Challenge the EstimateChallenge the Estimate

Presentedby

Mort AnvariSteve Loftus23 June 05

Presentedby

Mort AnvariSteve Loftus23 June 05

2

Professional Adversarial Relationship

Determine the Cost

Challenge the Schedule

Conduct Risk Analysis

The Cost Review BoardThe Cost Review Board

History shows again and again how nature

points out the folly of men

3

AgendaAgenda

Historical Program Growth

Program Schedule

Software Schedule & Productivity

Question the Data Sources Systems

Sources of Data

4

Total CG by CommodityTotal CG by Commodity

142 Systems

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

Aircraft 42 C4I 24 Missile 34 Ship 19 Space 9 Ground Combat14

Pe

rce

nt

Co

st

Gro

wth

5

RDT&E CG by CommodityRDT&E CG by Commodity

137 Systems

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Aircraft 40 C4I 23 Missile 34 Ship 17 Space 9 Ground Combat 14

Per

cen

t C

ost

Gro

wth

6

Procurement CG by CommodityProcurement CG by Commodity

138 Systems

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

Aircraft 42 C4I 21 Missile 34 Ship 19 Space 9 Ground Combat 13

Per

cen

t C

ost

Gro

wth

7

Total CG by SubcommodityTotal CG by Subcommodity

142 Systems

-20%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

180%

200%

Aircra

ft Elec

tronic

6

Aircra

ft Heli

copt

er 9

Aircra

ft La

rge

5

Aircra

ft Sys

tem

6

Aircra

ft Tac

tical

11

Aircra

ft Tra

iner 3

Aircra

ft UAV 2

C4I C

omm

and

and

Contro

l 8

C4I C

omm

unica

tion

6

C4I S

enso

r 10

Groun

d Com

bat O

rdan

ce D

elive

ry S

yste

m 7

Groun

d Com

bat T

ank 5

Groun

d Com

bat T

rans

port

2

Miss

ile A

TA 8

Miss

ile A

TG 7

Miss

ile C

ruise

4

Miss

ile M

an P

orta

ble 2

Miss

ile P

rojec

tile 4

Miss

ile S

TA 4

Miss

ile S

TS 5

Ship C

arrie

r 6

Ship C

omba

tant

3

Ship S

ubm

arine

3

Ship S

uppo

rt 7

Space

Ball

istic

3

Space

Roc

ket 2

Space

Sat

ellite

4

Pe

rce

nt

Co

st

Gro

wth

8

Program ScheduleProgram Schedule

9

The Program ScheduleThe Program Schedule

Backwards Planning

FY04 FY05 FY06 FY08 FY09 FY10 FY11

IOC

IOTE

LRIP

MSC

Dev TestingHW/SW Dev

Full Rate Production

MSB

10

Historical Missile DevelopmentEffort Durations

Historical Missile DevelopmentEffort Durations

Weapon System LRIP Date Seeker

Actual MS II to LRIP Development Time

(Months)Actual to Planned Development Time

Single Mode SeekersJSOW - Unitary Jun-03 IR 98 148.5%JSOW - Unitary Jun-03 IR 63 Redesign Effort 35 Months Into ProgramJASSM Dec-01 IR 37 194.7%AIM-9X Sep-00 IR 45 112.5%Longbow Hellfire Oct-95 RF 58 113.7%Javelin Jun-94 IR 60 166.7%AMRAAM Jun-87 RF 57 190.0%Maverick Mar-82 IR 66 200.0%Average 55.1 160.9%

(Note 1)

Dual Mode SeekersSM II Block IVA RF / IR Terminated after 59 Months into 36 Month Program to Complete DT Flight TestingBAT Feb-99 Acoustic / IR 93 265.7%SM 2 Block IIIB Oct-95 RF/ IR 76 345.5%Average 84.5 305.6%

Tri Mode SeekersBAT P3I Acoustic / RF/ IR Terminated after 39 Months into 37 Month Program

(Note 1: Average includes Redesign Effort duration for JSOW - Unitary; average with Full JSOW Effort = 60.1 Months)

SOURCE: SAR and JSOW POE

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Missile Development Effort Durations And Joint Common Missile EstimatesMissile Development Effort Durations And Joint Common Missile Estimates

Successful Program Development Durations

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

1980 1990 2000 2010 2020

Year of LRIP Decision

Mo

nth

s

Single Mode

Dual Mode

JCM - SVC Estimate

JCM -CAIG Estimate

So, it can be done in 42 months?

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Software DevelopmentSoftware Development

Software estimating parameters Software Lines of Code (KSLOC) Effort for Reuse Effort for Modified Growth

Productivity (KSLOC per Staff Month) Labor Rate Software to Hardware Integration

Used to calculateEffective Lines of Code

(ESLOC)

Catagorey Effort KSLOC Growth KESLOCNew 100% 150 40% 210Reuse 10% 255 40% 36Modified 40% 175 40% 98COTS 5% 400 40% 28Total 372

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Software Estimating Rules of ThumbSoftware Estimating Rules of Thumb

Growth: 40%Reuse Effort: 5% to 30%Modified Effort: 30% – 70%COTS: 5% to 30%Software to Hardware integration: 30%Software Maintenance: 60% to 70% of SW Total Life Cycle Estimate

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Size GrowthSize Growth

15

Application Domain Number Projects

Size Range (KSLOC)

Avg Productivity (SLOC/SM)

Range (SLOC/SM)

