catastrophe deconstructed a critique of climate science and the theory of catastrophic manmade...
TRANSCRIPT
Catastrophe Deconstructed
A Critique of Climate Science and the theory of Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming
Key science is explained in simple terms as we “Follow The Evidence”
How to resolve problems with the science and move forward?
Is one of these taking bear-faced liberties with the truth?
3
• What's the Story?
• How do greenhouse gases work?
• How do models arrive at catastrophic temperature forecasts?
• What are the links between warming and other environmental changes?
The Case for Catastrophic Manmade Global Warming – Key Questions
4
http://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Scientific/MLO-emissions.htm
Meet the CO2 record from Mauna Loa
5
IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Set up in 1988 UN advisory body on climate science Over 130 countries are members 2007 assessment report involved 3500+ scientists
worldwide Summaries of reports approved by scientific reps
of all member countries
– Including USA, Saudi Arabia
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from BBC website
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8
9
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CO2 in 2100 predictable from Mauna Loa chart
“CO2 in air tracks our emissions exactly – rise has to be due to us”
“CO2 rise unprecedented in Vostok chart – has to be due to emissions”
“Recent temp. rise must be due to CO2 - too little solar change”
“CO2 levels are rising further, with no end in sight”
“Let's calculate the worst and get the message out!!!”
Records Seem to Speak Volumes
11
How Does Man Create CO2?
A Hydrocarbon
+ Oxygen (O2)
Traditional pollutants were fairly easy to eliminate Pollutants like sulfates (SOx) are reduced by reducing impurities
in the fuel and by scrubbing exhaust gases Pollutants like ozone, carbon monoxide, and nitrous oxide are
reduced by better combustion Pollutants like carbon and ash are reduced by filtration
But the only way to prevent carbon dioxide in emissions is not to burn fossil fuels - it is fundamental to combustion
Water (H2O) + Carbon Dioxide (CO2) +Heat
12Getting a Feel for CO2: GHG effect at different levels of concentration
<<<Without CO2 we would be 33 °C colder. Theory: most greenhouse effect happens with the first 50 ppm
(parts per million), then it levels out
Current CO2 level in the atmosphere is about 385 ppm – red dot
A column of water with the same weight as the atmosphere is over 10m high (over 3 storeys)
Compared with this, CO2 ~ 4mm, the thickness of a wedding ring
13
∆T = F(C2) – F(C1)Where F(c) = Ln(1+1.2c+0.005c2+0.0000014c3)
Likely CO2 Range by 2100Likely CO2 Range by 2100
IPCC's graph-generating formula:
∆T = F(C2) – F(C1)where F(c) = Ln(1+1.2c+0.005c2+0.0000014c3)
14
One Degree? What Are We Missing?
The Answer is – Feedback
High enough feedback leads to runaway tipping points Venus is said to have runaway CO2 warming Examples of positive feedback assumptions of models
Increase in atmospheric water content (relative humidity constant with rising temps = more H2O)
Increase in methane releases from northern tundra Increase high cirrus clouds Decrease in albedo from melting ice Release of CO2 from warmer oceans
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Feedback Multiplies or Reduces an Initial Disturbance
Negative Feedback
Positive Feedback
Disturbances are damped System remains near its starting
point, though it can oscillate
Disturbances are amplified System may end up far from its
starting point
Final Value is 1/(1-f) times Initial InputFinal Value is double the Initial Input when f=50%
16
Temperature Projections From CO2 IPCC A2 (no Abatement) Case
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
350 450 550 650 750
Atmospheric CO2, PPM
Te
mp
era
ture
In
cre
as
e,
Ce
lsiu
s
No Feedback +1.0 to 1.3C by 2100
+3.4C by 2100 (IPCC mean fcst)
+5.4C by 2100 (IPCC high fcst)
+10C by 2100
Feedback 60%
Feedback 87%
Feedback 75%
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Temperature Projections From CO2 IPC C A 2 (no A batem ent) C ase
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
10.0
350 450 550 650 750
A tm ospheric C O 2, PPM
Tem
per
atu
re In
crea
se, C
elsi
us
From Greenhouse Gas Theory
From Climate Positive Feedback Theory
Catastrophic Global Warming Theory Based on Two Chained Theories
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Do Rising Temperatures Lead to Other Negative Changes?
Changing rainfall patterns (drought in some areas, floods in others)
Melting ice and rising sea levels Increase in hurricanes, tornadoes, severe storms Rainforest loss, Species extinctions Migration of tropical diseases to new areas Or has alarmism been a natural but inappropriate
emotional response to unchecked data?
