cc parliament seminar[1]

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ภภภภภภภภภภภ : ภภภภภภภภภ ภภภภภ ภภภภภภภภภ ภภภภภภ ภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภ ภภภภภภ ภภภภภภภภภภภภภ ภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภ ภภภ ภภภภภภภภภภภภภ ภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภ ภภภภภภภ ภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภ เเเเเเเ ภภ. ภภภภภภภภ ภภภภภภภภภ ภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภ ภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภ (IPCC) ภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภ ภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภภ 22 ภภภภภภภภ

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  • 1. : . (IPCC) 222550

2.

    • (Adaptation)
    • (Mitigation) -

3. RU : CO 2 , CH 4 , N 2 O Greenhouse effects ( ) Global warming ( ) Climate change ( ) 4. / IPCC . .2550 1000.074 0.018 500.128 0.026 12 1850): 1998,2005,2003,2002,2004,2006, 2001,1997,1995,1999, 1990 ,2000 5.

6.

Mt.Kilimanjaro,Tanzania 1993 2000 IUCN 7.

  • NASA

8.

  • 125,000 4 6

( Paleoclimatic)Paris 2007, summary 1.9 - 4.6C 7 125,000 9. 5 10 440$US13 / 72 / 5 10.

  • ( )

11. (BP 1950) 420,000 ( ) CO 2Concentration (ppmv) (2100) (2001 ) (1750 ) 12. : - - United Nation Framework Convention on Climate Change ( UNFCCC ) 1992 Conference of the Parties ( COP ) Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change ( IPCC ) 1988 UNEP & WMO 13. (key words) UNFCCC

  • GHG stabilization-
  • Ecosystem adaptation-
  • Ensure food production-
  • Sustainable economic development-
  • ( )
  • &

14. . .2542(data from World Resource Institute, 2000) 0.6 % 15. . .2542 (data from World Resource Institute, 2000) 16. GDP650.0 26.4 9,008,507 4.6 288 USA 440.0 3.8 1,294,359 1.0 59 UK 208.0 1.0 335,570 0.1 7 Switzerland 444.0 7.9 2,680,002 1.3 81 Germany 495.0 0.5 165,787 0.1 5 Finland 643.0 0.3 113,426 0.1 4 Singapore 391.0 16.7 5,687,635 2.1 127 Japan 578.0 0.3 111,617 0.4 23 Malaysia 700.0 3.0 1,040,312 20.8 1,294 China 445.0 0.5 170,338 1.0 64 Thailand 582.0 100 34,109,900 100 6,211 world tons/million$ % Total % Total CO 2Emissions / GDP (1999) GDP (2000) (million) Population (2000) (million) / 17. ( .) First commitment period

  • Annex 1 countries
  • (41 )
  • .7%1990
  • Non-Annex I

18. Kyoto Protocal (KP) & Clean Development Mechanism (CDM)

  • KP & CDMUNFCCC
  • KP(Annex I)UNFCCC( )
  • (non Annex I) (Clean Development Mechanism, CDM)
  • CDM $ .

19.

  • (Adaptation)
  • (Mitigation):

( ) 20. ( Climate Change Scenarios)

          • (Mitigation) ? (carbon neutral)
  • (Impact) ?
  • (Adaptation) ?

21. (General Circulation Model, CGM) /Climate Model (Emission scenario) : (Adaptation) (Climate change scenario) 22. SRES: (Special Report on Emission Scenarios) A1Fl A1T A1B 23. 2-4 B1 A1Fl 24. (Temperature scenarios) 1000 B1 A1Fl 25. &

  • 1.5 2.5o C 20-30 %
  • 4o C

3.2- 4 590-710 2.8-3.2 435-590

      • 2.0-2.4

445-490 ( o C) ( ) 26. 27. J. Sheehy, IRRI (C) % 100 80 40 60 20 0 32 34 36 38 40 42 Satake & Yoshida (1978) and Horie (1993) Akihikari N22 BKN6624-46-2 28.

29.

    • &
    • ,

30. UK 89 31. 1991-2000( . .2534-2543 ) Million Baht 32. 33. 34. . . . 35. 36. (Mitigation) World at night from space by NASA 37. (sector) , , , , , ,hybrid vehicle, ( ), ,biofuels, , , ,( , , , ( biofuel)) 38. , , , , , , , ,(bioenergy) 39. , , (end-use) 40. IPCC:Developing countries will be affectedhardest by climate change because lack ofknowledge, technology, institutions for adaptation IPCC: 41.

  • 2
    • - ( IPCC)
    • - UNFCCC ( COP)

42. (IPCC, 2002) 43. (IPCC) ( ) UNFCCC, COP, K P ( ) 1 2 3 4 GEF 5 44. 45. Climate change www.ru.ac.th/climate-change 46. (IPCC, 2001)

  • :
  • Heat stress

&

  • :

21 47. (IPCC, 2001) 21

  • :

( tropical cyclone )

  • :

( El Nino ) 48.

  • Weather Forecast
  • World Meteorological Organization (WMO)30
  • Climate Scenario

Weather Climate 49. 50. 25 85% 15% 80% 20% % 48 % 52% %