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Attachment F

Development Options AssessmentThe New Museum in Western Sydney

SENSITIVE: CABINET

l'A X 0 N CROUP

Development Options Assessment — New Museum in Western Sydney

Results Overview: Comparison of Planning Scenarios

A Development Options Assessment ("DOA") has been conducted to assess potential development options as part of the New Museum in Western Sydney project. The assessment considers the potential value to the State of allowing third-party development on sections of the Parramatta site, with the State achieving value by divesting these areas to a developer.

Overall Assumptions for AnalysisAnalysis has modelled both commercial and residential towers, with the volume of product defined in the architectural options produced by FKM. A mixed-use development may also be considered, with a value falling between the ranges shown for purely residential or commercial towers.Results are modelled across a range of developer equity return rates, with a range of potential values shown for each scenario. This reflects the range of risk that developers may attribute to a purchase, and hence the value they would be willing to pay for the development opportunity.Commercial options have been modelled inclusive of a rental incentive, which real estate market advice suggests will be necessary to secure tenants on a long-term arrangement in the Parramatta area.

Planning ParametersTwo sets of planning parameters have been applied.The First DOA was conducted based on current planning restrictions for the site, which limit the height and floor space ratio (FSR) on the site.Potential residential (green building) and commercial (blue building) development scenarios, involving development of the North West portion of the site, are shown below.

Following the outcomes of that assessment the Project Team was directed to model greater development on the site. As directed and endorsed by the Project Steering Committee, the preferred location

of additional development on the site is to be limited to the north west corner of the site only.The DOA extension has subsequently been completed, considering planning parameters allowing greater scope for development. Two tower scenarios have been modelled, based on commercial and residential towers with an FSR of 12:1 and 15:1.

New Museum in Western Sydney Development Options Assessment: Results Overview

Table 1: Results

Residenti Commercial Risk Level

Current Planning

Revised Planning: FSR

Revised Planning: FSR

Low to

Mediu

Mediu

PlION GROUP

The approach to model a tower with an FSR of 12:1 is consistent with modelling undertaken by the City of Parramatta Council for the site, and the height of the adjacent Meriton towers, which are considered an appropriate benchmark.The Town Planning consultant has also advised that the site is identified as an opportunity site in the Parramatta CBD Planning Proposal arid therefore is eligible for an FSR of 15:1 as it has an area of 1,800m2, is 40m wide at the building line and is the product of a design competition that achieves high performing building bonuses. The CBD Planning Proposal also provides that there is to be no maximum FSR control for commercial office developments. It is noted that these draft planning controls have not been endorsed by the Department of Planning, however the draft controls are consistent with Council's approach to the site.The development scenarios for an FSR of 15:1 are shown below (residential on left).

FindingsFinancial results are shown below for both residential and commercial development. Options have also been assessed qualitatively, with all options shown, achieving Low - Medium or Medium qualitative risk ratings, meaning they are qualitatively suitable.

It can be seen that a residential development yields the greatest development value, consistent with the market analysis originally conducted by CBRE.Commercial development is not viable, due to the requirement to offer a lease incentive to attract long-term tenants. Were a Government tenant able to commit to a long-term lease, at a rate which did not require a lease incentive, there may be value to a developer in providing this space. However, this would not reflect an overall value-for-money decision for Government.


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Achieving a return at the higher end of the range shown will be dependent on a developer becoming comfortable with a low level of risk associated with the project, allowing the developer to accept a return on equity at the lower end of typical development returns. The overall final divestment value will also be contingent on the assumptions from the prior real estate market analysis, cost planning and other inputs remaining valid at the time a transaction is completed.

Value Sharing Voluntary Planning AgreementBased on current practices, there may be a requirement for any development option to undertake in a Value Sharing Voluntary Planning Agreement ("VPA") with local council. It is understood that the VPA will be entered into between the State and the local council, affecting the State's overall net return from divestment of the property. A VPA agreement is only applicable to development options that exceed current LEP controls.The applicable square meter rates for determination of VPA payments in Parramatta are as follows;

· GFA above 6:1 FSR to 10:1 FSR; then· GFA above 12:1 FSR to 15:1 FSR; and· An assumed rate of $250 per m2 GFA above 10:1 FSR to 12:1 FSR has been utilised.

Error! Reference source not found. shows the potential VPA payments applicable to each development option and the resulting impact on net returns to the State from divestment.

Table 2: Summary of Results with VPA Liability

Option VPA Amount Potential Value Potential Net Value

Residential: FSR 12:1

Commercial: FSR 12:1

Residential: FSR 15:1

Commercial: FSR 15:1

For the purposes of this assessment it is assumed that any VPA outcomes would be reinvested into the New Museum in Western Sydney Project to assist in the realisation of public amenity or benefit from the project.


Arts & Culture Division, NSW

New Museum in Western Sydney

Development Options Assessment

PAXON GROUP

Corporate Finance I 'ci • \ lelbourne • SvcInev I October 2017 — Version 4.0Management ConsultingProject Finance and Infrastructure

PA XON G110 UP

Table of Contents1 Executive Summary

1.1 Introduction and Process1.2 Options Assessed1.3 Summary Findings

2 Introduction2.1 Overall Assessment Process

4445

77

3 Assessment Methodology 83.1 Qualitative Assessment Methodology 83.2 Quantitative Assessment Methodology 13

4 Potential Scope Inclusions 144.1 Assessment of Potential Inclusions 144.2 Scope Items Included in Options 154.3 Mixed-Use Options 154.4 Development Area 164.5 Separation of Museum and Development 16

5 Option Definition 175.1 Planning Compliance 185.2 Architectural Assessment 19

6 Modelling Assumptions 226.1 Timing 226.2 Developer and Financial Assumptions 226.3 Construction and Development Assumptions 236.4 Revenue Assumptions 23

Assessment of Development Options 25

7 Option 1 267.1 Description of Scope Item 267.2 Qualitative Assessment 267.3 Financial Assessment 287.4 Summary of Results 28



10 Option 4 3510.1 Description of Scope Item 3510.2 Qualitative Assessment 35

New Museum in Western Sydney I Development Options Assessment Page 2

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10.3 Financial Assessment10.4 Summary of Results

3737





15 Option 9 5215.1Description of Scope Item 5215.2 Qualitative Assessment 5215.3Financial Assessment 5415.4 Summary of Results 54

16 Option 10 5516.1Description of Scope Item 5516.2 Qualitative Assessment 5516.3 Financial Assessment 5516.4 Summary of Results 56

17 Conclusions & Further Analysis 57Appendix A - Commercial Options Study 58Appendix B - Cost Plan 59Appendix C - Real Estate Analysis 60Appendix D - Site Options Analysis 61


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Executive Summary

1.1 Introduction and ProcessThis document assesses a number of potential development options for their suitability for inclusion on the New Museum in Western Sydney site. The options would be in addition to the New Museum development, and are being assessed to determine whether they could contribute positively to the operating position of the museum or provide a capital contribution to the State.To determine overall suitability for inclusions in scope, a two-part assessment process is conducted, comprising the following steps:1. Qualitative Assessment: Determines overall risk level for

each option against defined qualitative criteria. Options attracting a High risk rating are not considered suitable for inclusion in scope;

2. Quantitative/Financial Assessment: Determines, based on an assessment of the market and financial modelling, the likely Net Present Value ("NPV") impact of each option, and hence its financial viability.

Options attracting a reasonable qualitative risk rating, and that demonstrate an overall positive NPV to the State, are then considered appropriate for further consideration within the development scope for the New Museum site.

1.2 Options AssessedNine options are considered within the development options assessment. The options have been developed based upon the assumptions provided by CBRE and the findings of a workshop involving project architects, planners and cost planners.Table 1: Descri . tion of 0 • tions Assessed

Option

Portion of Site Developed

Other Considerations

Nature of

Development

Option 1

South East portion

Heritage building (Willowgrove) retainedCommercial

Option 2

South East portion

Heritage building (Willowgrove) retainedResidential

Option 3North West Portion

CommercialOption 4North West portion

ResidentialOption 5

South East portion

Heritage building not retainedCommercial

Option 6

South East portion

Heritage building not retainedResidential

Option 7

South East and North West portions

1 each Commercial and Residential towersOption 8

South East and North West portions

2 Residential towers


Potential Value Overall AssessmentQualitative

Option Low to

Option 2 Low to Medium





Option 7 Medium to High




Not

Via

Not

Via

Not

Via

Not

Not

Via

Viable to

GROUP

Option Portion of Site Other Considerations Nature ofDeveloped Development

Option 9 South East Portion Heritage building not 1 Tower, Commercialretained and Residential mix

Option 10 South East Portion No Lease Incentive Commercialassumed for commercial

tenancy

Detail for the financial assessment of options draws on the assumptions provided in CBRE's market analysis and FKM's options planning,, along with cost plans developed by RLB.

