cash wheat markets -...

TW/NW/Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

St. Paul Savage 350/350/350 350 375 475 500

Dub South 310/300/290 300 325 440 540

St. Louis 12' 240/240/250 260 325 450 525

Illinois 310/310/290 280 325 450 540

OH/Jeff/Cinn 190/190/200 215 300 450 525

Gulf/PNW $0.500 / bushel

BN Shuttles 100/0/0 -75 -163 -175 500

UP Shuttles 0//-100 -100 -100 -100 225

Jun FH/LH Jul FH/LH Aug FH/LH Sep Oct

CIF Nola 100n/82n 5 55n/51n 109u/100u 55u 62z

PNW 146n/146n unc 143n/143n 200u/200u 110z

Cols CSX 65 Chicago

Ft. Wayne N/S 75 Pekin ethanol

Evansvl 15s Decatur, IL

Toledo Champaign CN 25

UP Grp 3 Clinton, IA

Dexter, MO Columbus, NE ethanol

Fayne, OH Muscatine Truck

Ottawa Hereford COBO B/E


CIF Nola 75n/70n -3 68n/65n 60q/60q 100x 82x

Paranagua -56n/-56n - -54n/-54n 25u/25u

Jun FH/LH Jun FH/LH Jun FH/LH

Columbus 120n/120n CN25 115q/115q x Mankato 85q/65q 9

Toledo 10n/10n unc Chicago 10n/10n unc Cncl Bluf 5n/5n unc

Fostoria 90q/90q unc Decatur 125n/115n x Lincoln 75q/75q unc

Windsor / x Naples 21n/18n -2.0 KC 75q/75q unc

PNW 113n/110n -7 Ottawa 20n/20n x Wichita 100q/100q unc


CIF Nola 65n/65n unc / /

Houston 65n/65z x 65z/60z 60z/60z 50z 50z

Corpus Christi 45n/45z x 45z/45z 45z/45z 45z 45z


CIF SRW 53n/53n 3 55n/55n 50u/50u 54u 60z

TX Gulf HRW 143n/143n unc / /

SRW HRW

St. Louis KC Ords

Toledo (Mill) KC 12s

KC 13s

PNW KC 14s

Transportation

Cash Corn Markets

48n/48n x

57n/57n x

Jun FH/LH Jun FH/LH

72n/72n unc

53n/53n 3

59n/59n 1

53n/53n 1

53n/53n x

64n/64n -5

42n/42n unc

45n/30n x

40n/40n unc

73n/73n unc

60n/60n -2

130n/130n 1

Jun FH/LH

22n/22n x

-10n/-10n unc

Jun FH/LH 125n/140n x

145n/145n x

Jun FH/LH

131n/146n x

75n/90n x

Cash Wheat Markets

121n/135n x

/ x

62n/62n 2

Cash Milo Markets

Cash Bean Markets

Corn Corn futures were steady in the July but much lower in the September, December and beyond. The result of this was the N/U inverting further. Earlier this week we saw the spread trade at a 62 cent inverse and today it managed to get to 88¾ cents. December corn bumped against the 50 day moving average on the close Wednesday at $5.41½. It seems the drier midday forecast weighed on new crop corn as farmers are getting back into the fields today in parts of ECB. Hopes are we will the progress spread west into IL, IA, and MN later this week. Trade talk is we should be 94-95% planted by Sunday night. The forecast is dry for much of the corn belt over the next 5 days. The 6-10 day and 8-14 day forecast are offering a dry/warm pattern for the WCB, a normal temp/precip for parts of the central belt and above normal precip eastern half of the ECB. Informa updated their Brazilian corn crop and raised it 2.2 MMT to 78.5 MMT vs. the current USDA at 76 MMT. FH June CIF was bid up 5 cents at 100/104. LH June was 82/87. The job of the nearby futures market is create the cash movement needed to satisfy the demand. So the long will continue to buy the July until they have their summer needs covered. The inverse could be painful for the short futures. Continue to maintain a short basis position with the long in the July. New crop spreads were quiet at 10½ cents carry to the March.

