cber-lied reppgort on housing-market conditions … · las vegas housing-market conditions, volume...

CBER-LIEDReport on Housing-Market Conditionsp g

Volume 58, 1st Quarter, 2011CBER and Lied Institute Report

Housing Market Continues to SinkUnited States:

Amid a slow U.S. economic recovery, the national housing market indicators continued to show a worsening of the market during the first quarter of 2011. The fear of a shadow inventory of financially distressed homes, weak demand, and a lack of credit availability are weighing on the housing market and are contributing to a decline in home prices. The S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, covering all nine U.S. census divisions, was down by 4.2%, compared to the fourth quarter of 2010. The year-to-year decline was 5.1%. At a value of 125.4, the U.S. composite index was back to its mid-2002 level. Home-price declines were widespread. Both the 10-city and 20-city composite indexes were down by an annual rate of 3.6% and 2.9%, respectively.a

The declining home values raise the probability of a negative equity position (“underwater” homes) and most likely will increase the loan delinquency and default rates. At the national level, in the first quarter of 2011, 27.7% of all residential properties with a mortgage had a negative equity (22.7%) or had less than a 5% equity. These figures indicate slight improvements (aboutequity (22.7%) or had less than a 5% equity. These figures indicate slight improvements (about 0.2%) compared to the fourth quarter of 2010, when 23.1% of all mortgaged residential properties had a negative equity, and 4.8% had less than a 5% equity. For the first quarter of 2011, 18% of mortgage borrowers without a home equity loan and 38% of borrowers with a home equity loan were underwater. The default rate continues to increase with the size of negative equity. For example, the 2011 first quarter default rate among homes with up to 5% underwater was about 2%. The homes that were underwater by 150% or more had a default rate of close to 12% b12%.

During the first quarter of 2011, 681,153, or 0.52% of all housing units in the nation received a foreclosure filing. This figure is 15 percent and 27 percent lower than the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2010, respectively. Default notices, at 197,112, were also down by 17 percent and 35 percent from the fourth and first quarters of 2010, respectively. A total of 215,046 properties were foreclosed on. This figure is 6% and 17% lower than those of the fourth quarter and first quarter of 2010 respectively Foreclosed homes accounted for 28% of residential salesand first quarter of 2010, respectively. Foreclosed homes accounted for 28% of residential sales in the nation during the first quarter of 2011, up by 1 percentage point from the fourth quarter of 2010 and down by 1 percentage point from the first quarter of 2010. The average sale price of foreclosed homes, at $168,321, was about 27% lower than that of nonforeclosed home sales. The foreclosure discount was the same as that of the fourth quarter of 2010.c

As an attempt to stabilize the housing market, a total of 1,739,975 mortgage loans were modified d i J 2008 t th d f th thi d t f 2010 At th d f 2010 48% f th

Las Vegas Housing-Market Conditions, Volume 58, 1st Quarter, 2011The Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas

during January 2008 to the end of the third quarter of 2010. At the end of 2010, 48% of these modified loans remained current or were paid off, 4.4% completed foreclosure, 10.1% were in

Housing-Market ConditionsHousing-Market Conditions – Cont’dHousing Market Conditions Cont d

process of foreclosure, 9.6% were 30 to 60 days delinquent, and 21.7% were more than 60 days delinquent.d An additional 208,696 loans were modified during the last quarter of 2010.

Nevada:

In Nevada, the housing market showed some slight signs of improvement in the first quarter ofIn Nevada, the housing market showed some slight signs of improvement in the first quarter of 2011. In first quarter 2011, Nevada remained the top state in the nation with negative equity mortgages. The loan-to-value ratios were 69.7% nationwide and 114.7% for Nevada. This is a slight improvement. In the fourth quarter of 2010, the ratios were 70% nationwide and 118% in Nevada. In the first quarter of 2011, 62.6% of the mortgaged properties in Nevada were underwater (with negative equity), down slightly (2.7 percentage point) from the fourth quarter of 2010. Another 4.8% were near negative equity (less than 5% positive equity). Nevada was followed by Arizona (50%) Florida (46%) Michigan (36%) and California (31%) bfollowed by Arizona (50%), Florida (46%), Michigan (36%), and California (31%).b

