causality analysis: agreeing on the problem and causes
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Causality Analysis: Agreeing on the problem and causesTRANSCRIPT
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section1
Causality Analysis
Agreeing on the problem and causes
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section2
Children in poor households are more frequently malnourished, and have more
learning difficulties when entering school
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section3
Children in poor households are more frequently malnourished, and have more
learning difficulties when entering school
No knowledge of health system support, low utilisation
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section4
Children in poor households are more frequently malnourished, and have more
learning difficulties when entering school
Children looked after by people who are poorly equipped to do so
No knowledge of health system support, low utilisation
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section5
Children in poor households are more frequently malnourished, and have more
learning difficulties when entering school
Children looked after by people who are poorly equipped to do so
No knowledge of health system support, low utilisation
Lack of knowledge of adequate child care practices
Existence of harmful traditional practices
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section6
Children in poor households are more frequently malnourished, and have more
learning difficulties when entering school
Children looked after by people who are poorly equipped to do so
Single parenting by poor mothers
No knowledge of health system support, low utilisation
Father’s absence accepted as norm
Lack of knowledge of adequate child care practices
One parent parent died
Orphanhood
Existence of harmful traditional practices
No practice of preparing expectant parents for
parenthood
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section7
Children in poor households are more frequently
malnourished, and have more learning
difficulties when
entering schoolChildren looked after by people who are poorly equipped to do
so Single parenting by poor mothers
No knowledge of health system support, low
utilisation
Father’s absence
accepted as norm
Lack of knowledge of
adequate child care practices
One parent parent died
Orphanhood
Existence of harmful
traditional practices
No practice of preparing expectant parents for parenthood
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section8
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section9
Causality Analysis
Create a Causal Tree
Use a Conceptual Framework
Validate Causal Analysis
Use for making strategic choice
Ask stakeholders!
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section10
Easier To Resolve
More Sustainability
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section11
Causality Analysis
Create a Causal Tree
Use a Conceptual Framework
Validate Causal Analysis
Use for making strategic choice
Good Choice
Poor
Cho
ice
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section12
Logframes
Detailed Programme Design
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section13
Logical Aproach
Detailed Programme Design
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section14
Agenda
Purpose and definition of the logical approach
Elements of a logical approach and template (Logframe)
How to manage critical assumptions
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section15
Purpose and DefinitionImprove logic of a programme or project model
Ensure that interventions are sufficient to make the results chain work
Minimize influence of critical planning assumptions
Increase the likelihood of achieving the intended results.
Monitoring indicators and strategic evaluation questions
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section16
Logical Approach
Used for:
CPR - Results Framework
MPO: PPO structure
PPO: project/subproject structure
for Project: sub-projects/activities
for PPA (annual projects)
for stand-alone donor proposal
for any other planning exercise
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section17
What is Logframe?
A Logical Approach is often expressed in form of a matrix (Logframe):
(a) the programme Results Chains (Activities; Outputs; Outcomes and; Strategic Results) and critical assumptions. “Vertical Logic”
(b) programme performance assessment elements: Indicators; baselines; Targets; Means of Verification; data disaggregation, critical assumption “Horizontal Logic”
Logframes visualize programme design and allow to assess the quality of programme design at a glance
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section18
A Logical Framework
Programme:
Programme Objective or longerterm outcome/impact:
Key Indicators: Data Sources: Assumptions (concerningRisks, External Factors):
Project 1: [Title of Project]
Project 1 Objective/Outcome: Key Indicators: Data Sources: Assumptions (concerningRisks, External Factors):
Course of Action: (main interventions, major anticipated activities, responsible institutions and type of neededinputs)
Project 2: [Title of Project]
Project 1 Objective/Outcome: Key Indicators: Data Sources: Assumptions (concerningRisks, External Factors):
Course of Action: (main interventions, major anticipated activities, responsible institutions and type of neededinputs)
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section19
Overview of a Logframe Template and Content
Output Statement1.2.2.
