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AUS Initiating Coverage| 1
12 June 2013
Canaccord Genuity (Australia) Limited is the Australian affiliate of global capital markets group Canaccord Financial Inc. (CF : TSX | CF : LSE)
The recommendations and opinions expressed in this research report accurately reflect the Analyst’s personal, independent and objective views about any and all the designated investments and relevant issuers discussed herein. For important information, please see the Disclosures at the end of this document.
MyNetFone Limited Warren Jeffries +61 3 8688 9108 [email protected] MNF: ASX
BUY Target: $1.35
COMPANY STATISTICS: Share Price $1.13
12 Month Range $0.45 - $1.65
Market Cap $70.3m
Enterprise Value $67.8m
Issued Shares 62.3m
Cash Balance - forecast $2.5m
Debt – forecast $0.0m
Major Shareholders
Rene Sugo – Managing Director
Andy Fund – Non-Exec. Director
Pie Funds Management
23.3%
23.3%
6.8%
EARNINGS SUMMARY: June Yr End FY12A FY13F FY14F FY15F
Revenue ($m) 38.3 52.4 70.8 76.6
EBIT ($m) 4.3 6.0 9.5 10.6
NPAT($m) 3.1 3.8 6.2 6.9
EPS Normalised (c) 5.5 6.5 9.9 11.0
EPS Growth (%) 205.3% 18.4% 51.8% 11.7%
PER (x) 20.6 17.4 11.5 10.3
EV/EBIT (x) 12.6 11.3 7.1 6.0
DPS (c) 2.3 3.3 5.0 5.3
Yield (%) 2.1% 2.9% 4.4% 4.7%
SHARE PRICE PERFORMANCE:
Source: IRESS
COMPANY DESCRIPTION: MyNetFone (MNF) is a leading provider of hosted voice and data communications services for residential, business and enterprise users. MNF’s wholly owned subsidiary, Symbio Networks, owns and operates Australia’s largest VoIP network providing wholesale carrier services to the domestic and overseas telecommunications markets.
VALUATION & PRICING DATA
DCF valuation $1.75
EBITDA valuation $1.35
PER valuation $1.26
Telecommunication Services
Working the network Investment Perspective
MNF is a leading provider of hosted voice and data communication services for residential, business and enterprise users. MNF also owns and operates Australia’s largest VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) communications network providing wholesale carrier services to domestic and overseas customers. As a fully integrated communications provider, MNF is well positioned to leverage its network through organic and acquisitive growth. We believe that on successful integration and synergy realisation from acquisition activity in the 1H13 will only serve to endorse MNF business model and growth potential. We initiate coverage with a BUY recommendation and price target of $1.35.
Key Points:
Symbio acquisition a company changer - acquired in July 2011,
MNF’s wholly owned subsidiary Symbio Networks owns and operates
Australia’s largest VoIP network and fifth largest non-mobile voice
network. A key wholesale provider of voice and data services to MNF
prior to being acquired, Symbio allows MNF to benefit from increasing
demand for VoIP products and services through owning and operating
its own fully interconnected network, while also mitigating the risk from
a likely increase in retail competition as we progress to an NBN
environment.
VoIP growing - in simple terms VoIP (Voice over internet Protocol)
refers to voice, data and other communication services that can use
the internet for communication delivery as an alternative to the
standard landline. The use of VoIP delivery for these services can
provide significant cost benefits and flexibility for users, while growth in
VoIP communication solutions continues to grow ahead of traditional
phone services.
Core offering a value proposition - MNF’s retail offering centers on a
value proposition, and providing customers with innovative products
and services. A key feature of MNF’s offering is an ongoing investment
in new product development, which is supported by an established in-
house engineering capability, and this is a hallmark of the executive’s
core skill set and background. MNF’s voice and data offering looks to
provide customers with savings of anywhere between 40 – 80% for
their communications requirements.
Recommendation & Valuation - We initiate coverage on MNF with a
BUY recommendation and price target of $1.35 based on an FY14
EBITDA multiple of 8x. On an EV/EBITDA basis MNF is currently
trading at a discount of ~35% to peers.
