CRP7 - Climate Change, Agriculture and Food SecurityTheme 4, Integration for Decision Making

Bonn, June 2011

Options and alternatives

Global

Household

Behavioural change

Assessing impacts and trade-offs

Policy context Knowledge into action

Options and alternatives

T1, T2, T3

Global

Household

Behavioural change

Assessing impacts and trade-offs

Policy contextT4.3

Knowledge into actionT4.1

Data, tools, methodsT4.2

Global scenarios …

… regional scenarios …

(demand, land use, global prices, etc)

Inputs

Ecosystem services

(regional prices, regional demand, policy & market environment, etc)

Checks for coherence, consistency, viability

Evaluating options:• Incomes• Food security• Livelihoods• Trade-offs

… household assessment

… providing context and inputs to …

… providing context and inputs to …

Checks for coherence, consistency, viability

AggregationDisaggregation

Integration

VISION

• Provide an analytical and diagnostic framework, grounded in the policy context

• Synthesize lessons learned

• Effectively engage with rural stakeholders and decision makers

• Communicate likely effects of specific policies and interventions

• Build partners’ capacity

Objective One: Linking knowledge with action

Objective Two: Data and tools for analysis and planning

Objective Three: Refining frameworks for policy analysis

Integration for Decision Making · 4

Integration for Decision Making · 4

4.1

• Regional scenarios

• Vulnerability assessments

• Approaches to decision making informed by good science

• Approaches to benefit vulnerable, disadvantaged groups

Linking knowledge with

action

4.2

• Integrated assessment framework, toolkits, and databases to assess CC impacts

• Baselines, data generation & collation, scoping studies, and tool development

• Socially-differentiated decision aids and info for different stakeholders

Data & tools for analysis & planning

4.3

• Assess CC impacts at global & regional levels on: producers, consumers, natural resources, international transactions

• Analyze likely effects of scientific adap. and mitig. options, national policies

• Analyze differential impacts of options on different social groups

Frameworks for policy analysis

Major uncertainties to 2030 identified by regional scenarios exercise in East Africa

• Degree of regional integration (status quo / enhanced)• Approach to environmental and external stresses (proactive / reactive)

The way these uncertainties play out will dramatically affect agriculture and food security development pathways

• Priority setting• Impact assessment• Communications• CG centres, national & regional organisations, policy- & decision-makers

Vulnerability mapping

Domains defined by exposure + sensitivity + coping capacity

LGP delta >5% threshold

Domain Area (km2) Population

LLL 4,508,660 40,275,900

LLH 13,120,500 102,357,000

LHL 1,412,400 89,935,000

LHH 3,321,920 219,658,000

HLL 13,248,100 126,387,000

HLH 22,374,000 155,368,000

HHL 5,172,800 369,162,000

HHH 5,078,220 238,567,000

Baseline survey conducted in 36 sites, 252 villages, with 5,040 households

CCAFS outputs

• Sites for participatory action research• Guidance for research foci• Basis for formal evaluation of program impacts

Why useful?

Baseline surveys at household, village, organisational levels

New knowledge on how alternative policy and adaptation / mitigation options affect agriculture, food security, natural resources, trade, under climate change

Differential impacts of options on different social groups

Without climate change, child malnutrition falls except in Sub Saharan Africa

Without climate change, child malnutrition falls except in Sub Saharan Africa

With climate change, child malnutrition increases everywhere

With climate change, child malnutrition increases everywhere

• Priority setting• Impact assessment• Technology evaluation• Information provision & communications at several levels

Analytical frameworks for integrated analysis

Common themes

• Data collection, storage, manipulation (climate data downscaling, weather grids, baselines, site characterisation data, …)

• Model development, meta-analyses and dissemination (crop / livestock models, integrated assessment models, inventories, wikis, …)

• Targeting for CCAFS and beyond, and evaluation of alternatives (policy, technology, investments)

Can help to play a coordinating role among different partners

• Inventories of activities• Look for synergies and gaps, and facilitate activities• Getting results used (knowledge into action)• Capacity building

Theme 4 integration