Nevada posted the nation’s highest foreclosure rate during the first quarter of 2011. A total of 32,066, one in every 35, housing units received a foreclosure filing. However, this figure is 10.4% and 7.2% lower than the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2010, respectively. During the first quarter of 2011, foreclosed homes accounted for 53% of residential sales in Nevada, down by 6 percentage points from the fourth quarter of 2010. The average sale price of foreclosed homes at $128 589 as 5 4% lo er that the pre io s q arter The a erageforeclosed homes, at $128,589, was 5.4% lower that the previous quarter. The average foreclosure discount was 17.5%. Homes in preforeclosure sold with a discount of 6.3%, and Real Estate Owned (REO) sales had a discount of 22.5%.c

Las Vegas:

For the first quarter of 2011, the S&P/Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported an index of 97.18 for the Las Vegas metropolitan area, a decline of 1.1 percentage points since the previous quarter and a 5.4 percentage point decline from the first quarter of 2010. The home prices in Las Vegas are back to their May 1999 levels. At 66%, the Las Vegas metropolitan area led the nation in terms of homes with a negative equity, followed by Stockton (56%), Phoenix (55%), Modesto (55%), and Reno (54%). The CBER/Lied Institute calculation, using CoreLogic® data, shows that the median house price dropped from $135,000 in the last quarter of 2010 to $130,000 in the first quarter of 2011. The median price per square footage also dropped from $74 to $72.

While house prices continued to decline, the same as the rest of the nation, creating a perception of uncertainty in the Las Vegas real estate market, other statistics point to slight improvements. The Las Vegas metropolitan area also saw a slight decrease in foreclosure filings during the first quarter of 2011, but still retained a substantial lead in foreclosures over other U.S. metropolitan areas. The Las Vegas metropolitan area, with 26,275 units, or 3.2% of all housing units, one in


g p , , , g ,every 31 homes, had the highest foreclosure filing rate among the metro areas of the nation.

Housing-Market ConditionsHousing-Market Conditions – Cont’dHousing Market Conditions Cont d

This figure, however, is 11.5% and 7.7% lower than the fourth quarter of 2010 and the first quarter of 2010, respectively. (See RealtyTrac, April 13, 2011, report.)

The CBER/Lied Institute estimate an excess housing supply of 10,203 in the Las Vegas metropolitan area for first quarter 2011—a decrease of 3.6% from the fourth quarter of 2010 estimate (Table 1) The apartment vacancy rate at 10 6% was unchanged from the fourthestimate (Table 1). The apartment vacancy rate, at 10.6%, was unchanged from the fourth quarter of 2010. Clark County redeemed drivers’ licenses ticked up from 11,919 in the first quarter of 2010 to 14,257 in the first quarter of 2011. Residential-building permits increased from 1,073 in the fourth quarter of 2010 to 1,278 in the first quarter of 2011. Between the two consecutive quarters, the number of available single-family residential units for sale dropped by 116 to 22,167 units.

St h P A B PhD N D h PhDStephen P. A. Brown, PhDProfessor of EconomicsDirector, Center for Businessand Economic Research

Nasser Daneshvary, PhDProfessor of EconomicsDirector, Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies

Sources:a S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices (http://www standardandpoors com/)

Table 1Estimated Excess Supply of Housing Units in the Greater Las Vegas Area by Housing Type: 2011Q1

Type of Housing Unit1 Vacant Units2 Estimated Units in the Assumed Percent Normal Vacancy Estimated Normal Estimated

Excess

S&P/Case Shiller Home Price Indices (http://www.standardandpoors.com/)b CoreLogic® (http://www.corelogic.com/)c Realty Trac® (www.realtytrac.com)d OCC and OTS Mortgage Metrics Report, fourth quarter 2010. The report for the first quarter of 2011 is not yet available.

