catastrophic incident planning by design jim greer
DESCRIPTION
Jim Greer, Vice President of Strategic Leadership and Design at Abrams Learning and Information Systems, Inc. (ALIS) presented at the 2013 World Disaster Management Conference. In this presentation, Jim discusses the use of Design Methodology for Catastrophic Incident Planning. To learn more about Design Thinking, the application of Design Methodology, and Planning, visit us at www.alisinc.com.TRANSCRIPT
Catastrophic Incident Planningby Design
James K. Greer(913) 775-0309
The Worldwide Conference on Disaster ManagementToronto, CA June 24, 2013
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
What Makes an Incident Catastrophic ?
Extraordinary levels of mass casualties, damage, or disruption
Severely affecting the population, infrastructure, environment, economy, national morale, and/or government functions.
Sustained national impacts over a prolonged period of time
Almost immediately exceeds resources normally available to State, local, tribal, and private-sector authorities
Significantly interrupts governmental operations and emergency services
To such an extent that national security could be threatened
The Book Says: Magnitude and Effects
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
Every catastrophic incident is unique Deepwater Horizon Gulf Oil Spill was not Exxon Valdez Hurricanes IKE/GUSTAV was not KATRINA/RITA
Responding to and preparing for simultaneous disasters (The New Norm)
Earthquake plus Tsunami plus nuclear reactor failure Oil Spill plus Hurricane
4 disaster types for planning No notice disasters (earthquake, terrorism, HAZMAT) Short notice – Anticipated (Typhoon, wildfire, floods) Short notice –Unanticipated (Terrorism, H1N1 Spring 09) Continuous (Port Security, organized criminality, disaster recovery)
Failure of Imagination (3 trailer tornado vs Joplin or Moore)
What Makes an Incident Catastrophic ?
Experience Says: Surprise and Simultaneity© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
1o Effects: Catastrophic Detonation Effects• Blast, radiation, fire, EMP• Immediate in effect; lasting in duration
What Makes an Incident Catastrophic:Cascading Effects
2o Effects: Indirect Effects• Destruction, disorganization, disruption• Downwind Fallout effects• Loss/disruption of services (CIKR)• Affect response efforts
3o Effects: Operational Effects• Multi-State/Regional impacts• Multi-functional (ESF)• Life sustaining• Nationwide prevent/protect• Affect recovery efforts
1o
2o
3o
2o
3o
4o Effects: Strategic Effects• Policy/Governmental • Economic• Environmental• Social/Cultural• Health/PTSD• Long-term recovery/remediation
For instructional purposes only © 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
Challenges of Catastrophic Incidents
Concurrent mission sets – Prevent, protect, respond, recover, and mitigate
Simultaneous operations at strategic & tactical levels Against diverse threats and hazards Combining Emergency Management and Public Safety
High tempo environment – Compressed plan, coordinate, execute, and adapt
Complexity of information sharing – Difficulty achieving public sector common operating picture Horizontal and vertical Public and private sector information sharing Establish a user defined operating picture (UDOP) Information systems saturation
Managing catastrophic incidents requiresConceptual planning to solve and manage complex problems
And detailed planning for execution
“The Scream” by Edvard Munch
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
A broad Conceptual Component: “How to “Think Strategically” about a set of problems”
• A conceptual methodology for structuring thinking and learning
• A strategic thinking construct for “Problem Management”
The Detailed Planning Component: “What to Think about a set of problems”
• Translates broad concepts into a complete and practical plan – “Problem Solving”
• Allows for the near precise “Tactical” application of resources & action
• National Incident Management System and Incident Command System
Planning Consists of Two Separate But Interrelated Components
Design is an Approach to the Conceptual Component that informs all mission areas
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
What is Design?
Definition: Design is an approach to critical and creative thinking that enables a community to understand, visualize and describe complex, ill-structured problems and develop approaches to solve them.
Terrorism, man-made and natural threats and hazards are generally complex, ill-structured problems.
Critical thinking enables examining an environment and problem in depth and from many points of view
Creative thinking involves thinking in new, innovative ways while capitalizing on imagination, insight and novel ideas
Design enables detailed and crisis action planning by enabling the team to understand, visualize and describe the environment (context), the problem and potential solutions
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
Environmental Space
Problem Space
Solution SpaceAssessment Space
Adaptation SpaceThink, Learn,
Understand, & Act in 5Spaces simultaneously
Transilient - Passing abruptly or leaping from one thing or condition to another – Non-Linear Thinking
The Design Methodology
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
CaptureThe
Difference
11
Understand theLogic of the Guidance
The Design Methodology in Action
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
Framing
A perspective from which we can understand and act on a complex, ill-structured problem.
Provides guideposts for analyzing, understanding and acting
FramingFacilitates:• Scoping• Hypothesizing• Modeling
FramingInvolves:• Selecting• Organizing• Interpreting• Sensing
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
Framing the EnvironmentUsing a Systems Approach
Infrastructure
HealthCare
PublicSafety
Government
Economic
ResponseCapabilities
Population
Culture Media
ExternalStakeholders
Geography& Weather
Major City/Region System Frame
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
DesiredEnd
State
FirstResponders
Support ofThe People
MilitaryForces Political
LeadershipLaw
Enforcement
TerroristCells
LimitedBudgets
NaturalHazards
BureaucraticInertia
Weather &Geography
Conflicts
Tensions
Frictions
Comprehensively Understanding the Problem
A “tug of war” between everything that helps us respond and recoverAnd everything that challenges those actions
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
Framing and Re-framing
Hurricane Katrina eclipsed the limits of tolerance for disasters
The ReframePost-KatrinaEmergencyManagementReform Act
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
Design and the Planning Process
Phase 1Understand
The Situation
Phase 2Goals andObjectives
Phase 3Plan
Development
Phase 4Plan
Preparation
Phase 5Plan
Refinement
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
Coordinated Planning vs Integrated Planning
Sta
te A
Sta
te B
Sta
te C
Coordinated plans arelike acquaintances…
Integrated plans arelike long term relationships.
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
Coordinated Planning…“Out of many – many”
• Stakeholders plan for and react to their immediate problem• Reveals interdependencies only in crisis• Solution sets are stove-piped and tactically focused• Resources are over committed or under committed
Integrated Planning…“Out of many – one”
• Sets conditions for solving simultaneous complex problems• Enables unity of effort and mutually reinforcing actions• Overcomes cascading tactical, regional and strategic effects• Strengthens synchronization and limited resource prioritization
Coordinated Planning vs Integrated Planning
Design enables integrated planning
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
Design and Preparedness
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
Value of Integrated PlansEnsures common and accepted understanding of:• The environment in which threats and hazards will be encountered• Complex problem sets that make up the New Norm• Solutions the Region’s States, Cities and Counties can and will adopt
Enables adaptive crisis action planning based on integrated plans
Fosters effective oversight, coordination and communication• Enhancing unity of effort and information sharing• Across the Region; horizontally and vertically
Enables effective preparedness and timely regional response• Identifies regional objectives/priorities; defines authorities/policies• Ensures field response/recovery organization in place and capable• Identifies, obtains, and allocates essential resources and capabilities• Considers (continuously and in-stride) future recovery requirements
Design enables Integrated Planning
© 2013 Abrams Learning & Information Systems, Inc.
Catastrophic Incident Planningby Design
James K. Greer(913) 775-0309
The Worldwide Conference on Disaster ManagementToronto, CA June 24, 2013