centre for diet and activity research a new tool for modelling the public health impacts of...
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Centre for Diet and Activity Research
A new tool for modelling the public health impacts of transport policiesJames WoodcockUniversity of Cambridge24/01/2012
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
Where does modelling fi t?
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
Where does modelling fi t?
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
ITHIM
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
ITHIM
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
California Bay Area
Maizlish N, Woodcock J, Co S, Ostro B, Fanai A, Farley D. Health Co-Benefits and Transportation-Related Reductions in Greenhouse Gas Emissions in the Bay Area: Technical Report. California Department of Public Health, November 2011.
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
England & Wales Scenarios
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
2030: A Typical English Street?
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
Baseline
Vision 3Vision 2
Vision 1Median:9
minMedian:1
4 min
Median:19 min
Median:30 min
Physical Activity Exposure Modelling
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
Dose Response Relationship: CVD
Derived from Hamer et al Br J Sports Med 2008;42:238-243
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
b p m c d h Bicycle b kbb kbp kbm kbc kbd kbb Pedestrian p kpb kpp . . . . Motorbike m kmb kmp kmm . . . Car c kcb etc . . . .Bus d kdb . . . . . HGV h khb . . . . .NOV n kb . . . . .
Striking Vehicle
Inju
red
part
yRoad Traffic Injury Modelling Methods
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
Methods development
• Multiple health pathways
• Physical activity:
• Age specific distributions
• Non-linear dose-response relationship
• Morbidity not just mortality
• Injuries:
• Sensitivity to motor vehicle volume
• Inclusion of speed
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
England & Wales Results
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
Impact
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
Modelling Geographical Variation
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
Modelling Policies
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
Next Steps
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This work was undertaken by the Centre for Diet and Activity Research (CEDAR), a UKCRC Public Health Research Centre of Excellence.
Funding from the British Heart Foundation, Economic and Social Research Council, Medical Research Council, the National Institute for Health Research, and the Wellcome Trust, under the auspices of the UK Clinical Research Collaboration, is gratefully acknowledged.
In addition acknowledge support from the California Public Health Department and Visions 2030 Walking and Cycling Project (EPSRC funded)
Centre for Diet and Activity Research
Dose Response ARR:Impact on CVD