centaurus metals ltd (ctm.asx)

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Centaurus Metals Ltd (CTM.ASX)

Overview: Centaurus Metals Ltd (“Centaurus”, “the Company”) is an Australian minerals company focused on developing iron ore mining operations in Brazil. Ore Reserves totalling 48.5million tonnes (Mt) have been delineated as part of a Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS) at its most advanced Project, Jambreiro. The Company has established a broader mineral Resource portfolio totalling 216Mt, inclusive of Reserves.

Catalysts: Development of Jambreiro into a producing mine is Centaurus’s major value growth driver. With feasibility and permitting works complete, an offtake partnership and procurement of construction finance would send a strong signal of the asset’s near term, scalable cash flow potential.

Hurdles: With almost two years passing since completion of the original Jambreiro BFS, marketing and execution risks are impacting confidence toward the stock. Management must contend with international price benchmarks one third lower year to date, and a funding environment contingent on offtake clarity.

Investment View: Centaurus offers speculative exposure to the iron ore mining industry and Brazilian steel demand. We are attracted to the advanced status of its Jambreiro Project, and value growth which pending offtake and funding events could deliver. Whilst they may require a recovery in international price benchmarks, a high degree of risk appears to be factored into the stock. With our valuation offering a premium of 170 per cent to recent trade, and varying to iron ore prices by a factor of three, we initiate coverage with a ‘speculative buy’ recommendation.

Centaurus Valuation Summary

Method Assumption Valuation Per Share

Comparables 3x Reserve $145m $0.22

Discounted Cash Flow Price US$39/t $135m $0.20

Average $0.21

Corporate Summary

Shares on Issue 239m Other Securities 9m Options ($0.56-$1.20, 2014-17) 1.4m Performance Rights ($0, 2017) Net Cash $4.9m Market Cap $18m

Asset Overview

Title Jambreiro Iron Ore Project Location Brazil Status Reserve Ore Reserve 48.5Mt @28% Fe Saleable Inventory 18Mt @ 65% Fe

Board of Directors

Chairman Mr Didier Murcia Managing Director Mr Darren Gordon Non Exec Director Mr Peter Freund Non Exec Director Mr Mark Hancock

Shareholders Directors 3.6% Acorn Capital 7.5% Atlas Iron 21.0% Liberty Metals & Mining 14.2% Top 20 63.5%

Share Price $

Source: Bloomberg .

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

2012 2013 2014

Offtake to drive Takeoff

25 Aug 2014

Spec Buy

Last Price: $0.078

Exploration Resource Reserve

Analyst: Imran Valibhoy

Valuation: $0.21

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Company Overview

Centaurus Metals Limited (“Centaurus”, “the Company”) is an Australian minerals company with iron ore assets in Brazil. Its most advanced project is Jambreiro, located in the State of Minas Gerais, which accounts for over 60 per cent or 170mtpa of Brazil’s iron ore production. Mineral reserves of 48.5million tonnes (Mt) have been delineated at Jambreiro as part of a Bankable Feasibility Study. The reserve estimate is contained within a mineral resource portfolio totalling 216Mt.

Centaurus Resources Ltd was founded in June 2006 and listed on the Australian Securities Exchange in August 2007 upon raising $4million at 20c/share (CUR.ASX). After procuring a portfolio of Brazilian mineral assets, Centaurus Resources Ltd executed a merger with Glengarry Resources Ltd (GGY.ASX) which closed in February 2010. The scrip based transaction saw shareholders of Centaurus Resources Ltd receive 53 per cent of the merged entity.

The Company commenced trading as Centaurus Metals Ltd (CTM.ASX) in April 2010. Issued capital currently stands at $103.5million, or $0.43/share.

Asset Overview – Jambreiro (100%)

The Jambreiro Iron Ore Project consists of three Mining Leases covering 32.7.km2 in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The Jambreiro Project site is located approximately 200km north east of the State Capital, Belo Horizonte, and 12km from the township, São João Evangelista.