Type of Housing Unit Vacant Units Greater Las Vegas Area Normal Vacancy Rate (%) Vacant Inventory Excess

Supply3

Single-family detached 11,402 474,069 1.5 7,111 4,291

Condominium 1,813 89,911 3.5 3,147 (1,334)

Townhouse 1,027 39,767 2.0 795 232

Apartment 17 432 163 833 6 4 10 4187,014

Apartment 17,432 163,833 6.4 10,418

Total 31,674 767,580 2.8 21,471 10,203

1Excludes mobile homes and multiplex units2Vacant units listed for sale on Multiple Listing Service. Analysis provided by Residential Resources.3Estimated excess supply = vacant units less estimated normal vacancy inventory


Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit1

Permits: A Future Market Indicator

Permits Issued in Clark County by Type of Unit

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

0

Commercial Units 1,584 1,352 1,019 807 874

Multifamily Units 314 292 28 293 415

Single-Family Units 1,557 1,306 1,007 780 863

1st Quarter, 2010Total: 3,455

2nd Quarter, 2010Total: 2,950

3rd Quarter, 2010Total: 2,054

4th Quarter, 2010Total: 1,880

1st Quarter, 2011Total: 2,152

600

700

800

900

Residential-Building PermitsAll Types of Unit Permits Issued by Issuing Authority1

100

200

300

400

500

1st Quarter, 2010

Total: 1,871

2nd Quarter, 2010

Total: 1,598

3rd Quarter, 2010

Total: 1,035

4th Quarter, 2010

Total: 1,073

1st Quarter, 2011

Total: 1,278

Uninc. Clark County 828 673 467 607 473City of Las Vegas 510 461 199 183 173City of North Las Vegas 201 204 145 118 99Henderson 279 203 171 116 500B ld Cit 2 4 3 2 1

0

100


Boulder City 2 4 3 2 1Mesquite 51 53 50 47 32

Distribution of House Size in Square Feet2

Single-Family Housing Market: Details

4,8624,685

4,8905,007 4,906

4,000

5,000

6,000

Distribution of House Size in Square Feet

1,474 1,489 1,470 1,478 1,468

1,787 1,807 1,789 1,806 1,794

2,305 2,297 2,294 2,303 2,296

2,000

3,000

$800 000

Distribution of Sales Price2

969 988 964 959 985

0

1,000

1st Quarter, 2010 2nd Quarter, 2010 3rd Quarter, 2010 4th Quarter, 2010 1st Quarter, 2011

$710,000

$635,100 $650,000 $658,390$631,300

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$140,000 $150,000 $140,000 $135,000 $130,000

$200,000 $203,500 $199,000 $189,000 $180,000$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$102,000 $112,000 $104,800 $99,900 $94,500

$27,000 $27,490$7,513 $18,119 $25,000

$130,000

$0

$100,000


Note: The boxplots is a graphical presentation of the distribution of values. Each plot includes the minimum, the first quartile, themedian or second quartile, the third quartile, and the maximum values. The box in the middle represents the range of the middle 50percent of values, from the first quartile to the third quartile. The line inside the box shows the value of the median. The lower and


upper 25 percent of the values are represented by the lines connecting the minimum and maximum values to the box from below andabove, respectively. To avoid the effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market, the distributions are based onthe middle 98 percent of the actual data. Note that all distributions are “right-skewed,” due to a few high values.


Distribution of Price per Square Foot2

$194$187 $187

$180$175

$200

$250

Distribution of Price per Square Foot

$63 $67 $64 $60 $58

$78 $82 $78 $74 $72

$94 $99 $94 $91 $88

$50

$100

$150

$20 $20

$4$15 $16

$01st Quarter, 2010 2nd Quarter, 2010 3rd Quarter, 2010 4th Quarter, 2010 1st Quarter, 2011

$500 000

Distribution of Total Mortgage Value2

$459,890

$417,000 $417,000 $417,000$446,559

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$100,000 $109,125 $102,629 $100,000 $94,194

