Challenges of Fire Management: Perspectives from a developing country,

Botswana

Opha Pauline Dube

Visiting Fellow, NCCARF,

Griffith University, Gold Coast Campus

Date: Thursday 25 October, 2012 Time: 3.00pm to 5.00pm Venue: RMIT University Melbourne, Australia

18 deg. S

27 deg. S

• Botswana is within the same latitudinal zone as Australia i.e. the Tropic of Capricorn runs through Australia and Botswana

• The El-Nino Southern Oscillation Phenomenon is an important factor in the climate variability of Botswana as is the case for Australia

(Map:Macmillan, 1994)

Fire is a Global Phenomenon - occurs in most vegetation zones across the world:

• Tropical forests - Brazil, Indonesia, Colombia, Ivory Coast, Thailand, Laos, Nigeria, Peru Philippines, Burma

• Temperate forests - U.S., Europe • Boreal forests - Alaska, Canada, Siberia,

China • Savanna ecosystems - Africa, Brazil,

Australia, Asia

Australia, Amhem land: WRS 104-069, 02/09/86.

The image size is 185 km by 185 km, or ~34,225 km2.

The centre of this scene is 13

2' South, 133

29' East

Landsat MSS data

Active fires on a Normal False colour image

Wild land Fires are part of Hydro-meteorological hazards

• These are hazards that are driven by atmospheric, hydrological or oceanographic processes e.g.:

•Floods, tropical cyclones, thunder/hailstorms, rain & wind storms; drought, wild fires, heat waves, dust storms, cold spells etc

•They may occur as single, sequential or combined events

Fires are seasonal – majority occur over the dry season

Seasonality of Fires

Botswana Fire Events 2002-2008 based on Aqua-Terra

MODIS

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2008 4 17 12 40 75 307 534 6014 10768 5383 1400 72

2007 105 301 1951 118 382 375 516 1023 2574 459 238 28

2006 4 3 0 1 72 316 936 2936 6327 1352 132 362

2005 100 92 128 312 366 361 619 1505 1823 2226 266 9

2004 10 39 3 0 8 41 78 484 1059 1464 547 40

2003 169 78 187 306 412 91 113 842 1621 1235 225 150

2002 349 66 276 888 634 231 2025 1085 3403 3661 943 153

Average 106 85 365 238 278 246 689 1984 3939 2254 536 116

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What we should keep in mind is that:

• There are no Natural Disasters

• What we do have are natural hazards

• Disasters are man-made!

Socioeconomic activities interact with natural climate variations and human-caused climate change to influence (fire) disaster risk

•Disaster Risk: •the likelihood of severe

alterations in the normal

functioning of a

Community/due

to weather or climate (related)

events interacting with

vulnerable social

conditions

•Vulnerability: the predisposition of a

person or group to be

adversely affected

•Exposure: •Presence of people, livelihoods, environmental services and resources etc, in places that could be adversely affected.

IPCC First Joint WGI and WGII SPECIAL REPORT, on climate Extreme (SREX), 2011

Increasing vulnerability, exposure, or severity and frequency of climate related hazards increases disaster risk

Disaster risk management and climate change adaptation can influence the degree to which meteorological hazards translate into impacts and disasters

IPCC First Joint WGI and WGII SPECIAL REPORT, on climate Extreme (SREX), 2011

Land Use Changes in the European Mediterranean

• Socio-economic changes during the last decades are closely reflected in changes in fire occurrence e.g.:

• Rural depopulation is increasing land abandonment and consequently fuel accumulation

• Tourist pressure

• Urbanization in coastal areas

Population in coastal cities 1950-2025, Plan Bleu 2001

Fire at the Wildland Urban Interface (WUI)

• WUI = place where structures and other human development meet wildland or vegetative fuels

• Fire at the WUI becomes a

problem as more people move to the edges of wild places.