1.3 Summary Findings

The overall findings of the qualitative and quantitative analysis are summarised in the table below. The potential value shown for each option is a likely land value payable by a developer in order to access the development opportunity, and this value can be considered as an offset to the capital cost of the New Museum.

Table 2: Summary of FindingsIn summary, commercial development does not appear to be viable, due to the low lease rates and the requirement to offer a lease incentive to attract tenants. Were a Government tenant able to commit to a long-term lease, at a rate which did not require a lease incentive, there may be value to a developer in providing this space. However, this would not reflect an overall value-for-money decision for Government.Options involving two towers of development are not considered viable due to the high qualitative risk level, without the acquisition of the GE site.

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As a result, single-tower residential options are seen to be the most viable potential development options, delivering betweed111111111111111 as land divestment value. Further detailed modelling of the implications on New Museum, layout and design, and hence capital cost, will be required to select the option which achieves the best return.Achieving a return at the higher end of the range shown will be dependent on a developer becoming comfortable with a low level of risk associated with the project, allowing the developer to accept a return on equity at the lower end of typical development returns. The overall final divestment value will also be contingent on the assumptions from the prior real estate market analysis, cost planning and other inputs remaining valid at the time a transaction is completed.

New Museum In Western Sydney I Development Options Assessment Page 6

HOW N GROUP

2 Introduction

This Development Options Assessment ("DOA") considers the suitability of a number of development options for their potential inclusion on the site of the New Museum in Western Sydney ("New Museum"). These options are in addition to the development of the New Museum on the site, and are assessed to determine whether they may be suitable inclusions and could contribute positively to the operating position of the museum or provide a capital contribution to the State.While options may generate a commercial return on investment, it is important that they are also aligned with the overall direction of the project. This assessment determines the qualitative suitability, and associated risk, of options under a number of qualitative criteria. It then assesses the ability of options to provide a commercial return, should they be developed on the broader New Museum site.

2.1 Overall Assessment ProcessTo determine overall suitability for inclusions in scope, a two-part assessment process is conducted, comprising the following steps:

1. Qualitative Assessment: Determines overall risk level for each option against defined qualitative criteria. Options attracting a High risk rating are not considered suitable for inclusion in scope;

2. Quantitative/Financial Assessment: Determines, based on an assessment of the market and financial modelling, the likely Net Present Value ("NPV") impact of each option, and hence its financial viability.

Options attracting a reasonable qualitative risk rating, and that can be shown to demonstrate an overall positive NPV to the State, are then considered appropriate for further consideration within the development scope for the New Museum site.A detailed description of the methodology employed in conducting the qualitative and quantitative assessments is provided in Section 3.


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3 Assessment Methodology

The assessment of potential development options involves a two-staged approach, assessing both the qualitative suitability of the option, and its financial viability.

3.1 Qualitative Assessment MethodologyTo undertake the qualitative assessment, each option is evaluated against five criteria. These criteria have been developed to align to the overall qualitative objectives of the project, and are to be endorsed by the Project Control Group ("PCG") and Project Steering Committee ("PSC"). The criteria assessed are the following:

· Alignment with Strategy;· Compliance with Policy;· Sustainability;· Master Plan and Physical Parameters; and· Alignment with Broader Parramatta Strategy.

The approach taken is to consider the alignment of each development option with these qualitative requirements, and to then determine the likely risk of pursuing a specific development option negatively impacting upon achievement of these requirements.Each option is assigned a risk rating of High, Medium or Low against each criteria, with these ratings used to derive an overall risk rating for the option. The overall risk rating determines their qualitative suitability for inclusion on the New Museum site. Options attracting High overall risk ratings would not be considered qualitatively suitable for inclusion, irrespective of the potential commercial outcome.

Table 3 sets out the five criteria against which potential development options for inclusion on the New Museum site are assessed to determine their qualitative suitability. The table also identifies the documents and policies which are referenced in this evaluation, as well as key themes and individual elements of these documents which are specifically considered.

New Museum in Western Sydney I Development Options Assessment Page S

Alignment The Newwith Strategy Museum in

Western Sydney

MAAS Act

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Table 3: Qualitative Assessment Criteria and Reference Documents

Criteria Documents Description of Approach to AssessmentReferenced

Assess alignment with the New Museum in Western Sydney Vision:'a world class 21st century museum in Western Sydney, focused on Science and Innovation, that will meet the needs and aspirations of the community and deliver an exciting new cultural destination for the people of NSW and beyond.'Assess options for alignment to the 10 New Museum in Western Sydney Project Objectives.Project Objectives1. Create an architecturally iconic, and world-leading museum, which helps to shape each city, and

is specifically designed for the needs of the 21st Century.2. A contemporary museum that facilitates both physical and digital museum experiences

through personalisation, innovation, technology, knowledge sharing and exchange platforms.

World-class education and research facilities embedding3.

interactive and emerging technology.4. Create a facility that is has the capability to operate effectively, including to exhibit and store

elements of existing collections and touring exhibitions to internationally recognised standards.

5. Create a museum for that serves the needs of the NSW community and visitors, informed by outcomes of engagement.

6. Develop a place that encourages environmental and social sustainability.7. Develop a sustainable MAAS operating model that enables revenue raising and commercial

opportunities.8. Investigate the potential for appropriate, large scale commercial development on the site.

Utilise robust planning and delivery strategies to enable transition to the new Western Sydneymuseum environment.

Establish the foundation for a vibrant science, innovation9.

and cultural precinct in Western Sydney.10. The project is to achieve Value for Money and affordability for the Government.

Assess options for alignment with objects and functions of the Museum outlined in section 14 of the Act.


Compliance

Premier'swith Policy Priorities

Arts NSW, Create in NSW: The NSW Arts &

NU' G R O U P


Alignment with NSW Government key priority of increasing cultural participation through the following actions:· "Participation in the arts promotes personal and

collective wellbeing, as well as contributing strongly to an innovative and robust local economy. Increasing the

attendance at our cultural venues and events by 15% will have flow-on benefits for job creation, the visitor economy and education".

· "This requires strategic partnerships acrossgovernment, business, education and the creative industries to ensure NSW continues to lead the country in cultural employment, screen production and cultural tourism".

Create in NSW policy outlines various ambitions for excellence, access and strength, through the following actions:· "Increase strategic investment in Western Sydney"· "Develop creative partnerships in Western Sydney"· "Create a Parramatta Cultural Precinct"· "Support for the NSW .Arts and Disability Partnership"Broad alignment with other policy documents including the following:· A Plan for Growing Sydney· Draft West Central District Plan· Better Placed, Draft Architecture and Design Policy· NSW Disability Inclusion Plan· NSW State Health Plan· Create in NSW: NSW Arts and Cultural Policy Framework· Infrastructure NSW, State Infrastructure Strategy Update 2014· Transport for NSW Long Term Masterplan· NSW Ageing Strategy· NSW DEC 5 Year Strategic Plan· Jobs NSW, Jobs for the Future Report


GROUP


Sustainability The New Museum in Western Sydney Project Objective 6.

Alignment to environmental and sustainability requirements of the Project, including to 'Develop a place that encourages environmental and social sustainability', and specifically that the Project 'Outcome will enable incorporation of world-leading sustainable design initiatives.'

