caspian energy systems: multiregional model and … 2013...paris, 19-21 june 2013 2013 international...

2013 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY WORKSHOP Paris, 19-21 June 2013

Rocco De Miglio - E4SMA S.r.l.

Yerbol Akhmetbekov - NURIS

Anar Ibrayeva - NURIS

Aiymgul Kerimray - NURIS

Assylbek Kudaibergenov - NURIS

2013 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY WORKSHOP

D1. Energy and Climate Modeling 1

Caspian Energy Systems:

Multiregional Model and Analyses of the

Interregional Trades


Outline

• Introduction

• Country energy systems

• Energy export overview

• The TIMES-CAC-4R model

• Scenarios

• Conclusions

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Overview of the Area

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Population in 2009 (million)

Azerbaijan: 8.9

Kazakhstan: 16.5

Turkmenistan: 4.8

Uzbekistan: 27.5

GDPP (PPP) – 2009 USD

Azerbaijan: 10062

Kazakhstan: 13100

Turkmenistan: 9420

Uzbekistan: 3287

Growth indexes, medium case: 2009 2020 2025 2030

Population 1 1.18 1.24 1.31

GDPP 1 1.61 1.96 2.37

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Azerbaijan


Objective of the research

Building upon the analysis of the 4 energy systems this research

aims:

• to build a Central-Asia-Caspian technical economic multi-

regional model (TIMES-CAC-4R),

• to explore possible developments of interregional energy trades,

and

• to identify possible synergies and evaluate their impacts on the

national energy systems.

This presentation shows preliminary results and findings

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Country-specific indicators: proven fossil fuels reserves (1/4)

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Last available data -

OGJ

Significant increase of

natural gas reserves

in Turkmenistan

(recent estimations)

Kazakhstan coal

proven reserves:

31000 Mt


Country-specific indicators: fossil fuels export (2/4)

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2009 Data

Kazakhstan coal

export: 28.6 Mt


Country-specific indicators: existing generating capacity (3/4)

2009 Data

Synergies with Kyrgiz

and Tajik hydropower

systems (regional

variations due to the

seasonality of hydro)

are not included in the

model so far.

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Country-specific indicators: final energy consumptions (4/4)

2009 Data

A deeper bottom-up

analysis is required to

improve the

knowledge of the

systems.

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2013 INTERNATIONAL ENERGY WORKSHOP Paris, 19-21 June 2013 9/30

Exit points

Crude Oil

CPC - Russia - Market

(Kazakhstan)

Crude Oil

BTC - Turkey - Market

(Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan)

Crude Oil

Phase3 - China

(Kazakhstan)

Main oil export routes

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Azerbaijan

Crude Oil export (2009) [Mt]:

Kazakhstan (69.0) - Uzbekistan (0.0) - Turkmenistan (2.0) - Azerbaijan (44.3)


Exit points

Natural Gas

Pipeline to - Russia

(Kazakhstan)

Natural Gas

BTE - Europe

(Azerbijan, Kazakhstan

Turkmenistan)

Natural Gas

Pipeline to - China

(Turkmenistan,

Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan)

Main gas export routes

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Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Azerbaijan

Natural Gas export (2009) [Bcm]:

Kazakhstan (10.0) - Uzbekistan (14.8) - Turkmenistan (19.0) - Azerbaijan (5.8)


Three main pillars have guided the modeling activity:

1) the creation of a comprehensive and regional-consistent

structure, able to represent common targets, constraints (e.g.

environmental, or technical) over the whole Area.

2) the construction of a multiregional structure, able to

endogenously trade energy commodities.

3) the definition of “key” integer variables representing some

relevant discrete investments.

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TIMES-CAC-4R - Main Concept


TIMES-based multiregional model

Number of objective functions: 1

Number of Regions: 4

Mathematical formulation: Mixed Integer Linear Programming

Integer variables: cross-country new infrastructures

Time horizon: 2009 – 2030 (flexible, extensible to 2050)

Time periods: 7 (flexible)

Time slices: up to 12 (commodity-dependent)

Summer – night/day/peak;

Fall - night/day/peak;

Winter - night/day/peak;

Spring - night/day/peak

TIMES-CAC-4R - Modeling Approach

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Country Reference Energy System

Supply sector: Energy production (primary and secondary

transformations) and distribution.

Demand sectors: Residential, Service (Commercial and Public

Administration), Industry, Agriculture, Transport.

Residential

•Space heating •......

•Water heating •......

•Space cooling •......

•Lighting •......

•Refrigeration •......

Industrial

•Iron and steel •Steam production

•Heat production

•Machine drive

•....

•Non ferrous metal •Steam production

•Heat production

•Machine drive

•....

•........

Transport

•Passenger •Cars

•Buses

•Rail

•.....