• Increasing need to manage

fires at this interface as new roads and increased car ownership offer easier access

Homes in the community of Mountainnaire, Arizona are embedded in dense thickets of Ponderosa Pine

(Courtesy: Chris Justice, UMD)

REUTERS/Yiorgos Karahalis (GREECE 16/08/07)

Dimitris Doudoumis/ICON press 24/08/07)

(AFP/Haris Karamaneas 24/08/07)

Web pictures of the Greece fires: 2007 -Loss of Life & Property, Mass Evacuation. 2009 again Greece witnessed threatening fires

Fire disasters have escalated and cut across various levels of national fire-fighting capacities E.g.:

• Central Russia: August 2010 hot and dry weather: Fires burnt down 1200 homes leaving about 700 dead.

• South eastern Australia: February 2009 fires burned > 2200 km2 :900 houses and killed > 200 people (Liu et al., 2009)

• Greece: August 2007 dry weather >Over 60 people died from bush fire outbreaks

• Large fires have come to be known as Mega Fires i.e. fires that threaten to go beyond human fire management capacity, regardless of the type, kind, or number of fire fighting resources deployed.

• in the U.S. -Mega-fires account for 90% of the area burned and 80% of suppression costs yet they form 1% of all wildfires (Liu et al., 2009).

Developed countries have well-established procedures- physical and human infrastructure for fire suppression to protect lives and property

• As a result fire regimes have been altered: • Suppression of many small, low-intensity fires has led to a

growing accumulation of fuel, resulting in larger and more intense fires over the long term

• Studies pointed to a need for fire policy review in these countries: • Several Developed countries are now using prescribed burning to

reduce fuel loads or leave some fires to burn out where possible

• In contrast in developing countries fire management

structures are poorly resourced even though officially fire suppression policies are adopted – most fires burn with no intervention (Chuvieco et al., 2007)

Economic disaster losses are higher in

developed countries

This was the conclusion from the IPCC First Joint WGI and WGII SPECIAL REPORT, on climate Extreme (SREX), 2011

But how far true is it especially for Africa?

Most disasters in Africa are slow, insidious and go unnoticed/not recorded e.g.

• e.g.: Frequent fires mostly damage natural systems & are not highly publicized

• So are a series of frequent droughts – but eroding household coping capacity, accelerating land degradation

• But because there is no system for valuing ecosystems services e.g. in monetary terms - these not considered losses

• But in the long run the cumulative effect of these invisible erosive events is increased vulnerability of communities affected even to minor exposure to a other hazards

From 1970-2008, over 95% of natural-disaster-related deaths occurred in

developing countries

SREX: Fatalities are higher in

developing countries

19 IPCC First Joint WGI and WGII SPECIAL REPORT, on climate Extreme (SREX), 2011

• A global study on human lives lost to wildfires published 19th Feb, 2012 by Johnston et al., Journal of Environmental Health Perspectives:

• They assessed deaths in areas exposed to heavy smoke and landscape fire between 1997 and 2006 and found that:

• About 339,000 people worldwide were killed by wildfires each year

• Most of those deaths are concentrated in sub-Saharan Africa, where approximately 157,000 people died annually

• Southeast Asia ranked 2nd with 110,000 deaths.

• Developing countries, in particular Africa - suffer a double blow from disasters: both economic and human losses. But economic losses go un-accounted

(UMD)

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Africa is a fire continent due to a climate marked by distinct dry & wet seasons; rhythms of wet & dry years (See e.g. Of Francistown, Botswana,

annual rainfall)

This variability is likely to be enhanced by climate change

•African fires account for ~ 30 to 50% of the total annual biomass burned globally

•~70% of detected forest fires occur in the tropics • 50% of these occur in Africa

Not all fires are bad!

A changing climate leads to changes in climate related hazards such as fires

•Since 1950, extreme hot days and heavy precipitation have become more common globally

•Models project substantial warming in temperature extremes by the end of the 21st century.

•There is likelihood that the frequency of heavy precipitation or the proportion of total rainfall from heavy falls will increase in the 21st century over many areas of the globe – resulting in more fuels to burn!

