challenges of the 21st century economy

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The New Hampshire Forum on Higher Education

Recommended Strategy Going Forward

A Report to the Board of GovernorsOctober 30, 2002

Submitted by

Gallagher, Callahan & Gartrell, P.A.Contact: Dr. Lisa K. Shapiro, Chief Economist

www.gcglaw.com

800-528-1181

http://www.gcglaw.com/

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Background Summary of Recommendations Challenges of the 21st Century Economy Forum Strategic Direction Implementation and Next Steps

Overview

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BackgroundBackground

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Background

Mission StatementThe Forum’s mission is to sustain and grow New Hampshire’s prosperity by ensuring a workforce of highly educated and well-trained workers.

Vision Statement New Hampshire is a community where more citizens seek to attend and have affordable access to in-state higher education institutions and continuing education opportunities, and where higher education institutions are recognized for responsively meeting the evolving business demand for well-educated and skilled workers, providing NH with a well-prepared workforce with which to sustain its economy.

Background

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Background

Goals to Achieve Mission and Vision

Access &Access &AffordabilityAffordability

Working Partnerships BetweenWorking Partnerships BetweenBusiness/Colleges/UniversitiesBusiness/Colleges/Universities

Change Attitudes and BehaviorsChange Attitudes and Behaviors

Credible VoiceCredible Voice

Nec

essa

ry R

esou

rces

Nec

essa

ry R

esou

rces

Knowledgeable BoardKnowledgeable Board

Necessary R

esources

Necessary R

esources

Citizens KnowCitizens KnowImportance ofImportance of

Higher EducationHigher Education

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Background

Forum Research

Data Data

ReportsReports

ReportsReports

ReportsReports

Data Data

Data Data

Data Data

StudiesStudies

StudiesStudies

StudiesStudies

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Background Strategic Direction of the Forum

Data/StudiesData/Studies

Action 1Action 1 Data/StudiesData/Studies

Action 2Action 2

Data/StudiesData/Studies

Action 3Action 3

Data/Studies Data/Studies

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Summary of RecommendationsSummary of Recommendations

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Summary of Recommendations Strategic Direction for the Forum

Frame problem as the challenge of the 21st century economy

In this economy, business, education and government must work together more closely to keep pace and stay competitive

The Forum’s strategy is to become the “place” where business, education, and government connect to find new ways to grow, attract and retain knowledgeable workers

Summary of Recommendations

Forum Strategic Direction

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A B

C

Summary of RecommendationsStrategic Direction for the Forum

Forum M

ission

NewNew HighHigh

OldOld LowLow

Eco

nom

yE

cono

my Job S

killsJob S

kills



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A B

C

Summary of Recommendations Strategic Direction for the Forum

AccessibleAccessible& Affordable& Affordable

No Access & No Access & Not AffordableNot Affordable

Hig

her E

ducation

Hig

her E

ducation

Forum M

ission

NewNew

OldOld

Eco

nom

yE

cono

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Summary of Recommendations Strategic Direction of the Forum

Forum has Necessary ResourcesForum has Necessary Resources

Access and AffordabilityAccess and Affordability

Citizens Know Importance of Higher EducationCitizens Know Importance of Higher Education

Working Partnerships betweenWorking Partnerships betweenBusiness/Colleges/UniversitiesBusiness/Colleges/Universities

Change Attitudes and BehaviorsChange Attitudes and Behaviors

Credible VoiceCredible Voice

Knowledgeable BoardKnowledgeable Board



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Strategic Direction

Programs

Policy

Promotion


Power of Partnerships

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Case Statement

Investing in New Hampshire’s Economic Future

Investing in New Hampshire’s Economic FutureStaying competitive in a quickly changing, global economy requires New Hampshire’s higher education institutions and businesses to collaborate in new and innovative ways. The fastest growing sectors in the new economy require highly trained workers with specialized educational and training needs throughout their changing careers – often outside of the traditional classroom. Working closely together, business and education can respond more effectively and efficiently to New Hampshire’s shifting economic needs in ways that allow more people to access learning and the careers of tomorrow.