$133,531$144,000

$134,093 $131,853 $126,704

$182,754 $189,994 $186,929 $180,000 $175,437

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$40,000 $45,048 $44,000 $40,000 $32,000

$0

$50,000


Note: The boxplots is a graphical presentation of the distribution of values. Each plot includes the minimum, the first quartile, themedian or second quartile, the third quartile, and the maximum values. The box in the middle represents the range of the middle 50percent of values, from the first quartile to the third quartile. The line inside the box shows the value of the median. The lower and


upper 25 percent of the values are represented by the lines connecting the minimum and maximum values to the box from below andabove, respectively. To avoid the effects of outliers, data entry errors, or other anomalies of the market, the distributions are based onthe middle 98 percent of the actual data. Note that all distributions are “right-skewed,” due to a few high values.

Single-Family Housing Market: DetailsMLS Listed Inventory and Median List Price of Existing Single-Family Residential Units3

$145,000

$149,000

21,500

22,500

23,500

$133,000

$137,000

$141,000

18,500

19,500

20,500

July 2010 August 2010 September 2010

October 2010

November 2010

December 2010

January 2011

February 2011 March 2011

Available units (left axis) 21,750 22,624 22,719 22,570 22,624 21,656 22,010 22,307 22,184Median list price (right axis) $145,000 $144,900 $140,000 $139,900 $139,000 $135,000 $134,900 $132,000 $130,000

$129,00017,500

,

15.6% 18.5% 18.0% 18.3% 19.4% 20.2%90%

100%

Percent Existing Single-Family Residential Units Sold by Time on Market3

20.7%19.8% 21.1%

21.0% 20.8% 19.6%

12.0%12.2% 13.2%

15.5% 13.8% 14.0%

9.0%9.0% 9.4% 10.6% 11.0% 8.9%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

42.7% 40.5% 38.2% 34.6% 35.0% 37.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

October 2010 November 2010 December 2010 January 2011 February 2011 March 2011


0-30 days 31-60 days 61-90 days 91-120 days 120+ days


Number of Single-Family Home Sold, 1st Quarter, 20112

89166

89115

89131

89129

89149

89031

8908689084

89085

8908189130

89143

Number of Sales Q1 20110 - 10

11 - 50

51 - 100

8912489138

89110

89135

89117

89032

8910889030

89121

89134 8915689128

89107 8910189106

8910289104 89142

89146

89144

89145

891098916989119

101 - 150

151 - 200

201 - 300

301 - 500

89122

89015

89011

89119

89113

89012

89118

89139 89123 89074

89148 89014

89120

89147 89103

89005

8905289141

89044

89179

89012

89002

89178

89183


Apartment Market Details

Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area4

ZIP CODE

Furn

ishe

d

Unf

urni

shed

Furn

ishe

d

Unf

urni

shed

Furn

ishe

d

Unf

urni

shed

Furn

ishe

d

Unf

urni

shed

Furn

ishe

d

Unf

urni

shed

Rent Vacancy

89002 * * * 738 * * * * * * 876 8.9%89005 * * * * * * * * * * * *

3 BedStudio 1 Bed 2 Bed/1 Bath 2 Bed/2 Bath

Apartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code AreaUNIT RATES AVERAGE RATES

