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CD Equisearch Pvt Ltd June 5
th, 2015
Equities Derivatives Commodities Distribution of Mutual Funds Distribution of Life Insurance
J B Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals Ltd.
No. of shares (crore) 12.82
Mkt cap (Rs crs) 2962
Current Price (6/4/2015) 231
Price Target 288
52 week H/L (Rs.) 268.50/140.00
Book Value (Rs) (FV 2) 78
P/BV (FY 16e/17e) 2.8/2.6
P/E (FY 16e/17e) 24.5/21.7
EPS growth (FY16e/17e) -20.3/13.0
ROE(FY16e/17e/) 11.8/12.4
Beta 0.98
BSE Code 506943
NSE Code JBCHEPHARMA
Bloomberg JBCP IN
Reuters JBCH.BO
Daily volume (avg. weekly) 69757
Shareholding pattern % Promoters 55.8
MFs / Banks / FIs 3.6
Foreign 5.2
Non-Promoter Corp. 3.1
Total Public 32.4
Total 100.0
As on March 31, 2015
Recommendation
BUY
Analyst TANYA KOTHARY
Phone: + 91 (33) 44880023
E- mail: [email protected]
Figures in Rs crs FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e
Income from operations* 866.13 1021.87 1144.22 1296.52 1456.70
Other income 26.65 36.81 10.89 20.89 29.13
EBITDA (Other income included) 132.30 120.80 191.23 228.33 251.28
Net profit after extraordinary items 62.83 88.60 100.41 120.99 136.75
EPS 7.42 10.45 11.84 9.44 10.67
EPS growth (%) -5.6 40.9 13.3 -20.3 13.0
Equity^ 16.94 16.95 16.96 25.63 25.63
*Includes other operating income, ^ Equity capital would increase due to amalgamation of associates with JBCPL
Company Brief JBCPL, one of India’s leading pharmaceutical companies manufactures
& markets a diverse range of pharmaceutical formulations, herbal
remedies and APIs. JBCPL exports to more than 20 countries across the
world and earned more than 56% of its revenue from exports in FY14.
Highlights
� The company plans to invest Rs 140 crs in one of its API plant in
Panoli, Gujarat. The company plans to invest in this new capacity
and related infrastructure in the next 12-18 months.
� The company is ranked 36th in the industry, with its three brands
viz.Rantac, (anti-peptic ulcerant), Nicardia (calcium channel
blocker) and Metrogyl (amoebicides), featuring among top 300
brands in terms of both value and unit sales (IMS MAT March 2014)
� In FY14 the company has set up a wholly owned subsidiary
company Unique Pharmaceuticals Laboratories FZE in Dubai. The
business in Russia and CIS were transferred to this subsidiary. This
subsidiary has recorded sales of Rs 69.25crs in FY15.
� During Q4FY15 the company registered a growth of 11.6% YoY at
Rs 255.10 crs. The operating margins stood at 16.5%. On a
consolidated level the operating margins improved by 130 bps to
15.8% in FY15 as against 14.5% in FY14.
� The company has been paying quite liberal dividend for the last
two years (FY13-14) at 150% and this time the company rewarded
its shareholder with a onetime special dividend of 500% (over and
above 200% as regular) totaling it to 700%.
� The future outlook for the company remains positive and
expected revenues and profit to grow at a CAGR of 12.83% &
16.70%, respectively over 2015-17e. The stock at the price of Rs 231
trades at 24.5x FY16e earnings and 21.7 x FY17e earnings. Despite
marginal decline in EPS over the next two years resulting from
equity dilution, we reckon a re-rating of the stock is on cards.
Therefore, we recommend BUY on the stock with target of Rs 288
based on 27x FY17e earnings, over the next 9-12 months.
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Business Profile
Source: JBCPL, CD Equisearch
Company Background
JBCPL, one of India’s leading pharmaceutical company, manufactures & markets a diverse range of pharmaceutical
formulations, herbal remedies and APIs. JBCPL exports to many countries worldwide with a strong presence in
Russia, Ukraine, CIS countries and South Africa. The Company continues to invest in growing its share in the
regulated markets in USA, Europe and Australia. JBCPL has a strong R & D and regulatory set-up for development
of new drug delivery system and formulation, filing of DMFs and ANDAs. It’s state-of-the-art manufacturing
facilities are approved by health authorities of regulated markets.