The project is located close to existing infrastructure including good quality sealed roads, a sealed airstrip, industrial water supply and high voltage power, all of which are readily available for use by the Company. The steel-making region, Ipatinga is situated 110km south.

Jambreiro Iron Ore Project – Oct 2012 Reserve Estimate

Category Quantity Fe % SiO2% Al2O3% P% LOI%

Proved 35.4Mt 28.5 49.6 4.3 0.04 1.7

Probable 13.1Mt 27.2 49.0 5.3 0.04 2.4

Total 48.5Mt 28.1 49.4 4.6 0.04 1.9

Table 1: Mineral Reserve estimate for Jambreiro applying a cut of grade of Fe 20%. The estimation only includes near surface ores classed as ‘friable’. Deeper material known as ‘compact’ ores and encompassing half of Measured and Indicated Resources were excluded despite meeting open pit mining requirements. Source: Centaurus

Figure 1: Centaurus is an Australian Company with mineral projects in Brazil: Source: wise-owl

Advanced Brazilian Iron Ore Portfolio

Figure 2: Located in the State of Minas Gerias, Jambreiro is Centaurus’s flagship asset. Source: Centaurus

Brazil Office & Project Sites

Head Office

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Centaurus acquired the Jambreiro Project in June 2010 as part of an 18 tenement package within Minas Gerais for US$3million plus a future production royalty.

The area under Mining Lease was the subject of a Bankable Feasibility Study (BFS), completed in November 2012. Within the Mining Leases, Measured, Indicated, and Inferred Resources totalling 128.5million tonnes have been delineated, from which Proved and Probable Reserves totalling 48.5million tonnes were established as part of the BFS.

Significantly, the Reserve estimation only incorporated near surface material otherwise known as ‘friable’ ores. Deeper ‘compact’ material which comprises approximately half of the Measured and Indicated Resources were excluded from the Reserve estimation despite satisfying open pit mining requirements.

Jambreiro Iron Ore Project – June 2014 Resource Estimate


Measured 45.3Mt 29.2 50.3 3.9 0.04 1.6

Indicated 37.7Mt 27.5 51.0 3.7 0.04 1.7

M+I 83.0Mt 28.4 50.6 3.8 0.04 1.6

Inferred 45.5Mt 27.3 52.6 3.4 0.05 1.4

Total 128.5Mt 28.0 51.3 3.7 0.05 1.5

Table 2: Mineral Resource estimate at Jambreiro applying a cut of grade of Fe 20%. Note that approximately half of the resources are of friable nature with the balance compact material. Source: Centaurus

Subsequent to completion of the BFS, Centaurus has outlined additional mineral resources proximal to the Mining Leases within its Canavial and Candonga tenements (“Jambreiro Satellite Deposits”). Indicated and Inferred Resources totalling 39.5Mt have been delineated.

Significantly, the Candonga Resource contains 0.9Mt of Direct Shipping Ore (“DSO”) grading 58.6% Fe which is now the focus of additional drilling and feasibility works to support a potential small scale production opportunity.

Candonga Satellite Deposit – JORC Resources


Measured - - - - - -

Indicated 3.7Mt 45.5 26.2 3.8 0.08 2.7

M+I 3.7Mt 45.5 26.2 3.8 0.08 2.7

Inferred 8.1Mt 41.8 30.2 4.4 0.08 3.1

Total 11.9Mt 43.0 29.0 4.2 0.08 3.0

Proved + Probable Reserve 48.5mt

Figure 3: Outcropping friable ore at the Jambreiro Project, where resources totalling 128Mt have been delineated. . Source: Centaurus

DSO opportunity at Jambreiro Satellite Deposits

Figure 4: Steel manufacturers are located within 110km of Jambreiro. Source: Centaurus

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Canavial Satellite Deposit – JORC Resources



Indicated 6.5Mt 33.6 33.6 7.1 0.10 7.9

M+I 6.5Mt 33.6 33.6 7.1 0.07 7.9

Inferred 21.1Mt 29.6 29.6 5.7 0.07 5.9

Total 27.6Mt 30.5 30.5 6.0 0.07 6.4 Tables 3 and 4: Mineral Resource estimate for the Candonga and Canavial deposits at Jambreiro applying a cut of grade of Fe 20%. Note that approximately half of the resources are of friable nature. Source: Centaurus.

