casco bay at usm...casco bay a marine dominated coastal embayment tidal water exchange is (usually)...

CASCO BAY AT USM

Towards Place-based Academic Excellence

Curtis C. Bohlen Director, Casco Bay Estuary Partnership

Outline

Setting the Stage the shape of the problem, the opportunity

Who or what is the Casco Bay Estuary Partnership? This is not just for the sciences… Condition of Casco Bay (and its watershed) Recent CBEP research projects Bringing it all together

Connecting CBEP with the academy Initial ideas

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Don’t like to start with an outline, but I’ll make an exception today Note I don’t really define what I mean by “place based” explicitly

The Message:

A place-based environmental focus: Allows exploration of environmental problems via multiple

disciplines and interests Highlights the idea that “environmental” issues are about much

more than environment Provides a context for development of local expertise that

highlights USM strengths Casco Bay Estuary Partnership

Is charged with bringing good thinking and creative solutions to bear on the environmental challenges facing our region

Has been part of the USM family for 17 years Has working relationships with local and regional environmental

practitioners

How’s Your Estuary Doing?

Presenter

Presentation Notes

At a 2010 meeting of the National Estuaries Program, Bill Eichbaum (WWF, Chesapeake Bay Program, Mass. state government, Md. state government…) asked us “how’s your estuary doing” Tough question. Chesapeake Bay Program has become very public “failure”. Despite more than three decades of work, water quality in the Bay is no better, and many living resources are worse off than at its inception. Despite more than 20 years focus on nutrient pollution, nitrogen and phosphorus loading is still well above targets. The Chesapeake probably gets more political attention, more scientific attention, and more funding than efforts to protect or restore any other estuary in the world. So what’s the problem? �Eichbaum challenged us to think about the problems of coastal waters in a new way. He urged us to focus less on “restoration”, and more on figuring out how to put people on the land in a sustainable way. That requires that we engage productively and actively with communities to identify – and perhaps shape – community aspirations and identify paths to achieve shared visions of the future. We need to speak not (only) in terms of science, but also in terms of behavior, motivation, politics and policy. Not just in terms of regulation, but in terms of values, and thus in terms of history, culture, art and communication. What kind of a community do we want to be? Are we on track to build the landscapes that we wish to inhabit?

People Want to Be on the Coasts

Shore-adjacent Counties 18% land 36% population 38% employment 42% economic output

Housing on Portland’s Waterfront

Source: Kildow, Colgan and Scorse. 2009. State of the U.S. Ocean and Coastal Economies 2009. National Ocean Economics Program. http://www.oceaneconomics.org/NationalReport/

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Revised slide based on: Kildow, Judith T. , Charles S. Colgan and Jason Scorse. 2009. State of the U.S. Ocean and Coastal Economies 2009. National Ocean Economics Program. http://www.oceaneconomics.org/NationalReport/ Employment figure back calculated from other data in report, may be off due to rounding. Census data (http://www.allcountries.org/uscensus/30_population_in_coastal_counties.html) suggests 53% in Coastal Counties which represent 25.1% of land area. That definition of “Coastal” is a bit broader.

Recreation

Transportation

Marine Resources

A Sense of Place

Casco Bay Estuary Partnership

One of 28 “National Estuary Programs”

Hosted by USM’s Muskie School

A 23 member LOCAL advisory board

National Estuary Program Study Areas

Presenter

Presentation Notes

NEPs Have Few Commonalities All NEPs have: Local “Management Committee” Locally developed, watershed-based “Comprehensive Conservation and Management Plan” or “CCMP” All NEPs get: Federal funding In recent years, ~ $600,000 annually (for all but NEPs with separate appropriations) Must match federal funding 1:1 with non-federal funds

CBEP Mission

To support cooperative efforts to protect and restore the health of the Casco Bay ecosystem and watershed, while ensuring compatible human uses through effective stewardship and management

Presenter

Presentation Notes

I find that mission statement to be a bit of a mouthful. Strengthen the community of people and organizations working on behalf of Casco Bay.

