis. Compared to the early decades when researchers and intellectuals predicted the problems more on instinct, apprehensions and scanty data, today we have hard data on every aspect of environmental degradation we are causing. More data pour in every day, making even the choice of study very difficult, leave alone taking a studied decision. It is time to act upon. One major sector to act upon is architecture, where we need to reduce the carbon footprint of the construction industry, which supposedly causes close to one-third of Global greenhouse gas emissions. To that end, we can build with eco-design options, alternate materials, green construction techniques and sustainable practices. This is easier said than done, for shifting to the alternatives demands a major shift in our attitudes.

This paper presents such an alternate attitude towards design, learnt from the theory and practice of eco-friendly architecture and personal experiences. In architecture, we get to learn more from contexts than from texts. As such, personal experiences rooted in projects designed and built become a better source of understanding, especially with reference to eco-friendly designs. To ensure that these experiences are replicable, they have been compiled as short principles, not in any specific order. There is no claim of originality in realizing or stating them as if no one else has ever said them.

A


Possibly, many subject experts have already spoken about and written about these principles, which one would like to acknowledge.

Trying a departure from the normally expected scholarly essay with technical points quoting from multiple sources, this text simply collates the insights gained by our firm Sathya Consultants across the last 24 years of consultancy practice. Naturally, intuition has played a larger role than calculation, knowledge has found greater application than information and common sense has taught more than critical theories. This is not to undermine the importance of information, calculations and theories, but an attempt to stay very basic and simple such that everyone would understand issues of being eco-friendly. Ideally, this text should be accompanied by hundreds of photos to illustrate the point being made, but it is hoped that the reader can also appreciate the text without photos. Hope this position will be acceptable to erudite scholars and sustainability experts. The imperative to explore more principles and find out why many of these common sense solutions get ignored in the mainstream architecture continues in our critical practice.

Eco-Sensitive Ideas do not get Accepted only on Eco Criteria

People passionate about sustainable architecture are increasing in numbers today, but contrastingly, so too are consultants frustrated by the negligible implementation of such design ideas. To understand this paradox, we need to realize that an idea, however great it is ecological, will not get built unless it is visually attractive, socially acceptable, affordable for the owners, doable by the team and promoted by the regulations. So, the challenge lies in fusing multiple criteria into the ecological platform.

Difficulty of Execution should not deter us from an Alternate Design

Majority of visitors to a house with mud, clay, bamboo, stone, skylight and such others praise it but hesitate to get one done for themselves. Even if potential owners consider them seriously, many architects and builders discourage such earth-friendly architecture citing difficulties in implementation, cost reduction resulting in lower profits and instil fear of cracks and leakages, all of which are also a part of mainstream buildings too. So, there are many myths perpetuated by the market. Unless we prove that the alternatives are just the same as the rest, no eco ideas will get executed.

Contextual Designs can also be Contemporary Expressions

Indian architecture today is dominated by modern designs largely rooted in western trends, many of which are not appropriate for our climate or culture. It is the name contemporary which seems to sell, designed by both architects and non-architects. Of course, there are architects who know how to design the contemporary in a commendable way, but they are far and few. We should and we can evolve our own


contemporary design approaches, suited to our contexts. Being rooted in a locality, it will be unique in its own way, hence will be accepted worldwide as a contemporary trend.

Image of the Building is Less Important than its Impact on the Environment

Every designer and project promoter would like their creation being appreciated, hence attempt to make it different, innovative and unique. Sadly in the process, the external appearances dominate the design thinking, with no concern for resources. We need to create new images for the spectator, but more importantly, care about meaningful impacts on nature.

Let the Buildings Breathe

Imperviousness is not a common phenomenon in nature, with all fruits, vegetables, trees, materials and animals living by breathing through nostrils, skin, bark or surface. The moment we apply cement mortar, chemical paints, aluminium cladding and such others to create boxes of artificial indoors, we are blocking the breathing. Besides increased resources to seal the space, they demand more energy for servicing them, the life of building reduces and increases life-cycle costs due to greater maintenance. Traditional architecture built with mud, wood, lime, tiles, stone and thatch breathed and lasted long.

Culturally Appropriate Plan and Climatically Appropriate Construction

Architecture is an expression of both the aspirations and construction, as such needs to balance between the two. Let the design be suited to the lifestyle, material to fit aesthetic choices, construction be eco-friendly and the overall appeal is one of the design attractions. Such an approach may lead to a sustainable future.

Rethink and Replicate Vernacular Ideas

The greatest sourcebook for sustainable designs lies in the local, contextual, rural and vernacular traditions. Unfortunately, this sector gets the least importance in professional courses, has minimal media coverage with very few consultants and construction teams interested in learning vernacular values. Modernity has led to many ecological problems, as such modernity alone cannot solve them, whereas tradition can provide some ideas to mitigate problems, both of local resources and global warming.

Minimize Manufactured Materials

If we can classify building materials as natural, processed and manufactured ones, it is the last category of manufactured materials that should be minimized. They typically


have very high embodied energy, hence are detrimental to energy sources and natural resources, besides producing a high quantity of waste during production. Until a few decades ago, most construction happened with natural materials and few processed ones like a burnt brick. It is time to return to them, further improvising them where possible.

Repairable Construction, Replaceable Materials and Replicable Designs

The famous RRR (Reduce, Reuse, Recycle) as a solution towards eco-friendly living has had reasonable publicity with some success too. However, the construction sector has generally ignored this dictum, building big, introducing new materials and rarely repeating an idea, however, appropriate it is. Architecture being an expression of owner aspirations as well, it may be difficult to force RRR’s, but we can attempt repairable construction, replaceable materials and replicable designs, which can go a long way in reducing greenhouse gas emissions due to the construction sector.

Lower the Embodied Energy, Greater the Sustainability Many sets of criteria have been introduced to assess and measure green buildings with varied types of certifications. Surely, they have led to many buildings consuming lesser resources, yet cannot assure that such green buildings can save nature. Given this, one overarching criterion could be to assess the sum total energy a construction project consumes, right from the raw material supply to disposal of debris when it gets demolished someday. This figure called as embodied energy is a key to sustainable future.

Designing by Intuition is as Important as Designing by Calculations The professions of architecture and construction have been transforming rapidly today, with greater dependence upon standards, systems, soft wares and procedures. Scientific advances have led to millions of data and calculations attempting to tell us precisely how to design. While their popularity is visible, the way they guarantee sustainable future could be questionable. We, of course, need calculations, as a checklist to design, as a means of testing our hypotheses and to validate our actions. However, total dependency on them may or may not result in an ecologically sensitive architecture. Hence, common sense can solve what creativity often cannot. Local wisdom can keep our actions appropriate. Personal intuitions can complement the professional standards.

Performance of the Building is More Important than the Perceived Design The architecture of the early history evolved from pragmatic approaches, functional needs and practical designs. There would have been considerations of concepts, visual appearances and such others to a much lesser degree. Today, the building industry is


more obsessed with how the design would be perceived by people, professionals and the media. The architecture of attraction is the rule of the day, with performance relegated to the back burners. Innovative designs with novelty are not less important, but perfection and performance are equally important if we are to shape a better future.

Learn from the Aesthetics of Nature

Humans have surpassed nature on many fronts. We have made products not found in nature, defied gravity in space travel, permanently altered physical characteristics of materials and built very beautiful monumental marvels in architecture. However, the beauty created by humans is yet to surpass the aesthetics of nature. Nature as an architect has created forms of such elegance, minimalism, endurance, appropriateness, contextual fit, continuity and such others, all of which will qualify to be sustainable. We need to learn from nature.

Every Design Decision should be Validated for its Ecological Sensitivity

In our modern urban living, we all use set of criteria to take individual and collective decisions. Today, monetary considerations like cost and savings tend to be dominant, both among the rich and the poor. For Mahatma Gandhi, the litmus test was about truthfulness, which he would apply to most decisions he would take. If we have to create a sustainable future, we all need a way of validation. We should check if every one of our ideas and actions are eco-friendly or not. If not, it is certain that we are harming nature.

Eco-Design is not Deciding how to Build, but Deciding how to Live

Ask anyone what are the decisions to be taken while getting a house done we will get answers to the number of rooms, budget, functional needs, materials, construction type and such others. Most of these could be eco-friendly, hence appreciable. In reality, construction contributes to only a small percentage of the resources the house consumes. If we look at the carbon footprint at large, it is directly proportional to the life cycle of the house and the lifestyle of the house owners. As such, ecological design is not only deciding how to build but deciding how to live.

Negotiating for Climate Justice: Quo Vadis? 29

29

Negotiating for Climate Justice: Quo Vadis?

M.K. Ramesh National Law School of India University, Bengaluru, Karnataka


his paper grew from the Keynote Address delivered in the Workshop organized and conducted by EMPRI, a few months before the Paris Agreement, 2015. The

context and the trajectories of development leading to the Paris Accord constitute the content of this write-up. This also highlights the nature of thrust and the extent of emphasis that need be given to in the Paris and future negotiations on Climate Change as to realise “Climate Justice”, that constitutes the core value, content kernel and goal of Climate arrangements. Concerned about the deviations, boobby-traps and red herrings put up by the developed world to dilute the intent and content of UNFCCC, a post-script as a strategy for developing countries, especially India, is proposed, in the section on “Post-Paris Strategy of Action for Developing Countries”, for check-mating such moves and for the realization of Climate Justice.

Earth Overshoot Day

Every year on Fifth of June, “Environment Day” is celebrated with much pomp and glitter. Very few know that there’s another day, termed as ‘Earth overshoot day’. It is the day that is marked to indicate and remind the humanity, how much the present generation has used up the meagre resources of the earth, much more than it should have. It is a grim reminder of the ecological debt, of the over consuming humans of what they owe to Mother Nature. This is the day on which the whole humanity is made to introspect over the destruction that is brought to finite resources of Mother Earth in its inestimable avarice, for economic development.

The Global Foot Print Network, an International Non-Governmental organization, measures the consumption patterns of different nations of the world as to how much they consume every year. It has been estimated that every year the global community consumes the earth’s budget for that particular year, long before the twelve months period. The more alarming information of concern is that year after year, the exhaustion of the year’s budget is occurring at a faster pace than that of the previous year. Like, for instance, the quota for the year 1970 got exhausted on December 23rd, in 1985 on

T


November 6th, in 2005 on September 3rd and in 2016 on August 8th itself. As a consequence of which, there is an overdraw of available reserves, to satiate the unquenchable thirst and the gluttonous hunger, during the remainder of the year.

The phenomenon of Climate Change, which is the result of the cumulative concentration of Greenhouse Gases (GHGs), symbolizes the adverse impact of this “Earth’s overshoot”. The factors responsible for this phenomenon are attributable to the “historic emissions” of the industrialized nations, as established and corroborated by scientific evidence.

Ecological Debt and Climate Justice

The debate over climate change issue began with the expression of a common global concern over climate change. The drastic change in the climatic conditions was triggered by the concentration of GHGs in the atmosphere. The accumulation of GHGs occurred primarily due to the industrial revolution (referred to as “historic emissions”), ushered in by the developed countries. Having the essential characteristic feature of getting locked up in the atmosphere for a pretty long time, the GHGs started impacting the global temperature, in an adverse way, over time, upsetting the natural rhythms of life, life forms and the entire environment. Thus, having been responsible for this phenomenon, the group of developed and industrialized nations, owe an obligation to the rest of the world and the environment (termed, “ecological debt”), to help build resilience to adapt, mitigate and improve the climatic conditions in the entire world to get stabilized to that of the year 1990, as agreed upon among the nations. It is the bounden obligation of the economically advanced ones that are responsible for having put the global climate under stress, to ensure “climate justice”. Clearing this “ecological debt” thus, it was realized, was the means of ensuring climate justice. This deal was struck through a global treaty of almost universal appeal entitled, “United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change” (UNFCCC), in the Earth Summit on Environment and Development at Rio de Janiero IN 1992, to effectively address the “common concern” of humanity and secure “our common future”.

UNFCCC Frame UNFCCC is a legal benchmark, for a variety of reasons. It has, arguably, the largest number of subscriptions of Nation-States to an international arrangement. It has captured the imagination and support of every conceivable economic, social and political grouping of communities of people, besides all the Permanent Members of United Nations, as its votaries. Even the U.S., which has “walked in” and walked out” of the Kyoto Protocol of 1997 and the Paris Agreement of 2015, has ratified the Framework Convention, without any Reservations, continues to remain bound to it. As further reiterated under the Paris Agreement, any new arrangement concerning Climate Change, that would come in to effect from January 2020, will have to be


within the letter and spirit of the 1992 Framework Convention. As such, UNFCCC has the unique status of a new international legal order from which no derogation is tolerated. It is the touchstone, for authentication of any arrangement on the subject and the pole-star to guide and steer all future deliberations for action.

The Framework law is held together by two basic and non-negotiable principles namely: 1. The principle of Common But Differentiated Responsibilities (CBDR). 2. The principle of equity.

The immutable Guiding Principles establish the rule that while Climate Change remains a global concern (and so, the responsibility of everyone, without any exception, not to contribute any further to aggravate the situation), those who are primarily responsible should take a greater burden of setting things right. The responsibility includes the imminent need to switch over to GHG neutral (popularly described as “carbon neutral” or cleaner mechanisms) technology to mitigate the climate crisis. More importantly, they have the additional responsibility of building the capacity of the developing countries, in resilience to and mitigation of adverse impact of climate change, besides contribute to help them adopt new technologies (clean development mechanism) so that the climatic conditions would stabilize to pre- 1990 condition. This they should be able to achieve by making available technical and financial assistance by dedicating and ear-marking a small percentage of their annual GDP, spread over a period of two decades time. The Principle of CBDR is to operate at two levels. Between the Developed Annexure I Countries and the Developing Countries, the differentiation is that while the former has not only the obligation to reduce its “carbon footprints” (by adoption of carbon-neutral technology) but the obligation of hand-holding the developing ones and build their capacity in that regard, as well, the latter has only the obligation of adoption of Clean Development Mechanism, with the help of the former. The responsibility gets differentiated within the Annexure I Group, on the basis of the extent of historic contributions made to the concentration of the GHGs by each one of them. Thus, the U.S., for having contributed to about a third of the GHGs, had to undertake the responsibilities of reduction of generation of it and extend assistance to the developing ones, in the same measure. The Principle of Equity commands the victims of Climate Change namely, the group of island nations (among nations) and the poorersections of people (among the communities of people), the world over be helped to get over the trauma and acquire capacities of adaptation and resilience to climate change. All this, under the Framework Convention, was required to be accomplished in two decades time.

Kyoto Protocol and its Demise It took the member countries five years, to work out a formula for implementation, in the form of the Kyoto Protocol, 1997. It laid down the formulae of Joint


Implementation, Emission Trading and Clean Development Mechanism. The first two of these concerned the Annex-I countries and the third was for the Developing Countries to adopt with the assistance of the Annex-I countries, designed to build their resilience and capacity in adapting to and mitigating climate change. The U.S. walked out of the obligation. The U.S. walked everyone into the framework convention for Climate change, but walked out of it, when it mattered, making the rest of the world to take on its burden. The United States of America who was contributing to one-third of the global carbon emissions, walked out for a simple reason that they were ready to talk about principles but not ready to take on the responsibility. The argument put forth by it wasthat a number of leaders among the developing countries, like India and China, also needed to take on the responsibility like the Annex-I countries because their contribution to climate change was on the ascent. Since this was not happening, it decided to abandon its Climate Obligation. For long, the arrangement could not take off. When it did in 2008, it was a little too late and its impact too little to be of significance. It is true that in the short span of about five years that climate change arrangement worked, India was, without doubt, a beneficiary. It came up with proposals and projects to bring in GHG neutral measure initiatives for which international funding and also technical assistance was made available to carry out projects. Among the nations of the world, India and China were the greatest beneficiaries of this particular exercise. In terms of starting, implementing, executing, getting benefits for most of the projects, India stood number one. But none of these even touched the surface as the nature and extent of assistance and the time period within which it was made available, were grossly inadequate and to scale up the above-mentioned activities, India needed more resources and technical assistance. By the end of the year 2012, the Kyoto Protocol expired. Besides the other factors, the short span of time that was made available for the Kyoto Protocol to work,did neither facilitate nor enable any country to achieve anything of consequence to realize the objectives of the Climate Treaty.

Developments Leading to the Paris Agreement

While the Kyoto arrangement was on, a few parallel developments took place to breathe the much needed fresh air into the Climate Negotiations. The return of U.S., to the Negotiating Table, catalyzed the process. Between the years 2009–2015, Global Negotiations revived to strike a new deal to meet the increasing challenge of Climate Change. Negotiations started half a decade back and at the end of this year (2005), between 30th November to 5th December in Paris, global nations are supposed to conclude a “Global Climate Package” which will be a combination of an international legal agreement with legal force and a set of principles and future projections as to how to deal with climate change, within the ambit of UNFCCC.

At the threshold of the new arrangement, it is appropriate to recall, the consensus arrived at under the Framework Convention, as to development demands of the


developing countries. It was agreed that equity demanded, the developing countries not to be denied the right to economically develop, notwithstanding the Climate Change compulsions. Resilience measures and measures for adaptation, in them, need have to come through contributions from the developed countries, as part of clearing the ecological debt of the latter. But, when the whole world was in agreement with this principle of equity, the biggest contributor to the problem, the United States of America, chose to walk out of this arrangement. This was one of the reasons why even by 2012, the world still could not achieve much success in Climate Change management.

With the return of United States to the Negotiation Table, a breakthrough for a new deal started taking shape. The U.S. and the European Union allied to centre-stage their positions, as the determining factors for a new climate deal. The two points of view that influenced in shaping and determining the future negotiations are as follows: 1. The first viewpoint is that of the European Union. It has taken the position in

veryclear and unmistakable terms that the world needs to act now, and clear goals need to be set up for every country, without any exception, for either developed or developing countries. If a few nations needed any particular help or assistance, then it need be provided, through an assessment and determination as to how much assistance be made available internationally and by working out the details by consensus through further negotiations. By this, they have a protocol worked out (i.e. Kyoto 2 Protocol) with a little modification from the 1st Kyoto Protocol, in which some of the leading developing countries like India and China need to accept the same kind of responsibility as the developed world. This means India can expect nothing out of the protocol. In terms of the outcomes from these negotiations, European Union is going to have its way and India gets nothing. Instead, it will be required to undertake certain responsibilities.

2. The second position and posturing are that of the United States of America. Its formula is that each State can voluntarily fix their limits without any compulsion, by developing a domestic Climate Action Plan. Through this, each country needs to show and demonstrate to the world how much they can reduce, build capacity, adapt, mitigate and stabilize the Climate Change impacts and give projections which are voluntary as there will be no compulsions till 2030. They can work out their own mechanism and goals, but results need to be shown. By this country like India can also show to the rest of the nations what they can do to mitigate the adverse impact of Climate Change. Through this internal management with a cumulative effort internationally, it can be shown that efforts are being undertaken to bring down the adverse impact of Climate Change. The clever projection of this position, put forth by the US would mean, in practical terms, two things: that, (a) the US, for the time being, is not ready to take any more obligation, which means ecological debt is forgotten and equity would have no place in the whole


scheme of things. Instead, (b) in this entire exercise, there is space for every nation to adapt to Climate Change Programme through their own voluntary measures without any compulsion. These individual plans and programmes, with clear targets, can then be consolidated to be presented as the collective will of the community of nations by the end of 2015. It also proposed, through collective efforts, a Climate Action Fund be set up, to be available for use in developing the capacity of underdeveloped nations. A case was made for engaging everyone, including Private Enterprise to partner and help nations achieve the goals. As can be seen, this design too would offer no hope for India or for Climate Justice.

The Strategy Adopted by India for Paris Summit

There are about seventy developing countries which are referred to as LMDC’s (Like Minded Developing Countries) and India is the leader of that. As a leader, India has come up with a set of clear-cut suggestions as to what should steer the climate change negotiations in the Paris Climate Change Summit, strictly in line with UNFCCC. There should not be any violation of that, as all the nations are bound to the broad principles of the framework convention and, across the board, the protocol binds all the nations without any exception. By retaining the two principles i.e. Principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and Principle of equity, a strategic action plan can be shaped around these basic principles. The overall emphasis ought to be that the developed countries have an ecological debt to pay India and other developing countries, not as charity but as a right that they richly deserve, to ensure climate justice.

Post-Paris Strategy of Action for the Developing Countries: Concerned over the deviations, boobby-traps and red herrings, put up by the developed world to dilute the intent and content of UNFCCC, during and after the Paris Agreement, a post-script, as a broad strategy for developing countries, especially India, is hereby proposed in the efforts in firming up of a legal arrangement to come into effect from January 2020, to seek and secure Climate Justice.

While India went to Paris making a strong bid for equity in the new Climate Deal, concerted efforts were made by many of the developed countries to sabotage the same. The “Paris Agreement, 2015”, that resulted was more of proposals and programmes of action, to be further negotiated upon, with a number of options open for further negotiations, within the ambit of UNFCCC and finalized at the threshold of 2020. Whether the new accord being fashioned from Nov.’ 15 till dawn of 2020, would ensure the centrality of the Principle of Equity or end up as a Climate Deal sans Justice? The answer obviously to this question depends to a large extent on the position the leaders of the developing nations, especially India take in achieving the primary objectives of the UNFCCC. A few reflections are attempted in this paper to suggest the approach that needs to be taken by countries like India in working out the nuts and bolt in of the Paris Agreement.


As has been agreed by all parties the principle of ‘Common But Differentiated Responsibilities’ and “Equity”, that form the foundation of the UNFCCC, remain the driving force and core content on the new arrangement. This is, as encapsulated in the Indian position that the “Climate Agreement is for Climate Justice”. Every conscious effort should be made in the coming days in sticking to these lines, giving no room for any manoeuvring by the developed nations to render the spirit of the negotiation, nugatory.

Equity in the context of negotiations involves the following: (a) Restoration of status quo ante to the climate affected nations and communities.

This means compensating, restoring and rehabilitating them from all hardships and difficulties caused primarily by the Green House Gases for which Annexure-I nations were primarily responsible.

(b) Bridging the gap of development desired, during the period. (c) Putting them onto the bandwagon of environmentally responsible development

by making available finances and technology required for the purpose.

The Principle of CBDR in the present context means the following: (a) Clearing the ecological debt by those, who owned it, but have not been able to

come out of it, for a variety of reasons till now, within a timeframe. (b) Being accountable for the delay in clearing the debt, without any further excuse,

by making additional contributions as a measure of reparation, expiation and penal sanction.

(c) Making contribution for mitigation of adverse impacts, developing resilience by way of insurance cover, to insulate against further damage and facilitate adaptation to change, in favour of the developing countries.

(d) Contributing towards building capacity in the most vulnerable communities both in mitigation and adaptation.

These two aspects should have to constitute the core value of the content of the new arrangement and it is the bounden duty of the developing countries to pursue them, without compromise, till it is accomplished.

These do require making enormous concessions to the rigid regulation of Intellectual Property Rights when it comes to transferring of cleaner technology, by creation, maintenance and management of a corpus fund, drawn from the contributions of Annexure-I countries. There has to be an open and transparent process of verification of working of this arrangement through a steering and monitoring body, guided by a set of guidelines. The steering body should invariably be chaired by a representative of the developing world and composed of members from different groups, the majority of whom should be drawn from the developing and less developed countries. The monitoring body should, however, be composed of those possessing the expertise


in the respective areas of Climate Change Adaptation, Mitigation and Resilience. But, even within this, the Chairmanship should remain with the representatives of the developing countries. A case has to be clearly made, for getting the lion’s share of the benefits of the new deal to be made available for the most vulnerable ones. Without this, there would be no climate justice.

In specific terms, nations which have a large number of poor, underprivileged and vulnerable communities populating them should derive the maximum benefit. India with over a quarter of the global poor, living within it, requires and deserves a large chunk of the initial contribution to achieve the goal. Having been able to demonstrate what it can achieve, without an initial assistance, like stitching the grand 123 nation alliance covering solar and research energy initiative, such a measure of more assistance to India would not only lift the teeming millions of the unfortunate victims of Climate Change, in this country but, at the same time, through this measure, would lend a helping hand of assistance to capacity building activities, where ever required.

In addition, small island nations and archipelagos require immediate attention and an action plan for implementation without any delay and within a given frame of the next five years of implementation of the new agreement, ought to be forged. Impact of Climate Change being acutely experienced in these regions, with both actual and notional “sinking feeling” already being experienced by this group, there exists no time to waste in empty deliberations. It calls for immediate action, without excuse.

There has to be a clear message sent to a recalcitrant nation like the United States that there cannot be any more opportunity for any nation to walk in and walk out of initial agreements as and when they desire. There has to be a clear imposition of a penal sanction, operable with immediate effect on such nations for past deviance with a clear warning that the future instances of non-conformity, with a solemn commitment made earlier, would result in enhanced penal sanctions, the quantum of which would be many times over the observance of commitments made. There is to be a no compromise over these and it is not impossible for the world community to enforce the sanctions. This has been achieved in the earlier instance, quite effectively. For example, on the Human Rights front, when the practice of apartheid led to the clear and effective imposition of global sanctions on social, economic, cultural and on sports, fronts successfully, to make the guilty come round. Short of this would be nothing but the perpetuation of climate injustice, as is prevailing now.

The Paris Agreement: A Common Future 37

37

The Paris Agreement: A Common Future Aastha Suman

Advocate, Bengaluru, Karnataka E-mail: [email protected]

here are many expectations attached to the Paris Agreement on climate change, finalized during the 21st meeting of the conference of parties in December 2015

(hereinafter the “Agreement”) and being a successor to the Kyoto Protocol, it remains the only hope for us to prevent our planet from heating beyond redemption. However, in its present form, the Agreement has been labelled by environmentalists as a ‘political compromise’ between the developed and the developing countries1 rather than being an environmentally sound document. The recent developments where the Trump administration in the United States of America has denounced its validity and the Chinese administration’s objections to the Agreement have only proved that even this political compromise may not stand the test of time.

The Agreement is based on each country declaring its voluntary self-set targets (called “intended nationally determined contributions” (INDC)).2 The INDCs by way of a “ratchet mechanism” are to be reviewed every 5 (five) years and it is hoped that they shall be made more ambitious progressively.3 However, the Agreement puts no binding obligations on a country to either meet its INDCs or to make them more ambitious over time. Also, there are no punitive sanctions put on a country if it decides to abandon its INDCs. Most developing countries rely on financing and technology transfer to the developed countries to meet their INDCs but the Agreement once again fails to put any binding obligations on the developed countries in this relation.

The competing concepts of “common but differentiated responsibility”4, “climate justice” and “right to development”5 all find a place in the Agreement but they remain meaningless as long as the implementation of the Agreement is dependent on voluntary INDCs and on the generosity of developed countries sharing their technology and providing finance. However, the concept of ‘peaking year’ and the formulation of the 1 Robert Falkner, The Paris Agreement and the new logic of international climate politics, International

Affairs 92(5), September 2016, pp. 6, 7. 2 Article 3 of the Agreement. 3 Article 4(9) of the Agreement. 4 See the Preamble, Article 2 and Article 4 of the Agreement. 5 See the Preamble of the Agreement.

T


long-term goal recognizing that developing countries will peak their emissions later than the developed ones does offer some respite.

The difficulty in reaching a common agreement, strong enough to bring about strong curbs in the emission levels can be attributed to the differing stands taken by countries of the world. The United States of America believes that China and India have very high overall emissions and should take up as much responsibility for climate change as other developed countries. While China and India counter this line of argument, by stating that it was the industrialization of the developed countries which has resulted in the global warming. Between these two sides, the real losers seem to be the small island nations and the poor nations of Africa, Asia and Latin America.

In this paper, the author has presented a legal analysis of the Agreement. Initially, it has been argued that replacing Agreement with a stronger and legally binding multilateral treaty may be more in the long-term interest of humanity. However, keeping in view the political deadlock surrounding the issue, the author has in parallel argued that India and other like-minded countries may in the meantime make the most of the Agreement and lobby actively for technology transfer and finance.

The Paris Agreement: A Legal Analysis

Unlike the Kyoto Protocol, the Agreement is not a protocol under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), though it does apply to only the parties of UNFCCC, which choose to ratify the Agreement.6 Technically, the Agreement is a multilateral environmental treaty governed by international law, however, to avoid the treaty needing clearance from the United States Senate it has been read as an “international agreement other than a treaty” and is adopted pursuant to the UNFCCC. It is implemented based on the existing United States Clean Air Act and other American legislation and is interpreted as not imposing any new substantive obligations, thus requiring no senate clearance.7

Being governed by the international law alone, the Agreement is limited by its very nature. International Law is at best a weak law,8 which is dependent more on political compromises and alliances than on strict black letter of the conventions, customs and judicial decisions. Last year we witnessed that a powerful country like China could ignore the directions of the Permanent Court of Arbitration in regard to the South China Sea dispute and nine-dash line.9 There have also been instances of United States 6 Supra. 7 Daniel Bodansky, Legal Options for US acceptance of a new climate change agreement available at

https://www.c2es.org/.../legal-options-us-acceptance-new-climate-change-agreement.pdf, last visited at April 3, 2017.

8 Jack L. Goldsmith and Eric A. Posner, The limits of International Law, Oxford University Press, p. 225. 9 Permanent Court of Arbitration, South China Sea Arbitration Award of 12 July 2016.


of America ignoring the directions of the International Court of Justice. For instance, in regard to the military and paramilitary activities against Nicaragua case.10

This implies that any multilateral agreement between nations concerning global warming and climate change shall also face similar hurdles in lieu of the international law being a weak law and no better mechanism can be put in place without the political will. For instance, history has borne witness to the failure of the successive international environmental conventions from the Kyoto Protocol, which saw countries like the United States of America refusing to take on any obligations and countries like Russia, New Zealand, and Japan did not take on any commitments at all in the second commitment period.

Keeping in view this limitation, the author has analyzed the language and the formulation of the Agreement in the following sections.

Language and Drafting

The author has observed that the Agreement has been drafted in a broad language which puts no specific obligations put on any of the parties. The concept of INDC has been devised to stave off responsibilities and international scrutiny rather than to bring about a lasting change. For instance, the current INDCs of 158 countries have the potential to limit warming to 2.7°C by 2100, if all governments meet their pledges.11 It is thus apparent from the outset that the Agreement would fall well short of the goal to limit global mean temperature rise to below 2°C, not to mention 1.5°C.

Another flaw in the language of the Agreement is unclear responsibilities being spelt out for the developing and the developed countries. For instance, with respect to the developed countries, the responsibility mentioned is that “they should continue taking the lead by undertaking economy-wide absolute emission reduction targets”, while the developing countries are called upon to “continue enhancing their mitigation efforts, and are encouraged to move over time towards economy-wide emission reduction or limitation targets in the light of different national circumstances.”12 It may be noted that no specific language on the extent of involvement has been mentioned in the Agreement. Also, though the preamble of the Agreement includes a reference to human rights, gender equality and a just transition, references to the same in the operative agreement are missing.

10The case concerning the military and paramilitary activities in and against Nicaragua (Nicaragua v. United

States of America) (merits), judgment of 27 June 1986. 11INDC Synthesis report available at http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/indc-synthesis-report-

press-release/http://newsroom.unfccc.int/unfccc-newsroom/indc-synthesis-report-press-release/ last visited at April 1, 2017.

12Article 4(4) of the Agreement.


However, on the positive side the Agreement does lay down an outward commitment level to well below 2 degrees temperature goal, and to pursue efforts to limit increase to 1.5 degrees.13 The very acknowledgement of 1.5 is a hard-fought victory for the small island nations, but the rest of the deal provides little confidence it will be achieved. Also, the inclusion of a long-term goal of net zero greenhouse gas emissions during the second half of this century14 is encouraging, but the reference to a “balance” between emissions and removals/sinks of greenhouse gases raises concerns about the potential implications for land use and food security. Despite its rather weak formulation, a reference to the need to address “displacement related to climate change” has been captured and could provide a basis for further work and potentially a “coordination facility” in a future conference of party decisions. This will specifically help the small island nations and countries like Bangladesh which have the threat of submergence under the rising sea levels. All in all, a delicate balance between environmental needs and the development agenda of the various countries are a continuing theme of this Agreement.

It should be also noted that the Agreement contains several elements aimed at avoiding potential adverse social and environmental effects of forestry impacts. These are covered in the preamble of the Agreement, where Parties “recogniz[e] the fundamental priority of food security” and “not[e] the importance of ensuring the integrity of all ecosystems [...] and the protection of biodiversity”. The parties further agreed that they “should, when taking action to address climate change, respect, promote and consider their respective obligations on human rights”. Despite the fact that these elements have been weakened due to their placement in the preamble and their wording, they nevertheless underscore the relevance of already established safeguards and will hopefully guide any future land-use activities under the Agreement.

Funding Issues

There appear to be no definite funding obligations on specifically developed countries and the language merely says that “developed countries shall support developing country which will allow for higher ambition in their actions.”15 The Agreement does not strengthen commitment by developed countries but repeats their obligation to provide financial resources for continuation of existing UNFCCC obligations. It encourages others to contribute on a voluntary basis.16

There is a silver lining though, as the Agreement does clearly recognize the need for mobilizing investments to trigger the transition toward low-carbon and climate-resilient 13Article 2(1)(a) of Agreement. 14Article 4(9) of the Agreement. 15Article 4(5) of the Agreement. 16Article 9 of the Agreement.


development17 has been acknowledged as a purpose of the Agreement. Pursuant to the decision at the conference of parties in Paris, the developed countries are required to extend finance of up to $ 100 billion to developing nations by 2025 to mitigate and adapt to climate change, after which a new goal will be set for post-2025 finance mobilization, with $ 100 billion as a floor.18 However, due to lack of clarity in the Agreement, this remains a vague goal that no country can be held accountable to make the requisite contribution.

Weak Sanctions

Most importantly, the Agreement has no provisions on sanctions placed on countries for not adhering to obligations. Theoretically, countries can choose weak targets as part of their INDCs and may midway refuse to fulfil even those. In these circumstances, the Agreement becomes useless.

However, the Agreement does provide for periodic reviews, where peer pressure shall be used as a tactic to force compliance by deviant countries. Sanctions in international law have always been weak and developed countries have often chosen to avoid their obligation. In such a scenario, the mechanism of ‘naming and shaming’ during periodic reviews may be the only viable option. The naming and shaming create a reputational risk through the establishment of mandatory transparency and review provisions, but this means little too powerful and rich countries. Separately, despite a weak formulation, the Paris decision introduces some accounting criteria to enhance the reporting of climate finance, which has enhanced accountability to a large extent.

Adaptation

Another triumph of this Agreement is that it stresses on adaptation activities. It states that all adaptation action should follow a country-driven, gender-responsive, participatory and fully transparent approach, taking into consideration vulnerable groups, communities and ecosystems.19 More importantly, action on adaptation is to be reviewed and accelerated every five years in parallel to the contribution cycles for mitigation.20

However, while the need for substantial adaptation finance has been recognized in the Agreement, it does not include a collective, quantified goal for adaptation finance. The Agreement has not established an adaptation climate finance target for either pre 17Article 2(1)(c) of the Agreement. 18Report of the Conference of the Parties on its twenty-first session, held in Paris from 30 November to 13

December 2015 available at https://unfccc.int/resource/docs/2015/cop21/eng/10a01.pdf last visited at August 1, 2017.

19Article 7(5) of the Agreement. 20Article 7(10) of the Agreement.


or post-2020 (either quantitative or qualitatively). Even if governments came back to the negotiating table in the next five years to increase their emission cuts, the developing countries would still face huge adaptation costs per year by 2050. Overall economic damage to developing country economies under a 2°C scenario is especially thought to be devastating.

Also though the Agreement features an article on loss and damage as insisted by the developing countries,21 the decision text contains a clause that excludes the concept to be used as a basis for compensation and liability claims. The legal implications of the clause in the Paris conference of parties decision on the exclusion of liability or compensation in connection with loss and damage remains a concern and need to be further explored. It is important to note that the exclusion clause only refers to what the Article provides for, not a general exclusion on loss and damage liabilities.

Giving Teeth to the Paris Agreement

As argued in the last section, the Agreement has failed to create a strong arrangement backed by sanctions to achieve the goals of limiting greenhouse gases and its impact on the earth. An explicit commitment to increasing overall effort is missing, and the lack of any meaningful trigger to raise ambition in the 2020–25 as well as in the 2020–2030 period is of particular concern. In this section, the author attempts to find solutions for strengthening the Agreement while remaining within the four corners of the Agreement.

Firstly, it may be noted that even though the mechanism for increasing the ambition of the Agreement is very weak, with peer pressure this can be changed. The Agreement itself envisages a ‘facilitative dialogue’ in 2018 to ‘take stock’; and a ‘stock-take’ in 2023 (and every five years thereafter) to ‘inform’ governments ‘updating and enhancing’ their efforts. The countries which do not achieve their targets will face naming and shaming at the conference of parties, where a review of INDCs shall take place.22 Beyond the current round of INDCs, there’s a welcome commitment to 5 year cycles of target setting with each target representing a progression on the last year.

Secondly, it is required to build upon the Warsaw Mechanism for Loss and Damage (WMLD) as the Agreement itself states that the said mechanism may be enhanced and strengthened in the future and continued, following a review in 2016.23 The decision at the conference of parties further requests the executive committee of the WMLD to establish a task force to develop recommendations for dealing with climate change-related displacement. These recommendations need to be taken seriously and 21Article 8(1) of the Agreement. 22Jorge Vinuales, The Paris Agreement: Initial Examination available at https://www.ejiltalk.org/the-paris-

climate-agreement-an-initial-examination-part-iii-of-iii/ last visited on July 30, 2017. 23Article 8(2) of the Agreement.


it should be made sure that the task force is constituted in time and given powers to evaluate correctly the displacement related costs.

Thirdly, one must build on decisions like installation of a clearinghouse for risk transfer, as had been proposed by developed countries. This reflects initiatives outside the UNFCCC, such as the G7 Climate Risk Insurance Initiative, which is to cover 300 million people in developing countries with climate risk insurance.24

Fourthly, fact that the Agreement features a separate article on REDD+, which refers to reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation in developing countries is very encouraging. It clearly recognizes the role of conservation, sustainable management of forests, and enhancement of forest carbon stocks in developing countries. This is very positive. This must be seen especially in light of Article 4 of the Agreement, which introduces the concept of greenhouse gas emissions neutrality. In this context, REDD+ activities might be used to assist countries in achieving their climate change mitigation contributions. More specifically, with results-based pay- ments being explicitly mentioned in both the agreement text and the conference of party decision, there is a risk that readiness activities, which are a precondition for undertaking results-based activities, might be disregarded.

Fifthly, it is essential that all countries must put their INDCs through a Paris credibility test to see whether they have put enough on the table to meet the ambition of keeping warming to 1.5°C. Specifically, change in political power in the United States of America, should not be allowed to hijack the efforts of the Agreement. This can be achieved by counter efforts of G-7 countries. Furthermore, carbon pricing, a growing area of interest for many governments must become a reality in a way that delivers real emissions cuts.

Also, the Agreement should be extended to new sectors like shipping and aviation. The respective governing bodies International Maritime Organisation and International Civil Aviation Organisation now must come forward with immediate proposals for emissions reductions that withstand the Paris 1.5°C.

Sixthly, the concepts of polluter pay principle, the precautionary principle and the public trust doctrine is required to be further developed. Recently, Uttarakhand High Court has developed the concept of declaring certain rivers of India as living rivers, with powers to sue any party for polluting it. Such innovations in the field of environmental law are most welcome.

Seventhly, the international community should build on the momentum delivered by efforts from the World Bank and International Monetary Fund to work towards a

24G7 Climate Risk Initiative, available at http://newsroom.unfccc.int/lpaa/resilience/g7-climate-risk-insurance-

initiative-stepping-up-protection-for-the-most-vulnerable/ last visited at July 23, 2017.


common approach on fair carbon pricing, whether these are taxes or markets, and ensure that a share of the revenues benefits the most impacted people. Climate change, and in particular its risk element, also needs to be integrated in a more systematic way in investment decisions, companies reporting, rating agencies work and other macro- economic forecast and models.

Eighthly, there is need to see even more leadership in the private sector. Corporate social responsibility initiatives should mandatorily invest a certain amount for mitigation and adaptation activities. The private sector should adopt science-based emissions reductions targets, and make individual pledges to help achieve the goals of the Agreement. The trade associations or business associations should hold discussions on climate change and use peer pressure tactics to discipline the industry. Equally important is for companies to face up to the reality of the scale of challenges of adaptation and resilience, especially in the sectors of energy, consumer goods sector, finance and insurance.

Furthermore, the citizens must hold governments and the private sector accountable. The civil society will have to multiply further in its mobilization and diversity, as politicians are lagging behind the real curve. They should use the Paris provisions as the benchmark to challenge domestic lack of action, possibly in local court, and continue effective campaigning, both at the grassroots level and push big and powerful players.

Conclusion

The powerful governments have failed to put our common interest above that of narrowly defined and short-term interests of individual economies, as is evident from the above discussion. While the Agreement may easily be criticized for setting ambitious objectives but failing to actually deliver, any assessment of the Agreement needs to be based on an understanding of what international processes can actually deliver. It is understood that diplomacy does not happen in a vacuum, and what could not be achieved internationally, can be achieved by efforts at the grass root level. Lessons must be derived from the failures of Kyoto Protocol and the success of Montreal Protocol on ozone depletion.

Our generation will be questioned by our children and grandchildren to come for lack of foresight and courage to deal with an imminent threat to the very existence of life on earth. We as citizens need to take hold of our own destiny, and not repeat the mistakes our ancestors made. Sustainable development achieved by economic, social and environmental sustainability is the only way forward.

Climate Change Communication in Vernacular Language is a Challenging Proposition… 45

45

Climate Change Communication: Case Study of Developing

a Community Primer in Kannada Somashekhar B. Srikantiah

Foundation for Revitalization of Local Health Traditions (FRLHT), Yelahanka, Bengaluru, Karnataka


limate Change is often considered an unobtrusive issue that most people are unable to grasp since it is a phenomenon which is described on large temporal

and spatial scales. Environmental Educators and Science Communicators recognize this unobtrusiveness to be due to many factors inherent in the complexity of the subject, its description, and various impacts being visualized. Consequently, these factors pose difficulty in communicating climate change concerns to different audiences. The Scientific community has long acknowledged the importance of communication in respect of climate change, while most of the climate change information for the general public is made available through the media. However, the mass media have a tendency to focus on the risks and disastrous consequences of climate change rather than on the curious and noteworthy elements of climate science. Therefore the prevailing understanding of climate change among the common citizenry is often incomplete and with many wrong notions.

The unique and novel initiative for climate change communication, taken up by our team in the form of developing a Community Primer on climate change in Kannada, offers a case study of developing a user-friendly learning tool on climate change for the use of the frontline forestry staff. This primer has presented the complex subject of climate science in a vernacular language with necessary elaboration but without losing the essence of the subject. The core contents were drawn from authentic published sources, and the primer serves as a user-friendly tool to strengthen the working capacities of the target audience, in respect of climate change and forest conservation. The Primer presents the different aspects of climate change and its consequences on environment, society and biodiversity elements, as well as mitigation mechanisms, in a simple language and easy-to-comprehend style. The prototype has undergone field testing and received interesting positive feedback about its significance in meeting the learning needs of the target audience. This Primer has demonstrated that the complex

C


environmental subjects like Climate Change can be effectively communicated to meet the learning needs of the no-formal learning groups like field forestry staff.

Climate Change is an Un-Obtrusive Subject

Climate change in the recent decades has become a subject of priority world over, attracting the attention of governments, triggering a spurt of research in the academia, and inciting the interest among the common citizenry. Despite its significance and the urgency with which it is to be addressed in the context of environmental conservation, climate change is often considered an “unobtrusive” issue that most people are unable to grasp first-hand (Rogers and Dearing, 1988). At least three reasons are assigned to this “un-obtrusive” nature, by the scientific fraternity.

Firstly, as is known climate change is a phenomenon which is described on large temporal and spatial scales. Scientific fraternity admits that “climate” is the average weather conditions over a period of 30 years in a region. Such long time period and large area become the elements far beyond the understanding of the common citizenry. It is mostly invisible and what is visible, though confusingly, are the changes in weather patterns which may or may not be linked to climate change trends (Rogers and Dearing, 1988).

Secondly, the available descriptions of climate, its changes and other related issues are largely scientific in nature, with several technical terms which are quite unheard of, in the everyday parlance of common citizenry. Added to it, many fundamental principles of climate science having their roots in physical sciences, geological sciences and atmospheric sciences, each with their own measures, models, and heuristics, make the subject complex. Although there exists a widely shared consensus about the basic features of anthropogenic causes of climate change it is also true that the scientists cannot predict with accuracy how climate change will manifest itself in different regions and what are the most effective measures to mitigate climate change under such contexts.

Thirdly, the consequences of climate change which pose major risks to the human societies too appear more as ‘virtual’ rather than the real ones, depending on where in the world one lives and on how much one can ‘afford’ to think about these issues. This is particularly so with the consequences which lie in the future and are likely to affect some select regions severe than others. Since Climate Change is largely a supranational endeavour, addressed at international meetings (such as Conferences of the Parties (COPs) to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change –UNFCCC), it fails to become a priority issue for the common citizenry. All of this only makes the subject of climate change to be one of profound complexity and difficult perceive.

Climate Change Communication: Case Study of Developing a Community Primer… 47

Challenges of Climate Change Communication

Most governments agree that climate change is now inevitable, anthropogenic in origin, and it is time to get practical over climate change. However, since climate change and its manifold implications are not easily perceivable to many target audience group, communicating climate change, therefore becomes a difficult proposition, assert the science communicators (Nerlich et al., 2010). It is said that climate change communication, itself becomes a complex initiative- due to the complexity of climate change science on one hand, and on the other the complexity involved in communicating it.

Climate change communication becomes a subject of special consideration, as it draws its principles and essence from different disciplines such as social and cognitive psy- chology (which studies human attitudes to risk, strategies that can be used to trigger behavior change, mental barriers and predispositions), communication science (which provides contexts and approaches to communication) and social studies of science (which investigate the interactions between scientists, the media, policymakers and stakeholders).

Communicating Climate Change to ‘Public’ is Quite a Challenge

Although the subject of climate change implies an element of urgency for communication, as a part of the adaptation and mitigation strategy, it is surprising to note that, climate change issues in the mass media are represented in highly varied manner. Another interesting premise associated with climate change communication is that, although climate change is a global phenomenon, response to its issues by the common citizenry would be shaped by the varied social systems and norms in the regional societies. Thus, almost all research on the communication of climate change has focused on the Western social contexts and norms, with little consideration of how the issue is being framed in other countries (Billett, 2009). Communication efforts across the world have slowly changed their focus from persuading people that climate change is happening to persuade people to adopt practical measures to deal with it, note the science communicators.

The role of the mass media in ‘framing’ and re-forming climate change issues, whether scientific or political, has been well established (Billett, 2009). Although the mass media is regarded as the ‘gatekeepers of information on climate change’ (Carvalho and Burgess, 2005), many environmental communicators have pointed out that, the ongoing communication initiatives tend to focus more on the catastrophic nature of climate change and its consequences (Somashekhar, 2015) rather than on the ‘exciting’ elements of the different natural phenomena of climate science. Such communication sounds to a reader, it is argued, more as an ‘alarm’ dabbed with awe and fear, and therefore fails to make the expected impact about climate science, and alienates the audience from developing an appreciation for this new science. Likewise, the Western


mass media have highlighted the ‘climate scepticism’ (Billett, 2009), rather than the social responsibility of the citizenry. For instance, in the USA, Boykoff and Boykoff (2004) found that up to 50% of articles and stories on climate change in the mass media doubted either its existence or anthropogenic origin.

Climate Change Communication in India

The situation in India in this regard is not quite different. The available source of information on climate change to most people in India is the mass media. It is to be noted that much of the climate change news and stories in the mass media relies on the scientific reports and press releases issued by different scientific institutions and government agencies for the want of authentic information, and therefore tend to remain more as technical pieces of information which are not-easy-to-comprehend. Adding to the complexity, the contexts and examples used in such technical reports mostly correspond to the western hemisphere and therefore fail to make the Indian readers relate themselves with the focal issues of climate change in India. Added to the problem is the non-availability of authentic information in the local language.

This is due to the fact that, the available examples and contexts relevant to climate change in India are very few. One of the focal topics in the context of climate change in India is Himalayan glaciers. However, since the understanding about a glacier is also beyond the comprehension of a common man, the impact of climate change on Himalayan glaciers remains a distant example. The threat of flooding in the Himalayan foothills due to the melting of glaciers, as indicated in the Fourth Assessment Report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2007) and potential monsoonal changes and sea level rise around the low-lying coastal areas, however, are the other focal issues of climate change in India.

Yet, contrary to the North American and European press which focused on the scepticism about the anthropogenic nature of climate change and its consequences, the Indian press has entirely endorsed climate change as a scientific reality (Billet, 2009). The English-language press in India considers climate change as a priority socio-environmental issue, rather than reducing it to a distant scientific process. By paying close attention to the environmental rather than scientific aspects of climate change, the press has focused their discussions closely on the impacts and risks posed by global warming it is argued (Billett, 2009).

Impact of Climate Change on Forest Resources in India

Climate Change research in the recent years from all around the world has, for the first time, shed light on the impact and consequences of climate change on biodiversity and forest resources. Parmesan and Yohe (2003), Root et al. (2005), and Parmesan and


Hanley (2015) offer interesting overviews of climate change drivers and its impact which is manifested as a change in species distribution, range shifts, altered population structure, disturbed phenology cycles and such ecological processes. Many studies have also predicted the species vulnerability and suggested mitigation models (Parmesan, 2007).

However, a rapid review of such studies indicates thatmajority of them focus on landscapes and species of the temperate world, while a corresponding understanding from a tropical region, especially of India, is quite cursory. Such limited number of studies from the tropics attempt to shed light on the impact of climate change and futuristic predictions in respect of a) Agricultural crops (Rathore et al., 2001; Vedwan and Rhoades, 2001; Kumar et al., 2004; Mall et al., 2006; and Srivastava, 2013), b) Forests and forest types (Ravindranath and Sukumar, 1996, 1998; Sukumar et al., 1995; Ravindranath et al., 2006, Xu et al., 2009; Negi et al., 2012, Shrestha et al., 2012; Chandrashekhara, 2015). While these studies discuss certain critical issues related to climate change predictions for the tropical region, they correspond to the overall forestry sector of the country and the Himalayas but do not cover any specific biological taxa. Contrary to the surge of research data related to the phenology and range shift of different forestry species and biodiversity from the temperate world, similar datasets from India are almost absent.

Likewise, the availability of user-friendly information and communication material on Climate Change in the vernacular language, which is accessible to field forestry staff, the picture is not so encouraging. Environmental communicators have pointed at the inherent difficulty associated with Climate Change Communication (Roser-Renouf and Maibach, 2010 and Dillon, 2011). Apart from the context based news coverage in the mainstream media, availability of reliable and comprehensive literature on Climate Change, especially in local languages like Kannada, is almost absent (Somashekhar, 2015).

All of this only shows that the focus of climate change research on its impact on forest resources in India is still in its infancy as compared to the temperate world. Con- sequently, a thorough understanding of climate change among the forestry staff and other stakeholder groups in India has still not emerged. This situation thus offers an excellent opportunity to environmental communicators and writers to fill the void, by way of developing need-based literature and learning the material on climate change issues, in Kannada and other regional languages.

This paper reports a case study of developing a Primer in Kannada on climate change and forest resources, for the use of frontline field forestry staff of Karnataka.


Need for Developing Proper Understanding of Climate Change

The general tendency among the common citizenry is to relate weather vagaries to climate change, along with a string of questions which evoke an element of bewilder- ment: “Is it Global warming or Global climate change?”… “Are these two separate phenomena or one leading to the other?”… “Do they imply some catastrophe? What will be our fate”… “Is it true that the land mass and much of the coastline will get submerged by the rising sea?”… “Is it true that the forests will vanish and animals go extinct due to Climate Change?”... “How would our environment be in future?”—Such and similar questions continue to ponder but fail to get convincing answers, for the want of proper information.

Prevalence of such incomplete perceptions but increased interest among the common citizenry and other stakeholder groups establishes the urgent need to help them develop a proper understanding of Climate Change. Developing such an understanding becomes essential and urgent especially in the forestry sector, on the premise that: 1. Climate Change exerts significant influence on forests. 2. Scientific understanding of Climate Change would enable the frontline forestry

staff to develop relevant working knowledge and skills. 3. Such understanding would, in turn, equip them to address the emerging needs of

developing climate change mitigation mechanisms for overall forest conservation.

Furthermore, since climate change is considered to adversely impact forest resources, with consequent changes in the livelihoods, a comprehensive awareness about its impact, among the forestry staff becomes essential for strengthening and widening their working capacities in respect of climate change and forestry conservation.

Developing a Primer on Climate Change in Kannada

Knowledge products in the form of Community Primers developed in vernacular language and user-friendly form, which makes available authentic and comprehensive information on local environmental issues, have been shown to serve as effective learning tools to enhance the understanding of field forestry staff and non-formal learning groups in Karnataka, in respect of such focal environmental issues (Somashekhar, 2012).

In order to address the knowledge gap about climate change, among the field forestry staff of Karnataka, a proposal to develop a Primer in Kannada on climate change and forest resources, in a form and language that is user friendly, was made to EMPRI, and accordingly, considering the need, a small grant was sanctioned by EMPRI to TDU, Bengaluru.


Primer is Essentially a form of Literature for Easy Comprehension

A ‘Community Primer’ may be described as a “Comprehensive theme-specific Monograph” that introduces a focal scientific theme to a lay person, in a simple language without diluting its core substance; it offers a simplified digest of the focal subject, by compiling all the relevant information and making a synthesis of it, so as to enable the reader to get a grasp of the subject hitherto unknown, and develop a proper understanding of the same. The Information is presented in a form and language familiar to the reader, i.e., in ‘easy-to-comprehend’ style, with familiar examples and analogies. “Illustrated Primer” has been considered as a reliable learning material cum self-study tool in non-formal Conservation education interventions. Relevant information would be provided in an appealing style to meet the learners’ context. The learning contents would be made available based on the learning needs, both perceived and actual. The focal subject matter would be appropriately illustrated with visuals, graphics with sufficient examples and relevant anecdotes.

This primer aims to bring together authentic information on global climate change from various published sources and is expected to serve as an effective tool to communicate global climate change a subject which is otherwise abstract and unobtrusive. This information of the higher level of intellect in Kannada made available in an easy-to-read style is expected to enhance the working capacities of the frontline forestry staff and community groups in Karnataka in respect of forest resources in the context of climate change.

This Primer is the first of its kind user friendly document in Kannada, on Climate Change that provides comprehensive overview of Climate Change and related issues, especially the Climate Change drivers, global warming, greenhouse gases, science behind climate science, manifestation of climate change and its consequences, impact on forestry resources, biodiversity and landscapes, response of forest plants and wildlife to climate change, and Climate change mitigation mechanisms.

Objectives

Objectives of this small grant project for developing a Primer on Climate change were the following: To develop a Community Primer on Climate Change in Kannada, based on the

available information drawn from published sources, for the use of Field Forestry staff, to provide necessary orientation and create interest in them about climate change and its impact on forest resources.


To introduce to ‘basic understanding and concepts’ of Climate Change so as to enable the field forestry staff to relate climate change issues with forest conservation.

To provide specific information, guidelines, field strategies so as to equip the field forestry staff to address the emerging needs of Climate Change mitigation strategies.

Methodology of Developing the Primer

Based on our earlier experience of developing community primers on different focal environmental and conservational issues of the Western Ghats (Somashekhar, 2011), and reframing the methodology as followed in these endeavours with necessary modifications to suit the requirements, we developed a working strategy for developing the Primer. The team followed the sequential stages as below, in order to reach the end product: Identifying the perceived learning needs of the target audience. Identifying the corresponding core contents to fulfil these needs. Necessary literature search and compilation of relevant information about the

core contents from published sources. Processing of raw data/information and its conversion to make a synthesis (story

template). Developing the contents in Kannada and presenting it under relevant chapters

along the story template to ensure proper flow of the subject. Necessary editing, rewriting of the draft. Page designing with illustrations/visuals to prepare the Prototype. Field testing of the prototype with the intended target audience.

Prevailing Understanding about Climate Change among the Field Forestry Staff

In order to actually understand the learning needs of the target audience, a need assessment exercise was conducted keeping the forester trainees from the Forest Training School, Ilawala, Mysore, as the study group. A simple questionnaire that attempts to assess the understanding of the trainees about different aspects of climate change, was developed and administered to 15 trainees randomly chosen from a batch of 60 forester trainees undergoing the induction training at the Forest Training school. The survey brought to light many interesting findings as below: As expected, the terms, ‘Weather’, ‘Climate’ and ‘Atmosphere’ were interchange-

ably used by the trainees to indicate what is ‘Climate’. Likewise, terms such as ‘Climate change’ and ‘Global warming’ were also perceived as analogous to each other.


In respect of the understanding about different manifestations of ‘weather’, it was noticed that only rainfall and daily temperature were indicated as the constituents of weather while ignoring other features such as clouds, wind speed, and multiple forms of water present in the air.

In respect of the personal experience of climate change, the participants over- whelmingly claimed that they had a first-hand experience of ‘climate change’. However, what they were actually indicating was they had seen weather vagaries, unpredictable monsoons, the rise in summer temperature, and flash floods. It only proved that the common tendency is to very quickly relate the weather vagaries and seasonal fluctuations of weather to ‘climate change’.

A very poor understanding of the causes and drivers, especially in respect of Greenhouse gases was noticed. Even among the greenhouse gases, the significance of methane and water vapour was ill recognized. The rise in the daily temperature was equated with global warming and it was assigned to CO2 emission from vehicles. Understanding about CO2 emission from other sources was almost nil.

Likewise, the understanding of the intricacies and the impact of climate change was quite weak. Consequences in the form of range shift, altered phenology, melting of glaciers, sea level rise, ice age, etc. were not heard of by many.

The tendency was more of “Problematic elsewhere, safe locally”. Likewise, their focus towards, responsible environmental behaviour as a means of

addressing the climate change issues was also not seen.

This assessment was helpful in developing an overall picture of the prevailing understanding of climate change among the field forestry staff and helped us to formulate the necessary focus of the chapters of the Primer. Thus, the primer chapters specifically focused on certain key concerns and questions of the following kind. 1. Scientific understanding of global warming climate change. 2. Difference between climate and weather, climate variation. 3. Science of climate change: causes, drivers, greenhouse gases. 4. Impact of climate change on vegetation and landscapes. 5. Responses of biodiversity to climate change. 6. Altered growth and productivity patterns of forests biodiversity. 7. What are the ecological changes due to climate change? 8. Altered forest landscapes due to climate change. 9. Climate change adaptation and mitigation strategies. 10. How to recognise ‘climate change sensitive’ species? 11. How to integrate climate change mitigation mechanisms with forest management

strategies? 12. Citizens role in adapting to climate change.


Section I: Overview of ‘Climate Change’ and its manifestations; drivers and causes of global warming; contributing factors to the rise in atmospheric Carbon dioxide concentration. Science of the Climate Change. Section II: Comprehensive Profile of the Consequences of Climate Change. Overview of the changes in the environment, landscapes, and biomes due to climate change. Manifestations of climate change: melting of glaciers, sea level rise, altered monsoons. Consequences of climate change: submerging coast line, salt water inundation, loss of habitats, migration of species. Section III: Comprehensive Profile of the Response of Biodiversity Elements to Climate Change the impact, modifications in productivity trends. Species ‘sensitive’ and ‘tolerant’ to Climate Change, and their salient features. Section IV: Ecological Models and Future Scenario—overview of ongoing Climate Change research; Future prediction models. Climate change mitigation mechanisms and strategies for future. Section V: Monitoring the Ecological Response of Forest Species to Climate Change—simple ecological exercises to record the response of forest plants. Section VI: Specific Case Studies and Examples from Indian Climate Change Research in Forestry.

Answers to these questions were provided in the different chapters, which were spread over 6 sections (box).