IPCC First Joint WGI and WGII SPECIAL REPORT, SREX, 2011

HADCM3 climate model projections of changes in a) temperature and b) precipitation for 2050 relative to mean conditions over the 1961 to 1990

period, under the IPCC SRES A2 (high emissions) scenario.

a) b)

Projected climate change in southern Africa

MEA SAfMA Report, 2004

Slightly warmer

Much warmer

Drier

Wetter

2003 country contacts

An open network of southern Africa fire scientists, managers and communicators that has functioned SINCE 2000 over 12 Southern Africa countries.

Country

Contact

Points: 2003

(Slide: David Roy)

Southern Africa Fire

Network (SAFNet)

Pauline Dube:2000-2007

SAFNET originally initiated under GOFC-GOLD

Global Observation of Forest Cover (GOFC)- Global Observation of Landcover Dynamics (GOLD)

Objectives of SAFNet include to:

• i. Promote the use of validated remote sensing and geospatial information in southern Africa

• ii. Facilitate fire-related natural resource management at national, regional and community levels

• iii. Provide a forum for informed communication on fire-related issues within the region and communicate regional fire needs at the international level

• iv. Collate and disseminate regional fire information, data and best practices for field observations Link with existing fire and other appropriate networks.

Community

GOFC/GOLD FIRE and UN Agencies

CSIR Satellite Application

Center

SADC Regional Remote Sensing

Unit

Meteorological Departments

Fire Monitoring / Management

Depts.

NGOs, CBO and Networks etc.

Southern Africa Fire

Network (SAFNet)

Inter-network interactions to meet national priorities

Southern Africa Fire Network meeting – Kruger National Park, South Africa, 2003.

For much of Southern Africa – a re-active fire management

strategy pre-dominates

• According to Santos Virgílio (Angola SAFNet contact point till 2008):

• Obstacles in establishing effective fire management systems include:

• 1. stagnant economies, poverty, political conflicts as a result: – There is no room for long-term planning as everything is needed

for yesterday -hence the joke “time is always against the Africans”.

• 2. Land tenure, e.g. communal tenure systems found in most countries, where “land belongs to nobody and/or to everybody, so who cares when problems happen”.

• 3. An illusion that fire is not a problem in Africa because of the abundant vegetation.

Status of fire management in the region

• Although changes have been occurring since 2000 i.e. there is now a SADC Fire protocol but:

• For most countries work is still ongoing to establish a fire policy and strategy – than the uncoordinated pieces of legislation found under different departments

• Fire suppression policies inherited from colonial regimes dominate with no clear scientific basis

– Law enforcement has not been successful

– Even then this policy has in most cases served to alienate those who use and suffer from fire outbreaks e.g. rural communities

Most fires occur in rural areas

• Fires burn in: – Managed areas - Communal areas & or private

farms – Protected areas - National Parks, game

reserves *Some of these fires are trans-boundary.

Others argue: Adverse reactions tend to dominate public perceptions of fire –

e.g.

• Forestry officials -damage to plantations & woodlands

• Agricultural officers - loss of herbage

• Protection services -threat to human life & property

• Climate change – green house emissions

- We forget positive aspects of fire e.g.: Ecological & land use management needs of fire and this may be affecting the process of fire management

Public messages about fire are generally negative. Positive or balanced messages are much rarer

(A slide: Mozambique presentation: SAFNet, 2004 meeting, Malawi.

Malawi Forestry Department

Time magazine Shenandoah National Park, USA

Fire and evolution of our food: Nearly all major cereal food plants & our major domestic livestock came from fire environments

• E.g. Cereals fall under grasses & were developed from fire-adapted grasses

• Fire promoted growth of favored foods e.g. wild rice, cassava, sunflowers

• It stimulates reeds e.g. For making baskets e.g. to process & store grain

• It drives off insects and other pests

• Fires of different temperatures have been used to foster or control different kinds of plants

Source -Pine, S. J., World Fire

For majority in Africa Fire and life are inseparable!