Government Alignment to GREP, and general ability to deliverResource favourable sustainability outcomes in relation to:Efficiency • EnergyPolicy • Water Use

· Waste· Clean Air

4 Master Plan / Preliminary Consideration of any risk or potential impact on PlanningPhysical Planning Due Diligence Advice, including the following keyParameters Advice considerations:

Traffic and Transport Assessment

The New Museum Parramatta Flood Study

Heritage Report

· Building Height· Floor space ratio· Incremental car parking requirement· Impact on heritage sites· Overall aestheticConsideration of any risks or constraints presented by vehicular access to the site and car parking requirements.Consideration of any risks or constraints presented by the impacts of flooding on site, with particular consideration of basement structures, and floor level requirements.Consideration of any risks or constraints presented by the retention and/or demolition of Heritage items on site.Assessment of both the alignment to these studies and the risk of planning related issues will be informed through consultation with the architect and planners to give consideration to the likely built form of each commercial option considered and the design impact of such in the context of the overall development.


CII0Ii


Alignment Parramatta Alignment with overall themes of the Parramatta Strategicwith Broader Strategic Framework, and particularly the following Values BasedParramatta Framework Criteria defined in that framework:Strategy • Resilient

· Vibrant· Respectful· Connected· Inclusive· Prosperous

Parramatta City Council, Culture and our City: A Cultural Discussion Paper for Parramatta's CBD

Alignment with specific goals in the Cultural Discussion Paper, as listed below:

Goal 1:· Create a regular program of events and festivals that

activate our outdoor, public and natural environment and take maximum advantage of the assets of the City

· Encourage partnerships and inbound investment to grow our annual events and festivals program

Goal 2:· Build on our Statement of Commitment to Youth

Engagement and develop a tailored process for young people in the city to inform, create, curate and occupy

Goal 3:· Identify partners, funding sources and possible sites for a

major new gallery or exhibition space

Goal 4:

· Establish environments for creative businesses to make the City their home


M O N MVP

3.2 Quantitative Assessment MethodologyThe quantitative, or financial, assessment involves development of a financial feasibility model for each option.The financial model first seeks to assess the likely land value that a developer would be willing to pay for the development opportunity. This modelling develops a cashflow based on developer cashflows including the following:

· Capital cost of developing option;· Revenues achieved from sales or rental; and· Taxes, rates and other expenses.

The modelling then uses a Discounted Cash Flow ("DCF") methodology to determine the land value that a developer would be able to afford whilst still achieving a commercial return from the development.Once the likely land payment is determined, the net value to the State may also be modelled, where applicable. Again, a DCF model is produced, using the following cashflows:

· Revenue from land sale to developer; and· Any altered cashflows for the New Museum.

Consideration of altered cashflows for the New Museum includes any capital costs associated with modifying the building design to accommodate additional development opportunities on the site, as well as recurrent cost impacts on museum operation.Once all cashflows are modelled, the Net Present Value ("NPV") of the development to the State is determined. Where the NPV is positive, this demonstrates that there is value to the State in proceeding with the development option.The modelling will also continue alternative commercial models that may provide a recurrent cashflow benefit, as opposed to a one-off land sale. These would include long term leases or other commercial structures designed to achieve consideration for land value in a recurrent manner.

3.2.1 Impact on New Museum CashflowsThe financial assessment from the State's perspective will not consider any change to the capital and operating cashflows associated with the New Museum at this stage. Changes to the capital cost may arise due to changes in building footprint or configuration, while operating cashflows may be affected by additional commercial or other facilities as part of the respective development options. These aspects may be incorporated into modelling at a future time when the scope and design of potential museum configurations is further developed.

3.2.2 Approach to Land PurchaseThe current proposal for the New Museum involves the State purchasing the full site, with this DOA then contemplating the sale of some of that land to a developer. This approach delivers best value to the State as it allows excess GFA not utilised in the museum development to be sold off as part of a development, which would not be possible if the State did not purchase the full site before seeking planning approval for the museum and any additional development.


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4 Potential Scope Inclusions

Four broad elements for potential inclusion within a commercial development were assessed. These elements were identified based on the findings of earlier development options assessment completed as part of the New Museum Business Case and a preliminary understanding of the market. The elements assessed were the following:

· Residential;· Commercial Office Space;· Accommodation (Hotel); and· Retail, specifically Food and Beverage.

4 .1 Assessment of Poten t ia l Inc lus ions

CBRE were commissioned to undertake a real estate market analysis of potential private development uses for inclusion in a combined museum-private development. This analysis assessed current and future market conditions and the likelihood of private developers having interest in pursuing each potential use. Where there was considered to be potential for interest in private sector development, appropriate assumptions to utilise in financial modelling were produced by CBRE.

The findings of the real estate market analysis are summarised in Table 4.

Table 4: Summa of Real Estate Market Anal sisPotential Scope Inclusion Summary of Finding

Residential Based on market analysis of benchmark projects, there is potentially appetite for further residential development in the area. Apartment values and take-up rates have been developed based on market evidence.

Commercial Office Space In the context of the current market, residential is likely to achieve a higher return than commercial office space. For commercial office, a pre-commitment to a minimum level of use is likely to be required from a Government department to facilitate private developer interest in providing additional office space.

The size of office space suitable for development would

likely be dependent on the State pre-commitment.Accommodation (Hotel) A hotel would not form part of the highest and best use of the

site. This is because there is significant supply coming online by 2020, with the upper end of the market becoming increasingly competitive.

Based on CBRE's experience with other mixed use

development projects, the inclusion of a hotel is likely to

Retail / Food & Beverage Gross rental yields for a number of retail and food & beverage options have been developed based on market evidence. The likelihood of achieving tenancies and commercial returns from these spaces is dependent on achieving a destination precinct at the site to allow access to more patrons than simply museum visitors.


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4.2 Scope Items Included in OptionsOn the basis of the analysis completed by CBRE, a hotel was not included inconsiderations as a potential inclusion as part of any additional development on the New Museum site. This is consistent with the findings of the prior Commercial Options Assessment conducted for earlier work on the New Museum Business Case, which found a hotel integrated within the New Museum scope to not be commercially viable.Retail or Food & Beverage has not been specifically included in the options assessment, because the yield on retail or F&B is lower than that for an equivalently sized commercial or residential development. Additionally, there is potential for MAAS to include food and beverage or retail components within the museum facility. Consequently, the options assessment, which is limited to packages of land distinct from the museum facilities, does not consider designated food and beverage or retail within the GFA allocations.Commercial office space was found likely to be of interest to developers only where a Government pre-commitment to long term leasing of office space is in place, this item has been carried forward for further analysis in order to determine whether there may be overall value to the State in such an arrangement.As a result of these findings, the following two scope items are considered as part of potential development options on the New Museum site:· Residential; and· Commercial Office Space (Government tenancy).

4.3 Mixed-Use OptionsThe options modelled and assessed contemplate exclusive use of towers for either residential or commercial use. It is possible to deliver mixed-use developments, with elements of both commercial and residential within a common building.The value of one such development has been assessed, in Option 9. There is potential to alter the percentage of residential and commercial space within the development to provide other options. Should a mixed-use option be pursued, the development value will fall within a range bounded by the value of a purely commercial and a purely residential development.


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4.4 Development AreaThe analysis undertaken has assumed that the available GFA for the development for the site is based upon the theoretical maximum GFA available in the B4 zone of the site. The B4 site area is 14,387, resulting in an FSR of 6:1 and GFA of 86,322 sqm. If a Design Excellent Bonus of 15% is achieved this increases to an FSR of 6.9:1 or 99,270.3 sqm. If an entirely non-residential Design Excellence Bonus of 25% was achieved there would be an increase to an FSR of 7.5:1 and GFA of 107,902sqm. Where the Design Excellence Bonus is achieved the maximum permissible building heights under the current LEP are 92m for residential developments and 100m for commercial developments.It has been assumed that St George's Terraces will be removed in all scenarios to enable the inclusion of the additional development options, and enable the construction of a functional museum. This is in accordance with the proposed siting options provided by CBRE that conclude that the optimal siting for commercial and/or residential tower is in the South/East corner of the site where the St George's Terraces are located. Willowgrove has been retained in two options.All proposals for additional built form on the site assume podium level parking, rather than basement or underground options. Consideration by TTVV, the project structural engineer, and PSM, geotechnical engineers, determined that a deep basement under any development would not be viable for two reasons. Very hard rock would be encountered at those levels, and due to the high water table at the site, tanking would be required to provide a fully waterproof basement. These requirements would be cost prohibitive, and consequently podium level parking is the option considered in design and costing of development options.