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Overview of the Indian Pharmaceutical Sector
The Indian pharmaceutical industry has achieved an eminent global position and has been witnessing phenomenal
growth in recent years. It is well known that India is emerging as a world leader in generic pharmaceuticals
production, supplying 20% of the global market for generic medicines. The industry accounts for 8% of global
production, and is exporting to over 200 countries (1). India is a major vaccine producer and has 18 major vaccine
manufacturing facilities. These vaccines are used for the national and international market (150 countries) which
makes India a major vaccine supplier across the globe. The Indian pharmaceutical industry is estimated to grow at
20 per cent compound annual growth rate (CAGR) over the next five years, as per India Ratings, a Fitch Group
company. Indian pharmaceutical manufacturing facilities registered with US Food and Drug Administration (FDA)
as on March 2014 was the highest at 523 for any country outside the US.
Source: CMIE& Dept of Pharmaceuticals
Strong export growth was recorded over 2007-2008 to 2012-
13 a CAGR of 18%.This growth will be backed by $92 billion
of drugs going off patent in the next three years, increasing
traction for generic drugs globally and new generic drug
approvals for Indian pharmaceutical companies in different
jurisdictions. However, the domestic market revenue
growth (CAGR of 10.4 per cent over FY08-FY13) will
continue to be moderate. The said exports to the US will
continue to grow in the medium term backed by the largest
number of United States Food & Drug Administration
(USFDA) approved facilities outside the US as well as the
largest share of drug approvals over the last few years.
The Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) was valued at Rs
89,244 crores and the retail sector was valued at Rs 75,551
crores, both with a growth of 20 per cent in February 2015
over the same month last year. IPM posted CAGR growth of
11 per cent during the period 2012-15. Multiple factors like
prevalence of swine flu-H1N1, high growth in anti-
infectives, respiratory and pain market with expansion of
big brands has resulted in overall robust IPM growth of 20
per cent for the month. Indian companies continue to drive
growth in the market with a growth of 22 per cent in
February 2015. Cardiac and gastro intestinal, with
respective market share of 13 per cent and 11 per cent,
constitutes the second and third largest therapies.
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Investment Summary
Global Player
Manufacturing facilities
Location State Manufactures Facility Approved
1 Kadaiya, Daman Daman lozenges and tablets TGA, Australia
2 Plant TI-10, Panoli Gujarat tablets US FDA
3 Plant IV - 17, Panoli Gujarat Tablets, Injections, Lozenges MCC, South Africa
4 Plant IV -14 , Panoli Gujarat Injections, ointments & coldrubs MCC South Africa
5 Plant L -6, Panoli Gujarat Herbal liquids Health Canada
6 Plant D 9, Panoli Gujarat Diclofenac API US FDA, Germany EU - GMP
7 Plant UM 12, Ankleshwar Gujarat Tablets & Liquids NDA Uganda Source: JBCPL, CD Equisearch
Approved state-of-the-art facilities
JBCPL has placed high focus on contract manufacturing for projects awarded by multinationals globally and
growth of niche branded generics to strengthen stable revenue. The company’s state-of-the-art manufacturing
facilities with approvals from international health authorities such as US FDA, UK MHRA, EU GMP, TGA
Australia, MCC South Africa and MOH Ukraine and its wide range of products across injectable, lozenges, solid
and semi-solid along with strong regulatory and development support gives it the needed platform to succeed in
this business.
The company’s thrust is to increase exports. The various
initiatives taken in the past to increase exports and
increased focus on US business helped achieve a
growth of nearly 5% in FY15. API Business continued
its upward momentum with sales of Rs 103.76 crs. In
terms of activities, the company’s focus on promoting
and selling generic products, ANDAs, branded generics
including contrast media products, contract
manufacturing of various dosage forms, including
lozenges contributed to growth. The exports to Rest of
the World markets (other than Russia – CIS region)
continued to show robust performance at Rs 350.11 a
growth of 16.83% in Rupee terms. Accordingly the
company will invest in new ANDAs every year.
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Contrast Media
JBCPL is one of the top three companies in the field of contrast media in India market. The contrast media products
of JBCPL, caters to niche radio-diagnostic products used in CT Scan, MRI and Cath Lab through 30 sales
representatives that calls on hospitals and radiologists. Lopamidol, lohexol, Gadopentetate dimeglumine,
Diatrizoate Meglumine are some the contrast media products that they market in India. It-licensed a new
Ultrasound Contrast Imagining product (Definity) of Latheus Medical Imaging Inc from USA. In FY14 the company
achieved a growth of 25% in this segment. In FY15, this segment achieved a growth of 8% YoY at Rs 35.13crs.