Different Stages of Primer Development

Literature Search: A thorough literature searching was carried out in order to gather comprehensive data sets and information chunks about climate change and related aspects. Various technical reports, research publications, monographs, and other documents of global and national importance, published by different research institutes, government agencies, and researchers from different parts of the world were gathered. All the latest technical reports prepared by the different working groups of the Inter- governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) were consulted. Websites of different agencies (such as NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory, NASA’s Earth Data, NOAA Pacific Marine Environmental Laboratory, National Academy of Sciences, and US Global Change Research Program, in the USA, Royal Meteorological Society, England and Royal Society, London), were consulted for authentic information on the latest findings. Various technical reports and other periodical communications prepared by the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change (MoEF and CC) Govt. of India, EMPRI and Teri were also consulted. Additionally, semi-technical periodicals such as Anthropocene and Conversation, which exclusively speak about environmental


issues and climate change, were sifted through for the latest updates. All these information resources and published works served as a significant information bank for the primer.

Developing a Storyboard: An appropriate storyboard was developed to accommodate all the key questions under focus. Once the information resources were available, necessary and relevant information on the focal themes and sub-themes was extracted and these were placed on the storyboard to develop a crude synthesis. Subsequently, contents of this digest were used to prepare short essays in simple language, highlighting the core topic and related subtopics under the broad focal subjects.

Developing the Zero Draft: These short essays were subsequently rendered in Kannada and strung together under theappropriate section which makes the whole story of different chapters, to form the zero draft. Necessary embellishments and exaggerations were used to introduce and elaborate the core contents. Appropriate examples and anecdotes that can enhance the nativity of the language and regional context were included at this stage to make the subject attractive and appealing. Iterative re-articulation of the paragraphs was done to ensure that, the focal subject flows as smooth as possible leading to easy readability. Appropriate facts and figures were included to strengthen the subject being discussed. ‘Unknown’ elements of a subject were introduced with the help of the corresponding ‘known’ elements, to ensure the focal subject is better understood by the reader.

All possible care was taken to make the subject as appealing and attractive as possible. The chapters were reread and thoroughly edited in order to make the core contents as much crisp and comprehensive as possible. Necessary re-writing and iterative corrections were carried out on the chapters to make them more user-friendly. Additionally, In order to attract the attention of the reader, the focal subject of a chapter, was reflected in the chapter title in an interesting manner. Some of the core themes and the respective chapter titles are as below:

Core Subject of the Chapter Chapter Title Climate and Weather ‘Expected v/s Actual’ Greenhouse effect ‘To wrap a thick blanket all over Earth’ Greenhouse gases ‘Treasure trove hidden deep under the seas’ Global warming ‘Mercury rise of 0.8° does a 104° fever!’ Species range shift ‘Going southward or Is it northward?!’

Developing the Illustrated Prototype of the Primer: Once the zero draft was ready, the draft was taken up for page designing. Relevant visuals, graphics, pictures and illustrations were inserted into the chapters to make the subject visually appealing. Necessary page designing of the chapters was also done.


Peer Review and Field Testing of the Primer Prototype: Subsequently, the prototype was circulated for peer review and taken up for field testing in the presence of subject experts and representatives of the target audience. Select portions of the primer were given to the representatives of the target audience and were asked to go through it. A structured feedback was sought from them about the subject coverage, clarity about the core contents, narration and presentation of core subject, readability, and contribution to the readers’ understanding of the subject. Following are the key points that came out during the field testing: The prototype draft was very well appreciated for the novelty of subject presenta-

tion and its coverage of the subject details, as well as the timeliness bringing it out. The readers acknowledged that the complex subject of climate science has been

presented in a simple and lucid manner; it was easy-to-comprehend and quite comprehensive as it offers a thorough overview of the issues and concerns related to climate change.

Front Cover of the Primer Inside Page from a Chapter


The readers agreed that it made a good reading, as the information was presented with effective narration. The content presentation was quite apt.

Although the information was quite elaborate with all the necessary details, it could be presented in two successive parts, in order to avoid the information load, the feedback pointed.

Providing finer details of climate change and its impact may be delayed, the feedback reiterated.

It also felt that local examples included in the Primer are quite sufficient and relevant and therefore help understand the subject better; however local experience of climate change could be added.

Frequent exposure to the subject is necessary in order to familiarize oneself with the subject, the feedback pointed.

Conclusion

Climate change being a new focal subject of global concern is often considered “un-obtrusive” and therefore becomes a subject far beyond the easy comprehension of the common citizenry. Different reasons have been assigned to this situation. Climate change communication to the public, therefore, becomes a difficult proposition. In India, comprehensive understanding of climate change is still missing among the public and other stakeholder groups, especially the field forestry staff. Inaccessibility to authentic information about climate change in a local language and easy-to-comprehend style is one factor that contributes to the incomplete understanding of climate change.

The unique and novel initiative for climate change communication, taken up by our team in the form of developing a Community Primer on climate change in Kannada, offers a case study of developing a user-friendly learning tool on climate change for the use of the frontline forestry staff. The core contents of the primer were drawn from authentic published sources brought out by IPCC, and other major research institutes, government bodies, and research publications. This primer has presented the complex subject of climate science in a vernacular language with necessary elaboration but without losing the essence of the subject. This unique primer serves as a user-friendly tool to strengthen the working capacities of the target audience, in respect of climate change and forest conservation. The Primer presents the different aspects of climate change and its consequences on environment, society and biodiversity elements, as well as mitigation mechanisms, in a simple language and easy-to-comprehend style. The prototype has undergone field testing and received interesting positive feedback about its significance in meeting the learning needs of the target audience. This Primer


has demonstrated that the complex environmental subjects like Climate Change can be effectively communicated to meet the learning needs of the no-formal learning groups like field forestry staff.

Acknowledgement

The author is grateful to Mrs. Ritu Kakkar, IFS, Director General, EMPRI, for providing the small grant to carry out this novel initiative. He is thankful to Shri Vinay Kumar, IFS, director, Dr. O.K. Remadevi and Dr. M. Manjunath of EMPRI’s Climate Change team for facilitating the project progress. Thanks are also due to Shri D.K. Ved, IFS (Rtd.) Advisor, TDU, and Darshan Shankar, Vice-chancellor, TDU, and his team members for their constant encouragement. Thanks are also due to Dr. R. Vasudeva, Forestry College, Sirsi, and his students who facilitated the peer review and field testing of the primer prototype; to Ms. Ganashri, RFO, Forest Training School, Ilawala, Mysore and her batch of forester trainees who facilitated the need assessment exercise.

References [1] Aram, A. (2011). Indian Media Coverage of Climate Change. Current Science, 100(10):

1477–78. [2] Billett, S. (2009). Dividing Climate Change: Global Warming in the Indian Mass Media.

Climatic Change. doi 10.1007/s10584-009-9605-3. [3] Boykoff, M.T. and Boykoff, J.M. (2004). Climate Change and Journalistic Norms: A

Case Study of US Mass Media Coverage. Geoforum. 38, 1190–1204. doi:10.1016/j. geoforum.2007.01.008.

[4] Carvalho, A. and Burgess, J. (2005). Cultural Circuits of Climate Change in UK Broadsheet Newspapers, 1985–2003. Risk Analysis, 25: 1457–1469. doi:10.1111/j.1539-6924.2005.00692.x.

[5] Chandrashekara, U.M. (2015). Climate Change Mitigation Strategies in the Forestry Sector of Kerala, India. International Journal of Advancement in Remote Sensing, GIS and Geography, Vol. 3, No. 1a: 29–37.

[6] Dillon, J. (2011). Communicating Climate Change. Kings College, London. [7] Kumar, K.K., Kumar, K.R., Ashrit, R.G., Deshpande, N.R. and Hansen, J.W. (2004).

Climate Impacts on Indian Agriculture. Int. J. Climatol, 24: 1375–1393. doi: 10.1002/ joc.1081.

[8] Leemans, R. and Eickhout, B. (2004). Another Reason for Concern: Regional and Global Impacts on Ecosystems for Different Levels of Climate Change. Global Environmental Change, 14: 219–228.

[9] Mall, R.K., Singh, R., Gupta, A., Srinivasan, G. and Rathore, L.S. (2006). Impact of Climate Change on Indian Agriculture: A Review. Climatic Change, 78: 445–478.

[10] Moser, S.C. (2010). Communicating Climate Change: History, Challenges, Process and Future Directions. WIREs Climate Change, 1, 31–53.


[11] Negi, G.C.S., Samal, P.K., Kuniyal, J.C., Kothyari, B.P., Sharma, R.K. and Dhyani, P.P. (2012). Impact of Climate Change on the Western Himalayan Mountain Ecosystems: An Overview. Tropical Ecology, 53(3): 345–356.

[12] Nerlich, B., Koteyko, N. and Brown, B. (2010). Theory and Language of Climate Change Communication. WIREs Climate Change, 1: 97–110.

[13] Parmesan, C. (2007). Influences of Species, Latitudes and Methodologies on Estimates of Phenological Response to Global Warming. Global Change Biology, 13: 1860–1872.

[14] Parmesan, C. and Hanley, M.E. (2015). Plants and Climate Change: Complexities and Surprises. Annals of Botany, 116: 849–864.

[15] Parmesan, C. and Yohe, G. (2003). A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Impacts across Natural Systems. Nature, 421: 37–42.

[16] Rathore, L.S., Singh, K.K., Saseendran, S.A. and Baxla, A.K. (2001). “Modelling the Impact of Climate Change on Rice Production in India”, Mausam, 52(1): 263–274.

[17] Ravindranath, N.H., Joshi, N.V., Sukumar, R. and Saxena, A. (2006). Impact of Climate Change on Forests in India. Curr Sci., 90(3): 354–361.

[18] Ravindranath, N.H. and Sukumar, R. (1996). Impacts of Climate Change on Forest Cover in India. Commonwealth Forestry Review, 75(1): 76–79.

[19] Ravindranath, N.H. and Sukumar, R. (1998). Climate Change and Tropical Forests in India. Climatic Change, 39: 563–581.

[20] Rogers, E.M. and Dearing, J.W. (1988). Agenda-Setting Research: Where Has It Been, Where Is It Going? Annals of the International Communication Association, 11(1): 555–594.

[21] Root, T.L., Price, J.T. and Hall, K.R. (2003). Fingerprints of Global Warming on Wild Animals and Plants. Nature, 421: 57–60.

[22] Roser-Renouf, C. and Maibach, C. (2010). Communicating Climate Change. In: S. Priest (Ed.). The Encyclopaedia of Science and Technology Communication. Sage Publications.

[23] Schafer, M.S. and Schlichting, I. (2014). Media Representations of Climate Change: A Meta-Analysis of the Research Field. Environmental Communication, 8(2): 142–160.

[24] Shrestha, U.B., Gautam, S. and Bawa, K.S. (2012). Widespread Climate Change in the Himalayas and Associated Changes in Local Ecosystems. PLoS ONE, 7(5): e36741. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0036741.

[25] Srivastava, R. (2013). Effect of Global Warming on Agricultural Systems. American-Eurasian J. Agric. and Environ. Sci., 13(5): 677–682.

[26] Somashekhar, B.S. (2012). Development of Environmental Literature in Kannada Based on the Findings from Select Conservation Action Projects, as a Means of Need-Based Environmental Information: Case Study from Uttara Kannada. Invited Theme Paper Presented at “2nd Indian Biodiversity Congress-IBC 2012”, 9–11 December 2012, Bangalore.

[27] Somashekhar, B.S. (2015). Jnana Gangothriyinda Nano Sangathiyavarege: Eradu Mahamajalugala Madhye Vistharisida Kannadada Vijnaana Sahitya (Kannada). In: Anantharamu T.R. (Ed.): Adhunika Kannada Sahitya Charithre Vol. 14. Vijnaana-


Tantrajnaana (History of Modern Kannada Literature). Kannada Sahithya Parishat Centenary Publication Series. Kannada Sahithya Parishat, Bengaluru, pp. 29–80.

[28] Sukumar, R., Suresh, H.S. and Ramesh, R. (1995). Climate Change and Its Impact on Tropical Montane Ecosystems in Southern India. J. Biogeography, 22: 533–536.

[29] Vedwan, N. and Rhoades, R.E. (2001). Climate Change in the Western Himalayas of India: A Study of Local Perception and Response. Clim Res., 19: 109–117.

[30] Xu, J., Grumbine, R.E., Shrestha, A., Eriksson, M., Yang, X., Wang, Y. and Wilkes, A. (2009). The Melting Himalayas: Cascading Effects of Climate Change on Water, Bio- diversity, and Livelihoods. Conservation Biology, 23(3): 520–530.

The Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Insect Pests 61

61

The Possible Impacts of Climate Change on Insect Pests

A.K. Chakravarthy* and K.S. Nitin

Division of Entomology and Nematology, Indian Institute of Horticultural Research Hesaraghatta Lake Post, Bengaluru, Karnataka

*E-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT: Climate change is a variation either in the mean state of the climate or variability in its components, persisting for an extended period. It encompasses temperature increase, sea-level rise, changes in precipitation patterns and increases in the frequency of extreme weather events. These changes have drastic impacts on the economy of agriculture-based, biodiversity-rich countries like India.

Biodiversity and climate change are closely linked with each other and impacts one another. The impacted habitats hold less biodiversity of arthropods than non-impacted habitat-patches. For instance, the paddy beetle; Hispa armigera has attained a major pest status in paddy growing tracts of South East Asia. Similarly, the elongated scale insect, prey upon pigeon-pea by infesting the crop under higher temperature conditions. Under the normal day temperature, the scale insect does not attack the crop. Another example is that of the leafhopper complex on mango plant, where the pests have caused greater losses in fruit yields. Likewise, the mealybug infestations on fruit crops like grapes, papaya, custard apple and cultivated palms have exacerbated due to higher temperature conditions.

Keywords: Climate Change, Biodiversity, Pest, Temperature

INTRODUCTION ne of the most impinging natural events in the recent times has been the climate change. Climate change is a variation either in the mean state of the climate or

variability in its components, persisting for an extended period. It encompasses temperature increase; sea-level rise, changes in precipitation patterns and increases in the frequency of extreme weather events (Hamilton et al., 2005). These changes have drastic impacts on the economy of agriculture-based, biodiversity-rich countries like

O

SECTION 3

Research Papers


India (Sharma, 2010; Dhaliwal et al., 2004). Insects are cold-blooded, most speciose animals (Coviella and Trumble, 1999). The temperature of their bodies is approximately the same as that of the environment. Therefore, the temperature is probably the single most important environmental factor influencing insect behaviour, distribution, survival and reproduction. Insect life stages predictions are most often calculated using accumulated degree days from a base temperature and biofix point. Temperature is the most important factor inheriting insects (Bale et al., 2002). It has been estimated that with a 2°C temperature increase, insects might experience one to five additional life cycles per season (Yamamura and Kiritani, 1998). Moisture and CO2 effects on insects can potentially have important considerations in a global climate change setting (Hamilton et al., 2005; Coviella and Trumble, 1999; Hunter, 2001; Sharma, 2010; Dhaliwal et al., 2004, 2010). Human activities have been identified as likely contributors to global as well as regional climate change (IPCC, 2001). To understand the impact of climate change, it is essential to assess the climate’s sensitivity to a variety of factors on insects and in this paper, the focus is on the insect pests. The monitoring data of insect pests are not available in most of the developing countries and the software models developed for prediction analysis are not effective against insect pests.

MATERIALS AND METHODS Observations for about two decades (1990–2010) in field surveys on insects in relation to weather parameters in select cultivated ecosystems were recorded in South Karnataka, South India (Table 1). Shifts in the insect pests on cultivated crops, patterns of their distribution and intensity of pest infestation on cultivated crops were monitored. For the purpose, standardized procedures of insect sampling, insect counting and damage assessments were made. Details of the techniques and procedures are available (Kogan and Herzog, 1980). The observations will focus issues of climate variability at the regional or local level. The working hypothesis states that understanding local perceptions of farmers affected by climate variability will yield useful insights into the impact of climate change in the long term.

As documented information on the impact of climate change on insects in India is scanty, efforts were made to review the literature on implications of climate change on insect pests and pest management from electronic media: websites, networks, e-journals and through e-mails. Information was also collected through print media: books, journals, brochure, leaflets, manuals and practical kits. In addition, interactions with entomologists working on insect pests and pest management in India on select crops were made. Several interactive sessions with experts on climate change from Indian Institute of Science, Indian Institute of Horticultural Research (IIHR), University of Agricultural Sciences, Meteorological Department, Indian Meteorological Depart- ment (IMD), Government of India and scientists from Atmospheric Sciences, in Bangalore were held.


Table 1: Crops and Insect Pests Impacted by Climate Change from 1990 to 2000 and from 2000 to 2010 in South Karnataka

Crop (Location) Insect Pests

Change in Weather Impact/Infestation 1999–2000

(Max. and min. tem.

°C)

2000–2010 (Max. and

min. tem. °C) 1999–2000 2000–2010

Rice (Mandya) BPH Numbers/hill (Mean of 10 9 4 hills)

32.00 and 24.50

33.82 and 25.70

5 winged and 6–8 apterous hoppers per clump

11 winged and 8–12/ clump apterous hoppers

WBPH Numbers/hill (Mean of 10 9 4 hills)

32.00 and 24.50

33.82 and 25.70

Not recorded/recorded in rainfed rice in negligible numbers during summer only

2–3/clumps in kharif, rabi and summer

Mandya Srirangapatana (Var: Jaya)

Hispa (km2spread)/year

32.00 and 24.50

33.82 and 25.70

Restricted to Majjigepura and two adjacent villages and Spread in 1,180 ha

Spread over 3,000 ha

Cotton (Arboreum) (Hunsur)

Whitefly and mealy

30.20 and 21.40

33.85 and 28.00

Whitefly = 69.90 17.80%

(Mean of 10 9 5 Pls/insect

bug (% plants infested)

Mealy bug = 2.40 13.50%

pest/field/2 Shimoga (Jayadhar)

(Mean of 10 9 5 plants/insect pest/field 9 2)

Mango Chickballapura (Local)

Leaf hoppers (% infestation) (Mean of 10 9 5 plants/field 9 2)

30.45 and 22.00

33.65 and 26.70

Low to moderate levels of infestation (about\25% damage)

Higher (30% damage)

Pigeonpea GKVK, Bangalore (TTB-7)

Pod borer (% pod infestation) (Mean of 10 9 5 plants/field 9 2)

25.60 and 31.50

26.00 and 32.00

Low to moderate levels of infestation (about\20% damage)

Higher (20% damage)

Brown scale (% infestation)

25.60 and 31.50

26.00 and 32.00

23.00 0.0

Chilli/Onion (Hiriyur)

Thrips (% infestation)

26.50 and 33.50

27.20 and 34.20

Groundnut (Tumkur)

Aphids (% infestation)

29.40 and 34.60

30.50 and 37.00

14.50 26.30

Sunflower GKVK, Bangalore

Thrips (% infestation)

25.60 32.70 8.30% 21.50%

Note: The weather data are recorded at specific local weather stations for specific periods and sampling of insect pests was undertaken in limited cultivated fields.


RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Brown Planthopper, Nilaparvatha lugens Stal. (Delphacidae: Hemiptera) is a major pest occurring in outbreak form in certain rice cultivated patches. Factors contributing to the increase in BPH population are the application of nitrogenous fertilizers in excess, closer spacing, cultivating BPH susceptible rice cultivars, cultivating rice after rice and rising temperatures from the last two decades. Similarly, in Cauvery Command Area (CCA) the numbers of white-backed planthopper, Sogatella furcifera (Horvath) is increasing especially on rainfed, summer paddy (Table 1). The chrysomelid beetle, Hispa which was not a pest on paddy prior to 1990’s, in Srirangapatna, Mandya covered over 3,000 ha of paddy after 2000, spreading @ 150–175 ha/year (Figure 1), incurring yield loss to the growers. Sucking pests, viz, whitefly and mealy bugs increasingly appeared on cotton from the beginning of 2000 in Hunsur and Shimoga. Under normal pattern of rainfall, the podborers damage to pigeonpea will be lower than when rains fail in June–July and subsequently heavy showers are received in October–November (Yelshetty et al., 2003). Closer spacing of pigeonpea attracts brown scales, Coccus longulus (Douglas) compared to wider spacing because of a change in microclimatic conditions (Figure 2) (Narasimhamurthy et al., 2011). Table 2 provides insect pests that would exacerbate in India under warmer conditions.

Table 2: Insect Pests that would Intensify on Important Agricultural Crops by Climate Change in India

Crop Insect Pests Cotton Mealybug, Phenacoccus solenopsis Tinsley Whitefly, Bemisia tabaci Gennadius Tobacco caterpillar, Spodoptera litura (Fabricius) Wheat, Barley, Oats Cereal aphids, Sitobion avenae (Fabricius) Rhapalosiphum maidis (Fitch), R.padi (Linnaeus) Schizaphis graminum (Rondani), Macrosiphum misanthi (Takahashi) Rice Brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens (Stal) White-backed

planthopper, Sogatella furcifera (Harvath), Leaf folder, Cnaphalocricis medinalis (Guenee)

Pulse crops Lepidopterous pod borers and coleopterous defoliators Maize, Sorghum Shootfly, Atherigona spp. Pyrilla, Pyrilla perpusilla (Walker) Stem

borer, Chilo pertellus (Swinhoe) Tobacco caterpillar, S.litura Oilseed crops Cabbage caterpillar, Pieris brassicae (Linnaeus) Vegetable crops S.litura, Helicoverpa armigera (Hubner) Aphids, Whitefly,

Leafminer, spider mites Fruit crops Fruit piercing moth, Eudocima materna, Mealy bugs

Source: Arora and Dhawan (2011a,b).


Fig. 1: Map of Srirangapatna showing

Hispa Beetle Spread on Paddy Fig. 2: Long Brown Scale Infestations on

Pigeon Pea in Bangalore in Response to Spacing

Density, Distribution and Pest Population

Reproduction in insects is a key determinant for the population to increase or decrease. The reproduction capacity of insects is affected by temperature and moisture. But there are great differences in the capacity of different insects to tolerate conditions ranging from extreme dryness to near saturated environments. For example, the incidence of Rice Hispa, Dicladispa armigera Olivier in Telangana region of Andhra Pradesh has increased in the last two decades due to prevailing dry situations. Increasing temperatures may result in a greater ability to overwinter in insect species limited by low temperatures at higher latitudes, extending their geographical range (Elphinstone and Toth, 2008). This may be true of the root grubs (Holotrichia and Leucopholis spp.) in parts of India. Many insects such as H. armigera and Spodoptera litura are migratory. These insects may well be adapted to exploit new opportunities by moving rapidly into new areas (Sharma, 2005).

One would expect more frequent and intense precipitation events forecasted with climate change to negatively impact these insects (Jagadish et al., 2005). Other insects such as pea aphids are not tolerant to drought. Entomologists in India predict additional generations of important pest insects like Brown plant hopper, leafhoppers, aphids, thrips and whitefly as a result of increased temperatures, probably necessitating more insecticide applications to maintain populations below economic damage thresholds.

In South India pests like leaf miner (Liriomyza sp.), whitefly (Bemisia sp.), woolly aphid (Ceratovacuna lanigera), mealybug (Paracoccus sp. and Planococcus sp.) and mite (Eriophid, Aceria sp.) (non-insect) have increased. The reason for the increased incidence is not clear. But the higher pest incidence is related to increased temperature. In Faridkot, Punjab, North India infestation of cotton mealy bug and whitefly was related to temperature, rainfall and relative humidity (Figure 3).


Fig. 3: Incidence of Cotton Mealy Bug and Whitefly in Faridkot,

Punjab during 2007–2010 (Source: Pandher et al., 2011)

(Anne et al., 2016) simulated a forest pest mass outbreak using a microcosm incubation experiment, and show a positive feedback between climate change, forest pests and the carbon cycle. Treatments with insect faeces showed 16-fold higher fluxes of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) and 8-fold higher fluxes of Dissolved Organic Carbon (DOC) compared to treatments without insect faeces (control) across a four weeks period, presumably due to the input of limited Nitrogen (N) and fastly decomposable Carbon (C) compounds that accelerate soil decomposition processes. Anouschka and Anna (2015) found that numerous species may experience large increases in their potential distribution in future, which may result in outbreaks in “new” areas. It is therefore likely that more trees will be infested by pests in future, which may have large implications for the Swedish forestry sector. Climate change will affect the pest management industry and Pest Management Professionals (PMPs) in many ways. Effects by first examining direct, or primary, effects on the businesses and on the PMPs that are providing hands-on services, with a focus on the North American setting (particularly USA). It then looks at the potential effects of climate change on individual and population responses of key pest groups, including wood-destroying insects (such as termites), ants, cockroaches, mice and rats, nuisance pests (such as spiders), flies, stinging insects (Africanized honeybees), kissing bugs (Triatominae), fleas, ticks, and mosquitoes (Sims and Appel, 2017).

More than a dozen insect pest species like Serpentine leafminer (Liriomyzatrifolii Burgess), Coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei Ferrari), Papaya mealybug


(Paracoccus marginatus Williams), Spiralling whitefly (Aleurodesdispersus Russell), Erythrina gall wasp (Erythrina spp.) and Subabul psyllid (Heteropsylla cubana Crawford) have been introduced into cultivated ecosystems in South Karnataka from the past two decades (1990–2010) and these are invasives having impacts on local crop productivity. These insect pests have expanded geographical range due to the availability of susceptible host plants. Currently, these pests are difficult to manage in wild and cultivated patches as there are no intimidating natural factors. Spatial shifts in the distribution of crops under changing climatic conditions will also influence the distribution of insect pests in a geographical region (Parry and Carter, 1989).

An increase of 2°C will reduce the generation turnover of the bird cherry aphid, Rhopalosiphum padi (L.) by varying levels, depending on the changes in mean temperature (Morgan, 1996). An increase of 1 and 3°C will cause northward shifts in the potential distribution of the European corn borer, Ostrinia nubilalis (Hub.) up to 1,220 km, with an additional generation in nearly all regions where it is currently known to occur (Porter et al., 1991).

Sudden outbreaks of insect pests can wipe out certain crop species and encourage the invasion by exotic species (Kannan and James, 2009). Some plant species may be unable to follow the climate change, resulting in the extinction of species that are specific to particular hosts (Thomas et al., 2004). However, whether or not an insect pest would move with a crop into a new habitat will depend on environmental conditions.

In addition to the direct effects of temperature changes on development rates, improvement in food quality due to a biotic stress may result in dramatic increases in the growth of some insect species (White, 1984). While the growth of certain insect pests may be adversely affected (Maffei et al., 2007). Pest outbreaks are more likely to occur with stressed plants as a result of the weakening of plants defensive system and thus, increasing the level of susceptibility to insect pests (Rhoades, 1985).

Higher temperature lead to an earlier infestation of Helicoverpa armigera (Hub.) in North India (Sharma, 2010), resulting in increased crop loss. Temperature has a strong influence on the viability and incubation period of H.armigera eggs (Dhillon and Sharma, 2007). Egg incubation period can be predicted based on day degrees required for egg hatching, which decreases with an increase in temperature from 10 to 27°C, and egg age from 0 to 3 days (Dhillon and Sharma, 2007). An increase of 3°C in mean daily temperature would cause the carrot fly, Delia radicum (L.) to become active a month earlier than at present (Collier et al., 1991) in Europe. Temperature increases of 5–10°C would result in the completion of four generations each year, necessitating adoption of new pest management tactics.


Of all, the temperature is the single most important environmental factor influencing insects as it directly affects the timing of diurnal activity patterns, accounts for genetic variations and inheritance of innate recognition of environmental signals, migratory routes and survival thresholds. Latitude affects temperature because the farther away one moves from the equator, the less direct sunlight one gets. At higher latitudes, insects will move farther away from equator with less direct sunlight. Altitude affects temperature because the atmosphere becomes thinner at higher altitude, allowing less transmission of heat and making the air colder. Longitude doesn’t affect temperature much. A state-of-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing Regional Centre for Climate Studies) projects warming to be monotonously widespread in India. There will be substantial spatial differences in the rainfall changes (Rupa Kumar et al., 2006). These changes will considerably affect pest insects that require soil to complete life cycle.

Variations in the patterns of responses to temperature changes would disrupt synchronization in phenology between insects and host plants or natural enemies (Kiritani, 2006). In Southern Karnataka on cotton and rice, there is a shift observed from the leaf/fruit-eating caterpillars to sucking pests in recent years. While monoculture and chemical pest management practices have resulted in such pest shifts, climate change has also contributed to such shifts. For example, on cotton, there is a shift towards sucking pests (mealy bugs, jassids) and mirid bug, Creontiodes biseratense (Distant) particularly after the introduction of Bt cotton (Table 1). Similarly, aphid (Aphis craccivora Koch) incidence on groundnut in South Karnataka has increased in recent years. Thrips, Scirtothrips dorsalis Hood and yellow mites, Lorryia formosa Cooremann are increasingly observed on chillies nowadays. Most of these sucking pests are also vectors of viral diseases. With increasing incidence of sucking pests, viral diseases are also increasing. For example, bud necrosis in groundnut, tobacco Streak Virus incidence on cotton and similar viral diseases in most of the fruit and vegetable crops.

Depending on the physiological adaptations of the concerned species, temperatures above or below optimum limits can prove lethal. Exposure to lethal high or low temperatures may result in instant killing or failure to grow and reproduce. Harmful effects of exposure to sub-lethal temperatures may be manifested at later critical stages like moulting or pupation. For instance, in dry tracts of South Karnataka like in Berur, Hiriyur, Sira, Kadur and parts of Hassan and Chitradurga where onions are cultivated, the incidence of thrips, Thrips tabaci Lindeman and diseases transmitted by it have increased.

Insect Diversity

Insects occupy a wide variety of microhabitat niches. Monitoring of terrestrial arthropods can provide early warnings of ecological changes due to climate change.


Documented data on monitoring and arthropod diversity in relation to global warming are meagre in India. Sharma (2010) reviewed the literature on the impact of global warming on arthropods and extinction of species. In view of the large-scale cultivation and mechanization, there has been a decline of agrobiodiversity in India, in general. Arthropods can be used as indicators of environmental change more rapidly than the vertebrates (Scherm et al., 2000; Gregory et al., 2009). Realistic information on arthropod diversity must be integrated into policy planning and management practices if ecosystems are to be managed for use by future generations.

Main effects of climate change and pollution on arthropod communities result in a decreased abundance of decomposers and predators and increased herbivory, which may have negative consequences for structure and services of ecosystems. The incidence of leafhoppers (species of Amritodus and Idioscopus) on mango (Mangifera indica) and whitefly, Bemisia tabaci on ornamental plants and vegetable crops has considerably increased in south India with depauperated arthropod faunas. Similarly, in the paddy fields injudicious application of insecticides coupled with global warming (liberation of methane, CO2, etc., with increased temperature), the arthropod diversity has declined (Myers et al., 2000; Earn et al., 2000). Biodiversity is continually transformed by the changing climate. But now a type of climate change, brought about by human activities, is being added to this natural viability, threatening to accelerate the loss of biodiversity (Peters and Lovejoy, 1992).

At the same time, exotic species have been introduced beyond their natural bio- geographic boundaries and a host of chemical for which many species have no evolutionary experience have been released (Mooney and Hobbs, 2000). For instance, more than a dozen insect pest species like serpentine leafminer (Liriomyza trifilii Burbess), coffee berry borer (Hypothenemus hampei Ferrari), papaya mealybug (Paracoccus marginatus Williams), spiralling whitefly (Aleurodes disperses Russell), Erythrina gall wasp (Erythrina spp) and others have seen introduced into cultivated ecosystems in Southern Karnataka from the past two decades (1990–2010) and these are invasive having impacts on local biodiversity. The synergy between climate change and habitat fragmentation is the most threatening aspect of climate change for biodiversity and is a central challenge facing conservation (Peters and Lovejoy, 1992; IPCC, 2001).

With the increase of 2°C insects might experience one to five additional life cycles per season (Yamamura and Kiritani, 1998; Hunter, 2001). So, one can use insects as indicator species for detecting climate change. Biodiversity plays an important role in the abundance of insect pests and their natural enemies (Alteiri, 1994; Sharma and Waliyar, 2003).

There is a need to increase functional diversity in agro-ecosystems vulnerable to climate change to improve system resilience and decrease the extent of losses due to


insect pests (Newton et al., 2009). However, changes in cropping patterns as a result of climate change will drastically affect the balance between insect pests and their natural enemies (Sharma and Waliyar, 2003; Newton et al., 2009; Maiorano et al., 2008).

Host Plant Resistance

Climate change may modify the interactions between the insect pests and their host plants (Bale et al., 2002; Sharma, 2010; Arora and Dhawan, 2011a, b). Global warming may also change the flowering and fruiting times, leading to ecological consequences such as the introduction of new insect pests, and attaining of a pest status by non-pest insects (Parmesan and Yohe, 2003; Fitter and Fitter, 2002; Willis et al., 2008). Global warming may result in the breakdown of resistance to certain insect pests. In Karnataka, South India, cultivation of rice cultivars of IET series resistant to Brown plant hopper, resulted in the breakdown of resistance within two years. Sorghum varieties exhibiting resistance to sorghum midge, Stenodiplosis sorghicola (Coq.) in India became susceptible to this pest under high humidity and moderate temperatures in Kenya (Sharma et al., 1999). There will be an increased impact on insect pests which benefit from reduced host defences as a result of stress caused by the lack of adaptation to sub-optimal climatic conditions. The chemical composition of plant species change in direct response to biotic and a biotic stresses as a result, their tissues become less suitable for growth and survival of insect pests (Sharma, 2002). The introduction of new crops and cultivars to take advantage of the new environmental conditions is one of the adaptive methods suggested as a possible response to climate change (Parry and Carter, 1989). Insect host plant interactions will change in response to the effects of CO2 on nutritional quality and secondary metabolites of the host plants. Increased levels of CO2 will enhance plant growth, but may also become vulnerable to select phytophagous insects (Gregory et al., 2009).

In atmospheres experimentally enriched with CO2, the nutritional quality of leaves declined substantially due to dilution of nitrogen by 10–30% (Coley and Markham, 1998; Coviella and Trumble, 1999). Increased CO2 may also cause a slight decrease in nitrogen-based defences (e.g., alkaloids) and a slight increase in carbon-based defences (e.g., tannins). Acidification of water bodies by carbonic acid (due to high CO2) will also affect the floral and faunal diversity (Gore, 2006). Lower foliar nitrogen content due to CO2 causes an increase in food consumption by the herbivores up to 40%, while unusually severe drought increases the damage by insect species such as spotted stem borer, Chilo partellus in sorghum (Sharma, 2005). Endophytes, which play an important role in conferring tolerance to both a biotic and biotic stresses in grasses, may also undergo a change in response to disturbance in the soil due to climate change (Newton et al., 2009). Transgenic Crops for Pest Management Environmental factors such as soil moisture, soil fertility and temperature have a strong influence on


the expression of Bacillus thuringiensis (Bt) toxin proteins deployed in transgenic plants (Sachs et al., 1998). Cotton bollworm, Heliothis virescens (F.) destroyed Bt-transgenic cotton due to high temperatures in Texas, USA (Kaiser, 1996). Similarly, H. armigera and Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallen.) destroyed the Bt-transgenic cotton in the second half of the growing season in Australia because of reduced production of Bt toxins (Hilder and Boulter, 1999). Cry1Ac levels in transgenic plants decrease with the plant age, resulting in greater susceptibility of the crop to insect pests (Sachs et al., 1998; Greenplate et al., 2000; Sharma and Ortiz, 2000; Adamczyk et al., 2001; Kranthi et al., 2005). It is important to understand the effects of climate change on the efficacy of transgenic plants for pest management.

Beneficial Insects

Relationships between insect pests and their natural enemies change as a result of global warming, resulting in both increases and decreases in the status of individual pest species. Changes in temperature will also alter the timing of diurnal activity patterns of different groups of insects (Young, 1982), and changes in interspecific interactions could also alter the effectiveness of natural enemies for pest management (Hill and Dymock, 1989). Quantifying the effect of climate change on the activity and effectiveness of natural enemies for pest management will be a major concern in future pest management programs. The majority of insects are benign to agro-ecosystems, and there is considerable evidence to suggest that this is due to population control through interspecific interactions among insect pests and their natural enemies pathogens, parasites, and predators (Price, 1987). Oriental armyworm, Mythimna separata (Walk) populations increase during extended periods of drought (which is detrimental to the natural enemies), followed by heavy rainfall because of the adverse effects of drought on the activity and abundance of the natural enemies of this pest (Sharma, 2002).

Aphid abundance increases with an increase in CO2 and temperature. However, the parasitism rates remain unchanged in elevated CO2. Temperatures up to 25°C will enhance the control of aphids by coccinellids (Freier and Triltsch, 1996). Temperature not only affects the rate of insect development but also has a profound effect on fecundity and sex ratio of parasitoids (Dhillon and Sharma, 2008, 2009). The interactions between insect pests and their natural enemies need to be studied carefully to devise appropriate methods for using natural enemies in pest management. In contrast, to other insect groups such as leaf chewers, populations of most phloem-feeders like aphids may not be negatively affected by increased CO2 concentrations in the future. The reasons for this difference include the possibility that aphids may be able to compensate for changes in host plant quality by altering feeding behaviour or by synthesizing amino acids (Hughes and Bazzaz, 2001).


The rise in temperature may have a negative effect on the delicate natural enemies and pest relationships such as hymenopteran parasitoids and small predators. It has been estimated that with a 2°C increase in temperature insects might experience additional life cycles per season, especially species like Brown planthopper. Brown planthopper is 17 times more tolerant to 40°C than its predator Cyrtorrhynus lividipepennis Reuter. But not wolf spider Paradosa pseudoannulata (Boesenberg and Strand) (Ramanjaneyulu and Raghunath, 2009), which is tolerant to 40°C.

Satpathi (2011) reported that the average atmospheric temperature was 2°C higher in the rainy season of 2010 than the previous years. The larvae of ephemer-opteran insects and mosquitoes cannot build up the population in a hot climate. So, indirectly it affects the growth and development of the insects. Dabhi et al. (2011) reported that the correlation coefficient between the activity of Bracon hebetor Say and weather parameters was significant. There was a negative association between the maximum temperature and adult activity during 2008 (r = –0.310*) and 2009 (–0.337*).

Impact of climate change on plant pollinators is sparse but more critical from ecological and economic standpoints. There is a general paucity of long-term climatic data and its impact on pollinators in developing countries especially India (Inoue, 1993). However, some insight into the pollinator system in apple orchards of western Himalayas is available. Regarding the decline of apple production, they emphasized technical solutions. For instance, it was iterated time and again that one of the driving forces behind the present crisis was the lack of pollinizers. The official recommendation is that pollinizers should cover about 20% of any orchard. Scientists said that most of the trees which serve as pollinizers, such as Golden Delicious, had been chopped down and replaced with commercially lucrative varieties like Red Golden. However, the typical farmer responded to us in interviews that the number of pollinizers had decreased prior to the decline in apple performance. Scientists and local farmers were clearly not looking at the problem equivalently (Neeraj and Robert, 2001).

In April, late cold can delay blossoming and reduce the pollination activity of bees (Abbott, 1984). Also if it rains in this period, there is a risk that pollen will be washed away from plants. In addition, late snow affects the process of pollination indirectly; a relative immobilization of bees is triggered due to low temperatures brought about by late snowfall. Increasing incidence of pest and disease comprises ecology and different climate change has played a vital role. Himalayan honeybee Apis cerana, endemic to the area, starts foraging at temperatures as low as 7°C, whereas Apis mellifera, which has been introduced over the last 10 years, begins at around 13°C.

In tropical forests an overwhelming majority of tropical forest trees are animal-pollinated, and many, if not most, species are bee-pollinated. The effects of increased level of CO2, elevated temperature, or changes in the length of the dry season on


pollinating insects are not well documented. Increased drought, however, is known to lower population densities of bees that use moist habitat as nesting sites. The decline in the number of nests associated with El Nino years has also been reported for stingless bees in Southeast Asia. Thus drought may reduce floral resources as well as nesting sites for insect—pollinators, further decreasing the reproductive output (Bawa and Dayanandan, 1998; Frankie et al., 1993; Howe, 1993; Feinsinger, 1983).

Pest Management Tactics The relationship between crop protection costs and the resulting benefits will change as a result of climate change. This will have a major bearing on economic thresholds, as greater variability in climate will result in a variable impact of pest damage on crop yields. Increased temperatures and UV radiation, and low relative humidity may render many of these control tactics to be less effective and therefore, there is a need to: Predict and map trends of potential changes in geographical distribution. Study

how climatic changes will affect development, incidence, and population dynamics of insect pests.

Understand the influence of climate change on species diversity and cropping patterns, their influence on the abundance of insect pests and their natural enemies. Understand the changes in expression of resistance to insect pests. Identify stable sources of resistance and pyramid the resistance genes in commercial cultivars.

Study the effect of climate change on the efficacy of transgenic crops. Assess the efficacy of various pest management technologies under diverse en-

vironmental conditions.

A number of cultural practices used by farmers could be affected by changes in climate, although it is not clear whether these practices would be helped, hindered or not affected by the anticipated changes. Using crop rotation as an insect management strategy could be less effective with earlier insect arrival or increased overwintering of insects. However, this could be balanced by changes in the earliness of crop planting times, development and harvest. Row covers for insect exclusion might have to be removed earlier to prevent crop damage by excessive temperatures under the covers or would the targeted early insects also complete their damaging periods earlier or be ready to attack when the row covers were removed?

A coordinated network on climate change to study the issue in its entirety is mooted in the continent as well as in Asia. In South Karnataka Brown Planthopper, Hispa beetle, long brown scale, pigeonpea pod borers and sucking insect pest viz, whitefly, leafhoppers and thrips seemed to have impacted by climate change. The lepidopterous borer H.armigera is going to be more severe on crops in North India. Suggestions are advanced to mitigate the impacts of climate change on pest management in cultivated ecosystems and on biodiversity in general in India. The initiatives of Government of India and the private sector in this direction are urgently required.


ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

The authors are thankful to the Director, Indian Institute of Horticultural Research (IIHR), Bengaluru.

REFERENCES [1] Abbott, D.L. (1984). The Apple Tree: Physiology and Management. Grower Books,

London. [2] Adamczyk, J.J. Jr., Adams, L.C. and Hardee, D.D. (2001). Field Efficacy and Seasonal

Expression Profiles for Terminal Leaves of Single and Double Bacillus thuringiensis Toxin Cotton Genotypes. J. of Econ. Ento., 94: 1589–1593.

[3] Altieri, M.A. (1994). Biodiversity and Pest Management in Agroeco systems. Haworth Press, New York, 185 pp.

[4] Anne, I.M., Arnold, Annett Reinhardt, Ignacy, Korczynski, Maren, Gruningand Carsten Thesis (2016). Positive Feedback between Climate Change, Forest Pests and the Carbon Cycle. Ann. Appl. Bio-Sci., 3(1): A13–15.

[5] Anouschka, R.H. and Anna, S. (2015). The Potential Effect of Climate Change on the Geographical Distribution of Insect Pest Species in the Swedish Boreal Forest. Scandinavian J. Fores. Res., 31(1): 29–39.

[6] Arora, R. and Dhawan, A.K. (2011). Climate Change and Insect Pest Management: Recent Trends in Integrated Pest Management. In: Dhawan, A.K, Singh, B., Arora, R., Bhullar, M.B. (eds.) 77–88 pp.

[7] Arora, R. and Dhawan, A.K. (2011). Climate Change and Insect Pest Management, Recent Trends in Integrated Pest Management, 3rd Insect Science Congress, 20th April 2011, PAU, Ludhiana, India, 77–88 pp.

[8] Bale, J.S., Masters, G.J., Hodkinson, I.D., Awmack, C., Bezemer, T.M., Brown, V.K., Butterfield, J., Buse, A., Coulson, J.C., Farrar, J., Good, J.E., Harrington, G.R., Hartley, S., Jones, T.H., Lindroth, R.L., Press, M.C., Symrnioudis, I., Watt, A.D. and Whittaker, J.B. (2002). Herbivory In Global Climate Change Research: Direct Effects of Rising Temperatures on Insect Herbivores. Glob Change Biol., 8: 1–16.

[9] Bawa, K.S. and Dayanandan, S. (1998). Global Climate Change and Tropical Forest Genetic Resources, Climatic Change, 39: 473–485.

[10] Coley, P.D. and Markham, A. (1998). Possible Effects of Climate Change on Plant/ Herbivore Interactionsin Moist Tropical Forests. Climatic Change, 39: 455–472.

[11] Collier, R.H., Finch, S., Phelps, K. and Thompson, A.R. (1991). Possible Impact of Global Warming Oncabbage Root Fly (Delia Radicum) Activity in the UK. Ann Appl. Biol., 118: 261–271.

[12] Coviella, C. and Trumble, J. (1999). Effects of Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Insect Plantinteractions. Conserv Biol., 13: 700–712.

[13] Dabhi, M.R., Korat, D.M. and Borad, P.K. (2011). Seasonal Abundance of Bracon Hebetor Say in Relation to Temperature and Relative Humidity. Insect Environ, 16(4): 149–150.


[14] Dhaliwal, G.S., Arora, R. and Dhawan, A.K. (2004). Crop Losses Due to Insect Pests in Indian Agriculture: An Update. Indian J. Ecology, 31: 1–7.

[15] Dhaliwal, G.S., Jindal, V. and Dhawan, A.K. (2010). Insect Pest Problems and Crop Losses: Changingtrends, Indian J. Ecol., 37: 1–7.

[16] Dhillon, M.K. and Sharam, H.C. (2007). Influence of Temperature and Helicoverpa Armigera Food on Survival and Development of the Parasitoid, Campoletis Chlorideae. ICRISAT, Patencheru, A.P.

[17] Dhillon, M.K. and Sharma, H.C. (2008). Temperature and Helicoverpa Armigera Food Influence Survival and Development of the Ichneumonid Parasitoid, Campoletis Chlorideae. Indian J. Plant Prot, 36: 240–244.

[18] Dhillon, M.K. and Sharma, H.C. (2009). Temperature Influences The Performance And Effectiveness Offield and Laboratory Strains of the Ichneumonid Parasitoid, Campoletis Chlorideae. Biocontrol, 54: 743–750.

[19] Earn, D.J., Levin, S.A. and Rohani, P. (2000). Coherence and Conservation. Science, 290: 1360–1364.

[20] Elphinstone, J. and Toth, I.K. (2008). Erwinia Chrysanthemi (Dikeya spp.)—The Facts. Oxford, UK, Potato Council.

[21] Environment Protection Agency (EPA) (1989). The Potential Effects of Global Climate Change on the United States. National Studies, Vol. 2. Review of the Report to Congress, US Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, 261 pp.

[22] Feinsinger, P. (1983). Coevolution and Pollination. In: Futuyama D.J., Slatkin M. (eds.) Coevolution. Sinauer Associates, Sunderland, 282–310 pp.

[23] Fitter, A.H. And Fitter, R.S. (2002). Rapid Changes In Flowering Time In British Plants. Science, 296: 1689–1691.

[24] Frankie, G.W., Newstorm, L., Vinson, S.B. and Barthell, J.F. (1993). Nesting Habitat Preferences of Selected Centris bee Species in Costa Rican Dry Forest. Biotropica, 25: 322–333.

[25] Freier, B. and Triltsch, H. (1996). Climate Chamber Experiments and Computer Simulations on the Influence of Increasing Temperature on Wheat-Aphid-Predator Interactions. Aspects Appl. Biol., 45: 293–298.

[26] Gore, A. (2006). An Inconvenient Truth: The Planetary Emergency of Global Warming and What We can do About It. Rodale Publisher, Emmaus.

[27] Greenplate, J.T., Penn, S.R., Shappley, Z., Oppenhuizen, M., Mann, J., Reich, B. and Osborn, J. (2000). Bollgard II Efficacy: Quantification of Total Lepidopteran Activity in a 2-Gene Product. In: Dugger P., Richter, D. (eds.) Proceedings of Beltwide Cotton Conference. Memphis, Tennesse, USA, National Cotton Council of America, 1041–1043 pp.

[28] Gregory, P.J., Johnson, S.N., Newton, A.C. and Ingram, J.S.I. (2009). Integrating Pests and Pathogens into the Climate Change/Food Security Debate. J. Exp. Bot., 60: 2827–2838.

[29] Hamilton, J.G., Dermody, O., Aldea, M., Zangerl, A.R., Rogers, A., Berenbaum, M.R. and Delucia, E. (2005). Anthropogenic Changes in Troposphereic Composition Increase Susceptibility of Soybean Toinsect Herbivory. Environ Entom, 34(2): 479–485.


[30] Hilder, V.A. and Boulter, D. (1999). Genetic Engineering of Crop Plants for Insect Resistance—A Critical review. Crop Prote, 18: 177–191.

[31] Hill, M.G. and Dymock, J.J. (1989). Impact of Climate Change: Agricultural/Horticultural Systems. DSIR Entomology Division Submission to the New Zealand Climate Change Program. Auckland, New Zealand: Department of Scientific and Industrial Research, 16 pp.

[32] Howe, H.F. (1993). Specialized And Generalized Dispersal Systems: Where Does ‘‘The Paradigm’’ Stand? Vegetation, 107(108): 3–13.

[33] Hughes, L. and Bazzaz, F.A. (2001). Effects of Elevated CO2 on Five Plant-Aphid Interactions. Entomol Exp. Appl., 99: 87–96.

[34] Hunter, M.D. (2001). Effects of Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide on Insect-Plant Interactions. Agric Forest Entomol, 3: 153–159.

[35] Inoue, K. (1993). Evolution of Mutualism in Plantpollinator Interactions on Islands. J. Biosci., 18: 525–536.

[36] IPCC (2001). Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis. In: Houghton J.T., et al. (eds.) Contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovern- mental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.

[37] Jagadish, K.S., Nagaraju, N., Shadakshari, Y.G. and Puttarangaswamy, K.T. (2005). Faunal Composition of Thrips Infesting Sunflower, Insect Environ, 11(3): 114–115.

[38] Kaiser, J. (1996). Pests Overwhelm Bt Cotton Crop. Nature, 273: 423. [39] Kannan, R. and James, D.A. (2009). Effects of Climate Change on Global Diversity: A

Review of Keyliterature. Tropical Ecology, 50: 31–39. [40] Kiritani, K. (2006). Predicting Impacts of Global Warming on Population Dynamics and

Distribution of Arthropods in Japan. Popul Ecol., 48: 5–12. [41] Kogan, M. and Herzog, D.C. (eds) (1980). Sampling Methods in Soybean Entomology.

Springer, New York, 587 pp. [42] Kranthi, K.R., Naidu, S., Dhawad, C.S., Tatwawadi, A., Mate, K., Patil, E., Bharose,

A.A., Behere, G.T., Wadaskar, R.M. and Kranthi, S. (2005). Temporal and Intra-Plant Variability of Cry1Ac Expression in Bt-Cotton and its Influence on the Survival of the Cotton Bollworm, Helicoverpa Armigera (Hubner) (Noctuidae: Lepidoptera). Curr Sci., 89: 291–298.

[43] Maffei, M.E., Mithofer, A. and Boland, W. (2007). Insects Feeding on Plants: Rapid Signals and Responses proceeding Induction of Phytochemical Release. Phytochemistry 68: 2946–2959.

[44] Maiorano, A., Blandino, M., Reyneri, A. and Vanara, F. (2008). Effects of Maize Residues on the Fusariumspp. Infection and Deoxynivalenol (DON) Contamination of Wheat Grain. Crop Protection, 27: 182–188.

[45] Mooney, H.A. and Hobbs, R.J. (2000). Invasive Species in a Changing World. Island Press, Washington Morgan D. (1996). Temperature Changes and Insect Pests: A Simulation Study. Aspects of Applied Biology, 45: 277–283.

[46] Myers, N., Mittermeier, R.A., Mittermeier, C., Da Fonseca, G.A.B. and Kent, J. (2000). Biodiversity hotspotes for Conservation Priorities. Nature, 403: 853–858.


[47] Narasimhamurthy, T.N., Doddabasappa, B., Shashank, P.R. and Chakravarthy, A.K. (2011). Incidence Oflong Brown Scale, Coccus Longulus (Douglas) (Hemiptera: Coccidae) on Pigeonpea. Current Biotica, 4(4): 478–481.

[48] Neeraj, V. and Robert, E.R. (2001). Climate Change in the Western Himalayas of India: A Study of Local perception and Response. Clim Res., 19: 109–117.

[49] Newton, A.C., Begg, G. and Swanston, J.S. (2009). Deployment of Diversity for Enhanced Crop Function. Ann Appl Biol., 154: 309–322.

[50] Pandher, S., Singh, S. and Gill, J.S. (2011). Whitefly and Mealybug Outbreaks in Cotton: Climate Threat or Changing Host Patterns. Insect Environ., 17(1): 10–12.

[51] Parmesan, C. and Yohe, G. (2003). A Globally Coherent Fingerprint of Climate Change Impacts Acrossnatural Systems. Nature, 421: 37–42.

[52] Parry, M.L. and Carter, T.R. (1989). An Assessment of the Effects of Climatic Change on Agriculture. Climatic Change, 15: 95–116.

[53] Peters, R.L. and Lovejoy, T.E. (1992). Global Warming and Biological Diversity. Yala University Press, London.

[54] Porter, J.H., Parry, M.L. and Carter, T.R. (1991). The Potential Effects of Climate Change on Agricultural insect Pests. Agric for Meteorol, 57: 221–240.

[55] Price, P.W. (1987). The Role of Natural Enemies in Insect Populations. In: Barbosa P., Schultz J.C. (eds) Insect Outbreaks. Academic Press, San Diego, 287–312.

[56] Ramanjaneyulu, G.V. and Raghunath, T.A.V.S. (2009). Pest Shifts are Observed with Changes in the Ecological Balance. The Hindu Survey of Indian Agriculture, 115–118 pp.

[57] Rhoades, D.F. (1985). Offensive-Defensive Interactions between Herbivores and Plants: Their Relevance in Herbivore Population Dynamics and Ecological Theory. American Naturalist, 125: 205–238.

[58] Rupa Kumar, K., Sahai, A.K., Krishna Kumar, K., Patwardhan, S.K., Mishra, P.K., Revadekar, J.V., Kamala, K. and Pant, G.B. (2006). High-Resolution Climate Change Scenarios for India for the 21st Century. Curr Sci., 90(3): 334–345.

[59] Sachs, E.S., Benedict, J.H., Stelly, D.M., Taylor, J.F., Altman, D.W., Berberich, S.A. and Davis, S.K. (1998). Expression and Segregation of Genes Encoding Cry1A Insecticidal Proteins in Cotton. Crop Sci., 38: 1–11.

[60] Satpathi, C.R. (2011). Probable Effect of Global Warming on the Dragonfly, Orthetrum Sabina Sabina (Drury) in Eastern India. Insect Environ, 16(4): 158–159.

[61] Scherm, H., Sutherst, R.W., Harrington, R. and Ingram, J.S.I. (2000). Global Networking for Assessment of Impacts of Global Change on Plant Pests. Environ Pollut, 108: 333–341.

[62] Sharma, H.C. (2002). Host Plant Resistance to Insects: Principles and Practices. In: Sarath Babu, B., Varaprasad, K.S., Anitha, K., Prasada, Rao, R.D.V.J. and Chandurkar, P.S. (eds) Resources Management in Plant Protection, Vol. 1. Plant Protection Association of India, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India, 37–63 pp.

[63] Sharma, H.C. (Ed.) (2005). Helicoverpa Management: Emerging Trends and Strategies for Futurere search. New Delhi, India: Oxford and IBH, and Science Publishers, USA, 469 pp.


[64] Sharma, H.C. (2010). Effect of Climate Change on IPM in Grain Legumes. In: 5th International Food Legumes Research Conference (IFLRC V), and the 7th European Conference on Grain Legumes (AEP VII), Anatalaya, Turkey, 26–30, April 2010.

[65] Sharma, H.C. and Ortiz, R. (2000). Transgenics, Pest Management and the Environment. Curr Sci., 79: 421–437.

[66] Sharma, H.C. and Waliyar, F. (2003). Vegetational Diversity, Arthropod Response and Pest Management. In: Waliyar F., Collette L., Kenmore P.E. (eds) Beyond the Gene Horizon: Sustaining Agricultural Productivity and Enhancing Livelihoods Through Optimization of Crop and Crop-Associated Diversity with Emphasis on Semi-Arid Tropical Agroecosystems. International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics (ICRISAT), Patancheru, Andhra Pradesh, India, 66–88.

[67] Sharma, H.C., Mukuru, S.Z., Manyasa, E. and Were, J. (1999). Breakdown of Resistance to Sorghum Midge, Stenodiplosis Sorghicola. Euphytica, 109: 131–140.

[68] Sims, S.R. and Appel, A.G. (2017). Climate Change Impacts on Urban Pests. Ed.: Dhang, P. Climate Change and the New Dynamics of Urban Pest Management in North America, 31–49.

[69] Thomas, C.D., Cameron, A., Green, R.E., Bakkenes, M., Beaumont, L.J., Collingham, Y.C., Erasmus, B.F.N., de Siqueira, M.F., Grainger, A., Hannah, L., Hughes, L., Huntley, B., van Jaarsveld, A.S., Midgley, G.F., Miles, L., Ortega-Huerta, M.A., Peterson, A.T., Phillips, O.L. and Williams, S.E. (2004). Extinction Risk from Climate Change. Nature, 427: 145–148.

[70] White, T.C.R. (1984). The Abundance of Invertebrate Herbivores in Relation to the Availability of Nitrogen In Stressed Food Plants, Oecologia, 63: 90–105.

[71] Willis, C.G., Ruhfel, B., Primack, R.B., Miller, Rushing, A.J. and Davis, C.C. (2008). Phylogenetic Patterns of Species Loss in Thoreau’s Woods are Driven by Climate Change. Proc. Natl Acad Sci., 105: 17029–17033 (USA).

[72] Yamamura, K. and Kiritani, K. (1998). A Simple Method to Estimate the Potential Increase in the Number of Generations under Global Warming in Temperate Zones. Appl Ent Zool., 33: 289–298, Yelshetty, S., Sidde Gowda, D.K., Lingappa, S., Patil, B.V. (2003). Thogari kayikorakadabhadheyamaleyadharithamunsuchne, Krishika Bhandhu, 1(3): 38.

[73] Young, A.M. (1982). Population Biology of Tropical Insects. Plenum Press, New York, 511 pp.

Utility of Geospatial Database and its Application for Climate Change Studies 79

79

Utility of Geospatial Database and its Application for Climate Change Studies

B.P. Lakshmikantha Karnataka State Remote Sensing Application Center, Bengaluru, Karnataka


ABSTRACT: The geospatial inputs are very important in terms of understanding the climate change studies. The satellite images with varied resolution (coarse and high resolution) are required for the study. The optical and microwave images are equally important for the study. The different resolution of satellite images will define the level of mapping (coarse and detailed). The different thematic layers viz. base map, land use/land cover, drainage, water bodies, soils, slope, geology, geomorphology, groundwater prospectus and other climatic parameters are very important in climate change analysis. A case study of land use changes affecting the temperature for Bengaluru Urban district by using temporal satellite data has been studied. The relation between the land use change and Land Surface Temperature (LST) for Bangalore Urban district indicates that the temperature has increased from 30.9°C to 32.9°C over built-up classes. The geospatial database with respect to eco-sensitive zones viz. coastal zone, mangroves, national parks, wildlife sanctuaries, protected/reserved forests in the State of Karnataka has been discussed. The eco-sensitive mangrove areas have been decreased drastically and have been converted into artificial prawn culture areas. The shoreline changes are also been observed over a time period. The forest type and density classes with MIS data are also discussed. For a better understanding of climatic changes, geospatial data is found to be economical, less manpower consuming and providing more efficient solutions.

