cebu air, inc. 1st quarter 2019 results of operations 1q19 ir report.pdf · 17% s 1% e:33k s 64k...
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Cebu Air, Inc.1st Quarter 2019Results of Operations
10 May 2019
Disclaimer
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The information provided in this presentation is provided only for your reference. Such information has not been independently verified and, as such, is not guaranteed to be accurate nor complete. Neither Cebu Air, Inc. (“CEB” or the “Company”) nor any of its affiliates, shareholders, directors, employees, agents or advisers makes expressed or implied representations or warranties as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained herein and neither of them shall accept any responsibility or liability (including any third party liability) for any loss or damage, whether or not arising from any error or omission in compiling such information or as a result of any party’s reliance or use of such information. The information and opinions in this presentation are subject to change without notice.
EBITDAR, EBITDA, EBITDAR Margin, EBIT and core net income are not measures of performance under the Philippine Financial Reporting Standards (“PFRS”), and should not be considered in isolation or as alternatives to net income as an indicator of CEB’s operating performance or to cash flow from operating, investing and financing activities as a measure of liquidity, or any other measures of performance under PFRS. Because there are various EBITDAR, EBITDA, EBITDAR Margin, EBIT and core net income calculation methods,CEB’s presentation of these measures may not be comparable to similarly titled measures used by other companies.
This presentation also contains certain “forward-looking statements.” These forward-looking statements include words or phrases such as CEB or its management “believes”, “expects”, “anticipates”, “intends”, “plans”, “foresees”, or other words or phrases of similar import. Similarly, statements that describe CEB’s objectives, plans or goals are also forward-looking statements. All such forward-looking statements are subject to certain risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ materially from those contemplated by the relevant forward-looking statement. Such forward looking statements are made based on management’s current expectations or beliefs as well as assumptions made by, and information currently available to, management. There is no assurance that expectedevents will occur, that projections will be achieved, or that the Company and its management’s assumptions are correct.
10 May 2019
Business Updates
1Q2019: A GOOD START TO 2019
10 May 2019 4
Growth
Fleet: 70 (vs 63 1Q18)
Pax: 5.29 M (+8% YOY)
SLF: 84.2% (+2% pts YOY)
ASK: 7.06 B (+11% YOY)
RPK: 5.89 B (+14% YOY)
Revenue
Revenue: PhP21.18 B (+16% YOY)
Pax Yield: PhP3,732 (+7% YOY)
Cargo Yield: PhP28/kg (+11% YOY)
RASK: PhP 3.00 (+5% YOY)
Macroeconomic Drivers
MOPS Price: $76.50/bbl (-4% YOY)
PHPUSD Rate: PhP52.36 (+2% YOY)
Average for January-March 2019
Profitability
EBITDA: PhP6.07B (+52% YOY)
PT Core Income: PhP3.3B (+65%)
Net Income: PhP3.43B (+138%)
10 May 2019 5
3.8M passengers, up 5.9% YOY
4.4M seats, up 4.5% yoy
SLF 85.3%
Most extensive network*:
36 destinations, 68 routes
2,165 weekly flights
Market share of 53% = CPI of 1.03
market share > capacity share
CEB remains leader in MLA and CEB while expanding Clark hub
CRK: catchment area of est. 23M population, covering Region 1, 2, 3, the CAR, and Northern Luzon
DOMESTIC: GEARING UP CLARK EXPANSION
*As of March 31, 2019
CEB53%PAL
29%
AA17%
Others1%
1Q19 Domestic Market Share
Source: CEB Internal Estimates
33k
64k
1Q18 1Q19
Clark Capacity Growth
96%
10 May 2019 6
1.52M passengers, up 15.6% YOY
1.86M seats, up 11.2% YOY
Introduced MMNL-MEL and CEB-NRT, added frequencies to Japan and Macau
SLF of 81.7% vs 78.6% in 1Q18
Network: 26 destinations, 38 routes
560+ weekly flights
Network expansion plan:
Launching Cebu-Shanghai route
Up-gauging strategy for growth continues:
Osaka and Shanghai from A320 to A330
Adding 2nd frequency to Bangkok
INTERNATIONAL MARKETS DRIVING CEB GROWTH
Financial Results
1Q19 1Q18 % YoY
Revenue (Php M) 21,177 18,261 16.0%
Passenger 15,679 13,676 14.6%
Ancillary 4,056 3,306 22.7%Cargo 1,442 1,279 12.7%
Ave. Yield (Php) 3,732 3,483 7.2%Ave. fare 2,965 2,805 5.7%Ave. ancillary 767 678 13.1%
Cargo/kg 28 25 11.4%
Operating Exp. (M) 17,345 15,997 8.4%ProfitabilityEBITDAR 8,030 5,816 38.1%
EBITDA 6,071 3,988 52.2%EBIT 3,832 2,264 69.3%
Pre-tax Core 3,335 2,015 65.5%Net Income 3,426 1,437 138.4%
Margin
EBITDAR 37.9% 31.8% 6.1% ptsEBITDA 28.7% 21.8% 6.8% ptsEBIT 18.1% 12.4% 5.7% ptsPre-tax Core 15.7% 11.0% 4.7% ptsNet Income 16.2% 7.9% 8.3% pts
1source: Published MOPS and PDS rates
Net income more than doubled in 1Q19 amid yield increases, strong passenger growth and successful cost management!