Development Strategy

Completed in November 2012, the Jambreiro BFS appraised the economics of a nine year mining and beneficiation operation producing 2Mt pa of high grade (+65% Fe), low impurity sinter blend concentrate for domestic steel markets.

Whilst development scenario’s considered in the BFS indicated robust economics (post tax IRR 33%, NPV8 $140million), Centaurus is pursuing a staged development strategy to reduce start up capital requirements.

The Staged Development Plan was announced in December 2013. It envisages an initial 1Mt pa operation, with the ability to expand. Benefits include large reductions in preproduction capital expenditure, an accelerated development timeline, and greater financing flexibility.

Release of the Staged Development Plan coincided with the receipt of Mining Leases in January 2014. Jambreiro is now fully licensed and permitted to deliver 3Mt pa.

Higher grade ore recently delineated at the Candonga satellite deposit is being investigated as an early stage cash flow opportunity. A decision on its role within the Jambreiro development is expected in Q4 2014 with first production possible in Q1 2015.

Economics

Completed feasibility works to date have focused on the main Jambreiro deposit. Investigations currently underway for the Candonga satellite deposit could confirm a small scale but potentially high value addition to the mine plan.

Discussions with management suggest Candonga could be brought into production rapidly for a capital outlay of no more than A$5million. It is envisaged that cash flow generated at Candonga be used to supplement funding for the main Jambreiro deposit, which is expected to require capital investment of A$53million (US$47million) to establish a 1Mt pa operation.

Candonga DSO being investigated as an early cash flow opportunity

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The difference in capital requirements relates primarily to Candonga’s smaller operating scale and absence of a beneficiation plant, which is needed to treat Jambreiro ores.

Whilst further investigations are required to ascertain Candonga’s operating metrics, Jambreiro, operating cash costs plus royalties are estimated to be A$22 (US$20) per tonne of saleable concentrate at the mine gate.

Subsequent logistics charges associated with road transportation to domestic steel mill customers are scheduled to be incorporated into selling prices. Jambreiro concentrate pricing is expected to be referenced to the international CFR China 62% Fe benchmark (“China benchmark”), adjusted for grade and quality characteristics.

Centuarus’s staged development plan budgeted an initial mine gate sales price US$53/t (after logistics ‘net backs’), which represented a discount exceeding 55 per cent to the prevailing China benchmark of US$120/t.

The China benchmark has subsequently contracted below US$100/t. Whilst linearity of its relationship with Jambreiro concentrate has yet to be tested, a similar discount would yield a selling price of US$39/t, after logistics net backs

At this price, our modelling indicates the Jambreiro Project generates an unlevered, pre tax Internal Rate of Return above 40 per cent. However in the absence of an offtake partner, reference price methodology surrounding Jambreiro remains a major source of risk.

Jambreiro Economic Summary

Status Financing BFS completed on main deposit

Licensing Fully Permitted 3Mt pa Capacity

Mine Life 10 Years + Reserve upside via ‘Compact’ Ores

Capital Cost US$52m For 1Mt pa at main deposits & Candonga DSO

Economics IRR 40% + Pre tax, unlevered, at mine gate prices at or above US$39/t

Table 5: Economic Summary of Jambreiro Project. Source: Centaurus. Wise-owl

Figure 5: Proposed open pits and site layout as per Jambreiro Bankable Feasibility Study. Source: Centaurus

Robust economics at net pricing of $39/tonne

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Asset Overview – Itabira Projects (100%)

The Itabira Projects consist of 3 exploration licenses spanning 41km2 in the State of Minas Gerais, Brazil, approximately 80km north east of the State Capital, Belo Horizonte. Vale’s 40mtpa Southern System iron ore operations at Itabira are situated within 30km, the State’s largest smelter, Usiminas’ Ipatinga, is located within 80km, and Arcelor Mittals’ steel works at Joao Monlevade and Timóteo are within 50km.