4.5 Separation of Museum and DevelopmentThe options considered propose that the museum and any additional development be conducted on discrete areas of the site. The possibility of development of a commercial or residential tower above the museum building was considered, however has been deemed to be unworkable for the following reasons:· Cost impacts on the museum design and build to allow for

significant additional structure on top of the museum building would be cost prohibitive;

· Such an arrangement would mean that the timeliness and cost of the museum delivery would be at risk due to developer construction works which is not an optimal transfer of risk;

· The likely development cost would be higher, in order to provide a tower which was integrated from a design and functionality perspective with the museum, which would reduce overall development value; and

· Integration of required car parking for the additional development would be difficult given the museum design requirements.

Consequently, in order to optimise the risk transfer between developer and the State, and to ensure best value-for-money in both the museum delivery and the potential development options, the possibility of development on top of the museum building was not considered further.


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5 Option Definition

Options for development have been defined by consultation and workshops with appropriate consultants, including architects, planning consultants and engineering consultants. The options defined provide a range of options for varying museum and development footprints, and consider site aspects such as vehicle and pedestrian access, interface with heritage elements and required setbacks from roads and other buildings.Ten options have been developed for assessment, as summarised in Table 5. The options are depicted in the Commercial Options Study developed by FKM, and attached as Appendix A. A summary of option assessment is provided below, with option assessment including technical consultant input shown in Appendix D.Table 5: Options Considered

Option Portion of Site Other Considerations Nature ofDeveloped Development

Option 1 South East portion Heritage building Commercial(Willowgrove) retained

Option 2 South East portion Heritage building Residential(Willowgrove) retained

Option 3 North West Portion Commercial

Option 4 North West portion Residential

Option 5 South East portion Heritage building not Commercialretained

Option 6 South East portion Heritage building not Residentialretained

Option 7 South East and North 1 each Commercial andWest portions Residential towers

Option 8 South East and North 2 Residential towersWest portions

Option 9 South East Portion Heritage building not 1 Tower, Commercialretained and Residential

Option 10 South East portion Heritage building not Commercialretained (Government tenant, no

lease incentive)

The scenarios model options that include 1 and 2 towers as part of the development on the site. In some instances, this does not utilise all available GFA on the overall site as overall tower area is limited by the height controls. An option to model 3 or more towers, which would provide for more overall development area, has been discounted. With consideration to setback and access requirements, the available space left to develop a contemporary, functional museum facility on the residual, highly reduced, site footprint would be severely compromised.


OptioTable 6: Plannin • Corn •

FSR Height Setbacks

PAXON GROUP

5.1 P lann ing Compl i ance

Each of these options have been assessed with respect to the compliance of each scheme with consideration to FSR, building height and setback requirements. All schemes modelled are compliant with the current Parramatta LEP (2011), as shown in Table 6.

Option 1 48,996m2 proposed 99.5m proposed Setbacks107,902m2 permitted (25% bonus) 100m permitted compliant

Compliant Compliant

Option 2 38,278m2 proposed 91.5m proposed Setbacks99,270.3m2 permitted (15% bonus) 92m permitted compliant

Compliant Compliant

Option 4 38,276m2 proposed 91.5m proposed

99,270.3m2 permitted (15% bonus) 92m permittedCompliant Compliant

Option 5 andOption 10

48,996m2 proposed

107,902m2 permitted (25% bonus)Compliant

99.5m proposed 100m permitted CompliantSetbacks

compliant

Option 6 38,276m2 proposed 91.5m proposed Setbacks99,270.3m2 permitted (15% DE 92m permitted compliant

bonus) Compliant

Compliant

Option 7 86,499m2 proposed99,270.3m2 permitted (15% DE bonus)

Compliant

Residential 91.5m proposed 92m permitted Commercial 99.5m proposed 100m permitted CompliantSetbacks

compliant

Option 8 75,264m2 proposed 91.5m proposed Setbacks

99,270.3m2 permitted (15% DE 92m permitted compliantbonus) Compliant

Compliant

Options 3 and 10 have not been specifically assessed for planning compliance due to later inclusion in the assessment, however as floor spaces and heights are consistent with other options these are considered to also be compliant.

New Museum in Western Sydney I Development Options Assessment Page 1S

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5.2 Architectural AssessmentThe project architects, FKM, have provided an overview of each option, summarising the project outcomes and relevant aspects of the overall site layout. This input informs the qualitative assessment of options conducted within the DOA, and is summarised in Table 7.Table 7: Summa of Architectural Assessment

Option New Museum Layout Outcomes Development LayoutOutcomes

Option 1

Floor plate workable and functional.Heritage item would need to function as the entry to enable Philip St entry to The New Museum. Connection possible to the public open space, connecting to Parramatta civic link, via Willowgrove.

Pedestrian entry via River Front WalkNew Museum to benefit from north facing, full river frontage.

Tower floor plate GBA 1836m2

Podium floor plate GBA 2400m2Good street address on Philip and

Wilde St cornerGood car park access from Philip

StreetGood pedestrian access from

Philip and Wilde St corner

Option 2 Floor plate workable and functional.

Heritage item would need to function as the entry to enable Philip St entry to The New Museum. Connection possible to the public open space, connecting to Parramatta civic link, via Willowgrove.Pedestrian entry via River Front Walk

Tower floor plate GBA 900m2 Podium floor plate GBA 2400m2Good street address on Philip and Wilde St cornerGood car park access from Philip StreetGood pedestrian access from Philip and Wilde St corner

Option 3 No specific advice provided, layout consistent with Option 4


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Option 4

Floor plate workable and functional.Main entry from Philip Street, with Pedestrian entry from Wilde and Philip Streets

Option 5 Floor plate workable and functional.New Museum entry from Philip Street via public open space to west of residential tower and pedestrian entry via River Front Walk.New Museum to benefit from north facing, full river frontage.

Tower floor plate GBA 900m2 Podium floor plate GBA 2400m2

Good street address on Philip and Wilde Street corner.

Good car park access from Philip Street.Good pedestrian access from Philip and Wilde Street corner.

Option 6 Floor plate workable and functional.New Museum entry from Philip Street via public open space to west of commercial tower and pedestrian entry via River Front Walk.

New Museum to benefit from north facing, full river frontage.

Tower floor plate GBA 1836m2 Podium floor plate GBA 2400m2

Good street address on Philip and Wilde Street corner

Good car park access from Philip StreetGood pedestrian access from Philip and Wilde Street corner

The New Museum benefit from street and river frontage.

The space between the New Museum and Residential tower creates circulation /visual link between Philip Street and the River, connecting to Parramatta civic link.

The New Museum is less affected by the presence of one tower in terms of functionality of footprint and site amenity.Tower floor plate GBA 900m2

Podium floor plate GBA 2400m2Residential Access via River Front

WalkResidential Car access via Philip

Street

New Museum in Western Sydney I Development Options Assessment Pane 20

PAXON GROUP


Option 7

New Museum Floor plate reduced and less functional.New Museum entry from Philip Street via public open space to west of commercial tower and pedestrian entry via River Front Walk.New Museum affected by reduced river frontage and reduced street frontage and smaller footprint to accommodate both towers.Potential for public open space highly limited by two towers.

South East Commercial Tower



Wilde Street cornerGood car park access from Philip


Philip and Wilde Street cornerNorth West Residential Tower


Podium floor plate GBA 2400m2Residential Access via River Front


Street

Option 8 New Museum Floor plate reduced

and less functional.New Museum entry from Philip Street via public open space to west of commercial tower and pedestrian entry via River Front Walk.New Museum affected by reduced river frontage and reduced street frontage and smaller footprint to accommodate both towers.Potential for public open space highly limited by two towers.

South East Residential Tower



Wilde Street cornerGood car park access from Philip


Philip and Wilde Street cornerNorth West Residential Tower


Podium floor plate'GBA 2400m2Residential Access via River Front


Street

Option 9 No specific advice provided, layout

consistent with Options 1 and 2 above.Option 10 As per Option 5 As per Option 5


PAXON CROUP

6 Modelling Assumptions

The quantitative assessment is conducted by developing a financial model for each option, based on a number of assumptions. These incorporate developer and financial assumptions, residential and commercial capital assumptions and general assumptions that are common to multiple options.