Keywords: Satellite Images, Thematic Data, Temporal, Land Use/Land Cover

INTRODUCTION

he Natural resources of the planet earth reflect a history of 4.5 billion years. The earth’s topography and its resources have undergone many changes in the last

4.5 billion years, because of changes in climate and global tectonics. However, there is a significant change in the natural resources in the last 100 years, because of anthropogenic activities, the industrial revolution and two world wars. Technological development in the last 100 years and increase in population has lead to an increase

T


in demand for natural resources, this resulted in indiscriminate utilization of resources and environmental degradation such as deforestation, desertification, soil erosion, water logging, flood, drought, etc. Many species of animals and plants have disappeared due to habitat loss, at present, the main issue is to maintain a balance between development and conservation of resources. This is best achieved when there is a proper inventory of resources from time to time, followed by suitable management practices for sustainable development.

For inventory, planning and sustainable development of natural resources, spatial and non-spatial data are required. Natural Resource Information System (NRIS) is oriented towards providing information about natural resources for planning and decision making. The NRIS encompasses information on natural resources related to land, water, soil, mineral, climatic parameters and socio-economic information. The integration of these data would provide information for effective utilization of resources.

With the availability of space technology, wherein systematic, synoptic, rapid and repetitive coverage over large areas is possible from its vantage point in space, it is possible to generate an update, the data required for NRIS in a spatial format.

MATERIALS AND METHOD

The Unique feature of NRIS is the adoption of state of the art information technology for planning natural resource management. Remote sensing, GIS and GPS are the core technologies for database generation, analysis and information extraction of natural resources and generation of thematic maps.

Indian Remote Sensing satellite data from IRS series for three seasons representing Kharif, Rabi and summer have been utilized for generating thematic maps. The thematic mapping has been done using Survey of India (SOI) toposheets. The collateral data used in NRIS includes SOI toposheets, Census data/NIC/NATMO and Cadastral data and other relevant data.

Table 1: Different Satellite Images and Scale of Mapping

Scale 1cm on Map Corresponds to Satellite Data/Image Spatial Resolution 1:2,50,000 2.5 km IRS AWiFS 56 m

1:50,000 500 m LISS III 23.3 m 1:25,000 250 m LISS IV 5.8 m 1:12,500 125 m PAN 5.8 m 1:10,000 100 m Cartosat-1 2.5 m 1:5,000 50 m IKONOS 1 m 1:4,000 40 m Quickbird 0.61 m


The Different resolution of satellite images has been used to map with a different scale. To Map at 1:50000 Scale LISS-III is suitable, likewise to map at 1:10,000 scale, it needs Cartosat-1 with 2.5 m resolution. To map at Revenue Survey number wise or urban mapping, it requires less than metre resolution viz., Quick Bird, Worldview, etc. The details of different satellite images and scale of mapping are shown in Table 1.

Thematic Mapping

Thematic mapping has been generated as per the guidelines mentioned in IMSD guidelines and it includes the following themes (Anonymous, 2007): 1. Base Map 2. Slope Map 3. Drainage and Watersheds 4. Hydro-geomorphology and Groundwater Prospectus 5. Soil 6. Land Use and Land Cover 7. Cadastral Map.

1. Base Map: The detail pertains to the existing transport network, settlement location and administrative boundaries are prepared using SOI topographic maps and further updated using satellite imagery. These maps have been used as a base map.

2. Slope: Slope is one of the important parameters in understanding the land utilization of the area. The runoff and erosion characteristics of the area controlled by the degree of the slope in the terrain. High degree of slope reveals steep sloping areas, where the amount of runoff is high. The contour information at 20m interval is used for the preparation of slope map.

3. Drainage and Watershed: For purpose of planning and development, the first step is the delineation of watershed areas. Micro-level delineation is needed for implementation of watershed activities. The drainage information has been derived/extracted form SOI topographical maps and further upgraded using satellite imagery. KSRSAC has delineated the larger watershed area (1 lakh Ha) into smaller Sub-watershed (5000 Ha), mini-watershed (2000 Ha) and micro-watersheds (500 Ha). Unique names and Alpha Numeric IDs are also given to all the hydrological boundaries. This is very important for better planning and management at the micro level and no scope for duplication of works (Anonymous, 2006).

4. Hydro-geomorphology and Groundwater Prospectus: The occurrence and distribution and the movement of groundwater in hard rock terrain are controlled by a number of factors like lithology, structure, landform, the thickness of weathered material, soil type, etc.


5. Soil Resource: A good understanding of soils with reference to their nature and distribution is essential to formulate any land-based production system. The soil mapping units consist of soil series and soil phages, based on this land capability and land irrigabality classes have generated.

6. Land Use/Land Cover: The Land Use/Land Cover maps are generated by existing Land Use classification using two season satellite data. It consists of categories like Build-up land, agriculture land, forest land, wasteland and water bodies, etc. The expansion of urban areas, which is a part of Build-up land, is exerting enormous pressure on the infrastructure and resources. The satellite data derived information on urban areas provides a strong database. With the increase, biotic pressure on the forest resources, sustainable management of forest resources is of prime importance. Hence, satellite applications are essential for effective forest management. Generation of Geospatial database containing the various forest types/forest density classes provides an excellent capability to monitor the composition of the forest ecosystem, the impact of management and degradation processes. The spatial database has been created for forest resources of the State. Due to increasing population pressure, there is the excessive demand for land for both agriculture and non-agriculture uses. This has resulted in degraded wastelands. Multi-date (temporal) and multi-sensor (different resolution) pertains to IRS satellite has been used to generate the different Land Uses classes for the State of Karnataka.

7. Cadastral Map: The British period Surveyed map (1:7920 scale) has been digitised, geo-referenced with different resolution satellite images and seamless mosaicking for entire State, which is base data to addressing the encroachment of forest, tanks, mining, etc., which is important for climate study at the micro level.


Eco-sensitive Boundaries: The eco-sensitive boundaries viz., National parks (5 No.), Wild Life Sanctuaries (25 No.), Reserve Forests, Protected Forest has been generated for the State. These areas have a lot of restrictions like restricted human activity.

Coastal Regulation Zone: CRZ, where all along the 320 km coastal zone from sea shore up to 500 m, there should not be any activity. Shoreline change analysis was made for the coastal area for the different time interval. Coastal land use database is important for any planning and management.

Mangroves: Mangroves are a very important ecosystem, where fish breeding activity is being happened. Unfortunately, all these areas are replaced by Prawn Culture. According to MOEF report the Mangroves area in Karnataka has been reduced to less than 25 sq km from 60 sq km in 2009 and 1989 respectively.


Mining Lease Boundaries: The mining lease database has generated to know the number and extent of mining in the state. Multi-temporal satellite data has been used to address the encroachment of forest and irregular mining activity.

Lakes/Tanks: All the water bodies have been mapped to the state. More number of water bodies are observed in the South compared to the North Karnataka, which is due to varied soil types i.e., the black cotton soil in the North. The geo-spatial tank database is important for tank encroachment studies. According to Lakshman Rao Committee reports, the number of water bodies in core Bangalore was around 400 tanks, which has been reduced to around 100 tanks now. Majority of the tanks have been converted into Parks, Bus stand, Residential layout, etc.

Water Quality Mapping: To know portable and non-portable, water quality mapping has been done for the state. The chemical parameters used are pH, CaCO3, Nitrate, Fluoride and Total Iron. Majority of the dry land area is affected with Flouride viz., Kolar, Chikkabalapur, Tumkur, Chitradurga, Bellary, Koppal, Gadag, etc., However, some areas are affected with Nitrate, because of the usage of Nitrogenous fertilizer in command area viz., Tungabhadra command area.

The Land Use/Land Cover change analysis of Bangalore Urban District and the impact on Land Surface temperature has been made from 1999 to 2012. It was observed that the build-up area has increased by 78.96% from 1999 to 2009. Whereas, vegetation and water bodies areas have decreased by 9.39% and 29.87% respectively. This may be due to rapid urbanisation and industrialization. Land Surface Temperature (LST) of the built-up area of Bangalore Urban district has increased from 30.9°C to 32.5°C and LST for other land use classes increased from 27.2°C to 28.1°C (Swetha, 2011). Hence it clearly indicates that there is a 1°C increase in temperature in a decade of the period.

CONCLUSION

Climate Change has been happening from time immemorial due to many factors including anthropogenic activities. To address the climate change issues, Integrated sustainable approach at micro-level is very important. Geospatial technology is a better tool in planning, monitoring, management and decision support system.

REFERENCES [1] Anonymous (2006). Watershed Atlas of Karnataka (Sub, Mini and Micro-watersheds),

KSRSAC, 137 pp. [2] Anonymous (2007). State Natural Resource Information System for Karnataka State,

KSRSAC, 237 pp. [3] Swetha, Hiremath (2011). Land Use/Land Cover Change Analysis of Bangalore Urban

District and its Impact on Land Surface Temperature. M.Tech Thesis VTU-EC, KSRSAC, Bangalore, 85 pp.

84

Role of GIS Models in Assessing Vulnerable Districts for Vector-Borne

Diseases under Different Climate Change Scenarios

R. Abhilash*, Kiranraddi Morab, Roopadevi Koti, G. Ashwini and P. Chitra

Centre for Geo-informatics, Environmental Management and Policy Research Institute, Bengaluru, Karnataka


ABSTRACT: One of the major impacts of climate change is on epidemics of vector-borne diseases. Variations in temperature and humid conditions are likely to increase the risk of mortality and morbidity due to vector-borne diseases. Changes in climate are likely to change frequency, lengthen the transmission seasons, and alter the geographic range of important vector-borne diseases, Malaria, Dengue and Chikungunya being the most important. There is historical evidence of associations between climatic conditions and vector-borne diseases. With this background, a study has been carried out to assess the link between temperature and humidity with the number of vector-borne disease case occurrence in various districts of Karnataka. Vulnerability mapping can allow for improved analysis of risks and what is threatened. It allows for better visual presentations and understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities. Hence, the vulnerable districts are identified using various geospatial tools for the year 2011–2015 and for future climate change scenarios. Geographical Information System (GIS) provides excellent means for visualizing and analyzing epidemiological data, revealing trends, dependencies and inter-relationships. District level season wise spatial data analysis with raster format is performed for preparing favourable and unfavourable temperature and humidity conditions map. Resulting raster data were aggregated to create composite indicators of exposure and of susceptibility in GIS platform. These indicators were weighted by their contribution to disease vulnerability, and the output consisted of an overall index visualized in map format. The outcome of this study predicts the possible districts of Karnataka state which may be prone to vector-borne diseases under different climate change scenarios based on the baseline studies carried out from 2011–2015. Keywords: Spatial Raster Analysis, Vector-borne Diseases, Climate Change, Vulnerability Mapping, GIS Models

Role of GIS Models in Assessing Vulnerable Districts for Vector-Borne… 85

INTRODUCTION

he application of GIS in health application and vulnerability studies dates back to mid-1850s where “disease diffusion mapping” was used by the father of epi-

demiology, Dr. John Snow (Physician). His research using GIS and influencing thematic layers in public health investigations widely benefited the medical community. Since then, GIS holds distinct promise as a tool for Spatial Decision Support System (SDSS) by providing improved visualization techniques leading to quicker, enhanced, more robust understanding and decision-making capabilities in public health area.

GIS helps to generate thematic maps that depict the intensity of a disease vector and favourable conditions spatially. It can overlay different layers of information and carry out specific calculations. GIS allows interactive queries of information contained within the map, table or graph. It permits a dynamic link between the database of disease occurrences and maps so that data updates through model results are automatically reflected on maps. GIS allows information like temperature, humidity and other weather parameters to be integrated and analyze spatial correlations between potential risk factors and the occurrence of diseases.

The study of public health epidemiology contains the information relevant to the occurrence of diseases, infection rate, age group, sex, disease transmission, site specification of the patients, host availability of the parasite or virus loads, and so on. This information is used to state the horizontal and vertical structures of the diseases and history of the disease with reference to space and time. In this study, GIS is used to map the geographical distribution of disease prevalence and the spatial modelling of environmental aspects of disease occurrences.

In this study, an attempt has been made to study the vulnerability of vector-borne diseases due to one of the major parameter i.e., the temperature of baseline scenario (2011–2015) and the future mid-century scenario (2046–2065) across different carbon emission scenarios.

METHODOLOGY In this study, discrete rasters (temperature/humidity value of the region fills the entire area of the cell) have been generated using district wise temperature and humidity data. The rasters of temperature and humidity are used to prepare season wise vulnerability map. To carry out this process the discrete rasters of temperature and humidity are separately reclassified using spatial reclassify analyst tool into favourable and unfavourable regions based on conditions of temperature (14–19 C/25–27 C) and Humidity (40–80%). The next step to obtain vulnerable districts map is achieved using spatial math-logical operation called combinatorial or on the cell values of two input rasters of temperature and humidity. In this operation, the raster cells of temperature

T


and humidity layers are matched under the following conditions as mentioned in Tables 1 and 2.

Fig. 1: Flowchart of Methodology for Spatial Raster Analysis

Table 1: Relationship of Temperature and Relative Humidity with Parasite and Mosquito Development

Minimum Temperature for Parasite Development

Optimum Temperature for Parasite Development

Relative Humidity Range for Parasite Development

14–19°C 25–27°C 40–80% [Source: Bruce chwatt, 1980 and Martens et al., 1995]

Table 2: Categorization of Raster Cells for Vulnerability Category of Raster Cells Raster Cell Value Code Vulnerability

Favourable humidity + favourable temperature 1–1 Very high Favorable humidity + unfavourable temperature 1–2 High Unfavorable humidity + favourable temperature 2–1 High Unfavourable humidity and temperature 2–2 Moderate

Note: 1. Favorable conditions, 2. Unfavorable conditions analysis.

In this study, spatial overlay raster analysis has been carried out drawing thematic layers of temperature, humidity and disease occurrence at the district level to arrive at vulnerability mapping. The correlation between temperature, humidity and disease occurrence was analyzed for different seasons across the state. As per India Meteoro- logical Department (IMD), four seasons namely winter (Jan.–Feb.), Pre-monsoon


(Mar.–May), Monsoon (Jun.–Sept.) and Post-monsoon (Oct.–Dec.) is considered for analysis. The vulnerable regions are identified using various geospatial tools for the year 2011–2015 as baseline study and future mid-century climate change scenarios for the years 2046–2065. For Baseline years (2011–2015) the GIS-based Spatial Raster analysis has been carried out at district-wise and Season-wise to assess vulnerability. Using GIS Raster conversion tools, the thematic layer of Temperature, district-wise was classified into favourable condition districts which are having Minimum Temperature for parasite development (14–19°C) or Optimum temperature for parasite development (25–27°C) and unfavourable temperature condition districts depending upon the season. Similarly, the district-wise humidity layer was classified into favourable humidity condition district having Relative Humidity range for parasite development (40–80%) and unfavourable humidity condition districts. The favourable and unfavourable conditions in GIS can be dynamically updated as and when the results of research progress on “Relationship of temperature and relative humidity with parasite and mosquito development”. Keeping in view of limitation that parasite adaptability for slow changes in climatic conditions is neglected, the above-mentioned conditions in GIS platform provides the user with an advantage to view districts which are having favourable temperature and favourable humidity districts for parasite development. Further, spatial overlay analysis provides users to view districts having combinations of favourable and unfavourable conditions such as districts having both temperature and humidity favourable for parasite development or the districts having an only humidity favourable condition or districts having temperature favourable conditions. Changes in climate are likely to change frequency, lengthen the transmission seasons, and alter the geographic range of important vector-borne diseases, Malaria, Dengue and Chikungunya being the most important. There is historical evidence of associations between climatic conditions and vector-borne diseases. Hence, an attempt has been made in this study to assess the vulnerability by temperature parameter under different climate change scenarios. This study has incorporated probable scenarios as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (IPCC AR4, 2007), which lists major driving forces of future emissions, including changes in demographic, technological and economic development. These scenarios, defined within the Special Report on Emission Scen- arios (SRES), are separated into four scenarios, A1, A2, B1 and B2, which were categorized by considering changes in economic and environmental priorities, as well as regional versus global development.

Scenarios B1, A1 (B), A2 being most prominent and widely used in General Circulation Models (GCMs), temperature data for these scenarios has been extracted


each district-wise using “GIS Climate Wizard portal” that are based on low (B1), moderate (A1B), and high (A2) carbon emissions scenarios. The temperature vulnerable maps have been prepared using spatial raster analysis showing favourable temperature condition districts for parasite development under different carbon emission scenarios.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS The Vulnerability map is the outcome of various raster operations in GIS using most influencing thematic layers considered i.e., Temperature and Humidity. This vulnerability analysis is carried out for the years 2011–2015 reveals the following outcomes:

Season-wise disease case mapping with

vulnerability maps for the year 2011 Season-wise disease case mapping with

vulnerability maps for the year 2012 Season-wise disease case mapping with

vulnerability maps for the year 2013

Season-wise disease case mapping with vulnerability maps for the year 2014

Season-wise disease case mapping with vulnerability maps for the year 2015

Interpretation example: In 2011 map, BL Bellary(Chikungunya), DA Davanagere(Dengue), DK Dakshina Kannada (Malaria) districts are having high disease cases and also predicted vulnerable in GIS map of Winter season.

Fig. 2: Season-Wise Disease Case Mapping with Vulnerability Maps for the Years 2011–2015


In the above disease case and vulnerability maps, it is observed that the districts having more number of vector-borne disease cases also has favourable temperature and favourable humidity conditions. This shows that among several influencing governing factors for parasite activities, temperature and humidity factors are also important.

The temperature vulnerability maps are as follows.

Baseline Scenario [2011–2015]

High (A2) Carbon Moderate (A1B) Carbon Low (B1) Carbon Emissions Scenario Emissions Scenario Emissions Scenario

Grey color indicates the regions having temperature >19°C (towards favorable temperature for parasite activities). Orange color indicates the regions having temperature 14–19°C (critical temperature for parasite activities). More the regions falling under Orange color—critical will be temperature conditions for parasite activities and more the regions having grey color indicates the temperatures might fall under favourable conditions for parasite activities.

Fig. 3: Future Temperature Vulnerability Assessment for Mid-Century under Different Carbon Emissions Scenario (2046–2065) for the Winter Season


In the winter season, the temperatures will be low (less than 20 C on an average) in most of the districts in Karnataka state. The minimum temperature for parasite development is 14–19 C. This minimum temperature makes the vector-borne diseases to critically high, suspend their activities and rest for survival.

When climate change analysis outputs are examined in future mid-century (2046–2065), the Climate change under the following scenarios have corresponding impacts:

Under high (A2) carbon emissions scenario the number of districts falling under a minimum temperature which is critical for parasite development will decrease. The temperature rise would cause the minimum temperature in most of the districts to be more than normal which may lead to increase in parasite activities. This also makes the adaptability conditions to the parasite favourable.

Under moderate (A1B) carbon emissions scenario the districts under minimum temperature for parasite development will decrease. However, there exist few districts in the state which will be under minimum temperature conditions, but the majority of districts would fall under optimum conditions for parasite development (>19°C) even in winter. This might lead to parasite activities to continue. This also makes the adaptability conditions to the parasite favourable.

Under low (B1) carbon emissions scenario the districts under minimum temperature for parasite development will sustain. This minimum temperature conditions will make the parasite activities to minimize and make sustenance critical in the winter season.

*Orange colour indicates most districts having unfavourable conditions for parasite activities.

Fig. 4: Number of Districts with Minimum Temperatures (14–19 C)

The graph showing that the number of districts having critical minimum temperature is achievable in low carbon emission scenario (B1). High carbon emission scenario (A2)/(A1B) would lead to temperature rise towards optimum conditions for parasite activities.


Baseline Scenario [2011–2015]

High (A2) Carbon Emissions Moderate (A1B) Carbon Low (B1) Carbon Scenario Emissions Scenario Emissions Scenario

Grey color indicates the regions having temperature ≠ 25–27°C (not favorable temperature for parasite development). Orange color indicates the regions having temperature 25–27°C (favorable temperature for parasite development).

Fig. 5: Future Temperature Vulnerability Assessment for Mid-Century under Different Carbon Emissions Scenario (2046–2065) for Pre-Monsoon Season

In pre-monsoon season the average low temperatures are normally in the range of 25–27 C. This temperature acts as optimum temperature condition for parasite activity. In the GIS analysis carried out for future mid-century (2046–2065), the Climate change under the following scenarios have corresponding impacts.

Under high (A2) carbon emissions scenario the number of districts falling under an optimum temperature which is favourable for parasite activities is highest. The temperature sensitivity would cause the optimum temperature in most of the districts to sustain which may lead to increase in parasite activities.


Under moderate (A1B) carbon emissions scenario the districts under optimum temperature for parasite development will remain more. However, there exist few districts in the state which will not have optimum temperature conditions, but the majority of districts would fall under optimum conditions for parasite activities (25 C–27 C). This might lead to parasite activities to continue as similar to high carbon emission scenario.

Under low (B1) carbon emissions scenario the districts under minimum temperature for parasite development will sustain. This minimum temperature conditions will make the parasite activities to minimize and make sustenance critical in the winter season.

*Orange colour indicates most districts having favourable conditions for parasite activities.

Fig. 6: Number of Districts with Minimum Temperatures (25–27 C)

The graphs showing that the number of districts having optimum temperature is due to High carbon emission scenario (A2)/(A1B). Low carbon emission scenario (B1) would lead temperature with unfavourable optimum conditions for parasite activities.

CONCLUSIONS

The GIS mapping for weather parameters that regulate vector-borne diseases can be visualized using Spatial Raster Analysis techniques for influencing theme layers. In this study two important weather parameters i.e., humidity and temperature which are influencing vector-borne diseases occurrence are studied for inter-relations. Further, one of the most influential parameter—temperature is analyzed for baseline year (2011–2015) as well as future mid-century (2046–2065) scenario. The GIS mapping depicts the temperature vulnerable districts with reference to the parasite activities and parasite favourable development conditions in baseline and future scenarios. This study can be extended to various other seasons and several additional influencing parameters using spatial analysis.


REFERENCES [1] Bruce-Chwatt, L.J. (1980). Epidemiology of Malaria. In: Essential Malariology, William

Heinemann Medical Books Ltd., London, 129–168 pp. [2] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2007). Climate Change 2007 [Fourth

Assessment Report (AR4) of the IPCC]: Cambridge, UK, Cambridge University Press, the AR4 Synthesis Report and 3 V. (The physical science basis, by Working Group I; Impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability, by Working Group II; Mitigation of climate change, by Working Group III). Available at http://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ publications_and_data_reports.htm

[3] Martens, W.J., Nissen, L.W., Rothmans, J., Jetten, T.H. and McMichael, A.J. (1995). Potential Impact of Global Climate Change on Malaria Risk. Environ Health Perspect, 103: 458–464.

94

Variations in Rainfall Trends over Karnataka

C.N. Prabhu*, G.S. Srinivasa Reddy, N.G. Keerthi, Emily Prabha, S.S.M. Gavaskar and Prashanth Hiremath

Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre, Bengaluru, Karnataka *E-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT: Earth’s Climate has been changing with different patterns and effects at different time-scales. The climate change in the past has been attributed to the Natural processes but the recent changes in climate is a combined effect of both Natural and anthropogenic activity. The resultant impact is on the regional and local hydrological cycle through extreme weather events like prolonged drought, flood and variations in monsoon cycles in the tropics. A study is carried out to understand the variations in regional rainfall pattern in Coastal and Malnad region in Karnataka and its relations to climate change. The trend analysis of annual rainfall data shows a decreasing trend in the last two decades and the project rainfall trend suggests about 7–8% decrease in rainfall in the next 3 decades. The variations in solar activity could be the factor triggering variations in rainfall pattern.

Keywords: Anthropogenic Activity, Climate Change, Solar Activity, Malnad

INTRODUCTION

arth’s Climate has been changing with different patterns and effects at Million years – Thousand years – Century – Decadal – Annual time-scales (Schiermeier,

2011, Wu et al., 2013 and Lunt et al., 2013). Several studies across the world have reconstructed the history of climate change (Loulergue et al., 2008). The past climate variations in and around India has also been reconstructed by several studies (Sukumar et al., 1993, Agnihotri et al., 2002, Prabhu et al., 2003 and Prabhu and Shankar, 2005). The climate change has been attributed to two important factors namely Natural and Anthropogenic processes.

The Milankovitch cycles, namely Eccentricity (orbit), Obliquity (tilt) and Precession (wobble) which are related to the effect that the Earth’s positioning with respect to the sun, which is a natural process, has an impact on the Earth’s climate (Hays et al., 1976). The Earth’s orbital patterns are always changing and theses variation follows cyclical patterns that take thousands of years to repeat. The point of the Earth is at in the cycle changes the distribution of solar radiation, and therefore, cooling or warming

E

Variations in Rainfall Trends over Karnataka 95

in different parts of the world. The amount and distribution of solar energy that Earth has received (due to the Earth’s natural orbital variations) is thought to be responsible for triggering major climate epochs in the past, such as ice ages.

The climate has also varied during the Holocene, the period of Earth’s history covering approximately the last 11,500 years since the last ice age. The climate records reveals as many as six periods of significant rapid climate change during the time periods 9000–8000, 6000–5000, 4200–3800, 3500–2500, 1200–1000, and 600–150 cal yr B.P. Most of the climate change events in these globally distributed records are characterized by polar cooling, tropical aridity and major atmospheric circulation changes (Mayewski et al., 2004). In the most recent interval (600–150 cal yr B.P.), polar cooling was accompanied by increased moisture in some parts of the tropics.

These natural cycles have, in the past, resulted in regional and global climates that are very different than our climate today. These natural influences are still at work but have recently been overshadowed somewhat by one more factor, i.e. the influences of human activities. Thus, the variations in climate in the recent centuries are being attributed to anthropogenic processes. Human activities have contributed to climate change by causing changes in Earth’s atmosphere in the amounts of greenhouse gases, aerosols and cloudiness. The largest known contribution has come from the burning of fossil fuels, which releases carbon dioxide gas into the atmosphere. Greenhouse gases and aerosols have affected climate by altering incoming solar radiation and outgoing infrared (thermal) radiation that are part of Earth’s energy balance. Changing the atmospheric abundance or properties of these gases and particles has led to a warming or cooling of the climate system. Since the start of the industrial era (about 1750), the overall effect of human activities on climate has been a warming influence. The human impact on climate during this era greatly exceeded due to known changes in natural processes, such as solar changes and volcanic eruptions.

It is evident that during the post-industrialization period the magnitude of variations in terms of rising temperature and extreme weather events is very much higher than the past. It has been suggested that the effect of climate change will have a greater impact on the tropical region at regional and local scales. The prolonged aridity and/or extreme rainfall events in the tropics, significant changes in the monsoon circulation, etc. are expected to be the result of this climate change at regional and local scale.

Thus, it is necessary to understand the magnitude of climate change and its impact at regional and local scale. Such an understanding will help in planning and implementing the adaptation strategies to the changing conditions.

To understand the spatial and temporal variations in climate and the resultant change in rainfall and temperature pattern over Karnataka, in this study, the decadal scale variation in rainfall pattern over Coastal and Malnad region in Karnataka has been studied.


STUDY AREA

The climate of the Karnataka state is determined mainly by the geographical location with respect to the sea, monsoon winds and physiography. Karnataka state has sub-Humid—humid climate on the West Coast and the Western Ghats and semi-arid to arid (very warm) climate in central and northern districts of plateau region. The year is divided into four seasons viz., winter (December–January–February), summer (March to May); South-West monsoon (June to September) and North East monsoon (October to November). The occurrence of rainfall and its spatial distribution is

Fig. 1: Map Showing Normal Annual Rainfall Pattern in Karnataka


highly variable. Taluk-wise Normal rainfall of the state varies from 408 mm to 5051 mm. Rainfall contribution is very high, from Southwest Monsoon season (around 80% of the state rainfall), it is seen that the annual rainfall is highest (5051 mm) over the Western Ghats and lowest (408 mm) in the eastern parts of Chitradurga district. More than 2/3rd of the state receives less than 750 mm of rainfall. Annual Variability (CV) of the rainfall ranges from 16 to 40%. The atmospheric temperature in the state ranges from 23°C to 43°C in summer and 9°C to 27°C in winter.

Coastal and Maland Regions of Karnataka

The state has been divided into four regions namely South Interior Karnataka, North Interior Karnataka, Malnad (Western Ghats region) and Coastal Karnataka. Of these four regions, Coastal and Malnad region are the highest rainfall receiving areas in Karnataka.

The region is bounded on the east by the Western Ghats and on the west by the Arabian Sea. There are three districts namely Dakshina Kannada, Uttara Kannada and Udupi.

Malnad region has four districts namely Shivamogga, Hassan, Chikkamagluru and Kodagu. Also, Malnad districts host part of Western Ghats in Karnataka.

The district wise normal annual rainfall for Coastal and Malnad region is given in Table 1.

Table 1: District Wise Normal Annual Rainfall for Coastal and Malnad Region

District Normal Annual Rainfall (mm) (1960–2016)

Shivamogga 1733 Hassan 1023 Chikkamagaluru 1839 Kodagu 2596 Dakshina Kannada 3887 Udupi 4114 Uttara Kannada 2799

THE DATA AND METHODOLOGY

The district wise annual rainfall data for the Coastal and Malnad region for the last two decades, from 1997 to 2016, has been used for this study. The trend analysis has been carried out and was obtained annually, seasonally and monthly. Trend slope is tested by using the Man-Kandall test and increasing/decreasing trend of the slope is obtained by Sens method (Sens, 1968). The significance level is taken at 5% trend slope.


Fig. 2: Map Showing the Coastal and Malnad Region in Karnataka


The Time-Series analysis of rainfall data for the Coastal District shows that during 2016, Coastal region recorded rainfall 24% less than the normal, which is lowest in the last 45 years. Also, several years the rainfall has less than the normal in the last 4 decades.

Similarly, the time series analysis of rainfall data for the Malnad region shows that during 2016, the rainfall was 34% less than the normal, which is similar to 1976 rainfall and is the lowest in last 45 years. The data shows that the rainfall has been varying significantly and also many years it has recorded below normal rainfall.


Fig. 3: Percentage Departure of Cumulative Rainfall from Normal

over Coastal and Malnad Regions (1971–2016)

Fig. 4: Rainfall Trend in the Coastal Region the Last Two Decades (1997–2016)


Fig. 5: Rainfall Trend in the Malnad Region the Last Two Decades (1997–2016)

The inter-annual variability of rainfall is evident from the rainfall data from both the regions. The reduction in annual rainfall against the normal observed in the recent years suggests that there is a change in precipitation pattern in both the regions. It is also observed that the changes both in pattern and magnitude of rainfall trend are different for Coastal region and Malnad.

The rainfall data analysis shows a decreasing trend in rainfall both in Coastal and Malnad region in the last two decades. The continuation of observed trend would result in a decrease in 7–8% rainfall in Coastal region in the next three decades. For preparing the Karnataka State Action Plan on Climate Change (SAPCC) – 2015 the climate trend has been studied and the 1st assessment report suggested that compared to the 1961–1990 rainfall trend there would be about 5% variation in Annual Rainfall over Coastal and Malnad region in the next three decades from 2021 to 2050. The present study also corroborates the earlier findings and the preliminary results indicate that the variation in Annual Rainfall would be little more than the SAPCC’s projections. This study will be extended to each district in both the regions to get a better understanding of the rainfall pattern, future trend and its impact.

Influence of Solar Activity on the Regional Rainfall Pattern

The variations in solar activity have been identified as the prime factor for the climate change (Dergachev et al., 2007). It could be due to changes in solar activity, including the energy output of the sun, and changes in the internal variability of the ocean-


atmosphere system. Simulations of time-dependent climate response to solar radiative forcing for the last 500–1000 year indicate that solar forcing indeed dominates over internal variability in generating temperature variations at decadal and longer time- scales and large spatial scales (Rind et al., 1999; Amman, 2005).

Bhattacharya and Narasimha (2005) have observed the strongest connections between solar activity and rainfall along the west coast and in central India. The major effect of higher solar activity may be because of a displacement in the Hadley cell. Such a displacement of coherent circulation patterns, depending on its magnitude, can have different effects on rainfall in different regions. Therefore, the observed variations in rainfall pattern and the projected decreasing trend in rainfall over Coastal and Malnad region could be linked to the variations in the solar activity over the region which needs to be studied carefully. Such a study would also reveal the causes of variations in solar activity and their effect on the regional rainfall and ecology as well.

CONCLUSION Earth’s Climate has been changing with different patterns and effects at different time-scales. The climate change in the past has been attributed to the Natural processes but the recent changes in the climate is a combined effect of both Natural and Anthro- pogenic activity. The resultant impact is on the regional and local hydrological cycle through extreme weather events like prolonged drought, flood and variations in monsoon cycles in the tropics. The variations in the rainfall pattern in Coastal and Malnad region of Karnataka could be due to climate change. The decreasing rainfall trend observed in the last 2 decades would continue and there would be about 7–8% decrease in rainfall in the next 3 decades. The variations in solar activity could be the factor triggering variations in rainfall pattern. A detailed study of the solar activity and its relation to the regional rainfall is necessary to understand the rainfall trends in future and its impact on the regional ecology.

REFERENCES [1] Agnihotri, R., Dutta, K., Bhushan, R. and Somayajulu, B.L.K. (2002). Evidence for Solar

Forcing on the Indian Monsoon during the Last Millennium. Earth Planetary Science Letters, 198: 521–527.

[2] Hays, J.D., Imbrie, J. and Shackleton, N.J. (1976). Variations in the Earth’s Orbit: Pacemaker of the Ice Ages. Science, 194(4270): 1121–1132.

[3] Loulergue, L., Schilt, A., Spahni, R., Masson-Delmotte, V., Blunier, T., Lemieux, B., Barnola, J.M., Raynaud, D., Stocker, T.F. and Chappellaz, J. (2008). Orbital and Millennial-Scale Features of Atmospheric Ch4 over the Past 800,000 Years. Nature, 453: 383–386.

[4] Lunt, D.J., Elderfield, H., Pancost, R., Ridgwell, A., Foster, G.L., Haywood, A., Kiehl, J., Sagoo, N., Shields, C., Stone, E.J. and Valdes P. (2013). Warm Climates of the Past— A Lesson for the Future? Phil Trans Royal Society A., 371: 146.

COASTAL


[5] Mayewskia, P.A., Rohling, E.E., Curt Stager, J., Karlén, W., Maasch, K.A., Meeker, L.D., Meyerson, E.A., Gasse, F., Kreveld, S.V., Holmgren, K., Lee-Thorph, J., Rosqvist, G., Rack, F., Staubwasser, M., Schneiderk, R.R. and Steig, E.J. (2004). Holocene Climate Variability. Quaternary Research, 62: 243–255.

[6] Parthasarathy, B., Kumar, K. Rupa and Munot, A.A. (1993). Homogeneous Indian Monsoon Rainfall: Variability and Prediction, Proc. Indian Acad. Sci. Earth Planet. Sci., 102: 121–155.

[7] Prabhu, C.N., Shankar, R., Anupama, K., Taieb, M., Bonnefile, R., VIidal, L. and Prasad, S. (2004). A 200-ka Palaeoclimatic Record Deduced from Pollen and Oxygen Isotopic Analyses of Sediment Cores from the Eastern Arabian Sea. Palaeogeography, Palaeocli- mate, Palaeoecology, 214(4): 309–321.

[8] Prabhu, C.N. and Shankar, R. (2005). Palaeoproductivity of the Eastern Arabian Sea during the Past 200 ka: A Multi-Proxy Investigation. Deep-Sea Research-II, 52(14–15), 1994–2002.

[9] Schiermeier, Q. (2011). Increased Flood Risk Linked to Global Warming. Nature, 470, 316.

[10] Sukumar, R., Ramesh, R., Pant, R.K. and Rajagopalan, G. (1993). A δ13C Record of Late Quaternary Climate Change from Tropical Peats in Southern India. Nature, 364: 703–706.

[11] Dergachev, V.A., Raspopov, O.M., Damblon, F., Jungner, H. and Zaitseva, G.I. (2007). Natural Climate Variability during the Holocene. Radiocarbon, 49(2)2: 837–854.

[12] Wu, P., Christidis, N. and Stott, P. (2013). Anthropogenic Impact on Earth’s Hydrological Cycle. Nature Climate Change, 3: 807–810.

103

Communicating Climate Change Impacts Using Cognitive Science: A Case of Peri-Urban Bangalore

Arvind Lakshmisha* and Priyanka Agarwal Environment Governance Group, Public Affairs Centre, Bengaluru, Karnataka


ABSTRACT: To respond to future climate change, knowledge on potential impacts of climate change and identification of vulnerability is of fundamental ımportance for informed decisions on the design and implementation of adaptation strategies. In the ongoing context of imminent urbanisation, there is increasing stress on the water resources due to growing population and rising per capita requirement. The current form of unplanned extraction and consumption of resources by urban areas from its periphery coupled with changing climate has impacted availability, quantity and quality of water resources. Jurisdictional ambiguity, lack of co- operation and the absence of coordination among the various governmental bodies often results in uncertain actions among stakeholders. There is a need for managing water in a sustainable manner through community involvement and initiatives for implementing effective adaption programs.

Our study captures uncertain knowledge among stakeholders to identify the drivers and conditions of water security, specific to the peri-urban areas of Bangalore. The study uses Fuzzy Cognitive Maps (FCM), which provides a rigorous scientific approach that quantifies subjective knowledge of varied groups. It is a practical and potentially powerful tool used for anticipatory action research by incur- porating multiple stressors for planning. Two hundred and forty FCMs were drawn with the stakeholders to capture their behaviours of how water security in their areas is impacted. The maps drawn were condensed and analysed using graph theory. Neural networks calculations were undertaken to simulate policy options under six scenarios, resulting in identifying options for implementation by local and state governments, discussed at a policy dialogue platform.

Keywords: Climate Change, Water Security, Fussy Cognitive Maps, Urbanisation, Citizen Science

INTRODUCTION ndia’s carbon contribution is lower than many other developed/developing countries of the world. But this is set to change dramatically in the coming decade due to

increasing urban population. As urban population grows, pressure on ecosystems I


increases, large quantities of food, fuel and water need to be moved into urban areas and huge amounts of garbage and sewage have to be moved out (Base.d-p-h.info, 2010). Ecosystems such as aquifers and wetlands, farmlands and forests are essential for the survival of urban areas as much as transport networks. Water resource, one of the most vital and the most abused resource, is the best example of the precarious relationship between urban areas and natural systems. The city of Aurangabad, Maharashtra gets its water from 118 km, a journey that involves enormous expendi- tures (Janaagraha.org, 2015).

Over the past decade, a new amalgamated space that straddles the boundaries of urban areas has been drawing the attention of scholars. Known as the ‘Peri-Urban Interface’ (PUI), this area is defined as ‘zone of (dynamic) transition or interaction between urban and rural areas; usually use in the context of rapidly urbanizing poor countries’ (Simon, 2008). These dynamic zones are the main sources of supply of resources such as water to meet the needs of urban areas and act as recipients of waste generated within the surrounding urban areas. Hence, we can ascertain that there is a bi-directional flow between urban and peri-urban areas resulting in a flux or a dynamic state which is in transition.

While urban demographic transformation is unfolding, the changing climate is expected to affect the hydrological cycle. This change is likely to affect precipitation patterns, with some areas becoming wetter and other becoming drier. In this regard, the trends in climate and demographics will pose a fundamental challenge, how will water be provided to urban areas in a sustainable manner (McDonald et al., 2011). To evaluate how climate change will affect the precarious balance between water availability and demand, it is crucial to assess the entire array of social costs or benefits of any change in water availability and use. Institutions that govern water resources play an important role in determining the overall water security in view of the impacts [social], as well as sectoral gains and losses (Ipcc.ch, 2007).

United Nations, defines water security as ‘the capacity of a population to safeguard sustainable access to adequate quantities of acceptable quality of water for sustaining livelihoods, human well-being, and socio-economic development to ensure protection against water-borne pollution and water-related disasters, and to preserve ecosystems in a climate of peace and political stability’ (Unwater.org, 2013). Access to potable water and sanitation is considered a basic human right and yet billions do not have easy access to these services. It is estimated that approximately 1.8 billion people use a water source that has faecal contamination and approximately 40% of the world’s population suffers from water scarcity (United Nations, 2016).

The UN’s Sustainable Development Goal 6 addresses this shortcoming by aiming to provide clean water and sanitation to all by 2030. While such a water crisis is a

Communicating Climate Change Impacts Using Cognitive Science 105

common phenomenon across developing countries, India has the largest population of 76 million people who do not have access to clean water. A much larger proportion of the country’s population is faced with water scarcity and is forced to make do with irregular access to water (Water Aid America, 2016). Residents in peri-urban areas largely fall into this second category and have to negotiate with water insecurity that is driven by several factors unique to the peri-urban space.

This paper looks at how urbanisation in conjunction with climate change has impacted this interface on the periphery of urban areas. The paper uses cognitive mapping approaches to capture knowledge among various stakeholders and develops six scenarios based on identifying policy options to improve water security in the region.

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

Literature on peri-urban areas in India is already scant and it is predominantly focused in areas around Delhi, Hyderabad and Chennai. This paper highlights a study conducted in the peri-urban areas of Bangalore and thus aides in identifying the drivers and conditions of water-security, specific to the peri-urban areas of Bangalore city. Narain (2011) in his analysis of water issues in peri-urban areas highlights that the problem is not merely one of scarcity but that of security. He identifies three domains over which conflicts to water resources take place—quantity of water, quality of water and access to water sources (Narain, 2011). These three categories also emerge in Allen et al. (2006) investigation into a group of people termed as the ‘peri-urban water poor’. The defining features of this group include ‘informal/illegal access to water, access to poor-quality water and insufficient access to water’ (Allen et al., 2003). Water security can thus be understood to consist of these three dimensions.

The Quantity of Water: A review of the available literature on peri-urban highlights that water availability of water to peri-urban communities decreased due to increased demand from urban areas and demand from near-by industrial areas. The latter is particularly threatening due to the extensive scale of operation. For instance, Janakarajan et al. (2008) call attention to the fact that the Metro water board transports more than 6000 tanker loads of water each day to Chennai city from its peri-urban areas. Similarly, in his study on the peri-urban areas of Hyderabad, Prakash (2014) highlights how the city’s peri-urban residents have lost out to the wealthier urban middle-class populations and are deprived of sufficient water. In addition to the extraction of water by tankers, peri-urban water supplies are also attractive for mineral water companies who extract groundwater, purify and sell them, further increasing the pressure on peri-urban water supply (Janakarajan et al., 2011). In addition to this, the increase in pressure of groundwater resources is most evident when one examines the state of bore wells in India—In May 2016, 4000 bore wells in and around Bengaluru went dry, possibly due to overexploitation (Deccan Herald, 2016). Borewells are also being


dug deeper into the ground as water resources closer to the surface are being drained (Deccan Chronicle, 2016).

Rapid and continued exploitation of peri-urban water resources not only reduce the absolute quantity of water available to households but it also affects the regenerative capacity of groundwater systems. The high demand for water from the urban core results in unregulated water harvesting, where water is extracted at much higher rates than that of replenishment. The lowering of the water table also makes it harder for low-income households dependent on groundwater as they lack the resources to extract water from greater depths. In addition to such urban drivers of water shortage, climate variability has also been reported to lead to a reduction in the quantity of available water.

Quality of Water: Water security is also threatened by the deteriorating quality of water sources in peri-urban areas. Industrialisation on urban fringes results in the dumping of industrial effluents or chemical discharges into groundwater or water bodies (Dahiya, 2007). Such a state is largely attributable to the lack of industrial regulations in peri-urban areas, where effective environmental governance is present in negligible amounts (Simon, 2008). Further, sewage from the increased population load in peri-urban areas also leads to water pollution when it is released into water bodies without treatment (Shaw, 2005), primarily due to lack of sanitation infrastructure. In addition, peri-urban population depend on rivers flowing downstream through the urban core, which receive heavily contaminated water due to the improper disposable of residential and industrial wastes (Simon, 2008). Depending on the extent of contamination, peri-urban households may resort to buying water from other sources such as mineral water companies. However, it is not uncommon for low-income households to consume water of poor quality due to the lack of alternatives (Simon, 2008).

Access to Water: In several instances, the poor purchasing power among residents and jurisdictional ambiguity of peri-urban governance result in communities not having a regular water supply. The low frequency of water supply is often an issue of in- convenience for peri-urban households. There have been instances where peri-urban dwellers lose all access to their traditional sources of water. The accessibility of peri-urban areas to the economic markets, result in water bodies being lost to other purposes, inhibiting access to households. For example, the filling up of water bodies for urban acquisition is a common phenomenon across India (Narain, 2010), which displaces communities that have traditionally been using the source. At times, even if water bodies are not eradicated, their management is transferred to corporate bodies, making them inaccessible to the public. In their analysis of the peri-urban interface in Shahpur Khurd, Narain and Nischal (2007) note that three ponds in the village traditionally used by residents are now auctioned off by the village panchayat to fisheries contractors. Such emerging market relations further threaten the water security of peri-urban dwellers.


Behind several considerations of water security mentioned above, is the issue of governance. There is a general consensus among scholars that the lack of proper governance is the main driver of water insecurity in peri-urban areas. Shaw (2005) highlights that peri-urban areas ‘generally lack the institutional capacities and governance structures’ to respond to the changes happening in their area. A key reason for this lack of governance capacity is that peri-urban areas often fall through the cracks when it comes to authorities as cities are managed by municipalities and while villages are managed by panchayats—which body has authority over which sectors of the peri-urban space often varies from state to state (Prakash, 2014). Jurisdictional ambiguity, lack of co-operation and the absence of coordination among the various governmental bodies often result in peri-urban issues not being addressed effectively (Prakash, 2014). It should be noted that while effective governance is impeded in peri-urban areas due to the reasons mentioned above, market-based solutions do not preserve the water security of peri-urban residents either (Allen et al., 2006). This is attributable to the low purchasing power of peri-urban residents, which do not provide sufficient incentive for the private companies to meet their water needs (Allen et al., 2006). It is given this dual failure of both the state and the market that several scholars have resorted to calling for greater community involvement and initiatives in addressing issues of water security. For instance, in analysing the plight of a peri-urban community in Chennai, Shaw (2005) proposes ‘looking beyond dependence on government and attempting to solve problems through community or local involvement’. Such citizen participation is considered ideal for it allows householders, as key stakeholders in the issue of water insecurity, to identify and prioritize the problems to be addressed, set the agenda for action and assess the efficiency of the measures taken to address the problems (Swedish Water House, 2007). A more ground-up approach then reduces the dependency of these communities on local government bodies and is expected to result in more effective solutions that benefit the community. Ideally, such participatory initiatives should be inclusive and be carried out at a sufficiently small scale to ensure that subgroups that vary in economic and social status are not marginalised (Swedish Water House, 2007). Integral to such citizen empowerment is the presence of civil society organisations that enable and facilitate communities in identifying and addressing problems of water security (Dahiya, 2003).

MATERIALS AND METHODS A Fuzzy Cognitive Mapping (FCM) approach was used in this study. FCMs are models of how a system operates based on defined variables and the causal links between these variables. These variables can be measurable physical quantities or complex aggregates. The person making the maps decides what variables are important that affect the system and then draws causal relationships among them, indicating the


relative strength and sign of the relationships between –1 and 1. Once the maps are drawn their structure can be analysed using graph theory and outcomes determined through cognitive mapping computations.

Interviews and Drawing Fuzzy Cognitive Maps

In this research 80 interviews were conducted with stakeholders belonging to four different stakeholder groups (Table 1). In total 221 people (86 men and 135 women) participated in the drawing of 240 maps. Before drawing cognitive maps, the field staff drew their own maps to understand the local ecosystem. Thus, the interviewers were aware of their map and realised their biases while drawing maps with the stakeholders.

Table 1: Classification of Stakeholder for Drawing Cognitive Maps

Categories No. of Groups Total Number

of Maps Men Women Agricultural Labourers 1 1 6 Livestock Herders 1 2 9 Industrial Labourers 1 1 6 Farmers 1 2 9 Total per village 4 6 30

Cognitive maps were drawn as prescribed by Ozesmi (1999) and Carley and Palmquist (1992). The interviewer listed the names, occupation and gender of the correspondents on the chart paper. The stakeholders were briefed about the reasons behind the research before the start of the interview. Once the respondents understood this, they were asked: ‘If I mention variation in Rainfall and water security, what are the factors, things, variables that come to your mind?’ Similarly, questions were asked for an increase in temperature and urbanisation.

The interviewees were then asked to list the factors on the paper. Once listed the respondents were asked to explain the relationships between the variables and draw lines between them to represent their relationships. Respondents were then asked to mark these lines with arrows to indicate their directions, and give signs of positive or negative and strengths: high (1), moderate (0.5) and low (0). If the interviewees seemed confused, or not focussed on the mapping, they were asked non-directional questions. The process continued till the interviewees felt they had nothing more to add, thus completing the map. After the completion of the maps, they were transformed into adjacency matrix according to principles of graph theory. The variable Vi were listed on the vertical axis and Vj on the horizontal axis thus, forming a square matrix.


Condensed Cognitive Maps and Calculating the Indices

The square matrix developed by individual stakeholders was combined into village wise cognitive maps by adding the augmented matrices as developed by Kosko (1988). Each of the stakeholder maps was given equal weightages before being condensed. Condensation is undertaken to reduce the complexities associated with fuzzy cognitive maps, due to numerous variables and connections between them. As FCMs are quite complex, graph theory indices provide a simplified way to analyse their structure (Ozesmi and Ozesmi, 2003).

The first step is to identify the number of variables (N) and the number of connections (C) in the condensed map. The density of the cognitive map (D) is an index of connectivity: D = C/(N (N–1)) or D = C/N2 if the map has self-loops i.e. if a variable can have a causal effect on itself (Hage and Harary, 1983; Ozesmi and Ozesmi, 2003). Ozesmi and Ozesmi (2003) provide details on how to calculate the other indexes upon counting the number of different types of variables. The variables are defined as outdegree [od(Vi)], row of sum of absolute values of a variable in the adjacency matrix and show the cumulative strength of connections (aij) exiting the variable,

1( )

N

ik

od V aik

The indegree [id(Vi)], is the column sum of absolute values of the variables and shows the cumulative strength of connection (aij) entering the variable,

1( )

N

ik

id V aki

This calculation is used to identify the transmitter variables [indicating forcing functions] which have a positive outdegree and a zero indegree. The receiver variables [indicating utility functions] have a zero outdegree and a positive indegree. Ordinary variables have positive outdegree and indegree (Bougon et al., 1977; Eden et al., 1992; Harary et al., 1965). Furthermore, the centrality of a variable is assessed to calculate the contribution of a variable in a cognitive map, which is the summation of the indegree and outdegree (Harary et al., 1965). The centrality of the variable is calculated by,

𝐶𝐶𝑖𝑖 = 𝑡𝑡𝑑𝑑(𝑉𝑉𝑖𝑖) = 𝑜𝑜𝑑𝑑(𝑉𝑉𝑖𝑖) + 𝑖𝑖𝑑𝑑(𝑉𝑉𝑖𝑖)

The next step is to calculate the complexity index of the map, which is the ratio of the receiver to transmitter variables (R/T). Maps with a large number of receiver variables are seen to be complex because they reflect many outcomes and implications that are a result of the system (Eden et al., 1992; Ozesmi and Ozesmi, 2003).



Based on our initial scoping and survey research it was found that the changing climate in conjunction has a key role in ensuring water security in peri-urban areas. This was found to be true upon analysing the cognitive maps as discussed in this section.

In the condensed social cognitive map, which includes 240 maps the strongest connections are between variations in rainfall and affecting agriculture practices, availability of drinking water, the quantity of drinking water including surface and groundwater available. Change in rainfall is also said to reduce the food security of the communities. Increase in temperature is seen to affect agricultural practices, reduce the availability of fodder and hence cattle in the region. In addition, it negatively impacts financial conditions and health of the communities along with water sources (ground and surface) and drinking water. Temperature is also seen to affect forests in a negative way. Whereas industries are seen to have the highest impact on financial conditions of the local communities, this increase in financial conditions is seen to be offset by spending on health-related issues caused due to changing the climate and increasing urbanisation. Urbanisation is said to increase the sale of agricultural land, leading to increasing in the number of industries and the level of pollution due to improper waste management systems. The maps also suggest that there has been an increase in the modern infrastructure facilities in the study area as a result of urbanisation (Figure 1).

Fig. 1: Model Assumptions and Implied Changes

Therefore, to improve the water security in the area which is negatively impacted by climate change and aggravated by urbanisation, there is a need to reduce pollution and the conversion and sale of agriculture land. The map also indicates a positive relation between surface water bodies and groundwater. Hence, there is a need to


improve surface water bodies such as lakes and tanks, present in large numbers in the region to improve groundwater, thus reducing the level of contamination and providing quality drinking water. This improvement in water sources will result in improved agriculture practices, as the current practice uses contaminated effluent water to cultivate crops which in turn harm the health conditions. Thus, improving water security will also lead to alternative benefits such as improving the health conditions of the communities, through improved food security.

Modelling different policy options in a fuzzy cognitive map helps identify and selecting the alternatives to achieve the goal of improving water security in the region. The policy options were done on the social cognitive map that included maps drawn by all stakeholders with equal weights. Steady-state conditions were first determined and all the variables were set to the value of 1. Various policy options were then run on the models, a variable was fixed at 1 if a variable was to be kept high or fixed at 0 if it was to be eliminated. In this paper we highlight one of the six cases of policy options that were run. The case run included various ways to increase water availability. The proposed changes included reduction of pollution and sewage water (fixed at 0) and improving agriculture practices as shown in Figure 2. Modelling these assumptions we can see that, there is a positive change in the health, and drinking water availability in the region. A moderate positive change can be seen in water (surface and ground) sources, in addition to forests. Thus, fodder availability increases moderately resulting in a surge in the cattle population, causing improvements in the dairy sector. These

Fig. 2: Social Cognitive Map Showing the Relationship between

Climate Parameters and Other Variables


outcomes also result in a strong positive increase in the financial conditions of the community. Thus, improving agriculture practices and reducing the current levels of pollution through effective enforcement of current policies is found to improve water security in the region. This sector will have positive repercussions on the health and financial conditions thus reducing local vulnerability to the impacts of climate change. The findings with recommendations were shared with Mr. T.M. Vijay Bhaskar, IAS, Additional Chief Secretary to the Department of Ecology, Forests and Environment Government of Karnataka (GoK) who directed the concerned authorities to undertake specific actions. A stakeholder consultation was conducted with experts from government departments, academia, practitioners and researchers in addition to peri-urban communities. This provided an inclusive platform for the community to share their local experiences with other stakeholders.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS

We would like to thank all the stakeholders from Manchanayakanahalli, without their participation this research would not have been possible. Special thanks to SACRED, Bidadi for organising field research and for the hospitality extended. This study has benefitted greatly from discussions with Mr. T.M. Vijaya Bhaskar, IAS, Additional Chief Secretary, Government of Karnataka, in addition to all the experts and researchers in the field of urban water governance. This research is funded by the Environmental Management and Policy Research Institute (EMPRI).

REFERENCES [1] Allen, A. (2003). Environmental planning and management of the peri-urban interface:

Perspectives on an emerging field. Environment and Urbanization, 15(1): 135–148. [2] Allen, A., Dávila, J.D. and Hofmann, P. (2006). The peri-urban water poor: Citizens or

consumers? Environment and Urbanization, 18(2): 333–351. [3] Base.d-p-h.info (2010). Impact of Climate change on Urban Areas in India. [online]

Available at: http://base.d-p-h.info/fr/fiches/dph/fiche-dph-8632.html [Accessed 3 Jan. 2017].

[4] Bougon, M., Weick, K. and Binkhorst, D. (1977). Cognition in organizations: an analysis of the Utrecht Jazz Orchestra. Admin. Sci. Quart, 22: 606–639.

[5] Carley, K. and Palmquist, M. (1992). Extracting, representing and analyzing mental models. Social Forces, 70: 601–636.

[6] Dahiya, B. (2003). Peri-urban environments and community driven development: Chennai, India. Cities, 20(5): 341–352. doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0839-5.

[7] Eden, C., Ackerman, F. and Cropper, S. (1992). The analysis of cause maps. J. Manage. Stud. 29, 309–323.

[8] Hage, P. and Harary, F. (1983). Structural Models in Anthropology. Oxford University Press, New York.


[9] Harary, F., Norman, R.Z. and Cartwright, D. (1965). Structural Models: An Introduction to the Theory of Directed Graphs. John Wiley & Sons, New York.

[10] IPCC, ch. (2007). 3.5.1 How will climate change affect the balance of water demand and water availability? - AR4 WGII Chapter 3: Fresh Water Resources and their Management. [online] Available at: https://www.ipcc.ch/publications_and_data/ar4/wg2/en/ch3s3-5-1.html [Accessed 3 Jan. 2017].

[11] Janaagraha.org (2015). [online] Availableat: http://www.janaagraha.org/indiausp/Space_ and_Urban_Environment.doc) [Accessed 3 Jan. 2017].

[12] Janakarajan, S. (2005). Dying agriculture, weakening environment and fading institutions: Declining livelihood options and capacity to adaptation for livelihood resilience in peri-urban villages of Chennai. Draft.

[13] Janakarajan, S., Butterworth, J., Moriarty, P. and Batchelor, C. (2007). Strengthened city, marginalised peri-urban villages: stakeholder dialogues for inclusive urbanisation in Chennai, India. Peri-Urban Water Conflicts: Supporting dialogue and negotiation, 51.

[14] Janakarajan, S., Llorente, M. and Zérah, M.H. (2006). Urban water conflicts in Indian cities: Man-made scarcity as a critical factor. In: Urban water conflicts: an analysis of the origins and nature of water-related unrest and conflicts in the urban context. Paris: UNESCO, 91–111.

[15] Kosko, B. (1988). Hidden patterns in combined and adaptive knowledge networks. In: Proceedings of the First IEEE International Conference on Neural Networks (ICNN-86), 2: 377–393.

[16] McDonald, R.I. et al. (2011). Urban growth, climate change, and freshwater availability. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 108(15), 6312–6317 pp. Available at: http://www.pnas.org/cgi/doi/10.1073/pnas.1011615108.

[17] Narain, V. (2011). ‘Peri-urban water flows in urban expansion planning’. Presentation given at the National Seminar organized by CSH, Human Settlement Management Institute, Delhi.

[18] Narain, V. (2010). Peri-urban water security in a context of urbanization and climate change: A review of concepts and relationships. Peri-Urban Water Security Discussion Paper Series (1).

[19] Narain, V. and Nischal, S. (2007). The peri-urban interface in Shahpur Khurd and Karnera, India. Environment and Urbanization 19(1): 261–273.

[20] Norström, A. (2007). Planning for drinking water and sanitation in peri-urban areas. Swedish Water House Report, 21.

[21] Özesmi, S.L., Tan, C.O. and Özesmi, U. (2006). Methodological issues in building, training, and testing artificial neural networks in ecological applications. Ecological Modelling, 195(1–2): 83–93.

[22] Özesmi, U. and Özesmi, S.L. (2004). Ecological models based on people’s knowledge: A multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping approach. Ecological Modelling, 176(1–2): 43–64.

[23] Özesmi, U. and Özesmi, S.L. (2004). Ecological models based on people’s knowledge: A multi-step fuzzy cognitive mapping approach. Ecological Modelling 176(1–2): 43–64 pp.


[24] Özesmi, U. (1999a). Conservation strategies for sustainable resource use in the Kizilirmak Delta in Turkey. Ph.D. dissertation, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, 230 pp.

[25] Özesmi, U. and Özesmi, S. (2003). A participatory approach to ecosystem conservation: fuzzy cognitive maps and stakeholder group analysis in Uluabat Lake, Turkey. Environ. Manage, 31(4): 518–531.

[26] Prakash, A. (2014). The periurban water security problem: A case study of Hyderabad in Southern India. Water Policy, 16(3): 454–469.

[27] Shaw, A. (1999). Emerging Patterns of Urban Growth in India, Economic and Political Weekly, 34: 969–78.

[28] Shaw, A. (2005). Peri-urban interface of Indian cities: growth, governance and local initiatives. Economic and Political Weekly, 40(2): 129–136.

[29] Simon, D. (2008). Urban Environments: Issues on the peri-urban fringe. Annual Review of Environmental Resources 33: 167–185.