Case Statement

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The Challenge 7 out of 10 of New Hampshire’s fastest growing jobs over the next 10 years require

a post-secondary degree

Demand for college-educated workers is forecasted to outpace supply nationwide

Mobile workforce creates competition for New Hampshire grads

Fast changing economy requires lifelong learning and training creating older, non-traditional student population

New economy jobs require highly specific training

New Hampshire higher education costs outpace inflation

Declining government resources decrease financial aid


Case Statement

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The New Hampshire Forum on Higher Education – comprised of business, education and public policy leaders – is committed to ensuring a workforce of highly educated and well-trained citizens to sustain New Hampshire’s economic prosperity.

Because the needs of business, higher education and government are increasingly interconnected, the continued vitality of our evolving economy depends on our ability to anticipate future needs. Whether it’s building awareness, creating access to affordable higher education or specialized workforce training, addressing these needs requires new levels of collaboration in an economy driven by information.

The Forum acts as a catalyst to bring together the strengths and assets of educational, business and government entities to facilitate partnerships, share best practices and discover new ways to work together to ensure New Hampshire’s success in the 21st century economy.

Together, we can play a positive and important role in sustaining New Hampshire educational advancement and economic growth.


Case Statement

22

Implementation and Next Steps

Get working partnerships going Engineering/Science/Technology Quality Educators Federal Higher Education Act Reauthorization

Get the Forum message out

Get on and stay on State government leaders’ agenda

Get Forum content up to speed


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Challenges of the 21st Century Economy

What is the Economy Like?

What works in this Economy?

What can the Forum do as a Catalyst?


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Information Drives the Economy

Economic Output Per Worker

$19,404 $26,843

1977Less Money

More Physical Goods

1997More Money

Less Physical Goods

38% more

$Output per worker

5,300 lbs 4,100 lbs

23% LessPounds of Output per Worker


Information Drives the Economy

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Education Fuels the Economy

Growth in Mean Earnings

$74,

361

$92,

507

$58,

294

$48,

263

$38,

238

$36,

242

$30,

324

$24,

279

$38,

427

$87,

575

$106

,840

$72,

297

$59,

485

$40,

404

$40,

209

$33,

110

$25,

474

$45,

034

Total No HS diploma HS Diploma Some College Associate'sDegree

Bachelor'sDegree

Master'sDegree

ProfessionalDegree

DoctoralDegree

1991 2000

17%

5%

9%11% 6%

23%

24%

15%

18%



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Growth in Share of More Highly Educated Workers

2000

20%

9%

13%

29%

19%

10%

1990 Graduate/

Professional Degree

8%

Bachelor's Degree

16%

Associate's Degree

8%

No H.S.Diploma

18%

H.S. Graduate/ Equivalency

32%

Some college,

No Degree

18%

New Hampshire



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Challenges of the 21st Century Economy More Post-Secondary Degrees Are Needed

National Forecast for Workers with College Degrees National Forecast for Workers with College Degrees To Fill New and Replacement Jobs, 2012 To Fill New and Replacement Jobs, 2012

Demand(new graduates needed)

Supply(current degree trends)

18 Million18 Million

12 Million12 Million

Challenges of the 21st Century Economy More Post-Secondary Degrees Are Needed

28


New Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields

Nursing

Registered and Practical Nursing graduates peaked in NH in 1995, at over 1,000, but has since declined to 416

NH is expected to have 599 annual job openings for RNs and LPNs, and another 261 for Nursing Aides

More than half of NH’s practicing nurses were 45 years old or over in 2001

Just as these nurses are retiring, demand for nursing will increase because of the aging population



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Teaching

NH conferred 1.7% fewer Bachelor’s Degrees in education in 2000 than in 1992; the US conferred 0.1% more

NH has about 17,500 educators today and expects at least 820 annual K-12 job openings

As many as 500-700 teachers are projected to retire annually, and the retirement rate is projected to double in the next 5 years

Since 1999, Alternative Certification has increased by 187, and total annual certification has reached 1,696

But not all new teachers get jobs in NH, and 67% are not being certified in critical shortage areas, e.g., math, chemistry, special education, and sciences



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7 out of 10 Occupations in NH with the Fastest Growth Rates Require an Associate's Degree or More

Occupation Projected Growth1998-2008

Computer Support Specialist 87.9%

Systems Analyst 87.4%

Desktop Publishing Specialist 84.4%

Database Administrator 72.6%

Home Health Aide 62.3%

Instructional Coordinator 60.4%

Physician Assistant 59.9%

Computer Engineer 57.1%

Medical Assistant 56.9%

Medical Record Technician 53.3%


7 out of 10 Occupations in NH with the Fastest Growth Rates Require an Associate's Degree or More