List Activities-
Output Statement1.2.1.
Assumption specific to Results Chain #2
Outcome Statement1.2.
List Activities-
Output Statement1.1.2.
List Activities -
Output Statement1.1.1.
Assumption specific to Results Chain #1
Outcome statement1.1.
AssumptionStrategic Result Statement
1.
GeogrFocus
MOVsTargetsBaselinesIndicatorsLevels#
Vertical Logic
Strategic Results (as defined in RF)
Outcomes (as defined in RF)
Outputs (as defined in RF)
Activities
Critical Assumption
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section20
Overview of a Logframe Template and Content
Output Statement1.2.2.
List Activities-
Output Statement1.2.1.
Assumption specific to Results Chain #2
Outcome Statement1.2.
List Activities-
Output Statement1.1.2.
List Activities -
Output Statement1.1.1.
Assumption specific to Results Chain #1
Outcome statement1.1.
AssumptionStrategic Result Statement
1.
GeogrFocus
MOVsTargetsBaselinesIndicatorsLevels#
Horizontal Logic
Indicators
Baselines
Targets
Means of Verification (Data Sources)
Geographic Scope
Critical Assumptions
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section21
However:
The value of the logical approach is not in filling the blanks in a table….
……but in reviewing and revising the interventions, until they are likely to achieve
the intended result
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Several iterations are usually required to reformulate the project, until critical assumptions or risks are minimised
Indicators need to including those that check whether the critical assumptions are still valid
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Achievement of Results X depends on 5 intermediate results
Managing Assumption
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Result X5
Intermediate Result A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Intermediate Result D
Will be done by other donor and Gov.
Assumption
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section25
Result X5
Intermediate Result A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Intermediate Result D
Will be done by other donor and Gov.
Assumption
Regular Supplies ensuredTraining manual developedQuality of study design ok
Assumption can be fully controlled by the
project.Remove assumptions
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section26
Result X5
Intermediate Result A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Intermediate Result D
Will be done by other donor and Gov.
AssumptionPolitical Stability
No droughtNo disaster
Stable economyNo war in the region
Irrelevant Assumptions
Remove Assumptions
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section27
Result X5
Intermediate Result A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Intermediate Result D
Will be done by other donor and Gov.
Assumption Community considers xxx a high priority
Politicians and officials believe in gender equality
Private sector will cooperate
Assumption should have been clarified
earlier.
Survey/Research before proceeding
with the rest
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section28
Result X5
Intermediate Result A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Intermediate Result D
Will be done by other donor and Gov.
Assumption Teachers will apply what they learned
Caretakers will bring child to facility
Children will use latrines
Assumption should be clarified.
Consider a pilot project before scaling
up
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section29
Result X5
Intermediate Result A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Intermediate Result D
Will be done by other donor and Gov.
AssumptionMonitoring system in place
Use of guidelines enforced
Good co-ordination between partners
Assumption can be managed to a large
extend.
Modify/add activities and budgets
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section30
Result X5
Intermediate Result A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Intermediate Result D
Will be done by other donor and Gov.
Assumption Favourable policy environment
Political commitment
Funds available
Demand can be mobilised
Serious Assumptions, but can be influenced.
Modify project design or objectives
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section31
Result X5
Intermediate Result A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Intermediate Result D
Will be done by other donor and Gov.
Assumption Improved services are matched by social movement
Attitude change required
Decentralisation process completed successfully
Killer Assumptions!
Re-think or abandon project/programme
7/1/2009 UNICEF - Evaluation Office and PGQA Section32
Result X5
Intermediate Result A, B, C
Will be done by UNICEF and Gov.
Intermediate Result D
Will be done by other donor and Gov.
AssumptionThe president will…+ sustained highest level…+ WorldBank grant …+ skilled staff everywhere... + all other things in place…+ etc etc...
Killer Assumptions!
Re-think or abandon project/programme