[30] The Deccan Chronicle, 13th April (2016). ‘Hyderabad draws 6000-year-old water from borewell, says study’, Accessed at: http://www.deccanchronicle.com/nation/current-affairs/130416/hyderabad-draws-6000-year-old-water-from-borewell-says-study.html

[31] The Deccan Herald, 14th May (2016). ‘Water crisis looms large as 4,000 borewells go dry in a month’. Accessed at: http://www.deccanherald.com/content/544282/water-crisis-looms-large-4000.html

[32] United Nations (2016). Clean Water and Sanitation: Why it Matters. Available at: http://www.un.org/sustainabledevelopment/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/6_Why-it-Matters_Sanitation_2p.pdf

[33] Unwater.org (2013). UN-Water: Water security. [online] Available at: http://www. unwater.org/topics/water-security/en/ [Accessed 3 Jan. 2017].

[34] Water-Aid America (2016). India. [online] Available at: http://www.wateraid.org/us/ where-we-work/page/india [Accessed 3 Jan. 2017.

115

Vehicular Emission Monitoring System (VEMS)

Peter Manoj*, Vijay Mishra, Puneet Sharma and Mehboob Jailani Centre for Nano Science and Engineering (CeNSE), System Engineering Facility (SysEF),

Indian Institute of Science (IISc), Bengaluru, Karnataka *E-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT: The Global warming is caused due to multiple sources. Automobile emission contributes significantly to air pollution. The present reality is the majority of the vehicles ply on the city roads without emission check certificate. Noticeably, the emission checks are carried when the vehicle is at static state. This justifies the difference in emission level when the vehicle is moving with commuters. So there is a dire need for a vehicular emission monitoring at the source/tailpipe using sensors (CO, CO2, NO2, Temperature, Humidity and Pressure); are important to know the actual emission footprint of the vehicle. The VEMS is a system consisting of several subsystems, which facilitates the sensors to work beyond temperature reduction and particle removal. The sensor footprint data are important to the many namely: User, Automobile Manufacturers, Pollution control boards, NGOs and even the public/commuters.

The current state of VEMS is presented here that is, completion of design, simulation and performed experiments considering multiple parameters. We are envisioning to do the pilot test and for different vehicles.

Keywords: Vehicular Emission, Gas Sensor, Internet of Things (IoT), Air Pollution, System Engineering

INTRODUCTION

ir pollution is the fifth leading cause of death in India after high blood pressure, indoor air pollution, tobacco smoking and poor nutrition; with about 620,000

premature deaths occurring from air pollution-related diseases. Half of the urban population breathes air laced with particulate pollution that has exceeded the safety standards. Nearly one-third of the urban population is exposed to a critical level of particulate pollution. Smaller cities are among the most polluted in the country. On-road vehicular sources burning fossil fuel are the second largest Carbon Dioxide (CO2) emitters after fossil fuel-fired power plants. CO2 is the major Greenhouse Gas that is a precursor to climate change. According to World Meteorological Organization (WMO), CO2 concentration has increased by an average of 2.0 ppm per year for the last decade. At this current rate, the global annual average of CO2 concentration would cross the 400 ppm threshold in 2015 or 2016.

A


Bengaluru city has more than 90 lakh population within an area of 742 sq km. The population is increasing due to economic development in the city. This has led to increasing in a number of vehicles, diesel generator sets and other associated outfits. There is a number of areas within the city where the air pollution is high such as major traffic junctions, industrial areas, etc. For Bengaluru, CO2 concentration is around 400 ppm sometimes as high as 490 ppm. This has led to more number of hot days during summer for the city. Also, CO2 concentration within the city varies from area to area, depending on the traffic volume and other sources.

A recent study says India’s high air pollution is reducing most of the Indian lives over three years—The Economic Times, Feb. 2015. The major air pollution caused is due to carbon dioxide, unburned hydrocarbons, carbon monoxide, nitrous oxide, sulphur dioxide and particulate matter. On the other side, the vehicle growth is significantly increased on the other side as shown in the image below.

Figs. 1 and 2: Vehicular Growth and Total Emission Loads

in Bangalore from Transport Department

Vehicular Emission Monitoring System (VEMS) 117

The exhaust composition given by NTK–Exhaust composition indicates the percentage split indicating the pollutants from Petrol and Diesel engine.

Fig. 3: Exhaust Composition from NTK

Thus a rightful use of technology and strategies are required to address the vehicular air pollution problem.

REVIEW OF LITERATURE

A short literature study was carried out to know the existing sensing mechanism pertaining to vehicle emission monitoring and we found the usage of gas analysers. The major hurdle for it was high cost, no mobility and the size of the unit. The picture below shows an emission test centre that has a gas analyser unit, which uses the light scattering based technique to measure different gases.

Fig. 4: Emission Test Centre, Gas Analyser, Probe Inserted to Tailpipe and Display Readout


As mentioned earlier, the emission checks are done at the static position of the vehicle. Hence the need for low cost, on the go monitoring and a compact system are required.

Challenges/Factors Influencing Emission

Importantly, the exhaust/emission from vehicle depends on number of factors such as the stoichiometric ratio is the ideal ratio of air to fuel that burns all fuel with no excess air,

252

O2 + C8H18 → 8CO2 + 9H2O

Driving mode, Road network, Vehicle age, type and its usage (Source: VAPIS).

Temperature of exhaust gases.

Particulate matter size.

Hence during the design process of VEMS, these complex factors were taken into account.

Solution

The proposed solution is to build a Vehicular Emission Monitoring System (VEMS). This system is directly connected to a tailpipe which consists of several sub-systems:

Fig. 5: Block Diagram of Sensor Technology and Design Model of VEMS


for cooling and filtering the corrosive gas, dilution chamber and other accessories like pumps, valves, sensors, etc. The system enables the gas sensors to work at this reduced temperature. The sensor electronics unit called Envirobat is proposed to collect the sensor data. The PM and SO2 sensors are planned to be integrated into next phase of the project.

The purpose of VEMS is to find out the emission gases from automobiles through the sensors. By placing VEMS directly after the mufflers of the automobile and identifying the gases in real-time and getting those results in our gadgets or even in-vehicle display monitors. To achieve VEMS, design, simulation and pilot test has been carried out.

RESULTS AND CONCLUSION

The VEMS has been executed in following major steps and their outcomes are namely:

Modelling of entire setup (Figure 5).

Analysis using simulation tools of the entire setup for fluid, thermal and structural.

Fig. 6: Thermal Analysis before and after Cooling and Filtering Chamber

Fig. 7: Complete Flow Analysis—Zero Relative Pressure at Tailpipe


Fig. 8: Thermal Analysis of Cooling Chamber

Pilot Testing of Cooling Chamber

Fig. 9: Temperature Reduction to –2°C

Sensor electronics unit (Envirobat) displaying CO, NO2, CO2, temperature, humidity, pressure, data in ambient environment [Hebbar et al., 2014; Kashyap et al., 2016].

Fig. 10: Envirobat Displaying Sensor Data

Anticipated outcomes in next phase of VEMS.

Pilot test at lab keeping the complete VEMS.

Pilot at vehicle tailpipe and obtain Real-time pollution data analysis and report.

Test VEMS for different vehicles.


Significance of VEMS

The data will create significant importance to:

User: Awareness will bring a lot of sense to reduce global warming to promote carpool, fuel consumption can be optimized, promotion of public transport and proper maintenance of the vehicle.

Vehicle manufacturer can know their vehicle parameters, call for maintenance, understand engine patterns then improve it, upgrading pollutant vehicles thereby contribute to counteract global warming.

Large Industries/Startup: We are envisioning implementing this service for India “emission prevention as a service” with dedicated devices + apps creates a potential business case.

Government agencies/Joint drive forces can regulate and can take a proactive measures to control more emission areas.

CONCLUSION

Hence, the VEMS enables real-time sensing at the source. The deployment of sensors in significant numbers can help in knowing the total vehicular emission.

REFERENCES [1] Hebbar, S. et al. (2014). “System Engineering and Deployment of Envirobat an Urban

Air Pollution Monitoring Device,” 2014 IEEE International Conference on Electronics, Computing and Communication Technologies (CONECCT), Bangalore, 2014, pp. 1–6.

[2] Kashyap, M., Mishra, V. and Bhat, N. (2016). “Realtime Measurement of Carbon Dioxide (CO2) Levels at the Periphery of the Indian Institute of Science (IISc) Campus, Bengaluru”. The Indian Journal of Environmental Protection, 36.

122

Estimation of Methane Gas Emissions from Selected Municipal Solid Waste

Landfills of Urban Bangalore Papiya Roy*, M. Manjunatha, Ritu Kakkar,

Saswati Mishra and K.H. Vinaya Kumar Environmental Management and Policy Research Institute, Bengaluru, Karnataka


ABSTRACT: Urban sprawling across the globe is one of the many factors attri- buting to global climate change. The alarming rate of waste generation across the globe is leading to unscientific dumping of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in many cities. The disposal of MSW results in the emission of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from unscientific landfill because of aerobic decomposition of MSW. Generation of landfill gas mostly contains CH4 (about 50–60%) which has 25 times more global warming potential than the CO2. Dispersion of CH4 gas from the landfill to the nearby areas poses a potential threat to the natural environment including human population. Methane also has a considerable potential as a source of energy that can replace the number of fossil fuels currently in use. Gas extraction and utilization systems need to be designed and implemented in order to exploit this resource. Assessment of economic viability of gas extraction systems necessitates estimation of gas released from the existing landfills. Estimation of methane emission from landfill sites is one of the key gaps identified in INDC, submitted to UNFCC. In this context, to fill in the above mentioned gap, an effort is being made to quantify the CH4 emission from selected landfills in Bangalore through three independent methods viz, Triangular method, LandGEM and IPCC. The onsite instrumental analysis was conducted to monitor the gas generation and the results were compared and analysed. Results showed that significant quantity of CH4 is available in closed landfills and the same can be harnessed if requisite LFG management systems are installed. The use of Methane as an energy source maximizes the extraction of useful resources from landfills which in turn minimizes the global warming.

Keywords: Methane Estimation, Triangular Method, IPCC Default, LandGEM

INTRODUCTION eneration of solid waste is a continually growing concern at global, regional and local levels. The continuous increase in the urban population yields increasing

amount of waste volume globally. The alarming rate of waste generation is leading to G

Estimation of Methane Gas Emissions from Selected Municipal Solid Waste Landfills… 123

unscientific dumping of Municipal Solid Waste (MSW) in the cities like Bangalore. Finding solutions to this ever growing, pervasive and very real problem is not simple. Landfills are the final destinations for the wastes we create in our everyday lives.

OBJECTIVES

The objective of the present study is to quantify Methane gas production using two different methods namely, FOD triangular and gas sensor instrument. The quantification would serve as motivation for shifting from the present unscientific landfill to engineered landfills with provisions of gas collection and utilization systems.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Characteristics of Bangalore municipal solid waste and several studies (Chanakya and Sharatchandra, 2005; Ramachandra, 2011; Ramachandra et al., 2012) on MSW audit for Bangalore city found that household MSW contributes 55% to the total waste, which is the highest among all sources. The second largest source which generates about 20% of total waste is hotels and eateries. It was observed that fruit and vegetable market contribute about 15% of total waste, trade and commerce about 6%, and street sweeping and parks about 3%. The quantity of waste generated from different sources and their percentage by weight is combined in Table 1.

Table 1: Municipal Solid Waste Generation in Bangalore (2012)

Source Quantity (t/d)

Composition (% by weight)

Domestic 780 55

Markets 210 15

Hotels and eatery 290 20

Trade and commercial 85 6

Slums 20 1

Street sweepings and parks 40 3

Source: Ramachandra et al., 2012.

Waste composition changes with the source of generation, but most of the sources generated a major fraction (70%) of organic waste. Source wise physical composition of Bangalore solid waste composition is shown in Table 2.


Table 2: Physical Composition of Municipal Solid Waste in Bangalore

Waste Type

Composition (% by weight)

Domestic Market Hotels Trade and Commercial Slums

Street Sweepings and Parks

All Sources

Fermentable 72 90 76 16 30 90 72 Paper, cardboard 8 3 17 56 2 2 12 Cloth, rubber, PVC and leather

1 0.30

4 0.5 0 1

Glass 2 0.2 0.7 8 0 1 Plastics 7 7 2 17 2 3 6 Metals 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.2 0 0.2 Dust and sweeping

8 4 8 57 5 6

Source: TIDE, 2000.

In Bangalore, organic waste mainly consists of vegetable and fruit wastes; its percentage contribution ranges between 65 and 90% (Rajabapaiah, 1988; TIDE, 2000; Ramachandra, 2009; Chanakya et al., 2009). Determine the waste composition.

Table 3 summarizes the studies conducted by different researchers to determine the waste composition.

Table 3: Studies on Waste Composition (%) of Bangalore

Study Area Waste Type

Beukering (1994)

TIDE (2000)

Sathish Kumar et al. (2001)

CPCB (2004–05)

BBMP (2008)

Ramachandra et al. (2012)

Glass 0.24 1.43 3 1.4

Plastic 0.48 6.23 9 22.43 12 6.2

Paper 3.12 11.6 18 13 11

Metal 0.05 0.23 1 1

Organic 57.04 72 73 51.84 59 72

Other 38.08 6.5 6.5 Municipal solid waste management is associated with the control of waste generation, storage, collection, transfer and transport, processing, and disposal. The management should be in accordance with the best principles of public health, economics, engineering, conservation, aesthetics, public attitude, and other environmental considerations.


Gas Sensor Method of Estimation

Gas sensor analysis was carried out in the selected landfill. Measurement of Methane emission by using gas sensor instrument was carried out in each study site twice a week in a month. The instrument reading was fixed for an interval of 30 secs. The instrument recording was carried out for 4 hours in each study site. The emission data was later transferred to a computer for further analysis.

Fig. 1: Gas Sensor Instrument

In order to calculate the emission per ton of waste, one kilogram of waste was segregated from heaps of windrows at 50 cm depth from the top in waste processing unit as well as landfills. On an average, 1 hour sampling was carried out for a different segment of waste. The final estimation of total emission, therefore, converted into yearly emission by multiplying 365 days × 24 hours. Further, for the processing units, total waste quantity was calculated by multiplying 365 days with current waste processing data as provided by BBMP.

Estimation of Methane through Triangular Method

The first-order decay method provides a time-dependent emission profile that reflects the true pattern of the degradation process over time. The FOD method requires data on current as well as historic waste quantities, composition and disposal practices for several decades. Since the historical data is not available for most cities of India, this method cannot be used for estimation of realistic method, which will account for variation in the waste deposition, the degree of stabilisation, the zone for aerobic and anaerobic decomposition and the most importantly the cycle over which LFG is generated from the deposited waste. Therefore, a modified approach is proposed wherein the biogas release is based on FOD in a triangular form as shown in Figure 2.


Where the area of the triangle would be equivalent to the gas released over the period from every tonne of solid waste deposited. In the absence of detailed data, this area (volume of gas) is assumed to be equal to the volume computed using the default methodology. It is also assumed that the degradation takes place in two phases. The first phase starts after one year of deposition and rate increases, which continues for 6 years. Therefore, the second phase starts when the gas generation decreases and becomes zero after 15 years. The Methane emission estimated using the default method is equated to the area of the triangle. The ‘h’ value, i.e. peak value, of methane emission shown in Figure 2 is calculated knowing the volume of gas and base of the triangle. Using the peak value (h), other ordinates are calculated.

Activity Data Considered for Triangular Method in the Study

From the starting year of deposition, the gas generated between (2008–2014) for Mandur and between years (2012–2015) for Bingipura landfill are computed. The same procedure is applied for every year and the gas emission values for consecutive years are added up to get the volume of Methane emission for every year.

Fig. 2: FOD in a Triangular Form

RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS

Estimation of methane through gas sensor method.

Gas sensor analysis was carried out in the selected landfill in the study site, twice a week in a month. The instrument was fixed at an interval of 30 seconds. The instrument


recording was carried out for 4 hours in each study site. The emission data was later transferred to a computer for further analysis. The average emission estimated in the Bingipura landfill is 1.9 Gg/yr.

Methane Emission Estimation based on Triangular Methodology

Methane emissions were estimated at Bingipura (for 2012 to 2015) landfill using the FOD triangular method. The estimated values using triangular form are close to realistic values, as it assumed that the gas generation follows triangular form and keeps on generating for the next 12 and 13 years. Every year the methane is generated due to waste deposition in the past years. The Table 4 represents the year wise inventory of CH4 generation from Mandur and Bingipura landfills.

Table 4: Estimation of Methane Emission (in tons) using the Triangular Method

Year Bingipura Landfill (2012 to 2015) 2008 0 2009 0 2010 0 2011 0 2012 0 2013 369.44 2014 1108.32 2015 2216.64 2016 3694.40 2017 5172.16 2018 6649.92 2019 6280.48 2020 5541.60 2021 4802.72 2022 4063.84 2023 3324.96 2024 2586.08 2025 1847.20 2026 1108.32 2027 738.88 2028 554.16


The year wise availability of CH4 gases in the landfills are estimated through triangular method. It shows that Bingipura landfill, peak availability of CH4 gas will happen in the year 2018.

Comparative Analysis of Two Different Methods

The estimation of CH4 emissions using the two different methods are shown in Table 5. Results of the IPCC method indicate a CH4 emission potential of approximately 46.4 Gg/yr, 70.6 Gg/yr and 11.3 Gg/yr in the Mandur, Bingipura and Belahalli landfills respectively. The LandGEM estimates the total CH4 emission to be 13.6 Gg/yr from Mandur and 3.76 Gg/yr from Bingipura and 0.61 Gg/year in Belahalli disposal sites.

Table 5: Comparative Analysis of Different Models CH4 Emission

Landfill Site Triangular Method Sensor

Instrument

In Gg/year

Bingipura (closed) 3.7 1.97 The emission rate estimated by the gas sensor method was 1.97 Gg/yr in Bingipura landfill. It can be observed that the results of the Triangular method and gas sensor methods are comparable in case of Bingipura (3.7 Gg/yr and 1.97 Gg/yr) respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

With the increase of the urban population and increasing amount of waste volume, landfills will continue to evolve. And so will be the potential for Methane generation and its utilization. In this paper estimation of methane available in a closed landfill in 1 year time period was performed using two methods: (A) FOD triangular method and (B) Gas sensor instrument. There are a number of uncertainties associated with the derivation of the data. The uncertainties are, however, very dependent on the quality of the site-specific data on the various input parameters needed in the calculations. Results showed that a sufficient quantity of waste is available in the landfill and maximum energy can be harnessed from it. Thus, there is immense scope for using Methane as a source of energy for the city of Bangalore subject equipped with gas extraction and utilization systems are undertaken. The use of Methane as an energy source will maximize the extraction of useful resources from landfills.


REFERENCES [1] Chanakya, H.N., Ramachandra, T.V. and Shwetmala (2009). Towards a Sustainable

Waste Management System for Bangalore. First International Conference on Solid Waste Management and Exhibition on Municipal Services, Urban Development, Public Works Icon SWM, Kolkata, India.

[2] Chanakya, H.N. and Sharatchandra, H.C. (2005). GHG Footprint of a Developing Country City—Bangalore. ASTRA Technical Report, CST, Bangalore.

[3] Rajabapaiah, P. (1988). Energy from Bangalore Garbage—A Preliminary Study. ASTRA Technical Report. Centre for Application of Science and Technology to Rural Areas, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore.

[4] Ramachandra, T.V. (2011). Integrated Management of Municipal Solid Waste, Environmental Security: Human and Animal Health, Ibdc Publishers. Chapter 30: 465–484.

[5] Ramachandra, T.V. (2009). Management of Municipal Solid Wastes, TERI Press, New Delhi.

[6] Ramachandra, T.V., Shwetmala and Chanakya, H.N. (2012). Interventions in the Management of Urban Solid Waste. International Journal of Environmental Science, 1(3): 259–267.

[7] TIDE (2000). Energy Recovery from Municipal Solid Wastes in Around Bangalore. Technical Report, Malleshwaram, Bangalore.

130

Climate Change Alters the Intensity and Population Dynamics of Insect Pests:

A Case Study with Ferrisia virgata (Cockerell) Infesting Sandalwood and

Pongam in Karnataka R. Sundararaj* and Rashmi R. Shanbhag

Forest and Wood Protection Division, Institute of Wood Science and Technology, Bengaluru, Karnataka


ABSTRACT: Climate change is expected to have an effect on the ecosystems, human health and also phytophagous pests. It is already felt that some pests will be able to invade new areas and become a threat to biodiversity and crop production. Minor pests which are present in small areas and at low densities may spread and reach the status of major pests. Among the insect pests the striped mealy bug, Ferrisia virgata (Cockerell) is a polyphagous and cosmopolitan species, which attacks a wide variety of crops and tree species. In India, it is known to infest important tree species like Santalum album (Sandalwood) and Pongamia pinnata (Pongam). Studies were undertaken on the population dynamics of F. virgata on S. album and P. pinnata in Bangalore, Karnataka. On P. pinnata its infestation starts from February coinciding with the formation of new foliage and flowering, reaching a peak during March and April and then it declines. In 2016, though the similar trend was observed the intensity of infestation was more. Monthly mean maximum temperature exhibited significant positive correlation while morning relative humidity and evening relative humidity exhibited significantly negative correlation with the population while other weather parameters had a less significant effect on its population. In 2013 to 2015, the incidence of F. virgata on S. Album was noticed in the beginning of January which gradually increased to its peak during the first fortnight of April to the last week of May. Then the population slowly declines at the onset of monsoon and by August when proper monsoon a small negligible population was left in the field. But in 2016 its population was continued for a longer period even in July and August and an increase in population was noticed from the beginning of November. This might be due to monsoon failure with less frequency of rainy days which could result in the elimination of limiting factor for F. virgata thus resulting in the extended population and generations.

Keywords: Ferrisia virgata, Pongam, Population Dynamics, Sandalwood

Climate Change Alters the Intensity and Population Dynamics of Insect Pests 131

INTRODUCTION nsects are among the groups of organisms most likely to be affected by climate change as temperature and other climatic factors directly influence their develop-

ment, reproduction, and survival. Another most important factor is unlike other organisms insects have short generation period and high reproductive rates because of which they react strongly as well as quickly to the climate change. Many researchers have shown that climatic parameters have a direct effect on insect population dynamics through the modulation of survival, development rates, fecundity, dispersal and outbreaks along with indirect climatic effects via hosts, competitors and natural enemies have also been shown (Karuppaiah and Sujayanad, 2012). We see the impact of climate change on one of such insect population during the regular monitoring of insect pest of Indian sandalwood and pongam Pongamia pinnata. This paper deals with the changes in population dynamics of the tailed mealybug Ferrisia virgata (Cockerell) infesting sandalwood and Pongam in Karnataka with reference to climate change.


Population dynamics of F. virgata was assessed from January to July in both consecutive years 2013 to 2016 in sandalwood provenance and pongam trees from 2009 to 2010 and in 2016 in Bangalore. The study area located at the measurement of 1258′N 7738′E with an altitude of 1000 m in south India. The area consists of red loamy soil with an acidic pH ranging from 6.3 to 6.5. The semi-arid area with annual precipitation is around 850 mm and mean maximum and minimum temperatures ranging from 36.8C and 12.2C respectively. Ten sandalwood and pongamia trees of 3 to 4 years old were selected at random. From these trees, ten branches of size 30 cm in length were selected in each direction. On each branch, an abundance of F. virgata was recorded. Observations were made at fortnight intervals. The data thus collected were pooled and mean was computed for statistical analysis. Meteorological data viz., monthly mean maximum and minimum temperatures, morning and evening relative humidity and total rainfall were also collected during the experimental period for statistical analysis. Correlation and multiple regression analysis were carried out separately for each factor by following the Fisher and Yates (1938) method.


F. virgata is a major coccid pest of S. album and P. pinnata which was found to be attacking various parts of the trees including leaves, stems and fruits. On P. pinnata F. virgata infestation starts from February coinciding with the formation of new foliage and flowering, reaching a peak during March and April and then it declines. In

I


2016 though the similar trend was observed the intensity of infestation was more (Figure 1). On S. album from 2013 to 2015 incidence of F. virgata was noticed in the beginning of January and gradually increased at its peak in between first fortnight of April to last fortnight of May. Then the population slowly declines at the onset of monsoon and by August when proper monsoon a small negligible population was left in the field. In 2016, though the similar trend was observed, a good level population was continued even in June to July and build up of the population reaching a second peak was observed from October to December (Figure 2).

Fig. 1: Population Dynamics of F. virgata on P. pinnata

Fig. 2: Population Dynamics of Ferrisia virgata on S. album

Climate Change Alters the Intensity and Population Dynamics of Insect Pests 133

Similar trends in the F. virgata population dynamics were observed throughout the world. In Java dry season’s shows higher abundance of F. virgata (Begemann, 1926) whereas in Philippines abundance was observed during February to May (Lapis, 1970). The profusion of F. virgata on Jute in Dacca was seen between July–August where as on garden land fruit infestation was found during winter and early spring (Das et al., 1948). In Sri Lanka, F. virgata was found mostly in the dry zones (Sirisena, 2013). Many Indian workers also reported that F. virgata reaches its peak at the dry season and ceases activity mostly in winter and cooler months (Basu and Chatterjee, 1963; Rawat and Modi, 1969; Mangala et al., 2012).

Correlation of population dynamics with weather factors indicated that monthly mean maximum temperature exhibited significantly positive correlation while morning relative humidity and evening relative humidity exhibited significantly negative correlation with the population while other weather parameters had less significant effect on its population (Table 1) these results are in contradiction with the studies conducted by Ammar et al. (1979) who did not find any significant relationship between population density and relative humidity.

Table 1: Correlation and Regression Equation of the Population of F. virgata with Weather Factors on Sandalwood and Pongamia Pinnata

Weather Factors Correlation Coefficient with Sandalwood

Correlation Coefficient with Pongamia

Maximum Temperature 0.634 0.846

Minimum Temperature 0.616 0.318

Maximum Relative Humidity –0.233 –0.705

Minimum Relative Humidity –0.579 –0.662

Rainfall 0.383 0.004

Regression Equation Y = 25.30 + 2.94 TMax + 2.46 TMin – 0.20 RHI –0.126 RHII – 4.63 RF

Y = –522.56 + 13.07TMax + 0.069 TMin + 1.45 RHI – 0.034 RHII + 0.066 RF

The drastic changes in the population dynamics occurred during 2016 on S. album. Its population was continued for a longer period even in July and August and an increase in population was noticed from the beginning of October. This might be due to monsoon failure with less frequency of rainy days which could result in the elimination of limiting factor for F. virgata thus resulting in the extended population and generations.


REFERENCES [1] Ammar, E.D., Awadallah, K.T. and Rashad, A. (1979). Ecological Studies on Ferrisia

Virgata Ckll. on Acalypha Shrubs in Dokki, Giza Homoptera, Pseudococcidae. Dtsch. Entomol. Z, 26(4/5): 207–213.

[2] Basu, A.C. and Chatterjee, P.B. (1963). Study on the Behaviour and Control of Ferrisia Virgata (Ckll.)—A New Mealy Bug Pest of Betel Vine, Piper Betle Linn. in West Bengal, Zool. Soc. Bengal, 1: 109–114.

[3] Das, G.M., Mukherjee, T.D. and Gupta, N.S. (1948). Biology of the Common Mealybug, Ferrisia virgata Ckll (Coccidae), a Pest on Jute, Corchorus Olitorius L., in Bengal. Proc. India, Indian Agricult, 7: 112–117.

[4] Karuppaiah, V. and Sujayanad, G.K. (2012). Impact of Climate Change on Population Dynamics of Insect Pests. World Journal of Agricultural Sciences, 8(3): 240–246.

[5] Lapis, E.B. (1970). The Biology of the Grey Mealybug, Ferrisia Virgata (Cockerell) (Pseudococcidae, Homoptera). Philippine Entomologist, 1(5): 397–405.

[6] Mangala, N., Sundararaj, R. and Nagaveni, H.C. (2012). Scales and Mealybugs (Coccoidea: Hemiptera) Infesting Pongamia Pinnata (L.) Pierre and Their Population Dynamics in Karnataka, India. Annals of forestry, 20(1): 110–15.

[7] Rawat, R.R. and Modi, B.N. (1969). Studies on Biology of Ferrisia Virgara (Ckll)., (Pseudococcidae Homoptera) in Modhya Pradesh. – Ind. J. Agric. Sci., 3: 274–281.

[8] Sirisena, Ugai, Watson, G.W., Hemachandra, K.S. and Wijayagunasekara, H.N.P. (2013). Mealybugs (Hemiptera: Pseudococcidae) Species on Economically Important Fruit Crops in Sri Lanka. Tropical Agricultural Research, 25(1): 69–82.

135

Butterflies as Indicators of Climate Change—A Baseline Study

in Bengaluru City O.K. Remadevi*, Roshan D. Puranik, S. Sooraj,

K.H. Vinaya Kumar, Saswati Mishra and Ritu Kakkar Centre for Climate Change, Environmental Management and

Policy Research Institute, Bengaluru, Karnataka *E-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT: Climate change affects the diversity and distribution of flora and fauna and even the survival of many species on earth. Butterflies with short life cycle are extremely sensitive to changes in the environment and serve as the best bioindicators of the impact of climate changes. Though there are few studies on the diversity of butterflies from some areas in Bengaluru city, there is no study documenting the season-wise occurrence of butterflies from all the green areas of the city. The objective of our study was to study the diversity of butterflies in major green spaces of Bengaluru city, which has changed from air-conditioned city to a city with heat islands. 30 permanent transects of approximately 500 m in length and 5 m in width were laid across six major green spaces (Gandhi Krishi Vignan Kendra Campus (GKVK), Indian Institute of Science Campus (IISc), Cubbon Park, Lal Bagh, Doresanipalya Forest Campus and Bannerghatta National Park) to survey and observe the diversity and abundance of butterflies. Surveys were conducted in winter, summer and rainy seasons during 2015–2016 and we could record 108 species of butterflies during the study period. The highest number of species (34) was recorded from the family Lycaenidae (Blues). GKVK recorded the highest number of species (79). Monsoon showed the highest butterfly diversity followed by summer and winter. The butterflies were ranked as very common, common, rare and very rare based on the number of individuals sighted for each season. The present study forms the baseline data for any future studies on butterflies as bio-indicators of climate change.

Keywords: Climate Change, Butterflies, Green Spaces, Diversity Indices, Seasons, Baseline Data, Bio-indicators

INTRODUCTION he relationship between diversity of animals and plants and climate has been a well-established fact and changes in species composition and diversity are reported

to be closely linked to changes in climate. Though many organisms reflect the impact T


of climate change, butterflies serve as the best candidates for analyzing the extent of the impact of environmental changes. Studies on their diversity and importance in the ecosystem have been carried out by hundreds of years. They play important roles and contribute to major ecosystem services such as pollination, food source for higher organisms like reptiles and birds, environment indicators of pollution, landscape changes, climate change etc. Insects have an important role to play in conservation assessments because of their dominance in terrestrial ecosystems (Wilson, 1987), their short generation times and their wide range of lifestyles that make them sensitive to changes in the biotic and a biotic environments. Butterflies are useful in studies of community ecology as indicators of ecosystem health. They are dependent on specific host plants for completion of their life cycle. Since the availability and phenology of host plants change due to climate change, the diversity and distribution of butterflies also change and hence they are considered as the potential indicators of environmental and climate change. Parmesan et al. (1999) examined the changes in the northern range boundaries of 52 species of European butterflies over the past 30–100 years. This study indicated a northward shift in 34 species, 1 southward shift and no change in the remaining 17 species. The temperature was the most significant climatic factor explaining differences in butterfly richness and abundance throughout the year in Ecuadorian Amazonia. This reinforces the need for temporal studies to better predict how tropical butterfly populations will respond to predicted climate change (María et al., 2009).

India has a rich butterfly fauna comprising of about 1504 species (Kehimkar, 2008). Western Ghats harbour 334 species of butterflies including 37 endemics (Kunte, 2000). Earlier studies by Yates (1933) and Kathikeyan (1999) revealed the occurrence of about 140 and 153 species of butterflies in Bengaluru. Bengaluru city, also known as the garden city of India because of its unique green spaces and floral distribution is also experiencing the effects of climate change and consequent warming up over the years. The green spaces are either woody areas, garden spaces or vegetated areas. These spaces harbour many butterfly species. It is not clearly known whether the butterfly composition, diversity and abundance have changed over years especially in the last decade, which has really witnessed an increase in atmospheric temperature and overall change in climate. Though butterflies in few green spaces of the city have been recorded by some workers, the list is either incomplete or without proper information on the season of collection. The information is limited to only the diversity of species, but not in relation to specific seasons/green spaces. The current study was conceptualized with a view to studying whether butterflies can serve to indicate the extent of climate change in the Bengaluru city. As there is no detailed data to make immediate comparisons with earlier years, it was planned to collect site wise and season-wise information which can form a baseline data for future so that if similar data are collected later, we can draw comparisons on the effect of climate change on the occurrence/shifting/diversity of butterflies in the city.

Butterflies as Indicators of Climate Change—A Baseline Study in Bengaluru City 137

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Study Area

Fieldwork was carried out in various established green spaces located in and around Bengaluru City during summer, rainy and winter seasons of 2015 to 2016. Bengaluru is located 12°59′N and 77°57′E and at an altitude of 920 m above sea level. The mean annual total rainfall is about 880 mm. The average summer temperature ranges between 18°C and 38°C while the winters witness an average temperature between 12°C and 25°C. The city known as garden city is characterized by green spaces of mini forests, gardens and parks interspersed with heat islands of buildings. 6 green spaces in the city limits (Gandhi Krishi Vignan Kendra (GKVK), (University of Agricultural Science (UAS) Campus), Indian Institute of Science Campus (IISc), Cubbon Park, Lal Bagh, Doresanipalya Forest Campus and Bannerghatta National and Biological Park) were selected for the study.

Gandhi Krishi Vignan Kendra (GKVK) is spread across 1300 acres in size near Hebbal. The area houses different landscapes such as cropland, mixed vegetation and plantations. Four transects were laid in GKVK campus. Indian Institute of Science is spread across 370 acres of land. It is surrounded by the mixed type of vegetation with patches of deciduous and evergreen species spread across its campus. Three transects were laid here. Cubbon Park established in the year 1870 is spread over 100 acres of land initially but later got expanded. Two transects were laid in this area. Lal Bagh Botanical Garden is one of the oldest landmarks of the city which hosts one of the largest tropical plant collections in the country and has a lake within. It hosts about 1854 species of plants and trees. It is about 240 acres in size making it one of the largest green spaces in the city. Four transects were laid here. Doresanipalya Forest Campus was established in an area of about 86 acres of land near Bannerghatta Road in Bangalore city. It is inhabited by diverse plant groups/vegetation and plantation forests of Bamboo and Eucalyptus. Bannerghatta National Park (BNP) was established in the year 1970 and declared as National Park in the year 1974. In 2002, a portion of the Bannerghatta National Park emerged as an independent establishment known as Bannerghatta Biological Park (BBP). BNP covers an area of 260.51 km2 and is about 22 km away from the centre of the city. Only the part of the park which falls under the Bengaluru Metropolitan Region Development Authority (BMRDA) region was selected for the study. The park has two types of vegetation viz; mixed deciduous forest and scrubland. Fifteen transects were laid in BNP. Maps for the study areas with transects were generated for the area using Google Earth (Version 7.1.7.2606) and QGIS (Version 2.16.3) (Figures 1 to 7).


Fig. 1: Map of Bengaluru—The Study Area

Fig. 2: Transects and Map of GKVK Fig. 3: Transects and Map of IISc

Fig. 4: Transects and Map of Cubbon Park Fig. 5: Transects and Map of Lal Bagh


Fig. 6: Transects and Map of Doresanipalya Forest Campus

Fig. 7: Transects and Map of Bannerghatta National Park

Temperature Data

Temperature data of the City from the year 1990 to 2015 was collected from two sources viz. www.waterportal.org and Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Center (KSNDMC).

Fig. 8: Annual Average Temperature Trend of Bangalore City between 1990–2015

Survey Method

Permanent-Line Transects of approximately 500 m length was laid with the help of GARMIN etrex 20x GPS and SUUNTO KB-20 Compass. A transect is a path along which one counts and records occurrences of the species of study. It requires an observer to move along a fixed path and to count occurrences along the path. Fieldwork was carried out periodically two times in a month in each location between 8 a.m. and


2 p.m. where individual species of butterflies and their numbers were recorded within 2.5 m on both sides of the transect line and 5 m above the eye level height. Photographs were taken for identification of butterflies and the unknown was later identified using Issac Kehemkar’s field guide titled, “The Book of Indian Butterflies” and/or the website www.ifoundbutterflies.com.


Changes in Yearly and Seasonal Temperature of Bengaluru City

The average temperature of Bangalore city was collected from the years between 1990 and 2015 and the average annual temperature was plotted against each year. The trend showed that the average temperature has gradually increased over the period of 25 years. As we had no data on butterflies recorded year wise, no correlation could be made based on the temperature increase.

The average monthly temperature during the years 1990 to 2014 was also plotted. It is observed that the winter months are getting warmer year by year compared to that of the other seasons similar to the trends shown in the European study. The temperature data was computed separately for the three seasons, winter, and summer and rainy during 1990 to 2015. There is a significant change in the seasonal temperature in all the years which also showed an increasing trend across years. In the study period, the seasonal variation of butterfly diversity in each of the green space was documented. As there is no data on the seasonal occurrence of butterflies across the green spaces in earlier years, no conclusion could be derived from the change in diversity in relation to hike in seasonal temperature.

Seasonal Occurrence of Butterflies in Bengaluru City Temperature and rainfall plays important role in the life cycle of butterflies and some butterflies are observed only in specific seasons. Season-wise checklist of butterflies in each of the green space studied is given in Tables 2–7. The butterfly diversity was assessed using Shannon’s diversity, evenness indices and Simpson’s richness Index for the seasons of Winter, Summer and Monsoon of 2015–16. The monsoon season showed higher diversity indicating that the climatic conditions are more favourable during monsoon season (Table 1).

Table 1: Diversity Indices in the Different Seasons

Seasons Shannon’s Index Evenness Simpson’s Index Winter 3.171 0.701 0.925 Summer 3.326 0.727 0.950 Monsoon 3.562 0.762 0.951


Butterflies of Bengaluru

A total of 30 transects were laid in 6 selected green areas of Bengaluru city which were used for observations on the butterflies during 2015 to 2016. A total of 108 species of butterflies were recorded during the study period. With reference to the number of species observed, GKVK campus with 79 species is the most diverse. Doresanipalya stood second with 78 species. 69 species were observed in Bannerghatta National Park and 64 in Lal Bagh, 58 in IISc campus and 50 in Cubbon Park. The butterflies were identified and listed as per their family status. The family Lycaenidae recorded the highest number of species of butterflies (34) followed by Nymphalidae (29), Pieridae (20), Hesperiidae (14), Papilionidae (10) and Riodinidae (1). The butterflies observed in our study except for Karwar Swift and Rounded Palm Redeye were all reported in the list given by Yates (1933) and Karthikeyan (1999). Common Grass Yellow, Common Emigrant and Mottled Emigrant were the most abundant species as they had multiple host plants which were easily available in Bangalore city. As per our studies, Common Grass Yellow, Eurema hecabe (Linn.) (Pieridae) is the most common butterfly in Bengaluru city. Common Emigrant, mottled Emigrant and Common four rings were the other most prevalent butterflies.

The checklist was compared family wise to see which family of the butterfly was dominant and whether the trend is similar in all the previous studies. It is found that a number of butterflies recorded is more in earlier studies (Yates, 1933 (140 species)) and (Karthikeyan, 1999 (153 species)). It was observed that the number of species in different families was lesser in our studies. Probably the earlier studies covered wider areas and longer time span to record the diversity. Lycaenidae recorded the highest in all the studies including the present (Figure 9). The definite conclusion is not possible as the area and duration of study are different in each case. But unfortunately, conclusions cannot be drawn as the study area and seasons are not clear for the earlier studies.

Fig. 9: Family Trends of Butterfly Distribution in Bangalore City


Table 2: Checklist and Season-wise Observation of Butterflies in Lal Bagh Botanical Garden

Family Common Name Seasons

Winter Summer Monsoon Hesperiidae Common Banded Awl × × Rice Swift × × Oriental Grass Dart × × Dakhan Small Branded Swift × × Giant Redeye × × Indian Grizzled Skipper × × Grass Demon × × Chestnut Bob × × Papilionidae Common Jay × Dakhan Tailed Jay Common Mormon Lime Butterfly × × Crimson Rose × Pieridae Three Spot Grass Yellow × × Common Grass Yellow Red-line Small Grass Yellow × × Common Emigrant Mottled Emigrant Yellow Orange Tip × × Great Orange Tip × Indian Wanderer Pioneer × × Common Jezebel Psyche × Common Gull × Lycaenidae Apefly × Slate Flash × × Zebra Blue Forget me not × Common Lineblue × Tailless Lineblue × × Dingy Lineblue × ×



Winter Summer Monsoon Common Cerulean × ×

Pea Blue

Lime Blue ×

Gram Blue

Common Hedge Blue × Pale Grass Blue × ×

Lesser Grass Blue

Dark Cerulean × ×

Tiny Grass Blue

Nymphalidae Blue Tiger ×

Dark Blue Tiger × Striped Tiger

Plain Tiger

Common Crow

Double-branded Black Crow ×

Common Bushbrown ×

Common Four-ring

Tailed Palmfly ×

Tawny Coster ×

Common Leopard

Common Sailer

Chestnut-streaked Sailer × × Common Castor

Common Baron ×

Chocolate Pansy

Lemon Pansy

Peacock Pansy × ×

Yellow Pansy × ×

Great Eggfly ×

Danaid Eggfly × ×


Table 3: Checklist and Season-wise Observation of Butterflies in Cubbon Park


Winter Summer Monsoon Hesperiidae Bush Hopper × × Chestnut Bob × × Papilionidae Common Jay × × Dakhan Tailed Jay × Common Mormon × × Lime Butterfly × Pieridae Three Spot Grass Yellow × Common Grass Yellow Common Emigrant Mottled Emigrant White Orange Tip × × Great Orange Tip × × Indian Wanderer Pioneer × Common Jezebel Psyche × Common Gull × × Pieridae Zebra Blue × Common Lineblue × × Tailless Lineblue × × Common Cerulean Pea Blue × × Lime Blue × Gram Blue × Common Hedge Blue Lesser Grass Blue × Tiny Grass Blue × Dark Grass Blue × × South Asian Grass Jewel × × Plains Cupid × Dark Cerulean × ×



Winter Summer Monsoon Nymphalidae Blue Tiger × Dark Blue Tiger × × Striped Tiger × Plain Tiger × × Common Crow Double-branded Black Crow × Common Evening Brown × Common Four-ring Tailed Palmfly × × Common Leopard × × Common Sailer × × Common Castor Common Baron × × Chocolate Pansy Lemon Pansy Great Eggfly × × Danaid Eggfly × × Common Three-ring × ×

Table 4: Checklist and Season-wise Observation of Butterflies in Doresanipalya Forest Campus

Family Common Name Season

Winter Summer Monsoon Hesperiidae Common Banded Awl × Karwar Swift × × Dakhan Small Branded Swift × × Giant Redeye × × Rounded Palm Redeye × × Pale Palm Dart × × Bush Hopper × × Indian Grizzled Skipper Common Branded Redeye × ×



Winter Summer Monsoon Papilionidae Narrow banded blue bottle × × Common Jay Dakhan Tailed Jay × Common Mormon Blue Mormon × Lime Butterfly Common Rose Crimson Rose × Pieridae Three spot Grass Yellow × Common Grass Yellow Spotless Grass Yellow × Red-line small Grass Yellow × Common Emigrant Mottled Emigrant Yellow Orange Tip × × White Orange Tip × × Great Orange Tip × × Indian Wanderer Common Albatross × × Western Striped Albatross × × Pioneer Common Jezebel × Psyche × Common Gull × × Crimson Tip × × Lycaenidae Peacock Royal × × Lankan Large Oakblue × Common Guava Blue × × Oriental Cornelian × × Monkey Puzzle × × Common Pierrot



Winter Summer Monsoon Banded Blue Pierrot × × Slate Flash × × Redspot × × Zebra Blue Forget me not Common Lineblue × Tailless Lineblue × × Common Cerulean Pea Blue × Lime Blue × Gram Blue × Common Hedge Blue × × Pale Grass Blue × Lesser Grass Blue Tiny Grass Blue Dark Grass Blue × Plains Cupid Small Cupid × × Riodinidae Suffused Double-banded Judy × × Nymphalidae Blue Tiger Dark Blue Tiger × Striped Tiger × Plain Tiger Common Crow Double-branded Black Crow Common Evening Brown × Bamboo Treebrown × Common Bushbrown Common Four-ring Tailed Palmfly × × Tawny Coster



Winter Summer Monsoon Anomalous Nawab × × Baronet Common Leopard Common Sailer Chestnut-streaked Sailer × × Angled Castor Common Castor Common Baron × × Chocolate Pansy Lemon Pansy Peacock Pansy × × Blue Pansy × × Great Eggfly × Danaid Eggfly

Table 5: Season-wise Observation of Butterflies in GKVK Campus


Winter Summer Monsoon Hesperiidae Common Banded Awl × Rice Swift × Dakhan Small Branded Swift × Dark Palm Dart × × Bush Hopper × × Indian Grizzled Skipper Papilionidae Narrow Banded Blue Bottle × × Common Jay × Dakhan Tailed Jay Common Mormon Blue Mormon × Lime Butterfly Common Rose × Crimson Rose



Winter Summer Monsoon Pieridae Three Spot Grass Yellow Common Grass Yellow Spotless Grass Yellow × × Red-line Small Grass Yellow Common Emigrant Mottled Emigrant Yellow Orange Tip White Orange Tip × × Great Orange Tip Indian Little Orange Tip × × Indian Wanderer × Pioneer Common Jezebel Psyche × Common Gull × Crimson Tip × × Plain Orange Tip × × Modest Small Salmon Arab × × Indian Sunbeam × Common Guava Blue × × Apefly × × Monkey Puzzle × Common Pierrot Slate Flash Zebra Blue × Forget me not Common Lineblue × × Tailless Lineblue × Pieridae Common Cerulean Pea Blue Lime Blue × × Gram Blue ×



Winter Summer Monsoon Common Hedge Blue × Pale Grass Blue Lesser Grass Blue Tiny Grass Blue Dark Grass Blue × South Asian Grass Jewel × × Plains Cupid × Small Cupid × Dark Cerulean × Pointed Ciliate Blue × × Nymphalidae Blue Tiger × Dark Blue Tiger × × Striped Tiger Plain Tiger Common Crow Double-branded Black Crow × Common Evening Brown × × Common Bush brown × Common Four-ring Tawny Coster Baronet Common Leopard Common Sailer Angled Castor × × Common Castor Common Baron Chocolate Pansy Lemon Pansy Blue Pansy × Yellow Pansy Great Eggfly Danaid Eggfly


Table 6: Checklist and Season-wise Observation of Butterflies in IISc Campus


Winter Summer Monsoon

Hesperiidae Rice Swift × ×

Indian Grizzled Skipper × ×

Chestnut Bob × ×

Papilionidae Narrow Banded Blue Bottle ×

Common Jay

Dakhan Tailed Jay

Common Mormon

Blue Mormon

Lime Butterfly ×

Common Rose × ×

Crimson Rose

Pieridae Three Spot Grass Yellow ×

Common Grass Yellow

Common Emigrant

Mottled Emigrant

Yellow Orange Tip × ×

Great Orange Tip

Indian Wanderer

Common Albatross × ×

Pioneer ×

Common Jezebel

Psyche

Common Gull

Crimson Tip × ×

Lycaenidae Slate Flash ×

Forget me not × ×

Common Lineblue ×

Dingy Lineblue × ×



Winter Summer Monsoon

Common Cerulean

Pea Blue

Lime Blue

Gram Blue ×

Lesser Grass Blue

Tiny Grass Blue ×

Dark Grass Blue × ×

South Asian Grass Jewel ×

Plains Cupid ×

Small Cupid ×

Silver Streak Blue × ×

Nymphalidae Blue Tiger

Dark Blue Tiger ×

Striped Tiger × ×

Common Crow

Double-Branded Black Crow ×

Common Evening Brown

Common Bush brown

Common Four-ring

Tailed Palmfly ×

Common Leopard ×

Common Sailer

Common Castor

Common Baron

Chocolate Pansy

Lemon Pansy

Blue Pansy × ×

Danaid Eggfly ×

Common Three-ring


Table 7: Season-wise Observation of Butterflies in BBP and BNP


Winter Summer Monsoon Hesperiidae Common Banded Awl × × Indian Grizzled Skipper × × Papilionidae Narrow Banded Blue Bottle × × Common Mormon Lime Butterfly Common Rose × Crimson Rose Common Banded Peacock × × Spot Swordtail × × Pieridae Three Spot Grass Yellow Common Grass Yellow Spotless Grass Yellow × Red-line Small Grass Yellow Common Emigrant Mottled Emigrant × Yellow Orange Tip White Orange Tip Great Orange Tip × Indian Little Orange Tip × × Indian Wanderer × Common Albatross × Pioneer Common Gull Crimson Tip × × Plain Orange Tip × × Lycaenidae Indian Sunbeam × × Monkey Puzzle × Common Pierrot Common Silverline × × Zebra Blue × × Forget Me Not × × Common Lineblue × Dingy Lineblue × × Common Cerulean



Winter Summer Monsoon Pea Blue Lime Blue × × Common Hedge Blue Pale Grass Blue Lesser Grass Blue Tiny Grass Blue Dark Grass Blue × South Asian Grass Jewel × × Plains Cupid Small Cupid × × Syrian Babul Blue × × Dark Cerulean × × Nymphalidae Blue Tiger Dark Blue Tiger Striped Tiger Plain Tiger Common Crow Double-branded Black Crow Common Evening Brown × Common Bushbrown Common Four-ring Tawny Coster Baronet Common Leopard Common Sailer × Common Lascar × × Common Castor × Chocolate Pansy Lemon Pansy Blue Pansy Yellow Pansy Danaid Eggfly Common Three-ring × – Present × – Absent


Season-wise Ranking

The study was conducted for three different seasons viz; Winter, Summer and Rainy of 2015– 2016. The tables below (Tables 8–10) summarizes the species which are most common (100+ observations), common (observed 30 to 99 times), rare (observed 6 to 29 times) and very rare (5 or below) for each of the seasons separately during the study period. As far as seasons are concerned, winter witnessed 4 very common species of butterflies, 16 common, 32 rare and 28 very rare. Summer witnessed 3 very common species, 19 common species, 31 rare and 28 very rare species. Rainy season witnessed 6 very common species, 23 common species, 38 rare and 23 very rare species of butterflies. Though there is a clear variation of distribution of species in different seasons, common grass yellow and common emigrant and common crow were very common in all the seasons.

Table 8: Winter Ranking Index

Very Common Common Rare Very Rare Common Grass Yellow

Pea Blue Common Cerulean Blue Pansy

Common Four-ring

Mottled Emigrant Common Hedge Blue Dakhan Small Branded Swift

Common Emigrant

Tiny Grass Blue Pale Grass Blue Indian Grizzled Skipper

Lemon Pansy Common Leopard Common Rose Blue Mormon Three spot Grass

Yellow Gram Blue Spotless Grass Yellow

Common Sailer Striped Tiger Great Orange tip Lesser Grass Blue Plain Tiger Blue Tiger Crimson Rose Dakhan Tailed Jay Dark Blue Tiger Chocolate Pansy Common Jezebel Tailed Palmfly Common Pierrot Baronet Common Banded Awl Common

Bushbrown Great Eggfly GiantRedeye

Common Castor Plains Cupid Lankan Large Oakblue Common Crow Common Mormon Slate Flash Indian Wanderer Karwar Swift Zebra Blue Rounded Palm Redeye Forget me not Oriental Cornelian Tawny Coster Red Pierrot


Very Common Common Rare Very Rare Angled Castor Pale Palm Dart Chestnut Bob Bush Hopper Yellow Pansy Yellow Orange tip TaillessLineblue Indian Sunbeam Pioneer Common Guava Blue Chestnut-streaked

Sailer Apefly

Psyche Monkey Puzzle Rice Swift Banded Blue Pierrot Dark Grass Blue Lime Blue Common Evening

Brown Peacock Pansy

Double-branded Black Crow

Danaid Eggfly Narrow banded blue

bottle

Common Jay Lime Butterfly Red-line small Grass

Yellow

Bamboo Treebrown Common Baron

Table 9: Summer Ranking Index Very Common Common Rare Very Rare

Common Emigrant

Common Grass Yellow

Pale Grass Blue Common Banded Awl

Common Crow Mottled Emigrant Pioneer Blue Mormon Common Bushbrown

Lemon Pansy Common Castor Lime Blue

Plain Tiger Dark Blue Tiger Dark Grass Blue Common Four-ring Blue Tiger Dark Cerulean Pea Blue Forget me not Three Spot Grass

Yellow Crimson Rose Common Sailer Indian Little Orange Tip


Very Common Common Rare Very Rare Spotless Grass

Yellow Common Cerulean Crimson Tip

Chocolate Pansy Lesser Grass Blue Common Guava Blue Zebra Blue Yellow Pansy Small Cupid Lime Butterfly Common Lineblue Common Banded

Peacock Red-line small Grass

Yellow Common Mormon Slate Flash

Yellow Orange tip Great Orange Tip Tailless Lineblue Baronet White Orange Tip South Asian Grass

Jewel Tiny Grass Blue Common Pierrot Great Eggfly Common Leopard Double-branded

Black Crow Common Three-ring

Indian Grizzled Skipper

Dakhan Small Branded Swift

Common Jezebel Dark Palm Dart Tawny Coster Narrow Banded Blue

Bottle Danaid Eggfly Spot Swordtail Plains Cupid Common Albatross Striped Tiger Apefly Common Baron Common Silverline Indian Wanderer Dingy Lineblue Common Hedge Blue Syrian Babul Blue Angled Castor Silverstreak Blue Common Jay Common Evening

Brown Psyche Common Lascar Gram Blue Blue Pansy Dakhan Tailed Jay Common Rose Common Gull Lankan Large

Oakblue


Table 10: Monsoon Ranking Index

Very Common Common Rare Very Rare Common Grass Yellow

Common Cerulean

Three Spot Grass Yellow Common Albatross

Mottled Emigrant Common Leopard Dingy Lineblue Apefly Common Emigrant

Common Mormon Tiny Grass Blue Suffused Double-banded Judy

Red-line Small Grass Yellow

Lemon Pansy Common Jay Peacock Pansy

Common Crow Common Bushbrown

Pale Grass Blue Bush Hopper

Common Four-ring

Common Pierrot Blue Tiger Blue Mormon

Common Gull White Orange Tip Spot Swordtail Common Baron Common Jezebel Slate Flash Common Castor Common Three-ring Blue Pansy Striped Tiger Yellow Orange Tip Grass Demon Lesser Grass Blue Great Orange Tip Common Branded

Redeye Plain Tiger Dark Cerulean Indian Little

Orange Tip Danaid Eggfly Baronet Western Striped

Albatross Lime Butterfly Dark Blue Tiger Plain Orange Tip Double-branded

Black Crow Gram Blue Peacock Royal

Pioneer Crimson Rose Redspot Dakhan Tailed Jay Common Lineblue Oriental Grass Dart Plains Cupid Chestnut Bob Zebra Blue Modest Small

Salmon Arab Dark Grass Blue Tailless Lineblue Common Rose Syrian Babul Blue Indian Wanderer Pointed Ciliate

Blue Pea Blue Bamboo Treebrown Tawny Coster


Very Common Common Rare Very Rare Chocolate Pansy Psyche Common Evening Brown Angled Castor Lime Blue Indian Grizzled Skipper Small Cupid Common Sailer Yellow Pansy Rice Swift Monkey Puzzle Forget Me Not Great Eggfly Tailed Palmfly Common Banded Awl Narrow Banded

Bluebottle

Crimson Tip Indian Sunbeam Common Hedge Blue South Asian Grass Jewel

DISCUSSION

According to Larsen (1987) butterflies are good indicators for the general ecological impact assessments and in continued monitoring of ecological health. Blair and Launer (1997) studied the butterfly diversity and human land use. Bangalore being the IT city has been developing in leaps and bounds with its burgeoning population and fleets of vehicles causing a heat island effect. Luckily as a garden city, some of the major green spaces are kept intact and the flora in these areas is also protected. No study has been carried out so far within the Bangalore city to scientifically document the effects of pollutants, greenhouse gases and warming on butterfly diversity in the city. The warming effects have pervaded into the green areas of the city and it was felt appropriate to study the diversity in the lung spaces of the city so that the effects of climate change can be picturised. Kunte (2000) mentioned about 1501 species of butterflies found in India, of which 321 are Skippers, 107 Swallowtails, 109 Whites


and Yellows, 521 Brush-footed butterflies and 443 Blues. During our study, 108 species of butterflies belonging to six families could be observed from all the study areas. The literature review could show up only two major studies in Bengaluru, one by Yates in 1933 and one by Karthikeyan in 1999. But as their study is only a listing from Bangalore as a whole, no comparison could be made area wise in relation to environmental and climatic changes in the city. Except for two species, other butterflies were prevalent in those years also. This indicates that the floral composition has not changed much.

Studies in other countries show that butterfly communities shift as per the climatic changes. It is already an observed phenomenon in Europe that some of the species have moved up north along the latitudinal gradient because of a warming climate in their original habitats. Parmesan et al. (1999) examined the changes in the northern range boundaries of 52 species of European butterflies over the past 30–100 years. This study indicated a northward shift in 34 species, 1 southward shift and no change in the remaining 17 species. According to Konvicka et al. (2003), during the second half of the 20th century, 12–15 butterfly species ascended in elevation in the Czech Republic. To their knowledge, this was the first evidence that butterflies are ascending to higher elevations in mainland Europe and that the altitudinal pattern found by Hill et al. (2002) for Britain applies to other areas of the continent. Wilson et al. (2005) compared the population level census of butterflies in Sierra de Guadarrama mountain range in Central Spain with the results of a comparable survey carried out in the same region between 1967 and 1973. They estimated that the low elevation boundaries of 16 montane butterfly species had moved uphill by an average of 212 m.

The association of butterflies with distinct seasons is already established by many researchers. In our study, the monsoon season showed higher diversity indicating that the climatic conditions are more favourable during monsoon season. It was also observed that the months of winter and monsoon was getting significantly warmer similar to that of the European model. In the current study, as we do not have data on diversity of butterflies in Bangalore city for the past 25 years, no correlation could be derivedfrom the diversity data and seasonal temperature data. Kunte (1997) studied seasonal patterns in butterfly abundance and species diversity in four tropical habitats in the northern Western Ghats. During unfavourable seasons, i.e. in spring and summer, a low population was maintained. Krishna Kumar (2008) studied ecology and conservation of selected Papilionid butterflies in Indira Gandhi Wildlife Sanctuary, Anamalais, Western Ghats, South India. In the study, the highest density of butterflies was found during North-East monsoon period followed by winter. A study by Sengupta (2014) in the surroundings of upper Neora Valley National Park, a sub-tropical broad leaved hill forest in the eastern Himalayan landscape conducted during 2011 and 2012 recorded 161 species of butterflies which was dominated by the family Nymphalidae


with 70 species followed by 45 of Lycaenidae, 18 by Hesperiidae, 15 by Pieridae and 13 by Papilionidae. The maximum number of butterfly species (158) and the maximum number of individuals (2480) was recorded during the monsoons.

Our primary study on Butterflies was to build a baseline data for the coming years which can be monitored long term. More elaborate information can be gathered to correlate if there is a shift in the diversity of Butterflies in Bangalore city due to climate change and change in host plant patterns distributed in the city. Hence, we chose areas where the local authorities have an inventory of host plants which can be accessed and thereby better outcomes can be drawn. Since Bangalore city is at an all-time expansion, green cover in the outskirts of the city such as Bannerghatta National Park and Doresanipalya Forest, which are natural habitats for many species of butterflies are under constant threat by anthropogenic activity, pollution and climatic changes. The current study is expected to form a baseline data, the collection of which if continued in future years, can help in comparing the data on a spatial and temporal scale to elucidate the probable impacts of climate change on butterfly diversity.