89011 * * * * * * * 953 * * 930 6.8%89012 * * * 758 * * * 957 * 1141 923 10.4%89014 * * * 655 * 707 * 811 * 1025 805 9.0%89015 * * * 623 * 699 * 758 * 880 736 10.4%89030 * * * 533 * 530 * 648 * 707 619 9.4%89031 * * * * * * * 859 * 1007 916 8.8%89032 * * * 702 * * * 825 * 961 798 11.5%89052 * * * 785 * 946 * 1015 * 1182 956 10.3%89074 * * * 775 * * * 907 * 1183 893 11.1%89081 * * * 700 * * * 816 * 953 817 9 5%89081 * * * 700 * * * 816 * 953 817 9.5%89084 * * * * * * * * * * * *89086 * * * 676 * * * 818 * 969 800 13.2%89101 520 457 619 507 * 626 * 657 * 756 563 14.5%89102 * 512 * 554 * 630 * 706 * 797 633 11.7%89103 * 572 * 620 * 678 * 777 * 907 707 9.5%89104 * 414 * 486 * 601 * 654 * 745 556 9.9%89106 * * * 538 * 566 * 686 * 880 637 15.9%89107 * 563 * 590 * 601 * 709 * 837 648 11.1%89108 * 514 * 619 * 642 * 756 * 925 719 9.6%89109 * 472 * 577 * 594 * 695 * 830 654 9.7%89110 * * * 562 * 582 * 693 * 873 690 10.9%89113 * * * 814 * * * 1045 * * 994 18.2%89115 * 513 * 540 * 565 * 648 * 743 612 13.5%89117 * * * 747 * * * 877 * 1057 866 9.5%89118 * * * 707 * * * 863 * 1043 808 8.3%89119 548 498 637 599 * 606 * 758 * 907 684 9.4%89120 * * * 648 * * * 780 * 930 757 10.2%89121 * 506 * 577 * 633 * 702 * 809 664 10.3%89122 * * * 662 * 811 * 791 * 932 769 11.2%89123 * * * 722 * * * 869 * 1026 840 9.8%89128 * * * 681 * * * 786 * 947 798 9.5%89129 * * * 677 * * * 847 * 1133 819 8.7%89130 * * * 567 * * * 723 * 959 724 8.8%89131 * * * * * * * * * * * *89134 * * * * * * * * * * * *89135 * * * 900 * * * 1093 * * 1060 13.6%89139 * * * 840 * * * 1001 * 1205 987 8.4%89141 * * * * * * * * * * * *89142 * * * 555 * * * 692 * 847 677 9 0%89142 * * * 555 * * * 692 * 847 677 9.0%89144 * * * 932 * * * 1112 * 1303 1133 11.2%89145 * * * 857 * * * 997 * 1185 1008 8.5%89146 * * * 614 * 605 * 765 * 928 735 8.6%89147 * * * 732 * * * 908 * 1071 914 9.0%89148 * * * 820 * * * 978 * 1118 936 15.0%89149 * * * 873 * * * 1184 * 1023 1023 9.7%89156 * * * * * * * 761 * 0 739 11.3%89166 * * * 799 * * * 1115 * 0 997 20.6%89169 641 444 715 519 * 612 * 684 * 0 619 12.7%


89183 * * * 776 * * * 906 * 0 905 9.4%METRO LV 557 510 671 649 914 686 724 812 * 969 754 10.6%* Number of observations insufficient for statistical purposes.

Apartment Market DetailsApartment Rental and Vacancy Rates by Zip Code Area4

89166

89115

89131

89129

89149

89031

8908689084

89085

8908189130

89143

Rent Q1 2011

89124

89122

89138

89119

89129

89110

89135

89117

89032

8910889030

89121

89120

89147

89134

89103

8915689128

89107 8910189106

8910289104 89142

89146

89144

89145

8910989169

Data suppressed

1 - 750

751 - 850

851 - 950

951 - 1050

89005

89015

89011

8905289141

89044

89179

89113

89012

89118

89139 89123

89002

89074

89178

89148 89014

89120

89183

1051 - 1250

8916689131

89149

89031

8908689084

89085

8908189130

89143

Vacancy Q1 2011

Data suppressed

89124

89115

89122

89138

89129

89110

89135

89117

89032

8910889030

8912189147

89134

89103

8915689128

89107 8910189106

8910289104 89142

89146

89144

89145

8910989169

0.01 - 8.00

8.01 - 9.00

9.01 - 10.00

10.01 - 11.00

11.01 - 13.00

89005

89015

89011

8905289141

89119

89044

89179

89113

89012

89118

89139 89123

89002

89074

89178

89148 89014

89120

89183

13.01 - 20.00


89044

Local Population and Unemployment Indicators

Clark CountyRedeemed Drivers' Licenses4

50,000

60,000

70,000

Clark County Redeemed Drivers Licenses

20,000

30,000

40,000

1st Quarter, 2009

2nd Quarter, 2009

3rd Quarter, 2009

4th Quarter, 2009

1st Quarter, 2010

2nd Quarter, 2010

3rd Quarter, 2010

4th Quarter, 2010

1st Quarter, 2011

Quarterly 16,397 16,101 17,461 14,715 11,919 11,842 14,604 12,783 14,257 Year-to-Date 16,397 32,498 49,959 64,674 11,919 23,761 38,365 51,148 14,257