Mark Talaski

_______________________________ Beans

Another day where the feature is spreading. SN and SMN supported on supply issues/China pricing while new crop was weaker on acreage increases and a small window to get more acres planted. Midday weather forecasts had

Export Sales Estimates

Expected

Crop (mbu)

Needed (mbu)

Corn 24-36 (600-900) 5.0 Soybeans 14-24 (350-600) 0.4 Wheat-All 15-22 (400-600) 28.1 HRW 24.6 SRW -2.3 Sorghum 1.5 Soybean Meal

50-200 -4.7

Soybean Oil 25-45 8.8

June 5, 2013

Close Change Full Carry % of Full Carry ROS/mo

Jul3-Sep3 90.50 12.75 -12.52 -722.6% None

Sep3-Dec3 29.00 1.00 -18.09 -160.3% None

Jul3-Dec3 119.50 11.75 -30.89 -386.9% None

Dec3-May4 (17.75) -0.25 -29.82 59.5% 2.5


Jul3-Aug3 77.00 0.75 -7.93 -971.6% None

Jul3-Nov3 230.25 18.00 -31.45 -732.2% None

Nov3-Jan4 (5.00) -0.25 -15.27 32.7% 0.0


Jul3-Sep3 (7.25) 1.25 -13.18 55.0% 2.1

Jul3-Dec3 (21.00) 1.25 -32.21 65.2% 2.8

Sep3-Dec3 (13.50) 0.25 -19.20 70.3% 3.1


Jul3-Sep3 (7.75) 1.25 -21.60 35.9% 2.3

Sep3-Dec3 (16.50) 3.25 -31.29 52.7% 4.0

Dec3-Mar4 (11.50) 1.50 -22.19 51.8% 2.4

KCBOT Wheat

Daily Spreads

Corn

Beans

Wheat

less precip in the next 48 hours for key areas of the Midwest and may allow for more seeding than thought yesterday. But there still remains another rain front coming through over the weekend, so no one is expecting all the beans to be planted in the next 3 days. Processor basis was steady, but starting to see a few basis pushes again. Gulf basis continues to slip, but July bids remain 5c over delivery in Chicago. Argentine gov’t continues to roil cash markets with uncertainty, this time revoking two rail freight companies operating structures with intents on re-nationalizing the businesses. Upcoming quarterly stocks report on the 28th is the next big potential bump in the road for markets as they review 5/6 last June reports showed less stocks that trade estimates. Midday Informa crop update had Argentine soybean production 50.0 mmt, down 3.0 mmt from last month with Brazil production 82.0 mmt, unchanged.

Trent Sauder

_______________________________ Wheat

Wheat futures were lower throughout the session on improved weather forecasts & profit taking. Weather in France & Germany (EU’s largest wheat producers) is expected to be warm & dry this week, which should improve harvest prospects after the cool & wet weather they experienced over the past month. This caused Nov milling wheat futures on the Paris exchange to close to down 1.75 at 205.75 euros/ton. Informa released a report today pegging 2013 winter wheat production at 1,494 million bushels, up 8 mbu from the USDA’s May 1 forecast. It’s worth mentioning that this number is 151 mbu below last year, and the reduction is likely a result of the drought’s impact on the HRW crop. They dropped their HRW estimate 20 from last month to 778 mbu. The SRW estimate came in at 505 mbu, down only 3 from last month. July forward spreads strengthened in corn, beans, and wheat today. WN/WU narrowed a penny to 7¾ cents carry. The VSR observation period for that spread ends on June 21st, & so far the average calculation is 61% of full carry. Based on Illinois’ math there doesn’t appear to be enough time before expiration for the spread to average 80% of full carry. Therefore, it appears the storage rate will remain a nickel a month for the WN/WU. However, regarding the WU/WZ, the potential still exists for an 8 cent/month storage calculation. The WU/WZ narrowed a penny today to 13 cents, so if the VSR kicks in at 8 cents/month, that spread could go to 24 cents plus interest. We’re leaning towards concentrating short hedges in the Sep for Chicago wheat.

Phil Reginelli

Advance Trading PO Box 1027, Bloomington, IL 61702 (800)747-9021 or (309)663-9021 Hours (CST): Sunday 5:00pm-9:00pm, Monday-Thursday 6:00am-9:00pm, and Friday 6:00am-5:00pm

Copyright © 2013 Advance Trading, Inc. Reproduction in any form without the expressed written consent of Advance Trading, Inc. is strictly forbidden. This data is provided for information purposes only and is not intended to be used for specific trading strategies without consulting Advance Trading, Inc. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. Past results are no

indication of future performance. All information is based upon data that is believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed.

United States Weather Outlook Source: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov

cash wheat markets -...

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