10 May 2019 8
NET INCOME SURGES 138% to P3.4B in 1Q19 1Q19 1Q18 % YoY
ASK (M) 7,064 6,389 11%
RASK 3.00 2.86 4.9%
CASK 2.46 2.50 -1.9%
Fuel 0.83 0.92 -9.1%
Ex-fuel 1.62 1.59 2.2%
Fuel Vol (L) 205M 190M 7.9%
MOPS/bbl1 76.50 79.99 -4.4%
P/US$1 52.36 51.49 1.7%
In Millions of PHPMar. 31,
2019Dec. 31,
20182019 vs end
2018Cash and cash equiv. 22,512 16,893 5,620 33%Other current assets 7,967 9,052 -1,085 -12%
Property & equipment 96,090 95,100 990 1%Others 7,773 8,347 -574 -7%
TOTAL ASSETS 134,342 129,391 4,950 4%
Current Debt 6,545 6,615 -71 -1%
Noncurrent Debt 47,351 47,182 168 0%Other liabilities 37,007 35,492 1,516 4%TOTAL LIABILITIES 90,903 89,289 1,613 2%EQUITY 43,439 40,102 3,337 8%
Cash to Sales Ratio 29% 23%
Current Ratio 0.83 0.74Net debt to Equity 0.72 0.92
Adj. Net debt* to Equity 1.41 1.71
Cash and cash and equivalents = 4 months of revenues
New PPE and Debt:
• 1 new A321NEO
P1.8B increase in unearned transportation revenues on the back of higher forward bookings
Strong gearing ratio of 0.72x of equity enables us to leverage for growth.
*Adjusted net debt = net debt + capitalized leases and ARO liability based on the present value of future operating lease commitments.
10 May 2019 9
ROBUST BALANCE SHEET POISED FOR FURTHER GROWTH
in Millions of PHP 1Q18CASHFLOWS FROM OPERATING ACTIVITIESIncome after noncash adjustments 6,395
Net changes in working capital 3,039
Interest and taxes paid – net -560
Net cash provided by operating activities 8,873
CASHFLOWS FROM INVESTING ACTIVITIES
Acquisition of PPE -4,415Proceeds from disposal 1,060
Dividends from JVs and other non-current assets 38Net cash used in investing activities -3,317
CASHFLOWS FROM FINANCING ACTIVITIES
Proceeds from borrowings 2,965Repayment of debt -2,798
Treasury Stocks -89Net cash used in financing activities 79
Net foreign exchange difference -16NET INCREASE IN CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS 5,620CASH AND CASH EQUIVALENTS, beginning 16,893
CASH AND EQUIVALENTS, END 22,512
- Additions to PPE: final payment for 1 A321NEO and pre-delivery payments for future NEOs
- P1.1B proceeds from sale of 1 A320CEO
10 May 2019 10
CASH FLOW HIGHLIGHTS
2019 and BEYOND
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MACRO ECONOMIC OUTLOOK
10 May 2019
Fuel:
We continue to hedge in layers, to match our forward booking levels
Balance 2019 (May-Dec): 39% hedged
20% Jet swaps at ave. $83
7% Jet collars with ave. $84 cap
12% Brent collars, with ave. $68 cap
2020: 12% Brent swaps at $67 and Brent collars with a $73 cap
Forex:
We continue to create natural hedges:
Reduced USD debt to 58% of total
Ongoing USD spot and short-term forwards purchase program
Moving towards like for like currency acquiring, to create match of inflows and outflows
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PHPUSD Closing Rate
Source: Bloomberg (ticker FSSKM1 and USDPHP)
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SHORT-TERM COMMERCIAL andOPERATIONAL OUTLOOK
Forward booking update:
We have sold 41% of our seats for the next 3 months.
Grow domestic leadership by up-gauging Manila and with new routes out of Clark (CRK-ILO, BCD, PPS)
Pioneering Clark-Narita route
Marketing Cebu as transit hub to Philippine’s leisure destinations: Boracay, Siargao, Palawan etc.
• Pioneering Cebu-Shangai route
10 May 2019
Ongoing Flight disruption issue:
Last 3 days of April resulted in 54 domestic flight cancellations due to various factors: high traffic in and out of Manila, low levels of on-time performance, and consequential rolling delays affecting both passengers and crew
For remainder of the year, to increase resilience in network schedule and crew availability, we reduced active line of operations by 1 A320 aircraft as additional spare provisioning. This is a reduction of approx. 10 domestic flights per day.
Revised capacity growth outlook: 14% increase.
41% 37%
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2019 2018
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3-Month Forward Bookings
Bookings Capacity % Sold
Forward bookings for May-July as of April 30
41 new AC over the next 5 years (37 NEOS), replacing 30 old AC to exit, for long term, conservative growth outlook in the low teens.
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FLEET EXPANSION PLAN:BIGGER, NEW-GENERATION AIRCRAFT
Capacity 2019 2020-2023
A321NEO 236 seats 6* 26
A320NEO 188 seats 5 -
ATR 72-600 78 seats 1 3
TOTAL 12 29
YOY Seat growth guidance 14% 10%
CEB’s “Eco-plane” - NEO
15% reduction in fuel burn
Reduction in Nitrogen Dioxide and Carbon Dioxide emissions
Up to 75% less engine noise
Thinner, lighter seats
*1ST A321NEO arrived January 21, 2019
10 May 2019
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