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FINANCIAL SUMMARY
Price 1.13$
MyNetFone Market Cap 70.3$ Year end 30 June
Profit & Loss ($m) 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Valuation ratios 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F
Revenue 38.3 52.4 70.8 76.6 EPS (cps) 5.5 6.5 9.9 11.0
EBITDA 4.3 6.0 9.5 10.6 PER (x) 20.6 17.4 11.5 10.3
Dep & Amort. -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 PER Rel - All Ind. 30% 19% -12% -16%
EBITA 3.9 5.4 8.6 9.6 PER Rel - Small Ind. 36% 28% -9% -8%
Amortisation of Intagiables 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 Enterprise Value ($m) 54.5 67.8 66.8 63.1
EBIT 3.9 5.4 8.6 9.6 EV / EBITDA (x) 12.6 11.3 7.1 6.0
Net Interest Expense 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 EV / EBIT (x) 13.9 12.6 7.7 6.6
NPBT 4.0 5.4 8.6 9.7 DPS (cps) 2.3 3.3 5.0 5.3
Tax expense -1.0 -1.6 -2.5 -2.8 Dividend Yield (%) 2.0% 2.9% 4.4% 4.7%
NPAT 3.1 3.8 6.2 6.9 Franking (%) 100% 100% 100% 100%
CFPS (cps) 7.4 2.4 6.9 12.4
P / CFPS (x) 15.4 48.0 16.4 9.1
Cash Flow ($m) 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F Profitability ratios 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F
Operating EBITDA 4.3 6.0 9.5 10.6 EBITDA Margin (%) 11.2 11.5 13.4 13.8
- Interest & Tax Paid 0.9 1.5 2.5 2.7 EBIT Margin (%) 10.2 10.3 12.2 12.6
+/- change in Work. Cap. 0.7 -3.0 -0.3 -0.1 ROE (%) 120.1 38.8 45.7 40.1
- other 0.3 0.0 2.4 0.0 ROA (%) 36.7 28.2 40.3 43.7
Operating Cashflow 3.9 1.5 4.3 7.7 ROIC (%) -125.5 52.0 61.6 68.9
- Capex -0.3 -0.8 -0.8 -0.8
- other -0.2 -6.5 0.0 0.0 Balance Sheet ratios 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F
- equity 0.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 Net Debt (cash) -4.9 -2.6 -3.5 -7.3
Free Cashflow 3.9 -5.8 3.5 6.9 Net Gearing (%) -192.8 -26.1 -26.1 -42.4
- Ord Dividends -0.9 -1.5 -2.6 -3.2 Interest Cover (x) -35.7 -345.3 -3169.7 -279.3
- Equity /other 0.4 5.0 0.0 0.0 NTA per share ($) -2.1 -1.3 2.4 6.1
Net Cashflow 3.4 -2.4 0.9 3.8 Price / NTA (x) -54.5 -89.7 48.1 18.7
Cash at beginning of period 2.5 6.0 2.5 3.5 EFPOWA (m) - fully diluted 52.6 62.3 62.3 62.3
+/- borrowings / other 0.0 -1.1 0.0 0.0
Cash at end of period 5.8 2.5 3.5 7.2 Growth ratios 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F
Sales revenue ($m) 181.5% 36.8% 35.1% 8.2%
Balance Sheet 2012A 2013F 2014F 2015F EBITDA ($m) -51.6% 39.9% 57.3% 11.7%
Cash 6.0 2.5 3.5 7.2 EBIT ($m) 307.7% 37.1% 60.6% 11.3%
Inventories 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.6 NPAT ($m) 205.3% 24.9% 60.8% 11.7%
PP&E 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.8 EPS (cps) - cash 205.3% 18.4% 51.8% 11.7%
Debtors 4.8 6.3 8.5 9.2 DPS (cps) 76.9% 41.3% 52.6% 7.1%
Intangibles 4.6 11.1 11.1 11.1
Other assets 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 Interim Analysis 1H12A 2H12A 1H13A 2H13F
Total Assets 16.7 21.6 24.9 29.2 Revenues 18.9 19.4 18.4 34.0
Borrowings 1.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 EBITDA 1.1 3.3 1.9 4.1
Trade Creditors 7.0 5.7 7.7 8.3 EBIT 0.9 3.1 1.7 3.7
Other Liabilities 6.1 6.1 3.8 3.8 NPAT 0.9 2.1 1.5 2.3
Total Liabilities 14.1 11.8 11.4 12.1 EPS (cps) 1.8 3.7 2.6 3.9
NET ASSETS 2.6 9.9 13.5 17.2 DPS 0.8 1.5 1.5 1.8
Board of Directors / Substantial Shareholders Valuation 2014F
Name % Normalised EBITDA multiple (x)
Terry Cuthbertson - Chairman 1.6 2.6% EBITDA ($m) 9.5
Rene Sugo - Managing Director 14.5 23.3% Target EBITDA multiple (x) 8.0
Michael Boorne - Non-Executive Director 1.2 2.0% Add cash ($m) -3.5
Andy Fung - Non-Executive Director 14.5 23.3% Implied Valuation 79.7
Per Share 1.35
Substantial Shareholders % Target PE Multiple
Rene Sugo - Managing Director 14.5 23.3% EPS (c) - cash 9.9
Andy Fung - Non-Executive Director 14.5 23.3% PER Target (x) 12.6
Pie Funds Management 3.6 6.8% Per Share 1.26
Discounted Cash Flow
Cost of equity 13.5% WACC 12.2%
Cost of debt 6.3% Terminal Growth Rate 3.0%
Source: Company reports & Canaccord Genuity es timates Net Debt/ Net debt + equity 14.3% Per Share 1.75
Shareholding
Shareholding
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12 June 2013
MNF is a leading provider of hosted voice and data communications services for
residential, business and enterprise users. MNF’s wholly owned subsidiary, Symbio
Networks, owns and operates Australia’s largest VoIP network providing wholesale
carrier services to the domestic and overseas telecommunications markets. The
Symbio network carries 3.2bn+ minutes voice traffic annually with capacity for up to
4bn minutes.
Background
MNF was founded in 2004 by co-founders Mr Rene Sugo (CEO) and Andy Fung (Non-
Exec. Director & former CEO) and listed on the ASX in 2006 with a market
capitalisation of $9m. The IPO raised $2.5m with an issue price of $0.20/share.
MNF listed as a retail provider of voice and data services to the residential and small
business market. In February 2011, the acquisition of wholesale voice carrier Symbio
Networks (Symbio) was completed which allowed MNF to establish a fully integrated
communications network.
MNF founders and shareholders Rene Sugo and Andy Fung were joint owners of
Symbio at the time of acquisition with independent directors and experts both finding
the acquisition to be fair and reasonable. Consideration for Symbio was capped at
$6m with a final payment of $2.35m due to be paid in September 2013.
The Symbio acquisition represented a highly strategic and transformational
transaction for MNF with Symbio owning and operating Australia’s fifth largest fixed
voice interconnected network that will allow MNF to generate significant scale and
synergy benefits from acquisition growth and organic initiatives. Importantly for MNF,
demand for VoIP services is outstripping traditional voice carriage infrastructure.
