ceo josé sergio gabrielli de azevedo - presentation to the "comitê de cooperação econômica...
TRANSCRIPT
1
XIV Japan Brazil Joint Economic Committee
Meeting
CEO José Sergio Gabrielli de Azevedo
August 9th 2011
2
DISCLAIMER
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS:
DISCLAIMER
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of future results. Such forward-looking statements merely reflect the Company’s current views and estimates of future economic circumstances, industry conditions,company performance and financial results. Such terms as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", "plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward-looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these statements are only projections and may differ materially from actual future results or events. Readers are referred to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC, specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could cause actual results to differ from those contained in the forward-looking statements, including, among other things, risks relating to general economic and business conditions, including crude oil and other commodity prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, uncertainties inherent inmaking estimates of our oil and gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic and social developments, receipt of governmental approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing.
We undertake no obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information or future events or for any other reason. Figures for 2011 on are estimates or targets.
All forward-looking statements are expressly qualified in their entirety by this cautionary statement, and you should not place reliance on any forward-looking statement contained in this presentation.
NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
We present certain data in this presentation, such as oil and gas resources, that we are not permitted to present in documents filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation S-X.
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THE IMPORTANCE OF NATURAL RESOURCES TO JAPAN
Japanese Imports ‐ Jan‐Jun 2011
0,1% 8,1%
9,5%
2,5%
30,4%
9,4%
20,1%
11,0%
Foodstuff Materials Fuels
Chemical Products Manufactured goods Machines
Transport Equipment Others
Japan imports almost 100% of its natural resources demands, as it does not produce oil, LNG, coal
and iron ore, for instance.
Japan is relatively wellpositioned in the world’s natural resources supply chain, throughjoint ventures or developmentand production project finances
Japan imports almost 100% of its natural resources demands, as it does not produce oil, LNG, coal
and iron ore, for instance.
Japan is relatively wellpositioned in the world’s natural resources supply chain, throughjoint ventures or developmentand production project finances
Japanese Fuel Imports ‐ Jan‐Jun 2011
15,70%
2,90%
3,80%
6,60%
1,20%
Petroleum Petroleum Products LNG LPG Coal
4
49% 51%
Other Discoveries Deep Water
62%38% Brazil
Others
New Discoveries 2005‐2010
(33.989 million bbl) Deep waterdiscoveries
Source: PFC Energy
BRAZIL ON THE LEADERSHIP OF RECENT DISCOVERIESDeep water discoveries in Brazil represent 1/3 of the world’s discoveries in the last 5 years
• Over the last 5 years, more than 50% of the new discoveries (in the world) took place in deep waters
• The development of these new reserves will demand additional capacity in the supply chain
• The expansion of Brazil’s oil and gas supply chain is aligned to this perspective
We expect to double our proven reserves until 2020, keeping finding costs at US$ 2/boeWe expect to double our proven reserves until 2020, keeping finding costs at US$ 2/boe
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LONG HISTORY OF TECHNOLOGICAL AND OPERATIONAL LEADERSHIP IN DEEPWATERS
Offshore production facilities
100
5
8
8
9
10
12
12
13
15
15
45
0 20 40 60 80 100
Others
ENI/Agip
ConocoPhillips
CNOOC
Total
Anadarko
Chevron
BP
ExxonMobil
StatoilHydro
Shell
Petrobras
FPSO Semi Spar TLP OtherPetrobras operates 20% of deep waters global production
1977Enchova410ft125m
1988Marimbá1,610ft491m
1994Marlim3,370ft1,027m
1997Marlim Sul5,600ft1,707m
2003Roncador6,180ft1,884m
2009Lula
7,125ft2,172m
Source: PFC Energy(1) These 15 operators represented 98% of global deep waters production in 2009. Water depth of 1000 feet
Deep water productionGlobal operations in 2009¹
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LONG HISTORY OF BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS
50/60
Participation in the reconstruction efforts of the Japanese naval industry in the Post‐war period, through ships procurement in Japanese shipyardsConstruction of the drilling
ship Petrobras II – NS‐01
70/80
Participation of JGC–Japan Gasoline Corporation in the construction of refineries in BrazilThree‐party model in the
Petrochemical Industry in Camaçari, with the participation of big Japanese companiesConstruction of 4
semisubmersible drilling platforms in Japan (Petrobras IX, X, XI, XII)
90
Platforms lease sale back Bolivia‐Brazil gas pipeline
financingTQC programs in
partnership with JUSEToyo Engineering working
on RELAM’s modernizationParticipation of Japanese