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Getting a Feel for CO2: Plants
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Getting a Feel for CO2: Annual Cycle
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Getting a Feel for CO2: “Residence Time”
22
Depth of ice at Vostok, Antarctica, extends to over 3 km depth
1 atmosphere pressure = 1000 millibars (mb - old) = 1000 hectopascals (hPa)
Getting a Feel for CO2:
Firn & Ice Core Formation
23
Six Key Questions
• Is the world warming?
• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?
• Will future man-made warming be substantial?
• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?
• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?
• What do we really need to look at?
24
-1.0
-0.8
-0.6
-0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1850 1870 1890 1910 1930 1950 1970 1990 2010
Glo
ba
l T
em
pe
ratu
re A
no
ma
ly,
De
gre
es
CHistoric Temperature Record shows
warming of about 0.7°C
Source: Hadley CRUT3, UAH
Orange line is a centered 60 month moving averageLighter blue = switch to satellite data
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Source: Hadley CRUT, UAH
-0.2
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009
Glo
bal T
em
pera
ture
An
om
aly
, D
eg
rees C
Where's The Acceleration?Temperatures have been flat for a decade
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Sea Surface Temperatures Flat
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Tucson had Most Warming Since 1900Also most of rural USA (according to USHCN)
28
USHCN Weather Station SurveyTucson, Arizona
Survey archived at www.WeatherStations.org
Official weather station in a parking lot!I wonder what this looked like in 1900?
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Tucson AZ Site circa 1900
30
Surveys archived at www.WeatherStations.org
Bad Siting Frequently Found
31
Measuring the Phoenix Urban Heat Island 5 to 10 Degrees F
Meyer, 2008
32
S
With Urban Growth, Temperatures Go UpAdjustments Should Go Down – Not Up!
33
More Improper Handling of Station Data?
34Six Key Questions
• Is the world warming?– Has been, but not beyond natural ranges; recent record probably
overstated due to UHI etc; no warming in last 10 years
• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?
• Will future man-made warming be substantial?
• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?
• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?
• What do we really need to look at?
35
Atmospheric EquationsWith a little help from climate skeptics,the IPCC equations can be made to balance, showingthe greenhouseeffect as real andessential to life.
But is it relevantto our emissions?
36
Source: IPCC AR4
Early Ice Core Studies seemed to have found the Smoking Gun...CO2 appeared to be a strong driver of global temperatures…
37
...More Careful Measurements Reverse Findings, Suggest Another Cause...
38...And Still More Careful Measurement Is Needed
39
Early IPCC Reports Found Current Temperatures to be Unexceptional...
Reconstructed temperature anomalySource: IPCC, 1990 AR1
40
...Pattern Affirmed by Looking At the World's Oldest Thermometer Record...
41… but Mann’s Hockey Stick Shows
Recent Warming as “Unprecedented”
42
“Novel” Statistics, Bad Proxies
43
Trickery Confirmed Steve McIntyre investigates Mann's graph
Bristlecone pine data given 390-fold weighting to produce hockey stick shape Michael Mann and others refuse to cooperate
McIntyre & McKitrick report to US government via Wegman Report
Mann's graph condemned by top statistician Wegman as worthless, but reporters fail to convey this, drawing on partisan North report instead.
Wegman Report also notes existence of tiny “Team” at the centre
• RealClimate blog starts in 2005, covertly aiming to discredit climate skeptics, particularly Steve McIntyre
Steve responds by starting blog Climate Audit in January 2005 Climategate eventually gives proof after proof of scientific trickery and bad behaviour now
long suspected by Steve and others. McIntyre referred to in emails as “McFraudit”
44
Trick #1: Overlay red instrumental data on proxies during calibration period, to make the “hockey stick blade” appear forcefully steeper
Trick #2: No proxies shown in the last half of the instrumental record, since none go up that high & all would eventually diverge
Tricks #3-4: Truncate Briffa's proxy data that declined too far below requirements – at both ends
“Hide the Decline”Mail Online, 13/12/2009
Climate Audit,20/3/2011
45
Mann Flips Bad Proxy Upside Down -Tiljander's Finnish Lake Sediments
Warmer Year More Organic Matter in Sediment Lower X-ray Density
Original Proxy Findings
Medieval Warm PeriodSediments Disturbed by Agriculture (i.e. theproxy is meaningless anyway, in this period)
Mann 2008 (and others) Used the Proxy Upside-Down to Show Hockey Stick Warming
46
YAD 061 From Russia With Love– most notorious tree in the world
47Proxy Studies without those Questionable Series take us Back to the Traditional View
48
IPCC Models Say Nature Would Have Cooled Without Man
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IPCC Models have a History of Incorrect Predictions
50
Current Lead Argument:Trust the Models. They say that warming is caused by Man
because we can’t think of Anything Else It Could Be!