REFERENCES [1] Blair, R.B. and Launer, A.E. (1997). Butterfly Diversity and Human Land Use: Species

Assemblages Along an Urban Grandient. Biological Conservation, 80(1): 113–125. [2] Hill, J.K., Thomas, C.D., Fox, R., Telfer, M.G., Willis, S.G., Asher, J. and Huntley, B.

(2002). Response of Butterflies to Twentieth Century Climate Warming: Implications for Future Ranges. Proceedings of the Royal Society of London B., 269: 2163–2171.

[3] Karthikeyan, S. (1999). The Vertebrates and Butterflies of Bangalore: A Checklist. Publi- shed by World Wild Fund for Nature—India Karnataka State Office, Bangalore, 48 pp.

[4] Kehimkar, I. (2008). The Book of Indian Butterflies. Bombay Natural History Society, Oxford University Press, 497 pp.

[5] Konvicka, M., Maradova, M., Benes, J., Fric, Z. and Kepka, P. (2003). Uphill Shifts in Distribution of Butterflies in the Czech Republic: Effects of Changing Climate Detected on a Regional Scale. Global Ecology and Biogeography, 12: 403–410.

[6] Krishnakumar, N.A., Kumaraguru, K., Thiyagesan and Asokan, S. (2008). Diversity of papilionid butterflies in the Indira Gandhi Wildlife Sanctuary, Western Ghats, Southern India. Tiger Paper, 35: 1–8.

[7] Kunte, K. (1997). Seasonal Patterns in Butterfly Abundance and Species Diversity in Four Tropical Habitats in Northern Western Ghats. Journal of Bioscience, 22(5): 593–603.

[8] Kunte, K. (2000). Butterfly Diversity of Pune City along the Human Impact Gradient. Journal of Ecological Society, 13/14: 40–45.

[9] Larsen, T.B. (1987). The Butterflies of the Nilgiri Mountains of South India (Lepidoptera: Rhopalocera). Journal of Bombay Natural History Society, 84(I): 26–54.

[10] María, Fernanda Checa, Alvaro, Barragán, Joana, Rodríguez and Mary, Christman (2009). Temporal Abundance Patterns of Butterfly Communities (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae) in the Ecuadorian Amazonia and their Relationship with Climate, Annales de la Société


Entomologique de France (N.S.). International Journal of Entomology, 45: 4, 470–486, doi: 10.1080/00379271.2009.10697630.

[11] Parmesan, C., Ryrholm, N., Stefanescu, C., Hill, J.K., Thomas, C.D., Descimon, H., Huntley, B., Kaila, L., Kulberg, J., Tammaru, T., Tennent, W.J., Thomas, J.A. and Warren, M. (1999). Poleward Shift in Geographical Ranges of Butterfly Species Associated with Regional Warming. Nature, 399: 579–583.

[12] Sengupta, P., Banerjee, K.K. and Ghorai, N. (2014). Seasonal Diversity of Butterflies and their Larval Food Plants in the Surroundings of Upper Neora Valley National Park, a Sub-Tropical Broad Leaved Hill Forest in the Eastern Himalayan Landscape, West Bengal, India. Journal of Threatened Taxa, 6(1): 5327–5342.

[13] Wilson, E.O. (1987). The Little Things That Run the World (The Importance and Conservation of Invertebrates), Conservation Biology, 1(4): 344–346.

[14] Wilson, R., Gutierrez, D., Gutierrez, J., Martinez, D., Agudo, R. and Monserrat, V.J. (2005). Changes to the Elevational Limits and Extent of Species Ranges Associated with Climate Change. Ecology Letters, 8: 1138–1146.

[15] Yates, J.A. (1933). Butterflies of Bangalore and Neighbourhood. Journal of Bombay Natural History Society, 36(21): 450–459.

[16] www.ifoundbutterflies.org

163

Conserving Biodiversity Conserves Carbon

A.S. Devakumar*, K. Srinath and Anil Khaple Department of Forestry and Environmental Sciences,

University of Agricultural Sciences, Bengaluru, Karnataka *E-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT: Climate change is the greatest concern of this century and loss of biodiversity is one of the important repercussions of climate change. However, ecosystems with higher biological diversity are proved to be more resilient to climatic aberrations and thus contribute to climate amelioration as well as biodiversity conservation. This study is an attempt to test this hypothesis as well as to assess the sacred groves which are community conserved forest ecosystems for their contribution towards biodiversity conservation, climate resilience and carbon sequestration. Groves existing across diverse climatic conditions recorded 144 tree species, of which 15 were found to be endemic. Shannon’s diversity index of 4.15 indicates a high tree diversity as well as even distribution of tree diversity among the groves spread across the diverse climatic regions. High tree density (360 trees ha–1) with a basal area ranging between 32.8 and 49 m2 ha–1 is an indication of favourable growing conditions as well as the physiological functioning of the groves. A typical inverted “J” pattern of girth class distribution, suggests healthy regeneration in the groves. The carbon sequestered from the above ground standing biomass, soil organic carbon and litter was 139.78, 62.3 and 0.38 tC ha–1 respectively amounts to 196.43 tCha–1 sequestered in the groves, which is the highest so far reported among the forest ecosystems of India. Results indicate the importance of community conserved forest ecosystems in sustaining the biodiversity which imparts functional diversity and in turn resilience to the ecosystem. Such forest ecosystems under changing climate scenarios play a significant role not only in biodiversity conservation but have a critical role in carbon sequestration.

Keywords: Climate Change, Western Ghats, Biodiversity Conservation, Sacred Groves, Climate Resilience

INTRODUCTION

orests are the bastion of human needs. India has a wide range of forest types (Champion and Seth, 1968) and is a hub of biodiversity as it houses four out of 34

global biodiversity hotspots (Meyers et al., 2000). Sacred groves are one of the forest F


ecosystems conserved by local communities out of religious sentiments. The local communities contribute immensely to maintaining sacred groves which in turn provide many ecosystem services such as biodiversity conservation, carbon sequestration, water and soil conservation, aesthetic and recreational services (Bhagwath, 2005). Such ecosystems in the semi-arid tropical countries are of great importance considering the significant land cover changes and associated loss in ecosystem services. The benefits derived from forests primarily depend upon the ecosystem functioning and the susceptibility to various climatic aberrations. Ecosystem functioning is shown to increase with an increase in the biodiversity in the early nineteenth century itself (Odum, 1953). The variations in physiological processes, morphological differences of plant species (Chapin, 1980; Chabot and Mooney, 1985) allow a mixture of species to utilize the resources comprehensively and help in optimizing ecosystem productivity (MacArthur, 1955). Under the current climate change scenario understanding the functional ecosystem, the response has become more relevant to provide robust interpretations and generalizations (Loreau, 2000) that help in addressing climate mitigation. Biodiversity loss is one of the major concerns due to global climate change. Global climate is becoming variable as predicted, due to unabated GHG emissions. Measures through ambitious steps like Kyoto protocol have not yielded the desired results (Victor, 2004), carbon sequestration from forest ecosystems is considered to be a potential means of climate mitigation (Stern, 2006) and many ecosystem services derived from forests. Forest ecosystems have been clearly shown to be one of the important sinks of carbon (Brown and Lugo, 1982; Houghton, 1991; IPCC, 2002). Globally, the combination of reforestation and afforestation could reduce atmospheric CO2 concentrations by as much as 30 ppm in this century (House et al., 2002). The biomass accumulation in the Indian forests has contributed in removing 9.31% of the total annual emissions of the year 2000 (Chhabra et al., 2002). The ecosystems such as sacred groves are of special relevance because of their high biodiversity that imparts a wide range of functional abilities in terms of stress tolerance, carbon assimilation and optimum resource utilization and help in maximizing carbon sequestration. The global climate change can be mitigated by addressing issues at the regional levels. Therefore collating carbon stocks of different ecosystems at regional levels is not only useful in making precise estimations but is also essential for making policy interventions in sustaining these ecosystems and their services. In this background, the present study is an attempt to assess the sacred groves for their contributions towards biodiversity conservation and carbon sequestration.

MATERIALS AND METHODS Kodagu district is situated in “Western Ghats” that extend between 11º 56′–12º 52′ N and 75º 22′–76º 11′ E. It is a hilly district with elevation ranging from 900 to 1,750 m.

Conserving Biodiversity Conserves Carbon 165

It has 46% of the geographical area covered with natural forest and around 16% of the forested area is found outside the reserve forest. Sacred groves are part of the forest outside the reserve forest. There are 1,214 sacred groves covering an area of about 2,550 hectares spread across three talukas of the district (Accavva, 2002).

The annual rainfall of the district ranges from 1500–5000 mm with a dry spell of three to four months. The mean annual temperature is 24°C and the mean temperature of the coldest month is around 20°C and it ranges from 25°C to 31°C during hot months (Pascal and Maher, 1986). The major soil types of the district are mollisols, alfisols, ultisols, inceptisols, entisols and red soil (Korikanthimat et al., 2002). All these climatic and soil variables across the district provide varied conditions suitable for different types of plant species and result in housing a rich biological diversity.

The sacred groves were located on the village maps (scale 1:7920) maintained by Office of Assistant Director of Land Records. The selected groves were grouped into five size classes and from each size class 25% of the groves were sampled (Table 1). Stratified random sampling was adopted for collection of data from the groves.

Table 1: Sacred Groves Distribution in the Kodagu District with Three Talukas and the Stratified Sampling Intensity from Different Size Classes

Size Classes (acre)

Madikeri Taluka Virajpet Taluka Somwarpet Taluka

No. of Groves Present

No. of Groves

Sampled


No. of Groves

Sampled


No. of Groves

Sampled

I 5–10 34 9 50 13 28 7

II 10–15 15 4 27 2 7 2

III 15–20 9 2 16 4 7 2

IV 20–25 5 2 9 2 1 1

V >25 8 5 18 5 11 3

Total 71 22 120 26 54 15

Carbon stock estimation of the sacred groves was collated from three major pools of carbon namely; the Above Ground Biomass (AGB) of standing trees, litter and the soil. For estimating the carbon in the standing trees non-destructive method of biomass estimation was followed. In each of the identified groves, two plots of size 20 m × 20 m were laid. Height and Diameter at Breast Height (DBH) of all the tree species with more than 30 cm girth were measured and identified to species level (Keshavamurthy and Yoganarasimhan, 1989). DBH was measured at 1.37 m from the ground using the measuring tape and the height was measured using digital clinometer (Haglof,


Sweden). In the absence of allometric equations for all the 145 tree species, we used DBH and tree height to estimate the trunk volume (Chaturvedi and Khanna, 1982) and volume were multiplied with the wood density of respective tree species (Philip, 1997) to derive the biomass. To estimate the biomass in the crown, expansion ratio was used (Ajay Kumar and Singh, 2003) and 50% of the biomass thus derived was considered as carbon content (MacDickens, 1997).

For soil carbon estimation samples were drawn using a core sampler from a depth of 30 cm (MacDicken, 1997). Samples were drawn from five groves to represent each size class. Samples were analyzed for organic carbon content as per modified Walkley and Black method (Yeoman and Bremner, 1988).

To assess the standing litter, four plots of 1 × 1 m dimension were laid in each of the sampled groves. Total weight of the litter collected from each plot was weighed in the field using portable electronic field balance. A representative sample was brought to the lab and washed to remove the soil particles, dust and other adhering particles and then dried in the oven at 70ºC. Using the dry weight of litter, necessary corrections were made to the total weight of the litter collected. To assess the structural composition of the sacred groves, trees were stratified into six size classes in the vertical and horizontal axis using height and DBH of the trees. Species diversity was assessed using Shannon’s diversity index (Shannon and Weaver, 1948). Data thus obtained on various parameters were subjected to statistical analysis to determine the significance using MSTAT software.


This study is an attempt to assess the sacred groves and how it can contribute towards sustaining the growth and stability of the system under changing environmental conditions. In order to assess the functional ability of sacred groves at the landscape level, structural attributes, spatial arrangements, size distribution and regeneration abilities of the ecosystem are considered to be good indicators (Pokhriyal et al., 2010; Getachew et al., 2010). These traits reflect the cumulative effects of energy flow, nutrient cycling and environmental perturbations on the ecosystem performance. The basic premise of ecosystem functioning is the interaction between the biological components and their environment (Odum, 1953), where the environment will influence and also get influenced by the biological components of the ecosystem. Therefore the productivity of an ecosystem depends on the efficiency with which the interactions occur. Higher the efficiency, higher will be the productivity. Efficient interaction is noticed when the plant diversity is higher (MacArthur, 1955). Because larger the number of species in an ecosystem, greater would be the possibilities of interactions that enable the selection of extreme traits that would enhance the collective performance (Tilman, 1996).


Biological Diversity

One of the major components that play an important role in the functioning of an ecosystem is tree diversity (Richards, 1996). From the results, it was found that there are 144 tree species recorded in the sacred groves of which 14 were found to be endemic to sacred groves. The tree species richness of the sacred groves is greater than species reported earlier for this region (Pascal and Maher, 1986). Such large tree diversity is primarily due to diverse climatic conditions prevailing over the district located in the hilly terrain of the central Western Ghats (Ram et al., 2004). It receives a mean annual rainfall ranging from 1500 mm in the lower planes to 5000 mm in the higher altitudes (Pascal and Pelissier, 1996). The altitude varied from 900–1757 m. The rainfall, altitude and its associated changes in soil and physiographic factors bring in a lot of climatic variations and resulted in the formation of dry deciduous, moist deciduous, semi-evergreen and evergreen forest types in the district. Since the sacred groves are spread across the district in these diverse forest types it is likely that diverse species of different climatic requirements would thrive in these sacred groves. Further, the religious sentiments towards the sacred groves have secured the groves from anthropogenic disturbance also help substantially in sustaining the diversity over generations. The Shannon’s diversity index has remained high and non-significant across the size classes of the groves (Table 2) suggests that the tree diversity remained same, irrespective of the size of the sacred groves. The co-existence of species is substantially explained through neutral and niche theory (Hubbell 2005; Kraft et al., 2008). Higher diversity is hypothesized to enhance the ecosystem productivity.

Table 2: Tree Distribution, Growth and Carbon Stocks in Major Carbon Pools in the Sacred Groves

Growth Components and Carbon Pools Class-I Class-II Class-III Class-IV Class-V Mean CD@

5%

Shanon’s diversity index 4.27 4.27 4.05 3.87 4.32 4.15 NS

Tree density (tree/ha) 305 299 431 360 405 360 57.43

Basal area (m2 ha–1) 32.80 33.30 42.90 49.00 40.60 39.70 08.24

AGB (t ha–1) 228.00 252.00 317.00 301.40 299.40 279.56 76.74

C-content of AGB (tha–1) 114.00 126.00 158.50 150.70 149.70 139.78 38.36

C-content of Litter (tCha–1) 0.29 0.33 0.28 0.35 0.65 0.38 0.038

Soil Organic Carbon content (tCha–1)

113 (2.5)

124 (2.8)

123 (2.7)

139 (3.1)

126 (2.8)

125 (2.8)

NS

Total Carbon (tCha–1) 170.29 189.05 219.26 190.49 213.07 196.43 NS

Foot Note: Values given in the parenthesis are the carbon content expressed in percent.


Because larger the number of species, greater would be the interactions of physiological, morphological traits that will help in enhancing the efficiency of ecosystem functioning in subjecting the resources to more efficient use (Loreau, 2000). More alternate pathways for the flow of energy and internal cycling of nutrients available among the diverse tree species are reasons for enhancing the resilience of the system.

Structural Composition of Sacred Groves

Most important ecosystem function that provides the primary energy required for life is photosynthesis. This function of an ecosystem depends on the efficiency with which the solar energy is utilized. In this context, the composition and structure of the ecosystem is a key factor according to niche theory (Kraft et al., 2008). Accordingly, a strong growth-strategic differentiation at varying light levels has been reported across the species (Rüger et al., 2011). Thus in order to understand the structural composition and its influence on the functional ability of sacred groves the spatial arrangement of trees was analyzed. Results showed that the number of trees in the lowest (1–5 m) and highest height classes (>25 m) remained least among all the size classes of the groves and the highest number of trees were found in the height classes ranging between 5.1 to 20 m (Figure 2). The mean height distribution of trees in all the size classes of the sacred groves also had a similar trend in which one and five percent of the total population was found in lowest and highest height classes respectively, followed by 28, 30, 21 and 13 percent of the population in the other height classes (Figure 2). This suggests that the canopy species, as well as the shade tolerant species, are less in number compared to those that need moderate light. Such an arrangement of species depending on their light saturations would optimize the light use efficiency of the ecosystem (Laurance and Bierregaard, 1997) resulting in good growth. This was evident from many of the growth attributes such as biomass accumulation, girth increment, distribution, tree density and regeneration as described.

The highest numbers of trees were seen among the lowest diameter class and the number decreased with increased DBH (Figure 3). The mean distribution pattern of number of trees of different diameter classes was no different wherein, about 48 percent of the total population was found in the lowest DBH class (0.31–0.60 m) and decreased in the subsequent diameter classes continuously to as low as seven percent in the highest diameter class (Figure 3). This has resulted in classical “inverted J” pattern of distribution of diameter classes of trees which is conventionally considered to be a reflection of normal growing conditions of an uneven-aged forest ecosystem (Smith et al., 1996). The subtle climatic variations seen in the vertical and horizontal profiles of the ecosystem provide variable climatic conditions congenial for diverse species, enabling many species to co-exist (Kraft et al., 2008).


When the conditions are favourable for growth it should also be reflected in the tree population. Tree density in the groves varied from 299 to 431 tree/ha across the size class of the groves, with an average 360 tree ha–1 (Table 2). Tree density recorded in a deciduous forest type of the district is as low as 67 trees ha–1and highest recorded is 270 tree ha–1 in semi-evergreen forest type (Devakumar, 2009). In a managed ecosystem of the district viz; coffee plantation (coffee is grown under the partial shade of trees in India) shade tree density is reported to vary from 370 tree ha–1 in evergreen vegetation type to 361 trees ha–1 in moist deciduous vegetation type of the district (Manjunath, 2009). Thus it is evident that the tree density of sacred groves is on par with a managed ecosystem and much higher than a natural forest ecosystem, reiterating the fact that the growing conditions prevalent in the sacred groves are congenial for growth.

Carbon Sequestration

The biomass and carbon stocked in the standing trees ranged from 228–316 tha–1 and 114–158 tha–1 respectively, with significant differences among the size classes. The average amount of carbon stored is 139.78 tones ha–1 (Table 2). Biomass accumulation in evergreen, semi-evergreen and deciduous forests in India is 183.06, 181.73 and 105.2 tones ha–1 respectively (Haripriya and Ravindranath, 2003). In tropical dry evergreen forests of peninsular India, it ranged from 36.69 to 170.02 tones ha–1 (Mani and Parthasarathy, 2007), while that of the tropical rainforest of Uttara Kannada district of Western Ghats ranged from 92 to 268.49 tha–1 (Bhat et al., 2003). Average biomass accumulation of Indian forests is 135.6 tha–1 (Pandey, 2002). Highest biomass of 397.7 tha–1 is reported from the Amazonian forests (Henrique and William, 2002). These comparisons suggest that the sacred groves have highest carbon stock in the standing trees among the forest ecosystems of India. Such a high productivity seen in the sacred groves can be largely attributed to the high species diversity as well as its distribution in the groves. Because according to Tilman (1997) higher diversity can increase productivity as the probability of having highly productive species presence will increase with plant diversity (competition effect) and complementary resource use by different species would also be higher with plant diversity.

From the size class distribution and their respective biomass contribution, it was found that the number of individuals present in different girth classes decreased with the increase in girth, while the biomass contribution from these respective size classes was exactly the opposite (Figure 2). This is a general trend seen in most mixed forest ecosystems (Brown and Lugo, 1982) where the largest contribution towards biomass comes from old growth (larger trees) whose number invariably remains less.

The quantum of carbon present in the standing litter is in the range of 0.28 to 0.65 tones ha–1 (Table 2), which is relatively less compared to earlier reports for Western Ghats (Swamy et al., 2004; Arul and Parthasarathy 2005) and also considering the higher tree


density of the groves. These are the average values across the groves which are distributed across the varying climatic conditions with a composition of both evergreen and deciduous types. Therefore litterfall and its mineralization can be both seasonal (in deciduous species) as well as continuous (in evergreen species) among the groves (Madritch and Cardinale 2007). These factors must have been the reasons. Since this was not a major focus of this study, more detailed investigations are necessary.

Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) content of the groves varied from 56(1.25%) to 69.45(1.55%) tones ha–1 across the groves with an average of 62.45(1.4%) tones ha–1

(Table 2). The average soil carbon content of the Kodagu district is reported to be in the range of 0.5 to 0.75% (ICRISAT, 2011). The values reported for sacred groves were found to be higher, compared to the dry deciduous forest (42 tones ha–1) and semi-evergreen forests (63.12 tones ha–1) of the Western Ghats (Reddy and Devakumar, 2012). Another major land use system of the region is coffee plantations and SOC values reported are in the range of 56 t/ha (Coffea arabica) to 33.6 t/ha (Coffea robusta) (Korikanthimath et al., 2002) which is less than that of sacred groves. Higher SOC in the groves can be ascribed to high tree density and diversity and is also an indication of low anthropogenic interference. This is an indication of favourable soil conditions in the groves which is essential for normal growth and development of the trees.

The total carbon sequestered from all the three major pools varied from 170 to 213 tones ha–1 with a mean of 196 tones ha–1. This is considerably higher among all the forest ecosystems of the Western Ghats reported. Largest contribution among the three pools come from AGB followed by soil carbon and litter reiterate the fact that the growing conditions in the groves are favourable and stable.

Tree growth is a function of ability with which solar energy is utilized in assimilating atmospheric carbon to produce carbohydrates, which are building blocks of growth. This process needs to be complemented with essential mineral nutrients. In a closed ecosystem, the nutrient turnover is shown to be generally not limiting. If so, it becomes evident in the growth and other processes of the ecosystems (Smith, 1996; Vitousek and Harper, 1993). The composition of groves (Figures 2 and 3) and growth (Tables 1 and 2) as a cumulative response of the system, it was evident that the health of the sacred groves was good or not limited by the nutrients and therefore we presume that nutrients circulated reasonably well like a closed forest ecosystem in the sacred groves. The contribution of local communities has a significant role in sustaining this healthy environment. Moisture is another major growth limiting factor which was found to be not affecting the growth. Kodagu district receives an annual rainfall ranging from 1500 to 5000 mm and is recognized to be a high rainfall region (Pascal and Maher, 1986). The rainfall distribution is also fairly well spread as this region receives both South-West and North-East monsoons (Attri and Thyagi, 2010) with only two to three months


of dry spells. This suggests that moisture may not be a constraint in the growth of sacred groves.

From the above observations, it is evident that the groves are functionally diverse due to higher tree diversity that facilitates efficient utilization of resources and in turn sustaining a balanced interaction between the environment and the biological entities of the sacred groves. Higher productivity of the groves among the similar natural ecosystems in the region was because of the resilience of the sacred groves which is perhaps lacking in less diverse systems.

Fig. 1: Height Class Distribution of Trees in the Different Size Class of the Sacred

Groves (Values indicated above the bars in the graph of average tree height is the percentage of tree population)

Average


Fig. 2: Girth Class (DBH) Distribution of Trees among the Size Class of the Sacred

Groves (The values indicated above the bars in the graph depicting the average DBH is the percentage)

Fig. 3: Size Class Distribution of Tree Population in the Sacred Groves and

the Amount of Carbon Stored in the Respective Girth Classes


REFERENCES [1] Accavva (2002). Preservation of Devrakadu in Kodagu District—A Resource Economic

Study Report Submitted to NATP, ICAR, 1–55 pp. [2] Ajaykumar, L. and Singh, P.P. (2003). Economic Worth of Carbon Stored in Above

Ground Biomass of India’s Forests. Indian Forester, 129: 874–880. [3] Arul, P. and Parthasarathy (2005). Litter Production in Tropical Dry Evergreen Forests of

South India in Relation to Season, Plant Life-Forms and Physiognomic Groups. Current Science India, 88(8): 1255–1262.

[4] Attri, S.D. and Thyagi, A. (2010). Climate Profile of India-India Meteorological Depart- ment. http://www.imd.gov.in/doc/climate_profile.pdf.

[5] Bhat, D.M., Murali, K.S. and Ravindranath, N.H. (2003). Carbon Stock Dynamics in the Tropical Rain Forests of the Uttar Kannada District, Western Ghats, India. International Journal of Environment Pollution, 19: 139–149.

[6] Brown, S. and Lugo, A.E. (1982). The Storage and Production of Organic Matter in Tropical Forests and Their Role in the Global Carbon Cycle. Biotropica, 14: 161–187.

[7] Brown, S. (1997). Estimating Biomass and Biomass Change of Tropical Forests. A Primer. FAO Forestry Paper 134. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome, Italy.

[8] Chabot, B.F. and Mooney, H.A. (1985). Physiological Ecology of North American Communities. Chapman and Hall, New York London, 1–15 pp.

[9] Champion, H.G. and Seth, S.K. (1968). A Revised Survey of the Forest Types of India. Manager of Publications, Delhi, 1968.

[10] Chapin, F.S. (1980). The Mineral Nutrition of Wild Plants. Annual Review of Ecological Systems, 11: 233–260.

[11] Chaturvedi, A.N. and Khanna, L.S., Forest Classification (1982). In: Forest Mensuration Chaturvedi, A.N. and Khanna, L.S. (eds) Dehra Dun: International Book Distributors, 98–99 pp.

[12] Chhabra, A., Palria, S. and Dadhwal, V.K. (2002). Growing Stock Based Forest Biomass Estimate for India. Biomass Bioenergy, 22: 187–194.

[13] Devakumar, A.S. (2009). Study of Carbon Dynamics in the Natural Forests of Kodagu District. Report Submitted to Department of Science and Technology, Atmospheric Sciences Division, Government of India, New Delhi.

[14] Getachew, T., Demel, T., Masresha, F. and Erwin, B. (2010). Regeneration of Seven Indigenous Tree Species in a Dry Afromontane Forest, Southern Ethiopia. Flora, 205: 135–143.

[15] Grime, J.P. (1979). Plant Strategies and Vegetation Process. John Wiley, Chichister, England.

[16] Haripriya, G.S. and Ravindranath (2003). Carbon Budget of the Indian Forest Ecosystem. Climatic Change, 56: 291–319.

[17] Henrique, E.M.N. and William, F.L. (2002). Total Above Ground Biomass in Central Amazonian Rainforests: A Landscape—Scale Study. Forest Ecology and Management, 168: 311–321.


[18] Houghton, R.A. (1991). Tropical Deforestation and Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide. Climate Change, 19(1/2): 99–118.

[19] House, J.I., Prentice, I.C. and Le Quere, C. (2002). Maximum Impacts of Future Reforestation or Deforestation on Atmospheric CO2. Global Change Biology, 8: 1047–1052.

[20] Hubbell, S. (2005). Neutral Theory in Community Ecology and the Hypothesis of Functional Equivalence. Functional Ecology, 19: 166–172.

[21] ICRISAT (2011). Soil Fertility Atlas of Karnataka-ICRISAT. http://www.icrisat.org/what-we-do/agro-ecosystems/Bhoo-Chetana/pdfs/596_2011.pdf

[22] IPCC (2002). Climate Change and Biodiversity, Technical Paper V of Inter Governmental Panel on Climate Change, 1–77 pp.

[23] Keshavamurthy, R. and Yoganarasimhan, S.N. (1989). Flora of Coorg. Vimsat Publishers, Bangalore.

[24] Korikanthimath, V.S., Gaddi, A.V., AnkeGowda, S.J. and Govardhan, R. (2002). Soil Fertility Evaluation in Plantation Belt of Kodagu District, Karnataka. Journal of Medicinal and Aromatic Plant Sciences, 24: 401–409.

[25] Kraft, N.J.B., Valencia, R. and Ackerly, D.D. (2008). Functional Traits and Niche-Based Tree Community Assembly in an Amazonian Forest. Science, 322: 580–582.

[26] Laurance, W.F. and Bierregaard, R.O. (1997). Tropical Forest Remnants: Ecology, Management, and Conservation of Fragmented Communities. University of Chicago Press, USA.

[27] Loreau, M. (2000). Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning: Recent Theoretical Advances. Oikos, 91: 3–17. doi: 10.1034/j.1600-0706.2000.910101.x.

[28] MacArthur, R.H. (1955). Fluctuations of Animal Populations and a Measure of Community Stability. Ecology, 36: 533–536.

[29] MacDickens, K.G. (1997). A Guide to Monitoring Carbon Storage in Forestry and Agroforestry; pp. 1–87. Forest Carbon Monitoring Program. Winrock International Institute Publication for Agriculture Development, Washington D.C.

[30] Madritch, M.D. and Cardinale, B.J. (2007). Impacts of Tree Species Diversity on Leaf Litter Decomposition in Northern Temperate Forests of Wisconsin, USA: A Multi-Site Experiment along a Latitudinal Gradient. Plant and Soil, 292: 147–159.

[31] Mani, S. and Parthasarthy, N. (2007). Above Ground Biomass Estimation in Ten Tropical Dry Evergreen Forest Sites of Peninsular India. Biomass and Bioenergy,31: 284–290.

[32] Manjunatha, M. (2009). Assessment of Carbon Sequestration in Coffee Based Agro- forestry System. Dessertation, University of Agricultural Sciences, Bangalore.

[33] Mayers, N., Mittermeier, R.A., Mittrmeier, C.G., DaFanseca, G.A.B. and Kent, J. (2000). Biodiversity Hotspot for Conservation Priorities. Nature, 403: 853–858.

[34] Odum, E.P. (1953). Fundamentals of Ecology, Saunders, Philadelphia. [35] Pandey, D.N. (2002). Global Climate Change and Carbon Management in Multi

Functional Forests. Current Science, 83: 593–602. [36] Pascal, J.P. and Maher, V.M. (1986). Phytochorology of Kodagu (Coorg) District,

Karnataka. Journal of Bombay Natural History Society, 83: 43–56.


[37] Pascal, J.P. and Pelissier, R. (1996). Structure and Floristic Composition of a Tropical Evergreen Forest in South-West India. Journal of Tropical Ecology, 12: 191–214.

[38] Philip, M.F. (1997). Wood Density for Estimating Forest Biomass in Brazilian Amazonia, Forest Ecology and Management, 90: 59–87.

[39] Pokhriyal, P., Uniyal, P., Chauhan, D.S. and Todaria, N.P. (2010). Regeneration Status of Tree Species in Forest of Phakot and Pathri Rao Watersheds in Garhwal Himalaya. Curr. Sci. India, 98: 171–174.

[40] Ram, J., Kumar, A. and Bhatt, J. (2004). Plant Diversity in Six Forest Types of Uttaranchal, Central Himalaya, India. Current Science, 86: 975–978.

[41] Reddy, E., Devakumar, A.S., Charankumar, M.E. and Madhusudhana, M.K. (2012). Assessment of Nutrient Turnover and Soil Fertility of Natural Forests of Central Weshern Ghats. International Journal of Science and Nature, 3(1): 162–166.

[42] Richards, P.W. (1996). The Tropical Rain Forest: An Ecological Study. Cambridge University Press, London, 574–575 pp.

[43] Rüger, N., Berger, U., Hubbell, S.P., Vieilledent, G. and Condit, R. (2011). Growth Strategies of Tropical Tree Species: Disentangling Light and Size Effects. PLOS A: doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0025330.

[44] Shannon, C.E. and Weaver, W. (1948). A Mathematical Theory of Communication. The Bell System Technical Journal, 27: 379–656.

[45] Smith, D.M., Larson, B.C., Mathew, J.K. and Ashton, P.M.S. (1996). Stand Dynamics, Pp. 20–40 in Smith, D.M., Larson, B.C., Mathew, J.K. and Ashton, P.M.S. (Eds.). The Practices of Silviculture. John Wiley and Sons. INC, New York.

[46] Stern, N. (2006). Stern Review: The Economics of Climate Change. HM Treasury, Cambridge University Press, UK.

[47] Swamy, S.L., Kushwaha, S.K. and Puri, S. (2004). Tree Growth, Biomass, Allometry and Nutrient Distribution in Gmelinaarborea Stands Grown in Red Lateritic Soils of Central India, Biomass and Bioenergy, 26: 305–317.

[48] Tilman, D. (1997). Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning. Nature Services and Societal Dependence on Natural Ecosystems, Island Press, Washington, In G. Daily (Ed.). DC. 93–112 pp.

[49] Victor, D.G. (2004). The Collapse of Kyoto Protocol and the Struggle to Slow Global Warming. Princeton University Press.

[50] Vitousek, P.M. and Hooper, D.U. (1993). Biological Diversity and Terrestrial Ecosystem Biogeochemistry, pp. 3–14 In Shulze E.D. and Mooney HA. (Eds.) Biodiversity and Ecosystem Functioning. Springer-Verlag, Berlin Germany.

[51] Yeoman, J.C. and Bremner, J.M. (1988). A Rapid and Precise Method for Routine Determination of Organic Carbon in Soil. Communications in Soil Science and Plant Analysis, 19(13): 1467–1476.

176

A Quantitative Study on Adaptability of Indigenous Cattle of Wayanad,

Kerala on Climate Change Using Heat Tolerance Test Siddhartha Savale* and M. Muhammed Asif

College of Veterinary and Animal Sciences, Pookode Kerala Veterinary and Animal Sciences University, Wayanad, Kerala


ABSTRACT: Heat tolerance is the ability of the animals to withstand heat when all other factors are constant. Physical responses such as Respiration rate, heart rate and rectal temperature are reliable indices for recording the heat tolerance of the animals. Heat stress will likely become more prevalent over the next few decades as predicted changes in climate could cause increases in severity of weather events and warmer average temperatures. Heat stress results from a negative balance between the net amount of energy flowing from the animal to its surrounding environment, and the amount of heat energy produced and absorbed by the animal.

An animal that is heat tolerant has the ability to maintain a normal body temperature under high ambient temperatures and Heat tolerance indices are widely used to evaluate animals for their tolerance capacity. The Dairy Search Index (DSI) is one of the major heat tolerant test and rectal temperature and respiration rate and pulse rate taken under consideration by giving appropriate weightage to each parameter (Thomas et al., 1973). This study recorded these parameters twice daily at 8 a.m. and 2 p.m. and values were used for analysis of Dairy search index in native Wayanadan dwarf cows. This breed has played once a pivotal role in the sustenance of dairy farmers of the district is now left only with 300 in numbers. Mainly the tribes of Thirunelly and Muthanga regions of the district are rearing it. It was found that the Wayanadan dwarf cows had DSI of 1.01, as per DSI standard which indicates that animals have minimal stress during hot climatic conditions. In this era of varying climatic conditions, we should not discard the truth that climatic severities reduce productivity in exotic cattle, but not in native Indian breeds.

Keywords: Heat Tolerance, Heat Stress, Dairy Search Index, Wayanadan Dwarf Cows

A Quantitative Study on Adaptability of Indigenous Cattle of Wayanad… 177

INTRODUCTION

ivestock genetic resources are of economic, scientific and cultural interest to humankind in terms of food and agricultural production for the present as well as

future generations. These are particularly vital to subsistence and economic development in developing countries as they continually provide essential food products, contribute draught power and manure for crop production and generate income as well as employment for most of the rural population. They also produce non-food items such as hides, skins, wool, traction power and fuel (from dung). In addition, livestock contributes towards environmental sustainability in well balanced mixed farming systems. The current pattern of consumerist society had led to the promotion of high milk yielding exotic crossbred milch animals. With the advantage in milk yield, these exotic crossbred animals are prone to the climatic variations and have less disease resistance. The exotic crossbred milch animals require high-quality feed, medicines resulting in the animal rearing venture a challenging one. On the other hand, the indigenous cattle breeds are highly disease resistant and can adapt to the climatic vagaries. These animals are a reservoir of gene pool compared to the crossbreds and their management is cost-effective.

Climate change is one of the major threats to the survival of various species, ecosystems and the sustainability of livestock production systems across the world, especially in tropical and temperate countries (Das et al., 2016). The greenhouse gas emission from agriculture sector is the most important factor for global warming, and livestock sector share 18% of total greenhouse gas emissions. The productive and reproductive performances of cattle and buffaloes are likely to be aggravated due to climate change and global warming (Dash et al., 2016). The heat stress is considered as one of the main factors affecting reproductive performances in dairy cattle. Heat stress is a condition caused by an animal’s inability to dissipate body heat effectively to maintain normal body temperature, a vital process known as thermoregulation. Heat tolerance is the ability of the animals to withstand heat when all other factors are constant. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reported that temperature of the earth has been increased by 0.2°C per decade and also predicted that the global average surface temperature would be increased to 1.4–5.8°C by 2100.

The native Wayanad dwarf cow seems the next lined up to face the threat of extinction among indigenous cattle varieties. A few decades ago, the cattle were common in the district of Wayanad, Kerala, but its population has dwindled to around 200 owing to the aggressive crossbreeding policies followed in the state by using exotic germplasm on local female cattle. The cow slightly taller than the Kasaragod dwarf variety is known for its high resistance to weather vagaries, tremendous strength, low cost of maintenance and high-fat content of milk. The few Wayanad dwarf cows that are there can be found in the tribal hamlets. Straight horns, black with brownish skin,

L


and nearly one-meter height are the physical features of the cow. The variety was favourite among both tribes and others as these hoofed creatures could negotiable steep slopes and difficult terrains with utmost ease. The traditional pattern of grazing on fields is enough for them to be healthy and no cattle feed is required. The animal is of importance in the ayurvedic stream of medicines where its milk and urine are considered to be of medicinal value. These small-horned animals are known for their high endurance and adaptability and give enough milk to support a family.


The present study was conducted on seven Wayanad dwarf (Figure 1) cattle for a period of seven days in Wayanad district. Rectal temperature and respiration rate and pulse rate were recorded twice daily at 8 a.m. and 2 p.m.

Fig. 1: Wayanadan Dwarf Cattle

The different heat tolerance indices that can be applied are as follows:

Iberia Heat Tolerance Test (HTC)

Gaalaa’s heat tolerance test

Benezra’s Coefficient of Adaptability (BCA)

Dairy Search Index (DSI) (Singh et al., 2013)

Dairy Search Index (DSI) was applied to measure the heat tolerance in the present study.

Dairy Search Index (DSI) formula 0.5 X1 0.3 Y1 0.2 Z1DSI = + +

X Y Z

A Quantitative Study on Adaptability of Indigenous Cattle of Wayanad… 179

Where X1, Y1 and Z1 are rectal temperature, pulse rate and respiration rate after exposure and X, Y and Z the same parameters before exposure respectively.

Interpretation: If the calculated value is nearer to one than the animals is more heat tolerant than the animal are deviating more from one.


The physiological parameters (Table 1) recorded were within the normal range and are comparable with results of Lype et al., 2016. The overall average forenoon and afternoon rectal temperatures recorded were 100.82ºC ± 0.04 and 101.79ºC ± 0.04 with ranges of 98 to 103ºC and 99.8 to 103.8ºC, respectively. The overall mean pulse per minute in the forenoon and afternoon 62.9 ± 0.4 and 68.78 ± 0.4 with ranges of 46 to 85 and 48 to 90, respectively. All categories showed an increase in respiration rate per minute in the afternoons compared to forenoons. The overall average forenoon and afternoon respiration rate recorded were 20.93 ± 0.2 and 23.89 ± 0.2 with ranges of 12 to 32 and 16 to 36 respectively. (Iype et al., 2016)

Table 1: Physiological Parameters of Wayanadan Dwarf Cattle

Parameters 8.00 a.m. 2.00 p.m. Temperature 100.7 ± 0.2 103.4 ± 0.23 Respiratory rate 16 ± 0.13 22 ± 0.14 Pulse rate 76 ± 0.15 84 ± 0.4

The above results were further subjected to analyzing the heat tolerance by using the Dairy Search Index (DSI).

Dairy Search Index (DSI) for indigenous cattle was found to be 1.01, as per DSI standard which indicates that animals have minimal stress during hot climatic conditions. These cattle can be adapted to cope up with the adverse climatic conditions and to maintain sustainability in livestock production system.

CONCLUSION

Looking at the drawbacks of the present crossbreeding programme and the importance of indigenous breeds to all aspects of the life of rural people, a proper breeding policy should be evolved. By the sustainable utilisation of the genetic capability of the native of tropical cattle breeds, we can ensure the sustainability of the livestock production for future. There is an urgent need for more genetic and grass root level studies on the potential of the native breeds to resist the climate change and global warming. The Paris Agreement, 2016 regarding the global climate change focus on the sustainable


utilisation of the local resources to cope with the climate change and our nation also pledged to it. In this aspect, the conservation indigenous breeds and utilisation of its genetic potential is a matter of national importance.

REFERENCES [1] Das, R., Sailo, L., Verma, N., Bharti, P., Saikia, J., Imtiwati and Kumar, R. (2016). Impact

of Heat Stress on Health and Performance of Dairy Animals: A Review—Veterinary World, 9(3): 260–268.

[2] Dash, S., Chakravarty, A.K., Avtar, S., Upadhyay, A., Manvendra, S. and Saleem, Y. (2016). Effect of Heat Stress on Reproductive Performances of Dairy Cattle and Buf- faloes: A Review. Veterinary World, EISSN: 2231–0916.

[3] Lype, S., Venkatachalapathy, T., Santosh, P.K. and Behera, A. (2016). Characterization of Kasargod Cattle of Kerala. IOSR J. of Agri. and Vet. Sci. (IOSR-JAVS), 9(11).

[4] Singh, S.V., Soren, S., Beenam, Singh, A.K. and Kumar, S. (2014). Heat Tolerance Indices for Cattle and Buffalo. Climate Resilient Livestock and Production System.

181

Increased Public Transport Usage: Perception Contra Realities in Access

and Usage Comparing Norway and India Tanu Priya Uteng1 and Mridula Sahay2

1Department of Mobility and Organisation, Institute of Transport Economics (TOI), Gaustadalléen 21, NO 0349 Oslo, Norway

2Department of Mathematics, Ganga Devi Mahila Mahavidyalaya, Magadh University, Kankarbagh, Patna, India

1E-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT: Motorised transport is one of the major sources of pollution in urban areas. Though both freight and personal transport contribute to the increasing pollution levels, the sheer volume of personal transport and its high dependence on car-based mobility has exacerbated the problem multifold times. This issue has gained importance in the developing countries as well but it has not been studied in detail with respect to the challenges posed by climate change. This paper proposes to examine the links between travel behaviour, transport planning and climate changes and further, how this topic can be studied and assimilated in future planning of urban areas.

Keywords: Public Transport, Access, Usage, Perceptions, Comparison

INTRODUCTION

he transport sector is one of the most polluting sectors and a major role player, both as producer and consumer, in the climate change debate. Country-level

assessments conducted by the Ministry of Environment and Forests, Govt. of India, puts the transport sector to be the second largest contributor (after electricity) to GHG emissions in India (INCAA, 2007). Since the economic liberalisation of 1991, the country’s transport sector witnessed an unprecedented growth in the tripartite interlocking of demands for mobility (both personal and freight transport), associated energy use and greenhouse gas emissions. And despite all climate change debates in place, India’s economic development ambitions necessitates an upscaling of the transport sector. This upscaling can either happen in a sustainable, climate-friendly manner or follow the current path of increasing automobility, dependence on fossil fuel and paving path for a potential disaster. The emergency situation, owing to alarmingly

T


high pollution levels, declared in Delhi in November 2016 validates such grim future scenarios.

TRAVEL BEHAVIOUR: PERCEPTIONS CONTRA REALITIES

In a car-dominated society (Norway) or shifting towards a car-based urban society (India), tilting the modal split towards public transport is a tricky task. It can, however, be achieved by studying and aligning the future public transport planning towards addressing these two issues:

Habitual travel choice (in terms of distribution in time-space, underpinnings behind the choice, preferences, etc.).

Effects of “perception” vs. “reality” on mode choice (to collate information on how to channel the populist ideas on public transport usage).

In light of climate change imperative, reducing car use has become a central topic in transport policy and research in the developed world. Studies have shown that inducing mode change requires both making the car less attractive and increasing travellers’ awareness and knowledge of alternative modes of transport (e.g. Handy et al., 2005). One of the main barriers identified to the use of alternative modes is car drivers’ distorted perceptions of the quality of these alternative modes, having considerable influence on their choice-sets. Kenyon and Lyons (2003), for instance, found that the majority of travellers rarely considered alternative modes for their journey. Kingham et al., (2001) observed that one of the main barriers for modal change among car drivers was the perception that alternatives were not viable, particularly with regard to travel time. Kenyon and Lyons (2003) state that car drivers’ perceptions of alternative modes of transport are often not informed by experience or travel information, but based on perception. Handy et al. (2005) work on this topic highlights that drivers simply lacked information about alternative modes, and only a few of them were willing to try public transport to check if it was a viable option.

Given this reluctance, it is only natural that car drivers’ perceptions often deviate from the reality. And these deviations are independent of trip purpose, so car-usage becomes the ubiquitous mode irrespective of the purpose or space-time dynamics of the trip. For example, Goodwin (1995) found that although 50–80 percent of people perceived themselves to be generally dependent on car use, an analysis of the trips taken revealed that only 10–30 percent of trips were necessarily tied to a car and had no realistic alternatives. In a similar vein, Kropman and Katteler (1990) found that although 83 percent of a sample of morning peak-period car drivers had the objective possibility to switch to public transport for commuting purposes, only 17 percent perceived public transport as a viable alternative. This conscious opting out from using public transport was largely based on perceptions of travel time and travel cost.

Increased Public Transport Usage… 183

Though the following is an old study, but it illustrates how perceptions operate—Brög and Erl (1983) conducted an in-depth analysis of car drivers’ travel options and showed that half of their sample of car drivers had the objective opportunity to use public transport for the trip they were making, but only five percent perceived themselves as having a real choice between car and public transport. This difference illustrates that perceptions can play a vital role in making moral choices and though perceptions may have a considerable effect on mode choice, there is also evidence that perceptions can be changed and that this may lead to changes in attitudes, consideration of alternatives and mode choice behaviour. Kenyon and Lyons (2003) illustrate this through how making a dent in these perceptions on thematic issues like cost, duration, comfort, and convenience could challenge existing perceptions and lead to consideration and use of alternatives. Garvill et al., (2003) found that increasing the awareness of travel mode choice could help in decreasing car use among people with a strong car habit. Similar reports were submitted by Rose and Ampt (2001), and van Knippenberg (1988), and van Exel and Rietveld (2001) further observed that temporary behavioural changes, may lead to adjustment of perceptions and, consecuti- vely, to attitudinal change and possibly to the adoption of a new travel pattern.

van Exel and Rietveld (2010) investigated the accuracy of car drivers’ perceptions of public transport travel time and the potential effect of these perceptions on car drivers’ choice sets. The research was carried out on a large sample of car drivers intercepted on the main corridors leading to Amsterdam, using a combination of reported data collected through a questionnaire and objective data obtained from web-based route planning software. Their results confirm the findings of earlier studies that used different methodologies: car drivers’ perceptions of public transport travel time sometimes deviate substantially from real travel times, and these deviations can be partly explained by familiarity with the trip and characteristics of the trip and the public transport system. Their results also suggest that providing better information to car drivers about objective travel times for the public transport alternative for their trips—which is the aim of many Travel Demand Management (TDM) initiatives adopted internationally—may lead to a much higher proportion of car drivers including public transport in their travel choice sets.

Changing Perceptions

While perceptions exist on travel time, punctuality, convenience and comfort of the public transport systems, the existing technologies and app-based applications make it possible to address these and start marketing public transport in a more sellable manner. Spears et al. (2013) highlight that taking steps to understand the public’s perception of services can inform the development of promotional campaigns and


Transport Demand Management (TDM)—related brands. In India, a host of informal systems of public transport exist along with para-transit and formal systems, but seldom is there an effort made to build a cohesive understanding of how these different formats of public transport link with each other, how they are perceived and they can be better inter-connected.

THE NORWEGIAN CASE The national transport authorities in Norway have conducted a national travel survey every fourth year since 1985. From 2016 onwards, this survey has been made a continuous one. 60000 people were interviewed in the 2013/14 National Travel Survey (NTS) which maps out details of each trip taken (start and end coordinates, time, length, the mode used, trip purpose, no. of persons accompanying, etc.), along with socio-economic variables of the respondents. The NTS 2013/14 and the publicly available database for public transport’s timetable provides an interesting dataset to compare the perceived and factual public transport supply in Norway.

Through coupling NTS 2013/14 data and the national database on public transport frequency and timing database, we analyzed the relationships between perceived and actual public transport supply for two urban areas in Norway, namely Oslo municipality and Nord-Jaeren urban region. Supply is interpreted here as the frequency in peak hours and off-peak hours. The descriptive data analysis of commuting trips shows a certain a degree of convergence on the public transport supply as indicated by the respondents and as extracted from the timetable database, thus highlighting that the respondents in the NTS had a realistic impression of the public transport supply available near their place of residence.

Contrary to the findings from other studies where drivers tend to inflate the travel time by public transport, the descriptive analysis in this study highlighted that the perceived and objective commuting time converges to a certain extent. This result suggests that people have a realistic perception of travel time on public transport but since huge differences exist between travel times by car and public transport, travel time savings seem to be the logical rationale behind choosing to drive. A multivariate analysis was also done and among the key findings was that men estimate the travel time to be lower than women when controlling for other factors. High population density had significant influence both in Nord-Jaeren and Oslo but had opposite effects in the two areas. The variables associated with automobile use (driver’s license, domestic cars and parking) were statistically significant for the discrepancy in travel time estimation in Nord-Jaeren, but no such effects were found in Oslo. Perception of public transport varies greatly between urban areas with a mature public transport culture (Oslo), as opposed to areas with car-based mobility culture (Nord-Jaeren).


Problem Statement

The National Transport Plan of Norway has a clear mandate for the Norwegian urban regions to absorb entire future traffic growth on sustainable transport modes with zero percent increase in car traffic. It is indeed a very ambitious goal. One of the concrete ways to go about bringing this change is analysing the potential for change in work (commuting) trips and potential for shifting commuting trips on public transport. Given that commuting trips are concentrated in time and space, it is relatively easy to plan specific public transport supply to cater to these trips considering the population projections, planning of employment centres etc. Further, in order to design future public transport supply, it is imperative that the current state of affairs is thoroughly examined. The study discussed here delved into one particular aspect, the ways in which public transport supply is perceived by the inhabitants of the urban region of Nord-Jaaeren and Oslo municipality and contrasts these subjective results with the objective realities.

Perceptions in this study dealt with questions which have been put in the NTS 2013/14 regarding travel time to work on public transport and available frequencies on the nearest transit stop.

The main problem statement that this study attempted to comment on was: What is the difference between the perceived and real frequency and travel time on public transport and which socio-economic factors have a significant effect over these differences?

The study was divided into the following parts: An overview of trip distribution, modal split and trip purposes for Nord-Jaeren and

the municipality of Oslo for 2013/14. Calculating the difference between the perceived and the actual public transport

supply and a mapping of the important variables through both descriptive and multivariate analyses.

Comments on future designing of public transport supply based on the results of the study.

Modal Split in Nord-Jaeren and Oslo Municipality

In order to appreciate the results on perceived vs. actual data on commuting time and public transport frequency, it is imperative to sketch the existing modal split in the two case areas. As is evident in the following figure, the urban region of Nord-Jaeren (Stavanger municipality is the bigger urban centre of Nord-Jaren) exhibits heavy car-dependence while Oslo has a fairly high share of public transport usage for commuting purposes.


Fig. 1: Modal Split on Commuting Trips. Nord-Jaeren,

Stavanger and Oslo Municipality, NTS 2013/14

Using data from NTS 1998, 2005, 2012 and 2013/14, Figure 2 highlights that the heavy car-dependence in Nord-Jaeren is latively steady feature of the region, which means that given such low usage of public transport, perceptions on public transport supply might be different from the actual supply.

Fig. 2: Modal Split on Commuting Trips in Stavanger and

Nord-Jaeren (on weekdays) NTS 1998–2013/14.

Estimated Public Transport Frequency in Nord-Jaeren and Oslo Municipality

On exploring the relationships between the public transport frequency specified by the respondents in the NTS and frequency obtained through the national database, it was found that results varied between the two case studies. A clear trend towards


overestimating the higher frequency categories was found among the RVU respondents in the Oslo municipality. While the timetable indicates 26% of respondents having a frequency of 12 departures or more (5 min. between departures) during the rush hour, 36% of the NTS respondents answered that this frequency category (or higher) is available to them in the peak period (07–09). This difference may have risen due to the variation between the stops that the respondents regard as the nearest stop locations (in the physical sense) but which in reality might not have been the nearest transit stop. The respondents could be stating the frequency available at the transit stop which they most frequently use instead of what is physically closest to their home.

Fig. 3: Departures per Hour between 07–09, Nearest Transit Stop, Oslo Municipality Percent

Fig. 4: Departures per Hour between 09–15, Nearest Transit Stop, Oslo Municipality Percent


Nord-Jaeren is far removed from the case of Oslo as trips made on public transport are severely restricted in this region. The region remains dominated by car-based mobility, and this dominance may also be translated as lack of respondents’ knowledge when it comes to identifying the correct frequency categories and travel times estimates. Unlike Oslo, there exists a systematic underestimation of the category with the highest frequency based on the internet database contra that reported by the NTS respondents. This applies to both peak and off-peak hours. The timetable reports that nearly 13% of respondents live near a transit stop where the reported frequency during peak hours lies in the category of “12 or more per hour”, but as per the NTS respondent’s evaluation, only 5% fell in the same category. For off-peak hours, NTS reports that only 4% of the respondents fall in the frequency category of “12 or more (5 min. between departures)” compared with 10% reported by the timetable.

It is interesting to note that the second highest frequency category – 8 times (7.5 min. between departures) is also underestimated by the NTS-respondents for rush hour, but that they match perfectly for data outside the rush hours. The results suggest that respondents in Nord-Jaeren possess a greater insight into the public transport supply during off-peak hours. It is difficult to provide a good explanation of why the data correlates better for off-peak hours, but the results could most likely an outcome of respondents educated guess.

For categories “6 departures per hour”, there is a scarce 0.1 percentage point difference between the timetable data and NTS estimates for both peak and off-peak hours. The deviations are a little higher for category 4 departures per hour (15 min. between departures). Here, the timetable database reports that 23% of the respondents fall into this category during the rush hour, while the corresponding figure is 27% among the NTS-respondents. There exists a relatively similar deviation for off-peak hours, where the timetable indicates that 25% of respondents fall into this category while 30% of the NTS respondents acknowledge this frequency category.

One of the most striking results of Nord-Jaeren is the relatively large discrepancy between the timetable’s data and the NTS estimates regarding the frequency category of “once per hour” or lower. For peak hours, the timetable database indicates that 15% of passengers will have a departure frequency equal to “once per hour” from the nearest transit stop, but only 3.2% of respondents reported the availability of this frequency category. Similarly, the timetable database suggests that 23% of the respondents should have the “once per hour” frequency available during off-peak hours but among the NTS respondents, this share is as minimal as 4%. The discrepancy indicates an almost complete lack of knowledge about the actual public transport supply in low-frequency category. This is further supported by the fact that nearly a quarter of respondents (26%) reported “do not know” regarding the departure rate at the nearest public transport stop during rush hour, while it is 15% outside the rush hour. The corresponding Figures for the category “do not know” in Oslo is located at 12% during peak hours and 6% during hours outside rush hour.


One can conclude that there exists both a combined lack of knowledge of public transport supply and a systematic underestimation of high-frequency availability in Nord-Jaeren.

Fig. 5: Departures per Hour between 07–09, Nearest Transit Stop, Nord-Jaeren Percent

Fig. 6: Departures per Hour between 09–15, Nearest Transit Stop, Nord-Jaeren Percent


Estimated Commuting Time with Public Transport in Nord-Jaeren and Oslo Municipality

Data analysis from the NTS highlights that the average commuting time for public transport users is 12 minutes higher than the average commuting time of car-drivers in the municipality of Oslo. Car-drivers’ estimate of travel time by car and actual travel time by car converge, as the actual travel time of 19 minutes and the estimated travel time of 21 minutes are only 2 minutes apart. The travel time estimate of the same group (car-drivers), if they had used public transport, shows a quantum leap in commuting time. The average commuting time on public transport would be 100% higher than the travel time by car (41 minutes). Looking at the estimates provided by the public transport users, this group has an actual commuting time of 31 minutes and an estimated commuting time of 30 minutes. In other words, the actual and estimated commuting time for both the groups—car-drivers and public transport users—converge.

Since the estimated travel time by car is 20 minutes for the public-transport users, it implies that the public transport users would be saving 10 minutes each way on their commute if they switched from being public transport users to car-drivers. It also shows that public-transport users had less to gain by switching to a car-based commuting (10 minutes each way) than car-users, who would (on average) lose 22 min each way by switching to public transport.

It was also found that the estimated commuting time on public transport, as provided by the NTS dataset, converged well only with the onboard travel time provided by the internet based timetable. This suggests that the NTS-respondents do not include access and egress time to transit stop while providing the travel time estimates, even though the question put to them in the NTS solicited the total travel time. Considering this crucial finding, only onboard time was considered for further analysis.

Findings from Nord-Jaeren exhibited patterns similar to the case of Oslo municipality. An average difference of about 13 minutes exists between the commuting time of car-drivers and public transport users, as extracted from the NTS 2013/14. This difference increases to 15 minutes when we compare the commuting time estimates given by these two groups. The timetable, however, reports that this difference is 4 minutes.

As per commuting by car is concerned, both car-drivers and public transport users estimate that they will, on average, use 17 minutes on commuting by car. Changes in commuting time from 17 minutes to 45 minutes (estimated by car-drivers) or 41 minutes (provided by the timetable) represent increase of approximately 26 minutes (each way) for car-drivers. If this difference forms the basis for further discussion, it seems unlikely that drivers will switch to public-transport for commuting purposes. Public transport users can save 13 minutes (based on their own estimate) or 20 minutes (as given by the timetable) if they switch to the car for commuting purposes.


Table 1 shows that car-drivers’ estimate of commuting time on public transport has a deviation of approximately 4 minutes in Oslo. Surprisingly, this deviation is less than 1 minute among the respondents in Nord-Jaeren. The result indicates that drivers in Oslo, on average, overestimate the journey time by public transport, but the result could also be an outcome of an estimation error in the timetable. It is difficult to determine the cause of this deviation with certainty.

Table 1: Difference between the Estimated and Reported Travel Time on Public Transport. Estimated—NTS 2013/14. Reported—Internet-Based Timetable. Disaggregated by Users of Different Transport Modes. Oslo Municipality. Time in Minutes

Main Mode Mean N Std. Deviation

Walking 0,6 332 18,2 Cycling –2,7 205 15,4 MC/moped –1,5 6 11,9 Car driver 3,8 531 18,2 Car passenger 1,3 38 13,6 Public transport –1,0 955 15,6 Total 0,4 2068 16,8

Table 2: Difference between the Estimated and Reported Travel Time on Public Transport. Estimated—NTS 2013/14. Reported—Internet-Based Timetable. Disaggregated by Users of Different Transport Modes. Nord-Jaeren. Time in Minutes

Main Mode Mean N Std. Deviation

Walking 1,1 74 27,3 Cycling –9,4 129 21,8 MC/moped –8,7 16 21,6 Car driver 0,7 620 25,6 Car passenger –9,9 33 25,1 Public transport –7,3 127 20,6 Total –2,1 999 24,9

When it comes to deviations reported by the public-transport users, Tables 1 and 2 highlights that the public transport users in Oslo, on average, estimate the commuting time to be only a minute less than the that reported by the timetable. Public transport users in Nord-Jaeren have a travel time estimate of 7.3 minutes less than the corresponding figure reported by the timetable. This could be an indication that the


answers given in Nord-Jaeren were derived from the users of Express bus only and that the travel time is less than the general routes available in the area. What is interesting to note is that car-drivers in Nord-Jaeren have almost a perfect fit for their estimate of travel time by the public transport, which further indicates that it is a conscious choice to save on travel time by not using the public transport. How these facts will shape in light of the increasing digitalization, automation, car-sharing, compact city building programs, upscaling of public transport and such policy orientations and packages in the future, remains an interesting topic for further fine-tuning.