companies in the AlbacoraLeste and Frade projectsUrucu’s NGPU financingVarious project finances
2000
Various project finances and loansSamurai Bonds issuancePetrobras Japanese Office
begins operationsTechnological cooperation
with Kobe Steel EngineeringPartnerships in international
projectsLPG sales to Idemitsu OilMitsui becomes Petrobras’
partner in gas distributionEmployees interchange
between Petrobras and MitsuiToyo Engineering works on
engineering projectsMOUs with Mitsui, Itochu
Corporation, JOGMECBrazil Japan Ethanol Trading,
in partnership with Japan Alcohol Trading Partnership with Tokyo
UniversityPartnership with Mitsui and
Transocean to build Petrobras 10.000 Drilling Ship
7
Okinawa Refinery acquisition (Nansei Sekiyu Co)JOGMEC’s financing to
NanseiTechnological cooperation
with Tokyo’s UniversityPROMINP’s presentation to
the Japanese marketNT‐ Guanabara’s leaseMOUs with Sumitomo
Corporation and Mitusbishi CorporationTranspetro’s LNG operators
are trained at Tokyo Gas’terminal
MOUs with Marubeni Co. and Mitsui & Co. to Premium I and Premium II’s studiesDBJ financingPartnership with Sapporo
Beer to produce hydrogen from sugar caneMOU with JOGMEC to study
methane hydrates, ERP, CO2 capture, flex pipes, new tubings for the pre‐saltFPSOs contracts (MODEC) FEED of the FLNG with
Saipem‐SBM‐Chiyoda and Technip‐JGC‐MODECLNG Master Agreement with
Japanese companiesPartnership with Mitsubishi
Co and Schain Cury to build the second deep water drilling ship Joint Venture with Mitsui &
Co to ethanol trading based in SingaporePartnership with Toyo
Engineering to micro GTL pilot plant
LNG Master Agreement with Japanese companiesPetrobras 10.000
financing with JBICMitsui & Co. working to
build and operate Comperj’s utilities in partnership with PetrobrasGTL compact on
negotiations with Sumitomo PrecisionSales of E3 gasoline to the
Okinawa marketNANSEI’s financing by DBJ
and ODFCIHI’s cooperation to
rebuild the facilities of the Ishikawajima shipyard in BrazilParticipation of Japanese
companies in two consortiums to study the Floating LNG project
Under negotiations with KEPCO/Kansai Electric Power Company a contract for oil supply in case of emergenciesSecond phase of employees
interchange between Mitsui & Co. and PetrobrasSpecific Agreement with
JOGMEC to develop flexible linesExpansion of E3 sales in
Okinawa (4 gas stations today. Forecast of 20 by year end)Examples of recent projects
with the participation of Japanese companies:₋ FPSO Cidade de São Paulo MV23₋ FPSO Cidade de Angra dos Reis MV22₋ FPSO Cidade de Santos MV20₋ FPSO Cidade de Niterói MV18₋ FSO Cidade de Macaé MV15₋ FPSO Cidade de Rio de Janeiro₋ FPSO Fluminense
2008 2009 2010 2011
LONG HISTORY OF BILATERAL RELATIONSHIPS
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Perspectives of the Brazilian Market
9
652 718 731 899 1.078
1.097 1.204 1.315
706699 586
231312 320
480
542593 634125136
1.7391.453
2.317
997
436
906
738
401
290
147
141
106
979494
79
38
171717
7.142
4.957
3.8473.7733.464
2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
Ferti l i zers
Electri c energy
Biofuels
Internationa l sa les
Natura l gas
Exports
Other distributors
Sa les to BR
PN 2011‐15 ‐ Volume de VendasTota is do Sis tema Petrobras
Sales volumes (thousand boed) 6,6% p.a.
5,6% p.a.
GROWTH IN SALES VOLUMES
10
87%
7%
3% 2%1%
E&P RTM G&E Distribution Corporate
2011‐2015 INVESTMENTS
International:US$ 11,2 billion
Total:US$ 224,7 billion
57%31%
6%2%1%2%1%
E&P RTM G&EPetrochemicals Distribution BiofuelsCorporate
70,6
3,813,2
3,1
4,12,4
127,5 (*)
(*) US$ 22,8 bi in exploration
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1.855 1.971 2.004
321 317 334 435
618
1.120
111 132 144141
180
246
2.100
9996 93
96
125
142
2008 2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
Oil Production ‐ Brazil Gas Production ‐ Brazil Oil Production ‐ Intl Gas Production ‐ Intl
2.386 2.516
6.418
3.993
1.148543
Pre-Saltth boe
/day
2.772
845Transfer of Rights
13
+ 10 post‐sal projects
+ 8 pre‐salt projects
+ 1 Transfer of Rights project
+ 35 Systems
Additional capacity
Oil: 2.300 th. bpd
2.575
• Pre‐salt and Transfer of Rights will represent 69% of the additional production until 2020;
• Pre‐salt’s share of Petrobras’ oil production in Brazil will grow from the current 2% in 2011 to 18% in 2015 and 40,5% in 2020.
3.070
4.910
PRODUCTIONWith ample access to new reserves, Petrobras will more than double production on the next decade
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PRODUCTION, REFINING AND DEMAND IN BRAZIL
Abreu e Lima Refinery (RNE)
230 th bpd (2012)
Abreu e Lima Refinery (RNE)
230 th bpd (2012)
COMPERJ(First unit)165 th bpd(2013)
COMPERJ(First unit)165 th bpd(2013)
PREMIUM I(second unit)300 th bpd(2019)
PREMIUM I(second unit)300 th bpd(2019)
PREMIUM II300 th bpd(2017)
PREMIUM II300 th bpd(2017)
COMPERJ(second unit)165 th bpd(2018)
COMPERJ(second unit)165 th bpd(2018)
PREMIUM I(first unit)300 th bpd(2016)
PREMIUM I(first unit)300 th bpd(2016)
1.8112.205
3.217
1.971 2.004 2.100
3.070
4.910
1.792 1.7981.933 2.147 2.208
2.536
3.095
0
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
2009 2010 2011 2015 2020
Oil and NGL Production ‐ Brazil Throughput ‐ Brazil Oil Fuels Market (2 scenarios)
Th. bpd
2.643
3.327
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THANK YOU!