Key operations and capabilities:
Subsequent to the acquisition of Symbio, MNF has quickly moved to leverage their
network infrastructure by acquiring the business of CallStream, GoTalk Wholesale and
Connexus, which has expanded both their retail and wholesale capabilities.
Retail operations will focus on residential, business, enterprise and government, with
Symbio wholesaling a suite of managed services and carriage solutions.
Figure 1: Divisional operations
Source: Company reports
Residential Business Enterprise VoIP Managed Services Wholesale
95,000+ active services
including 7,000+ DSL
MyNetFone Virtual PBX
service with 2,000+
deployments
MyNetFone Vendor
agnostic SIP Trunking
250,000+ SIP end-points
hosted on network
Owns carrier grade
communications network in
Aust, NZ & Singapore
MyNetFone domestic call
centre & account
management
Connexus multi-site data
services
Enterprise level SLA's Number porting with
300,000 hosted numbers
Interconnect with Tier 1
network providers
Well positioned for NBN Emphasis on Government
Carriage Services
Cloud based hosting of
DIDs & 1300/1800 inbound
numbers
Capcity for 4 billion voice
minutes annully
Multiple vendor
certifications (Micrsoft,
Avaya, Panasonic, Cisco
& others
630,000+ Aust. & New
Zealand DID numbers
hosted on network
Services 130+ wholesale
cusomers & carriers
Retail Wholesale
CallStream OTT cloud
based inbound call
services
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Through a combination of organic growth and acquisitions, MNF has expanded its
customer reach significantly over the past year as tabled below:
Subscriber numbers:
Figure 2: Subscriber growth
Business Market Offering Current FY12
MNF Residential Voice / Data / other 95,000 92,500
MNF Business Voice / Data / VPBX 8,000+ 5,000+
Symbio Business Hosted SIP end-points 252,000 192,000
Symbio Business Hosted numbers (ported) 300,000 139,000
Symbio Business DID Numbers (Total) 631,000 441,000
Symbio Wholesale Wholesale customers 138 105
Source: Company reports & Canaccord Genuity estimates
VoIP a growing market
Demand for VoIP communication solutions continues to grow ahead of traditional TDM
(time division multiplexing) phone services, while demand for VoIP minutes should
continue to benefit from improved broadband infrastructure and capacity, and to that
extent, demand for VoIP communication solutions should increase significantly with
the National Broadband Network.
Figure 3: Voice Traffic – TDM and VoIP (Billions of minutes)
Source: Telegeography
What is VoIP
VoIP or Voice over Internet Protocol is a methodology and a range of technologies for
the delivery of voice communications and multimedia (voice, video, instant messaging,
etc) sessions over Internet Protocol (IP) networks, or more simply VoIP refers to voice,
data and other communication services that can use the internet for communication
delivery as an alternative to the standard landline.
The key benefits of VoIP is that communications can be delivered without requiring a
traditional terrestrial phone line and charges, while ongoing communications costs are
significantly lower, in addition to there being a broad range of services that can be
delivered cost effectively over a VoIP network.
Key VoIP products and services provided by MNF include voice, hosted PBX
solutions, number porting, SIP trunking and a range of managed services solutions.
Through its wholly owned subsidiary Symbio, MNF is able to provide a holistic VoIP
solution to retail, business and enterprise end users.
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VoIP quality is dependent on the standard of the broadband network and capacity,
therefore as broadband speeds increase and capacity lifts, so can be expected the
quality of VoIP products and services. The NBN can therefore be expected to derive
increased demand for VoIP products & services for which MNF is significantly well
positioned to benefit.
Financials
MNF recorded a maiden NPAT result of $0.2m in FY09 on revenues of $9.8m. In
FY12, revenues and NPAT increased to $38m and $3.1m respectively, for which
Symbio contributed ~$2.2 to NPAT for the 12-month period.
We are currently forecasting FY13 NPAT of $3.8m (↑25%) and FY14 NPAT of $6.2m
(↑61%) which includes the annualised benefit of recent acquisitions.
Key Risks and Opportunities
The acquisition of Symbio has provided MNF with a significant opportunity to leverage
an established network infrastructure that operates in a growing market segment.
However with MNF still at a relatively early stage in its consolidation phase, an
element of integration risk currently exists, while competition at a retail level is likely to
intensify with the onset of the NBN.
We also deem a level of key man risk with CEO, Rene Sugo, and Non-Executive
Director, Andy Fung, both integral to the establishment of MNF and Symbio and the
combining of the businesses.
We rate MNF a BUY with a price target of $1.35 which represents a premium of 20%.
MNF is currently trading on a FY14 and FY15 forecast PER of 11.4x and 10.2x
respectively. We note our near-term forecasts reflect organic growth within the group’s
established MNF and Symbio operations, in addition to synergy benefits being
realised in FY14 and FY15 from recent acquisitions.
Symbio Networks
Wholly owned by MNF, Symbio owns and operates Australia’s largest VoIP network
and is the 5th largest non-mobile voice interconnected network carrying over 3.2bn
minutes of wholesale VoIP traffic annually and covering 100% of the population in
Australia, New Zealand and Singapore.
Market position
Symbio operates in the wholesale internet segment of the telecommunications market
which provides the supporting network infrastructure for resellers of data based
communications products & services.
The telecommunications industry includes communication services utilising fixed line
technology, mobile phone technology and internet based technology. The wholesale
internet segment in which Symbio operates provides telecommunication services
utilising internet based technologies. This network infrastructure supports domestic
voice and data communications in Australia and communications between Australia
and overseas markets. Consumers of wholesale voice and data include solely internet
based carriers such as MNF as well as major full service carriers such as Telstra,
Optus and AAPT/Powertel. Symbio’s competitors include large ASX listed companies
such as TPG Telecom, Amcom and Primus, which was recently acquired by M2
Telecommunications (ASX: MTU).
