cfa mufakat syndicate background

7/27/2019 CFA Mufakat Syndicate Background

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CFA ANALYSISAhong Ting-Ting Mufakat

Syndicate

Valuasi PT. Ramayana

Lestari Sentosa Tbk

(RALS.JK)


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COMPANY BACKGROUN

PT Ramayana Lestari Sentosa Tbk is an Indonesia-based retail

chain operator.

Established in 1978 : Paulus Tumewu & wife.

The Company operates department stores and sells various

products.


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95 Ramayana stores, 7

Robinson store, 3 Cahaya

stores and 1 Orangemartstore.

Located in Jakarta, West

Java, East Java, CentralJava, Sumatera, Bali,

Kalimantan, Nusa

Tenggara, Sulawesi and

Papua.

RAMAYANA AND FRIENDS


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Focused its business

operation with fashion

including

The remaining 25% are

goods sold by

supermarket and other

goods.

Clothes and shoesaccounted for 70-75%

of its sales.


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The market segment of Ramayana--middle to low income

people.

The impact of a decline in the

purchasing power is more damaging

to its sales performance.

The glut of imports of cheap including second hand wear

affected its sales performance.


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INDUSTRY DESCRIPTION

Modern retail still offers rooms togrow

Sustainable sales growth

Domestic consumption has provento remain quite strong and stable,

especially daily necessities

Modern retail still has a highgrowth potential as now it caters

only less than 40% of total market


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Number of modern reatil grows rapidly in the densely populated

cities like Jakarta, Semarang, Bandung, Surabaya, Yogyakarta and

Malang.

Also in Medan, Palembang, Denpasar and Makassar, where the

purchasing power of the citizens are also relatively strong


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Modern retails several store formats :

- minimarket- supermarket

-hypermarket

-dept. Store

- convenience store Modern retails grow faster than trad. Store

Growth modern retails outlets reached 162% during 2003-2008

Supermarket positioned in the middle between minimarket &hypermarket

Considered have less competitive advantages or significantbenefits compared to previous 2 markets


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EXPANSION

Expansion of modern retail store be constrained by the

implementation of Perpres no 112/2007 (about manegement andsupervision of Traditional Market, Shopping Centre and Modern Store)

Government plans to implement quota system for modern store

in a region to avoid saturated market & cannibalism (Permendag

no 53/2008)


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INDUSTRY ANALYSIS

HIGH SALES TURNOVER, STABLE ANNUAL SALES BUT THERE IS

SALES SEASONALITY


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COMPETITORS

To win competition : spend in quality service improvement &

marketing activities

Selling price is still competitive pressure on margin which osalready low

Supermarket segment : Hero, Carrefour Express, Superindo,

Foodmart, Rimo, Matahari and Yogya.


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REPORTThe Q411 BMI Indonesia Retail Report forecasts that the

countrys retail sales will grow from IDR1.39trn (US$133.89bn)in 2011 to IDR2.30trn (US$222.41bn) by 2015.

With the population forecast to increase from 235.7mn in

2011 to 247.5mn by 2015, GDP per capita is predicted to

grow 65% by the end of the period, reaching US$5,739.

Indonesias nominal GDP is forecast to be US$819.6bn in2011, and BMI predicts average annual GDP growth of 6.1%

through to 2015.


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INDONESIAN RETAIL FORMAT EVOLUTION

BEFORE 1960 : TRADITIONAL RETAILER, INDEPENDENT SELLER

1960 : MODERN RETAIL FIRST ERA WITH DEPARTMENT STORE FORMAT

1970-1980 : MODERN RETAIL DEVELOPMENT ERA WITH DEPARTMENT

STORE AND SUPERMARKET

1990 : CONVENIENCE STORE (C-STORE), HIGH STORE, BRANDEDBOUTIQUE( HIGH FASHION), CASH AND CARRY

2000-2010 : HYPERMARKET, FACTORY OUTLET, AND E- RETAILING

INTRODUCTION

2010-2020 : HARD DISCOUNTER STORE AND CATALOG SERVICE

> 2020 : THE REAL E-RETAILING AND SPECIALIZATION STORE


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CONSUMER RETAILTREND IN

INDONESIA

PAY LESS, EXPECTMORE, GET MORE

SHOPPING EXPERIENCE


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INDONESIAN GROWTH RETAIL IN INDONESIA

POPULATION >>

GROWTH >>

OMZET >>


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Investment Summary

RALS Stock Performance 20062011

finance.yahoo.com


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Financial Analysis

Important Ratio of RALS

Annual Report RALS


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Cost of Equity


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WACC

From Balance Sheet 2010

ASSET = 3,485,982

EQUITY = 2,680,436

DEBT = No Long Term-Debt, so no interestpayment

Ws = Equity/Asset

= 0.7689

WACC = 14.4%


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Income Statement 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012P 2013P 2114P