Renewed thrust in this segment has helped to achieve the stated growth.
Prescription products
The Indian pharmaceutical sector has come a long way from being primarily generics manufacturer to supplying
complex formulations to global pharmaceutical markets and the sector has witnessed a significant evolution over
the last few decades. The Indian pharmaceutical market (IPM) was valued at Rs 89,244 crores and the retail sector
was valued at Rs 75,551 crores, both with a growth of 20 per cent in February 2015 over the same month last year.
IPM posted CAGR growth of 11 per cent during the period 2012-15. The prescription based formulations business
of the company registered 16% growth.
The company’s growth strategy includes focusing on growing therapeutic segments like anti-infective,
cardiovascular, pain management and gastrointestinal, new product introductions, deeper penetration in rural
market and increased focus on hospital business accompanied by CME and CDE programmes for doctors and
special marketing campaigns. During the year, the company also launched products in dermatological, anti-peptic
ulcerant and antacid segments. Despite the challenges before the company to grow domestic formulation business
and further as the sales in this business essentially depend on prescription generation which is essentially a slow
process, the company is quite hopeful of growing the business in this segment. Acute segments contribute 82% of
total sales. The current employee’s strength in India is 2480 as the company recognizes the important role played
by field force in growth of domestic prescription market.
Capex
JBCPL has drawn to invest Rs 140 crs in creation of
additional capacity for tablets, liquid, ointments, vials,
eye drops and lozenges in order to seize future growth
opportunities. In addition the company is also planning
to increase the capacity of Diclofenac API Plant. This
expansion programme is expected to be completed in
next 12-18 months through internal accruals. This new
capacity is going to drive the company’s growth in long
term. It will boost the exports as 98% of API is exported
and 2% is utilized in domestic consumption. In Q4FY15,
API sales stood at Rs 25.59 crs as compared to 22.96 crs in
corresponding quarter last year.
BSU Contribution to sales in Q4FY15
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Financials & Valuation
The net sales for the quarter Q4FY15 at Rs. 255.09 crores
were 11.59% higher against net sales in the corresponding
quarter in the previous year. However, this is strictly not
comparable Y-o-Y due to commencement of sales and
distribution in Russia & CIS countries by the wholly
owned subsidiary company during Q1. The operating
margins stood at 16.5% in Q4FY15.
The domestic formulations business at overall sales of Rs.
96.18 crores registered growth of 13.21% in Q4FY15. The
prescription products sales at Rs. 86.38 crores registered
growth of 12.29%, while contrast media products sales at
Rs. 9.81 crores registered a growth of 21.99%.
The formulations exports at Rs. 124.48 crores registered
growth of 7.48% during the quarter. The exports of
formulations to Rest of the world markets at Rs. 81.07
crores registered growth of 9.38% in Rupee terms. The
exports for Russia-CIS markets at Rs. 20.44 crores were
9.57% higher. API sales for Q4FY15 at Rs 25.59crs were
11.52% higher compared to the same quarter last year.
The consolidated net sales (including other operating
income) at Rs 1144.22 crores in FY15, registered a growth
of 12% over the previous year. Consolidated operating
profit was at Rs 180.34 crs .The consolidated net profit
was affected by Rs.14.89 crs on account of depreciation of
Russian rouble. The consolidated profit before tax and
profit after tax stood at Rs. 145.55 crs and Rs 100.41crs
respectively.
A rich cash balance of approx Rs 607 crs in FY15, keeps
the scope for inorganic initiative by the company. The
company’s capex plan of Rs 140 crs is progressing well.
Capex will be funded through the internal accruals. We
believe consolidated sales numbers should grow at a
CAGR of 12.83% over the period of FY15-FY17e.
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Cross Sectional Analysis
Risks & Concerns
Drugs (Prices Control) Order, 2013
The company has faced certain issues arising out of Drugs (Prices Control) Order, 2013 which has reportedly impacted the
industry’s sales for some time during the year. Any such future changes in these norms can impact the revenue of the
company going forward.
Export
The company exported nearly 19% to Russia & CIS in FY14. The current political situation in Russia and Ukraine and
Depreciation of rouble against US Dollar has impacted the business. These are potential markets for the company’s
products and the company is watching the situation in these markets.
Margin pressure
Margins have been under pressure mainly due to sluggishness in sales and increasing competitive intensity. If the slide in
sales persists, then maintaining margins would get tougher. The rising costs on one hand and price control on other
remain a concern.