The Itabira Projects were acquired by Centaurus Resources Ltd in April 2008. The Company has subsequently delineated Indicated and Inferred resources totalling 49million tonnes at the Itambé and Passabém project sites. A scoping study on the Itambé project area was completed in August 2009.

Passabém – JORC Resources



Indicated 2.8Mt 33.0 48.8 1.9 0.03 0.6

M+I 2.8Mt 33.0 48.8 1.9 0.03 0.6

Inferred 36.2Mt 33.9 54.0 0.7 0.07 0.9

Total 39.0Mt 31.0 53.6 0.8 0.07 0.1

Itambé – JORC Resources



Indicated 4.7Mt 37.1 37.0 4.5 0.06 2.7

M+I 4.7Mt 37.1 37.0 4.5 0.06 2.7

Inferred 5.3Mt 36.2 40.9 3.5 0.04 2.1

Total 10Mt 36.6 39.1 4.0 0.05 2.4 Tables 6 and 7: Mineral Resources at Passabém and Itambe at cut of grades of Fe 27% and 25%, respectively. ~ 40% of the resources are of a friable nature. Source: Centaurus

Development Strategy

The Itambé scoping study appraised a staged DSO development initially producing 0.5Mt pa for domestic steel markets. The Passabém and Itambé mineral resource estimates were updated in late 2010. Concurrent metallurgical testing indicated the deposits are more suitable for a beneficiated development, similar to that being pursued at Jambreiro. Whilst further feasibility studies are required to establish the merits of such a development, Centaurus is presently prioritising capital towards Jambreiro.

Additional 49mt resource at Itabira Projects

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Financial Performance

As its mineral assets are still in the development phase, Centaurus is reliant on external capital to advance their development. To date, the Company has funded activities through equity.

Issued capital currently stands at $103.5million, or $0.43/share. The Company’s last equity issue concluded in May 2014. $5.5million was raised at $0.125/share, resulting in the issue 44.2million shares, expanding total shares outstanding by 22 per cent. To establish production at Jambreiro, we estimate the Company will require additional capital of at least $60million. Management is considering debt and equity financing structures.

Centaurus Financial Summary

Issued Capital $104m $0.43/share

Remaining Funds $4.9m Apr ’14 equity issue at $0.125/share

Jambreiro Capex $53m Dec ‘13 Revised Development Plan

Candonga DSO Capex $5m Sep ’14 feasibility to confirm

Working Capital $2m Estimate

Table 8: We estimate Centaurus will require a further $60m to establish commercial production at Jambreiro. Source: wise-owl

Valuation

Centaurus’s investment appeal rests in the development potential of its iron ore portfolio. We have focused our appraisal on its Jambreiro Project, utilising a Comparables based approach and Discounted Cash Flow methodology.

Per share valuations are derived from both methods by assuming pre production capital is funded 30 per cent debt with the balance equity at $0.10/share.

The Discounted Cash Flow arrives at a valuation of $135million which equates to $0.20/share. Our Comparables approach arrives at a valuation of $145million, which equates to $0.22/share. Applying equal weightings both methods delivers an aggregate valuation of $140million or $0.21/share.

Centaurus Valuation Summary

Method Assumption Valuation Per Share

Comparables 3x Reserve $145m $0.22

Discounted Cash Flow Price US$39/t $135m $0.20

Average $0.21 Table 9: Our two appraisal methods suggest Centaurus may be worth $0.21/share Source: wise-owl

~$60million capital requirement for Jambreiro

Valuation $0.21/share

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Comparables

Our peer based valuation of Centaurus is based on a universe of publicly listed companies with predominantly iron ore mining assets. The average valuation for existing producers is presently above $8 per tonne of Reserve. The average valuation for companies with assets in the development phase is presently above $2 per tonne of Reserve.