Net Sales 4,407,554 4,310,395 4,775,168 4,798,049 4,994,133 5,198,232 6,237,878

COGS (2,883,585) (2,839,025) (3,116,277) (3,143,495) (3,271,963) (3,405,680) (4,086,816)

Gross Profit 1,523,969 1,471,370 1,658,891 1,654,553 1,722,171 1,792,552 2,151,062

Operating Expenses (1,107,366) (1,104,825) (1,288,061) (1,243,107) (1,293,909) (1,346,788) (1,616,146)

Operating Income 416,603 366,545 370,830 411,447 428,262 445,764 534,916

Other Income (Expenses) 104,570 37,578 40,997 63,648 66,249 68,957 82,748

Income Before Tax 521,173 404,123 411,827 475,095 494,511 514,720 617,664

Income Tax (91,426) (69,360) (57,075) (76,909) (80,052) (83,324) (99,988)

Net Income 429,747 334,763 354,752 398,186 414,459 431,397 517,676

share outstanding 7,096,000,000 7,096,000,000 7,096,000,000 7,096,000,000

EPS 60.84 47.39 50.12 56.11 58.41 60.79 72.95

Depre 122,569 143,639 143,200 145806 151765 157967 189561

FCF 643,742 547,762 555,027 620,901 646,276 672,688 807,225


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estimasi

Period 2008 semester 2 2009 semester 2 2010 semester 2 2011 semester 2

%sales Semester II 49.93% 60.25% 59.16% 56.45%

period 2008 2009 2010 2011

% COGS terhadap Sales 65.42% 65.86% 65.26% 65.52%

% operating expanse terhadap Gross

profit 72.66% 75.09% 77.65% 75.13%

% other income terhadap operating

income 25.10% 10.25% 11.06% 15.47%

% tax terhadap 17.54% 17.16% 13.86% 16.19%

% depre terhadap gross profit 8.04% 9.76% 8.63% 8.81%


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growth 2012,2013 2010 2008

4,775,168 4,407,554

4%

growth kondisi normal 20%

Rf 6.50%

betas 0.746

Rm or IHSG return 22.903%Ws 0.76891849

Tahun 2007 2008 2009 2011

IHSG 51.41% -50.53% 84.02% 6.71%


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Income Statement 2008 2009 2010 2011E 2012P 2013P 2114PNet Sales 4,407,554 4,310,395 4,775,168 4,798,049 4,994,133 5,198,232 6,237,878

COGS (2,883,585) (2,839,025) (3,116,277) (3,143,495) (3,271,963) (3,405,680) (4,086,816)

Gross Profit 1,523,969 1,471,370 1,658,891 1,654,553 1,722,171 1,792,552 2,151,062

Operating Expenses (1,107,366) (1,104,825) (1,288,061) (1,243,107) (1,293,909) (1,346,788) (1,616,146)

Operating Income 416,603 366,545 370,830 411,447 428,262 445,764 534,916

Other Income (Expenses) 104,570 37,578 40,997 63,648 66,249 68,957 82,748

Income Before Tax 521,173 404,123 411,827 475,095 494,511 514,720 617,664

Income Tax (91,426) (69,360) (57,075) (76,909) (80,052) (83,324) (99,988)

Net Income 429,747 334,763 354,752 398,186 414,459 431,397 517,676

share outstanding 7,096,000,000 7,096,000,000 7,096,000,000 7,096,000,000

EPS 60.84 47.39 50.12 56.11 58.41 60.79 72.95

Depre 122,569 143,639 143,200 145806 151765 157967 189561

FCF 643,742 547,762 555,027 620,901 646,276 672,688 807,225

TV 9,267,043

PV $542,714.14 $493,759.35 $449,220.46 $5,880,418.99

grwoth -14.91% 1.33% 11.87% 4.09% 8.34% 24.90%

Average 5.24%

NPV Fair Value = Rp. 7,366,112.94

Value per share = Rp. 7.366.112,94 / (7.096.000.000 / 1000.000) =

Rp. 1038.06


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ATT MUFAKAT SYNDICATEThis report is published for educational

purposes only by students competing in the

CFA Institute Research Challenge

RAMAYANA LESTARI

SENTOSA. Tbk

Ticker: RALS

Price: Rp. 690

Recommendation: BUY

Price Target: Rp. 1038


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cfa mufakat syndicate background

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