Casco Bay

A marine dominated coastal embayment

Tidal water exchange is (usually) much greater than river flow

Conditions in Casco Bay reflect BOTH Large scale marine

processes Activities on land

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Offshore water dominates much of the bay, reducing the impact of terrestrially-derived pollutants to much of te volume of the Bay. Unfortunately, most of us experience the bay primarily in precisely those nearshore environments most likely to show water quality problems.

Casco Bay Watershed

985 Square Miles 42 Municipalities About 200 Square

Miles of Water More than 575 miles

of shoreline 785 islands, islets and

ledges 3% Maine’s land area

~17% of population

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Note: Census is from 2000 census, the 2010 census has not been analyzed by watershed yet.

CBEP Priority Areas

Habitat Stormwater Toxics Clam Flats and Swimming Beaches Stewardship Cross Cutting Issues Science and Monitoring

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Note what is NOT included here Fisheries, land use…. Based on a stakeholder-based identification of priorities Historical links of programs to EPA CWA goals

Our Approach

Casco Bay Estuary Partnership is a catalyst for action

We anchor a community working on behalf of Casco Bay

Focused, collaborative Credible data and

information Strategic direction We build consensus, facilitate

communications and attract funds for protection of the Bay.

Other opportunities and partners

Board members and

long term partners

Staff of CBEP

Our Partners

Governments and government agencies

Citizens and civic organizations

Private sector Academia

Issues on the Horizon

Three Emerging Concerns Climate change, rising

seas, and ocean acidification

Urbanization and suburbanization

Nutrients in near shore waters

Ongoing Concerns Fecal contamination; ~ ¼ of all clam flats

permanently closed Many toxics are declining;

others remain high

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Water quality problems inshore, in enclosed embayments, or due to local pollution sources

Upstream From Casco Bay

Mostly forest ~ 67% Upland Forest ~ 5% Wetland ~11% Developed Only about 6% impervious

surfaces

~230,000 people in the watershed (2000 census)

Population Density ~ 255 people per square mile

A big difference between upper (forested) and lower (suburban) watersheds

That Ain’t So Bad….

Santa Monica Bay Restoration Commission (another NEP) 266-square mile Bay 400-square mile

watershed. 1.9 MILLION population Population Density of 4750

people / sq mile Estimated to reach ~ 2.5

million by2020 Significant portions of the

watershed > 85% impervious

Photo: Marshall Astor, via Flickr.com

Landscapes are Constructed

Source: The Manahatta Project Now the Welikia Project http://welikia.org/

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The geographic spaces we inhabit are quite literally built by human activity. While Mannahatta provides a great urban example, I could just as well shown you a photograph of Scottish heaths, Greek olive orchards or longleaf pine plantations in Georgia. Or the forests of Maine. And what can be constructed, can be reconstructed -- on a timescale of decades to centuries.

Changing New England Forests

Data From: Foster D. 2003. Forest Change and Human Populations in New England. Harvard Forest Data Archive: HF013.

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

1600 1650 1700 1750 1800 1850 1900 1950 2000

Perc

ent o

f For

est A

rea

1600

s

Year

Maine New Hampshire Vermont Massachusetts

Rhode Island Connecticut New England

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Peak deforestation around the time of the civil war. Maine as the Great North …. Sheep pasture. Center of agricultural production shifted west following development of railroads. Rail allowed delivery of foods – especially grains and other readily storable commodities – to the big metropolises of the east. Challenges of agricultural production in the shallow, nutrient poor soils of the Glaciated Northeast. Abandonment of commercial agriculture, slower decline in smaller scale agricultural production. Gradual reforestation until mid 20th century. Note that Maine has historically been, and still is, the most forested state in the Northeast.

Landscapes are Constructed

The meaning of a landscape is not given

Humans build not only landscape, but meaning

Meaning inspires what we do on the land

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Why is it that lobsters have been “local color” for generations, but other waterfront businesses have never made that cut (e.g., salmon pens, wind farms). I don’t want to suggest there are no reasons, but to point out that different commercial activities are imbued with different meaning.

