challenges and lessons learned in communicating weather and climate uncertainty · 2016-04-15 · a...
TRANSCRIPT
Challenges and
lessons learned in
communicating
weather and
climate uncertainty
Jason Samenow,
Capital Weather Gang – The Washington Post April 15, 2016
• Washington Post’s weather team • One full-time managing editor, one deputy editor • 20 outside freelance contributors • Content spans print, web, mobile devices,
includes radio hits & video • Broad mix of content
– Local forecasts and commentary
– National and international weather stories
– Weather photography, history, astronomy, space weather, weather policy, climate change & more
• Emphasis – Helping people make weather-based decisions
– Engagement
http://www.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang
About the Capital Weather Gang
@capitalweather
on Twitter
Lesson learned: Qualities of successful
science communication
• Credibility
• Legitimacy
• Salience
• Good story telling
Challenge: Capturing reader attention
• Headline and lead in to any discussion needs to be strongest, most compelling – Newspaper readers read 56% of the headlines, but only 13% of
the stories are at least half-read. (Joe Romm, Language Intelligence)
• Stories w/ boring headlines become irrelevant; nuance doesn’t sell and not enough characters for it
• Perceived click bait, sensationalism can backfire
• Objective: Find the right balance
Some lessons learned: Effective weather communication
• Confidence levels in forecasts
• Scenarios for complex, high impact events
• Compelling visuals
• Specifics on timing, location
• Accountability
• Learn by doing, seek feedback
•High: Bank on it.
•Medium-High: Overall forecast is sound,
but minor variations are possible.
•Medium: We think we’re on the right track,
but the forecast details are still taking
shape.
•Low-Medium: This is our best guess, but
don’t hold us to it.
•Low: Crapshoot.
Confidence levels
A bad forecast for a high impact storm can be devastating for consumer trust
“Never has there been an industry which spends so much time churning out so much bull”
“ I can tell you that weather predictions have always been a standing joke. It's all a scam to increase ratings on the weather shows, and to reward advertisers”
“As far as I am concerned, all of our local meteorologist should be fired for cause. Why? Because they are wrong more often than right and costs us big money.”
From: Snowquester: when forecast information fails
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/snowquester-when-forecast-information-
fails/2013/03/07/5d0d77ae-873b-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html
But readers also told us they’d welcome more honesty, uncertainty, probabilistic information
Brad Panovich, WCNC
The best forecast for
Snowquester was one we could
not issue with a straight face, and
one most Washingtonians would
have ridiculed: Rain, sleet, and/or
snow likely - heavy at times - with
snow accumulations of 0-14
inches.
“Yes. Why not? The rain/snow line will be
wobbling all over so that's all you can say.
If it's the best, it's the best. Say that, and
then give your probabilities. ”
“What does ridicule have to do with it? I
support the CWG, but this business about
how meteorologists have to depart from
truth and accuracy because they're
worried about their popularity ratings I
don't understand. Are they scientists or
entertainers?”
From: Snowquester: when forecast
information fails
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap
ital-weather-gang/post/snowquester-
when-forecast-information-
fails/2013/03/07/5d0d77ae-873b-11e2-
9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html
5-7 days out
Provide general level sense of what could
happen
“Although a historic storm is a possibility, the
storm could deliver just a glancing blow or even
miss the East Coast entirely. And for residents
of the mid-Atlantic (including Washington, D.C.
and points further south), a direct hit is not
particularly likely although it cannot be ruled
out.