Multivariate Analysis

A multivariate analysis, based on linear regression analysis with OLS estimation method, was conducted with an aim to identify the existence of significant differences between perceived and actual travel time (estimated from the timetable) taken on public transport for commuting purposes. The focus of the analysis was to identify how the differences between the expected (as reported by the NTS-respondents) and the estimated travel time (from the timetable) differed according to certain key variables (the main means of transport, income, education, gender, etc.). A combined snapshot of the results from Nord-Jaeren and Oslo municipality is summarized in the following points: Men estimate travel time on public transport to be lower than the women, both in

Oslo and in Nord-Jaeren. There exist statistical differences between travel time estimates by the respondents

with respect to household income and education in Oslo municipality, but the same was not found in Nord-Jaeren.

High population density was found to be significant in both Nord-Jaeren and Oslo, but the relationship had opposite indications for the two case areas.

Possession of driving license, no. of cars in the household and parking availability at the workplace was found to have a statistically significant effect on the travel time estimates in Nord-Jaeren, but no such effects were found for Oslo municipality.

Though the distance to the nearest transit stop was not found to be significant for both cases explored in this study, we posit that this could have arisen due problems related to the estimation of the correct distance on non-motorized paths.

Age of the respondents was found to have a statistically significant effect on travel times estimates among the respondents of Nord-Jaeren but no such effect was found for the case of Oslo municipality.

The group with full-time employment status had a lower deviation for the travel time estimates in Nord Jaeren, while the estimate was marginally higher in Oslo.


Summary of the Norwegian Case and the Way Forward

To facilitate a shift from car-based to public transport based commuting, both national (and regional) agencies and local authorities need to focus on the following: Restructuring of the traditional public transport supply, which currently relies on

connecting point A to point B, to become a more dynamic system. This dynamic system should ideally resemble the car-based system in terms of travel time, convenience, supply, planning, and comfort. Linking of demand-based feeder routes to the high-speed main line could be one option. Potential of solutions like ride-sharing should also be further explored.

Implementation of technologies that would make it easier for public transport users to utilize onboard time on meaningful activities like working (on their laptop or other relevant electronic gadgets), charging of electronic devices, reserving seats online, etc.

Exploring technological possibilities to ensure that future public transport supply is optimized for both time-savings and ease of usage.

THE INDIAN CASE

Background Unabated urbanization, a voluminous growth in the urban middle class with its imageries of development and economic growth linked closely to personal motorization, fuelled both at the policy and personal levels, remains one of the key challenges in developing economies. This is especially true for the case of India. The automobile industry further facilitated this trajectory in India—the introduction of Maruti Suzuki in the 1980s changed the game for personal mobility overnight, and the same trend continues with the market being flooded with cheaper and smaller cars like the Nano. This almost perfect and rare collision of personal and public dreams puts motorization on the very apex of “development” agenda and not surprisingly, motorization is expected to continue to increase at an unprecedented rate (Schipper, Fabian and Leather, ADB, 2009).

Indian cities are experiencing a dramatic increase in urban roadway congestion, noise, air pollution, and traffic accidents as a result of increased car ownership, substantial shifts from active modes to motorized modes, new roads and highway projects, and a categorical lack of focus on public transport.

Rising Automobility and the Ticking Time-Bomb The Indian case is a typical example of the policy orientation, power dynamics and its dissociation with existing travel behaviour, existent in practically all developing cities. In a nutshell, daily mobility is dictated by a high dependence on active modes and


public transport but public planning is geared towards increasing automobility. The following table presents the case of mid-small Indian cities, a special economic zone in Kochi, Kerala and Delhi to illustrate the kind of modal splits that exist in most developing cities. The predominance of active modes and public transport is self-evident, except the case of Kochi SEZ which, interestingly enough, is the result of a planned project. We can also see a strong presence of two-wheelers (scooters and mopeds) at all levels. The two-wheelers, in many cases, are a stepping stone towards buying a car and be accepted in the “modern, progressive” car-owner, car-user social strata of Indian urban centres.

Table 3: Modal Split for Varying Urban Settings in India

Mid-Small Cities1 Delhi2 Kochi SEZ3

Walk 30–45% 7%

Cycle 20–25% 7% 3%

Cycle rickshaw 20–30% 10%

Two wheeler 20–30% 21% 33%

Auto rickshaw 6–15% 3% 11%

Bus 15–30% 41% 17%

Metro 4%

Car 4–8% 14% 29% 1. Source: Arora 2011. 2. Based on 2007–2008 Vehicular Trips Distribution in Delhi. Source: Arora, 2011. 3. Based on Travel Surveys of Employees in Kochi Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in 2014 (Gopinath and Gupta, 2014).

If we contrast this scenario with the trends in cycle modal share in eight major cities in India, we see a progressive decrease in cycle use from 1980’s to 2000’s. Since routinized and structured travel behaviour survey (like in Norway) are not a part of the Indian transport planning scenario, it is difficult to trace a linear history till recent years and comment on if this trend has continued. But the increasing traffic congestion, increased automobility combined with an ever-decreasing infrastructure available for bicycling and increasing accident rates point towards a radical decrease in the cycling shares. The absolute number of cyclists, however, might be increasing due to population growth, rural-urban migration and cycling is the only mode choice available to the poor man.


Fig. 7: Trends in Cycle Modal Share, India Source: Arora, 2011. **PMR is Pune metropolitan region.

Fig. 8: Trends in Vehicle Ownership, India Source: Singh, 2012.

Note: Figures 7 and 8 are also given in colour in the Appendix. See page number 315.

The urban population in India has shot from 17% in 1951 to 32% in 2011 and is expected to rise to 35% in 2021. In absolute numbers, it is estimated that 91 million joined the ranks of urban dwellers in the 200s, though this number might be much larger than the official estimates. Analyzed in terms of vehicular growth, 35% of the


total vehicles in the country are concentrated in the metropolitan cities alone, which constitute just 11% of the population. And though public transport usage is high, the share of buses is negligible—two-wheelers and cars constitute 90% of the total vehicles on road in contrast to buses which constitute less than 1% of the motorized vehicles.

The multiplicity of organizations at the National, regional and local levels which govern the transport planning arena invariably diminishes a sole focus on transport planning solutions.

In this scenario, it is not surprising that no routine studies are in place to gauge the perceptions of either public-transport users or non-users to facilitate planning towards increased public transport usage in the Indian urban centres. In lack of such datasets, it is difficult to produce analyses like the one presented for Norway in section 3.0 of this chapter. And without a disaggregated and detailed analyses of how public transport usage can be increased, a realistic check on both pollution levels and preparing the Indian cities for climate-change-related challenges will be impossible to achieve.

INFORMAL MODES OF TRANSPORT

The Norwegian case was presented to highlight the kind of detailed analyses that are possible if data is available on daily mobility/travel behaviour where all transport modes, socio-economic variables and physical location of trips are plotted on a regular basis. Studies on informal modes of transport are rare and even despite their strong presence in the urban mobility scenario, they are seldom considered in the formal transport planning decisions. Exceptions to this scenario are presented by the case of Bhopal (Tiwari, 2014) where attempts were made to include the informal transport in the formal mode of planning.

In the transport arena, the associated Risk, Uncertainty and Irreversibility (RUI) issues get exacerbated by the fact that decisions like constructing a highway or major road projects are both resource consuming, practically irreversible and generally operate on longer time horizons (Richardson, 2005; Kaijser, 2005).

Given the primacy of road-building (and highways) projects in the Indian urban centres despite the existing modal split, highlights that firstly, policies and investment decisions are based on imperfect and incomplete knowledge, and secondly, there is a strong dynamics of power play in decision making which goes unchecked due to a categorical lack of evidence-based planning methodologies/approach. And in light of the fact that decision parameters seem to be unobserved and unmeasured, there is a demand for rethinking traditional approaches that assume a deterministic model of the world in which the future is predictable (Lewis, 2007, cited in World Bank, 2010) and increasingly automobile-based. This has implications for institutional arrangements as well, including the allocation of responsibilities, funding and evaluation mechanisms


to the different levels of government (state, regional and local) in the transport sector. Given the multiplicity of actors involved in decision-making—public authorities, NGOs, experts and policymakers, bureaucrats, economic agents, activists, etc.—an understanding of the belief and value systems, perceptions, attitudes, preferences and behaviour of both these actors and citizens related to RUI can provide a starting point of designing public transport policies. This will help in adopting an evidence-based, inclusive approach towards creating policy instruments (economical, regulatory, technological, etc.), in light of appreciating the barriers to implementation.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION

This chapter set out to underscore the importance of steering current travel behaviour and modal split in Indian cities towards increased public transport usage and curbing both the increasing incidence of and focus on automobility. It briefly mapped the case of Oslo and Nord-Jaeren, Norway to highlight firstly, how a systematic and routine data collection on travel behaviour can aid in making meaningful interpretations of travel behaviour. Secondly, gauging users’ perceptions on public transport and plotting these perceptions against the factual data can give vital clues on the areas which need to be addressed for making public transport an attractive and viable option. In case of Norway, the travel time differences emerge as a major explanatory factor for skewed distribution between public transport and car usage for commuting purposes in Oslo and Nord-Jaeren.

Zooming down on the actual physical mobility dimension, one needs to acknowledge that this field is highly charged to make significant changes in people’s life. A final suggestion of this chapter is to create feedback systems on public transport usage which can be incorporated into mainstream planning. Åström and Murray (2008) define Feedback as the interactions of two (or more) dynamical systems that are connected together in a fashion where each system influences the other and their dynamics are thus strongly coupled. A system is a closed loop if the systems are interconnected in a cycle and open loop when this interconnection is broken. Two key properties of feedback are its ability to provide robustness to uncertainty and its use in the design of dynamics. The following five key criteria can be made part of this feedback system: What is the nature of the existing public transport systems? Volume, routes, timing,

conceptualisations, definitions, user and provider perspectives. Reasons for the various facets of existing public transport systems? Market effects,

public policies, funding structures, service provision, capacities and constraints of providers and users.

Who is affected or at risk? Demographic breakdowns, distribution across different income groups, behavioural analyses.


Where is it happening? Geographies, spatial distributions, affected areas; settlement types.

How can it be addressed? Action pathways, strategies and timescales, tools, resources and capacities, institutional arrangements, delivery agencies, existing good practices.

In the beginning, attempts will definitely increase the overall complexity of addressing the entire gamut of players involved with public transport in the developing cities. But as long as their dynamics are dependent on one another, they can be combined to create a feedback system on ‘the dynamics of how to increase public transport ridership while curbing shifts to automobility’ to inform future planning decisions.

REFERENCES [1] Arora, A. (2011). Mobility in Urban India—Challenges for Equity and Innovation,

Available at: https://www.ucl.ac.uk/bartlett/development/sites/bartlett/files/mobility_in_ india_-_challenges_for_equity_and_innovation.pdf

[2] Aroram, A. (2011). Non-Motorized Transport in Peri-urban Areas of Delhi, India, Case Study Prepared for Global Report on Human Settlements 2013, Available at: http:// unhabitat.org/wpcontent/uploads/2013/06/GRHS.2013.Case_.Study_.Delhi_.India_.pdf

[3] Åström and Murray (2008). Feedback Systems: An Introduction for Scientists and Engineers. Princeton University Press.

[4] Brög, W. and Erl, E. (1983). Application of a Model of Individual Behaviour (situational approach) to Explain Household Activity Patterns in an Urban Area and to Forecast Behavioural Changes. In S. Carpenter and P. Jones, eds., Recent Advances in Travel Demand Analysis, Aldershot.

[5] Garvill, J., Marell, A. and Nordlund, A. (2003). Effects of Increased Awareness on Choice of Travel Mode, Transportation, 30: 63–79.

[6] Goodwin, P. (1995). Car Dependence, Transportation 2(3): 151–152. [7] Gopinath, A. and Gupta, S. (2014). Planning Strategies for Low Carbon Mobility on a

Proposed Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Kochi, Available at: http://urbanmobility india.in/Upload/Conference/41455a86-2f91-41f5-af07-79e9bb96805e.pdf

[8] Handy, S., Weston, L. and Mokhtarian, P. (2005). Driving by Choice or Necessity? Transportation Research Part A, 39(2/3): 183–204.

[9] INCCA Indian Network for Climate Change Assessment (2010). India: Greenhouse Gas Emissions 2007 Available at: http://www.moef.nic.in/downloads/public-information/ Report_INCCA.pdf

[10] Kaijser, A. (2005). How to Describe Large Technical Systems and Their Changes Over Time?’ In Eds. Jönson G. and E. Tengström, Urban Transport Development a Complex Issue, Springer.

[11] Kenyon, S. and Lyons, G. (2003). The Value of Integrated Multimodal Information and Its Potential Contribution to Modal Change, Transportation Research Part F, 6: 1–21.


[12] Kingham, S., Dickinson, J. and Copsey, S. (2001). Travelling to Work: Will People Move Out of Their Cars? Transport Policy B, 8(151–160).

[13] Kropman, J. and Katteler, H. (1990). Files in de Randstad, Oplossingen Op Het Spoor? Onderzoek Naar Substitutiemogelijkheden Voor Het Autogebruik op de Corridor Dordrecht-Rotterdam (In Dutch); [Traffic jams in the Randstad, solutions on rails? An investigation of possibilities for substitution of car use on the Dordrecht-Rotterdam corridor]. Nijmegen, Netherlands: ITS Institute for Applied Social Sciences.

[14] Lewis, M. (2007). “In Nature’s Casino.” New York Times. [15] Richardson, B.C. (2005). Sustainable Transport: Analysis Frameworks. Journal of

Transport Geography.13: 29–39. [16] Rose, G. and Ampt, E. (2001). Travel Blending: An Australian Travel Awareness

Initiative, Transportation Research D., 6(2): 95–110. [17] Schipper, L., Fabian, H. and Leather, J. (2009). Transport and Carbon Dioxide Emissions:

Forecasts, Options Analysis, and Evaluation. ADB Sustainable Development, Working Paper Series.

[18] Singh, S.K. (2012). Urban Transport in India: Issues, Challenges, and the Way Forward. European Transport, 52(5): 1–26.

[19] Spears, S., Houston, D. and Boarnet, M.G. (2013). Illuminating the Unseen in Transit Use: A Framework for Examining the Effect of Attitudes and Perceptions on Travel Behaviour, Transportation Research Part A: Policy And Practice, 58: 40–53.

[20] Tiwari, D. (2014). Planning for Formalizing Informal Public Transport in Bhopal, Available at: https://www.slideshare.net/EMBARQNetwork/formalizing-informal-public-transport-41696805

[21] van Exel, N. and Rietveld, P. (2001). Public Transport Strikes and Traveller Behaviour, Transport Policy, 8(4): 237–246.

[22] van Exel, N.J.A. and Rietveld, P. (2010). Perceptions of Public Transport Travel Time and Their Effect on Choice-Sets among Car Drivers, Journal of Transport and Land Use JTLU, 2 (3): 75–86.

[23] van Knippenberg, D. and van Knippenberg, C. (1988). Influencing Mode Choice in Commuting Travel by Means of an Induced Temporary Behavioural Change (in dutch), Report VK 88–11, Traffic Research Centre, University of Groningen, Groningen.

[24] World Bank (2010). World Development Report 2010, Development and Climate Change, World Bank, Washington D.C.

200

Energy Saving Devices and their Beneficial Effects on Reduction

of Carbon Emissions K. Ravi*, Sara Kunnath and T.V. Mohandas

Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Rural Energy and Development, Srirampura Cross, Jakkur, Bengaluru, Karnataka


ABSTRACT: Climate change is one of the major concerns that the humanity is facing in the 21st century. Many scientific studies reveal that overall carbon dioxide levels have increased 31% in the past 200 years. (Panwar et al., 2011) Renewable energy resources will play an important role in the world’s future as an exponent- tial population growth of 8 billion is predicted by 2030. The energy needs will be increasing every year. Renewable Energy Sources (RES) presently supply only 14% of the total world energy demand. The global community now recognizes the need to reduce greenhouse gas emissions to mitigate climate change. Globally, there is a growing awareness that increased deployment of renewable energy and energy efficient devices are critical in addressing climate change. This paper evaluates the cost and benefit of the installed equipments in Mahatma Gandhi Institute of Rural Energy and Development and the amount of carbon mitigation from the incorporation of these devices. There is a gap between the demand and supply of electricity and a huge threat to climate change. The solution lies in search of alternate energy sources and meeting the energy requirement in a decentralized manner, which may solve the local energy requirements to a great extent in a sustainable manner. Keywords: Renewable Energy, Sustainable Development, Energy Conservation, Energy Efficiency, Climate Change

INTRODUCTION

ndia is the fastest growing major economy in the world. There will be a great demand for energy in future. In order to achieve average 8 percent annual GDP

growth in India, to power its vast population’s energy needs, infrastructural developments and for automobile and allied industries, the country needs a large amount of electricity. India has pledged under the Copenhagen Accord to reduce its carbon dioxide intensity (emissions per GDP) by 20 to 25 percent by 2020 compared to 2005 levels (India’s Climate and Energy Policies, 2015). In June 2008, the Prime Minister released India’s first National Action Plan on Climate Change, which identified eight

I

Energy Saving Devices and their Beneficial Effects on Reduction of Carbon Emissions 201

core “National Missions” running through 2017 which lay great emphasis on renewable energy (NAPCC, 2008).

In order to achieve the growth target through alternative energy, which is environment-friendly and renewable is a definite challenge. The diversification of a country’s energy, to green energy supply facilitates energy security, creates flexibility, and allows for an increase in installed capacity and reduces greenhouse gases and prevents climate change. Growth in this direction has to be driven by several factors, including renewable energy support policies and the increasing cost-competitiveness of energy from renewable sources. (REN21, 2015) In many countries, renewables are broadly competitive with conventional energy sources. At the same time, growth continues to be tempered by subsidies, particularly in developing countries.

MAHATMA GANDHI INSTITUTE OF RURAL ENERGY AND DEVELOPMENT (MGIRED)

MGIRED is a Southern Regional Instituteestablished in the year 2000 with the assistance of MNRE, Government of India, and Department ofRural Development and Panchayat Raj, Government of Karnataka. In the year 2004, the Institute was brought under the control of State Government, governed by Governing Council and Executive Committee headed by Additional Chief Secretary and DevelopmentCommissioner, Government of Karnataka and Principal Secretary, Rural Development and Panchayat Raj respectively. The vision of MGIRED is to be a lead knowledge and resource center of excellence in renewable energy, energy conservation, natural resource management, environment protection, forestry, rural development and also to create awareness in the latest development in Rural Energy, Rainwater Harvesting, Groundwater conservation to the rural masses to make them self sustainable. MGIRED is thriving to provide energy solutions by way of creating awareness to have a clean pollution free environment by reducing greenhouse gases in their surroundings and cater to marginalized people especially in rural areas to take up developmental activities in order to promote sustainability.

MGIRED conducts training for Gram Panchayat members on renewable energy and energy conservation and helps them to convert their villages into energy efficient villages. Training is also done in solar photovoltaic for ITI and Diploma students which is a resident programme called Suryamitra skill development programme which spans three months. Various one day two days and five-day training programmes are conducted for school and college students.

ENERGY GENERATING SYSTEMS AT MGIRED

MGIRED as an institution educating and creating awareness in the renewable energy field leads by example.


20 kW Solar Photovoltaic System

This system is Grid connected with Net Metering with an installed capacity 20 kW and produces 80 units/day. The Institute uses the renewable energy to power its administrative complex. The 20 kW system powers the seminar hall, common area lighting, auditorium, etc. As this system is grid-tied and has net metering, the excess power that the institution produces is exported to the grid after its use, and about an average of ` 12,000 is being payed back by the Bescom, and is credited to the institution’s account every month, for the exported power at the rate of ` 9.56/unit.

5 kW Solar and 2.25 kW Solar Photovoltaic System

5 kW Solar Photovoltaic system produces 20 units/day and 2.25 kW Solar Photovoltaic produces 8 units/day. This powers Gram Panchayat seminar hall and Suryamitra classes. All the lights, fans and computers in all these halls are powered solely by renewable energy. This system also powers the faculty rooms and computers, fans and lights.

The rooftop system provides clean energy. The 5 kW and 2.25 kW systems are not grid-tied. So maximum appliances are connected to this as to draw the total energy produced each day. The institution works from nine in the morning to six in the evening. This coincides with the sun window and is able to use all the energy produced during the day. Both the 5 kW and 2.25 kW system has battery back up.

Wind and Solar Hybrid System

Wind and solar hybrid is a 1.15 kW PV-wind hybrid system with 500 WP SPV system hybridized with 650 WP vertical wind hybrid system, which brings in more reliability. On an average, it can produce 4–5 units, which is stored in the batteries and is being exclusively used in Executive Director’s chamber for lighting, fans and computer.


Solar Water Pump

The solar pump installed in the campus produces 3.5 units per day. The pump is being operated by solar power by which water is pumped out of the well and is stored in sumps and overhead water tanks for further use.

Table 1: Energy Generating Systems in MGIRED

System Units/ Day

Units/ Month

Units/ Year

CO2 Mitigation 20 kW Solar roof top system 80 2400 28800 23040 5 kW Solar roof top system 20 600 7200 5760 2.25 kW Solar roof top system 8 240 2880 2304 Wind and Solar hybrid system 1.15 kW 3 90 1080 864 Solar water pump-960 W 3.5 105 1260 1008 Total 114.5 3435 41220 32974

20 kW system was installed at an expense of 18 lakhs. The system produces 80 units of power in a day and 2400 units in a month and 28800 units a year. The 5 kW system produces 20 units of electricity per day and 600 units in a month and 7200 units in a year.


Fig. 1: Generation of Renewable Energy (units/month) by Type of Devices

The 2.25 kW system installed at a cost of ` 2.4 lakhs, produces 8 units in a day, 240 units in a month and 2880 units in a year. The solar water pump installed at a cost of ` 1 lakh produces 3.5 units a day 105 units a month and 1260 units a year.

Fig. 2: Generation of Renewable Energy (units/year) by Type of Devices

The wind and solar hybrid system produce 3 units of power per day and 90 units in a month and 1080 in a year.

The carbon mitigation is calculated at 0.8 kg per unit of power generated. Hence the carbon mitigation by the 20 kW system for one year is 23040 kgs. The carbon mitigation for a 5 kW system for one year is calculated at 5760 kgs. The 2.25 mitigates 2304 kg of CO2 in a year. Solar pump and wind and solar hybrid mitigate 1008 kg


and 864 kg respectively. For a total of 41220 units of power produced, MGIRED is able to mitigate a sizable 32 tonnes of carbon dioxide in a year.

Fig. 3: Mitigation of Carbon Dioxide

ENERGY EFFICIENT DEVICES AT MGIRED

The energy saving devices in MGIRED are streetlights, super fans and LED lights.

There are 12 solar street lights. The regular street lights take up 60 W of electricity but the solar street lights take up only 12 W, so there is a saving of 48 W per street light. There are 12 street lights which are used for 10 hours a day this provides a saving of 5.7 units a day and 171 units a month and 2052 units a year.

Table 2: Energy Efficient Devices

Regular New Devices Savings Numbers Hrs

Used

Units Saved/Day

Units Saved/ Month

Units Saved/ Year

Street light 60 W 12 W 48 W 12 10 hrs 5.7 171 2052 Super fans 70 W 35 W 35 W 9 4 hrs 1.26 37 453 LED bulb 60 W 9 W 51 W 39 8 hrs 15.9 477 5728 Total 22.8 685 8233

Superfan uses 35 W/hr while ordinary fans use 75 W/hr. It reduces the use of energy into half of that of regular fans. This helps in bringing down the energy use on a daily basis by using 1.26 units per day and 36 units per month and it amounts to 432 units per year.


Fig. 4: Energy Conservation through Energy Efficient Devices

LED Tube lights and bulb are the most efficient energy savers as the incandescent light takes up 60 W of electricity, and the LED lights utilize only 9 W of electricity. The savings for every LED light used is 51 W and there are 39 of them in number, which burns for 8 hours during the day. Hence there is a saving of 15.9 units a day which amounted to 477 units a month and 5728 units a year which is a commendable saving. The efficient use of Led tube lights and bulbs has brought down the energy consumed.

Fig. 5: Energy Conservation through Energy Efficient Devices

The total unit of power saved by using energy saving devices in a year is 8233 units. The tariff rate of the Institute is around ` 4.50. Hence the total amount of money saved in a year amounts to ` 37,049.

RENEWABLE ENERGY PLANTS USED FOR DEMONSTRATION

Biogas Plant

The Institute has a biogas plant, functioning as a demonstration unit. Kitchen Waste Biogas Plant—The resident programme of Suryamitra students and gram panchayat


training programmes develops kitchen and food waste, which is fed to the biogas plant which generates methane which is used for cooking.

2.4 kW Wind Energy Generator

In this system, the turbine is coupled to the alternator to generate power from wind energy. Rate capacity : 2.4 kW Cut in wind speed : 3.5 m/s Rated wind speed : 9.4 m/s Pole height : 24 m.

Electric Scooter

The Institute has an electric scooter for local use. Commuting to the local bank and all other small errands are being done using the electric scooter which uses 1.5 units to charge its batteries. Once fully charged it can run upto 60 Kms. At ` 4.50 per unit of electricity, the scooter takes only ` 6.75 a day. Compared to petrol, it saves around ` 70 a day. This is a sizable amount when calculated for a year.

Solar Water Heater

As the Surysmitra skill development training is a resident programme, the hostel is provided with 3 solar water heaters, to fulfil the hot water needs during Suryamitra, gram panchayats and other residential training. Annual energy saving is about 30,000 units and hence mitigation of CO2 is 24 tons per year.

RO Plant

RO plant in the institution is also powered by solar power.

Given the recent trend of rising cost of grid-supplied electricity and the falling costs of Solar Photovoltaic, there are great cost savings and other benefits of installed solar energy systems if incorporated by educational institutions. This opportunity is generally underutilized. Offsetting energy consumption with increasingly cost-competitive solar electricity and other electricity conservation and energy efficiency models can deliver significant cost savings to schools and other similar institutions and will also provide deep reductions in greenhouse gas and air pollutant emissions, helping to protect human health and the environment. Perhaps most importantly, renewable energy installations, energy efficiency and conservation methods, can provide teachers with a unique opportunity to teach concepts in Science, Technology, Engineering and Mathematics (STEM) and pique the interest of students in these critical subjects. World


over institutions are coming forward to make their campuses carbon neutral or as a zero-carbon facility.

REFERENCES [1] Bates, B.C., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Wu, S. and Palutikof, J.P. eds. (2008). Climate Change

and Water. Technical Paper of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC Secretariat, Geneva, 210 pp.

[2] Brighter Future: A Study on Solar in U.S. Schools Report, SEIA. Available at http:// www.seia.org/research-resources/brighter-future-study-solar-us-schools-report.

[3] India’s Climate and Energy Policies, Center for Climate and Energy Solution, October 2015, Available at https://www.c2es.org/docUploads/india-factsheet-formatted-10-2015. pdf.

[4] Kumar, A. et al. (2010). Renewable Energy in India: Current Status and Future Potentials. Renewable Energy and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 14(8): 2434–2442.

[5] NAPCC: India’s National Action Plan on Climate Change. Available at http://www. civilsdaily.com/story/napcc-indias-national-action-plan-on-climate-change

[6] Panwar, N.L. et al. (2011). Role of Renewable Energy Sources in Environmental Protec- tion: A Review. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 15: 1513–1524.

[7] REN 21. Renewable Energy Policy Net Work for the 21st Century. Available at http:// www.ren21.net/Portals/0/documents/e-paper/GSR2015/index.html#/46.

209

Paris Agreement on Climate Change: A Critical Analysis of the Indian Legal Framework

Vidya Ann Jacob National Law School of India University, Bengaluru, Karnataka


ABSTRACT: Climate change has become a great threat and is much debated globally. Human activities and industrial development have brought about massive disruptions in the climatic conditions. There is a need to attend to this growing threat at the global level on climate change by adopting green technologies.

At the domestic level, the Indian government has introduced various measures including the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) in 2008 to meet the challenges of climate change. In spite of all these measures initiated by India, the matter continues to be of grave concern. Hence it calls for a strong need-based action plan. This paper aims at looking into the various legislative frameworks governing climate change in India and the challenges faced with respect to implementing the various policies relating to climate change. The paper will also analyze the various provisions relating to the Paris Agreement on climate change and the steps to be undertaken by India to meet the challenges. The Agreement requires the member countries to take steps to compact climate change and also intensify the action needed for a sustainable low carbon future. Being the fourth major contributor to global carbon emissions (after China, USA and EU), the commitments are undertaken by India towards climate change mitigation will have a pivotal implication over the international community. This paper aims at formulating suggestions, which will help the various policies and missions of the government in reducing greenhouse gas emissions with the help of other stakeholders.

Keywords: Climate Change, Greenhouse Gases, Green Technology, India, Paris Agreement

“Climate change does not respect border; it does not respect who you are: rich and poor, small and big. Therefore, this is what we call ‘global challenges,’ which require global solidarity.”

—Ban Ki-Moon


INTRODUCTION

ny long-term change in Earth’s climate or in the climate of a region or city is referred to as climate change [1]. There are two factors that cause this pheno-

menon, namely human activities and natural causes. Human activities that contribute to climate change mainly comprise of the burning of fossil fuels and conversion of forestland to agricultural land or for industrial usage, etc. Natural causes may be due to earthquakes, solar activity or volcanic eruptions [2]. In addition, there are also internal climate systems like the ocean currents or atmospheric circulation, which can bring about climate change. There is a need to attend to this growing threat at the global level on climate change by adopting environment-friendly development. The world needs to take corrective measures on greenhouse emissions, initiate afforestation and alter the government policies [3].

It is considered by the NASA (National Aeronautics and Space Administration) scientists that the Earth’s climate is likely to become warmer if the carbon dioxide (CO2) concentration in the atmosphere increases due to human activities [4]. The fifth report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts that there will be an increase of 4 degree Celsius or more by the end of the 21st century if there is no immediate action taken to reduce industrial activities [5]. Studies show that due to the rise in sea levels caused by global warming, cities like New York, Mumbai, and Shanghai will be at the risk of submerging by the end of the century [6]. Kiribati Island in the Pacific is already bearing the brunt of rising sea level. The Islanders are experiencing extensive coastal erosion, not just of the beaches, but also of the land. This is threatening their livelihood and ecology [7]. The situation is increasingly alarming as there could be much more such instances like the Kiribati Island if the causes of the rise in sea level are not adequately addressed. Hence there is a need to reduce the global average temperature. As a step in that direction, the United Nations Climate Change Conference 2015 that took place from November 30th to December 12th at Paris has recently seen 195 nations coming to a consensus to reduce the Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions to below 2 degree Celsius.


The study is primarily doctrinal. The researcher also has employed historical, descriptive and analytical methods. Historical method has been employed to study the evolution of climate change conventions. The descriptive method has been employed to explain the legal principles governing climate change. An analytical method has been employed to analyze how the legal principle has had an impact on the environmental jurisprudence.

Primary sources used by the researcher include the International Conventions on Climate Change and the Indian legal framework pertaining to climate change. The

A

Paris Agreement on Climate Change: A Critical Analysis of the Indian Legal Framework 211

researcher has also analyzed the decisions of the National Green Tribunal and the Supreme Court of India. Secondary sources like books, articles and commentaries have been relied on to get a further understanding of the subject.

International Regime on Climate Change

The earliest evidence for the need of a collective action on climate change emerged from the Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment in 1972. It established the principle that the use of the Earth’s resources has to be regulated in line with the aim of maintaining developmental opportunities. The way in which this was to be achieved was not made clear at that stage. The conference mainly adopted a non-binding Dec- laration of Principles for the preservation and enhancement of the human environment, which was designed to inspire, and guides the people of the world in the preservation and enhancement of the human environment [8]. Following the Stockholm Conference on the Human Environment, many conventions and conferences of parties were held.

In the 2009 Climate Summit held in Copenhagen, countries brought about plans to achieve emission reduction targets. They tried to strike a balance between the contribution of developed and developing countries. However, all the member countries did not reach consensus on the same. The Cancun Summit in 2010 was considered a widely accepted conference on climate change where Green Climate Fund, Technology Mechanism and Consultancy were to be formulated in their respective countries by the members. The ‘Lima Call for Climate Action’ in 2014 at Conference of Parties 20 paved way for the Paris Agreement on Climate change wherein both the developed and developing nations made pledges, which contributed to the capitalization of the ‘Green Climate Fund.’ Moreover, Multilateral Assessment was carried out to evaluate the implementation of the previous Conference of Parties decisions, whereby many developed nations came forward to submit their emission targets. India, in this respect, has been able to show progress in establishing funds, forestry initiatives and adaptation on issues relating to climate change [9].

The Paris Agreement on Climate Change

The Paris Agreement is a Convention within the United Nations Framework Con- vention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), which has universal participation. At the conclusion of the 21st meeting of the Conference of the Parties, which guides the Conference (COP 21), on 12 December 2015, the final wording of the Paris Agreement was adopted by consensus by all of the 196 UNFCCC participating member states and the European Union to reduce emissions as part of the method for reducing greenhouse gas. The Agreement required at least 55 countries that cumulatively account for 55% of the world’s greenhouse emission to ratify, accept, approve or assent to it before it becomes effective and binding. The Agreement came into force on 4th November 2016.


As of today, there are 125 parties that have ratified, accepted, approved or assented to it and deposited such acceptance with the UN General Secretary [10]. The negotiating parties agreed that all the party states must bear common but differentiated responsibility in mitigating climate change [11]. This entails that developed nations must drastically reduce their emissions in the future and must also assist the poorer and developing nations financially and technologically in transitioning to climate change friendly resources.

The background of the Convention stems from the fact that climate change towards the end of this century is projected to be a 3.5 degree Celsius increase, which would have disastrous consequences including heat waves, rises in sea level, species extinction and diseases [12]. The main contributor towards temperature increase is carbon emissions, which is why the Paris Agreements fundamental objective is to secure commitments from states that emissions will be cut down. The convention is structured in a bottom-up approach, contrary to most international agreements, which follow a top-down approach—it is left to the states to independently decide on plans to minimize carbon footprint and cut emissions.

The Paris Agreement stands apart from its predecessor efforts due to the existence of certain notable features such as collective liability, individual contribution, review mechanism, progression, mobilization of funds, loss and damage mechanism, transfer of mitigation outcome and greater participation.

Legislative Framework Governing Climate Change in India

India had engaged itself in understanding the norms formulated in the various international conventions such as the UNFCCC (1993), Kyoto Protocol (1997) and Paris Agreement (2015). Along these lines at the domestic level, the Indian government introduced the National Action Plan on Climate Change (NAPCC) in 2008 [13].

The Indian government has initiated steps to reduce the greenhouse gas emission without any pressure or compulsion under international treaties and obligations. The measures taken up by the Government of India (GOI) includes promotion of renewable energy and investment in clean development technology [14].

The National Action Plan on Climate Change has brought about policies relating to:

Wind energy—the twelfth five-year plan looks into boosting the wind energy production from 50,000 to 60,000 MW by 2022 [15], Renewable energy, with two major renewable energy-related policies: the Strategic Plan for New and Renewable Energy.

The National Solar Mission, which lays down capacity targets for renewable [16], energy efficiency and conservation with a mechanism to implement the Perform,


Achieve and Trade (PAT) scheme covering the largest industrial and power generation facilities in India [17], New standard for vehicles on fuel-economy called Indian Corporation Average Fuel Consumption standard and [18] more than 100 smart cities to promote efficient transportation, urban amenities and energy networks to ensure the challenges forced by Urbanization.

In spite of all these measures initiated by the government, the change continues to be a grave concern, as per the ‘Global Urban Ambient Air Pollution Database (updated 2016)’ [19] released by the World Health Organization (WHO), 22 cities in India figured in the most polluted hundred cities in the world [20]. The drastic effect of this has affected the young and the aged alike causing health hazards like stroke, heart disease, lung cancer, and chronic and acute respiratory diseases. The emission of greenhouse gases has caused lasting and sometimes irreversible damages to the ecology. Hence this calls for a strong, need-based action plan. The World Development Report states that the agricultural production may reduce by 4.5 to 9 percent due to climate change in the next three decades [21].

Another important impact of climate change is by the indigenous groups of people living in the forest areas. There is a need to look into their means of livelihood but at the same time protect the forest reserve, minimizing the detrimental impacts to the environment [22].

One of the reasons why India adopted the National Climate Change Policy was to ensure clean and sustainable energy supply to all its citizens with minimal impact on the environment and (sustainable development are a means through which this can be achieved). India aims at elevating the standard of living of the people and is also trying to promote clean energy. Individual states have also taken several initiatives in this regard. Delhi was the first State in India to launch a State Action Plan (2009) [23]. As a measure of curbing vehicular pollution, Delhi government had introduced an odd-even policy for vehicles in addition to restrictions in registering diesel cars with an engine capacity greater than 2000cc. The Other States like Kerala have introduced bio-diesel pumps for vehicles. Bio-diesel helps in reducing carbon monoxide in the atmosphere. The Karnataka government introduced State Action plan on Climate change to help reduce greenhouse effects at the state level.

The Indian Constitution casts a duty on the State as well as on the citizens to protect the environment [24]. It focuses on not just the rights of the people, but also India’s commitment on the international stage.

The various legislations such as the Air Act [25], Water Act [26] and Forest Conservation Act [27] were the outcome of the United Nations Conference on Human Environment held at Stockholm in 1972. The Environment (Protection) Act, 1986 came in the aftermath of the Bhopal gas tragedy. The Judiciary has played a very


important role in laying down important environmental jurisprudence such as the polluter’s pay principle [28], the precautionary principle and sustainable development principle to protect the environment. There are various laws and rules governing environmental protection in India, however, a comprehensive legislation is necessary to address problems pertaining to climate change. The approach for formulation and timely revision of the environmental laws must be proactive than reactive.

The Position of India Post-Paris Agreement

Being the fourth major contributor to global carbon emissions (after China, USA and EU), the commitments are undertaken by India towards climate change mitigation will have a pivotal implication over the international community [29].

India became a signatory to the Paris Agreement on April 19, 2016, and ratified the same on October 2, 2016. During the negotiations, India had come up with her Intended Nationally Determined Contributions for the period 2021–2030. India is responsible for 4.5% of the global greenhouse gas emissions. At the Paris Conference, India promised that by 2030, at least 40% of its electricity will be generated by non-fossil fuels [30]. India has estimated its financial requirements to be at 2.5 trillion dollars. Compared to such requirements, the 100 billion dollars that other developed nations have agreed to raise seems relatively small. Also, this is a voluntary effort. There is no instrument that binds such nations to donate the agreed amount to these developing nations and there is no mandate on the developed nations to participating in Carbon Mitigation. Thus, if they defer from their agreements, developing nations will be at a further disadvantage.

CONCLUSION AND SUGGESTIONS

The World Bank Report “Turn Down the Heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts, and the Case for Resilience” published in June 2013, projects that a scenario of 4 degree Celsius rise in global temperature would result in increased climate extreme events such as heat waves, sea level rise, storm surges, droughts and flooding in the South Asian region including India. The coastal and deltaic regions of India are reported to be particularly vulnerable to the risks of flooding which includes two Indian cities of Mumbai and Kolkata. The rivers Ganga, Indus, and Brahmaputra are also vulnerable to the effects of climate change due to the melting of glaciers.

The existing legal framework governs laws to protect the environment but there are no specific laws or sanctions against the greenhouse gas emitters. Though effects and impacts of climate change are acknowledged under the various governmental policies, there is a need to bring about a mechanism to validate the various missions undertaken by the government to move towards clean technology. The existing legal framework has a limitation in addressing and regulating all the sources of pollution.


India needs to work towards becoming a carbon neutral country like Bhutan and for this, the government needs to make an attempt at the grass root level to curb effects of climate change caused by human activities.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

I would like to express my deep sense of gratitude to the organizers of the national seminar on Climate Change: Challenges and Solutions 2017, for giving me this platform to discuss the importance and challenges of climate change.

I also extend my sincere thanks to the chairperson of the session on “Climate Change Law and Policy”, Prof. (Dr.) M.K. Ramesh, NLSIU, Bengaluru for his valuable suggestions and guidance. I would also like to thank the management Christ University and National Law School of India University, Bengaluru for their constant support and help provided for the research.

REFERENCES [1] What are Climate and Climate Change? Available at http://www.nasa.gov/audience/

forstudents/5-8/features/nasa-knows/what-is-climate-change-58.html. [2] Causes of Climate Change, available at http://www.ces.fau.edu/nasa/module-4/causes-

2.php. [3] If Countries are Left to Act According to Their Discourse Without Looking into the

Impact Caused by Them to the Environment, there can be Unforeseen Environmental Disasters Effecting Globally. See: Amy Johnson (2012–2013). Climate Change in International Environmental Law, 17 E. and Central Eur. J. on Envtl. L., Pg. 1, 36.

[4] Ribes, et al. (2016). A New Statistical Approach to Climate Change Detection and Attribution. Springer, Vol. 47.

[5] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC], Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Summary for Policy- makers, available at http://www.ipcc.ch/pdf/assessment-report/ar5/wg2/ar5_wgII_spm_ en.pdf.

[6] Major Cities Threatened by Rapid Sea Level Rise, New Reports Find (February 22, 2016) available at http://www.climatechangenews.com/2016/02/22/major-cities-increasingly-threatened-by-rapid-sea-level-rise-new-reports-find

[7] Coastal Erosion, available at http://www.climate.gov.ki/category/effects/coastal-erosion [8] Report of the UN Conference on the Human Environment (1972). UN Doc. A/CONF.

48/14 at 2–65, and Corr.1; 11ILM 1416 (1972). [9] Namarata, Patodia Rasogi. Wind of Change: India’s Emerging Climate Strategy,

available at http://sa.indiaenvironmentportal.org.in/files/rastogi.pdf.


[10] Paris Agreement—Status of Ratification, http://unfccc.int/paris_agreement/items/9444. php.

[11] Paris Climate Deal: Nearly 200 Nations Sign in End of Fossil Fuel Era, The Guardian, Dec. 2015

[12] Robinson, Meyer (2015). A Reader’s Guide to the Paris Agreement, THE ATLANTIC, Dec. 16 http://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2015/12/a-readers-guide-to-the-paris-agreement/420345

[13] Malini, Parthasarthy (2009). India for Emission Cut Target with Equitable Burden Sharing, The Hindu, Nov. 29, available at http://www.hindu.com/2009/11/29/stories/ 2009112958120 100.htm.

[14] Deepa, Badrinarayana (2009). Emerging Constitutional Challenge of Climate Change: India in Perspective, The 19 Fordham Envtl. L. Rev, Pg. 1, 38.

[15] Government of India (2013). “Twelfth Five Year Plan (2012–2017)” available at http:// 12thplan.gov.in (last visited November 27, 2016).

[16] Government of India (2011). “Strategic Plan for New and Renewable Energy Sector for the Period 2011–17,” available at http://mnre.gov.in/file-manager/UserFiles/strategic_ plan_mnre_2011_17.pdf.

[17] Government of India. “Perform, Achieve and Trade (PAT),” available at http://www. beeindia.in/content.php?page=schemes/schemes.php?id=9.

[18] Data from IEA. “Indian Energy Outlook 2015”, available at http://www.worldenergy outlook.org/media/weowebsite/2015/IndiaEnergyOutlook_WEO2015.pdf.

[19] World Health Organization Report 2016, available at http://www.who.int/phe/health_ topics/outdoorair/databases/AAP_database_summary_results_2016_v02.pdf?ua=1.

[20] Article 2 (a) to (b) of the UNFCC Does Not Impose Responsibility on Developing Countries Whose Industrial Process Started During the 20th Century to Reduce Their Carbon Emission Target.

[21] World Bank, World Development Report 2010, available at http://siteresources.world bank.org/INTWDRS/Resources/477365-1327504426766/8389626-1327510418796/ Chapter-1.pdf.

[22] Ravindranath, N.H. et al. (2003). Vulnerability and Adaptation to Climate Change in the Forest Sector, in Climate Change and India: Vulnerability Assessment and Adaptation (P.R. Shukla et al., eds., pp. 227, 253.

[23] Kahn, J. (2009). ‘‘India Cleans Up its Act’’, Newsweek.com, 6 November, available at http://www.newsweek.com/2009/11/05/india-cleans-up-its-act.html (last visited on August 2, 2016).

[24] Articles 48 A and 51 A (g) Inserted by the 42nd Constitutional Amendment Act in 1976. [25] The Air (Prevention and Control of Pollution) Act, 1981; The Air (Prevention and Control

Pollution) Rules, 1982. [26] The Water (Prevention and control of Pollution) Act, 1974; The Water (Prevention and

Control Pollution) Rules, 1975.


[27] The Forest (Conservation) Act, 1980; The Forest (Conservation) Act, 1981. [28] Indian Council for Enviro-Legal Action v. Union of India AIR 1996 SC 1446, the

Courts have Stated that there is an Absolute Liability on the Party who Caused the Harm to the Environment by not only Paying Compensation to the Victims of Pollution but also by Restoring the Environment.

[29] Global Green House Gas Emission Data, available at https://www.epa.gov/ghgemissions/ global-greenhouse-gas-emissions-data.

[30] India’s Intended Nationally Determined Contribution: Working towards Climate Justice, available at http://www4.unfccc.int/submissions/INDC/Published%20Documents/India/ 1/INDIA%20INDC%20TO%20UNFCCC.pdf.

218

Awareness on Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture, a Study of Chidambaram Agricultural Area by Using Educational

Global Climate Model Software and Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Atun Roychoudhury* and V. Arutchelvan Department of Civil Engineering, Annamalai University,

Annamalainagar, Tamil Nadu *E-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT: Chidambaram, a semiarid region is subjected to high climate variability and sensitivity. In Chidambaram, 1376 people comprising 5 percent were involved in agricultural sector activities. In spite of the environmental con- frontation primary agricultural sector consists of local and regional marketing, with paddy being the primary traded product, accompanied by cereals, black gram, pulses and sugarcane. Interdisciplinary study has been undertaken as climate and agriculture are interrelated processes; both take place on a global scale. The study area has been explored at the local scale, by means of interview- ing several farmers and interpreted by using the advanced weathering station established by Annamalai University. In order of broad-scale understanding, advanced meteorological Metadata have been collected from the National atmospheric research lab, which relates the study to the national scale. At last, all the processed climate data comprises using, Anemometer, Sunshine recorder and sophisticated equipments are used as a feed data in Educational global climate model software. The turnout presents a substantial rise in carbon dioxide and a noticeable amount of temperature change over a certain period. Even carbon dioxide levels would also have effects both detrimental and beneficial, on crop yields. This study aims to examine the impact of climate variables on agriculture and bring out the awareness of the farmers who are quitting from their agricultural activities due to this correspondence of ill effects and helps to sustain their life of human beings for present and future generations too.

Keywords: Climate Change, Crop Yield, Educational Global Climate Model, High-Performance Computing, Weather Research and Forecast Model

Awareness on Impact of Climate Change in Agriculture… 219

INTRODUCTION

he climate is one of the main determinants of agricultural production. There is significant apprehension about the effects of climate change and its variability in

agricultural production throughout the world. The Climate Change is any change in climate over time that is attributed directly or indirectly to human activity which alters the composition of the global atmosphere. In addition to natural climate variability observed over comparable time periods (IPCC, 2007). Since climatic factors serve as direct inputs to agriculture, any change in climatic factors is bound to have a significant impact on crop yields and production. Of course, the industrial revolution in western countries rapidly utilized the fossil fuels, forests were destroyed indiscri- minately for fuel, fodder and timber in the developing countries. These factors were intensified by the human activities in the past 250 years, which had a tremendous impact on the climate system (Ashalatha et al., 2013). According to the IPCC, the greenhouse gas emission could cause the mean global temperature to rise by another 1.4°C to 5.8°C. Already the symptoms of climate change were observed at a faster rate in the Arctic and its regions through melting of the frozen ice which has the danger of submergence of the coastal zones. In the case of the inland water source, there is a tremendous change in both surfaces as well as groundwater due to erratic rainfall and occurrence of frequent droughts (Upadhyaya and Agrawal, 2014). Anthro- pogenic activities are the main reasons for Climate Change. Industries, transportation, generation of power are the main reasons for the increase in temperature. Agriculture, forestry and fisheries are sensitive to climate change impacts and on the other hand contributes to the emission. Agriculture accounts for 13.5 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions from fertilized soils, biomass burning, rice production as well as manure and fertilizer production (www.insightsonindia.com). According to Casarejos et al., 2016 (IPCC), mitigation is defined as an anthropogenic intervention to reduce the sources of the Greenhouse Gases (Phan et al., 2016). On other hand climate adaptation refers to the ability of a system to adjust to Climate Change, including climate variability and extremes, to moderate potential damages, to take advantage of opportunities or to cope with the consequences (Raymond et al., 2013]. To meet the challenges posed by Climate Change on the agricultural system, Indian Council of Agricultural Research (ICAR) has accorded high priority in understanding the impact of Climate Change and developing adaptation and mitigation strategies through its network research program, National Project on Climate Change (NPCC). Its main objectives are to identify the region experiencing extreme Climate Changes, developing methodologies for assessing the impact of Climate Change on agricultural productivity and suggesting suitable intervention for reducing the impact of Climate Change. Climate change may exacerbate the impacts and thus limit agricultural production. Notwithstanding the challenges in the agriculture sector, animal Husbandry, including fisheries sector, which together accounts for a quarter of total agriculture and allied

T


activities GSDP, provides opportunities for livelihood diversification in this sector. Any impact on agriculture and allied sectors will exert cascading effect on secondary and tertiary sectors. At present, though there is no systematic study to assess the direct and indirect effects of climate change on agriculture and allied sectors, this sectoral plan will enable the State to assess the vulnerability of the State to climate risks, prioritization of research and development issues and effective decision making to reduce risks through adaptation (docslide.us/documents/tamil-nadu-climate-change-action-plan.html).

STUDY AREA

Chidambaram, known as a temple town of Tamilnadu was chosen as the study area to perform the analysis. The town nearly lies at 11.3982°N, 79.6954°E latitude and longitude (Figure 1), with a geographical area of 4.8 km2. It is situated in the southern- most part of the Indian peninsula. Agriculture, a predominant sector for the people’s livelihood, contributes to about 7 percent of the state’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Currently, the gross cropped area is 217331 hectares, accounting for nearly 59 percent of the total geographical area of the district. Food crops account for 70 percent of the gross cropped area, of which nearly half is rice (docslide.us/documents/ tamil-nadu-climate-change-action-plan.html).

Fig. 1: Location of the Study Area


METHODOLOGY

Temperature Projections

Maximum Temperature: The study shows maximum temperature over Tamilnadu is projected to increase by 1.1°C, in the years 2040 respectively, with reference to the baseline 1970–2000. District wise changes indicate a general maximum increase of about 1.3°C over the North western districts of Nilgiris, Coimbatore, Tiruppur and western parts of Dindigul District. The minimum increase of about 0.7°C is seen along the eastern parts of coastal districts, particularly over Kanyakumari, Nagapattinam, Tirunelvelli and Ramanathapuram (Figure 2) docslide.us/documents/tamil-nadu-climate-change-action-plan.html.

Minimum Temperature: Projection of minimum temperature over Tamil Nadu as a whole for 2040 with reference to baseline 1970–2000 is likely to increase by 1.10°C. District wise changes indicate lesser changes over the western parts and close to the coast. A general rise in temperature is seen ranging from 1° to 1.50°C for the period 2010 to 2040. The southern districts Kanyakumari and Tirunelvelli show minimum increase, while the central interior districts Karur, Tiruppur, and Namakkal show the maximum increase in the minimum Temperature (Figure 2) docslide.us/documents/ tamil-nadu-climate-change-action-plan.html.

Fig. 2: Change in Maximum and Minimum Temperature (°C)

Projections of 2040


Instruments Used to Interpret

Primary Instruments: A sophisticated weather station established by Annamalai University was utilized to explore the weather phenomenon at the micro scale. Various primary instruments like rain gauge, soil thermometer, sunshine recorder, wind vane, anemometer, etc., were used to set up the preliminary study (Figure 3).

Fig. 3: Various Instruments of Analysis and Location of Station in AU

Advanced Instruments: Weather Observational Instruments enacted predominately viable for the accomplishment of the above study are such as Surface Flux Tower, Microwave Radiometer, Lightening detector, Electric Field Mill, Net Radiometer, Rayleigh lidar, High-Performance Supercomputer, 50 m automatic weather tower etc. (Figures 4 and 5).

Fig. 4: The Instruments were used Cordially to Prepare the Feed Data for the HPC


Fig. 5: Observational Facility for Modelling Activity

Comparative Studies by Educational Global Climate Modelling Software (EdGCM)

EdGCM is an integrated software suite designed to simplify the process of setting up, running, analyzing and reporting on global climate model simulations (Figure 6) [11].

Fig. 6: Software Output Sight


Weather Research and Forecast Model Application

Various meteorological data were collected and analyzed through a high-performance- supercomputer using Linux system by means of WRF model for better understanding of the effect of meteorological parameters on climate change and finally on crop yield (Figure 7).

Fig. 7: Workflow of WRF Model


A complex study was performed by HPC supercomputers through weather research and forecast model which shows the following outputs (Figures 8–13).

Fig. 8: Surface Temperature and Rainfall Data


Fig. 9: Meteograms for Bangalore

Fig. 10: Tephigrams for Pondicherry


Fig. 11: Mixing Rate of CO, RH and PM10 Analysis

Fig. 12: Relative Humidity, Sea Level Pressure, Wind Speed


Fig. 13: Change in Various Meteorological Parameters with Respect to Height

Table 1: Analyzed Weather Data Show the Significant Change

Month Temperature (˚C)

Wind Velocity Rainfall Maximum Minimum

Year 2012 January 29.3 21.0 3.0 011.7 February 30.5 21.3 3.4 000.0 March 33.4 23.3 3.5 010.0 April 34.9 26.1 4.0 006.4 May 38.3 27.4 8.6 002.8 June 37.9 27.3 9.5 000.6 July 35.7 25.7 6.3 078.0 August 35.2 25.3 6.4 079.4 September 34.9 24.9 5.8 113.3 October 31.0 24.0 3.9 640.2 November 30.4 23.1 4.5 098.4 December 29.2 22.3 5.0 045.5 Total 400.7 291.7 63.9 1086.3 Mean 33.3 24.3 5.3 –

(Contd...)


(Table 1 contd.)



Year 2013 January 33.4 23.6 4.5 004.2 February 30.4 21.8 4.1 060.1 March 32.4 22.4 3.5 030.6 April 35.8 25.6 4.7 000.0 May 38.2 27.0 6.5 043.8 June 36.1 26.5 7.3 021.4 July 35.6 25.8 6.6 042.8 August 33.7 24.3 5.2 201.6 September 33.0 24.4 4.7 144.9 October 32.9 24.5 3.3 120.4 November 29.1 22.9 3.9 298.9 December 28.0 21.1 4.0 222.8 Total 398.6 298.9 58.3 1188.5 Mean 33.2 24.1 4.8 –

Year 2014 January 28.4 20.9 4.4 007.2

February 29.6 20.3 2.7 025.8

March 31.6 21.9 2.9 000.0

April 34.9 24.5 3.4 000.0

May 33.8 25.8 5.0 183.2

June 37.2 26.8 5.8 067.2

July 35.3 25.6 6.3 092.4

August 33.9 24.8 4.7 171.0

September 34.1 24.7 4.0 034.5

October 31.6 24.1 2.5 528.9

November 28.9 23.1 3.5 341.8

December 28.0 22.6 04.8 227.9

Total 387.3 285.1 50 1679.7

Mean 32.2 237 4.1 – (Contd...)


(Table 1 contd.)



Year 2015 January 28.7 21.2 2.5 022.8 February 29.6 20.8 2.5 000.0 March 32.3 22.9 1.9 000.0 April 34.1 24.8 2.8 067.5 May 33.9 26.2 4.3 100.8 June 34.9 25.5 5.1 073.2 July 36.7 27.5 4.5 107.6 August 35.1 25.6 3.5 125.0 September 35.0 24.6 4.6 028.6 October 32.8 24.1 3.0 118.0 November 29.1 23.5 3.9 950.0 December 29.2 23.2 3.1 459.0

Total 391.4 289.9 41.7 2025.5 Mean 32.6 24.1 3.4 –

Year 2016 January 29.8 21.2 2.9 007.0 February 31.5 22.0 2.4 000.0 March 33.8 23.3 3.0 000.0 April 36.5 26.1 4.7 000.0 May 36.1 26.4 5.0 124.8 June 35.1 25.8 5.1 055.0 July 35.3 25.4 4.5 041.8 August 35.8 24.8 5.1 167.2 September 34.3 24.9 5.8 086.6 October 34.2 25.2 2.5 052.5

The Education Global Model software performs the analysis by taking the above data as a feed and represents them in the form of digital output, which includes the temperature rise and differential CO2 emission rates (Figures 14 and 15).


Fig. 14: CO2 Emissions during 2015–2016 Concerning with Various Other Parameters

Fig. 15: Global Warming during 2015–2016


Impact on Crop Production

Tamil Nadu is one of the most urbanized and industrialized states in India and only 22 percent of its income comes from the agriculture and allied sectors, and the share is indicating a declining trend over the years. The sector, which grew at 15.28 percent during 2006–’07 declined to –4.46 percent in 2007–’08 due to the crop damages caused by natural calamities. However, still, about 40 percent of the state population is dependent on this sector for livelihood. Hence the growth in agriculture is important not only to ensure food security but also for higher living standards as well. In addition to the frequent and recurrent hydrometeorological events such as droughts, extreme rainfall events and cyclones impacting agriculture in the state, the growth of the sector is constrained by a number of other factors such as reduced availability of water and declining crop area which has declined from 33% of available land area in 2000–01 to 31% of total land area in 2010–11. Further, small land holdings, deterioration in soil health due to depletion of topsoil and decline in organic content, decrease in cropping intensity and shortage of labour force besides reluctance to work on the farms and poor adoption of crop management practices etc. adds to the existing pressure on agriculture. In the last decade between 2001–02 and 2010–11, the net sown area was at its peak during 2001–02 in Tamilnadu, but due to the extreme drought in 2002–2003, the net sown area, as well as the total production, dipped significantly and has not recovered. However, with the increase in area under assured irrigation from 54% of gross sown area in 2001–02 to 58% in 2010–11, the production of cereals, pulses, oil seeds etc. are on the path of recovery and productivity of a majority of the crops are on the rise except for a nominal decline in rice and pulses. In 2011–12, the total irrigated area was 2,91,2000 ha of which 56% was irrigated by groundwater and the rest by canals, tanks and other modes of irrigation. In case of rice, 93 percent of the gross sown area is irrigated. Six percent of the gross sown area under pulses is irrigated. In the case of oilseeds, 38 percent of the gross sown area is irrigated. Tamil Nadu is the highest producer of oilseeds in the country (Table 2).

