Causes of Displacement & Forced Migration: Historical Context

Berlin Summer Dialogue 201629-30 June

Susanne Melde, IOM© IOM / IOM Migration

1. Historical Movements 1850-19502. Displacement 1940-19603. Migration and displacement since 19904. Today5. Conclusion

Outline

1. History of migration 1850-1950

Key Historical Movements, 1846 to 1940Origins Auxiliary Origins Destination Number

Europe2.5 million from India, china,

Japan, AfricaAmericas 55-58 Million

India, southern China4 million from Africa, Europe, northeastern Asia, Middle East

Southeast Asia, Indian OceanRim, South Pacific

48-52 million

Northeastern Asia, RussiaManchuria, Siberia, central

Asia, Japan46-51 million

Source: Adam McKeown, „Global Migration, 1846-1970,“ Journal of World History 15, no. 2 (June 2014) 155-89.

World Population Growth (millions) by regions, 1850-1950

1850 population 1950 population Increase (%)

Receiving

AmericasNorth AsiaSoutheast Asia

592242

325104177

450370320

Sending

EuropeSouth AsiaChinaAfricaWorld

26523042081

1200

515445520205

2500

949423

153108

Source: Colin Mcevdey and Richard Jones, Atlas of World Population History (London: Penguin, 1978), via Adam McKeown.

Post-World War I Migration & Displacement

Refugees at Gare de Lyon in Paris, France, early in World WarI. The conflict is believed to have displaced as many as 7.5million people. Everett Collection via Wall Street Journal.

Asia:Migration peaked in the 1920s – 1.25 million migrants toSoutheast Asia in 1927 and 1.5 million to North Asia in1929.

Transatlantic:Transantlantic migration was affected most by WWI, butrecovered to 1.2 million migrants in 1924.

The Great Depression also curttailed migration, except thecommand economies of Japan and the Soviet Union, whichproduced up to 1.8 million migrants per year into NorthAsia by the late 1930s.

Source: Adam McKeown, „Global Migration, 1846-1970,“ Journal of World History 15, no. 2 (June 2014) 155-89.

2. Displacement1940-1960

Post-World War II 1940-1960

9 incidents displaced 81.6 million people

World War II40 million Europeans between 1940-1945

Partition of India & Pakistan14 million Indians & Pakistani

in 1947

Post-World War II13 million Germans from

Soviet union, Czechoslovakia and Poland, 1940-1950

Post-World War II11.3 million forced

laborers from European countries to Germany,

1945-1950

Post- WWII1 million Russians,

Ukrainians & Belarusans, 1948-1950

Formation of a communist government in North Vietnam

1 million Roman Catholics from N to S Vietnam, 1954-1956

Chinese Cultural Rev.385,000 political

dissadents form China to Hong Kong, 1950-54

Soviet suppression of Hungarian uprising

200,000 Hungarians to Austria & Yugoslavia,

1956

Source: The Washington Post

Est. of Israel750,000 Palestinians to

W. Bank, Gaza Strip, Jordan, Syria & Lebanon,

1948-1950

3. Movements since 1990

Migration vs. Population 1990 - 2015

Source: UN-DESA; note: UN-DESA Int‘l Migrant Stock data only begins in 1980

Global Population: 1950-2015: 296% increase1980-2015: 140% increase

5,36,1

6,97,4

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

1990 2000 2010 2015

Year

Total Global Population, 1990-2015in Billions

1,51,7

2,22,4

0

0,5

1

1,5

2

2,5

3

1990 2000 2010 2015

Year

Int'l Migrant Stock, 1990-2015in Millions

Int‘l Migrant Stock:1980-2015: 160% increase

Percentage Increase:

4. Today

COMPLEX FACTORS

*Source: IOMvisualization based onUNHCR Mid-Year Trends2015. Figures of asylum-seekers based on personswhose asylum claim waspending as of June 2015,regardless of the stage of theprocedure. Internallydisplaced persons (IDP)refers to individuals assistedby UNHCR, including peoplein IDP-like situations (withsimilar protection risks butnot reported as IDPs). Stocksrecorded by June 2015 orlatest available estimates.The map does not includenewly displaced by disastersduring the same period asthis is a flow-type of data,therefore not directlycomparable with stocks ofrefugees, asylum-seekers(pending cases) and conflictinduced IDPs as of June2015.

FORCED MIGRATION

Forcibly displaced persons, 2015

Source: UNHCR, 2016

Asylum applications to Germany, 1953 – 2016

Source: BAMF, 2016

816.000 821.500

1.236.000

1.418.0001.354.600

1.267.9001.266.000

1.049.000

949.200975.500 976.266 988.533

1.144.0001.088.478

973.392

781.116

668.230622.033 647.852 658.632 658.632 658.817 680.980

334.857

454.954

0

200.000

400.000

600.000

800.000

1.000.000

1.200.000

1.400.000

1.600.000

1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Number of Forcibly Displaced Persons in Germany, 1990 - 2014

Bosnia and Herzegovina Syria Iraq Turkey Other

Germany

Source: UNHCR

Germany

Source: EUROSTAT

Country of Origin of Displaced Persons, 2014

15%

11%

10%

8%6%6%

5%4%

35%

Syria

Iraq

Afghanistan

Serbia and Kosovo

Iran

Turkey

Eritrea

Russia

Other

Source: UNHCR

Source: BAMF

19.2

NATURAL DISASTER IMPACTS - 2015

113

203.4

million of new displacement due to natural disasters

countries

Million displaced by natural disasters in the last 8 years

Disasters caused twice as many new displacements as conflict

Figures: IDMC

Sudden Disasters & DisplacementNew displacements associated with disasters by scale of events, 2008 to 2015

Source: IDMC 2016, “Global Report on Internal Displacement 2016.“

Sudden Disasters & Displacement

India 3.7 million

China 3.6 million

Nepal 2.6 million

Conclusion

Conclusion Europe – transitioned from a

sending region (19th & 20th cent.) to a destination region (second half of 20th &21st cent.), due to development

Disasters are becoming an increasingly significant reason of displacement

Data on migrant journeysshows how deadly many routes have become

Contact:

Susanne MeldeResearch & Policy Officer

Global Migration Data Analysis CentreTaubenstr. 20-22

10117 Berlin, Germanysmelde@iom.int

www.gmdac.iom.intgmdac@iom.int

Twitter: @IOM_GMDAC

© IOM / Amanda Nero