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12 June 2013
Technology
The Symbio network benefits from over 11-years of R&D investment and product
development, which will be ongoing and help support anticipated increases in voice
and data volumes. In addition, a substantial amount of IP has been internally
developed by Symbio, which helps maintain its network capabilities and capacity
without incurring ongoing product development and software licensing fees.
Figure 4: Symbio VoIP Network
Key features of the Symbio network:
Regional interconnect Nodes – Symbio has established the 66 points of
interconnect that are required for a full national network interconnect with Telstra, and
other interconnected carriers. The 66 points are inside specially designated Telstra
exchanges around the country.
Major Network Nodes – allows MNF to interconnect with regional nodes for which
third party data centres will typically hold MNF equipment (voice gateways & routers).
This then allows MNF to impart their proprietary technology and IP onto their network
which is integral in establishing a market leading VoIP network.
Main Network Nodes – major interconnects for MNF with locations (typically data
centres) again holding servers, routers and primary software, including call control and
billing capabilities, which again are integral to MNF’s network and operational
capabilities.
MNF’s ability to be fully interconnected with all Tier-1 carriers has firstly established a
national carrier grade VoIP network, and then secondly, and with modest
infrastructure, has been able to enhance its network capabilities through ongoing in-
house research & development and technological innovation which represent both a
significant competitive advantage and barrier to entry.
The Symbio network, unlike many competing VoIP offerings, also has built-in
redundancy and back-up capabilities.
Source: Company reports
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Symbio’s core capabilities:
Managed services - the division provides the network infrastructure that enables
retail providers of voice & data communications to operate their business. Customers
are typically retail service providers for which MNF’s retail operations are a significant
customer. Symbio currently carries 3.2bn+ minutes of wholesale voice carriage p.a.
Wholesale carriage - the division carries incoming and outgoing voice and data from
domestic and international service providers both within Australia and into overseas
markets. As a wholesale carriage platform provider Symbio is required to enter the
open market to buy network capacity or minutes of capacity, in competition to larger
Tier 1 carriers which includes Telstra, Optus, AAPT and Primus (MTU). Entering the
open market does expose the business to some currency and trading risk in buying
forward capacity.
Carrier Interconnect & terminating access - Symbio also holds a ‘Carrier Access
Code’ (CAC) that allows Symbio to interconnect with Tier 1 carriers, and allows
Symbio to charge Tier 1 carriers at the mandated wholesale rate for traffic that passes
across its network. This represents a relatively new source of revenue for Symbio, but
is expected to grow strongly as demand increases for this service.
We note that a ‘CAC’ is only held by only six Tier 1 carriers and requires a significant
level of negotiation with Telstra and other Tier-1 carriers to be obtained (never made
easy), in addition to having a carrier grade network capability, hence there is a
significant level of network investment and time to obtain a CAC.
MNF estimate that in excess of $20m has been invested in the Symbio VoIP network
since being was founded in 2002, and we estimate OpEx is currently running at ~$4m
p.a.
Leveraging the network through acquisition
Subsequent to the acquisition of Symbio, MNF have added the businesses of
CallStream, Connexus and Go-Talk Wholesale which have served to provide scale
and product expansion at both a retail and wholesale level, while also delivering
significant synergy benefits that will be realised through the migration of the acquired
customer bases onto the Symbio network.
We note for a small telco reseller or ISP, the cost to source wholesale carriage supply
from a third party provider can range anywhere from 30-60% of revenues.
Recent acquisitions and earnings impact as follows:
CallStream – specialist inbound call provider of 1300 & 1800 numbers to the SMB’s.
MNF paid $0.6m for Call Stream, which after identified network synergies, is forecast
to deliver to MNF annualised revenues and EBIT of $1m and $0.6m respectively,
which represents an acquisition multiple of 1x EBIT. The acquisition was effective from
November 2012
Connexus – an ISP to the SMB market. MNF agreed to pay $4.75m for Connexus
based on annualised revenues and EBIT of $5.2m and $2.1m, which included
immediately identifiable network synergies of ~$0.5m pa. MNF acquired Connexus for
an after synergy multiple of 2.3x. The acquisition was effective from December 2012.
GoTalk Wholesale – a wholesale voice carrier with 40 customers. MNF paid $1.4m to
acquire the GoTalk network and wholesale business, with the business generating
annualised revenues and EBITDA of $19m and $0.6m respectively at the time of
acquisition. The appeal of GoTalk is the opportunity to migrate the customer base
from disparate and antiquated legacy systems to the Symbio network, which over a 2-
year period can be expected to provide network synergies of up to $2m.
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Based on company guidance for FY14, GoTalk is forecast to deliver FY14 EBIT of
$1.3 - $1.6m after initial synergy benefits, therefore GoTalk has also been acquired on
an effective FY14 EBIT multiple of ~1x.
Key contracts also drive scale and endorsements
Tasmanian Government contract – in July 2012 MNF announced that it had been
selected by the Tasmanian Government to supply VoIP telephony services for an
initial term of 3-years with up to extensions of a further 10-year period. The deal
represents a total contract value of ~$20m.
While the contract is not expected to make a positive contribution in FY13 due largely
to mobilisation costs, revenues will materially emerge in FY14 and the contract is
expected hit a run-rate of $2m p.a. by FY15.
Queensland Government endorsed provider – places MNF on a panel for the QLD
Government and therefore represents upside to existing expectations given we have
made no allowance for a contribution at this stage.
Branding / Key products and services
MNF has moved to leverage their network infrastructure by acquiring the business of
CallStream, GoTalk Wholesale and Connexus which has expanded both their retail
and wholesale capabilities.
