Assessment of Potential Arbitrage Opportunities

Presented By

Akhil Akram KaranKiriti

Naseer

BLADES, INC.CASE

• Blades’ invoice is in THB

• Blades’ primary customer in Thailand has

• committed to purchase a certain quantity of Speedos if the invoice remains as THB Current forecasts are dismal: increase in inflation, decrease in national income, and depreciation of the Baht.

1.The first arbitrage opportunity relates to locational arbitrage. Holt has obtained spot rate quotations from two banks in Thailand, Minzu Bank and Sobat Bank, both located in Bangkok. The bid and ask prices of Thai baht for each bank are displayed in the table below:

Minzu Bank Sobat Bank

Bid $0.0224 $0.0228

Ask $0.0227 $0.0229

Determine whether the foreign exchange quotations are appropriate. If they are not appropriate, determine the profit you could generate by withdrawing $100,000 from Blades’ checking account and engaging in arbitrage before the rates are adjusted.

Locational arbitrage is possible:

Buy Thai baht from Minzu Bank 4,405,286.34

($100,000/$0.0227)

Sell Thai baht to Sobat Bank 100,440.53

(THB4,405,286.34 × $0.0228)

Dollar profit 440.53

($100,440.53 – $100,000)

• Besides the bid and ask quotes for the Thai baht provided in the previous question, Minzu Bank has provided the following quotations for the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen:

Quoted Bid Price Quoted Ask Price

Value of a Japanese yen $0.0085 $0.0086 in U.S. dollars Value of a Thai baht in ¥2.69 ¥2.70 Japanese yen Determine whether the cross exchange rate between the

Thai baht and Japanese yen is appropriate. If it is not appropriate, determine the profit you could generate for Blades Inc, by withdrawing $100,000 from Blades’ checking account and engaging in triangular arbitrage before the rates are adjusted.

Triangular arbitrage is possible.

Triangular Arbitrage • 1. Exchange dollars for Thai baht

($100,000/$0.0227) 4,405,286.34

• 2. Convert the Thai baht into Japanese yen (THB4,405,286.34 × ¥2.69)

11,850,220.25• 3. Convert the Japanese yen into dollars • (¥11,850,220.26 × $0.0085)

100,726.87• 4. Dollar profit ($100,726.87 – $100,000)

726.87

• Ben Holt has obtained several forward contract quotations for the Thai baht to determine whether covered interest arbitrage may be possible. He was quoted a forward rate of $0.0225 per Thai baht for a 90-day forward contract. The current spot rate is $0.0227. Ninety-day interest rates available to Blades in the U.S. are 2 percent, while 90-day interest rates in Thailand are 3.75 percent (these rates are not annualized). Holt is aware that covered interest arbitrage, unlike locational and triangular arbitrage, requires an investment of funds. Thus, he would like to be able to estimate the dollar profit resulting from arbitrage over and above the dollar amount available on a 90-day U.S. deposit.

Determine whether the forward rate is priced appropriately. If it is not priced appropriately, determine the profit you could generate for Blades by withdrawing $100,000 from Blades’ checking account and engaging in covered interest arbitrage. Measure the profit as the excess amount above what you could generate by investing in the U.S. money market

• Covered interest arbitrage is possible.

Covered Interest Arbitrage

1. On Day 1, convert U.S. dollars to Thai baht and set up a 90-day deposit

account at a Thai bank ($100,000/$0.0227) 4,405,286.34

2. In 90 days, the Thai deposit will mature to THB4,405,286.34 × 1.0375,

which is the amount to be sold forward 4,570,484.58

3. In 90 days, convert the Thai baht into U.S. dollars at the agreed-upon rate

(THB4,570,484.58 × $0.0225) 102,835.90

4. Dollar amount available on a 90-day U.S. deposit ($100,000 × 1.02)

102,000.00

5. Dollar profit over and above the dollar amount available on a 90-day U.S.

deposit ($102,835.90 – $100,000) 2,835.90

4. Why are arbitrage opportunities likely to disappear soon after they have been discovered? To illustrate your answer, assume that covered interest arbitrage involving the immediate purchase and forward sale of baht is possible. Discuss how the baht’s spot and forward rates would adjust until covered interest arbitrage is no longer possible. What is the resulting equilibrium state called?

Arbitrage opportunities are likely to disappear soon after they have been discovered because of market forces. Due to the actions taken by arbitrageurs, supply and demand for the foreign currency adjust until the mispricing disappears.

For example, covered interest arbitrage involving the immediate purchase and subsequent sale of Thai baht would place upward pressure on the spot rate of the Thai baht and downward pressure on the Thai baht forward rate until covered interest arbitrage is no longer possible.

At that point, interest rate parity exists, and the interest rate differential between the two countries is exactly offset by the forward premium or discount.

Thank you