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Challenges of the 21st Century Economy Many of the Occupations in NH Adding the Most New

Jobs Do Not Require a Post-Secondary Degree

• 50%-60% of projected job openings require less than an Associate's Degree

Occupation Growth Education / Training

Retail Salespersons 4,025 Short-term on-the-job training

Registered Nurses 3,103 Associate's degree

Cashiers 2,874 Short-term on-the-job training

General Managers & Top Executives 2,699 Work experience plus degree

System Analysts 2,364 Bachelor's Degree

General Office Clerks 1,854 Short-term on-the-job training

Nursing Aides, Orderlies & Attendants 1,747 Short-term on-the-job training

Computer Support Specialists 1,707 Associate's Degree

Teacher Aides, Paraprofessionals 1,682 Short-term on-the-job training

First-line Supervisor of Sales & Related Workers 1,600 Work experience in related occupation

1998-20081998-2008

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Businesses Need Workers with Special Skill Sets

While demand for engineers and technology workers is expected to increase over the medium and long-term, the number of degrees conferred has declined, and even more so in NH. There has been nearly a 31% decline in annual degrees conferred in NH for engineers as compared with a 6% decline nationally

Aggregating across all computer sciences and engineer degrees, NH still lagged the U.S.

NHNH USUS

-2.8%-2.8% +6.2%+6.2%

Growth in Bachelor’s DegreesIn Computer Sciences and Engineering

1995 to 2000


Businesses Need Workers with Special Skill Sets

33

Because there is a decline in “old, stable” industrial jobs, educational institutions, students, and businesses continue to intersect throughout a person’s lifetime


Fast Changing Economy Requires FastChanging Education System

Interaction of Business and Higher EducationInteraction of Business and Higher Education

Old WayOld Way New WayNew Way

Post Secondary Post Secondary EducationEducation

BusinessesBusinesses Post Secondary Post Secondary EducationEducation

BusinessesBusinesses

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The aging population will accelerate the number of non-traditional students pursuing post-secondary degrees


Aging Population

NH Population Growth Rates: 1990-2000 and 2005-2015

1990-2000 2005-2015

Total 11% 7%

0-24 years old 4% 0%

25-64 years old 15% 7%

65+ years old 18% 31%

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On average, college-educated workers have held 4 jobs since graduation, and expect at least one more job change in the future

The percent of adults participating in adult education has increased


Non-Traditional Students

Percent of AdultsWho Participated in Adult Education1

(by age)

1991 1999

16 to 24 yrs old 33.9% 50.7%

25 to 34 yrs old 41.5% 60.3%

35 to 44 yrs old 45.2% 51.7%

45 to 54 yrs old 32.8% 49.5%

54 to 64 yrs old 22.4% 35.2%

65+ yrs old 10.3% 18.7%

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Regional Migration

In Thousands

-298

-228

-120

-43

4

22

43

-1,716

-408

1

NYNJMACTPARIMEVTNH

In Millions

-0.3

0.2

5

-2.7

1

Northeast

Midwest

West

South

Net Population Change By Region

(1990 to 2000 - millions of people)

Net Population ChangeFor Northeast States

(1990 to 2000 - thousands of people)

37


Immigration

Per cent Share of U.S. J obs Fi l led By For eign-Born

10.6%

21.6%

41.1%

16.2%

16.9%

11.7%

14.9%

14.6%

10.7%

23.5%

31.3%

18.2%

13.0%

27.0%

54.5%

20.5%

20.8%

16.4%

21.6%

17.3%

16.3%

32.9%

37.1%

22.1%

T otal

P hysicians

Medical Scientists

Mathematicians & Computer Scientists

Computer P r ogr ammer s

E ngineer s

Col lege T eacher s

Health & Nur sing Aids

Constr uction T r ades

Constr uction Labor er s

P r ivate Household Ser vices

Food Ser vice Wor ker s

1996

2001

38

The trend of positive net-migration into NH continued through 2001


New Hampshire Migration

State In Out Net

California 11,068 10,491 577

Connecticut 11,862 7,314 4,548

Florida 17,494 26,081 -8,587

Maine 23,076 24,364 -1,288

Massachusetts 113,105 66,727 46,378

New York 17,759 11,009 6,750

Vermont 16,846 15,446 1,400

Total for NH 300,326 249,120 51,206

NH Migration, Top States and Total1995 - 2001

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Net migration from MA into NH may slow in the future, as the number of people aged 25-64 years will only grow 3% (2005-2015), down from 9% (1990-2000)