Developer valuations include forecast capital expenditures. Adjustments have been made for Companies with non-controlling interests, whilst non-producing assets without assigned capital expenditure have been omitted.

Figure 6: Valuations of Comparable Iron Mining Companies. Bars denote EV/Reserve multiple, line denotes Fe grade. Grey data points denote existing Producers, orange data points denote developers. Developer valuations include forecast capital expenditures. Adjustments have been made for Companies with non-controlling interests, whilst non-producing assets without assigned capital expenditure have been omitted. Centaurus is shown in yellow. Source: wise-owl, Company announcements.

Centaurus is presently in the development phase. Its current Reserve multiple of ~$1.30 per tonne stands at the lower end of the Developer peer group. After procuring project finance and commencing sales, the present valuation curve suggests a higher multiple is possible.

The Producer group average Reserve multiple is above $8 per tonne. Considering the grade characteristics of Jambreiro ore, we believe a multiple toward the lower end of the Producer range is an appropriate target.

Applying a $3 per tonne Reserve multiple offers a target Enterprise Value of $145million, post capital investment. Assuming equity proceeds are procured at Centaurus’s volume weighted average price of $0.10/share, the Comparables valuation equates to $0.22/share.

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Iron Mining Valuations

Reserve multiples suggest transition

to ‘Producer’ status offers significant value growth

Comparables based valuation $0.22/share

Producers Developers

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Discounted Cash Flow

Incorporating the December 2013 Staged Development Plan, we have modelled a ten year operation at Jambreiro initially producing 1million tonnes pa.

A staged expansion to 2Mt is forecast, funded by cash flow from a concurrent DSO operation at Candonga. We’ve assumed Candonga delivers 1Mt over a three to four year period.

Utilising US$39 per tonne as a base case pricing scenario for Jambreiro product, applying a 10 per cent discount rate, and 30 per cent debt funding to its initial capital requirement, we calculate a pre tax Net Present Value of A$135million.

Assuming equity proceeds are procured at $0.10, the Discounted Cash Flow valuation equates to $0.20/share.

Centaurus Discounted Cash Flow Summary

Metric Assumption Comment

Start Up Capex US$47m As per Jambreiro Revised Development Plan

Debt Funding 30% 4 Year Term, 10% interest pa

Saleable Output 2Mt pa Initially 1mpta

Operating Cost US$16/t per tonne beneficiated product @ 2Mt pa

Net Revenue US$39/t Consistent discount to Revised Development Plan

NPV10 A$135m pre tax

IRR 42% unlevered, pre tax Table 10: Parameters and key results of our DCF valuation. Source: wise-owl

Iron Ore Prices

Figure 7: Jambreiro Product pricing is expected to be linked to international spot markets, but discounted to reflect the domestic nature of sales. As the China benchmark has contracted in the order of 30 per cent year to date, we have applied a lower initial price assumption for our Discounted Cash Flow valuation than Centaurus’s Revised Development Plan, released Dec 2013. Source: Bloomberg, wise-owl

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120

160

200

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

US$

/t

DCF Valuation $0.20/share

Jambreiro (65% Fe Mine Gate)

Dec ’13 Revised Development Plan Aug ’14 wise-owl assumption

China Benchmark (62% Fe)

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Investment View Centaurus offers speculative exposure to the iron mining industry and Brazilian steel demand. We are attracted to the advanced status of its Jambreiro Project, where feasibility works have been completed to a Bankable level, and near term cash flow opportunity provided at Candonga.

Development of Jambreiro into a producing mine is the Company’s major value growth driver. Valuation multiples ascribed to existing iron ore producers are at least double those attributed to developers. This compliments our aggregated valuation of Centaurus representing a premium of 170 per cent to recent trading levels.

However, with almost two years passing since completion of the original Jambreiro BFS, marketing and execution risks are impacting confidence toward the stock. Management must contend with international price benchmarks one third lower year to date, and a funding environment contingent on offtake clarity.

