Challenges and Needs in Research Challenges and Needs in Research Views of Japan

-emerging challenges and policy needs-

Hiroki KondoAdvisor to

the Ministry of Education, Culture, Sports, Science and Technology (MEXT), Japan

Dialogue on Research in SBSTA32 (3 June 2010 ）

Prioritized Subjects as research needsin climate change research area

• Selected important subjects in climate change research area under Environment

　　　―　 　 SatelliteSatellite observationobservation of greenhouse gases and land

surface layer GOSAT GOSAT (launched in 2009), etc. (= Global Greenhouse Gas Observation by Satellite)

　　　―　 Climate change projection Climate change projection for 21for 21stst century by climate century by climate modelingmodeling　　　　　　（ Science & technology to project climate change in the 21st

century by using the supercomputer as a sound base for Post-Kyoto policy)

　　　 ―　 Climate change risk assessment & adaptationClimate change risk assessment & adaptation, and the scenarios and pathways toward low carbon societies　　　　　• Besides National Core Technology ： ― 　 Next generation supercomputerNext generation supercomputer　　　 ―　 Observation and Ocean Exploration System （ including Data Data Integration and Analysis SystemIntegration and Analysis System （（ DIAS)DIAS) ）、

“Warming of the climate system is unequivocalunequivocal, ….”

“Most of the observed increase in globally averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likelyvery likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic greenhouse gas concentrations12.” 1212 Consideration of Consideration of remaining uncertaintyremaining uncertainty is based on current methodologies. is based on current methodologies.

““Cloud feedbacks remain the largest source of uncertaintythe largest source of uncertainty.”

“Assessed upper ranges for temperature projections are larger than in the TAR (see Table SPM-3) mainly because the broader range of models now available suggests stronger climate-carbon cycle feed backsstronger climate-carbon cycle feed backs.”

“It is very likelyvery likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events will continue to become more frequent.”　　・・・・・・・・・・・・・　　　　　　　　 Strong concerns about global warming and its Strong concerns about global warming and its impactsimpacts on natural disasters, in particular,on natural disasters, in particular, from policy makersfrom policy makers

Increasing challengesIncreasing challenges for further reliable projection for further reliable projection

Research Challenges from the IPCC/WG1/ AR4

Better simulation of physical and biogeochemical

processes sufficiently reflecting feedbacks

A) Advancing climate modeling and projectionAdvancing climate modeling and projection

Addressing uncertainties in climate model projection B) Quantification and reduction of uncertaintyQuantification and reduction of uncertainty

Impact assessment on natural disasters by extreme events through sufficiently high resolution projection

C) Application of regional projection to natural Application of regional projection to natural disastersdisasters

Research challenges related to climate change projection to be addressed

Research needs for policy andprojection targets to meet them

Needs of better scientific basis for long-term stability issues in mitigation, etc. Long-term global environmental projection using an earth system model Needs of climate information in the near future for adaptation and other policy measures Near-term climate projection (or prediction) using a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM Needs of regionally detail projection of extremes for

regionally reliable adaptation in vulnerable countries Projection of extremes in the future using a super-high resolution atmospheric model Related areas to be coordinated: Advanced Re-analysis system for model verification

Contribution to IPCC AR5Scientific Basis for Policymakers

Contribution to IPCC AR5Scientific Basis for Policymakers

Long-Term Global Change Projection (~2300)

Climate change projectionClimate change projection using theusing the Earth SimulatorEarth Simulator (ES)(ES)

Advancing Climate Modeling

and Projection

Quantification and reduction of uncertainty

Application of Regional Projections to Natural Disasters

Near-Term Climate Prediction (20~30 years prediction)

Extreme Event Projection (Typhoons, Hurricanes, Heavy rain,

etc.)

Cloud Resolvable Modeling

Parameterization of Marine Microphysics

Ongoing Coordination to address challenges and needs in research (Japan)

Impact

Assessment

Studies

(MOE)

(MEXT)Close

Coordination

Adaptation Studies

Model output

climate change projection outcomes with finer temporal and spatial

resolution with

Impact, Adaptation and Vulnerability (IAV)

studiesand then specifically with

risk assessment and adaptation

and scenarios and pathways toward low

carbon societiesat local and regional levels

Increasing needs for closer coordination

Theme 1Study on finer resolution qualitative assessment of climate change impacts in Japan at the national and local levels

Fine resolution climate prediction

Contribution to policy making processes

Theme 2Study on adaptation policy measures to be mainstreamed into local government development policies

Theme 3Study on indicators for vulnerability assessment and measuring the effect of adaptation in developing countries

Quantitative assessment of climate change impacts at the national and local levels Development of impact assessment and adaptation policy tools for local governments and

developing countriesContributions to IPCC AR5 and other international initiatives

AP Adaptation Network

New　research　project　on　impact　and　adaptation　(FY2010　–　2014)

HealthDisasterFood Forest

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