MA is still expected to lose 815,000 people by 2025, one of the largest losses in the country


New Hampshire Migration

40


New Hampshire Post-Secondary Performance

NH has one of the lowest high school completion rates in New England, but has an average rank when compared nationally

NH does a better job at sending its high school freshmen to go on to college

High School to College Rate2002

State Percent Rank

Connecticut 48% 8

Maine 43% 16

Massachusetts 54% 3

New Hampshire 44% 14

Rhode Island 47% 9

Vermont 40% 25

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Challenges of the 21st Century EconomyPost-Secondary Education in New Hampshire

NH growth in post-secondary degrees per capita has been below the national average

Growth in Degrees Per Capita Conferred1990 to 2000

StateAssociate's Degrees

Bachelor's Degrees

Connecticut -12.1% 2.6%

Maine 14.4% 10.5%

Massachusetts -24.5% -7.8%

New Hampshire 8.5% 3.4%

Rhode Island -2.8% -8.5%

Vermont 16.8% -1.1%

US 9.7% 4.1%

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Post-Secondary Education in New Hampshire

But NH produces a large number of graduates per capita

Degrees Conferred Per 1,000 PopulationYR 2000

StateAssociate's

Degrees RankBachelor's Degrees Rank

Connecticut 1.3 47 4.4 29

Maine 1.7 31 4.4 26

Massachusetts 1.7 36 6.7 6

New Hampshire 2.5 13 6.3 8

Rhode Island 3.4 4 8.0 2

Vermont 2.6 12 7.9 3

US 2.0 NA 4.4 NA

And is among the top 5 states with a high percentage of college freshmen from outside of the state

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NH ranks second in the nation for in-state residents who attend college out-of-state


New Hampshire College Student Migration

Percent Rank

Connecticut 43% 5

Maine 39% 6

Massachusetts 28% 15

New Hampshire 50% 2

Rhode Island 33% 10

Vermont 49% 3

Region 36%

U.S. 16%

By State of ResidenceFall 2000

44


Mobility Creates Competition for Graduates

19%

37%45%

High SchoolHigh SchoolDegreeDegree

CollegeCollegeDegreeDegree

AdvancedAdvancedDegreeDegree

Percent of People Nationally Who Move Out of State(by education level)


Mobility Creates Competition for Graduates

45


College Student Migration Patterns

The top 4 reasons why NH high school graduates do not attend USNH:

Major not offered They want to experience a different environment Better academic reputation Not the right location

College graduates migrate to states with: Higher job growth Lower unemployment Higher pay Lower housing costs Better amenities

Price-quality issues

46


Migration Patterns

Nationally, 81% of students who graduate from home state institutions live in their home state after four years, compared to only 52% of those who go out-of-state for their post-secondary education

A 2002 point-in-time query from a NH data base found that 78% of NH students attending NH post-secondary schools remain in NH during the first few years after graduating. after a small decline, this number increases to 91% returning within 16 years after graduation

The query also found that 56% of NH students attending non-NH post-secondary schools returned to NH shortly after graduating; this number steadily increased to 88% returning within 16 years after graduation


Migration Patterns

47


Higher Education Costs Increasing

Nationally, over the last two decades, the cost of attending public and private colleges has grown more rapidly than inflation and faster than family income

In NH, tuition and fees at public four-year colleges and universities increased by 52% over the last decade – the biggest increase in New England - to the highest costs: $5,557

The median family income in NH over the same decade increased by 19%

NH’s tuition and fees at private four-year institutions increased by 17%, to $18,105, which is about average for New England

48


Government Resources are Declining

Recession created State budget deficits

Uncertain, subdued recovery

Fiscal conservatism


Government Resources are Declining

49


Traditional Relationships Disappearing

Mobility

Rapid Change

Lack of Community

Life as Byte-Sized Pieces


Traditional Relationships Disappearing

50


New Economy Requires New Types of Relationships

Listserv, for people with common interests

eBay, for buyers and sellers

Just-in-time inventory management, for businesses

Distance learning, for students and workers

On-line licensing, for government


New Economy Requires New Types of Relationships

51

Forum Strategic DirectionForum Strategic Direction

52


Strategic Partnerships Connect NH Students to NH Businesses

Challenges

Demand for more educated workers High mobility, especially among college

educated Shortages in critical fields Fast-paced changing economy Need for special skill sets Need for continuous education Increasing numbers of non-traditional

students Aging population Immigration Migration Access and Affordability Declining Government Resources