(Courtesy, M. B. M. Sekhwela)

(Courtesy, M. B. M. Sekhwela)

(Courtesy, B. Nduna)

Fire and Clearing of vegetation

In Botswana poverty is particularly pronounced

• Among Remote Area dwellers – mostly

indigenous Basarwa and Bakgalagadi people in western parts – For them fire is integral part of their livelihood i.e. is

part of hunting

• Pastoralists also burn to stimulate new growth or control ticks

E.g. of a fire losses linked to land use related fires: Zimbabwe damage on crops(2007):

• 210 tones of shelled maize - enough to feed at least 28 000 people in a month and 20 hectares of wheat, were reduced to ashes

• - after an uncontrolled fire believed to

have been started by mice hunters spread to Athlone Farm.

• (Published by the government of Zimbabwe )

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Freehold State WMA Commercial Communal

E.G.: Kgalagadi District 1966(1), 1979(2) and 2001(3)

Fire management has not adequately addressed fire needs of the different users under different land tenure systems

Lapologang Magole, BGCC Symposium, 2012

Area Fire Affected per Land Use and Hectares

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Game Reserves

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National Parks

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areas

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Quarantine camp

TGLP Ranches

Hoffmann et al. - 7th SAFNet meeting, Caprivi, Namibia, 2008)

Prescribed burning for land users in communal areas is not provided for – But this is where majority reside, traditional practices are practiced and poverty is widespread

(Photo by Trollope)

Fuel fragmentation/ use of prescribed burning as part of fire disaster prevention is limited partly due to: • Limited skills & capacity in fire fighting • Scanty information on ecological effects • Unpredictable rainfall patterns i.e. generating need to conserve all vegetation at all cost

But communities in communal areas do burn anyway

Rural communities are usually the first victims of fire

Communities need to be Positively engaged in fire management

Despite emphasis on fire suppression

• Botswana is ill-equipped for fire fighting

• Both in terms of equipment

– E.g. No protective clothing, inadequate

fire fighting equipment

• And skilled manpower – The NSW Rural Fire Service (NSWRFS) is assisting i.e. over 650 trainees have graduated so far!

(Courtesy: Trollope)

Fire fighting is proving to be a very expensive exercise internationally – it is also an industry

• USA: A decade ago -California spent $44 million to fight fires for an entire year.

• In contrast by July 2009 year alone $285 million had already been spent on fire

• Nationwide US fires burned more than 9m million acres in 2008, costing the US federal government $1.4 billion.

–Despite all this fire still burns

• The cost noted here are far beyond reach for Sub-Sahara Africa

• Careful consideration is needed as Africa seeks the best approach to fire management in the light of climate change and changing human activity

Fire break network of ~ 10 000km/20m

(Slide, DFRR-Mafoko, 2009)

Millions of Pula are spent clearing fire breaks – usually outsourced to private companies

Fires spreading along and crossing fire breaks

More expenses required to re-design fire breaks

Fire breaks designed with no consideration of fire behavior

Maps, DFRR outputs

Law enforcement is weak and causes of fire are rarely investigated

• Herbage Preservation (Prevention of Fires) Act, 1978:

• Owner or user of property to safeguard it by constructing and maintaining firebreaks

• Power to request assistance in putting out fires – its illegal not to comply when requested;

• establishment of Committees to prohibit the burning of vegetation

Additional Legislation is needed e.g. • to cover legitimate fire land users especially in communal areas to use fire • Restricted burning in periods of high fire risk • Facilitate fuel fragmentation to reduce fire risk e.g. fire escaping from one land use/tenure systems to another .

• Nearly all fire outbreaks are reported by communities

• But communities are reluctant to provide names of those who caused a fire

Assessment of fire damage – burnt scars: • A change from visual /subjective approaches to

use of geospatial technology is now on:

AMESD political framework

• A continental wide, pan-african project for the development of geoinformation services

African Union Commission

European Union Commission 9th EDF

5 Regional Economic Communities CEMAC, ECOWAS, IGAD, IOC, SADC

+ ACP Secretariat

International partners (Eumetsat, JRC, WMO, UNEP, UNECA,

FAO)

African Monitoring of the Environment for Sustainable Development - 2007-2013

Budget: 21 M€

Data access through Eumetcast and Internet

Through GEOSS, by means of GEONETCast, data has come within reach of users anywhere on the globe

AMESD-SADC: Contributing to enhancing building adaptation capacity in Southern Africa

The Purpose:

primary purpose of

the AMESD-

SADC Project:

to empower

the region and

its member

states to

manage their

agricultural

and

environmental

resources in a

sustainable

way.