6.1 TimingThe below table shows the timing assumptions applicable to all options in the analysis.Assumption Value Explanatory Notes

Model Start Date 31-Dec-18 Expected date of land salerealisation.

Development Approval 30-Jun-2019 Date advised by costplanners.

Construction Duration 2 years

CBRE report,

construction duration

assumed to be 1 year

greater than current

controls modelling.

6.2 Developer and Financial AssumptionsThe modelling assumes that a developer will purchase the land available and undertake a development of the nature described under each option. This is considered the most likely development method, as the State does not typically undertake real estate or commercial developments, primarily as it seeks to avoid the risk associated with such projects.Cash flows to the developer, including outgoings such as construction and maintenance, and inflows in the form of sales and leasing of areas in the development, are discounted at the developer's Weighted Average Cost of Capital ("WACC") to determine the NPV of the development. The NPV of all future cash flows is then the amount that the developer would be willing to pay for the land, whilst allowing for sufficient value to be extracted from the development to ensure the required return to debt and equity hinders. NPV calculations are based on an assumed land sale date of 31-December-2018. All outputs are based on this date.The developers WACC is to be calculated using the assumptions presented in Table 8.

Table 9: Ca . ital Costs Development Option

GFA m2 Capital Cost

22,180 $207,025,738

l'AXON GROUP

Table 8: Develo . er WACC Assum . lions

Value Source

Gearing: Debt Percentage 50% Market precedent

Gearing: Equity Percentage 50% Market precedent

NSW Treasury 10 Year Bond Rate 2.84% NSW Treasury

Debt margin 250 bps Market precedent for similar transactions

The required return on equity for a developer will vary dependent on the project nature, the competitiveness of the market to obtain the land and development opportunity and external market conditions. For the purposes of analysis, a range of developer rates of return on equity between 15% and 20% will be considered, with results presented for both these values.

Utilising the assumptions in Table 8 and the range of developer equity returns, the WACC for a developer is calculated to be between 10.17% and 12.67%.

6.3 Construction and Development Assumptions

Capital cost estimates for each of the options were provided by the project cost planner, Rider Levett Bucknall, as a preliminary budget estimate. Consultant fees, council fees, preliminaries, builder's margin, contingency and escalation to completion is included in the total capital cost. The following table displays the capital costs and gross floor area ("GFA") utilised in the modelling.

Commercial Tower 36,980 $265,253,385The cost estimate is provided in Appendix B.Capital requirements for constructing the New Museum are fixed under each option at $450,000,000, based on a current estimate of museum cost. This assumption may be refined for each option once the New Museum scope is further developed, allowing the specific aspects of museum layout under each option to be reflected in varying capital costs.Construction of development options is assumed to be complete in 2023, consistent with prior timelines for the development of the New Museum.

6.4 Revenue Assumptions

The developer is assumed to earn revenue either through the sale of residential units, or through the lease of commercial space.

Residential sales are based on the assumptions shown in Table 10, with the unit numbers coming from FKM's architectural design work, and assumptions around value sourced from CBRE's real estate market analysis.


PAXON GROUP

Table 10: Residential Product Mix

Product Number per Tower Value ($/sqm)

Studio Apartments 24 12,000

1 Bedroom Apartments 76 12,5002 Bedroom Apartments 140 12,5003 Bedroom Apartments 28 13,000

The following assumptions are used to model residential sales.Table 11: Residential Sales

Assum tionsValue Source

Selling Costs 4% of sales price Market precedent

Holding Costs 0.2% of sales price Market precedentMarketing 0.75% of sales price Market precedentPre-Sales Proportion 50% Market evidenceUnit Take-Up Rate 20 / month Assumption based on precedent

transactions

Assumptions relating to the revenue derived from commercial leasing are shown in Table 12.Table 12: Commercial Lease Assum . tions

Value Source

Rental $550 / sqm CBRE Analysis

Capitalisation Rate 6% CBRE AnalysisLease Incentive 20% CBRE Analysis


VAX 0 N GROUP

Assessment of Development Options


I'AXIIN G ft 0 El P

7 Option 1

7.1 Description of Scope ItemIn this option the heritage building, Willowgrove, has been retained in the centre of the site. A commercial tower is modelled on the South Eastern portion of the site, on the corner of Philip Street and Wilde Avenue. This site layout provides the optimum positioning for commercial space due to the street address and frontage, whilst providing the New Museum with full river frontage.Option 1 is shown in Figure 1 below.Figure 1: Option 1

The New Museum is modelled to a GBA of 16,096 sqm, and the commercial tower is modelled to the maximum permissible 100m commercial height limit.

7.2 Qualitative AssessmentThe assessment of Option 1 against the five defined qualitative criteria is summarised in Table 13.

P GROUP

Table 13: Qualitative Assessment 0 .tion 1Criteria Risk Level Reasoning for Risk Level Assigned

Alignment with Strategy

Low The addition of commercial development to the site is not aligned with the overall New Museum strategy, however this option does not allocate a significant portion of the site for development.There is also a risk of damaging community perception of the New Museum, as it may be seen as a commercial development through the inclusion of additional development at the site. This risk could be mitigated if commercial development or Compliance Low This option is unlikely to impact on policy compliance,

with Policy and will align well with aspects of policy such as the development of the Parramatta CBD and the developmentof the Western Sydney corridor.

Sustainability Low The inclusion of commercial development is unlikely toimpact on the sustainability of the overall site.

Master Plan /MediumPhysical

Parameters

Whilst Willowgrove is retained, the St George's Terraces are removed which poses a heritage risk. The retention of Willowgrove however, also constrains public access to the Museum from the City.The inclusion of commercial development will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct. The reduction in available public space conflicts with the City of Parramatta Council's Parramatta City River Plan and River Square precinct strategy aimed at providing a world-class public domain. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site.Increased traffic and parking requirements, as a result of the commercial development,

Alignment with Broader Parramatta Strategy

Low

The addition of further commercial development to the

precinct would be consistent with, and hence a low risk

to, the strategies outlined for the Parramatta area,

particularly as it is likely to increase prosperity and

activity in central Parramatta.However, the inclusion of commercial development will

reduce the amount of open space available for the

precinct, and compromise the design of the museum

building. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of

the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of

the site, making it a less appealing site and less of a

cultural landmark within Parramatta.New Museum in Western Sydney I Development Options Assessment Page 27

7.4 Summary of ResultsResults for Option 1 are summarised in the table below.

I AXON GROUP

In summary, this option is accorded an overall risk ranking of Low-Medium, as it does not overly compromise the site or the ability to accomplish the major objectives of the New Museum project. It does however present issues with site master planning and achievement of broader Parramatta strategic planning outcomes for the site.

7.3 Financial AssessmentThe financial assessment was conducted on the basis of the assumptions outlined in Section 6. Results have been determined for a range of developer equity returns, as shown in Table 14

The negative NPV calculated suggests that the return gained from commercial leases is insufficient to cover the cost of construction at the required developer margin, and as such a

commercial developer would not be willing to pay for the land to

undertake such a development. This result is driven by the lease value determined in the real estate market analysis, and the inclusion of a lease incentive to attract a long term tenant.


PAM G fit 11

8 Option 2

8.1 Description of Scope ItemOption 2 models a residential tower on the South Eastern portion of the site on the corner of Philip Street and Wilde Avenue. The heritage building, Willowgrove, has been retained in the centre of the site.Option 2 is shown in Figure 2 below.

Figure 2: Option 2

The New Museum is modelled around the heritage building to a GBA of 16,096 sqm, and the residential tower is modelled to the 92m height limit.



I'AXIIN GROUP

Table 16: Qualitative Assessment: 0 • tion 2Criteria Risk Level Reasoning for Risk Level Assigned


Medium The addition of residential development to the site is not aligned with the overall Museum strategy, however this option does not allocate a significant portion of the site for development.There is also a risk of damaging community perception of the New Museum, as it may be seen as a commercial development through the inclusion of additional development at the site. This risk is more material than for options considering commercial space, as

Compliance Low This option is unlikely to impact on policy compliance,with Policy and will align well with aspects of policy

such as the development of the Parramatta CBD and the developmentof the Western Sydney corridor.

Sustainability Low The inclusion of residential development is unlikely toimpact on the sustainability of the overall site.