The Benefits of Partnerships

More likely to attend NH schools

More likely to stay in NH

More likely to return to NH

More financial resources to increase access to post-secondary education

Better educational opportunities

Meets the changing educational needs of students and business

Makes NH businesses more competitive


Strategic Partnerships Connect NH Students to NH Businesses

53


The Forum helps businesses: Learn what NH educational institutions offer

Identify opportunities to connect to NH students, their future workforce

Suggest what NH educational institutions should offer

Connect with other businesses that may have shared needs

Develop, attract, and retain well-educated workers to meet their needs


54


The Forum helps educators:

Learn what the NH marketplace needs

Expand opportunities for students

Make their intellectual work relevant to NH businesses

Generate new curriculum and educational approaches


55


The Forum helps government:

Learn about business/higher education partnerships and efforts

Find ways to leverage funds most to help New Hampshire students, institutions, and businesses

Shape public policy to develop, attract, and retain well-educated workers


56

Forum Strategic Direction Examples of Types of Partnerships

Internships

Apprenticeships

Scholarships

Customized Degree Programs

Contract Training/Education

Cooperative Education

Distance Learning

Curriculum Development

Faculty Internships in Business

Executive-On-Loan Appointments

Research Initiatives

Student/Employee Recruitment

College Credit for On-Job Training

Technology Transfer Programs

Industry Advisory Groups

Networking Events

Clearinghouse

Joint Advocacy

Forum Strategic Direction Examples of Types of Partnerships

57

Information gathering and promotion• They exist

• Not well-known nor easily accessible

Expanding existing partnerships Use “third party” Forum to energize and expand

Identifying and developing new opportunities Forum “place” to identify new opportunities


Types of Partnership Activities

58

Implementation and Next StepsImplementation and Next Steps

59


Get working partnerships going Engineering/Science/Technology Quality Educators Federal Higher Education Act Reauthorization

Get the Forum message out

Get on and stay on State government leaders’ agenda

Get Forum content up to speed


60


Wrap up, roll out, implement, measure, quality educator Task Force recommendations (1/03)

Develop/launch/measure initiative to expand engineering/technology connections between business, higher education, and government (Commence work December 2002)

• Identify members of the Board with interest to form a Task Force

• Identify additional industry/education experts and stakeholders

• Supporting research

• Define the work and how to expand existing efforts such as Project Lead The Way and Dual Admissions programs

• Promote, implement, measure


61


Investigate the creation of an industry advisory group in healthcare to expand connections of existing programs and to propose, agree, implement, and measure outcomes (Q1-2003)

Develop a joint advocacy position on Federal re-authorization of the Higher Education Act of 1965 (merit awards, Pell Grants, loan and debt burden issues, performance measures, graduation rates)

• Host discussions

• Policy briefing

• Joint advocacy


62


Refine external promotional materials (Q1-2003)• Evolve talking points and power point presentation (12/03)• Develop Press & Media Kit (12/02)• Finalized 4-page Case Statement (12/02)• Complete Higher Education Economic Impact Study (1/03)• Get on the web

Board of Governors to speak to business, education, and government audiences on need for Forum and actions taken (Q1-2003)

• Board members identify opportunities to speak (2 per member)• Identify 10 key spokespeople willing to become familiar with the

Forum’s talking points and to deliver the message• Complete 30 speaking engagements during Q1-2003• Collect names and ideas to expand partnerships at speaking

engagements


63


Implement media strategy & communications plan (Q1-2003 & beyond)

• Speaking Engagements• Media and Editorial Boards• Radio and TV Talk Shows

Develop/Implement government relations strategy to get on and stay on State government leaders’ agenda (Q4-2002 & beyond )

Host Reception at BAE Systems with Patrick Callan “Measuring Up 2002” (11/13/02) (Attend and Bring a Colleague)

64


Host Legislative Breakfast 1/23/03 – Higher Education Economic Impact Study (Attend and Bring a Colleague)

Build out Forum “members” through speaking engagements, surveys, industry advisory groups, promotional opportunities, web presence (Q1 & Q2 2003)

Create an inventory of existing innovative business/higher education partnerships to include in Forum promotional materials and to promote (Q1-2003) – Request College Presidents/Business Leaders to submit examples based on a Forum template

65


Create user-friendly access to existing partnerships for students, educators, business, and government in New Hampshire (Q2 & Q3 2003)

Showcase one partnership example at the January(?)2003 Governors’ Meeting

Track supply/demand trends to identify areas of opportunity for the Forum to act as a catalyst to increase connections and opportunities

• Survey businesses• Survey educators • Survey best practices• Track labor market data trends


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Sources & NotesInformation Drives the Economy

Source: “10 Driving Principles of the New Economy,” Business 2.0, March 2000.


Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Educational Attainment – Full-Time, Year-Round Workers, 25 Years Old and Over by Mean Earnings and Sex, 2000 Dollars.”

Notes: Nationwide data; “HS Diploma” includes equivalency.


Source: U.S. Census Bureau.

Notes: Residents 25 years old and over.

More Post-Secondary Degrees Are Needed

Source: “Challenges Facing the American Workplace: The American Workplace Report,” Employment Policy Foundation, 2002, Figure 57, at 36.

Notes: “College Degrees” refer to baccalaureate degrees.


Nursing:

Sources: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), “Completions” Surveys; New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, “New Hampshire Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation, Base Year 1998 to Projected Year 2008,” January 2001; “Proposal to US Department of Labor H-1B Technical Skills Training Grant,” Workforce Opportunity Council, April 22, 2002, at 3.

Sources & Notes

67

Sources & NotesNew Hampshire Faces Shortages in Critical Fields Teaching: Sources: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), “Completions” Surveys; New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, “New Hampshire Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation, Base Year 1998 to Projected Year 2008,” January 2001; “Teacher Shortage in NH: A USNH Report and Response, White Paper,” June 19, 2002 at 4; New Hampshire Department of Education, Division of Program Support, Bureau of Credentiality, “New Certificate Issues” and “Number Who Are Employed in Public School,” (Revised Date) September 24, 2002; New Hampshire Retirement System.

7 out of 10 Fastest Growing Occupations in NH Require an Associates Degree or MoreSource: New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, “New Hampshire Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation, Base Year 1998 to Projected Year 2008,” January 2001, at 38.

Many of the Occupations in NH Adding the Most New Jobs Do Not Require a Post-Secondary DegreeSource: New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, “New Hampshire Employment Projections by Industry and Occupation, Base Year 1998 to Projected Year 2008,” January 2001, at 33 and 41; “meeting the Challenge: Higher Education and the New Economy in New Hampshire,” Ross Gittell and Brian Gottlob, February 2001, at 7.Notes: New Hampshire Employment Security, Economic and Labor Market Information Bureau, projects that about 37% of all new jobs created in NH will require at least a two-year college degree, while Gittell and Gottlob believe that 50% of all new jobs will be for college-educated workers, based on their analysis.

Sources & Notes

68

Sources & NotesBusinesses Need Workers with Special Skill SetsSource: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), “Completions” Surveys.

Aging PopulationSource: U.S. Census Bureau, historical population data and “Projections of the Population, By Age and Sex, of States: 1995 to 2025.”

Non-Traditional StudentsSources: U.S. Department of Education; “Lifetime Learning Survey,” George Mason University and the Potomac KnowledgeWay, June 1998; U.S. Department of Education, Office of Educational Research and Improvement, National Center for Education Statistics, Statistical Analysis Report, “Participation Trends and Patterns in Adult Education: 1991 to 1999,” February 2002, Table B3, at 71.Notes: College-educated workers surveyed were aged 30-55 and out of school for at least ten years. Trends in career changes cut across all industries and all kinds of degrees earned. Adult education activities include adult basic education, English as a Second Language course, apprenticeship programs, some programs leading to a formal (typically college) credential, courses taken for work-related reasons, and non-work related courses. Full-time participation in post-secondary credential programs by those aged 16-24 is not counted as an adult education activity. Adults are defined as civilian, non-institutionalized individuals aged 16 or older who are not in elementary or secondary education.

Regional MigrationSource: The Washington Post, “The Northeast’s Shifting Labor Supply,” July 22, 2002 at A3.)

ImmigrationSource: Barron’s, “New Melting Pot,” September 2, 2002, at 17-19, based on Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Sources & Notes

69

Sources & NotesNew Hampshire Migration The trend of…Source: “Economic Perspectives for New England and New Hampshire,” Presentation by Denis Delay to the NH Business & Industry Association, September 25, 2002.