51
Omitted: Land Use Changes Affect Temperatures
Deg C Per Decade fromLand Use Characteristics,1979-2003
Fall, S., D. Niyogi, A. Gluhovsky, R. A. Pielke Sr., E. Kalnay, and G. Rochon, 2009
52
Omitted: Recovery from the Little Ice Age
Carter, 2007
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Omitted: The Pacific Decadal Oscillation has an Enormous Effect on Temperatures
54
Omitted: Sun Has Been Unusually Active in Last 50 Years
Avg. Monthly Sunspots 1900-1949: 48Avg. Monthly Sunspots 1950-1999: 73
Mo
nth
ly S
un
spo
t N
um
ber
Trailing 10.8 Year Avg. Sunspot Number
55
Better examination shows the Sun is active now, as ever, in climate changes
56Six Key Questions
• Is the world warming?– Has been, but not beyond natural ranges; recent record probably
overstated due to UHI etc; no warming in last 10 years
• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?– Possibly “some,” certainly not “most”
• Will future man-made warming be substantial?
• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?
• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?
• What do we really need to look at?
57
Positive Feedback is Unusual for Long-Term Stable Natural Processes
How can Mann (very narrow temperature variation over 1000 years) and assumptions of very high positive feedback both be right?
58
Atmospheric Moisture Content Not Growing as Fast as Modeled
Models assume relative humidity stays constant as temperatures rise, but in the real world, R.H. has been falling.
59
Methane Growth Slowing, Not Accelerating
60Feedback Assumptions for IPCC
Forecasts are VERY High
200 300 400 500 600 700 800(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Atmospheric CO2, PPM
Tem
per
atu
re I
ncr
ease
, C
elsi
us
Feedback = 0
Feedback = 60%
Feedback = 75%
Feedback = 87%
Today
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200 300 400 500 600 700 800(6.0)
(4.0)
(2.0)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
Atmospheric CO2, PPM
Tem
per
atu
re I
ncr
ease
, C
elsi
us
High Feedbacks Greatly Over-Predict Past Warming
Feedback = 0
Feedback = 60%
Feedback = 75%
Feedback = 87%
~2100~1900
0.6CObservedWarming
{
Today
62Sulfates & Black C. too Localized to use as Global Correction
If they cover 40% of the land area (10% of the world’s surface), it takes 10C of local masking to lower world temps 1C
63
Is the Heat Hiding?Ocean Heat Content Hasn’t Risen
Chart Via Bob Tisdale
64
In 1988 Hansen showed a good fit between his climate models and history. His forecast was grossly exaggerated.
65Six Key Questions
• Is the world warming?– Has been, but not beyond natural ranges; recent record probably
overstated due to UHI etc; no warming in last 10 years
• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?– Possibly “some,” certainly not “most”
• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Not from CO2
• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?
• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?
• What do we really need to look at?
66
Marketing is Not Science
Global warming is being re-marketed as climate change / climate disruption / whatever name is the flavor of the month
Blame can thus be still allotted for all extreme weather events
But CO2 cannot change the climate by any mechanism we understand or has even been proposed EXCEPT via higher temperatures. CO2 cannot be causing climate change if it is not causing warming.
67Warmer Weather has almost always been Beneficial
from Liu et al, JGS,@ Watts Up With That,
24-03-2011
Green = more vegetation Red = less vegetation
68
Percent of US Severely to Extremely DrySource: National Climate Data Center
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
60 Month Moving Average
There Is No Upward Trend In Droughts...
69
Percent of US Severely to Extremely WetSource: National Climate Data Center
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
1900
1905
1910
1915
1920
1925
1930
1935
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
60 Month Moving Average
And No Significant Trend In Wet Weather
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No Upward Trend in Hurricane or Cyclonic Activity
71
Al Gore Said Global Warming Is Increasing Tornadoes
It looks, at first, like he might be right.
But in fact the increase of measured tornadoes is mainly due to better measurement (e.g. Doppler radar, storm chasers)
Total US Tornadoes By Year
72
But, in Fact, Large Tornadoes With Consistent Measurement are Flat to Down
In fact, high tornado spring of 2008 was the coldest spring in 15 years, well below last 30 years average
Total US Tornadoes By Year
73
What is Normal?