Brand rationalisation will see GoTalk folded into Symbio, while Connexus and
CallStream will remain customer facing brands at this stage.
Retail operations will focus on residential, business and enterprise and government,
with Symbio offering a suite of wholesale managed services and carriage solutions to
resellers and industry.
Key products & Services
Figure 5: Key Products & Services:
Source: Company reports and Canaccord Genuity estimates
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MNF VoIP solutions – practical examples
Example 1: Virtual PBX 4
Lines included: 4
Monthly fee: $100.0
Free calls: 500
Additional call rate: $0.10 (per call – untimed)
Mobile rate: $0.15 (per minute)
Expense item Existing Provider
MyNetFone Savings Savings %
Line Charges $328.9 $100.0 $228.9 70%
Internet Charges - - - -
Calls to Local & National $181.0 - $181.0 100%
Calls to Mobiles $101.3 $11.1 $90.2 89%
Calls to 13 numbers $2.1 $1.5 $0.6 29%
Totals $613.3 $112.6 $500.7 82%
Example 2: Virtual PBX 8
Lines included: 8
Monthly fee: $180.0
Free calls: 1000
Additional call rate: $0.10 (per call – untimed)
Mobile rate: $0.15 (per minute)
Expense item Existing Provider
MyNetFone Savings Savings %
Line Charges $189.4 $180.0 $9.4 5%
Internet Charges - - - -
Calls to Local & National $117.0 - $117.0 100%
Calls to Mobiles $62.3 $34.1 $28.2 45%
Calls to 13 numbers $10.4 $9.1 $0.9 8%
Totals $379.1 $223.6 $155.5 41%
Example 3: Virtual PBX 8
Lines included: 8
Monthly fee: $180.0
Free calls: 1000
Additional call rate: $0.10 (per call – untimed)
Mobile rate: $0.15 (per minute)
Data Plan: ADSL2+ Standard
Quota Included 50,000 MB per Month
Monthly Fee $99.95
Expense item Existing Provider
MyNetFone Savings Savings %
Line Charges $586.1 $180.0 $406.1 69%
Internet Charges $180.0 $99.9 $80.1 44%
Calls to Local & National $52.7 - $52.7 100%
Calls to Mobiles $96.4 $16.4 $80.1 83%
Calls to 13 numbers $16.1 $11.5 $4.6 29%
Totals $931.3 $307.8 $623.5 67%
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SWOT Analysis
STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES
• National VoIP network that is well
positioned to leverage future demand
for next generation voice and data
communications.
• Customer base remains small versus
larger established “challenger’ telcos
• High level of in-house research &
development and engineering
capabilities
• High degree of customer inertia with
existing telecommunications
providers
• In-house developed and owned
intellectual property.
• Lack of awareness of VoIP network
capabilities and benefits
OPPORTUNITIES THREATS
• VoIP market continues to grow
ahead of broader
telecommunications market, and
NBN should be positive
• Ongoing growth in demand for VoIP
products and services will attract
larger incumbents to the space.
• High level of operating leverage as
an owner and operator of a fully
interconnected carrier grade network
• Competition in the reseller market is
likely to increase with the NBN
• Acquisition of established customer
bases and migration to MNF network
• Regulation and legislation of
telecommunications industry
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12 June 2013
Financials
MNF delivered 1H13 EBITDA and NPAT of $2.0m (↑80%) and $1.5m (↑61%)
respectively. The strong organic result reflecting growth from the business sector and
margin benefits realised from Symbio’s wholesale network. The result also includes
two months of CallStream which made a negligible impact.
For FY13 and FY14 we are forecasting NPAT of $3.8m (↑25%) and FY14 NPAT of
$6.2m (↑61%) respectively. Our FY13 forecasts are largely aligned with company
guidance given the significant level of recent acquisitions and limited earnings history
of the broader group.
For FY14 earnings growth is underpinned by the annualised impact of recent
acquisitions, organic growth within the established MNF and Symbio operations and
network synergies being realised.
Figure 6: CGAu Detailed estimates
($m) – unless stated FY12A FY13F % ∆ FY14F % ∆
Revenues
- MNF 15.1 16.2 7 17.8 10
- Symbio 23.2 25.3 9 27.8 10
- CallStream 0.5 - 1.0 nmn
- Connexus 2.5 - 5.2 nmn
- GoTalk 8.0 - 19.0 nmn
Total Revenues 38.3 52.4 37 70.8 35
EBITDA
- MNF 1.1 1.2 12 1.3 14
- Symbio 3.2 3.5 10 3.9 12
- CallStream 0.3 - 0.6 nmn
- Connexus 0.8 - 2.2 nmn
- GoTalk 0.2 - 1.5 nmn
Total EBITDA 4.3 6.0 40 9.5 57
EBITDA % 11.2 11.5 ↑30bps 13.4 ↑190bps
EBIT 3.9 5.4 (11) 8.6 17
EPS 5.5 6.5 18 9.9 52
DPS 2.3 3.3 43 5.0 51
Source: Company reports & Canaccord Genuity estimates
FY14 – key assumptions:
Revenues – organic growth of 10% for the established MNF and Symbio operations,
which are underpinned by the Tasmanian Government contract (announced in July
2012) which is expected to generate ~$1m of new revenues in FY14, with the
potential to lift to $2m p.a. in the medium-term.
Revenues will also benefit from an annualised contribution from the recent
acquisitions of CallStream, Connuexus and GoTalk, for which we are assuming flat
like-for-like revenue growth as business and network capabilities are now being
transitioned across to MNF.