0

10,000

25%

30%

35%

Clark County Redeemed Drivers' Licenses: Major Categories4

Q1 2010 15.2%Q2 2010 15.1%

Unemployment6

Las Vegas

5%

10%

15%

20%Q3 2010 15.6%Q4 2010 14.9%Q1 2011 13.6%

Q1 2010 9.7%Q2 2010 9.6%Q3 2010 9.6%Q4 2010 9.6%

U.S.

1st Quarter,

2009

2nd Quarter,

2009

3rd Quarter,

2009

4th Quarter,

2009

1st Quarter,

2010

2nd Quarter,

2010

3rd Quarter,

2010

4th Quarter,

2010

1st Quarter,

2011Percent from California 31.8% 31.4% 31.1% 32.0% 31.7% 32.1% 31.6% 30.0% 33.2%Percent Senior: Age 60 or Older 10.5% 12.6% 11.4% 12.8% 13.9% 14.5% 14.4% 15.5% 14.4%

0%

5%Q1 2011 8.9%


Median Home Prices in Selected Western Counties5

Housing Market: Regional Comparisons

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

1st Quarter, 2010

2nd Quarter, 2010

3rd Quarter, 2010

4th Quarter, 2010

1st Quarter, 2011

Clark County, NV $136,000 $140,000 $135,000 $130,000 $125,000Maricopa County, AZ $140,000 $145,000 $140,000 $135,000 $127,500Salt Lake County, UT $208,257 $210,736 $214,343 $203,589 $196,000Los Angeles County, CA $330,000 $345,000 $349,000 $336,000 $320,000Orange County, CA $500,000 $505,000 $515,000 $482,500 $480,000

$0

2 0%

4.0%

6.0%

Quarterly Increase in Median Home Price5

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

1st Quarter, 2010

2nd Quarter, 2010

3rd Quarter, 2010

4th Quarter, 2010

1st Quarter, 2011

Clark County, NV 0.4% 2.9% -3.6% -3.7% -3.8%Maricopa County, AZ -3.4% 3.6% -3.4% -3.6% -5.6%

-8.0%

-6.0%


Salt Lake County, UT -0.9% 1.2% 1.7% -5.0% -3.7%Los Angeles County, CA -2.9% 4.5% 1.2% -3.7% -4.8%Orange County, CA 1.0% 1.0% 2.0% -6.3% -0.5%

National Housing Market Conditions7

Latest quarterPrevious quarter

Same quarter previous year

% change from previous quarter

% change from last year

Permits 561 574 655 -2.38 -14.36Starts 563 534 617 5.36 -8.75Under construction 425 431 498 -1.24 -14.53Completions 537 576 658 -6.66 -18.30

HOUSING PRODUCTION

pManufactured (mobile) home shipments 45 42 52 7.09 -13.38

New homes sold 294 300 360 -2.00 -18.33New homes for sale 183 194 231 -5.50 -20.52Month's supply of new homes 8 8 8 -3.81 -1.73Existing homes sold 5140 4747 5167 8.29 -0.52Existing homes for sale 3472 3713 3478 -6.50 -0.17Month's supply of existing homes 8 9 8 -14.08 0.41Median new home price 221200 224300 222900 1 38 0 76