Master Plan / Medium Whilst Willowgrove is retained, the St George's TerracesPhysical are removed which poses a heritage risk. The retention ofParameters Willowgrove however, also constrains

public access to the Museum from the City.The inclusion of residential development will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct. The reduction in available public space conflicts with the City of Parramatta Council's Parramatta City River Plan and River Square precinct strategy aimed at providing a world-class public domain. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site.Increased traffic and parking requirements, as a result of the residential development, also pose a risk to planning and approvals. Car park access is likely to be near to the existing intersection of Wilde and Phillip streets, and may cause inconvenience to drivers or excess vehicle movements through the CBD for circulation.

Alignment Low The addition of further residential development to thewith Broader precinct would be consistent with, and hence a low riskParramatta to, the strategies outlined for the Parramatta area,Strategy particularly as it is likely to attract

further population growth in central Parramatta.However, the indusion of residential development, through an apartment tower, will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct, and compromise the design of the museum building. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the

museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site, making it a less appealing site and less of a cultural landmark within Parramatta.


I 1M GROUP

In summary, this option is accorded an overall risk ranking of Low-Medium, as it does not overly compromise the site or the ability to accomplish the major objectives of the New Museum project. It does however present issues with site master planning and achievement of broader Parramatta strategic planning outcomes for the site.

8.3 Financial AssessmentThe financial assessment was conducted on the basis of the assumptions outlined in Section 6. Results have been determined for a range of developer equity returns, as shown in Table 17.Table 17: 0 . tion 2 Results

Developer NPV Museum Cost Project CostEquity Return

15%20%

The positive NPV, of betwee , indicates the land value that a developer would be willing to pay to access the development opportunity.

8.4 Summary of ResultsResults for Option 2 are summarised in the table below.Table 18: 0 . tion 2 S

Qualitative Risk Potential Value Overall Assessment

Option 2 Low Viable


PAXON GROUP

9 Option 3

9.1 Description of Scope Item

Option 3 models a commercial tower on the North West portion of the site, with the New Museum occupying the remainder of the site, as shown in Figure 3 below. No heritage elements are retained.

Figure 3: Option 3

The New Museum is modelled to a GBA of 16,096sqm, and the residential tower is modelled to the maximum permissible 92m height limit.

9.2 Qualitative Assessment

The assessment of Option 3 against the five defined qualitative criteria is summarised in Table 19.


I'AXIIN GROUP

Table 19: Qualitative Assessment: 0 . tion 3Criteria Risk Level Reasoning for Risk Level Assigned


Low The addition of commercial development to the site is not aligned with the overall New Museum strategy, however this option does not allocate a significant portion of the site for development.There is also a risk of damaging communityperception of the New Museum, as it may be seen as a commercial development through the inclusion of additional development at the site. This risk could be mitigated if commercial Compliance Low This option is unlikely to impact on policy

with Policy compliance, and will align well with aspects of policysuch as the development of the Parramatta CBD and the development of the Western Sydney corridor.

Sustainability Low The inclusion of commercial development is unlikelyto impact on the sustainability of the overall site.

Master Plan / Medium This option contemplates the removal of the twoPhysical heritage sites currently on the New Museum site,Parameters which may pose a heritage or planning risk.

The inclusion of commercial development will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct. The reduction in available public space conflicts with the City of Parramatta Council's Parramatta City River Plan and River Square precinct strategy aimed at providing a world-class public domain. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site.Increased traffic and parking requirements, as a result of the commercial development, also pose a risk to planning and approvals. Car park access is likely to be via the existing service lane and may require intersection improvements. This may cause inconvenience to drivers or excess vehicle movements through the CBD for circulation.


Low

The addition of further commercial development to

the precinct would be consistent with, and hence a

low risk to, the strategies outlined for the Parramatta

area, particularly as it is likely to increase prosperity

and activity in central Parramatta.However, the inclusion of commercial development will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct, and compromise the design of the museum building. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site, making it a less appealing site and less of a cultural landmark within Parramatta.


Developer Equity Return

NPV Museum Cost Project Cost

1\k 0 ̂ i CROUP

In summary, this option is accorded an overall risk ranking of Low to Medium, as it does not overly compromise the site or the ability to accomplish the major objectives of the New Museum project. However, it presents some heritage and planning risks and reduces the overall site area for the New Museum and complementary activities and facilities.

9.3 Financial AssessmentThe financial assessment was conducted on the basis of the assumptions outlined in Section 6. Results have been determined for a range of developer equity returns, as shown in Table 20.Table 20: 0 . tion 3 Results

15%20%

The negative NPV calculated suggests that the return gained from commercial leases is insufficient to cover the cost of construction at the required developer margin, and as such a commercial developer would not be willing to pay for the land to undertake such a development. This result is driven by the lease value determined in the real estate market analysis, and the inclusion of a lease incentive to attract a long term tenant.

9.4 Summary of ResultsResults for Option 3 are summarised in the table below.

Table 21: 0 tion 3 Summa


Option 3 Low to Medium Not Viable

P1XON GROUP

1 0 Option 4

10.1 Description of Scope ItemOption 4 models a residential tower on the North West portion of the site, with the New Museum occupying the remainder of the site, as shown in Figure 4 below. No heritage elements are retained.

Figure 4: Option 4

The New Museum is modelled to a GBA of 16,096sqm, and the residential tower is modelled to the maximum permissible 92m height limit.

10.2 Quali ta t ive AssessmentThe assessment of Option 4 against the five defined qualitative criteria is summarised in Table 22 below.


IIXON GROUP

Table 22: Qualitative Assessment 0 • tion 4Criteria Risk Level Reasoning for Risk Level Assigned


Medium The addition of residential development to the site is not aligned with the overall Museum strategy, however this option does not allocate a significant portion of the site for development.There is also a risk of damaging community perception of the New Museum, as it may be seen as a commercial development through the indusion of additional development at the site. This risk is more material than for options considering commercial space, as there is no potential link between residential development and the museum's activities.

Compliance Low This option is unlikely to impact on policy compliance, andwith Policy will align well with aspects of policy such as the

development of the Parramatta CBD and the developmentof the Western Sydney corridor.


Master Plan / Medium This option contemplates the removal of the two heritagePhysical sites currently on the New Museum site, which may pose aParameters heritage or planning risk.

The inclusion of residential development will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct. The reduction in available public space conflicts with the City of Parramatta Council's Parramatta City River Plan and River Square precinct strategy aimed at providing a world-dass public domain. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site.Increased traffic and parking requirements, as a result of the residential development, also pose a risk to planning and approvals. Car park access is likely to be via the existing service lane and may require intersection improvements. This may cause inconvenience to drivers or excess vehicle movements through the CBD for circulation.

Alignment Low The addition of further residential development to thewith Broader precinct would be consistent with, and hence a low risk to,Parramatta the strategies outlined for the Parramatta area, particularlyStrategy as it is likely to attract further population growth in central

Parramatta.However, the inclusion of residential development, through an apartment tower, will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct, and compromise the design of the museum building. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site, making it a less appealing site and less of a cultural landmark within Parramatta.


Table 23: 0 • lion 4

I MIN GROUP


10.3 Financial AssessmentThe financial assessment was conducted on the basis of the assumptions outlined in Section 6. Results have been determined for a range of developer equity returns, as shown in Table 23.

The positive NPV, of between indicates the land value that a developer would be willing to pay to access the development opportunity.

10.4 Summary of Resul tsResults for Option 4 are summarised in the table below.Table 24: Option 4 Summary


Option 4 Low to Medium Viable


('AXON GROUP

1 1 Option 5

11.1 Description of Scope Item

Under Option 5 a commercial tower is constructed on the South Eastern portion of the site on the corner of Philip Street and Wilde Avenue. All

existing heritage sites are removed.Figure 5: Option 5

The New Museum is modelled to a GBA of 16,0

96sqm, and the commercial tower is modelled to the maximum permissible 100m commercial height limit.

11.2 Qualitative Assessment

The assessment of Option 5 against the five defined qualitative criteria is summarised in Table 25.

