cc-slocan-fire gu-pdf 2-25-17 pt2 · 2019. 8. 6. · public presentation february 1-2, 2017 new...
TRANSCRIPT
Slocan Integral Forestry CooperativePublic Presentation
February 1-2, 2017 New Denver - Winlaw, BC
Greg Utzig Kutenai Nature Investigations Ltd.Nelson, BC CANADA
Climate Disruption
What does it mean for wildfire and ecosystems?Should we care?
Can we do anything?
Part 2 – Potential Ecosystem Impacts
l Global climate disruption – What is happening? and Why?
l What do local climate projections indicate?
l What may this mean for local ecosystems?
l What mechanisms may contribute to change?l What can we do?
2
Part 1
Part 2
Part 3
GCM / Scenario Combinations
Adapted from: Murdock and Spittlehouse 2010 3
2050s Projection Scenarios for British ColumbiaAnnual Temperature and Precipitation
Blue diamonds recommended scenariosGreen/ Purple - scenarios investigated for the Kootenays
MIROC32hires A1B-run1Very Hot/ Dry
Hot/ Wet
Warm/ Moist
Projecting increased annual precipitation
Precipitation Change (%)
Ann
ual T
empe
ratu
re C
hang
e (o C
)
Pro
ject
ing
incr
ease
dan
nual
tem
pera
ture
Biogeoclimatic (BEC) Zones
4
By: Daniel Mosquin
Interior Cedar –Hemlock
Ponderosa Pine
Engelmann Spruce –Subalpine Fir
Grasslands/Sage Brush
Ecosystem Units as “Bioclimate Envelopes”
Adapted from: Hamann and Wang 2006 & Roberts and Hamann 2011
Warm / dry
ContinentalMaritime
Cold / wet
o
oX
x
?
BiogeoclimaticZones
5
Interior Cedar-Hemlock
Example of ashift in bioclimate
Climatic Variables
A Range of ProjectedBioclimate Envelopes
6
Warm/ Moist2080s
Very Hot/ Dry2080s
Hot/ Wet2080s
Original data from: Roberts and Hamann, U of A; HadCM3_B1, CGCM3_A3, HadGEM_A1B
AlpineAlpine parklandWet subalpine forestDry subalpine forestCoastal hemlockTransitional coast/ interior hemlockMontane/sub-boreal spruce forestWet interior cedar/ hemlockMoist interior cedar/ hemlockDry interior cedar hemlockGrand fir/ Douglas-firWet Douglas-firDry Douglas-firPonderosa pine savanahGrassland/ steppe
Current Locations of Bioclimates Projectedfor the Future in the Columbia/Kootenays
7
Study Area
Original data from: Roberts and Hamann, U of A
AlpineAlpine parklandWet subalpine forestDry subalpine forestCoastal hemlockTransitional coast/ interior hemlockMontane/sub-boreal spruce forestWet interior cedar/ hemlockMoist interior cedar/ hemlockDry interior cedar hemlockGrand fir/ Douglas-firWet Douglas-firDry Douglas-firPonderosa pine savanahGrassland/ steppe
Current 2020sHabitat projections for Ponderosa Pine
From: Laura Gray 2010
8Nelson
Species OccurrenceDegree of Agreement
18 GCM scenarios
Current 2050sHabitat projections for Ponderosa Pine
From: Laura Gray 2010
9Nelson
Species OccurrenceDegree of Agreement
18 GCM scenarios
Current 2080sHabitat projections for Ponderosa Pine
From: Laura Gray 2010
10Nelson
Species OccurrenceDegree of Agreement
18 GCM scenarios
CurrentHabitat projections for Engelmann Spruce
From: Laura Gray 2010
11
2020s
Nelson
Species OccurrenceDegree of Agreement
18 GCM scenarios
Current 2050sHabitat projections for Engelmann Spruce
From: Laura Gray 2010
12Nelson
Species OccurrenceDegree of Agreement
18 GCM scenarios
Current 2080sHabitat projections for Engelmann Spruce
From: Laura Gray 2010
13Nelson
Species OccurrenceDegree of Agreement
18 GCM scenarios
Ecosystem Response
EcosystemRange Shifts
(rarely)
Ecosystem Re-organization(much more likely)
14
15
“We have options, but the past is not one of them”Sauchyn and Kulshreshtha 2008, p.295
“Times have changed – no longer is our goal sustainable development …. our goal must now be sustainable survival”
Blackstock 2008, p.15
www.kootenayresilience.org
It is all about that thin little layer of air