New Hampshire MigrationNet migration… and MA is still…Source: U.S. Census Bureau, “Projections of the Population, By Age and Sex, of States: 1995 to 2025.”

New Hampshire College Student MigrationSource: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, "Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2000 and Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2000," NCES 2002-212, by Laura G. Knapp et al, Table 21.Notes: All First-Time, First-Year Degree / Certificate Seeking Students Enrolled in Title IV Degree-Granting Institutions, by State of Residence: Fall 2000; Ranks reflect the 50 states and the District of Columbia

Mobility Creates Competition for Graduates Source: Kodrzychi, Y.K., “Migration of Recent College Graduates: Evidence of the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth,” New England Economic Review, January/February 2001, at 15. Notes: Percentage reflects all first-time, first-year degree / certificate seeking students enrolled in Title IV degree-granting institutions in the Fall of 2000. Percentages vary depending on whether or not students graduated from high school in the last 12 months and on the type of institution they attend (e.g., private, public, 2-year, 4-year). The NLSY (a project of the US Bureau of Labor Statistics) is based on a nationally representative sample of about 6,000 persons who were 14 to 22 years old in 1979 and were interviewed once a year until 1994 and once every other year thereafter.

Sources & Notes

70

Sources & NotesMigration PatternsSource: The New Hampshire Forum on Higher Education’s Draft Mission Statement, August 9, 2002; New Hampshire Higher Education Assistance Foundation’s Network Migration Report, September 11, 2002 (DRAFT – not yet publicly available).

College Student Migration PatternsSources: Postsecondary Education Opportunity, Senior Survey; Kodrzycki, Yolanda K., “Migration of Recent College Graduates: Evidence from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth,” New England Economic Review, January/February 2001, at 18.

New Hampshire Post-Secondary PerformanceSource: “Measuring Up 2002, the State-by-State Report Card for Higher Education,” The National Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, "State Comparison Results: Raw Scores Participation."Notes: Data in table reflect high school freshmen enrolling in college within 4 years in any state. The rankings reported here are generally representative of how NH ranks in the region and the nation. However, estimates of high school completion rates and college participation rates vary significantly depending on which populations are included in the analyses and which years are looked at. For example, “Measuring Up 2002” found that NH had the lowest public and private high school completion rate of any New England state, at 86%, and ranked 35th nationally, while “Postsecondary Education Opportunity” found that NH had the second lowest public high school completion rate of any New England state, at 74%, and ranked 17th nationally. As another example, “Dashboard Indicators: Higher Education in New Hampshire, Fall 2001" reports that the ratio of college-bound seniors to high school graduates was 82% in 1999, the second highest of any New England state and well above the lowest rate of 64% in Vermont. In comparison, “Postsecondary Education Opportunity” found that NH’s rate of public and private high school graduates going on to college

Sources & Notes

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Sources & NotesNew Hampshire Post-Secondary Performance (Notes continued)was 59%, ranked 23rd nationally, while a survey of NH's graduating high school class of June 2001 found that 71% of those graduating were continuing on to a postsecondary institution. Finally, "Meeting the Challenge" (Gittell and Gottlob) indicates that the percent of NH high school graduates going on to post-secondary institutions is about 66%, described as "average" but lower than NH's economic peer states.

Post-secondary Education in NHNH growth…Sources: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1993 (Table 236) and 2001 (Table 251), based on Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS), "Completions" Survey.

Post-Secondary Education in New HampshireBut NH produces… Source: U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, 1993 (Table 236) and 2001 (Table 257) based on Integrated Postsecondary Education Data Systems (IPEDS) “Completions” Survey; U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics, “Enrollment in Postsecondary Institutions, Fall 2000, and Financial Statistics, Fiscal Year 2000,” National Center for Education Statistics, Digest of Education Statistics 2002-212, Laura G .Knapp et al, Table 21. Notes: Ranked best to worst, 50 states and D.C.

Higher Education Costs Increasing Source: "Losing Ground - A National Status Report on the Affordability of American Higher Education," The National Policy Center for Public Policy and Higher Education, 2002, at 22-30.Notes: All dollar amounts and percentage increases are adjusted for inflation. Figures for annual tuition and fees at public four-year institutions are for 1992 through 2001, those for private four-year institutions are for 1991 through 2000, and those for annual median family income for four-person families are for 1991 through 2000.

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