Company Equity* CMP^ Mcap* Sales*# Profit* OPM NPM# ROE
Mkt
cap /
sales P/BV P/E
Sun Pharma.Inds. 241 832 200106 27433 4744 28.5 17.3 21.1 7.3 7.6 42.2
Dr Reddy's Labs 85 3422 58304 14819 2218 17.1 15.0 22.0 3.9 5.2 26.3
Aurobindo Pharma 29 1313 38331 12121 1576 29.0 13.0 35.4 3.2 7.3 24.3
Glenmark Pharma 28 835 23545 6645 662 15.6 10.0 22.1 3.5 6.0 35.6
Piramal Enterprise 35 976 16843 5123 460 17.3 9.0 4.4 3.3 1.4 36.6
JBCPL 26 231 2962 1144 100 15.8 8.8 9.9 2.6 3.0 29.5
^CMP as om 4/6/2015
* in Rs Crs
# Sales & NPM FY15
** ROE FY15
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Financials
Quarterly Results Standalone Figures in Rs crs
Q4FY15 Q4FY14 % chg. FY15 FY14 % chg.
Income from operations 255.10 228.60 11.59 1061.43 956.53 10.97
Other income 4.31 14.22 -69.69 10.41 41.69 -75.03
Total income 259.41 242.82 6.83 1071.84 998.22 7.38
Total expenditure 212.88 210.83 0.97 868.48 870.94 -0.28
PBIDT 46.53 31.99 45.45 203.36 127.28 59.77
Interest 0.22 0.86 -74.42 6.65 6.13 8.48
Depreciation 7.58 6.17 22.85 37.60 27.17 38.39
PBT 38.73 24.96 55.17 159.11 93.98 69.30
Tax 12.99 3.52 269.03 45.52 25.56 78.09
PAT 25.74 21.44 20.06 113.59 68.42 66.02
Extraordinary item - - - 0.00 -46.96 -
Adjusted net profit 25.74 21.44 20.06 113.59 115.38 -1.55 EPS (F.V. 2) 3.04 2.53 20.16 13.40 13.61 -1.55
Consolidated Income Statement Figures in Rs crs
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e
Income from operations 866.13 1021.87 1144.22 1296.52 1456.70
Growth (%) 8.0 18.0 12.0 13.31 12.35
Other Income 26.65 36.81 10.89 20.89 29.13
Total Income 892.78 1058.68 1155.11 1317.41 1485.83
Total Expenditure 760.48 937.88 963.88 1089.08 1234.55
EBITDA 132.30 120.80 191.23 228.33 251.28
Interest 4.06 5.33 7.04 7.26 5.70
EBDT 128.24 115.47 184.19 221.07 245.58
Depreciation 24.66 28.02 38.64 45.72 47.39
Tax 24.13 25.95 45.14 54.36 61.44
Reported PAT 79.45 61.50 100.41 120.99 136.75
Extraordinary item 16.62 -27.10 - - -
Adjusted Net Profit 62.83 88.60 100.41 120.99 136.75
EPS (Rs.) 7.42 10.45 11.84 9.44 10.67
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Consolidated Balance Sheet Figures in Rs crs
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e
SOURCES OF FUNDS
Share Capital 16.94 16.95 16.96 25.63 25.63
Reserves 1003.33 1025.87 977.91 1037.20 1112.25
Total Shareholders Funds 1020.27 1042.82 994.87 1062.83 1137.88
Total Debt 50.10 93.20 127.28 105.00 85.00
Other Liabilities 8.23 12.19 12.03 11.00 10.00
Total Liabilities 1078.60 1148.21 1134.18 1178.83 1232.88
APPLICATION OF FUNDS
Gross Block 537.54 540.54 652.36 702.36 727.36
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 203.06 229.99 268.63 314.35 361.74
Net Block 334.48 310.55 383.73 388.01 365.62
Capital Work in Progress 4.73 46.36 - - -
Investments 397.67 500.01 551.27 490.00 475.00
Current Assets, Loans & Advances
Inventory 104.53 134.40 150.27 165.41 187.31
Sundry Debtors 191.27 235.51 262.35 285.11 321.85
Cash and Bank 156.23 11.81 25.19 13.72 62.78
Loans and Advances 96.98 101.67 97.27 100.00 95.00
Total CA & LA 549.01 483.39 535.08 564.24 666.94
Current liabilities 156.07 147.80 180.91 189.50 202.77
Provisions 40.54 35.76 151.62 71.70 71.70
Total Current Liabilities 196.61 183.56 332.53 261.20 274.47
Net Current Assets 352.40 299.83 202.55 303.03 392.47
Net Deferred Tax -24.98 -19.25 -20.21 -20.21 -20.21
Other Assets 14.30 10.71 16.84 18 20
Total Assets 1078.60 1148.21 1134.18 1178.83 1232.88
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Key Financial Ratios
FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16e FY17e
Growth Ratios
Revenue (%) 8.0 18.0 12.0 13.3 12.4
EBIDTA (%) -16.3 36.8 27.8 19.4 10.1
Net Profit (%) -5.6 41.0 13.3 20.5 13.0
EPS (%) -5.6 40.9 13.3 -20.3 13.0
Margins
Operating Profit Margin (%) 12.2 14.5 15.8 16.0 15.3