Table 2: Change in Crop Yields during Past Decade Due to Climate Change

Crop Varieties 2001–2002 (kg/ha) 2010–2011 (kg/ha) Net Change (%)

Rice Cholum Cumbu Ragi Maize Groundnut Pulses

3196 866

1223 1883 1950 1885 395

3039 1014 1564 2262 2468 2323 386

–4.9 +17.1 +27.9 +20.1 +26.6 +23.2

–2.5


CONCLUSION In order to achieve the objective of this work and to develop a monitoring-based meteorological model for maximum crop yield, several important issues are essential and has to be taken into consideration, to provide satisfactory results like, proper planning and study of the region of interest, meteorological data collection and processing etc., The study found that increase in temperature by about 20°C will reduce potential grain yields in most places. Region with higher potential productivity, such as northern India were relatively less impacted by Climate Change than areas with lower potential. Climate Change will also lead to boundary change in areas suitable for growing certain crops. Reduction in yields as a result of Climate Change is predicted to be more pronounced for rain fed crops as opposed to irrigated crops because of no coping mechanism for rainfall variability. The difference in yield is influenced by baseline climate. In subtropical environment the decrease in potential wheat yield range from 1.5 to 5.8 percent, while in tropical regions the decrease is relatively higher, suggesting that warmer regions can expect greater crop. Climate Change and agriculture are inseparably linked globally, both affecting and influencing each other. Climate Change influences the crop yield and quality, fertility status of soil and may pose a serious threat to food and nutritional security. The challenge for Indian agriculture is to adopt to potential changes in temperature and precipitation and to extreme events without compromising productivity and food security. Our study shows a potential temperature rise of 5.6°F within 2060 and uncertainty in precipitation is over various climatic zones. The consequences of these changes may result in a need to adopt existing regulation with respect to environmental policy goals. Though the efforts are going on to develop strategies to mitigate the negative impact of Climate Change and research in new directions are being carried out, more emphasis is required to make sufficient investments to support Climate Change adaptation and mitigation policies, technology development and dissemination of information. Making possible of interlinking rivers from northern to the southern India region to solve the problems of drought. Now, after taking all the probable reasons under consideration of the above study, a conclusion has been arrived that the greenhouse effect and global warming could be the most appropriate reason of climate change, which is accelerated due to anthropogenic activities. But in this regard, a practical remedial strategy of raising mangrove forest is suggested along the salt wetlands of coastal southern districts to offer protection for agricultural crops against the fiery effect of natural calamities like cyclone, and also to remove carbon dioxide from the air much more efficiently as well reducing the atmospheric temperature, thereby mitigating the growing threat of climate change. Several pilot scale mangrove forestation came into the scenario through the shoreline of the Cuddalore coastal region during the last few years, which shows a significant lapse in CO2 level.


Fig. 16: Artificially Developed Mangrove by Marine

Engg. Department of Annamalai University

FUTURE SCOPE

In order to improve the understanding of all the meteorological parameters effect on crop yield, individual parameters can be monitored and analyzed. Study on water and nutrition management also could be undertaken for a better understanding of the growth pattern of crops.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

We sincerely express the gratitude to the technical team of Dr. Amit P. Kesarkar, National Atmospheric Research Laboratory, for providing us such handy information and enabled us to complete the research work by letting us use their advanced technologies and equipment. We are also grateful to Dr. Kathiresan, Former Dean, Director and Syndicate Member, Centre of Advanced Study in Marine Biology, Annamalai University for sharing his pearls of wisdom with us during the course of this research.


REFERENCES [1] Ashalatha, K.V., Gopinath, M. and Bhat, A.R.S. (2013). Impact of Climate Change on

Rainfed Agriculture in India: A Case Study of Dharwad. International Journal of Environmental Science and Development, 3(4): 368–371.

[2] Casarejos, F., Rocha, M.N.F.J.E., Silva, W.R.D. and Barreto Jr, J.T. (2016). Corporate Sustainability Strategies: A Case Study in Brazil Focused on High Consumers of Electri- city. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Open Access Journals (Sustainability), 1–20.

[3] Climate Change Effect on Crop Production (2016 November 04). Retrieved from http: //www.slideshare.net/AtunRoyChoudhury/effect-of-climate-change-on-crop-production.

[4] Contemporary Global Climate Change (2016 January 21). Retrieved from http://www. insightsonindia.com/2015/01/21/1.

[5] Phan, R.S., Weber, F. and Santamouris, M. (2015). The Mitigative Potential of Urban Environments and Their Microclimates. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Open Access Journals (Buildings), 5: 783–801.

[6] Quick Start Guide (2016 November 04). Retrieved from http://edgcm.columbia.edu. [7] Raymond, C.L., Peterson, D.L. and Rochefort, R.M. (2013). The North Cascadia

Adaptation Partnership: A Science-Management Collaboration for Responding to Climate Change. Multidisciplinary Digital Publishing Institute Open access Journals (Sustain- ability), 5: 136–159.

[8] Salifu, A.N. (2012). Analysis of Information Needs of Agricultural Extension Agents in Rural Ghana. GIMPA. Journal of Leadership, Management, and Administration, 1–24 pp.

[9] Silva, M.C.M. Public Space and Flood Management. Journal of University of Barcelona, pp. 0–51.

[10] Tamilnadu Climate Change Action Plan (2013 October). Retrieved from docslide.us/ documents/tamil-nadu-climate-change-action-plan.html.

[11] Tamilnadu State Action Plan on Climate Change, Agriculture and Allied Sector (2013 October). Retrieved from www.environment.tn.nic.in/doc/pdf/Chapter 5.pdf.

[12] Upadhyaya, S.D. and Agrawal, K.K. (2014). Rainfed Agriculture in Central India: Strategies for Combating Climate Change. JNKVV, 48(1): 1–13.

[13] Weather Forecast (2016 November 01). Retrieved from http://forecast.narl.gov.in/ weather/pdf/new/20161101/meteograms.html.

235

Impact of Climate Change on Incidence of Dengue and

Chikungunya in Karnataka P. Chitra*, O.K. Remadevi, Ritu Kakkar, Saswati Mishra and K.H. Vinaya Kumar

Environmental Management and Policy Research Institute (EMPRI), Bengaluru, Karnataka


ABSTRACT: The spread of vector-borne diseases into new areas is favoured by the population build-up of the vectors in relation to the climatic conditions. It has been observed recently that diseases like Dengue, Chikungunya, etc. are emerging as threats to human health. The survival, reproduction rates, the intensity and temporal patterns are affected by the change in climate. Climate change can alter the distribution of the vectors and can spread the disease into new regions. The focus of this study is to understand the likely influence of climate change on the incidence of 2 major vector-borne diseases (Dengue and Chikungunya) in Karnataka. Methodology involved collection of data on the incidence of vector-borne diseases from Health department and on climatic parameters from meteorological department. Yearly and monthly analysis for the occurrence of dengue and chikungunya for 2011–2015 is done for all 30 districts of Karnataka and trends of disease occurrence were plotted. The data revealed that dengue and chikungunya recorded increased incidences over the years in most of the districts. Month-wise occurrences of the diseases were also analyzed and it showed that incidence of both of these diseases was higher during monsoon and post-monsoon seasons. Dengue and chikungunya appear to be highly prevalent in Bangalore Urban in comparison to the other districts. Correlation of climatic parameters to the disease incidence is also computed to ascertain the reason for the vulnerability of different districts in Karnataka to vector-borne diseases.

Keywords: Climate Change, Temperature, Karnataka, Vectors, Vector-borne Diseases, Dengue, Chikungunya

INTRODUCTION

he issue of climate change has surfaced as a new threat which challenges the ongoing efforts to contain many diseases including vector-borne diseases. India T


is endemic to six major Vector-Borne Diseases (VBD) namely Malaria, Dengue, Chikungunya, Lymphatic filariasis, Kala-azar and Japanese Encephalitis (JE). Mosquito species such as the Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles stephensi, Anopheledar- lingi, Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus, Culexpipiens quinquefasciatus and Anopheles funestus are responsible for transmission of many diseases.

Mosquitoes are sensitive to temperature changes as their immature stages live in the aquatic environment. In warmer climates, adult female mosquitoes digest blood faster and feed more frequently, thus increasing transmission intensity.

It is evident that with climate change, there has been a shift in the geographical distribution of several vector-borne diseases. Over the years, there has been a reduction in the incidence of nearly all the diseases except Dengue and Chikungunya which have re-emerged since 2005, probably due to many factors including the change in the weather parameters. The temporal and spatial changes in temperature, precipitation and humidity that are expected to occur under different climate change scenarios will affect the biological and ecological aspects of vectors and intermediate hosts and consequently increase the risk of disease outbreaks. The prevalence and abundance of the vector-borne diseases are particularly sensitive to changes in mean ambient temperature since their transmission relies principally on the survival and reproduction of their invertebrate vector or intermediate host, and the parasite’s incubation and survival rates therein [WHO, 2000].

Dengue and Chikungunya, previously known as urban-diseases, are the fastest re-emerging viral diseases worldwide imposing a heavy economic and health burden. Inspite of the efforts by government and private authorities, some of the deadly diseases are re-emerging and outbreaks of new diseases are noticed and the major reasons attributed point to the changes in climatic conditions. The recurrent epidemics with increased frequency in last few years in Karnataka especially in certain climatic zones prompted us to take-up a detailed investigation of incidence, seasonal prevalence and severity of vector-borne diseases in relation to climatic parameters in different districts of Karnataka.

Some of the key studies related to climate change and its impact on vector-borne diseases across the world are reviewed and presented here. (Martens, 1995) looked into the extent of climate change effects on the distribution of vector-borne diseases. The study has found that this linkage depends on climate scenario and specific characteristics of the vector-borne disease concerned. The equilibrium climate change scenario with high climate sensitivity shows a worldwide increase in transmission potential of the malarial mosquito and Schistosoma. It transpires that in the case of both vector-borne diseases, as climate changes the most vulnerable populations are those that live in the less economically developed temperate regions. Given that there are

Impact of Climate Change on Incidence of Dengue and Chikungunya in Karnataka 237

insufficient resources to take the adaptive and preventive measures which are required to deal with Malaria and schistosomiasis adequately, the potential effects of anthropogenic climate change must be taken seriously.

Climate change is likely to expand the geographical distribution of several vector-borne diseases, including Malaria and Dengue, etc. to higher altitudes and latitudes (Dhiman, 2010). Studies undertaken by him in India on Malaria in the context of climate change impact revealed that transmission windows in Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir and north-eastern states are likely to extend temporally by 2–3 months and in Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu there may be a reduction in transmission windows. Using PRECIS model (driven by HadRM2) at the resolution of 50 × 50 Km for daily temperature and relative humidity for the year 2050, he has found that Orissa, West Bengal and southern parts of Assam will still remain malarious and transmission windows will open up in Himachal Pradesh and north-eastern states, etc. In this study, it was also seen that impact of climate change on Dengue also revealed an increase in transmission with 2°C rise in temperature in northern India. His study concludes that reflect on urbanization and heat island effect leading to the greater threat of a positive lead can be negated that with the better preparedness of climate change on vector-borne diseases.

GIS technology has proven to be efficient in data collection and presentation of disease incidence for charting immediate corrective and preventive actions. (Rai, 2011) mapped vector-borne diseases density in Varanasi district, U.P. areas using GIS techniques. Here remote sensing data were used to identify the favourable indicators of Malaria breeding like ponds, streams, tanks etc. Climatic data i.e. rainfall and temperature data were also used for this study. District boundary maps, as well as block and village boundary maps, were digitized with the help of ARC GIS-9.3 software. Disease incidence report from different years was used in this study. He found that maximum cases (188) of Malaria were found in Varanasi city in comparison to rural side of Varanasi district which was due to poor sanitation facilities, pathetic condition of ponds and tanks and improper disposal and management of solid waste in the city area. Data analysis has also shown that many cases of vector-borne diseases were identified in the study area from 2005–2009. The study concludes that there is a need to strengthen surveillance and control vector-borne diseases especially Malaria, Dengue cases in the study areas and special attention to these pockets were required.

METHODOLOGY

The main objective is to study and correlate the occurrence of Vector-borne diseases in relation to climatic parameters in Karnataka. This study aims to find an association between climatic variables (temperature) and incidence of two major vector-borne diseases namely, dengue and Chikungunya in all districts of Karnataka. Another


objective is the mapping of climatic variables and disease incidences in Karnataka to indicate districts affected by vector-borne diseases. Preparation of maps for dengue positive cases and Chikungunya positive cases using GIS tools like ArcGIS and QGIS.

Study Area

The State of Karnataka is located within 11.5 degrees North and 18.5 degrees North latitude and 74 degrees East and 78.5 degrees east longitude. It is situated on a tableland where the Western and Eastern Ghats ranges converge into the Nilgiri hill complex, in the Western part of the Deccan Peninsular region of India. The State is bounded by Maharashtra and Goa in the North and North-West; by the Arabian Sea in the West; by Kerala and Tamil Nadu in the South and by Andhra Pradesh in the East. Karnataka extends to about 750 Km from North to South and about 400 km from East to West [7].

Fig. 1: Study Area—Karnataka on India Map

Monthly data on the incidence of 2 major vector-borne diseases (Dengue and Chikungunya) for past 5 years (2011–2015) recorded at Public Health Centres (PHCs) were collected from secondary sources like National Vector Borne Diseases Control Programme (NVBDCP), Directorate of Health, and Government of Karnataka. District wise monthly temperature (maximum and minimum) and relative humidity (maximum and minimum) for Karnataka was collected from sources viz., www.waterportal.org and Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC), Bangalore. Month-wise, season-wise and year-wise analysis and correlation of the climatic parameters with disease occurrence was computed and plotted using Microsoft Excel 2013 to find out the significant association between climatic variations and occurrence of vector-borne diseases.


Using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), disease vulnerability mapping of all the districts in Karnataka was created. Mapping by using ArcGIS and QGIS software allows better visual presentations and understanding of the risks and vulnerabilities so that decision makers can plan for protection of these areas. Time series maps for Dengue positive cases and Chikungunya positive cases were created to visualize the relative incidence of diseases in different districts during the past 5 years (2011–2015).

RESULTS

Trend Analysis for Annual Average Temperature for Karnataka (1902–2015)

Fig. 2: Annual Average Temperature for Karnataka 1902–2015

Fig. 3: Annual Average Temperature for Bangalore Urban 1902–2015 Data Source: IMD, KSNDMC.


District-wise temperature data for the last 113 years (1902–2015) for Karnataka were obtained from Meteorological Department and Karnataka State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre (KSNDMC). Trend graph for annual average temperature for Karnataka is found to vary from year to year with a general trend of increase over the years. The above plot clearly indicates annual average temperature for Karnataka has increased from 25.13°C to 26.44°C from 1902 to 2015°C (113 years) for Karnataka. Discussing Bangalore urban, the annual average temperature in 1902 has increased from 24.60°C to 26.62°C in 2015. Around 25.10°C was recorded in the year 1990 which has increased to 26.44°C in the year 2015, showing an overall increase of 1.3°C in the past 25 years as shown in Figure 2.

Dengue Incidence in Karnataka

District-wise analysis of Dengue disease in the year 2015 as shown in Figure 4 showed that Bangalore Urban recorded 8072 cases contributing around 54% of the state’s total Dengue cases followed by 1631 cases in Udupi (11%), 1279 cases in Kolar (9%), 769 cases in Mysore (5%) and 627 cases in Dakshin Kannada (4%). Other districts like Bagalkot, Davangere, Dharwad, Bellary, Chitradurga, Chikmangalur, Belgaum and Tumkur also contributed to dengue.

Fig. 4: District-wise Dengue Occurrence in Karnataka in 2015

Remaining 11% of State’s Dengue Cases in the Year 2015


Dengue incidence was analyzed season-wise for the years 2011–15. Figure 5 shows that monsoon season recorded the highest number of dengue cases in all the five years. Monsoon season provides a breeding habitat for the mosquito, A. aegypti which is the vector for the dengue pathogens. Only 629 dengue positive cases were observed during monsoon in the year, 2011 which has risen to 9601 cases in the year, 2015. A total of 26,853 cases were recorded during the monsoon of last 5 years, and only 5457 cases were recorded during pre-monsoon and 12,073 cases during post- monsoon. The Figure 5 shows that the dengue disease occurrence is highest during monsoon.

Fig. 5: Season-wise Dengue Incidence during 2011–15

The district-wise occurrence of dengue disease in Karnataka during 2015 was also documented and was depicted in Figure 6. Sequential data classes are logically arranged from high to low and this stepped sequence of categories was represented by sequential lightness steps. Low data values are usually represented by light colours and high values represented by dark colours. Transitions between hues are also used in a sequential scheme. Figure 6 is a disease map for the year 2015 which indicates that Bangalore Urban is the most affected district. Bellary, Mysore, Dakshin Kannada, Udupi, Kolar and Davangere are also found to be affected by Dengue in varying degrees. Though the number of cases is almost similar, the spread of disease was different in the recent years.


Fig. 6: Mapping of Dengue Disease Incidence in Different Districts during 2015

Chikungunya Incidence in Karnataka

Fig. 7: District-wise Chikungunya Incidence in Karnataka during 2015


Bangalore urban contributes around 24% of the total cases in Karnataka during the year 2015 followed by Tumkur (17%) and Chitradurga (9%). Districts like Davangere and Mysore contributes around 7% each and Kolar and Bagalkot contributes around 5% of total cases of Dengue cases in Karnataka. Bangalore rural recorded the least number of Dengue positive cases with less than 1% occurrence.

Fig. 8: Season-wise Chikungunya Incidence during 2011–15 in Karnataka

Season-wise trend analysis shows that the disease is more prominent during monsoon when the optimum climatic condition occurs for mosquito breeding and larval development. Monsoon season recorded a total number of 16,332 cases and post-monsoon season recorded 9957 cases during 2011–15. The year 2015 alone recorded around 6321 Chikungunya cases during monsoon season.

The year 2015 recorded the highest number of Chikungunya cases of around 12,520 in Karnataka with 2982 cases alone in Bangalore Urban and 1507 cases in Tumkur. The most vulnerable districts for Chikungunya are Bangalore Urban, Tumkur, Kolar, Mysore, Udupi and Chitradurga. However, the exact reason for the vulnerability cannot be attributed to temperature or any other single parameter.


Fig. 9: Chikungunya Incidence in Karnataka during 2015

CONCLUSIONS

This study is purely based on the secondary data collected by government departments. We have not accounted the disease occurrence treated at private hospitals, nursing homes and clinics. However as the data used for study is from the same source for all


the years, it will be indicative of the relative incidence of the different diseases in Karnataka. The study has helped to ascertain the occurrence of the diseases in the different districts of Karnataka across the years. Presuming that the precautionary/ preventive and remedial measures are on the same scale across all the years/districts, the fluctuations in the incidence of disease can be due to changes in climatic conditions especially which favours mosquito breeding. Though the vulnerability maps clearly depict the chances of occurrence of the different diseases with reference to the favourable climatic conditions (temperature and humidity), the realistic incidence of all 3 diseases in different seasons/year show a varying pattern, not matching with the vulnerability indication. Vulnerability maps are only indicative and the uncertainties of adaptive behaviour of these vectors, the control and awareness measures adopted by Government and non-Government organizations, the degree of socio-economic development, general hygiene, etc. are important factors that limit the validity of predictions.

This study helped us to analyse disease incidence and relate it to the climate factors. There are some limitations because of which we could not arrive at concrete conclusions. Since transmission dynamics of VBDs are multi-factorial, projections based on climatic parameters might get altered. Intervention measures, developmental activities (urbanization, irrigation, water scarcity, etc.) and socioeconomic conditions also play role in transmission dynamics. Mosquito vector’s adaptation to increased temperatures and resistance to insecticides may also alter the disease prevalence and disease outbreaks. Adaptation and mitigation measures employed to combat climate change shall help to maintain the vector population under check, thereby containing the outbreak of vector-borne diseases.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This work was carried out as a research project in Centre for Climate Change, Environ- mental Management and Policy Research Institute (EMPRI), Bangalore. Thanks are due to IMD, KSNDMC and NVBDCP for providing climate and disease data for Karnataka to execute this study successfully.

REFERENCES [1] Andrew, K., GithekoI, Steve, Lindsay, W., Ulisses, E., Confalonieri III; Jonathan, A.

and PatzIV. (2000). Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases: A Regional Analysis, 78: 9.

[2] Anirudh, R., Acharya, Jhansi Lakshmi Magisetty, Adarsha, Chandra V.R., Chaithra, B.S., Taiyaba, Khanum and Vijayan, V.A., ‘Trend of Malaria Incidence in the State of Karnataka, India for 2001 to 2011’, Vector Biology Research Lab, Department of Studies in Zoology, University of Mysore, Manasagangotri, Mysore, India.


[3] Dhiman, R.C., Pahwa, S. and Dash, A.P. (2008). Climate Change and Malaria in India: Interplay between Temperature and Mosquitoes. WHO, Regional Health Forum, 12: 27–31.

[4] Jolyon, M., Medlock and Steve, A. Leach (2015). Effect of Climate Change on Vector-Borne Disease Risk in the UK. NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Emerging and Zoonotic Infections, UK, 1.

[5] Karnataka State Action Plan for Climate Change, 2015. [6] Mangal, T.D., Paterson, S. and Fenton, A. (2008). Predicting the Impact of Long-Term

Temperature Changes on the Epidemiology and Control of Schistosomiasis: A Mechanistic Model. PLoS ONE, 3: e1438.

[7] Martens, W.J.M. et al. (1995). Climate Change and Vector-Borne Diseases: A Global Modelling Perspective. Global Environ. Change, 5(3): 195–209.

[8] McMichael, A., Campbell-Lendrum, D.H., Corvalan, C.F., Ebi K.L. and Githelo, A. (2003). Climate Change and Human Health: Risks and Responses. World Health Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.

[9] Nalini, Ghatge and Onkar, Rasal (2015). Climate Change: Causes‚ Consequences and Coping Strategies,153–154.

[10] Ramana Dhara, V., Schramm, Paul J. and Luber, George (2013). Climate Change and Infectious Diseases in India: Implications for Health Care Providers Indian J. Med. Res., 138(6): 847–852.

[11] Role of GIS and GPS in Vector Born Disease Mapping: A Case Study (2011). Praveen Kumar Rai, Mahendra Singh Nathawat, Abhishek Mishra, Sant Bahadur Singh and Mohammad Onagh. GIS Trends, 2(1): 20–27.

[12] Susanta, K. Ghosh; Satyanarayan, Tiwari and Viajy, P. Ojha (2012). A Renewed Way of Malaria Control in Karnataka, South India. Front Physiol, 3: 194. doi: 10.3389/fphys. 2012.00194.

[13] United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (1992). United Nations, 7. [14] Zeke, Hausfather; Steven, Mosher; Matthew, Menne; Claude, Williams and Nick, Stokes

(2011). “The Impact of Urbanization on Land Temperature Trends”.

247

Simulation of Carbon Dynamics of Tectona grandis Forest in Western Ghats

of Kerala, India, Using Century Model M. Manjunatha*, M. Niveditha, A.V. Santhoshkumar,

T.K. Kunhamu, Sandeep and Sunil College of Forestry, Kerala Agricultural University, Thrissur, Kerala


ABSTRACT: Forest ecosystems play an important role in regulating atmospheric carbon through the photosynthesis process. Many studies have measured the carbon stocks of Tectona grandis but those studies only captured a static view without taking into account the role of other components of the ecosystem. Century is one of the ecological models that can be used to simulate carbon dynamics and the effects of other components in ecosystems. This research has simulated the carbon dynamics of Tectona grandis in Western Ghats of Kerala using Century model. The research stages included model parameterisation, validation, and analysis of the pattern of carbon accumulation in a Tectona grandis stand grown in a reforestation setting. The parameterisation was done by adjusting the model parameters to the characteristics of Tectona grandis and the environmental condition of the study area. The validation was conducted by comparing the simulation results to analyzed statistical data from the field measurements of carbon stocks in Tectona grandis stands 0–5, 06–10, 11–20, 21–30 and above 30 years old. The validation process demonstrated that the output of simulation approaches analyzed statistical data. The pattern of the simulated dynamics in 50 years shows that the carbon accumulated in the forest system, Tectona grandis biomass, and necromass increase as the age of stand increases. However, the accumulation of soil carbon initially decreases until it reaches a relatively constant value.

Keywords: Carbon Dynamics, Tea Plantations, Century Model, Carbon Sequestration

INTRODUCTION

ncrease in atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2) concentration has been suggested to raise the mean global temperature and perhaps disturb climates in unforeseen

ways (IPCC, 2007). While the effort to reduce the increasing emission rate of I


atmospheric CO2 and other greenhouse gases has mainly been based on emission reductions, the interest in using soils and vegetation as Carbon (C) sinks is increasingly becoming popular (Lal, 2001; Olsson et al., 2001; Byrne, 2011).

Soil Organic Matter (SOM) is the key indicator to measure the potential of soil to increase the carbon sequestration. Measurements of SOM or SOC in an ecosystem alone reveal little about how C has changed in the past or will change in the future. The use of simulation model that incorporates an understanding of basic ecosystem processes and which have been validated across a range of climate, soil and management condition provides a means of investigating the interaction between components of the ecosystem (Smith et al., 1997). Well-designed modelling studies can suggest which components and processes are most sensitive to climate and what kind of management practices may be most successful in ameliorating negative effects due to perturbation in the ecosystem. Modeling has been used as an effective methodology for analyzing and predicting the effect of land-management practices on the levels of soil carbon.

Century model developed by Parton et al. (1987, 1988 in Metherell et al., 1993) can be used to simulate the carbon dynamics in an ecosystem. The model can be applied to assess the effect of different environmental conditions on the pattern of dynamics of carbon accumulation. In this research, the simulation of carbon dynamics has been done to Tectona grandis plantations in the Western Ghats of Kerala. The simulations carried out by using the Century model that has been widely used in various ecosystems. However, it has never been applied to Tectona grandis so it is necessarily parameterized and validated before. Therefore, this study will focus on the parameterization, model validation, and analysis of carbon accumulation dynamics through simulations of Tectona grandis using Century model.


The study was carried out in the state of Kerala which lies between 8°18′ and 12°48′ N latitude and 74°52′ and 77°22′ E longitude. The undulating topography ranges from below the Mean Sea Level (MSL) to 2694 m above MSL. The sample measurement had been taken in Tectona grandis plantation forest in the south-western part of India, bordered by the Arabian Sea in the west and the Western Ghats in the east.

The existing teak plantations of different age classes and natural forests were selected for studying the soil carbon dynamics of teak monoculture in the forest divisions. Teak plantations were divided into 5 age classes for sampling. The age classes were 0–5, 06–10, 11–20, 21–30 and above 30 years.

Simulation of Carbon Dynamics of Tectona grandis Forest… 249

Century Model

Century model simulates key processes of nutrient cycling of an ecosystem. This model consists of several submodels i.e. plant production, climate, soil organic matters, dead plant materials. These submodels represent pools that exist in real systems. Flows of nutrient between the pools are mainly regulated by functions of climate and plant nutrient/characteristics and parameters. Pools representation as submodels can be viewed in Figure 1. This model has been used to simulate ecosystem dynamics for most of the world’s ecosystems, such as grasslands, agriculture, forests, and savanna (Metherell et al., 1993). It has been used to simulate the response of these ecosystems to changes in an environmental variable (i.e. temperature, rainfall, and atmospheric CO2 levels). Main model inputs are monthly precipitation, maximum and minimum air temperatures, soil texture, and plant chemistry (Metherell et al., 1994). Those main inputs are subsequently used to derive other variables such as soil temperature, which is calculated as a function of air temperature and precipitation.

Fig. 1: The Pools and Flows of Carbon in the Century Model.

The Diagram Shows the Major Factors which Control the Flows


Model Parameterization

The model was parameterized to simulate soil organic matter dynamics in the top 20 cm of the soil. The model does not simulate organic matter in the deeper soil layers and increasing the soil depth parameter (fix.100) does not have much impact on the model. To simulate a deeper soil depth (0–30 or 0–40 cm depth) the soil organic matter pools must be initialized appropriately. As a general rule, deeper soil depths have older soil carbon dates (Jenkinson et al., 1992) and lower decomposition rates (lower temperature at deeper depths). Thus, it would be assumed that the fraction of total SOM in the passive SOM would be greater. The major change for initializing the model for deep soil depths is adjusting the fraction of SOM in the different pools (more C in passive SOM). The initial soil C levels should reflect the observed soil C levels over that depth and the decomposition rates should be decreased for all of the SOM pools. To increase the soil depth from 20 cm to 30 cm, the decomposition rates should be decreased by 15%. The other adjustment would be to increase the rate of formation of passive SOM; the recommended way is to increase the flow of C from active and slow SOM to passive SOM.

Model Validation

The century model output was compared with field data of SOC (0–20 cm) to evaluate the performance of the century model. Visual examination of graphics output allows qualitative evaluation. The measured and modelled datasets were compared qualitatively through graphs and quantitatively by numbers of statistical tests were used to evaluate the CENTURY model performance. The selected parameters selected were: the sample correlation coefficient (r), the Coefficient of Determination (CD), the Root Mean Square (RMSE), and EF (Modeling efficiency) which is modelling efficiency (Smith et al., 1996).

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

Model Parameterization

Parameterizing was conducted by reviewing all the existing parameters, changing, and comparing the options parameters in the Century model (Metherell et al., 1993). Some parameters in the site.100 and tree.100 files were changed. The other parameters were set according to default values which describes the condition of ecosystems that similar to the simulated object (condition in tropical climates). For forest systems conducted in this study, parameterization is mainly done in the group parameters of tree.100. There are two parameters in this model, prdx (3) and prdx (4) which arrange the plant production. Parameter prdx (3) provides the value of maximum gross primary production stated in biomass increment every month. The value of prdx (3) for Tectona


grandis which simulated in this study was set maximum, therefore, the production was only controlled by prdx (4). Parameter prdx (4) regulates the amount of maximum Net Primary Production (NPP) expressed in the number of carbon added every month. Plant production is limited by temperature, rainfall, and light intensity, and the presence of nutrients (Campbell et al., 2004). The restrictions in this model are arranged by some parameters as ppdf and precip, tmn2m, tmx2m in the site.100 file.

The amount of total plant primary production will be allocated to each part of the plant. In Century, the proportion of net primary production allocated into five components of stands (leaves, fine roots, branches, stems and coarse roots). Some parameters that govern this allocation are fcfrac, cerfor and wdlig. Parameter fcfrac indicates the value of carbon from net primary production allocated to parts of stands due to characteristics of the simulated species. Parameter cerfor shows the ratio of C to N, P, and S that contained in the components of stands. Parameter cerfor used in this study only for C/N ratio, while the value of P and S are not simulated. Lignin content determines the speed of decomposition rate for litter from each piece stands. The parameters used are wdlig (1) – wdlig (5) indicate the fraction of lignin in the components of stands. Century enters parameter leaf dr as the rate of leaf death for each month from January to December. India is a tropical country so it was assumed that the death rate of leaves for each month is the same.

Simulation of Carbon Dynamics in Teak (Tectona grandis) Plantation Forest.

A Linear relationship (r2 = 0.915) was found between measured and simulated total SOC values and a t-test was used to ascertain whether the difference between measured and simulated values of total SOC was significant (Figure 2). The tests revealed that the century model is reliable in simulating the carbon dynamics in teak plantations.

Fig. 2: Measured and Century Simulated Soil Organic Carbon Stocks

in Teak Plantations of Kerala


This scenario assumes that teak plantations were raised after clearing the natural forests, adopting normal silvicultural thinning schedules that take place at each growth stage. The century model simulated results of the dynamics of total SOC in different carbon pools such as active, slow, and passive carbon during the establishment of the equilibrium state of the teak plantation.

Results of the modelling using Century for Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) pool for teak plantation in Kerala is presented in Figure 3.

As per simulation, the total SOC in teak plantation declined to about 50 percent from the initial value of 6168 g cm–2 to 3371 g cm–2 in 30 years (Figure 2). Thereafter SOC pool declined at a slower rate (43 gC m–2 yr–1) till 45 years of age (2717 g cm–2) and reached a stable level by 80 years (2710 g cm–2). From the results, it is clear that the conversion of natural forest to teak plantation resulted in significant loss of SOC. About half of SOC was lost by conversion of natural forest to teak plantation. The loss of SOC can be attributed to many reasons. The most important among these would be the lower rate addition of organic matter in the soil. Raising of the teak plantation is about half of SOC was lost by conversion of natural forest to teak plantation. The loss of SOC can be attributed to many reasons. The most important among these would be the lower rate addition of organic matter in the soil. Raising of the teak plantation is preceded by the clearing of natural vegetation in an area. Generally, all vegetation including herbs and shrubs are removed and cleared. Teak saplings are then planted at 2 × 2 m spacing. Weeding is recommended during the first 1–3 years after establishment. Teak being an early fast grower, canopy generally closes in about four years. Subsequently, thinning is undertaken in order to prevent crowding (Koegh, 1987 and Kadambi, 1992). While weeding keeps ground vegetation under check in initial years (Boley et al., 2009), the closed canopy prevents it in later stages. In short, the miscellaneous vegetation under teak plantation is controlled to a very low level through management intervention.

Fig. 3: Simulation and Measured Results of Century Model

for Individual SOM Pools at Teak Plantation, Kerala


This reduction in understory vegetation could also be due to excessive light reduction and or allelopathic effect of teak leaf and root exudates on the germination of plants.

Healey and Gara (2003), reported considerable concentrations of phenolic acids in teak foliage. Phenolics have been implicated in regeneration failure in many forest types (de Moral et al., 1978; Li et al., 1993). Teak plantations have cover litter production compared to natural forests (Janson et al., 1992). Disruption of organic matter addition in the soil due to these reasons could be a major reason for lowering of SOC under the teak plantation. The active fraction of soil organic carbon consists mainly of microbial biomass and its metabolites (Paul and Voroney, 1980). Microbial biomass is of particular importance, acting alternatively as a source or sink for nutrients (Duxbury et al., 1989; Singh et al., 1989). The soil microbial biomass forms a labile pool of organic carbon comprising 1–3% of total soil organic carbon (Jenkinson and Ladd, 1981). In effect, the active carbon doubled by 80 in the year of establishment of the plantation. During first two years, the above and belowground biomass are low, resulting in decreased active carbon pool. Because of the beginning of the establishment of teak plantations, the soil is exposed to the environment and erosion is widespread. This would result in loss of topsoil along with the organic carbon in it. However, as the plantations mature addition of litter to soil and its decomposition increases soil organic matter. As teak grows, it provides cover to the soil. The slow pool contains physically-protected forms of plant material and soil stabilized microbial products; these pools have an intermediate turnover time of 20–50 years. In the present study, slow carbon reduced from 3700 g C m–2 to 1224 g C m–2 (Figure 3) at the age of 22, and finally stabilized at 920 g C m–2 at an age of 80 years. Passive pools comprise the fraction of SOM, which is most resistant to mineralization and decomposition. It includes physically and chemically stabilized SOC with a turnover time of 400–2000 years. Hence, this forms an important part of the sequestered carbon in soils. Passive carbons more or less remain stable. It decreased from 2150 g C m–2 to 1912 g C m–2 at the age of 50 years (Figure 3) and marginally declining to 1757 g C m–2 at the end of 80 years. The initial rapid decline in soil carbon over a few weeks represents the rapid decomposition of the active fraction and fine roots (Hendriksen and Robinson, 1984). Then the rate decreases, reflecting carbon losses from the slow fraction, and becomes asymptotic to the residual carbon in passive SOM. Stevenson (1982) lists seven studies in tropical forests where carbon losses (which will include fine root mass) range from 7–54% in one to three years.

REFERENCES [1] Boley, J.D., Drew, A.P. and Andrus, R.E. (2009). Effects of Active Pasture, Teak

(Tectona grandis) and Mixed Native Plantations on Soil Chemistry in Costa Rica. Forest-Ecology-and-Management, 22: 936–942.

[2] Byrne, C. (2011). Turning Land from an Emission Source to a Carbon Sink. In Fleeing Vesuvius: Overcoming the Risks of Economic and Environmental Collapse, R. Douth- waite and G. Fallon (eds.). New Society Publishers, Gabriola Island, Canada.


[3] Campbell, N.A., Reece, J.B. and Mitchell, L.G. (2002). Biology Jakarta: Erlangga. [4] Del Moral, R., Willis, R.J. and Ashton, D.H. (1978). Suppression of Coastal Heath

Vegetation by Eucaliptusbaxteri. Aust J. Bot, 26: 203–219. [5] Duxbury, J.M., Smith, M.S. and Doran, J.W. (1989). Soil Organic Matter as a Source

and Sink of Plant Nutrients. Plenum Press. In Coleman, D.C. Oades. J.M. and Uehara, G. (eds) Dynamics of Soil Organic Matter in Tropical Ecnsystenis. Honolulu. Hawaii. USA: University of Hawaii Press.

[6] Healey, S.P. and Gara, R.I. (2003). The Effect of a Teak (Tectona grandis) Plantation on the Establishment of Native Species in an Abandoned Pasture in Costa Rica. For. Ecol. Manag, 176: 497–507.

[7] Hendrickson, O.Q. and Robinson, J.B. (1984). Effects of Roots and Litter on Minerali- zation Processes in Forest Soil. Plant Soil, 80: 391–405.

[8] Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). 2007. Climate Change 2000: The Scientific Basis. Oxford Univ. Press, Oxford, UK.

[9] Jenkinson, D.S., Harkness, D.D., Vance, E.D., Adams, D.E. and Harrison, A.F. (1992). Calculating Net Primary Production and Annual Input of Organic Matter to Soil from the Amount and Radiocarbon Content of Soil Organic Matter. Soil Biol. Biochem, 24(4): 295.

[10] Kadambi, K. (1992). Silviculture and Management of Teak. Stephen F. Austin State Univ. Bulletin 24, Wacogdoches, Texas, 137pp.

[11] Lal, R. (2001). Potential of Desertification Control to Sequester Carbon and Mitigate the Greenhouse Effect. Clim. Change, 51: 35–72

[12] Li, H., Nishimura, H., Hassegawa, K. and Mizutani, J. (1993). Allelopathy of Sasa Cernua, Journal of Chemical Ecology, 18: 1785–1796.

[13] Metherell, A.K., Harding, L.A., Cole, C.V. and Parton, W.J. (1993). Century Soil Organic Matter Model Environment. Technical Documentation, Agroecosystem Version 4.0. Great Plains System Research Unit Technical Report No. 4. USDA-ARS, Fort Collins, Colorado.

[14] Metherell, A.K., Harding, L.A., Cole, C.V. and Parton, W.J. (1993). Century Soil Organic Matter Model Environment. Technical Documentation, Agroecosystem Version 4.0. Great Plains System Research Unit Technical Report No. 4. USDA-ARS, Fort Collins, Colorado.

[15] Olsson, L., Warren, A. and Ardo, J. (2001). The Potential Benefits of Carbon Sink in Dryland Agricultural Soils. Arid Lands Newsletter, 49.

[16] Parton, W.J., Schimel, D.S., Cole, C.V. and Ojima, D.S. (1987). Analysis of Factors Controlling Soil Organic Matter Levels in Great Plain Grasslands. Soil Sci. Soc. Am J., 51: 1173–1179.

[17] Paul, E.A. and Voroney, R.P. (1980). Nutrient and Energy Flows Through Soil Microbial Biomass. Pages 215–237, In: Ellwood, D.C., Hedger, J.N., Latham, M.I., Lynch, J.M. and Slater, J.H. (Editors) Contemporary Microbial Ecology, Academic Press, London.

[18] Singh, J.S., Raghubanshi, A.S., Singh, R.S. and Srivastava, S.C. (1989). Microbial Biomass Acts as a Source of Plant Nutrients in Dry Tropical Forest and Savanna. Nmrre 338 (6215): 499–500.


[19] Smith, P., Smith, J.U., Pawlson, D.S., McGill, W.B., Arah, J.R.M., Chertov, O.G., Coleman, K., Frmko, U., Frolking, S., Jekinsan, L.S., Kelly, R.H., Klein-Gunneweik, H., Komam, A.S., Li, C., Molina, J.A.E., Mueller, T., Parton, W.J., Thornley, J.H.M. and Whitmore, A.P. (1997). A Comparison of the Performance of Nine Soil Organic Matter Models Using Datasets from Seven Long-Term Experiments, Geodema, 81: 113–222.

[20] Stevenson, F.J. (1982). Humus Chemistry: Genesis, Composition Reactions. John Wiley and Sons. Netherlands 443 pp.

256

Studies on the Impact of a Malathion Insecticide on Certain Biochemical Constituents of a Fish, Labeo rohita

K. Anusiya Devi, M. Lekeshmanaswamy* and C.A. Vasuki Department of Zoology, Kongunadu Arts and Science College (Autonomous),

Coimbatore, Tamil Nadu *E-mail: [email protected]

ABSTRACT: Malathion is commonly used insecticide for agricultural and non-agricultural purpose in India. Malathion is suited for the control of sucking and chewing insects on fruits and vegetables and is also used to control mosquitoes, flies, household insects, animal parasites (ectoparasites), head and body lice. Malathion is found to be highly toxic to various non-targeted aquatic organisms including fish. The aim of this study was to determine the effect of insecticide Malathion on oxygen consumption and some biochemical characteristics (total protein, carbohydrate and cholesterol in gills, liver, muscle and kidney) of the fish, Labeo rohita. Toxicity evaluation tests were conducted to determine LC50 values. The 1/10th of 96 hrs, LC50 value was selected as sublethal concentrations. The data shows that the rate of oxygen consumption was declined during all the exposure periods. On the other hand, all biochemical parameters were found to be decreased in all tissues on comparison with control. The changes and decrease in protein level might also be due to inhibition of metabolizing enzymes by administration of toxicants. The changes and decrease in carbohydrate level might also be due to the stress induced by the insecticide as physiology of organism with the help of corticosteroids. The changes and decrease in cholesterol level might also be due to utilization of fatty deposits instead of glucose for energy purpose. The results indicated the toxic nature of the insecticide Malathion.

Keywords: Malathion, Labeo rohita, Biochemical and Sublethal Study

INTRODUCTION esticides are widely used in modern agriculture to aid in the production of high-quality food. However, some pesticides have the potential to cause serious health

and/or environmental damage. Repeated exposure to sub-lethal doses of some pesticides can cause physiological and behavioural changes in fish that reduce populations, such as the abandonment of nests and broods, decreased immunity to disease, and

P

Studies on the Impact of a Malathion Insecticide on Certain Biochemical… 257

increased failure to avoid predators (Helfrich, et al., 1996). Malathion is a non-syste- mic, wide-spectrum organophosphate insecticide. It was one of the earliest organophosphate insecticides developed (introduced in 1950). The extensive use of Malathion on land may be washed into surface water and can adversely influence or kill the life of aquatic organisms and other higher animals. Aquatic organisms, particularly fishes are highly sensitive to Malathion (Ural et al., 2005). The biochemical changes occurring in the body of the organisms give the first indication of stress. Several investigators have reported a number of changes in biochemical parameters of aquatic organisms due to pesticidal exposure (Remia et al., 2008; Patil and David, 2007 and Vijakumar et al., 2009).


A commercial formulation of Malathion (Agrothion 57% EC 500 gl–1) was purchased from a local market in Coimbatore and was used in this study. The bulk of sample of fishes (Labeo rohita) ranging in weight from 3–4 g measuring 3–5 cm in length was procured from Aliyar reservoir. They were carried to the laboratory in suitable polythene bags containing oxygenated water. The fishes were acclimatized to the laboratory conditions for two weeks in glass aquaria. The period of acclimation lasted for 2 weeks. Batches of ten healthy fishes were exposed to different concentrations of insecticide Malathion to calculate the median lethal concentration LC50 value using Probit Analysis Method (Finney, 1971). The fishes (four groups) were exposed to the sublethal concentration (0.5 ppm) of Malathion for 24, 48, 72 and 96 h respectively.

Evaluation of Median Lethal Concentration (LC50)

The concentration of the pollutant at which 50 percent of the test animals die during a specific test period of the concentration lethal to one half of the test population is referred to as median lethal concentration (LC50) or median reference limit in aquatic toxicology the traditional LC50 test is often used to measure the potential risk of a chemicals (Jack de Bruijin et al., 1991).

Killing of Animals

The fish was caught very gently using a small dip net, one at a time with least disturbance. At the end of each exposure time, fishes were decapitated. Fishes were dissected and stored at 4°C until the analyses were performed. The tissues (10 mg) were homogenized in 80% methanol centrifuged at 3500 rpm for 15 min and the clear supernatant was used for the analysis of different parameters.


RESULTS AND DISCUSSION Proteins can be expected to be involved in the compensatory mechanism of stressed organisms. The result of the present study showed that when the fish were exposed to malathion (0.5 ppm) the protein content was found to have decreased (Table 1). The present study revealed the reduction in protein levels in the tissues of Labeo rohita by following acute exposure of toxicant Malathion. Aruna Khare et al. (2000) observed that the sublethal concentrations of Malathion showed a significant increase in total protein content in the kidney of exposed fish, Clarias batrachus during the first week and thereafter a gradual decrease in protein content was observed in the later periods of exposure. A similar change was observed in Channa punctatus exposed to technical grade Malathion by Agrhari et al. (2006). The reduction of protein may be due to proteolysis and increased metabolism under toxicant stress (Remia et al., 2008). Thirumurugan et al. (2011) revealed depletion in biochemical parameters like protein and glycogen in Labeo rohita during various periods of exposure to Malathion.

The results of the present findings showed a significant decrease in carbohydrate content in all the tissues studied (Table 2). The decrease in carbohydrates contents may result in impairment of carbohydrate metabolism due to toxic effect (Logaswamy and Remia, 2009). Arun Kumar and Jawahar Ali (2013) reported a decrease in carbohydrate content in shrimp Streptocephalus dichotomus on exposure to a sublethal concentration of Malathion and glyphosate. The results presented in Table 3 show a significant decrease in cholesterol content in the studied tissues of fish Labeo rohita. Generally, the decrease in cholesterol contents in all tissues was found to be increased with the hours of exposure. The reduced cholesterol level may be due to the inhibition of cholesterol biosynthesis in the liver or due to reduced absorption of dietary cholesterol (Kanagaraj, 1993). Various authors studied the similar reduction of lipids in various tissues. Gradual depletion in lipid content of liver and muscle, when exposed to Malathion, was analyzed by Mishra et al., 2004. Generally, the present results indicated the toxic nature of the insecticide Malathion.

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS

The data of this work were presented as means ± standard deviations.

Table 1: Changes in the Protein Content in the Tissues of Labeo rohita on Short-term Exposure Sample

(mg/g wet tissue) Exposure Periods

Control 24 hrs 48 hrs 72 hrs 96 hrs Gill % change 2.46 ± 0.38 1.98 ± 0.43 1.64 ± 0.04 1.32 ± 0.04 1.21 ± 0.08 Liver % change 1.76 ± 0.07 1.65 ± 0.07 1.18 ± 0.09 1.12 ± 0.11 0.98 ± 0.04 Kidney % change 2.01 ± 0.07 1.98 ± 0.04 1.47 ± 0.21 1.32 ± 0.10 1.00 ± 0.12 Muscle % change 3.60 ± 0.31 3.21 ± 0.16 3.04 ± 0.15 2.94 ± 0.06 2.71 ± 0.10

Values are mean ± SD, Figures in Parenthesis are percentage decrease over control.

Studies on the Impact of a Malathion Insecticide on Certain Biochemical… 259

Table 2: Changes in the Carbohydrate Content in the Tissues of Labeo rohitaon Short-term Exposure

Sample (mg/g wet

tissue)

Exposure Periods

Control 24 hrs 48 hrs 72 hrs 96 hrs

Gill % change 12.42 ± 0.09 9.58 ± 0.05 7.84 ± 0.41 6.74 ± 0.37 4.98 ± 0.28

Liver % change

18.62 ± 0.08

15.12 ± 0.22

11.42 ± 0.31

11.20 ± 0.24

10.45 ± 0.33

Kidney % change

31.00 ± 4.03

26.42 ± 0.27

20.00 ± 3.27

12.40 ± 0.29

10.82 ± 0.13

Muscle % change

30.41 ± 0.79

24.58 ± 0.45

19.68 ± 0.39

15.54 ± 0.29

13.42 ± 0.25


Table 3: Changes in the Lipid Content in the Tissues of Labeo rohitaon Short-term Exposure

Sample (mg/g wet tissue)

Exposure Periods

Control 24 hrs 48 hrs 72 hrs 96 hrs

Gill % change

21.54 ± 0.35

15.38 ± 0.38

10.25 ± 0.36

9.40 ± 0.21

7.54 ± 0.39

Liver % change

20.05 ± 2.13

16.45 ± 0.25

16.12 ± 0.17

14.00 ± 0.69

13.14 ± 0.22

Kidney % change

37.12 ± 0.42

31.00 ± 3.45

26.24 ± 0.38

19.50 ± 0.37

11.00 ± 0.57

Muscle % change

64.65 ± 0.20

56.75 ± 0.36

41.00 ± 4.53

34.10 ± 3.97

25.45 ± 0.37


SUMMARY

There is an alteration in biochemical reserves of gill, liver, kidney and muscle of the freshwater fish, Labeo rohita. Depletion of Protein, Carbohydrate and Lipid occur after pesticidal exposure shows a greater tendency for accumulation of pesticide Malathion in the body of the freshwater fish, Labeo rohita.


REFERENCES [1] Agrahari, S.K., Gopal and Pandey, K.C. (2006). Biomarkers of Monocrotophos in the

Behaviour of Freshwater Fish Channa punctatus (Bloch). J Environ Biol., 27: 453–457. [2] Arun Kumar, M.S., Jawahar and Ali, A. (2013). Toxic Impact of Two organophosphorus

Pesticides on Acetylcholinesterase Activity and Biochemical Composition of Fresh Water Fairy Shrimp Streptocephalus dichotomous. Int. J. Pharma. Biosci., (4)2: (B/P): 966–972.

[3] Aruna, Khare, Sudha, Sing and Keerthy, Shrivastava (2000). Malathion Induced Biochemical Changes in the Kidney of Freshwater Fish Clarias batrachus. J. Ecotoxicol. Environ. Monit, 10(1): 11–14.

[4] Finney, D.J. (1971). Probit Analysis, 3rd edition, London: Cambridge University Press, 333 pp.

[5] Harpert, A., Roodwell, N.M. and Mayer, A. (1977). A Review of Physiological Chemistry. 16, Edition, California Lange, Medical Publication, 269 pp.

[6] Helfrich, L.A., Weigmann, D.L., Hipkins, P. and Stinson, E.R. (1986), Pesticides and Aquatic Animals: A Guide to Reducing Impacts on Aquatic Systems. Virginia Co Operative Extension. Retrieved on, 2007–10–14.

[7] Kanagaraj, M.K.M., Ramesh K., Sivakumari and Manavalaramanujam, R. (1993). Impact of Acid Pollution on the Serum Haemolymph Cholesterol of the Crab, Paratelphusa hydrodromous. J. Ecotoxicol. Environ. Monit, 3(2): 99–102.

[8] Logaswamy, S. and Remia, K.M. (2009). Impact of Cypermethrin and Ekalux on Respiratory and some Biochemical Activities of a Fresh Water Fish, Tilapia mossambica. Curr. Biot, 3(1): 65–73.

[9] Mishra, S.K., Padhi, J. and Sahoo, L. (2004). Effect of Malathion on Lipid Content of Liver and Muscles of Anabas testudineus. J. Appl. Zool. Res, 15(1): 81–82.

[10] Patil, V.K. and David, M. (2007). Hepatotoxic Potential of Malathion in the Freshwater Teleost, Labeo rohita (Hamilton). Veterinarski Arhiv, 72(2): 179–188.

[11] Remia, K.M., Logan Kumar, S. and Rajmohan, D. (2008). Effect of an Insecticide (Monocrotophos) on some Biochemical Constituents of the fish Tilapia mossambica. Poll. Res, 27(3): 523–526.

[12] Thirumurugan, R., Thenmozhi, C., Vignesh, V. and Arun, S. (2011). Impact of Malathion on Mortality and Biochemical Changes of Fresh Water Fish Labeo Rohita. Iran. J. Environ. Health Sci. Eng., 8(4): 384–394.

[13] Uzun, F.G., Kalender, S., Durak, D., Demir, F. and Kalender, Y. (2009). Malathion—Induced Testicular Toxicity in Male Rats and the Protective Effect of Vitamins C and E. Food Chem. Toxicol., 47: 1903–1908.

[14] Vijakumar, M., Butchiram, M.S. and Tilak, K.S. (2009). Effect of Quinalphos, an Organophosphorus Pesticide on Nucleic Acids and Proteins of the Freshwater Fish Channa Punctatus. J. Ecotoxicol. Environ. Monit, 19(1): 07–12.

261

Climate Change and Impact Assessment Jagmohan Sharma

Water Resources Department, Bengaluru, Karnataka E-mail: [email protected]

e are well into the world warmer by about 1°C compared to the preindustrial times. Anthropogenic activities are a major cause of this warming, and the

influence of warming on the Earth’s climate system as well as other natural and manmade systems is visible (IPCC, 2014). An earlier study on climate change has reported the impact of anthropogenic climate change on global biodiversity indicating that, 82% of the 94 ecological processes considered (32 terrestrial and 31 each for marine and freshwater ecosystems) have already been impacted. It was reported that the impacts “go beyond well-established shifts in species ranges and changes to phenology and population dynamics to include disruptions that scale from the gene to the ecosystem”. The Paris Agreement (2015) under the Framework Convention on Climate Change (UN FCCC) articulates the need for limiting the impacts of climate change by making efforts to hold the global warming below 2°C. Assuming full implementation of the Paris Agreement, information about the impacts of warming up to 2°C is necessary to build our preparedness to deal with the escalating risks. Climate projection models and sectoral impact models are used to understand the likely future climate and the type and magnitude of its impact on the natural (rivers, forests, etc.) and semi-natural (agriculture, horticulture, animal husbandry, etc.) systems, developmental infrastructure, and the society as a whole. High capability and complex computer-based models are now available for assessment of climate change impacts. In order to enhance the consistency of impact data by coordinating the model-based assessment efforts, global synergistic platforms such as CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project) for providing future climate projection data and ISI-MIP (Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project) for projecting the impacts of climate change across sectors and Ag-MIP (Agriculture Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project) for impact assessment in agriculture sector are available. Reliable impact assessments and consistency in the climate change impact data is vital for decision-making by governments. The institutional capability for climate change impact assessment in different sectors is limited in India. Collaborative working can help in developing reliable assessments at national and sub-national levels. Keywords: Climate Change, Impact Assessment, Climate Projection Models, Sectoral Impact Models

W

SECTION 4

Selected Abstracts

262

Effects of Water-Stress on Growth and Physicochemical Changes in Onion

(Allium cepa L.) Pritee Singh1 and Jai Gopal2

1ICAR—Indian Institute of Horticultural Research Institute, Bengaluru, Karnataka 2ICAR—Directorate of Onion and Garlic Research,

Rajgurunagar, Pune, Maharashtra 1E-mail: [email protected]

rought, one of the environmental stresses, is the most significant factor restricting production of major crops throughout the world. Being a shallow rooted crop,

drought causes serious problems in onion production. A pot experiment was carried out in the greenhouse to evaluate the response of two contrasting onion genotypes during the bulbing stage. Water stress was imposed to both the genotypes for thirty days after transplanting to pots. Desired stress levels were achieved gradually by the gravimetric approach. Plants were maintained at five different levels of stresses that are 100%, 80%, 60%, 40% and 20%. For each treatment, the following parameters were analysed and compared: fresh weight, dry weight, relative water content, chlorophyll content, lipid peroxidation, membrane stability and antioxidant activities. Imposition of water stress significantly reduced membrane stability, relative water content and total chlorophyll and carotenoid content in both the cultivars. Oxidative stress was measured in terms of increased lipid peroxidation under water deficit stress, especially in susceptible cultivars. Radical scavenging ability was enhanced in response to the water restriction as compared to the control. The research findings indicated that chlorophyll content, lipid peroxidation and antioxidant activities showed differences between resistant and susceptible genotypes. To differentiate the responses to varying level of soil moisture stress, canopy temperature was also captured by the thermal imager. The imager was operated in the wavebands 8–14 µm with a thermal resolution of 0.01°C. Images clearly indicated that the tolerant type could keep its canopy cooler relative to the susceptible one. Thus, these attributes can be used as screening tool for drought tolerance in onion.

Keywords: Onion, Drought, Lipid Peroxidation, Membrane Stability, Thermal Imaging

D

263

Assessment of Impact of Climate Change on Vector-Borne Diseases in India

Neera Kapoor Department of Life Sciences, Indira Gandhi National Open University, New Delhi


s human health is greatly influenced by dynamics of earth’s climate change, its changing pattern has brought more dire consequences than expected on human

lives. The objectives of the study were to determine transmission windows of Malaria and Dengue in terms of climate and socio-economic parameters, GIS-based outputs indicating the extent of disease spread under current conditions and based on climate change. Monthly temperature, RH and rainfall data (January 1961 to December 1990) extracted from PRECIS (Providing Regional Climate for Impact Studies) were used as a baseline. Projected scenario (A2 scenario) of PRECIS for the year 2071, 2081, 2091 and 2100 were used for future projection. For the development of Malaria parasite in the mosquito, the temperature of 18C and 33C and RH of 55–90% were taken as lower and upper limits. For Dengue the temperature limit was 12C–40C. Maps of monthly open Transmission Windows (TWs) for Malaria were prepared for baseline and projected scenario. Based on the number of months TW is open, pixels were grouped into 5 classes i.e. class-1 closed for 12 months, class 2 open for 1–3 months, class-3 open for 4–6 months, class 4 open for 7–9 months and class 5 open for 10–12 months. The increase of TW in northern states and N-E states by 1–3 months and reduction of TW in Orissa, AP and TN is expected by the year 2080. In 3–9 months, TW open categories, an appreciable increase in months of TWs is expected to lead towards stable Malaria. In the baseline, 128 pixels showed no transmission which may reduce to 90 pixels by 2091. Baseline TWs in 10–12 months are likely to be reduced by the year 2091. Increase towards the stability of transmission of Malaria is expected. The increase in transmission windows towards hilly area is predicted. The increase in ‘no transmission’ in high desert districts is predicted. Climate change is affecting health in general and would influence the spatial and temporal distribution of Vector-Borne Diseases (VBDs). Major VBDs are already endemic in most parts of India.

Keywords: Climate Change, Vector-Borne Disease, Transmission Dynamics

A

264

A Comparative Study on the Air Pollution Tolerance Index (APTI)

of Plants at Various Sites as an Indicator of Air Pollution

Merin Johny and Jisha Jacob* Department of Zoology, Nirmala College, Muvattupuzha, Kerala


creening of plants for their sensitivity or tolerance level to air pollutants is important because the sensitive plants can serve as bioindicator and the tolerant

plants act as a sink for controlling air pollution in urban and industrial areas. In order to evaluate the susceptibility level of plants to air pollutants, four parameters namely ascorbic acid, chlorophyll, relative water content and leaf extract pH were determined and computed together in a formulation signifying the Air Pollution Tolerance Index (APTI) of plants. Air Pollution Tolerance Index is used to select plant species tolerant to air pollution. Five common trees were selected for this study, namely: Ailanthus triphysa, Artocarpus heterophyllus, Macaranga peltata, Mangifera indica and Tectona grandis. Five sample sites were selected, among which four were at the roadside and one was near a quarry site. The samples were collected during summer and monsoon season. Among the five trees, Mangifera indica and Macaranga peltata had higher APTI value compared to other trees. The other trees Ailanthus triphysa, Artocarpus heterophyllus and Tectona grandis can be considered as sensitive species as they have a lower APTI value in sample sites than control site. APTI value was higher during the rainy season than summer. The study also concluded that APTI value is dependent on the traffic density. As traffic density increased the APTI value decreased. Both these tolerant and sensitive species can be considered as bioindicators of pollution and can be used to reduce the effect of pollution.

Keywords: APTI, Bioindicator, Air Pollution

S

265

Environmental Pollution and Monitoring in East Antarctica

Pawan Kumar Bharti Antarctica Laboratory, R&D Division, Shriram Institute for Industrial Research, Delhi


arsemann Hills is an ice-free coastal oasis in east Antarctica with exposed rock and low rolling hills and contains hundreds of freshwater lakes of varying sizes,

depth and biodiversity. An environmental study was conducted at Larsemann Hills to evaluate the ambient air quality, lake and sea water quality, soil and sediment characteristics, noise level, solid waste generation, handling and disposal practices, etc. Geographically, the core study area (Bharti Island) is situated on Latitude 69°24′ 00.0′′ S and 76°10′ 00.0′′ E on the southern part of the Earth. Air, water, soil and sediment samples were collected from various locations of different islands/peninsulas like Bharti Island, Fisher Island, McLeod Island, Broknes peninsula and Stornes peninsula. This assessment and monitoring work was carried out to formulate a strategy for the conservation of natural resources of Antarctica continent. The aim of this study was to assess the general characteristics, metal content, pesticide, radiation contamination and bacteriological analysis of water, soil and sediment. The air quality of different islands was also studied to assess the level of particulate matter, oxides of nitrogen, sulphur dioxide, carbon monoxide and volatile compounds in air. The present work was aimed towards developing baseline data for the local environmental settings and to evaluate the impacts of various activities on the environmental components during the construction work of third Indian station, ‘Bharti’ in east Antarctica.