AMESD SADC THEMA core services: Fire,[UB] Agriculture [BCA] and Drought. [UZ]Product developers include; BDMS, South Africa CSIR-MERAKA

and SAWS \ITC- Holland

for Distance learning in basic of Remote Sensing

Example of Lecture material produced under AMESD:

• Lecture Coverage

• Introduction – drivers of fire and fire management

• Climate and fire

• Fire Danger and fire forecasting

• Fire risk assessment

AMESD Practical: MODIS Fire Intensity classification for Malawi in 2008 by AFIS system

•Each point is assigned a class based on the FRP value On the right - variation in intensity within land covers is shown.

AMESD Practical: AFIS based Fire intensity class per

land cover - Malawi

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Botswana Fire Events 2002 - 2007 based on Aqua - Terra MODIS

Total number of Fire Events 14655 5430 3781 7833 12442 8070 11665

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008

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Slide, DFRR, 2009)

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District

Fire Affected Area per District in 2006, 2007 and 2008

2006 2007 2008

2006 803,070 771,400 1,428,153 665,520 3,280 74,427 1,929,956 32,955 5,350 2,090

2007 56,820 309,390 1,109,580 738,995 0 167,010 854,680 1,070 0 58,620

2008 1,460,431 683,599 5,241,479 397,478 111,452 1,287,104 2,565,514 1,910 9,888 87,933

Central Chobe Ghanzi Kgalagadi Kgatleng Kweneng Ngamiland North East South East Southern

Hectares

Hecta

res

Slide, DFRR, 2009)

•There is need however, for fire damage to be expressed in economic terms-monetary value

Fire damage - whole country:1991-2001

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GOATS

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• Even total money spent on fire after each season is required to help evaluate the management approach

Data: From DFRR

Botswana fire approach is inclined strongly towards fire suppression

• But majority still need to use fire and this has

– Alienating fire users from fire management

• This plus the generally dis-empowered rural management systems has led to

• Unaccounted and uncoordinated burning:

– When & where do different land users burn e.g. fire timing needs of grass cutters (Women!) versus those of hunters/Safari Cos. Or pastoralists (Men!)

– Complete disregard of fire timing with respect to ecological needs

An Integrated National Wildland Fire Management Strategy for Botswana has been proposed through the National Disaster Management Technical Committee

• The strategy is based on Botswana Forest Policy veld fire management objective 5.2.1

• “To provide an integrated wildland fire management approach that will enhance the fire management capacity, promote biodiversity and ecosystem integrity, enhance human health and safety, and promote social cultural and economic benefits.”

• Mission statement of the fire strategy:

• To promote biodiversity and ecosystem integrity through an integrated wildland fire management strategy that provides for controlled use of fire as an ecological process and a land use management tool, effective prevention of uncontrolled fires and calculated suppression of escaped fires coupled with accurate fire damage assessment and recovery measures.

• One of the aims of the strategy is:

To facilitate greater accountability in wildland fire management by the various users and beneficiaries of Botswana’s land resources

PREVENTION OF UN-CONTROLLED FIRES

Build Community Participation structures: i. Community Fire Associations ii. Fire Volunteer Units

Design Binding guidelines for Fire Safe Rural Properties

Introduce a Fire Levy

Part II. Fuel Driven Fire Prevention

Guidelines for fuel manipulation: Break fuel between land use/tenure types; within same land use/tenure and reduce cross-border fire risk Train in prescribed burning

Part I. Ignition Sources Driven Fire Prevention

Categorize ignitions

i. Legitimate land uses ii. Miscellaneous ignitions

e.g. Arson, carelessness etc

Design Tailor Made Fire Safety Education and Training for Different categories of Igniters

Aim: Entrust communities with greater responsibility in fire management Have Government assuming more of facilitation and regulatory role in fire management.