AUS Initiating Coverage| 12
12 June 2013
EBITDA - earnings and margin growth for FY14 will reflect organic revenue growth, in
addition to the annualised benefits of recent acquisitions and the realisation of
targeted synergy benefits from recent acquisitions.
We note GoTalk represents the most significant synergy opportunity with up to $2m in
network synergies identified. However existing third party network arrangements mean
that these benefits will take up to 2-years to be fully realised. Our current forecasts
currently assume GoTalk’s EBITDA contribution lifting to $1.5m in FY14 which will
reflect ~$0.9m in network synergies being realised. For FY15 we expect an additional
$0.5m to be realised in relation to GoTalk with upside for a further $0.5m.
We note our FY14 EBITDA forecasts for both CallStream and Connexus reflect the full
realisation of network synergies identified at the time of acquisition.
Other financial considerations
Balance Sheet:
MNF was in a modest net cash position of $2.4m as at 31 December 2012, with recent
acquisition activities supported by the issue of new equity during 1H12 which raised
$5m. With regards to Connexus $3m was raised by issuing 4.2m shares @ 72c in
November 2012, while the GoTalk transaction resulted in an additional $2m being
raised by issuing 2.1m shares @ 94c in December.
We estimate the balance sheet remains in a net cash position currently, with the final
deferred payment of $2.35m, in relation to the Symbio acquisition, due to be paid in
September 2013.
Operating cashflow and dividends:
1H13 operating cashflow of $1.4m (pcp: $1.1m), with cashflow conversion
(OCFBIT/EBITDA) declining to 0.7x from 1.0x in the pcp. The 1H13 cashflow result
was impacted by acquisition activity at the end of the period, and we expect cashflow
conversion (OCFBIT/EBITDA) to again move to 0.8 - 1.0x EBITDA with the full benefit
of acquisitions and be in-line with industry peers.
MNF has consistently paid dividends since FY10, increasing annual distribution each
year. Dividend payout ratio expected to remain at circa 50% of earnings in the
medium-term as the company continues to expand.
AUS Initiating Coverage| 13
12 June 2013
Valuation & Price target - $1.35
We derive a $1.35 price target for MNF based on a target EBITDA multiple of 8x
FY14F EBITDA of $9.5m
We estimate our target EBITDA multiple represents an average discount of >20% to
our listed peer group (refer page 13).
We note on a DCF valuation basis we derive a valuation of $1.75, however given
cashflow generation remains at an early stage of being realised we refrain from a DCF
driven price target at this stage.
Figure 7: Valuation summary
Valuation Summary Valuation Premium
to CMP (%)
Discounted Cashflow $ 1.75 55
EBITDA Multiple $ 1.35 (20)
PE Multiple $ 1.26 12
Weighted Average Valuation $ 1.45 32
DCF Valuation
Beta 1.6
Ke (%) 13.5
Kd (%) 6.3
WACC (%) 12.2
Terminal Growth Rate (%) 3.0
Business Value ($M) 106.4
Less Net Debt/(Cash) ($M) (2.6)
Equity Value ($M) 109.0
Number of shares (M) 62.3
Value per share ($) 1.75
EBITDA Multiple FY14 EBITDA
($M) Multiple
(x) Valuation
EBITDA 9.5 8.0 76.3
Net Debt / (Cash)($M)
(3.5)
Equity Valuation ($M)
79.7
Value per Share ($)
1.35
PE Multiple FY14
Forecast Normalised EPS (c)
9.9
PE Multiple (x) 12.6
Value per Share ($) 1.26
Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates
Comparative Analysis
AUS Initiating Coverage| 14
12 June 2013
In the table below we present a comparative analysis of MNF to its listed peers, for
which a number operate traditional telecommunications networks.
MNF is trading at a 35% discount to peers based on a peer average FY14 EV/EBITDA
multiple of 10.8x, however we deem it appropriate for MNF to be trading discount of
~20% to listed peers given relative market capitalisation, liquidity and mindful that
MNF remains in a relatively early stage of its consolidation strategy. However we do
recognise MNF has a significant network asset, and highly experienced and relevant
management team.
Figure 8: Comparative Analysis
Enterprise
Value
PER EV/EBITDA Company FY13F
(x) FY14F
(x) FY13F
(x) FY14F
(x)
Amcom 397 18.9 16.3 12.9 11.2
Big Air 93.8 17.1 12.8 12.6 9.3
iiNet 1,197 15.6 13.7 11.9 11.2
M2 Telecommunications 1,177 16.2 12.9 14.2 10.1
TPG 2,672 18.0 16.2 12.5 11.6
Vocus 209 18.4 13.7 16.2 11.6
Average
17.4 14.3 13.4 10.8
MNF 70 17.2 11.4 11.1 7.0
Premium / (Discount)
(3%) (22%) (18%) (35%)
Source: Canaccord Genuity estimates and Capital IQ
AUS Initiating Coverage | 15 12 June 2013
Key investment Risks
MNF is exposed to a number of risks including:
• Technology: new communication mediums and ongoing convergence of the IT and telecommunications sectors will drive down pricing longer-term and therefore potential revenues.
• Substitution: a function of technological change which increasingly allows users a number of avenues for which to undertake their telecommunication needs.
• National Broadband Network (NBN): likely to establish a commoditised network capability that will open up the market to increased competition, particularly within the consumer/ residential market and could impact revenues.
AUS Initiating Coverage | 16 12 June 2013
Appendix 1: Glossary
DID Numbers: Traditional phone companies handed out DID (direct inward dial) numbers like candy. In the VoIP world of SIP trunking, there is a real cost for each phone number therefore companies will want to do an inventory and convert only the number of DID numbers you are actually requiring.