Keywords: Antarctica, Environmental Monitoring, Water Quality, Environmental Components

L

266

Vulnerability of Food Security to Climate Variability

Bhargavi Nagendra Public Affairs Centre, Bommasandra Jigani Link Road, Jigani, Bengaluru, Karnataka


ood Security Climate Vulnerability Index (FSVCI) is a tool, to understand the relative vulnerability of food security to climate change of marginal farmers at a

community level. There was a pressing need for a baseline study of the food security of these marginal farmers. Collecting the required data in the data-scarce region, aids in initiating appropriate adaptation actions in the future. Data regarding the impact of climate variability on availability, accessibility, utilisation and stability of food were collected using the most relevant indicators. The indicators were aggregated using the composite index, allowing for a comparison of relative vulnerabilities. Frequent studies are carried out on the impact of climate change on crop production but this study provides a multidimensional analysis of the vulnerability of food security. This paper takes into account the direct and indirect impacts of climate variability. Vulnerability assessment was carried out in Dodderi Gram Panchayat (GP), Madhugiri Taluka. Fifty households were sampled from eight villages of Dodderi Gram Panchayat. Overall index value suggests that Dodderi village is very vulnerable to climate variability. This particular approach and index can be used in the future to assess the baseline vulnerability at sub-national levels.

Keywords: Food Security, Climate Change, Vulnerability, Adaptation, Livelihood

F

267

Ecological Research on Soil Carbon Storage in Karnataka

Sumanta Bagchi*, H.C. Manjunatha and Karthik Murthy Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, Karnataka


limate change refers to directional shifts in the distribution of weather patterns across different regions of the Earth. These include changes in temperature,

precipitation, wind flow and other factors governing overall climate of any region. Changes in the global Carbon cycle and the global hydrological cycle are two inter-related aspects of climate change. The Carbon cycle, due to increased atmospheric concentrations of the radiatively active CO2 gas, is of particularly high importance in the global effort to mitigate climate change. India, as part of the UNFCCC, is a major player in this global effort. One key aspect of climate mitigation and adaptation is C sequestration. Since soils are the largest pool of stored C, it is important to investigate options for soil C-sequestration.

Status and stability of soil C is determined by land use but is constrained within biophysical conditions determined by precipitation, altitude, and other features. The present study assessed the status of soil C and related variables (soil N, N-mineralization rates, total organic matter, and soil texture) across key land use categories in Karnataka state. The report highlighted the trends on how soil C, and related parameters, varied with altitude (hills to plains), precipitation (wet to dry) and soil texture (sandy, loamy, etc.). The study also reported trends in how soil C varied with land use (primary forest, secondary or disturbed forest, agricultural and forestry plantations, agriculture, and grazing lands). Overall, total soil C and soil organic matter were higher in the primary forest than other land use. But, other land use, especially grazing lands, was also revealed high levels of ecosystem functions and services (N-mineralization, etc.). These data can provide a baseline for comparing different land use and help remove gaps in knowledge over the status of soils and their intended roles in climate mitigation. These data also offer ways to test scientific hypotheses over the causal interactions between independent factors and how they collectively determine the degree to which soils can sequester C. Differentiating alternative hypotheses could offer a platform to influence policies that can promote stability of soil C pools.

Keywords: Soil Carbon, Land Use, C Sequestration, Biophysical Conditions

C

268

A Baseline Study on the Impacts of Climate Change on Nesting Sea Turtles

of Honnavar Forest Division Gayathri Venkataramanan*, M. Muralidharan,

Kartik Shanker and Naveen Namboothri Dakshin Foundation, Byatarayanapura, Indra Nagar, Park View Layout,

Bengaluru, Karnataka *E-mail: [email protected]

he 65 Km coast of Honnavar forest division is a sporadic nesting site for Olive ridley sea turtles. Seven nesting beaches were identified namely Gangavali,

Dhareshwara, Haldipur, Kasarkod, Talmakki, Bailoor (Bhatkal) and Bengre (Bhatkal). Since 1984, sea turtle conservation activities and hatcheries management were carried out by the Forest Department and over 80,852 eggs have been collected from the three ranges Honnavar, Manki and Kumta of which 35,579 hatchlings were released. The average hatchling success rate was 44% and average clutch size was 106 and a maximum clutch observed was 175. The nesting season begins as early as October and lasts till April, peaks from December– February. Nesting frequency was observed in the order of Honnavar>Kumta>Manki. Average nesting intensity was estimated as 2.88. The nesting density of Honnavar region was estimated to be 0.99 nests/km/year.

During January–June 2016, a baseline study was conducted to assess the impact of climate change on the turtles intensively in three beaches namely, Honnavar, Manki and Haldipur. The beach width measured from the Low Tide Line (LTL) till the Vegetation Line (VL) and gradually decreased as the monsoon advanced. During the survey, ten turtle mortalities were recorded measuring over 60 cm. Turtle carcasses of DT1, DT3, DT6 and DT7 were identified as female and DT9 as a male turtle. DT1 found on Manki was a gravid female and had a deep cut above the rear flipper, exposing several eggs. The incubation temperature was measured using HOBO pendant Data logger with an accuracy of ± 0.53°C, kept at nest depth adjacent to nest. In Kasarkod, Haldipur and Manki with an incubation temperature of 31°C in January, 31–32°C in February and 32°C in March, all the hatchlings emerged from nests (T84–T91; 8 nests) were predicted to be female. Studies showed a correlation between the AT and the sand temperature. A prediction model was used to understand trends in future sand temperature. Meteorological AT data were obtained from the Karnataka

T

269

State Natural Disaster Monitoring Centre and the average air temperature for Honnavar was 28°C. AT and the sand temperature were correlated using the regression model (Pearson correlation value = 47.3) before subjecting it to further analysis. Linear regression model was used to find the variation of air temperature based on the depended variable-sand temperature. Sand temperature is directly proportional to the AT (r2 value = 0.213, P < 0.0001). The predicted sand temperature in 2046–2065 would be 32.03–32.34°C and 2081–2100 would be 32.03–32.86°C.

Keywords: Climate Change, Nesting Sites, Hatchling Rate, Sand Temperature

270

Does Floristic Structure and Composition Change with Climate Change? A Case Study from the Tropical Wet Evergreen

Forests of Central Western Ghats B.N. Sathish*, Syam Viswanath, C.G. Kushalappa,

M.N. Ramesh and M.L. Karthik College of Forestry, University of Agricultural and Horticultural Sciences,

Ponnampet, Karnataka *E-mail: [email protected]

he present study was carried out in the two permanent preservation plots located in tropical wet evergreen forests of Central Western Ghats. The main objective

of the study was to explore the changes in floristic structure and composition in the evergreen forests by using the long-term data from permanent preservation plots. Findings from the present study, clearly indicated that the floristic structure and composition was changing over time i.e. richness of species decreased from 69 to 63 (1937 to 2008) in permanent preservation plot in Makutta and 74 to 67 (1939–1954) in permanent preservation plot in Malemane and again the richness increased in 2008. Similarly, the richness of endemic and threatened species had also changed over time scale. Girth class distribution of stems and species composition of the stands had also changed over time scale. It was also noted that some deciduous species were coming up at the evergreen forests. This change could be attributed to the change in the microclimatic condition. Hence, the study was very important to take conservative steps to minimise such unprecedented changes in the fragile ecosystems for the future.

Keywords: Tropical Wet Evergreen Forests, Permanent Preservation Plots, Floristic Composition

T

271

Comprehensive Documentation Climate-Termites, ITK Indian Context

G.K. Mahapatro* and Debajyoti Chatterjee Division of Entomology, Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi


ndigenous Traditional Knowledge (ITK) refers to the age-old collection of perceptions and application of locally available knowledge which passes on from genera-

tion to generation. In India, climate change is closely associated with termite life cycle, thus holds good importance in the life of different aborigines who use them in their livelihood.

In the present research communication, a comprehensive documentation has been done. A map has been constructed based on different ITKs reported relevant to termites vis-a-vis climate change/interference. The occurrence of termite mounds and their height helps the farmers in forest areas to select land for cultivating tuber and seed crops. In many states like Himachal Pradesh and Rajasthan, the appearance of termite serves as an indicator of rainfall and good climate. Swarming of termites is deeply related to a special climatic condition where the heating unit raises up to an optimum level. Many tribal communities use termite-alates as food (in Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Chhattisgarh, North Eastern states). Agricultural practices also see necessary modification with respect to practised ITKs on termite management. Upland rice suffers termite problem, shifting to short duration varieties of crops thus necessitates shifting the cultivation in uplands which are more prone to vagaries of weather and climate. In Indo-Gangetic plain, late sown wheat varieties suffer more termite problem, which is, again influenced by climate change. Despite such importance, ITKs in termite management remain lesser known aspect and yet to be scientifically validated. In the present era of green management of pests with environment safety, this study is an attempt to lay emphasis on a compilation of ITKs related to termites and their management in the light of climate-interference.

Keywords: Aborigines, Alates, Swarming, Termite Mound, Weather

I

272

Urbanisation and Its Effects on Lizards: A Study from a Climate

Change Perspective Maria Thaker* and Madhura Amdekar

Centre for Ecological Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, Karnataka *E-mail: [email protected]

s ectotherms, lizards are dependent on suitable environmental temperatures for critical physiological processes. Altered and unpredictable patterns of temperature

as well as precipitation, caused by climate change, can adversely affect their distribution and survival. The effects of climate change are compounded by urbanisation, which leads to higher temperatures in the city as compared to less developed surrounding areas (i.e. urban heat island effect).

With support of a research grant from EMPRI, we extensively surveyed the city of Bangalore and its neighbouring areas for the presence, distribution and microhabitat preferences of two agamid lizards, Indian Rock agama (Psammophilus dorsalis) and the common garden lizard (Calotes versicolor), in order to understand the impact of urbanization on these lizards. Using a combination of data on current distribution (measured in the field) and of physiological thermal limits (measured in the laboratory), we determined environmental niche requirements and projected future distribution patterns under prevalent climate models. Microhabitat preferences indicated that the presence of boulders, low vegetation height and suitable soil compaction were important determinants of the high density of lizards. Urban parks that are highly vegetated and lack large boulders and bare soil were not suitable habitats for these species. The temperature tolerance limits of lizards from within the city and those from rural areas differed but were still within the predicted environmental temperature range under prevalent climate change scenarios. Hence at this point, rapid habitat destruction from urbanisation is a more pressing concern for the survival of agamid lizards and not global warming. A concerted effort to provide suitable microhabitats that are well connected will significantly improve the survival probability of this important mesopredator reptile species in and around the city of Bangalore.

Keywords: Urbanisation, Lizard, Distribution, Physiological Thermal Limits, Density

A

273

Overview of Mitigation and Adaptation Policies in India’s INDCs

S.S. Krishnan Centre for Study of Science, Technology and Policy, Bengaluru, Karnataka


ndia’s priority of rural development and poverty alleviation necessitates rapid economic development. It has been recognised that sustainable and inclusive

development is key to this goal. In addition, energy access and affordability, rural livelihoods, food, water and energy security are cornerstones of India and are planning process at the national and state levels. India is vulnerable to climate change due to the potential impacts on agriculture, forests, coastal zones, biodiversity and the energy supply and distribution infrastructure. This paper will provide an overview of the various mitigation and adaptation policies in India in the context of the INDCs, underscoring the urgent need to have robust assessment and analyses leading to robust policy implementation with credible M&V protocols.

Keywords: Sustainable and Inclusive Development, Energy Access, Affordability

I

274

Enteric Methane Emission from Indian Livestock: Quantification and Mitigation

P.K. Malik*, A.P. Kolte, K.T. Poornachandra and R. Bhatta ICAR—National Institute of Animal Nutrition and Physiology, Bengaluru, Karnataka


umen methanogenesis is an obligatory mechanism to remove the fermentation fatal by-products such as H2 and CO2 away from the rumen, but at the same time,

this hydrogenotrophic pathway due to the energy loss (55.6 MJ/kg) in the form of methane appears wasteful process. Thus, there is an urgent need to ameliorate enteric methane emission to significant and achievable levels to protect the environment from the ubiquitous threat of global warming and conserve biological energy for the use of host animals. The evaluation of any approach for efficacy in reducing the methane emission is extremely difficult until the previous emission at farm/region/national level is not known. There is a huge disparity in various estimates for predicting annual enteric methane emission from Indian livestock. Most of the earlier estimates are based on IPCC tier systems to predict methane emission using variables such as dry matter intake and methane emission coefficients. IPCC tier system revealed higher enteric methane emission from Indian livestock.

NIANP has developed an inventory for estimating the state wise enteric methane emission from Indian livestock and also identified the hotspots where urgent intervene- tions are required for minimising the emission at regional and National levels. Our estimate revealed comparatively less enteric than that predicted by other agencies using coefficients based methodologies. Many ameliorative approaches have been developed and evaluated both in vitro and in vivo for methane reduction efficiency. Results from the studies conducted in a series revealed 20–25% reduction in enteric methane emission on the incorporation of plant secondary metabolites containing phyto-sources in animal’s diet at the appropriate level.

Keywords: Enteric Methane Emission, Inventory, Methane Reduction Efficiency, Plant Secondary Metabolites

R

275

Plants bioactive Compounds in Counteracting Oxidative Stress

in Poultry Birds Adarshvijay*, K.T. Poornachandra, H.B. Veeresh,

A. Geethika and Minu R. Varghese Animal Nutrition Division, ICAR-IVRI, Izatnagar, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh


lant Secondary Metabolites (PSM) or plant bioactive compounds are specialised compounds that do not aid in the growth and development of plants directly but

are required for them to survive in its environment. Four major classes of these plant secondary metabolites are alkaloids, glycosides, phenolics and terpenoids. In recent times, these PSMs are gaining attention due to their beneficial effects especially in counteracting oxidative stress. The imbalance of pro-oxidants and the endogenous antioxidant mechanisms in living tissues leads to uncontrolled oxidative damage to cellular components, known as oxidative stress which is detrimental to the body because it can cause damage to the cell constituents thus leading to tissue damage. It can also occur due to dietary factors, such as polyunsaturated fatty acids or oxidised fatty acids representing an oxidative burden to the body through the formation of lipid peroxidation products and also increased consumption of endogenous antioxidants, in particularly vitamin E. In order to counteract this stress various plant secondary metabolites are incorporated in poultry ration. Polyphenolic compounds are one among the plant secondary metabolites that occur in almost all plants, but their distribution at the tissue level and the cellular or subcellular level is not uniform. Recent reports suggest that incorporating these polyphenols can counteract oxidative stress either by increasing plasma and liver concentrations of alpha-tocopherol and directly scavenge Reactive Oxygen Species (ROS) or Reactive Nitrogen Species (RNS) by induction of vitagenes, thereby improving gut health, reduced translocation of pro-inflammatory and pro-oxidative stimuli into the circulation.

Keywords: Plant Bioactive Compounds, Polyphenols, Vitagenes, ROS, RNS

P

276

Probiotics for Combating Production and Health Stress in Animals

N. Aderao Ganesh*, Adarshvijay, A. Geethika and A.M. Khan Division of Animal Nutrition, ICAR—Indian Veterinary Research Institute,

Izatnagar, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh *E-mail: [email protected]

robiotics are being used significantly over the last few decades as a substitute for antibiotics due to the beneficial effects of improved health status, growth rate, feed

conversion efficiency, reduced pathogenic microbial burden and reduction in morbidity and mortality. WHO/FAO have recently defined ‘Probiotics’ as the live microorganisms which when administered regularly inadequate amount confers a health benefit on the host. Although the mechanisms of probiotics action are not well defined but the activity to achieve their role include alteration in intestinal flora, enhancement of growth of non-pathogenic bacteria, suppressing the growth of intestinal pathogens, forming antimicrobial compounds like lactic acid, hydrogen peroxide and bacteriocins, enhancing digestion and utilisation of nutrients. All these beneficial effects are due to advanta- geous alteration of GI tract microbial ecosystem. Probiotics which shows considerable health benefits both on humans and animals have reduced the use of antibiotics since the use of later as feed additive is being responsible for major risk i.e. development of antimicrobial resistance. Recent studies carried out by different authors indicates that probiotics feeding in animals will be a very good strategy to reduce the physiological stress (i.e. weaning), production stress (i.e. acidosis due to increased concentrate feeding for higher production) on animals and to reduce production cost, it also contributes to sustainable livestock industry by green consumerism. So, using probiotics as a feed additive is an easy approach for achieving higher animal production and improve- ing animal health leading to increased profit of livestock farmers.

Keywords: Probiotics, Bacteriocins, Antimicrobial Resistance, Green Consumerism

P

277

Soil-Plant-Animal Health in Changing Climate Situation

H.B. Veeresh*, K.T. Poornachandra, R. Dhinesh Kumar, Adarshvijay and Ajay Singh

Animal Nutrition Division, ICAR-NDRI, Karnal, Haryana *E-mail: [email protected]

here are many opportunities to improve the quality of agricultural soils, leading to higher productivity and better response. Maintaining soil quality is one area

with high potential for addressing both mitigation and adaptation needs. There are efforts to reduce the global warming potential of agriculture by improving nitrogen-use efficiency and increasing carbon storage in soil and plants. Agricultural practices will have to become more efficient in order to reduce the rate of greenhouse gas emissions in meeting rapidly raising future food needs. Agriculture is one of the most vulnerable sectors to climate variability, particularly in dry land, rain-fed areas. Long-term risks to agriculture from climate change are due to extreme weather events combined with an acceleration of warming, glacier retreat sea-level rise, regional changes in mean spring and summer precipitation and increased risk of land degrade- ation. Crop loss from agricultural pests significantly reduces the crop yields. Promoting water conservation in lowland irrigation systems as an adaptation measure requires careful attention to reducing net greenhouse gas emissions. In water-scarce regions, due to reduced fresh water supplies, irrigated agricultural lands would be compelled to utilise marginal water sources, switch cropping patterns towards salt-tolerant crops, conserve water through drip irrigation system and land-based practices that reduce the volume of poor quality water applied to arable land. Effective management in the livestock sector in the changing climate scenario is linked to sustainable land management. Adaptation strategies in the livestock sector include those that reduce heat stress, such as genetic modification, natural and manmade shade structures, and modified feeding strategies. Therefore, proper steps should be taken to restore the climatic conditions towards normalcy thereby protecting soil-plant-animal health.

Keywords: Animal, Soil, Adaptation, Modification

T

278

Enhancing Livestock Fertility under Climate Change Scenario

Sukanta Mondal*, A. Mor, I.J. Reddy, S. Nandi, P.S.P. Gupta and A. Mishra

ICAR—National Institute of Animal Nutrition and Physiology, Adugodi, Bengaluru, Karnataka


limate change has been recognised as the foremost environmental problem of the twenty-first century and has far-reaching consequences for livestock production,

especially in vulnerable parts of the world. Global climate change, with predicted 1.5–5.8°C increases in temperatures by 2100 is likely to cause heat stress which is a threat to animal productivity. Temperature and humidity stress can have significant impacts on animal growth, milk production, estrus expression, oocyte maturation, fertilisation and embryo development. Decreased development of oocytes has been found in cows, sheep and buffaloes which could be caused by heat shock-induced apoptosis and alterations of the chromatin and spindle microtubules. Exposure to heat (39.5–41°C) during the first 48 hr of IVC of bovine zygotes significantly reduced the rate of development to the 8-cell stage at 72 hr of IVC and morular/blastocyst stage at 144 hr of Individually Ventilated Cages (IVC). Early embryos (<8– to 16–cell stage) were more susceptible to heat shock because these embryos are transcriptionally quiescent and are unable to produce protective molecules such as Heat Shock Protein 70 (HSP70) which may enable embryos to tolerate the stress of an abnormal uterine environment. The elevated temperature for the first 12 hr of maturation reduced de novo protein synthesis in bovine oocytes by approximately 40% as compared to controls. The unfavourable effects of heat stress can be mitigated by enhancing thermo-tolerance of oocytes and embryos, using genetic approaches, modifications in physical environment and in nutrition, changes in livestock practices such as diversification and integration of pasture management, livestock and crop production.

Keywords: Climate Change, Heat Stress, Livestock, Heat Shock Protein, Thermo-Tolerance

C

279

Agroforestry as a Climate Change Mitigation and Adaptation

Strategy for Karnataka Indu K. Murthy*, M.H. Swaminath, H.B. Darshan,

G.T. Hegde and Shridhar Patgar Aranya Climate Change Services, Bengaluru, Karnataka


limate change is a global environmental and developmental problem. There are several ways to reduce emissions and enhance carbon accumulation of biomass.

Agroforestry is one such option that provides a unique opportunity to combine the twin objectives of climate change adaptation and mitigation. In the context of climate variability and long-term climate change projected for the state of Karnataka, there is a need for better understanding of the existing agroforestry systems in Karnataka. A study was conducted with the following objectives: to document agroforestry systems in four agro-climatic regions of Karnataka and the biodiversity of species in agroforestry systems, estimate the carbon mitigation potential of identified agroforestry systems and assess the role of agroforestry in adaptation to climate variability and risks.

The study was conducted in four agro-climatic zones of Karnataka. Field ecological and soil studies were conducted on selected farms to assess and estimate the biodiversity, biomass and carbon, considering farm as the unit of study. Further, socio-economic studies were conducted to assess the patterns of adoption of agroforestry, the reasons for adoption and the barriers to agroforestry. The study establishes that agroforestry farms support significant biodiversity and that biomass and carbon are significant across both bund and block plantations. The potential for expanding agroforestry is limited by barriers such as availability of quality seedlings, water availability and lack of awareness and markets. This study thus provides an evidence base that agroforestry systems can sequester significant carbon thereby contributing to climate change mitigation and adaptation.

Keywords: Agroforestry, Biodiversity, Climate Change, Carbon Sequestration, Adapta- tion, Mitigation

C

280

Beat the Heat-Healthy Hospitals, Healthy Planet How Hospitals can Contribute to a

Reduction in Global Warming C.N. Shalini

Department of Community Medicine, M.S. Ramaiah Medical College, Bengaluru, Karnataka


hilosophies connecting health to nature go back to the times of Charaka, Sushruta and Hippocrates, where ideas stressed the importance of harmony with nature and

imitation of nature, to promote health. Over the past few decades, the practice of medical care, particularly in large hospitals is energy and resource intensive enterprises, in the process of advanced treatment. Procurement and use of resources, buildings, transportation and waste disposal, substantially contribute to climate change while inadvertently contributing to respiratory and other diseases. Health care enterprises generate waste, which is toxic and hazardous to health such as persistent organic pollutants (dioxins and furans) and heavy metals such as silver and mercury, etc., The Stockholm Convention and the Minamata Convention are efforts to address these environmental issues. In the interest of a liveable environment, it is the responsibility of the health sector to take steps to reduce its carbon footprint in the form of creating climate-friendly hospitals, the elements of which could be: to reduce hospital energy consumption through efficiency and conservation measures, build “green” hospitals that are responsive to local climate conditions, production of renewable energy onsite, alternative fuels for hospital vehicles, provide sustainably grown local food for staff and patients, waste management by composting, incineration and water conservation by rainwater harvesting, avoid bottled water when safe alternatives exist.

Keywords: Hospitals, Medical Care, Global Warming, Conservation, Carbon Footprint

P

281

Larval Source Management—Best Way to Counter Climate Change Effects on

Mosquito-Borne Diseases S.K. Ghosh*, S.N. Tiwari, U. Sreehari and V.P. Ojha

National Institute of Malaria Research (ICMR), Bengaluru, Karnataka *E-mail: [email protected]

ost of the insect-borne diseases are governed by local ecological and climate- logical conditions, and mosquitoes are one of them. In recent years, Larval

Source Management (LSM) has gained momentum for its possible role in controlling the mosquito abundance at the larval stage. Now, Malaria elimination programme has been launched in India, and LSM needs to be implemented for long term sustenance. It is important to enumerate breeding diversities of all local vector species before launching LSM. The basic structure of LSM lies within the framework of the bioenvironmental control strategy. Among all the bio-control methods, larvivorous fish is widely used. Based on this strategy the present work demonstrated the effectiveness of fish-based Malaria control in Karnataka. Now, there is a need to release fishes in all the potential breeding habitats so that it can play a supportive role in the elimination programme. All such breeding habitats can be enumerated applying digital systems. For the effective management of climate change on mosquito-borne diseases, co-operation and support from the other departments are a pre-requisite to achieving successful implementation.

Keywords: Larval Source Management, Mosquitoes, Malaria, Fish, Bio-Control

M

282

Feeding Value of Hydroponics Green Fodder

H.B. Veeresh*, K.T. Poornachandra, R. Dhinesh Kumar, Ajay Singh and Adarshvijay

Animal Nutrition Division, ICAR-NDRI, Karnal, Haryana *E-mail: [email protected]

or sustainable dairy farming quality, green fodder plays an important role in the productive and reproductive performance of dairy animals. For sustainable dairy

farming quality, green fodder should be fed regularly to the animals. Non-availability of land for fodder production and scarcity of water aggravates the constraints of the sustainable dairy farming. So, in the current situation, using the unused and largely available coastal area for fodder production will ease the pressure on animal feed availability.

Hydroponics is defined as the cultivation of plants with water only without soil. Hydroponics green fodders are known to be nutritionally superior to conventional green fodders for animal feeding. This technology requires no soil and requires very less water. Hydroponics green fodder has the potential health benefits as they are a rich source of antioxidants in the form of β-carotene, vitamin C, E and related trace minerals such as Selenium and Zinc. In addition, sprouted grains which are rich in enzyme and are generally alkaline in nature improves the animal productivity by neutralising acidic conditions. Further, it is a superior source of protein and other nutrients. This method of producing green fodder has many benefits for the farmer, such as low maintenance and less manpower requirement, round the year high-quality green fodder supply and the feed is highly palatable and digestible. The conventionally harvested green fodders consist of cut grass but the hydroponics feed consists of grass along with grain and root. Thus hydroponics fodder production technology can be an alternative to the conventional method of green fodder production.

Keywords: Hydroponics, Nutrient, Animal Feed, Sustainable Dairy Farming

F

283

Application of Green Technology in Agricultural Sector, a Paradigm

over Combating the Global Threat-Climate Change

B.N. Chaitanya1 and R. Asokan2 1Environmental Management and Policy Research Institute, Bengaluru, Karnataka

2Division of Biotechnology, Indian Institute of Horticultural Research, Hesaraghatta Lake (PO), Bengaluru, Karnataka


everal pesticides include Ozone Depleting Chemicals (ODC’s), of which bromide containing chemicals such as Methyl Bromide (MB), used as fumigation agent

against various agricultural pests pose a potential threat to the Ozone layer. Also, application of some of the pesticides such as Organophosphates, Pyrethroids, Endo- sulphon etc., harms beneficial organisms such as honeybees, butterflies and earth- worms. The exploited application of these chemicals created innumerable deleterious effects on human health and also on the environment with loss of biodiversity Upon the forecast of global warming, there is a necessity of implementing Green Technology (GT) viz. RNA interference (RNAi) for sustainable agriculture which facilitates sound agro-ecology without imparting ill effects on nature.

RNAi, also termed as the reverse genetic tool is a sequence and species-specific gene silencing technology elicited by double-stranded RNA (dsRNA). Off target minimised unique dsRNA region is the gold standard for this technology. Target gene silencing is prompted by the administration of custom designed dsRNA to the insect pests through various methods like artificial diet, microinjection, plant transgenic, spray formulations, etc. The efficacy of this technology is reliant on insect species, target genes, mode of delivery, concentrations of dsRNA and frequency of application. We silenced some of the genes and observed that the relative expression was proportional to the concentration of dsRNA resulting in mortality. Implementation of this eco-friendly technology aids in minimising the usage of chemically synthesised pesticides, thus combating global climate change.

Keywords: Ozone Depleting Chemicals, Climate Change, Green Technology, RNAi

S

284

Solar-Powered Eco-Rickshaws and Gadgets for Environment-

Friendly Lifestyle Georgekutty Karianappally

Lifeway Solar Private Limited, Kochi, Kerala E-mail: [email protected]

-bikes and E-rickshaws are already popular in seven states in India and will be the mode of transport in the near future, as it is environment-friendly and economical.

Solar-powered three-wheelers were released in Kerala on August 15, 2016. The three-wheeler has been conceptualised and assembled by Lifeway Solar Private Limited, a Kochi-based enterprise owned by Georgekutty Karianappally. The three-wheeler has a roof which is fitted with solar panels that are 1.5 metres long and 1 metre wide. The vehicle can attain a speed of 40 Km and can run a minimum of 80 Km with a six-hour charging from solar light. The solar roof can get charged while the vehicle is idle in the stand. Promotion of solar auto rickshaw is with the vision to inculcate a culture among people to use renewable energy for day-to-day use so as to reduce carbon dioxide/ monoxide emissions and thereby reducing the carbon footprint on the earth. This project has been cleared by the Transport Commissioner of Kerala. Efforts are also being done to launch e-bikes in Kerala by a company based in Delhi which has obtained clearance from the Transport authorities. A number of innovations in solar power products were made which includes Solar Poultry Incubator, Solar Cow Milking Machine and Solar country Boat and now Solar Hybrid Rickshaws. We are associated with conducting solar energy classes in schools, colleges and NGOs all over India. We also impart training for Self Help Group (SHG) women to assemble and repair gadgets like Solar Lanterns, Solar Poultry Incubators and Home lighting systems and give guidance to individuals planning to power their home/office/factory/godown with solar energy.

Keywords: Solar Energy, Eco-Rickshaw, Carbon Dioxide, Emission, Solar Gadgets

E

285

E-bikes for Reducing Air Pollution in Cities

Mahesha Siddegowda*, Chiranth Shivakumar and H.A. Harish Kumar

Green Wheel Ride, Mysuru, Karnataka *E-mail: [email protected]

he increase in India’s population and income levels has increased the demand for mobility across the length and breadth of the country. The massive growth in

road transportation and an increase in the vehicular population have created serious problems of congestion, poor air quality and a range of other problems which require the development of alternatives to solve the issue of air pollution. E-bikes are amongst the most sustainable modes of mobility which has zero dependence on fossil fuels and zero emissions. In the current situation, where we are concerned about the growing energy, carbon and environmental footprint of transport, it presents a mitigation option that addresses all these concerns. Electric bikes are extremely efficient and emit near zero emissions at the point of use. This could be considered a positive development in most of the cities to battle poor urban air quality as the contribution of transportation-related pollution is steadily increasing. E-bikes or Electric bikes can be defined as two-wheeled vehicles equipped with a traditional bicycle drivetrain but enhanced with an electric motor capable of propelling a bike as fast as 25 Kmph. E-bikes are the most efficient and economical mode of transportation. They are non-polluting and the battery can be charged from solar power also. The following are some of the important features of e-bikes. E-bikes can be charged in less than 3 hours and have a range of 60 Kms per charge. The cost of electricity to charge the battery is less than 2 rupees. The rider can also pedal e-bike to increase the range and achieve better physical fitness. Using lithium-ion battery technology is environmentally friendlier than traditional lead acid battery packs. They also have superior cycle life and occupy less space and are of light weight.

Keywords: E-bikes, Transportation, Urban Air Quality, Zero Emissions

T

286

Impacts of Climate Change on Vulnerable Communities: A Case Study of Karnataka

M. Balasubramanian*¹, M. Deekshith¹, M. Manjunatha² and O.K. Remadevi²

¹Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bengaluru, Karnataka ²Centre for Climate Change, Environmental Management and

Policy Research Institute (EMPRI), Bengaluru, Karnataka *E-mail: [email protected]

ulnerability to climate change differs significantly across regions, communities and even households in many developing countries like India. Vulnerable

communities affected by climate change also face poverty, health disparities and other social inequalities. At the global level, vulnerable communities are highly affected by climate change through effects on food, water and income security. A case study was conducted in Karnataka to assess the impact of climate change on vulnerable communities. The study was based on household surveys in two villages in Karnataka. The methodology is based on Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change 2014 framework for assessing vulnerability to climate change. 122 households were surveyed using structured questionnaires. This study pointed out that in both the study villages; climate change has affected food production, water supply, health and income sources. The details of parameters evaluated are discussed in the paper. It has also been found that there is a lack of climate change adaption mechanism prevalent in both the villages. There is a dire necessity to improve the equitable and efficient distribution of resources to all the affected households.

Keywords: Climate Change, Vulnerable Communities, Assessment, Karnataka

V

287

People Participation in Climate Change: Challenges and Scope with

Respect to India H. Sree Krishna Bharadwaj

National Law School of India University, Nagarbhavi, Bengaluru, Karnataka Email: [email protected]

he ancient Indian Vedic philosophy identifies five basic natural elements as panchmahabhut for stavan, meaning worship. These five basic elements are

water, earth, sun, air and sky. Environmental protection is seen as a fundamental duty of every citizen of this country under Article 51-A (g) of our Constitution which reads as follows: “It shall be the duty of every citizen of India to protect and improve the natural environment including forests, lakes, rivers and wildlife and to have compassion for living creatures”. Article 21 of the Indian Constitution states: ‘No person shall be deprived of his life or personal liberty except according to procedures established by law.’ The Supreme Court through various cases has guaranteed the right to clean environment. The need for energy for various human activities ranging from factories to cooking has been the cause of problems. While other problems include lack of participation in green consumerism, illiteracy, ignorance and lack of understanding over the effects of climate change in the long run.

The paper will explore and analyse the role of human values with respect to the correlation between the right to clean environment and duty to protect the environment along the lines of culture. Public engagement with respect to traditional values and ethos will be inspected. Will self-enhancing values or duty based laws drive people towards the path of greener world is a testable element.

Keywords: Environment Protection, Article 51(A), Clean Environment, Public Engagement

T

288

A Low Carbon Scenario for India and Its Implications for India’s Climate

Pledge and the Global Goal of Limiting Warming to Safe Levels

Rajiv Kumar Chaturvedi Indian Institute of Science, Bengaluru, Karnataka


n this presentation, I would like to introduce a new energy security and climate policy tool for India called India Energy Security Scenarios-2047 (IESS-2047)

tool. The IESS-2047 tool was developed by the erstwhile Planning Commission and later refined by its successor NITI Aayog. A calculator is essentially a tool that can be used to explore the implications of different levels of “effort” or ambitious targets deemed feasible that can be made in selected sectors to move towards more energy efficient outcomes and towards different levels of supply of alternative energy sources. The tool further helps in assessing the implications of these “efforts” in terms of GHG emissions, energy security, land requirements and budgetary implications. In this presentation, we employ the tool to answer some of the crucial climate policy questions for India. We explore an alternative energy and low carbon scenario for India up to 2047 in comparison to business as usual projections. We further explore the implication of the low carbon scenario for meeting India’s INDC targets and India’s role in the global goal of limiting warming to safe levels.

Keywords: Climate, GHG Emissions, IESS-2047, Planning Commission, NITI Aayog

I

289

Behavioural Insights for Scaling Up Renewable Energy Technologies in India

Ulka Kelkar Climate Change Mitigation and Development, Ashoka Trust for Research

in Ecology and the Environment (ATREE), Bengaluru, Karnataka E-mail: [email protected]

enewable energy technologies offer tremendous potential to transition to sustainable energy pathways in Indian cities. Scaling up renewable energy technologies

is usually encouraged by incentives like subsidies to manufacturers and net metering tariffs to consumers. But households do not always respond rationally to such incentives. Instead, they try to make decisions regarding renewable energy based on cost perceptions, liquidity constraints, technical complexity and policy uncertainty. This paper investigates how fundamental biases in human decision-making affect the adoption of renewable energy by urban Indian households.

This paper presents the findings of a household survey in Ramanagara, a small city in southern India. It reveals significant penetration of solar thermal technology, but very low penetration of rooftop solar photovoltaic due to regulatory uncertainty, high capital costs, and information barriers among households and government agencies. Instead of an energy ladder, households display energy stacking behaviour, with co-existence of biomass-based fuels, fossil fuel-based electricity, and renewable energy. This is because affordability is not the only determinant of fuel choice—access, seasonality, convenience, and cultural factors also play roles. This is significant for climate policy because the greenhouse gas mitigation impact of solar energy could be less than anticipated. Moreover, growing urbanisation may reduce access to biomass and increase fossil fuel use as a back-up.

Based on these behavioural insights, the paper presents policy recommendations to maximise the adoption of renewable energy technologies in Indian cities.

Keywords: Biomass-Based Fuels, Fossil Fuel-Based Electricity, Renewable Energy Technology, Solar Thermal Technology, Urban Indian Households

R

290

Green Algae (Anabaena flos-aquae) Toxicity Study for Industrial Wastewater

Pollution in the Freshwater Systems Jaswant Ray1, Amit Kumar2, Pawan K. Bharti3 and B.K. Aggarwal4

1Department of Zoology, Mewar University, Chittorgarh, Rajasthan 2Department of Toxicology, Institute for Industrial Research and Toxicology, Delhi NCR

3Society for Environment Health Awareness of Nutrition and Toxicology, Delhi 4Department of Zoology, SSN College, University of Delhi, Alipur, Delhi


he present study is on the effects of industrial wastes (chemicals and pesticides) on the yield and growth rate of green algae (Anabaena flos-aquae) from the

freshwater system. The industrial wastewater contains pesticides and chemical formulations belonging to the various class and functional groups: organophosphate, pyrethroid-based insecticides, herbicides, fungicides, arsenic, benzene, polymers, etc. The toxicity endpoints of yield (EyC50: 0–72 h) and growth rate (ErC50: 0–72 h) of Anabaena flos-aquae for industrial wastes (both pesticide and chemicals) were determined statistically. The results pointed out that some pesticide and chemicals exhibited higher toxicity to tested algal species, as compared to the corresponding control group. These data thus stress the need for greater care and treatment of wastewater which is to be disposed of water bodies, so as to avoid the effects and contamination of freshwater systems and aquatic ecospecies.

Keywords: Industrial Chemicals, Pesticides, Freshwater, Pollutants, Toxicity, Anabaena flos-aqua

T

291

Checklist of Butterflies Occurring in Green Spaces of Bangalore City

Roshan D. Puranik, S. Sooraj, Deepak Naik, Chaturved Shet, O.K. Remadevi, Ritu Kakkar, Saswati Mishra and K.H. Vinaya Kumar

Environmental Management and Policy Research Institute (EMPRI), Bengaluru, Karnataka


angalore also known as the Garden City of India has a unique characteristic of having many parks and gardens across the city. Since it is uniquely located on

the fringes of the Western and the Eastern Ghats of the southern peninsula, it is home to multiple species of plants and experiences unique weather characteristics. Many exotic flowering and fruiting plants were also planted in large areas in gardens and avenues by the earlier rulers. Due to these special features, it is home to multiple species of butterflies dependent on diverse host plants. The objective of this study was to document the occurrence of butterflies in the green spaces of the city and make a family-wisechecklist of their diversity. Forests, garden and open areas in Gandhi Krishi Vignan Kendra Campus (GKVK), Indian Institute of Science Campus (IISc), Cubbon Park, Lal Bagh Botanical Garden, Doresanipalya Forest Campus and at Bannerghatta National Park and Biological Park were surveyed bimonthly during 2015–2016 to document the diversity of butterflies. The butterflies were identified in the field itself mainly by observing the wing colour and patterns. The photographs of most of the butterflies were taken on site along with the natural habitat on which they were resting. 108 species of butterflies belonging to Hesperiidae (14), Papilionidae (10), Lycaenidae (34), Pieridae (20), Riodinidae (1) and Nymphalidae (29) were documented. The list of butterflies along with the photographs of important species is provided in the paper.

Keywords: Checklist, Butterflies, Green Spaces, Hesperidia, Papilionidae, Lycaenidae, Pieridae, Riodinidae, Nymphalidae

B

292

Phytobiotics—For Organic Designer Meat Production

N. Aderao Ganesh*1, M. Vispute Mayur2, Aadil Majeed Khan1 and Adarshvijay1

1Division of Animal Nutrition, ICAR—Indian Veterinary Research Institute, Izatnagar, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh

2Division of Poultry Science, ICAR—Indian Veterinary Research Institute, Izatnagar, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh *E-mail: [email protected]

ncreasing awareness of consumers towards organic food has led livestock farmers to restrict the use of antibiotics as growth promoters and encourage phytobiotics as

an alternative to antibiotics. Phytobiotics are organic bioactive compounds that are naturally occurring in plants which may affect animal production and health but are not yet established as essential nutrients e.g. oleoresins and essential oils. Use of phytobiotics for high production from animals is becoming very popular nowadays because of similar modes of actions of later (i.e. disruption of the bacterial membrane, penetrate bacteria and reach the inner part of bacteria to kill them) but will not lead to development of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) which will indirectly lead to improved production performance of animals. Several researchers have studied the effect of phytobiotics on animal performance and suggested the use of the same for higher production but data are scarce regarding the use of the same for quality meat production. However, recent studies by several authors have suggested that use of phytobiotics for quality meat (i.e. designer meat) production can be one way for production of same through natural means (i.e. use of phyobiotics), since it has been observed that besides its effect on pathogens, it also alters metabolic pathways (e.g. inhibition of HMG–Co. A reductase—key regulatory enzyme in cholesterol synthesis) and reduce lipid peroxidation (due to enhancement of antioxidant system components) which will ultimately lead to production of high-quality meat. Therefore, phytobiotics can replace antibiotics as a feed additive for organic designer meat production.

Keywords: Designer Meat, Phytobiotics, Organic Meat

I

293

Impact of Climate Change on Livestock Production and Adaptation Strategies

R. Dhinesh Kumar, H.B. Veeresh, K.T. Poornachandra, Adarshvijay* and Ajay Singh

Division of Animal Nutrition, ICAR-NDRI, Karnal, Haryana *E-mail: [email protected]

he climate change impacts are visible all over the world, but India is categorised among the most vulnerable areas. Almost 70% of the livestock in India is owned

by small and marginal farmers and the animals of these poor livestock owners are more vulnerable to climate change and are at greater risk. The Indian livestock sector is increasingly faced with problems relating to environmental or ecological impacts including greenhouse gas emission. Livestock sector which is the backbone of the agrarian economy is vulnerable to climate change. The sharp increase in climate temperature is likely to have a negative impact on the milk production, egg production, growth of broilers, reproduction, and disease of livestock production system in the present as well as in future climate change scenarios. There is a very urgent need to develop various adaptation strategies. The most important adaptation strategies include microenvironment modification, animal feeding and nutritional modification, livestock and poultry, breed improvement, genotype modification and improvement of animal health services. The efforts have to be made not only to reduce emission from livestock sector and industry but also to improve the efficiency of production processes. This will enable us to earn carbon credits for trading in future as livestock, and poultry sector has great potential for employment generation and substantially contributes towards food and nutritional security.

Keywords: Livestock, Disease, Adaptation, Animal Feeding

T

294

Physical Processing of Crop Residue: An Approach for Adaptation

H.B. Veeresh*, K.T. Poornachandra, R. Dhinesh Kumar, Ajay Singh and Adarshvijay

Division of Animal Nutrition, ICAR-NDRI, Karnal, Haryana *E-mail: [email protected]

imiting the effect of climate change is necessary to achieve sustainable livestock production. One of the ways is by modifications in feeding management that

reduce the internal heat load on the animals. The animals use more energy for digestion of poor quality feed, like crop residues and proportionately higher amount of heat per unit feed intake is produced. In some parts of the country, even the simple processing technology like chaffing of fodder which improves the nutrient utilisation and reduces the internal heat load is not practised. This suggests that there is a need to focus on forage particle size when incorporated in complete diets or total mixed ration, as the particle size influence the digestion process, feed intake, uniformity of diet and hence affects the performance of animals. The effective way of utilising the low-grade crop residues is by developing suitable processing technology like chopping, grinding and incorporation of these residues in complete diets. The majority of the studies reported that physical processing of the roughage had increased the dry matter intake and improved the nutrient utilisation. In addition, optimum feed particle size provides a better rumen fermentation medium resulting in more production of volatile fatty acids which is a source of energy in case of ruminants. Another beneficial effect of grinding or pelleting of roughage is that it reduces the methane losses when fed at higher intakes. Hence, there is a need to create awareness among farmers about the simple processing technology that improves the animal performance and reduces heat stress to the animal.

Keywords: Livestock, Feed, Nutrient, Crop Residues

L

295

Effect of Protection of Intact Proteins for Ameliorating Negative Balance

in Ruminants Adarshvijay*, N. Aderao Ganesh, A. Geethika and A.M. Khan

Division of Animal Nutrition, ICAR—Indian Veterinary Research Institute, Izatnagar, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh *E-mail: [email protected]

uminant animal derives their amino acid supply jointly from dietary protein source which escapes rumen degradation and microbial protein that is synthesised in the

rumen. The amount of protein and amino acids that escape from rumen degradation vary greatly among different feeds, depending on their solubility and the rate of passage to the small intestine. To avoid loss of protein as ammonia due to microbial degradation in the rumen, the proteins are protected from microbial degradation which will lead to the undeviating availability of amino acids to animals with the minimum loss as ammonia. Microbial protein synthesis, however, is regulated by the quantity of plant organic matter fermented in the rumen. Rapid and extensive degradation of valuable proteins in the rumen, lead research to develop the concept of protein protection from ruminal degradation with the main objective of enhancing the supply of essential amino acids to the productive animal as well as reduction of nitrogen losses as urea in the urine and thereby ameliorating negative balance of animals. However, recent studies conducted by several authors indicate that use of protected protein will not only help in ameliorating negative balance of ruminants but also contribute to improving production potential, reducing feed cost due to better utilization of the available proteins and reduction in methane (major greenhouse gas from livestock) will ultimately contribute to sustainable livestock production. Therefore, use of protected protein is a very good strategy for ameliorating negative balance in ruminants.

Keywords: Amino Acids, Rumen Degradation, Protein Protection, Ammonia, Methane

R

296

Effect of Climate Changes to the Food and Beverage Sector

Rabin Chandra Paramanik*, B.K. Chikkaswamy, Achinto Paramanik and Hossein Ramzan Nezhad

Department of Life Science, Sigma Bioscience Research Centre, 2nd Stage, Indiranagar, Bengaluru, Karnataka


he effects of climate change on our ecosystems are already severe and widespread, and ensuring food security in the face of climate change is among the most

daunting challenges facing humankind. End hunger, achieve food security and improve nutrition is at the heart of the sustainable development goals. At the same time, climate change is already impacting agriculture and food security and will make the challenge of ending hunger and malnutrition even more difficult. While some of the problems associated with climate change are emerging gradually, the action is urgently needed now in order to allow enough time to build resilience into agricultural production systems. Population and income increase, as well as urbanisation, are driving increased and changing food and feed demand. FAO estimates that to satisfy the growing demand driven by population growth and diet changes, food production will have to increase by atleast 60% in the next decades. The present research paper explores the impact of climate change on the production of wine grapes and wine. It includes a review of the literature on the cause and effects of climate change, as well as illustrations of the specific challenges global warming may bring to the production of wine grapes and wine. More importantly, this research paper provides some of the vital essential practical solutions that the present industry professionals can take to mitigate and adapt to the coming change in both vineyards and wineries in the future course of time.

Keywords: Ecosystem, Nutrition, Food Security, Climate Change, Global Warming, Vineyards, Wineries

T

297

Azolla (Azolla pinnata)—An Alternate Protein Source in Duck Rearing Industry Adarshvijay*, K.T. Poornachandra, H.B. Veeresh, N. Aderao Ganesh,

A.M. Khan, A. Geethika and Minu R. Varghese Division of Animal Nutrition, ICAR—Indian Veterinary Research Institute,

Izatnagar, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh *E-mail: [email protected]

n poultry industry, ducks are among the most efficient in food production and thereby facilitating better utilisation of water and feed resources for generating

food and income for the rural population. Basically to coastal areas, duck rearing ranks next to chicken either for egg or for meat production. Non-availability of good quality feed resources is the main constraint faced by duck rearers. With view of conventional feed ingredients especially protein supplements which are all expensive, necessities these rearers to procure an alternative protein source. Azolla (Azolla pinnata) mainly used as a green manure, is an aquatic floating fern having a symbiotic relationship with blue-green algae, can be easily grown in wild and controlled conditions. Azolla is highly rich in protein (25–35%) when compared to other fodder sources and it is easy and economical to grow which makes Azolla an ideal feed for poultry and to other livestock species like cattle, pig, etc. In addition, Azolla is also rich in other compounds like carotenoids, biopolymers, probiotics, etc. that contribute to the overall increase in performance of birds. It is also having the value as a biofertilizer in wetland paddy field. Azolla as a feed substitute has been worked out by many researchers and suggested that incorporation of Azolla in duck ration helps in improving the growth and production performance and helped in replacing conventional protein sources without causing any deleterious effect in palatability.

Keywords: Azolla, Protein Source, Biopolymer, Duck

I

298

Study on Ecological Value of Mulberry Development

B.K. Chikkaswamy and Rabin Chandra Paramanik Sigma BioScience Research Center, Indira Nagar, Bengaluru, Karnataka

ulberry could be a perennial and deciduous tracheophyte. Mulberry trees have long been cultivated for silkworm rearing. In recent years, the roles of mulberry

trees within the interference and management of the geological process, water and conservation, saline-land management and returning the grain plots to biological science are known. Meanwhile, multi-usage of mulberry as forage for livestock, for fruit and tea preparation has been bit by bit explored. Therefore, associate innovation occurred within the mulberry trade. This text introduces the ecological and economic values of mulberry trees, the applications of mulberry, and also the development of mulberry trade.

Keywords: Mulberry Tree, Ecological Role, Economic Value, Ecological Mulberry Trade

M

299

Impact of Plant-Derived Essential Oils for Livestock Health and Production N. Aderao Ganesh*, Adarshvijay, A. Geethika and A.M. Khan

Division of Animal Nutrition, ICAR—Indian Veterinary Research Institute, Izatnagar, Bareilly, Uttar Pradesh


he essential oil is a complex mixture of concentrated hydrophobic liquid containing volatile aroma compounds from plants. Essential oils are also known

as volatile oils, ethereal oils or simply the name of the plant from which they are extracted (e.g. thymol). Here, essential means “essence”—the characteristic fragrance of the plant from which it is derived and not the indispensable like essential amino acids. Due to major threat of Global warming, significant work is being carried out by agricultural scientists to reduce the Greenhouse gases like CH4 (Methane) emitted from livestock which is a potent greenhouse gas and it has a global warming potential 25 times that of CO2. The well documented antimicrobial activity of essential oils has shown that essential oils can be used to selectively inhibit rumen methanogenesis, and can also be used as a substitute to antibiotics for higher production since it is associated with antimicrobial resistance. Studies carried out by different authors suggests that use of essential oils as a feed additive in monogastric animals and birds leads to improved feed efficiency and health status through the reduced pathogenic load, as essential oils have an adverse effect on E. coli O157: H7, Salmonella sp. and S. aureus. However, use of essential oils as a feed additive in ruminants lead to a reduction in methane production and thereby increased feed efficiency (as methane production accounts for 2–16% of GE losses) which will ultimately lead to sustainable higher production in animals and green consumerism in humans.

Keywords: Essential Oils, Methane, Feed Efficiency, Animal Production

T

300

Water Security Plan for Bengaluru City: Climate Change Adaptation

B.S. Chandrakala, P. Jeya Prakash, V. Sreenivas, K.H. Vinaya Kumar, Saswati Mishra and Ritu Kakkar Centre for Lake Conservation (CLC), EMPRI, Bengaluru, Karnataka


he Bengaluru city is showing unpredicted disturbances in the hydrological cycle in the last few years due to shifting in rainfall frequency, quantum and ground-

water recharge cycle. The study has shown that change in the pattern of the hydrological cycle is very severe and would affect water availability in the coming years. The study here also indicated a very rapid increase in the demand for water due to expansion in urban population and related activities. The temperature, rainfall and the RH (Relative Humidity) were compared to the year 2002 and 2016 and this has revealed that the 0.40ºC of temperature and 7.02% of RH has been increased. Reciprocally, the average rainfall has been reduced by 117.02 mm. The open space in the Bengaluru City has been decreased and this, in turn, has resulted in the rise of the temperature. The study conducted by Centre for Lake Conservation, EMPRI has revealed that out of 280 water bodies in the Bengaluru North Taluk (BBMP jurisdiction) only 74 water bodies are existing and remaining 206 water bodies have changed in their land use pattern due to the urbanisation which has resulted in the changes of Bengaluru microclimate by increasing the temperature. The strategies have been derived from harvesting the high-intensity rainfall in the existing water bodies to maintain the microclimate of Bengaluru City as well as to manage the groundwater scarcity for climate change adaptation.

Keywords: BBMP, Lakes, Rainfall, Temperature, RH, Flood, Drought

T

301

Author Index

A Abhilash, R. ............................................. 84 Adarshvijay ........... 292, 275, 276, 277, 282,

293, 294, 295, 297, 299 Agarwal, Priyanka ................................. 103 Aggarwal, B.K. ...................................... 290 Amdekar, Madhura ................................ 272 Arutchelvan, V. ...................................... 218 Ashwini, G. .............................................. 84 Asif, M. Muhammed ............................. 176 Asokan, R. ............................................. 283

B Bagchi, Sumanta .................................... 267 Bala, Govindasamy .................................. 16 Balasubramanian, M. ............................. 286 Bharadwaj, H. Sree Krishna .................. 287 Bharti, Pawan K. .................................... 290 Bharti, Pawan Kumar ............................ 265 Bhatta, R. ............................................... 274

C Chaitanya, B.N. ..................................... 283 Chakravarthy, A.K. .................................. 61

Chandrakala, B.S. .................................. 300 Chatterjee, Debajyoti ............................. 271 Chaturvedi, Rajiv Kumar ....................... 288 Chikkaswamy, B.K. ....................... 296, 298 Chitra, P. .......................................... 84, 235

D Dandin, S.B. ............................................ 20 Darshan, H.B. ........................................ 279 Deekshith, M. ........................................ 286 Devakumar, A.S. ................................... 163 Devi, K. Anusiya ................................... 256

G Ganesh, N. Aderao ................ 276, 292, 295,

297, 299 Gavaskar, S.S.M. ..................................... 94 Geethika, A. ........... 275, 276, 295, 297, 299

Ghosh, S.K. ........................................... 281 Gopal, Jai ............................................... 262 Gupta, P.S.P. ......................................... 278

H Hegde, G.T. ........................................... 279 Hiremath, Prashanth ................................ 94

J Jacob, Jisha ............................................ 264 Jacob, Vidya Ann .................................. 209 Jailani, Mehboob ................................... 115 Johny, Merin .......................................... 264

K Kakkar, Ritu .......... 122, 135, 235, 291, 300 Kapoor, Neera .......................................... 263 Karianappally, Georgekutty .................. 284 Karthik, M.L. ......................................... 270 Keerthi, N.G. ........................................... 94 Kelkar, Ulka ............................................. 289 Khan, A.M. ............. 276, 292, 295, 297, 299 Khaple, Anil .......................................... 163 Kolte, A.P. ............................................. 274 Koti, Roopadevi ...................................... 84 Krishnan, S.S. ........................................ 273 Kumar, Amit .......................................... 290 Kumar, H.A. Harish .............................. 285 Kumar, K.H. Vinaya .... 122, 135, 235, 291, 300 Kumar, R. Dhinesh ........ 277, 282, 293, 294 Kunhamu, T.K. ...................................... 247 Kunnath, Sara ........................................ 200 Kushalappa, C.G. .................................. 270

L Lakshmikantha, B.P. ............................... 79 Lakshmisha, Arvind .............................. 103 Lekeshmanaswamy, M. ......................... 256

M Mahapatro, G.K. .................................... 271 Malik, P.K. ............................................ 274


Manjunatha, H.C. ................................... 267 Manjunatha, M. ...................... 122, 247, 286 Manoj, Peter .......................................... 115 Mayur, M. Vispute ................................. 292 Mishra, A. .............................................. 278 Mishra, Saswati ..... 122, 135, 235, 291, 300 Mishra, Vijay ......................................... 115 Mohandas, T.V. ..................................... 200 Mondal, Sukanta .................................... 278 Mor, A. .................................................. 278 Morab, Kiranraddi ................................... 84 Muralidharan, M. ................................... 268 Murthy, Indu K. ..................................... 279 Murthy, Karthik ..................................... 267

N Nagendra, Bhargavi ............................... 266 Naik, Deepak ......................................... 291 Namboothri, Naveen .............................. 268 Nandi, S. ................................................ 278 Nezhad, Hossein Ramzan ...................... 296 Nitin, K.S. ................................................ 61 Niveditha, M. ......................................... 247

O Ojha, V.P. .............................................. 281

P Paramanik, Achinto ............................... 296 Paramanik, Rabin Chandra ............ 296, 298 Patgar, Shridhar ..................................... 279 Poornachandra, K.T. ..................... 274, 275,

277, 282, 293, 294, 297 Prabha, Emily .......................................... 94 Prabhu, C.N. ............................................ 94 Prakash, P. Jeya ..................................... 300 Puranik, Roshan D. ........................ 135, 291

R Ramesh, M.K. .......................................... 29 Ramesh, M.N. ........................................ 270 Ravi, K. .................................................. 200 Ray, Jaswant .......................................... 290 Reddy, G.S. Srinivasa .............................. 94 Reddy, I.J. .............................................. 278

Remadevi, O.K. ............. 135, 235, 286, 291 Roy, Papiya ........................................... 122 Roychoudhury, Atun ............................. 218

S Sahay, Mridula ...................................... 181 Sandeep ................................................. 247 Santhoshkumar, A.V. ............................ 247 Sathish, B.N. .......................................... 270 Savale, Siddhartha ................................. 176 Shalini, C.N. .......................................... 280 Shanbhag, Rashmi R. ............................ 130 Shanker, Kartik ...................................... 268 Sharma, Jagmohan ................................ 261 Sharma, Puneet ...................................... 115 Shet, Chaturved ..................................... 291 Shivakumar, Chiranth ............................ 285 Siddegowda, Mahesha ........................... 285 Singh, Ajay ..................... 277, 282, 293, 294 Singh, Pritee .......................................... 262 Sooraj, S. ....................................... 135, 291 Sreehari, U. ............................................ 281 Sreenivas, V. ......................................... 300 Srikantiah, Somashekhar B. .................... 45 Srinath, K. ............................................. 163 Suman, Aastha ......................................... 37 Sundararaj, R. ........................................ 130 Sunil ...................................................... 247 Swaminath, M.H. .................................. 279

T Thaker, Maria ........................................ 272 Tiwari, S.N. ........................................... 281

U Uteng, Tanu Priya ................................. 181

V Varanashi, Sathya Prakash ...................... 24 Varghese, Minu R. ........................ 275, 297 Vasuki, C.A. .......................................... 256 Veeresh, H.B. ....................... 275, 277, 282,

293, 294, 297 Venkataramanan, Gayathri .................... 268 Viswanath, Syam ................................... 270

Inaugurated by Shri. T.M. Vijay Bhaskar, I.A.S. Additional Chief Secretary, Department of Forest, Ecology and Environment, GoK, Smt. Ritu Kakkar, I.F.S. Director General,

EMPRI and Prof. N.H. Ravindranath, Indian Institute of Science

Release of the book ‘Butterflies as Indicators of Climate Change: Baseline Study in Bangalore City’

Key Note Speakers: Prof. N.H. Ravindranath, Indian Institute of Science, Dr. Dandin, Liaison Officer, Bio-Varsity International and

Dr. K.N. Murthy, I.F.S. Additional Principal Chief Conservator of Forests

INAUGURAL SESSION

261

SECTION 5

Photo Gallery

303

PRESENTATION BY PARTICIPANTS

304

PANEL DISCUSSIONS

PRIZE DISTRIBUTION

305

POSTER PRESENTATION

EXHIBITION

306