New Museum in Western Sydney I Development Options Assessment

Criteria Risk Level

Alignment Low with Strategy

l'1XON GROHP

Table 25: Qualitative Assessment • • Lion 5Reasoning for Risk Level Assigned

The addition of commercial development to the site is not aligned with the overall New Museum strategy, however this option does not allocate a significant portion of the site for development.There is also a risk of damaging community perception of the New Museum, as it may be seen as a commercial development through the inclusion of additional development at the site. This risk could be mitigated if commercial development or tenants are complementary to the museum or general cultural purposes.


development of the Parramatta CBD and the development of the Western Sydney corridor.



Parameters

This option contemplates the removal of the two heritage sites currently on the New Museum site, which may pose a heritage or planning risk.The inclusion of commercial development will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct. The reduction in available public space conflicts with the City of Parramatta Council's Parramatta City River Plan and River Square precinct strategy aimed at providing a world-class public domain. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site.Increased traffic and parking requirements, as a result of the development, also pose a risk to planning and approvals. Car park access is likely to


Low The addition of further commercial development to the precinct would be consistent with, and hence a low risk to, the strategies outlined for the Parramatta area, particularly as it is likely to increase prosperity and activity in central Parramatta.However, the inclusion of commercial development will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct, and compromise the design of the museum building. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to




PAXON GROUP


11.3 Financial AssessmentThe financial assessment was conducted on the basis of the assumptions outlined in Section 6. Results have been determined for a range of developer equity returns, as shown in Table 26.Table 26: 0 • lion 5 Results

15%20%

The negative NPV calculated suggests that the return gained from commercial leases is insufficient to cover the cost of construction at the required developer margin, and as such a commercial developer would not be willing to pay for the land to undertake such a development. This result is driven by the lease value determined in the real estate market analysis, and the inclusion of a lease incentive to attract a long term tenant.

11.4 Summary of ResultsResults for Option 5 are summarised in the table below.T a b l e 2 7 : O p t i o n 5 S u m m a r y


Option 5 Low to Medium Not Viable

IAXIIN GROUP

12 option 6

12.1 Description of Scope ItemOption 6 models a residential tower on the South Eastern portion of the site, on the corner of Philip St and Wilde Avenue. No heritage elements are retained on the site.

Figure 6: Option 6

The New Museum is modelled to a GBA of 16,096sqm, and the residential tower is modelled to the 92m height limit.

12.2 Quali ta t ive AssessmentThe assessment of Option 6 against the five defined qualitative criteria is summarised in Table 28.


PAXON CROUP

Table 28: Qualitative Assessment • . tion 6Criteria Risk Level Reasoning for Risk Level Assigned


Medium The addition of residential development to the site is not aligned with the overall New Museum strategy, however this option does not allocate a significant portion of the site for development.There is also a risk of damaging community perception of the New Museum, as it may be seen as a commercial development through the inclusion of additional development at the site. This risk is more material than for options considering commercial space, as there is no potential




Master Plan / Medium This option contemplates the removal of the two heritagePhysical sites currently on the New Museum site, which may pose aParameters heritage or planning risk.

The inclusion of residential development will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct. The reduction in available public space conflicts with the City of Parramatta Council's Parramatta City River Plan and River Square precinct strategy aimed at providing a world-class public domain. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site.Increased traffic and parking requirements, as a result of the residential development, also pose a risk to planning and approvals. Car park access is likely to be near to the existing intersection of Wilde and Phillip streets, and may cause inconvenience to drivers or excess vehicle movements through the CBD for circulation.

Alignment Low The addition of further residential development to thewith Broader precinct would be consistent with, and hence a low risk to,Parramatta the strategies outlined for the Parramatta area, particularlyStrategy as it is likely to attract further population

growth in central Parramatta.However, the inclusion of residential development, through an apartment tower, will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct, and compromise the design of the museum building. This has

the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site, making it a less appealing site and less of a cultural landmark within Parramatta.


l'AXON GROUP


12.3 Financial AssessmentThe financial assessment was conducted on the basis of the assumptions outlined in Section 6. Results have been determined for a range of developer equity returns, as shown in Table 29.Table 29: 0 • tion 6 Results

Developer NPV Museum Cost Project CostEquity Return

15%

20%


12.4 Summary of Resul tsResults for Option 6 are summarised in the table below.Table 30: Option 6 Summary




l'1XON CROUP

1 3 Option 7

13.1 Description of Scope ItemOption 7 models two towers on the site, a commercial tower in the South Eastern portion of the site and a residential development in the North West portion, facing the river. No heritage elements are retained on the site.Figure 7: Option 7

The New Museum is modelled to a GBA of 16,096 sqm, and the towers are modelled to the 92m residential and 100m commercial height limits, respectively. Under this option the New Museum building is expected to have a smaller footprint and greater height than in earlier options.


I AXON GROUP

Table 31: Qualitative Assessment IP .lion 7Criteria Risk Level Reasoning for Risk Level Assigned


High

The addition of residential development to the site is not aligned with the overall New Museum strategy.The inclusion of a two-tower development will reduce the available land area for museum development, without the acquisition of the GE site. This may lead to additional design considerations to deliver the facility within the available footprint.There is also a risk of damaging community perception of the New Museum, as it may be seen as a commercial development through the inclusion of additional development at the site. This risk is more material than for options considering commercial space, as there is no potential link between residential development and the

Compliance with Policy

Medium

meurrt's activities.

option will align well with aspects of policy such as

the development of the Parramatta CBD and the

development of the Western Sydney corridor.However, the opportunity to develop a Parramatta Cultural precinct, in line with Create in NSW policy, may be compromised by the limited footprint for the New Museum and associated cultural facilities.

Sustainability Low The inclusion of commercial and residential developmentis unlikely to impact on the sustainability of the overall site.


IAXON GROUP

Criteria Risk Level Reasoning for Risk Level Assigned

Master Plan / Physical Parameters

High This option contemplates the removal of the two heritage sites currently on the New Museum site, which may pose a heritage or planning risk.The inclusion of two towers as part of the development will significantly reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct, without the acquisition of the GE site. The reduction in available public space conflicts with the City of Parramatta Council's Parramatta City River Plan and River Square precinct strategy aimed at providing a world-class public domain. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site.Increased traffic and parking requirements, as a result of the development, also pose a risk to planning and approvals. Car park access is likely to be near to the existing intersection of Wilde and Phillip streets, and may cause inconvenience to drivers or excess vehicle movements through the CBD for circulation. There will also be a requirement for access through the existing service lane which may require intersection improvements and additional approval.Whilst preliminary planning advice Alignment Medium The addition of further residential development to the

with Broader precinct would be consistent with, and hence a low risk to,Parramatta the strategies outlined for the Parramatta area, particularlyStrategy as it is likely to attract further population

growth in central Parramatta.However, the scale of development through two towers will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct, and compromise the design of the museum building, without the acquisition of the GE site. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site, making it a less appealing site and less of a cultural landmark within Parramatta. This may also compromise the objective of growing events and festivals given the limited publicspace m and around the New Museum.

In summary, this option is accorded an overall risk ranking of Medium to High, as it compromises the site and the resulting ability to accomplish the major objectives of the New Museum project. It presents heritage and planning risks, particularly in relation to traffic and site access, and reduces the overall site area for the New Museum and complementary activities and facilities.



I AXON GROUP

13.3 Financia l Assessment

The financial assessment was conducted on the basis of the assumptions outlined in Section 6. Results have been determined for a range of developer equity returns, as shown in Table 32.Table 32: 0 . tion 7 Results

15 %

2 0 %

As with earlier options involving commercial development, the negative NPV from the commercial portion is affecting the overall results. This result is driven by the lease value determined in the real estate market analysis, and the inclusion of a lease incentive to attract a long term tenant.

13.4 Summary of Resul ts

Results for Option 7 are summarised in the table below.Table 33: 0 . tion 7 Summa


Option 7 Medium to High Not Viable


!AXON GROUP

1 4 Option 8

14.1 Description of Scope ItemOption 8 models two residential towers on the site, in both the South East and North West portions. As with Option 7, the New Museum building will occupy a smaller footprint and hence be a taller building than in earlier options.Figure 8: Option 8

The New Museum is modelled to a GBA of 16,096sqm, and the residential towers are modelled to the 92m height limit.

14.2 Quali tative AssessmentThe assessment of Option 8 against the five defined qualitative criteria is summarised in Table 34.