Internet - is a global system of interconnected computer networks that serves billions of users worldwide. It consists of millions of private and public, academic, business, and government networks of local to global scope that are linked by copper wires, fibre-optic cables, wireless connections, and other technologies.
Number Porting - a process where your phone number is moved from one service provider to another along with the actual phone service. The ability to quickly port numbers is becoming an increasingly important mechanism for telecommunication providers in acquiring new customers and retaining them as their businesses grow or move into new geographical locations.
Protocols - There are rules adhered to globally that govern how data (voice, images, media, video etc) is transferred over networks, how they are compressed, how they are then presented on the screen or ultimately received. These set of rules are called protocols. There are many protocols, each one governing the way a certain technology works. For example, the IP protocol defines a set of rules governing the way computers use IP (Internet Protocol) packets to send data over the Internet to the end recipient or any other IP-based network.
Internet Protocols - IP - Internet Protocol (IP) is the principal communications protocol used for relaying packets of data across a network using the Internet Protocol Suite. Responsible for routing packets across network boundaries, it is the primary protocol that establishes the Internet.
Session Initiation Protocol (SIP) - is a standard protocol adhered to for making and receiving phone calls over the internet. SIP has become the most popular standard for VoIP globally because it is easy to work with and works well with most networks. All good service providers and equipment vendors support SIP, and customers should check their equipment for SIP compatibility before purchase.
SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) Trunking - A SIP Trunk is a VoIP service that connects a company's PBX telephone system to the public switched telephone network (PSTN) via the Internet. Using a SIP trunk helps to alleviate much of the traditional connectivity (fixed line / PTSN gateways etc) to the PTSN, while also being able to provide a more reliable and flexible communications solution.
PBX (Private Branch eXchange) is a private telephone exchange that serves a particular business or office, and is connected to the public network using phone lines or trunks. A traditional PBX system requires the installation of expensive hardware and ongoing maintenance.
IP (Internet Protocol) PBX (Private branch exchange) is a business telephone system designed to deliver voice or video over a data network and interoperate with the traditional Public Switched Telephone Network (PSTN). MyNetFone SIP Trunking service connects your company's IP PBX via the internet using the latest VoIP standard – Session Initiation Protocol (SIP).
Virtual PBX (or Host PBX, VoIP PBX) - a virtual Private Branch eXchange (PBX) telephone system which delivers PBX-style features, without the need to buy and maintain expensive PBX hardware. A Virtual PBX telephone system is just like having a phone system in your office, except the features and functions run from external services which are owned and operated by telecommunications providers.
VoIP (Voice over Internet Protocol) - is simply the transmission of voice traffic over the internet, instead of over landlines. The benefit of VoIP is the much lower call-costs compared to traditional landline.
Hosted VoIP - A VoIP service run on a core platform by a service provider for both business and residential users. Users are connected via the Internet to the providers platform and all calls are transported over the Internet. Additional features such as voicemail, call routing and call forwarding are available either as standard or for additional monthly fees. All administration is carried via a web interface.
National Broadband Network (NBN) - The Australian Government is currently building the NBN network in Australia. The NBN will support increased volumes of VoIP and data traffic in Australia due to increased use of internet based telephony. Importantly, under the NBN, customers will require only one provider of broadband and telephony services. Symbio stands to benefit from this increase due to its strong position in the VoIP market.
AUS Initiating Coverage | 17 12 June 2013
Appendix 3: Directors & Management
NAME POSITION BACKGROUND
Terry Cuthbertson Chairman A Chartered Accountant, previously partner at KPMG with extensive corporate
finance expertise and knowledge. Also Director of S2 Net Ltd, Montec
International Ltd, Austpac Resources N.L., Mint Wireless Ltd, South American
Iron & Steel Ltd, OMI Holding Ltd, Sun Biomedical Ltd and Malachite
Resources Ltd.
MNF Director since March 2006
Rene Sugo Managing
Director
Extensive experience in telecommunications.
Formerly Technical Director of Lucent Technologies. Co-Founder of Symbio
Networks Pty Ltd.
MNF Director since March 2006
Michael Boorne
Non Executive
Director
A successful entrepreneur with extensive track record in combining technical
expertise with commercial and corporate experience.
Founder of Sprit Modems and Mitron Pty Ltd and previously a Non Executive
Director of Netcomm Ltd. Also Director of Boorne Management Pty Ltd and
Earglow Pty Ltd.
MNF Director since December 2006
Andy Fung Non-Executive
Director
Extensive experience in telecommunications. Formerly Director of Business
Development of Lucent Technologies. Co-Founder of Symbio Networks Pty
Ltd.
MNF Director since March 2006
AUS Initiating Coverage | 18 12 June 2013
Appendix 4: Company History
Date Event
12 March 2013 MNF is accredited by the Queensland Government as an accredited supplier under the Government Information technology Contracting (GITC) Framework.
27 February 2013 MNF reports 1H13 NPAT of $1.5m (↑61%) on revenues of $18.4m (↓2.6%). In interim dividend of 1.5c was declared.
19 December 2012 MNF enters an agreement to acquire the network and wholesale business of GoTalk, a Sydney based voice carrier. Consideration is $1.4m in cash with GoTalk forecast to deliver gross revenues of $19m and EBITDA (post-synergies) of $1.3m to $1.6m, or $0.6m pre-synergies.
14 November 2012 MNF enters an agreement to acquire Connexus, a Melbourne based ISP, which specialises in delivering data communications to the SME market. Consideration is $4.75m with Connexus forecast to deliver gross revenues of $5.2m and EBITDA (post-synergies) of $2.1m, or $1.6m pre-synergies. The transaction is funded by way of existing cash and a $3m placement to institutional and sophisticated investors.