Delivery of an offtake partner and subsequent funding are the major near term catalysts for Centaurus. Whilst they may require a recovery in international price benchmarks, a high degree of risk appears factored in to the stock price.

Changes to our base case revenue assumption impact Centaurus’s valuation by a factor of three. As Jambreiro presents a ‘turn-key’ opportunity to capture favourable market conditions, we initiate coverage with a ‘speculative buy’.

DCF Valuation - Sensitivity Analysis

Figure 8: DCF valuation is most sensitive to iron ore prices. Source: wise-owl

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

20% 10% 0 -10% -20%

DCF

Valu

atio

n pe

r Sha

re $

Deviation from Base Assumption

Equity Price Debt Funding %Margin $/t Discount Rate %

Valuation represents 170 per cent premium to recent trade

Three-fold valuation leverage to iron ore price

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Risks

Technical Risks

Whilst economic studies at Jambreiro have been conducted to a BFS level, there is no guarantee that actual mining and processing results will meet operating and capital cost forecasts. Feasibility studies are ongoing at Candonga, creating uncertainty surrounding its possible contribution to forecast expansions at Jambriero

Market Risks

Although the state of Minas Gerias hosts a significant steel making industry, and offtake discussions are underway, there is no guarantee Centaurus will be successful in marketing its planned 1mtpa production from Jambreiro. There is also a risk that revenue per tonne is lower than scheduled as pricing will be linked to international spot markets. The CFR China 62% Fe benchmark has contracted over 20 per cent from its 2013 peak, and there is no guarantee against further declines.

Funding Risks

Centaurus is reliant on external funds to sustain operations and requires capital investment in the order of $60million to develop Jambreiro into production. There is no guarantee the Company will be successful in procuring these funds. There is also a risk that future fund raising initiatives generate greater dilution than forecast in our analysis, which would negatively impact our valuation.

Scheduling Risks

Delays in project execution, expansion and financing could impair Centaurus’s valuation to present equity holders. Our Discounted Cash Flow valuation is sensitive to production forecasts, which anticipates sales from Candonga DSO in early 2015 and commissioning at Jambreiro main deposits during late 2015.

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The Bulls & The Bears

The Bulls Say

x Jambreiro offers near term development potential, is fully permitted and supported by a Bankable Feasibility Study

x Project development is supported by Internal Rates of Return exceeding 40 per cent at net prices at or above US$39/t

x Looming offtake and project financing offer major value catalysts

x Our base case valuation represents a significant premium to current trading levels

The Bears Say

x Revision of Jambreiro from a 2Mt pa operation in the BFS to a 1Mt pa operation has impacted confidence in its development schedule

x Iron ore prices have contracted 30 per cent year to date and further declines could significantly impair project economics at Jambreiro

x Absence of offtake agreement impairs confidence in local demand for Jambreiro concentrate

x There is no guarantee the Company will secure the necessary project finance required to bring Jambreiro into production

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Management Didier Murcia – Non Executive Chairman Mr Murcia is a lawyer with over 25 years of legal and corporate experience in the resources industry. He currently holds an Order of Australia and is currently Honorary Australian Consul for the United Republic of Tanzania. He is the Chairman and founding director of Perth-based legal group Murcia Pestell Hillard, and is Director at Gryphon Minerals Ltd, Cradle Resources Ltd, & Alicanto Minerals Ltd.