Via Lindzen, 2009
“The arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot. Reports all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the arctic zone. Expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.”
—US WEATHER BUREAU
74
What is Normal?
Via Lindzen, 2009
“The arctic ocean is warming up, icebergs are growing scarcer and in some places the seals are finding the water too hot. Reports all point to a radical change in climate conditions and hitherto unheard-of temperatures in the arctic zone. Expeditions report that scarcely any ice has been met with as far north as 81 degrees 29 minutes. Great masses of ice have been replaced by moraines of earth and stones, while at many points well known glaciers have entirely disappeared.”
—US WEATHER BUREAU, 1922
75
Navigable Arctic Ocean is Not New
76
Greenland Ice Sheet – No Problems
Box et al, 2009
Ice Core temperature data
77
North Pole Ice “All-Time Low” on Same Day as South Pole All-Time High
78
Glaciers have been Retreating Far Longer than we have Emitted CO2
Source: Oerlemans, et al, 2005
79
Sea Levels Have Risen at a Fairly Constant Rate since the Little Ice Age
Jevrejeva, S., J. C. Moore, A. Grinsted, and P. L. Woodworth (2008)
Fluctuating rate of rise of sea level
Actual Sea level
80Six Key Questions
• Is the world warming?– Has been, but not beyond natural ranges; recent record probably
overstated due to UHI etc; no warming in last 10 years
• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?– Possibly “some,” certainly not “most”
• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Not from CO2
• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?– No. Cooling is the difficult change, not warming
• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?
• What do we really need to look at?
81
Problems with the Precautionary Principle
“Ivory tower” idea disconnected from reality Not quantified: likelihood of catastrophe, size of
problem, level of success, cost of mitigation Real costs threaten to disrupt economies, hit the
poorest, and benefit none but profiteers Strangely neglected:
– History shows that it is cold that kills
– China has no intention of CO2 abatement
– Cap-n-Trade is an invitation to corruption
82
Global Warming Alarmism is Undermining the Environmental Movement
Huge flaws revealed in the ethical conduct of environmental groups
MMGW and environmentally stupid behavior Subsidizing maize ethanol, which does not reduce CO2 but
has terrible effects on land use and raises the specter of starvation to the poorest people
MMGW alarmism could be seen as sign of mental illness / incompetence in other settings
We need to explore other alternatives to nuclear power – traditional green options are not enough
83
What Use is the IPCC?
84Six Key Questions
• Is the world warming?– Has been, but not beyond natural ranges; recent record probably
overstated due to UHI etc; no warming in last 10 years
• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?– Possibly “some,” certainly not “most”
• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Not from CO2
• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?– No. Cooling is the difficult change, not warming
• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?– Precautionary Principle invalid. Cap-n-Trade: costs high; benefits
zero. More important priorities. IPCC a self-serving parasite.
• What do we really need to look at?
85
Whither Climate Science?
86
New Vision can Come at the Strangest Moments
87
A Plea for Better Basic Scientific Literacy & Integrity
Scientific objectivity & integrity of soul Media must safeguard scientific method and
defend the right to debate De-fund alarmist & conclusion-driven research Science with public consequences must have all
data and methods available & checkable
Schools must correct “CO2 = pollutant” lies
The future will need trustworthy science
88
The future will need trustworthy science In particular, we will need heavy-duty
replacements for coal, gas and oil China has a R&D program for thorium reactors Russia is researching biological transmutation
treatments for radioactive waste Low Energy Nuclear Reactors (LENR) promise a
lot – if R&D funding can be found There are many other options already being
investigated, that need a lot more awareness, R&D backing, and enlightened regulating
A Plea for Real Energy Research
89Six Key Questions
• Is the world warming?– Has been, but not beyond natural ranges; recent record probably
overstated due to UHI etc; no warming in last 10 years
• Is that warming due to man’s CO2 emissions?– Possibly “some,” certainly not “most”
• Will future man-made warming be substantial?– Not from CO2
• Will we see catastrophic effects from warming?– No. Cooling is the difficult change, not warming
• Do warmist proposals for action make sense?– Precautionary Principle invalid. Cap-n-Trade: costs high; benefits
zero. More important priorities. IPCC a self-serving parasite.• What do we really need to look at?
– Science education; transparency in climate science; disincentives to alarmism; proper R & D of LENR & thorium reactors, and other “fringe” energy production with serious potential
90
Thank you
Warren Meyer
http://www.Climate-Skeptic.com
Anne Stallybrass aka Lucy Skywalkerhttp://www.greenworldtrust.org.uk/Science/Curious.htm