HOUSING MARKETING

Median new home price 221200 224300 222900 -1.38 -0.76Average new home price 259000 278000 275300 -6.83 -5.92Constant house quality new home price 274700 286000 281600 -3.95 -2.45Median existing home price 157867 169800 166367 -7.03 -5.11Average existing home price 205033 218033 212100 -5.96 -3.33Composite housing affordability index 191 183 176 4.67 8.31Fixed-rate housing affordability index 189 182 176 4.27 7.81Apartments completed 16300 16600 39500 -1.81 -58.73Percentage of apartments rented in 3 months 68 64 49 6.25 38.78Median asking rent 951 1030 1025 -7.67 -7.22Manufactured (mobile) home placements 42 43 45 -2 33 -6 67Manufactured (mobile) home placements 42 43 45 2.33 6.67Average manufactured (mobile) home sales price (in dollars) 59700 63367 64267 -5.79 -7.11Builders housing market index 16.3 15.7 15.7 4.26 4.26Builders current sales activity 16.3 16.0 15.7 2.08 4.26Builders future sales expectations 25.0 24.3 25.7 2.74 -2.60Builders prospective buyer traffic 12.0 11.3 11.3 5.88 5.88

Conventional fixed-rate 30 year 4.85 4.41 5.00 9.89 -2.94Conventional ARMs 3.27 3.31 4.25 -1.01 -23.04C i l fi d 15 4 13 3 80 4 38 8 68 5 71

HOUSING FINANCE

Conventional fixed-rate 15 year 4.13 3.80 4.38 8.68 -5.71FHA applications received 125561 143040 179229 -12.22 -29.94FHA total endorsements 102301 130026 140964 -21.32 -27.43FHA purchase endorsements 56281 65614 82072 -14.22 -31.43VA certificates 29159 31652 23450 -7.88 24.35PMI certificates 18358 32290 17152 -43.15 7.03

GDP (in billions of dollars) 15006 14870 14446 0.91 3.88Residential Fixed Investment (in billions of dollars) 332 334 340 -0.60 -2.32

HOUSING INVESTMENT

( )RFI percent of GDP 2.2 2.2 2.4 -1.50 -5.97

All housing units 131009 130845 130350 0.13 0.51Occupied units 112164 112451 111406 -0.26 0.68Owner occupied 74491 74782 74770 -0.39 -0.37Rental vacancy rate 9.7 9.4 10.6 3.19 -8.49

HOUSING INVENTORY


Housing-Market: Case-Shiller House Price Index

225

250

Figure 1Case-Shiller® Housing Price Index: January 1987 to December 2010

125

150

175

200

using Price

Index

50

75

100

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

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2011

Hou

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L as Vegas , NV U.S . (10‐city compos ite)

Sources:1 l b ildi i i i i1Local building permit-issuing agencies.2CBER/Lied Institute calculations using CoreLogic Real Estate Solutions–RealQuest data based on new and existing recorded home sales.3Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors data based on MLS records, which do not necessarily account for newly constructed homes sold by local builders.4CBER.5First American CoreLogic–Real Estate Solutions data based on recorded home sales. These statistics may differ from CBER/Lied Institute calculations based on the same data (reported on page 12) because First American CoreLogic uses raw estimates.6Bureau of Labor Statistics and Nevada Department of Training and RehabilitationBureau of Labor Statistics and Nevada Department of Training and Rehabilitation. 7U.S. Housing Market Conditions 1st Quarter, 2011 (http://www.huduser.org/portal/periodicals/ushmc/ushmc.html).

Note: As of the 1st Quarter, 2005 report, statistics in the Single-Family Housing-Market Details section have been revised to reflect only single-family housing.

©Copyright 2011 Report on Housing Market Conditions

Report on Housing-Market Conditions is intended for subscribers. Subscribers may reproduce the publication’s items if they cite the publication name and date, and note the copyright of the Center for Business and Economic Research and Lied Institute for Real Estate Studies University of Nevada Las Vegas.


Estate Studies, University of Nevada, Las Vegas.

Send address changes to: The Center for Business and Economic Research, UNLV, Box 456002, 4505 S. Maryland Parkway, Las Vegas, NV, 89154-6002. Phone: (702) 895-3191. Fax: (702) 895-3606. E-mail: [email protected]. Web page: http://cber.unlv.edu.

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