Darren Gordon – Managing Director

Mr Gordon is a Chartered Accountant with 20 years’ professional experience, predominantly in the mining industry as a senior finance and resources executive. Mr Gordon has had extensive involvement in financing resource projects from both a debt and equity perspective, including his previous position as Chief Financial Officer and Company Secretary for Gindalbie Metals Limited

Peter Freund – Non Executive Director

Mr Freund joined Centaurus in 2009, bringing significant experience in progressing major projects from exploration through to production. Prior to coming to Centaurus, Mr Freund was the General Manager of the Karara Joint Venture between Gindalbie Metals and Ansteel. He also worked for BHP at the Whyalla steelworks and iron ore pellet plant in South Australia, BHP Minerals Division in Melbourne and the Groote Eylandt manganese mine in the Northern Territory. In South America, Mr Freund has led the MIM team that constructed the world-scale Alumbrera copper mine

Mark Hancock – Non Executive Director

Mark is a Chartered Accountant with more than 25 years professional experience, including senior financial roles across a number of leading Australian and international companies including Lend Lease Corporation Ltd, Woodside Petroleum Ltd and Premier Oil plc. Since 2006 he has held senior roles at Atlas Iron Ltd, most recently as Chief Commercial Officer. Over that period Atlas has grown from a junior explorer to fast growing producer and member of the ASX 100. In addition Mark has served as Atlas’ representative on the Board of other ASX listed iron ore players, Warwick Resources, Aurox Resources and Giralia Resources.

John Westdorp – Chief Financial Officer

Mr Westdorp is a Chartered Accountant with 20 years resource experience. He is former CFO of Iron Ore Producer, Murchison Metals. He has held senior positions with North Ltd Group including 6 years with Robe River Iron Associate JV.

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Appendix - Discounted Cash Flow Year 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

Jambreiro Main

Output Mt

1 1.2 1.8 2 2 2 2 2 2 2

Revenue $USD

39 46.8 70.2 78 78 78 78 78 78 78

Capex $USD 47 1.17 24.904 25.606 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34 2.34

Opex $USD

20 24 36 32 32 32 32 32 32 32

Op CF $USD

(47.0)

17.8 (2.1) 8.6

43.7 43.7

43.7 43.7 43.7 43.7 43.7

Financing Cash Flow $USD

14.1

(5.4) (5.0) (4.7)

(4.3) -

- - - - -

Net Cash Flow $USD

(32.9)

12.4 (7.1) 3.9

39.4 43.7

43.7 43.7 43.7 43.7 43.7

Candonga

Output Mt 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3

Revenue $USD 3.9 11.7 11.7 11.7

Capex $USD 5 0.351 0.351 0

Opex $USD 2.2 6.6 6.6 6.6

Op CF $USD

(3.3)

4.7 4.7 5.1

Financing Cash Flow $USD

- - -

Net Cash Flow $USD

(3.3)

4.7 4.7 5.1

Total Cash Flow

(36.2)

17.2 (2.4) 9.0

39.4 43.7

43.7 43.7 43.7 43.7 43.7

DCF Valuation Summary

Total Cash Flow Pre Tax $289

NPV pre tax 10% $128

FX USD/AUD 0.95

NPV $A

$135

Share base

656

Value per Share $A

$ 0.20

Notes

1. All figures in USD millions unless stated other wise

2. Net Present Value and per share Value is pre tax

3. All salable output is presently categorized as Reserve, except Candonga material, which is Indicated (0.7Mt) Inferred (0.2Mt)

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Glossary Buy Increasing value of established business operations is likely to

yield share price appreciation Spec Buy Increasing value of a new or developing business operation is

likely to yield share price appreciation. Hold There exists an even balance of risks

Sell There is elevated risk of share price depreciation.

Stop Our recommended, pre determined sell price, to be executed if the share price fails to appreciate

JORC Joint Ore Reserves Committee. A body sponsored by the Australian mining industry and its professional organisations, which sets minimum standards for the measurement and reporting and mineral reserves and resources.

Exploration A category of companies that have yet to define resources beyond the 'inferred' category according to JORC standards

Resource A category of companies that have defined resources classified as 'measured' and/or 'indicated' according to JORC standards.

Reserve A category of companies that have defined mineral reserves according to JORC standards.

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Archives Natural Resources

Centaurus Metals (CTM.ASX) Aug-14 Initiating Coverage

Analysts

Sven Restel [email protected]

Imran Valibhoy [email protected]

Tim Morris [email protected]

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