Example Applications

Automation 55 25 to 650 245 120 to 440 Factory automation

Command & Control 43 35 to 4,500 225 95 to 330 Command centers

Data Processing 36 20 to 780 330 165 to 500 Business systems

Environment/Tools 75 15 to 1,200 260 143 to 610 CASE tools, compilers, etc

Military-Airborne 38 20 to 1,350 105 65 to 250 Embedded sensors

Military-Ground 52 25 to 2,125 195 80 to 300 Combat information center

Military-Missile 14 22 to 125 85 52 to 165 Guidance, Nav & Control Sys

Military-Spaceborne 18 15 to 465 90 45 to 175 Attitude control systems

Scientific 33 28 to 790 195 130 to 360 Seismic processing systems

Telecommunications 48 15 to 1,800 250 175 to 440 Digital switches and PABX

Trainer/Simulations 24 200 to 900 224 143 to 780 Virtual reality simulators

Web 64 10 to 270 275 190 to 975 Client/server sites

SW Productivity (SLOC/SM) by Application Domains

SW Productivity (SLOC/SM) by Application Domains

• Based on 500 projects from a database of 1,500 (Reifer Consultants, Inc) projects. • Scope extends from SW requirements review to SW/SW Integration• Does not include SW/HW Integration, Quality Assurance, System, or Operational Test, & Beta Test Personnel• Different Languages were used (ie Web projects employed Java & Visual C while military projects used Ada & C/C++

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Software EstimateSoftware Estimate

Catagorey Effort KSLOC Growth KESLOCNew 100% 150 40% 210Reuse 10% 255 40% 36Modified 40% 175 40% 98COTS 5% 400 40% 28Total 372

Given: Labor rate - $145 per hour (fully burdened with fee)152 hours per staff monthAviation Program

Staff Months: 3543 (372000 / 105)

Staff Month Labor Rate: $22,040 ($145 * 152)

SW Development: $78M (3543 * $22,040)

SW to HW Integration: $23M ($78M * 30%)

Total SW Development: $101M ($78M + $23M)

SW Maintenance: $168M ($101M/.6)

Total SW Life Cycle Cost Estimate: $269M ($101M + $168M)

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Missile/Seeker SoftwareMissile/Seeker Software

FY04FY04 FY05FY05 FY06FY06 FY07FY07 FY08FY08 FY09FY09 FY10FY10 FY11FY11

11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44 11 22 33 44

AH-64D IOCMS B MS C FRP

RAH-66 IOC w/JCMPDR CDR

F/A-18E/F EOCAH-1Z EOC

Phase 1

CA PPT (System Qual)EDT

MH-60 R EOC

Phase 2INCREMENT 1

DRR

Test Support

IPR

FRP CAAdv Proc LRIP 1 LRIP 2

November, 2003

IOT&E LUT DTDT SHOTS

SW Dev before DT ($101M)

SW Dev before DT ($74M) Test-Analyze-Fix ($23M)

CCA$101M

POE$97M

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Missile Qualification ComparisonMissile Qualification Comparison

5547

109 10420

56 60

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

Hellfire II Longbow Javelin JCM

Initial Operational Test & EvalDevelopment Testing

Missile Test Shots

How does program compare to analogous programs?

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Comparison of Estimated Resource Requirements

Comparison of Estimated Resource Requirements

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

FY 2003 FY 2004 FY 2005 FY 2006 FY 2007 FY 2008 FY 2009 FY 2010 FY 2011 FY 2012 FY 2013 FY 2014 FY2015

FY

200

3, $

M

20

Sources of Data

21

Army Tools for Total Ownership Cost Estimating

Army Tools for Total Ownership Cost Estimating

Life Cycle Cost Management Tools

APPN ACEIT PRICE SEER ACDB AMCOS OSMIS SBC/ISR CO$TAT

RDT&E X X X X X X

PROC X X X X X X

MILCON X X X X X

MILPERS X X X X X

O&M X X X X X X X

22

Automated Cost Estimator (ACE)Automated Cost Estimator (ACE)

• Automated Cost Estimator (Ace)—is a Model-building Tool. Part Spreadsheet, Part Database, It Incorporates Enough Structure to Eliminate Most of the Automation Tasks You Would Have to Perform If You Used a Spreadsheet, Yet It’s Flexible Enough to Perform Nearly Any Kind of Analysis. The Analyst’s Productivity Is Increased Through Built-in Inflation, Learning, Time Phasing, Documentation, Sensitivity/what-if, and Other Analysis Capabilities.

23

Automated Cost Data Base (ACDB)Automated Cost Data Base (ACDB)

ACDB Is ACEIT’s Automated Cost Database. Just As ACE Is a Model-building Tool, ACDB Is a Database- Building Tool. It Contains Powerful Database Entry and Administration Tools to Enable Any Site/office to Create Its Own Tailored Database. When You Populate It, ACDB Lets You Search and Retrieve Cost, Schedule, Technical, and Programmatic Data.

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Operating Support (O&S) CostingOperating Support (O&S) Costing

Operating & Support Operating & Support Management Management

Information System Information System (OSMIS)(OSMIS)

Force CostForce CostModel(s)Model(s)

Installation CostInstallation Cost(Base Operations / (Base Operations /

Real Property Real Property Maintenance) Maintenance)

25

26

Force Costing / ModelsFORCES: Unit Operations & Support

Force Costing / ModelsFORCES: Unit Operations & Support

• Updated Annually• Provides Input to 5 Defense Models• Supports 9 Separate Study Groups• Avg 25 Major Estimates Per Year

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OSMISOSMIS

Database

OSMISOperating & Support

Management Information System

• Parts (NSN Level) & Fuel• Ammunition• Intermediate Maintenance• Depot Maintenance• Activity Data (miles/Hours)• Year of Manufacture

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SummarySummary

Challenge the schedule through use of historical

programs

Software costing and metrics identifies schedule risk

Costs Analysis:It’s more than just Cost