I AXON GROUP

Table 34: Qualitative Assessment Option 8Criteria Risk Level Reasoning for Risk Level Assigned


High The addition of residential development to the site is not aligned with the overall New Museum strategy.The inclusion of a two-tower development will reduce the available land area for museum development. This may lead to additional design considerations to deliver the facility within the available footprint.There is also a risk of damaging community perception of the New Museum, as it may be seen as a commercial development through the inclusion of additional development at the site. This risk is more material than for options considering

Compliance Medium This option will align well with aspects of policy such aswith Policy the development of the Parramatta CBD and the

development of the Western Sydney corridor.However, the opportunity to develop a Parramatta Cultural precinct, in line with Create in NSW policy, may be compromised by the limited footprint for the New Museum and associated cultural facilities.



l' 1 XGROUP


Master Plan / Physical Parameters

High This option contemplates the removal of the two heritage sites currently on the New Museum site, which may pose a heritage or planning risk.The inclusion of two towers as part of the development will significantly reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct. The reduction in available public space conflicts with the City of Parramatta Council's Parramatta City River Plan and River Square precinct strategy aimed at providing a world-class public domain. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site.Increased traffic and parking requirements, as a result of the development, also pose a risk to planning and approvals. Car park access is likely to be near to the existing intersection of Wilde and Phillip streets, and may cause inconvenience to drivers or excess vehicle movements through the CBD for circulation. There will also be a requirement for access through the existing service lane which may require intersection improvements and additional approval.

Alignment Medium The addition of further residential development to thewith Broader precinct would be consistent with, and hence a low risk to,Parramatta the strategies outlined for the Parramatta area, particularlyStrategy as it is likely to attract further population

growth in central Parramatta.However, the scale of development through two towers will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct, and compromise the design of the museum building. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site, making it a less appealing site and less of a cultural landmark within Parramatta. This may also compromise the objective of growing events and festivals given the limited public space in and around the New Museum.

In summary, this option is accorded an overall risk ranking of Medium to High, as it compromises the site and the resulting ability to accomplish the major objectives of the New Museum project. It presents heritage and planning risks, particularly in relation to traffic and site access, and reduces the overall site area for the New Museum and complementary activities and facilities.

Museum Cost Project CostN

IVAN CROUP

14.3 Financial AssessmentThe financial assessment was conducted on the basis of the assumptions outlined in Section 6. Results have been determined for a range of developer equity returns, as shown in Table 35.Table 35: 0 •tion 8 Results


1 5 %

2 0 %


14.4 Summary of ResultsResults for Option 8 are summarised in the table below.Table 36: O. tion 8 Summa


Option 8 Medium to High Not Viable


1XON GROUP

1 5 Option 9

15.1 Description of Scope ItemOption 9 models a mixture of residential and commercial space within one tower located on the South East portion of the site. All existing heritage sites are removed as shown in Figure 9 below.Figure 9: Option 9

The New Museum is modelled to a GBA of 16,096sqm, while the residential component of the tower has a GBA of 13,500sqm and the commercial component a GBA of 26,688sqm.


PNXI N GROUP

Table 37: Qualitative Assessment 0 tion 9



Low The addition of a mixed commercial and residential development to the site is not aligned with the overall New Museum strategy, however this option does not allocate a significant portion of the site for development.There is also a risk of damaging community perception of the New Museum, as it may be seen as a commercial development through the inclusion of additional development at the Compliance Low This option is unlikely to impact on policy compliance,

andwith Policy will align well with aspects of policy such as the


Sustainability Low The inclusion of a mixed commercial and residentialdevelopment is unlikely to impact on the sustainability of the overall site.


Parameters

This option contemplates the removal of the two heritage sites currently on the New Museum site, which may pose a heritage or planning risk.The inclusion of a mixed commercial and residential development will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct. The reduction in available public space conflicts with the City of Parramatta Council's Parramatta City River Plan and River Square precinct strategy aimed at providing a world-class public domain. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to affect the overall appeal of the site.Increased traffic and parking requirements, as a result of the development, also pose a risk to planning and approvals. Car park access is likely to


Low The addition of residential and commercial development to the precinct would be consistent with, and hence a low risk to, the strategies outlined for the Parramatta area, particularly as it is likely to increase prosperity and activity in central Parramatta.However, the inclusion of additional development will reduce the amount of open space available for the precinct, and compromise the design of the museum building. This has the potential to reduce the vibrancy of the museum precinct and to




PA X N GROUP


15.3 Financial AssessmentThe financial assessment was conducted on the basis of the assumptions outlined in Section 6. Results have been determined for a range of developer equity returns, as shown in Table 38.Table 38: Financial Assessment 0 . tion 9

1 5 %

2 0 %


15.4 Summary of ResultsResults for Option 9 are summarised in the table below.Table 39: Summary of Results Option 9




1 11(11 11 GROUP

1 6 Option 10

16.1 Description of Scope ItemOption 10 is identical to Option 5 in physical form, allowing for a commercial tower on the South Eastern portion of the site.Option 10 differs from other commercial options in that it does not assume that a lease incentive is required to secure a long term lease. This assumption is based on an assumed Government tenant making a pre-commitment to a long term lease without the requirement for an incentive.Figure 10: Option 10

16.2 Qualitative AssessmentOption 10 has an identical qualitative risk profile to Option 5, given that it provides for the same built form on the site.Option 10 is therefore accorded an overall risk ranking of Low to Medium, as it does not overly compromise the site or the ability to accomplish the major objectives of the New Museum project. However, it presents some heritage and planning risks and reduces the overall site area for the New Museum and complementary activities and facilities.

16.3 Financial AssessmentThe financial assessment was conducted on the basis of the assumptions outlined in Section 6, and with the lease incentive removed for the commercial rental. Results have been determined for a range of developer equity returns, as shown in Table 40.

New Museum in Western Sydney 1 Development Options Assessment Page 55

Table 40: 0 lion 10

Museum Cost Project

12

GROUP

While these results show a positive NPV for the development, this value to a developer is being underpinned by the assumed Government tenant effectively overpaying on market rent to lease the building. Hence this option is only viable if two key assumptions are valid:· That a Government tenant willing to lease the full building can be

found; and· That the tenant is willing to commit to a long-term

lease without any lease incentive, effectively paying above market rental.

Under this option Government underpins the development value by paying for the long-term commercial lease. Over a 40 year term, the additional lease payment by removing the lease incentive, which effectively represents the premium above amarket rent value, is approximately___________in net present value terms. This indicates that while the option may be viable to a developer, it does not present a value-for-money option to Government as a whole.

16.4 Summary of ResultsResults for Option 10 are summarised in the table below.Table 41: 0 . lion 10 Summ


Option 5 Low to Medium Viable to Developer

Qualitative











Potential Value Overall Assessment

Not Viable

Viable

Not Viable

Viable

Not Viable

Viable

Not Viable

Not Viable

Viable

Viable to Developer

I1XON CROUP

1 7 Conclusions & Further Analysis

The overall findings of the qualitative and quantitative analysis are summarised in Table 42 below. The potential value shown for each option is a likely land value payable by a developer in order to access the development opportunity, and this value can be considered as an offset to the capital cost of the New Museum.

Table 42: Sttmm of Findin

In summary, commercial development does not appear to be viable, due to the low lease rates and the requirement to offer a lease incentive to attract tenants. Were a Government tenant able to commit to a long-term lease, at a rate which did not require a lease incentive, there may be value to a developer in providing this space. However, this would not reflect an overall value-for-money decision for Government.Options involving two towers of development are not considered viable due to the high qualitative risk level, without the acquisition of the GE site.

As a result, single-tower residential options are seen to be the most viable potentialdevelopment options, delivering betweerl as land divestment value. Further detailed modelling of the implications on New Museum, layout and design, and hence capital cost, will be required to select the option which achieves the best return.

Achieving a return at the higher end of the range shown will be dependent on a developer becoming comfortable with a low level of risk associated with the project, allowing the developer to accept a return on equity at the lower end of typical development returns. The overall final divestment value will also be contingent on the assumptions from the prior real estate market analysis, cost planning and other inputs remaining valid at the time a transaction is completed.


I AXON GROUP

Appendix A — Commercial Options Study