7 November 2012 MNF acquires the customer base and assets of inbound call specialist CallStream for $0.6m. CallStream is forecast to deliver gross revenues of $1m and EBITDA (post-synergies) of $0.6m respectably on an annulaised basis.
28 September 2012 Guidance upgraded by 9% to FY13 EBITDA of $4.6 to $4.8m and NPAT upgraded by 11% to $3.2m to $3.4m.
23 August 2012 MNF reports FY12 NPAT of $3.1m on revenues of $38.3m. NPAT was up 205% for the period. A final dividend of 1.5c is declared.
23 July 2012 Announces that MNF has been awarded a $20m VoIP contract with the Tasmanian Government
9 July 2012 MNF respond to ASX price Query Letter and comes out of trading halt
23 April 2012 Guidance provided for FY12 NPAT of $2.75m to $3.0m, which represents a 30% increase on previous FY12 guidance.
29 February 2012 Mr Rene Sugo assumes the role of CEO with co-founder Me Andy Fung resigning from his role as Managing Director following the completion of the Symbio acquisition. Mr Fung remains as a non-executive director of MNF.
24 February 2012 Acquisition of Symbio group confirmed for total consideration of $6m and an upfront component of $1.3m.
31 August 2011 MNF reports FY11 NPAT of $1.0m on revenues of $13.6m. NPAT was down by 49% for the period. A final dividend of 0.8c is declared.
30 August 2011 MNF enters into Heads of Agreement to purchase Symbio Group of companies. Symbio is a wholesale voice carrier located in Sydney, Australia, supplying domestic and international markets. The related party transaction was subject to shareholder approval.
28 June 2011 Guidance for FY11 NPAT of $1.1m, an increase of 10% on the pcp.
28 February 2011 MNF’s SIP trunking service is certified to interwork with Microsoft Lync Server for unified communications, which delivers integrating voice, video, fax instant messaging and other features.
25 October 2010 Launches mobile VoIP service for three leading Smartphone operating systems in iPhone, Android and Symbian which will benefit from increasing market penetration of 3G mobile and Wi-Fi in Australia.
24 August 2010 MNF reports NPAT of $2.0m on revenues of $12.1m. A maiden dividend of 0.75c is declared.
27 August 2009 MNF reports a maiden NPAT of $0.2m on revenues of $9.8m; active customers reach 74k.
11 March 2009 Launches new SIP (Session Initiation Protocol) Trunking service to broaden MNF’s range of voice and data business-grade solutions.
28 August 2008 MNF reports a FY08 net loss of $1.9m on revenues of $6.8m
15 May 2008 Launches Virtual PBX service which is targeted to the SME market.
18 October 2007 MNF reaches 35k customers
AUS Initiating Coverage | 19 12 June 2013
10 September 2007 Launches new unified messaging feature ‘Follow Me’ which allows MNF customers to self manage and re-direct in real time their incoming calls to any destination globally – landline, mobile, mobile-VoIP, VoIP or Voicemail-to-email.
31 August 2007 MNF reports a FY07 net loss of $3.3m on revenues of $3.3m
23 August 2008 Launches mobile VoIP service, MNF On-the-Go, for any supported Nokia mobile devices to receive MNF VoIP calls from their handsets within Wi-Fi of 3G coverage.
5 July 2007 MNF reaches 35k customers
3 July 2007 Raises $1m in private placement to sophisticated investors and Symbio Networks Pty Ltd which is a related party to MNF. The placement coverts existing debt to Symbio Networks into MNF equity. Equity was raised at $0.18c.
23 May 2007 MNF reaches 30k subscribers, representing a 300% increase on listing in May 2006.
6 March 2007 Signs new equipment sourcing arrangement with Linksys, a subsidiary of networking vendor Cisco. The equipment will target the SOHO and SME market to provide a lower cost VoIP solution.
19 December 2006 Appoints Mr Michael Boorne to the role as non-executive director
5 December 2006 MNF and Big Air (ASX: BGL) reach agreement to deliver convergent wireless solutions providing voice and broadband data services to domestic businesses.
28 November 2006 Subscriber numbers pass 20k, representing a 100% increase since its IPO.
26 October 2006 Expands sales team with appointment of three new BDM’s to focus on retail, corporate and channel sectors.
28 September 2006 Signs a new dealer agreement with Panasonic Australia. Panasonic is the exclusive provider of IP-PBX phone systems to MNF.
22 September 2006 Acquires the VoIP business, operations and customer base of Broad IP Pty Ltd. The transaction increases MNF’s customer base to 16k+, representing a 60% increase since its IPO.
13 September 2006 MNF reports a FY06 net loss of $1.4m on revenues of $1.6m
6 September 2006 MNF launches converged VoIP and Internet Broadband solutions for the SME and business enterprise market.
28 November 2006 Subscriber numbers pass 20k, representing a 100% increase since its IPO.
26 October 2006 Expands sales team with appointment of three new BDM’s to focus on retail, corporate and channel sectors.
28 September 2006 Signs a new dealer agreement with Panasonic Australia. Panasonic is the exclusive provider of IP-PBX phone systems to MNF.
22 September 2006 Acquires the VoIP business, operations and customer base of Broad IP Pty Ltd. The transaction increases MNF’s customer base to 16k+, representing a 60% increase since its IPO.
13 September 2006 MNF reports a FY06 net loss of $1.4m on revenues of $1.6m
6 September 2006 MNF launches converged VoIP and Internet Broadband solutions for the SME and business enterprise market.
31 August 2006 Services launched into New Zealand and other countries
17 May 2006 MNF lists on the ASX with a market capitalisation of $9m after raising $2.5m @ $0.20c in an IPO.
AUS Initiating Coverage | 20 12 June 2013
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