[challenge:future] yes, we can prevent power outages!
TRANSCRIPT
Africa’s Challenge:
Extended Power Outages
Solu;on: rehabilita;on of “aged” power plants
Sevgi Ceyda Şairoglu
Sabanci University
TURKEY
30 November 2011
Power outages - why important? � Power outage à interruption of normal sources of electrical
power
� Electrical power à transportation, cooking, communication, heating, air-conditioning, and lighting
� Power outages often accompany other types of disasters à floods, hurricanes
� Notable power outages: - 1977 NY City blackout - 2005 Java, Bali blackout à affected 100milion people
- 2009 Brazil&Paraguay blackout àaffected 60 million people
Let’s consider another type of power outage that African nations might face in the next decades à need to take action NOW!
Worlwide Energy Consumption…
We are facing (and will be facing more in the future) a more serious threat in Sub Saharan Africa related to electricity and power outages
Table 1. World Electrifica2on Rates
Electrifica;on rate (%)
Urban Electrifica;on
rate (%) Rural
Electrifica;on rate (%)
Africa 41.9 68.9 25.0 North Africa 99.0 99.6 98.4
Sub Saharan Africa (SSA) 30.5 59.9 14.3
Developing Asia 78.1 93.9 68.8 TransiLon Economies
&OECD 99.8 100.0 99.5
World 78.9 93.6 65.1
Pay special aVen;on to figures given for Sub Saharan Africa… and for a moment imagine a day without electricity (no TV, internet, mobile phone, modern cooking faciliLes, heaLng…). Imagine a year without electricity… Imagine your whole life burst into darkness…
A man made disaster threatening SSA: Power outages
OUen the popula;on that has access to electricity suffers from poor supply quality Frequent power blackouts
Average number of days of supply interrup;ons per year, 2000-‐2005
Eritrea 93.9
Kenya 83.6
Madagascar 78.0
Uganda 70.8
Tanzania 60.6
Table 2: Electricity Outages of firms in Africa
Source: Mangwende and Wamukonya (2007)
Source: East African Community’s report “Strategy on Scaling Up Access to Modern Energy Services”
Power outages in SSA create one of the worst types of poverty “Energy poverty”
DefiniLon:lack of sufficient choice that would give access to adequate, affordable, effec;ve, and environmentally sustainable energy services that support economic and human development.
7
1970 1980 1990 2000 2001
Algeria 10.7 11.7 15.1 16.3 15.7 Cameroon
5.2 7.6 13.9 25.7 14.5 Congo 4.5 31.0 18.8 65.3 69.5 Egypt 9.8 12.9 10.1 13.4 13.4
Ethiopia 6.9 5.4 10.0 10.0 10.0
Gabon 1.8 0.8 10.2 17.8 17.8 Ghana 6.1 4.7 8.6 14.7 24.0 Kenya 17.9 14.6 15.7 21.3 21.0 Nigeria 13.2 49.3 37.6 38.7 37.8 Tanzania 13.6 12.1 21.6 25.0 23.5 Zimbabwe 6.1 10.3 7.1 21.3 21.4
Table 3: Electric power transmission and distribu3on losses (%of output) in African countries 1970-‐2001
• Electric power transmission and distribuLon losses are largely due to inefficiency à the losses have increased between 1970 and 2001!
• Significant amount of power plants in SSA are built in
1960s & 1970s older than 40 years
• Turkey’s General Manager of Power GeneraLon Joint Stock Company quotes “the average age of a power plant is normally 25-‐30 years and rehabilitaLon projects -‐to improve the declining capacity and to render them for a reliable producLon-‐ must take place in aging power plants.”
• Although there are iniLaLves towards increasing energy access in SSA (especially in rural areas) there is no project aiming to increase energy efficiency and upgrade “old” power plants.
How to prevent the disaster and save SSA?
• Rehabilita;on programs à aiming to increase the producLon capacity and to raise efficiency
• Aging faciliLes are no longer able to operate at full capacity due to obsolete equipment. It is the case that “insufficient maintenance and lack of modernizaLon plague Africa’s electricity infrastructure”
• “Aged” power plants need to be refurbished to be efficient à so we can ease the electricity outage problems in SSA
Achievable solu;on & posi;ve outcomes: Turkey’s case: A major rehabilitaLon program started in 2005 in Turkey in the thermal and hydraulic power plants that used to operate for more than 28 years. The program aimed to increase the producLon capacity and to raise efficiency by using new technologies. à why not do this in SSA before the conLnent bursts into darkness? Outcomes: 1. African economies can achieve higher poten;als of their economies à
rise in producLvity, efficiency, and human capital 2. EssenLal step towards achieving key targets of the UN Millennium
Development Goals à “Modern energy can directly reduce poverty by raising a poor country’s producLvity and extending the quality and range of its products-‐ thereby pumng more wages in the pockets of the deprives” (IEA, 2002)