Gross Profit Margin (%) 12.2 14.1 16.1 17.1 16.9
Net Profit Margin (%) 7.3 8.7 8.8 9.3 9.4
Return
ROCE (%) 8.0 10.9 13.4 15.5 16.9
RONW (%) 6.3 8.6 9.9 11.8 12.4
Valuations
Market Cap / Sales 0.7 1.1 1.5 2.3 2.0
EV/EBIDTA 1.2 4.5 6.5 11.2 10.0
P/E 10.0 12.3 16.8 24.5 21.7
P/BV 0.6 1.0 1.7 2.8 2.6
Other Ratios
Interest Coverage 20.9 22.8 21.7 25.2 35.8
Debt-Equity Ratio 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Current Ratio 2.8 2.6 1.6 2.2 2.4
Turnover Ratios
Fixed Asset Turnover 2.8 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.9
Total Asset Turnover 0.8 0.9 1.0 1.1 1.2
Debtors Turnover 5.3 4.8 4.6 4.7 4.8
Inventory Turnover 7.4 7.9 6.8 6.9 7.0
Creditors Turnover 12.8 13.2 12.8 12.6 13.4
Working Capital Turnover 2.2 3.1 4.6 5.1 4.2
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Recommendation
JBCPL’s wide geographical presence in international markets and strong product portfolio with high growth brands
and strong marketing capability gives positive outlook for overall business of the company. The company has crossed
the iconic milestone of Rs 1000 cr sales mark in FY14. The company has embarked on to the next phase of journey in
July 2011, post sale of the Russia-CIS OTC business, and the company has made a comeback in just three years by
effectively focusing on growth markets internationally. The supply agreement with Cilag GmbH International
(‘Cilag’), a wholly owned subsidiary of Johnson & Johnson has been functioning smoothly.
The increase in per capita income, and in turn the increase in per capita consumption of drugs, improved healthcare
access and increasing health awareness are expected to continue to aid growth opportunity in domestic formulations
business. As successful penetration into new markets will accelerate the next level of growth, the company believes
that its well established brands will be the strong pillar around which the company will grow.
The international business poses challenges, such as increased competition, rapidly changing regulatory environment
and increasing span of price controls in some markets. However, the company is optimistic about its good growth
prospects.
The R&D division of the company continues to play an important role in the company’s growth. R&D is currently
focused on the new formulations development and ANDAs filings. The company has enhanced its focus on US
market and plans to file new ANDAs and is also considering backward manufacturing of APIs used in these ANDAs
to make the business more profitable. JBCPL has envisaged capex of Rs140 crs to be spent in next 12-18 months. This
capex is progressing as per schedule. The consolidated sales in FY15 registered a growth of 12% YoY. The political
situation in Russia and Ukraine and depreciation of rouble against US dollar also impacted the business. The situation
has improved in these markets after April, but the company is cautiously watching the developments in these
markets. The company has around Rs 607 crs (Cash + Investments) as on FY15. The company does not plan to invest
this money in haste and will invest it when the right opportunity emerges.
The company has a consistent, strong free cash flow annually, with a low debt-equity of 0.1x. With the
commencement of the sales and distribution of products from its wholly owned subsidiary in Dubai, we expect
revenues and profit, CAGR of 12.83% & 16.70% respectively over 2015-17e. The stock at the price of Rs 231 trades at
24.5x FY16e earnings and 21.7 x FY17e earnings. Despite marginal decline in EPS over the next two years resulting from
equity dilution, we reckon a re-rating of the stock is on cards. Therefore we recommend BUY on the stock with target of
Rs 288 based on 27x FY17e earnings, over the next 9-12 months.
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