“Residents of the Northeast, perhaps, should
be most concerned. The European model -
which did the best job simulating hurricane
Isaac’s track in late August - delivers a
devastating blow from central New Jersey to
southern New England (including New York
City)”
(http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-
gang/post/tropical-storm-sandy-scenarios-northeast-smash-or-out-to-
sea-most-likely/2012/10/23/29e6f7ce-1d41-11e2-9cd5-
b55c38388962_blog.html)
4 days out:
Communicate 4 scenarios SCENARIO 1 - NJ TO Long Island landfall: Indirect
hit, major impacts [for DC] (45 percent chance)
SCENARIO 2 - Mid-Atlantic landfall: Worst case –
direct hit, severe impacts (30 percent chance)
SCENARIO 3 – New England landfall: Glancing blow,
minor impacts (20 percent chance)
SCENARIO 4 – Out to sea: FEW IMPACTS (5 percent
chance)
(http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-
gang/post/hurricane-sandy-scenarios-for-washington-
dc/2012/10/25/0ebdb0f2-1ec5-11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html)
3 days out
Communicate 3 scenarios SCENARIO 1 - Landfall from Virginia
Beach to the Delmarva: Worst case
(1 in 3 chance)
SCENARIO 2 – Landfall over south
Jersey: Almost direct hit (1 in 3
chance)
SCENARIO 3 - Landfall between
northern New Jersey and southern
New England: Indirect hit (1 in 3
chance)
(http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-
weather-gang/post/washington-dc-will-not-
escape-hurricane-sandy-latest-storm-
scenarios/2012/10/26/19a6c5b8-1f8c-11e2-
9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html)
2 days out
Communicate 2 scenarios SCENARIO 1- Landfall from northern
Delmarva to northern New Jersey: Near
direct hit (70 percent chance, very bad
case)
SCENARIO 2 - Landfall from southern to
central Delmarva: Direct hit (30 percent
chance, worst case)
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-
gang/post/washington-dc-braces-for-hurricane-sandy-the-
bad-and-the-ugly-storm-scenarios/2012/10/27/f7f9abde-2052-
11e2-9cd5-b55c38388962_blog.html
The day before
Detailed deterministic forecast
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/hurricane-sandy-and-washington-dc-
detailed-storm-timeline-maps-and-frequent-questions/2012/10/28/2c24af1a-2127-11e2-ac85-
e669876c6a24_blog.html
Challenge: The armchair
meteorologist problem • Social media gives everyone a voice, irrespective of
credentials
• High school kids, weather amateurs, (pros too) can
misuse, misinterpret model and push out unreliable info
that spreads virally
What should digital and
broadcast meteorologists do? Confront? Ignore? Engage constructively w/
bad actors?
“pointless to expose and shame…It’s a never- ending
and unwinnable game of whack-a-mole. ”
“Focus on educating audience on limitations of weather
forecast” (http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2014/08/20/hurricane-hype-is-here-to-stay-forecasters-must-adapt/)
National Hurricane Center speaks out…
“Now that we have entered the heart of the hurricane season, there is an
increase in the Internet hype around disturbances that NHC is monitoring.
Given the long lead times involved, the wide range of possible outcomes, and
the historically poor and erratic performance of guidance models with weak
disturbances, there is no reliable science to forecast potential impacts to
specific locations that would be more than a week away.
. . .
“…The bottom line really is: be alert, be prepared, but also be wary of long-
range projections that go beyond what the science can offer. And make
the NOAA National Hurricane Center www.hurricanes.gov your calm, clear, and
trusted source for official forecast and warning information on tropical
cyclones.”
https://www.facebook.com/NWSNHC/photos/a.126275484104607.2253
0.112957945436361/734769166588566/?type=1
Challenge: Some for-profit companies
providing unreliable forecasts
• Weather forecast “skill” is no more than 7-
10 days into the future
AMS: “Presently, forecasts of daily or
specific weather conditions do not exhibit
useful skill beyond eight days, meaning that
their accuracy is low.”
• Yet some companies provide such
forecasts 90 (or more) days out with no
uncertainty information
• Misleading? Ethical issues?
Lessons learned:
Climate change communication
• Don’t cherry pick and hype – discuss full range of results and credible views; nuance builds credibility
• Avoid labels “deniers”, “alarmists”, “warmists”…better “convinced”, “unconvinced” (doubters or skeptics ok, depending on context)
• Consider alternative views, but avoid “false balance” (equal time)
• Be respectful of different voices in the crowd. Don’t demonize people, perspectives.
Thank you!
Contact
Jason Samenow, Weather Editor - Washington Post
[email protected] - 202.334.9937
Blog: http://www.washingtonpost.com/capitalweathergang
Twitter: @capitalweather
Facebook: http://www.facebook.com/capitalweather