Prevention: Consider a rewarding system:

• To reinforce fire risk reduction behavior

• How? Is the difficult question. • Eg.: • Tourists or veld products harvesters could be

rewarded for not causing a fire • Those reporting offenders also needs some reward

even just recognition • Farmers and other land users could be rewarded by

being assisted/trained to burn appropriately when they need to burn for their land use management

The Challenge of Fire Prevention

• How do we evaluate its success to justify resources used?

• How do you prove that damage was truly avoided and suppression costs reduced?

• Can you provide statistics on how many fires were prevented that would have occurred ?

• The best approach is to acknowledge that fire prevention and fire suppression are complementary – none is a substitute

• ** Perhaps the Australian aid in the form of training in fire suppression should also have a significant section on prevention

CALCULATED FIRE SUPPRESSION

Fire Readiness & Fire alert; • Guidelines on which fire to suppress • Allocation of Leadership & Resources • Dispatching

Fire fighting • Situation analysis • Fighting Tactics, crew allocation

• Fire spread alertness, • communication & tactic review

FIRE DAMAGE AND RECOVERY

Damage Assessment: • Post-fire report- Ground and satellite based • Losses in monetary terms

Rehabilitation & Restoration:

• Ecological recovery

• Fire Relief Fund

The strategy also includes Fire suppression, Damage and Recovery

Fire Monitoring, Research and Training:

Long and short tern fire risk assessment

Enhance local capacity for fire research, monitoring & training

Enhance supporting legislation.

Fire Levy

Burning restrictions

Binding Fire safety Measures

Bilateral Agreements

Government Coordination:

Fire Division i. District Fire Offices

ii. Fire Brigades – Career fire fighters and Community Fire Volunteer Units

Law Enforcement Financial resources and Emergence Fire Fund human resources etc

ENABLING / FACILITATING AN INTEGRATED FIRE STRATEGY

BOTSWANA FOREST POLICY, 2011

To drive the strategy we need:

• Organizational /management framework and infrastructure

– At government and community level

• Human labour

– skilled, semi and unskilled

• Sustainable resources

• Up to date information packaged for policy & users

Un-skilled labour is abundant to constitutes fire volunteers

• But first there is need acknowledge the reality i.e. that:

• Communities have increasingly come to view their labour as commodity and there is also rising awareness of their rights & ways to influence Government

• Attractive packages are required to access and utilize available e.g. un-skilled labor as volunteers under communal land tenure system

• Fire volunteers are the backbone of fire management worldwide

• e.g. in USA 80% of fires are tackled by volunteers saving the country 37billions in salary funding etc

Economic growth is a testimony of the capital embodied in Botswana’s natural resources

• Part of this capital should be availed for management of these resources

•

• Mining – diamonds Tourism

• A fire management fund can be established i.e.

through a fire levy to complement normal government funding

Innovation

Monitoring

Evaluation

Learning

Managing risks of disasters in a changing climate e.g. as in fire risks will benefit from an interactive approach

• The most effective strategies offer benefits in the relatively near term while reducing vulnerability over the longer term

IPCC First Joint WGI and WGII SPECIAL REPORT, SREX, 2011

Proposal from the University of Botswana is to establish: A Global Environmental Change Center with a Fire component

• The center

• To be integrative – capture the multiple and dynamic variables influencing fires -spanning from the global, regional to national scale

• A platform for initiating collaborative applied and cutting edge research on fire; attracting internal and external funding

• Stimulate development of diploma to post graduate programmes .

• Provide rapid in-service training and outreach fire prevention information packages e.g. schools, fire land users

• Link with Fire Bridges e.g. contribute in ongoing training in fire suppression

• Offer service to the private sector or NGO.

Thank You

For Your Attention!