•Freight •Light trucks

•Heavy Trucks

•Rail


TIMES-CAC-4R – Electricity/Heat chains

4 electric-interconnected systems

(Regions)

Technology rich representation of the

generation / transmission /distribution

systems

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Oil Gas Coal Hydro Elc Heat Elc Heat

toRSD services

toCOM services

toAGR services

toTRA services

toIND services

MULTIREGIONAL

STRUCTURE

OIL - PP

GAS - PP

COAL - PP

HYDRO - PP

GAS - CHP

COAL - CHP

OIL - DHP

GAS - DHP

COAL - DHP

ELE - Losses

HEAT - Losses

Distr. to RSD

Distr. to COM

Distr. to AGR

Distr. to TRA

Distr. to IND

Trade out R1

Trade out R2

Trade out R3

Export to ROW

Trade in R1

Trade in R2

Trade in R3

Import from ROW

Trade with R1

Trade with ROW

Trade with R2

Trade with R3


Crude Oil consumption in the Reference case (PJ)

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Natural gas consumption in the Reference case (PJ)

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TFC in the Reference case (by sector) (PJ)

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TIMES-CAC-4R – Cross-Country infrastructures

(Integer variables)

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To To To To

AZJ KZK UZB TKM

From AZJ

From KZK

From UZB 1

From TKM 1 1

Natural gas

To To To To

AZJ KZK UZB TKM

From AZJ

From KZK 1 1 1

From UZB

From TKM

Crude Oil

- ”Exit points” for crude oil: Kazakhstan,

Azerbaijan.

- 3 discrete options per each cross-country

connection (range 5 – 60 Mtoe/y)

- ”Exit points” for natural gas: Kazakhstan,

Azerbaijan.

- 3 discrete options per each cross-country

connection (range 5 – 80 Bcm/y)


Scenario: East-oriented export

East-oriented

Natural Gas

Additional 42 Bcm

exported by 2030

of which:

- 70% to China

(Turkmenistan-China

agreement)

Crude Oil

Additional 50 Mt exported

by 2030

of which:

- 40% to China

(Kazakhstan-China

agreement) Natural Gas: 90 Bcm Chinese TPES in 2009 (IEA)

Crude Oil: 390 Mtoe Chinese TPES in 2009 (IEA)

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Azerbaijan


Scenario: East-oriented export - Findings

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To Commodity Demand Exporter (Fraction) Route Capacity Utilization factor Comments

PJ PJ/y %

SouthWest NG 455.0 Turkmenistan (100%) through Azerbaijan 600.0 (200*3) 76% No withdrawal in the transit Country

China NG 1000.0 Turkmenistan (100%) through Kazakhstan 1700.0 (850*2) 59% No withdrawal in the transit Country

China OIL 795.5 Kazakhstan (100%) Direct No cross-Country infrastructure

NorthWest OIL 1300.0 Kazakhstan (100%) Direct No cross-Country infrastructure

Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Azerbaijan


Scenario: NorthWest-oriented export

NorthWest-oriented

Natural Gas

Additional 42 Bcm

exported by 2030

of which:

- 100% to

Russia/Ukraine/EU

Crude Oil


by 2030

of which:

- 85% to Russia-market

(mainly CPC expansion)

Natural Gas: 525 Bcm European-EU27 TPES in 2009 (IEA)

Crude Oil: 630 Mtoe European-EU27 TPES in 2009 (IEA)

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Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Azerbaijan


Scenario: NorthWest-oriented export - Findings

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Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Azerbaijan


PJ PJ/y %

NorthWest NG 1470.0 Kazakhstan (100%) Direct No cross-Country infrastructure

Azerbaijan OIL 467.9 Kazakhstan (100%) 500.0 (500*1) 94% Cross-Country infrastructure - trade




Scenario: SouthWest-oriented export

SouthWest-oriented

Natural Gas

Additional 42 Bcm

exported by 2030

of which:

- 35% to Turkey-EU

(through BTE expansion)

Crude Oil


by 2030

of which:

- 50% to Turkey-market

(through BTC expansion)

Natural Gas: 525 Bcm European-EU27 TPES in 2009 (IEA)

Crude Oil: 630 Mtoe European-EU27 TPES in 2009 (IEA)

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Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Azerbaijan


Scenario: SouthWest-oriented export - Findings

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Kazakhstan

Uzbekistan

Turkmenistan

Azerbaijan


PJ PJ/y %

SouthWest NG 455.0 Turkmenistan (100%) through Azerbaijan 600.0 (200*3) 76% No withdrawal in the transit Country

China NG 1000.0 Turkmenistan (100%) through Kazakhstan 1700.0 (850*2) 59% No withdrawal in the transit Country



SouthWest OIL 1000.0 Kazakhstan (100%) through Azerbaijan 1500.0 (500*3) 100% Withdrawal by the transit Country (500 PJ)


Preliminary observations

• Kazakhstan is projected to be the largest consumer of the Area

even in the medium term (reference case).

• Crude oil is the "key" resource of the Area and Kazakhstan is

the "key" player for both the export to ROW as well as for the

Cross-Country trades;

• Natural gas Cross-Country exchanges are expected to become

more significant in case of environmental constraints, due to the

possible switch "coal-natural gas" of the largest consumer of

the Area (Kazakhstan).


Contacts

Corresponding Author: Rocco De Miglio

Email: [email protected], E4SMA S.r.l.

Yerbol Akhmetbekov, Email: [email protected], NURIS

Anar Ibrayeva, Email: [email protected], NURIS

Aiymgul Kerimray, Email: [email protected], NURIS

Assylbek Kudaibergenov, Email: [email protected], NURIS

Thank you for your attention!

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caspian energy systems: multiregional model and … 2013...paris, 19-21 june 2013 2013 international...

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