Is this….

The Great North Woods?”

“The Forest Based Economy?”

Just the great north sheep pasture 100 years late?

All three?

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The meaning of landscapes and place is always contested, at least at the margins, but the consequences of the shifting meaning of landscapes can be profound. Suburban America embodies a complex narrative that transforms land into a symbol of American aspirations. Lot size equates with wealth and success, distance from your neighbors is about privacy, and long commutes ensure good schools and lower crime rates. Picnics on the back porch, lawns, quiet weekends... Loving families. Those are some powerful narratives to confront with statistical descriptions of the health of our coastal waters. Like any narrative, this one is as interesting for what it leaves out as for what it includes. Note that land looses any connection with productive activity. Suburbia is not a working landscape. And there is no discussion of the time lost to travel, disintegration of communities, separation of families scattered by the economic forces that make suburban homes out of reach for young people. (An allied narrative that may be more relevant for understanding land use patterns in the Blue Hill area relates to second homes, retirement, vacations, family “cottages”, and the changing nature of summer vacations).

Population in the Casco Bay Watershed

Population has been growing ~ 1% per year

Projections suggest continued moderate increases 1% growth for 20 years

implies about a 22% increase in population

These predictions based on national models, some local projections project slower increases

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060

Popu

latio

n Th

ousa

nds

Year

Estimated and Projected Population Casco Bay Watershed

Estimated Population Predictions U.S. Census

Source: Woods and Poole Economics, Inc., via NOAA's Spatial Trends in Coastal Socioeconomics (STICS)

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Historic and projected growth rates are SIGNIFICANTLY BELOW national trends. Projections do not factor in changes in behavior as climate changes. Not really clear whether future population growth will remain low by national standards. Population growth in the U.S. is fueled mostly by immigration not by high birth rates. Population growth partly reflects economic opportunity, creating a positive feedback. The geographic pattern of population increases may be highly resistant to change.

Land use in coastal watersheds is changing quickly.

1960 2020

Graphic courtesy of SPO, Expansion of Development.

Coastal Development Patterns

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Developed land has been growing significantly faster than population for more than a generation.

Our Impaired Waters are Suburban

A close relationship between impaired streams and watershed imperviousness

Presenter

Presentation Notes

A few streams are impaired because of agriculture or other problems, some due to impoundments (not shown here). You don’t have to be a genius to see the link here. Note there are few impaired streams in the heart of Portland – geography means there were few large streams there and small ones have long since been subsumed into the stormwater management network, so don’t even get considered to be streams any more.

Urbanization And Coastal Waters…

Fore River, Portland Maquoit Bay’s protected shoreline

Photo by Christina Epperson Maine Coast Heritage Trust

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Loss of fringing marshes Destruction of eelgrass beds Elimination of intertidal flats Declining water quality Bacteria close clam flats, swimming beaches Nutrients drive algae blooms, low DO, potential fish kills Roads and development block diadromous fishes Toxic chemicals Pesticides Metals Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons PCPs / Pharmaceuticals Stain repellents, plasticizers, flame retardants…. Blue Hill Bay is not as intensely urbanized as portions of Casco Bay, but we also have significant problems in suburban and second-hole / summer community areas around Casco Bay

Climate Projections for The Casco Bay Region “Climate Change in

Casco Bay Watershed” (2009)

Our Future is likely to include: More hot days Fewer cold days More precipitation More severe rainfall

events More droughts

Historical Climate (Portland Region)

Ice Out Day on Sebago Lake

Days with Snow on the Ground

Average Annual Temperature

Total Annual Precipitation

1800 2008 2008 1890

1965 2005 2008 1890

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Climate has changed significantly over the past 150 years in ways consistent with anthropogenic impacts. historical climate records are a poor guide to the future hydrology design practices based steady-state assumptions are ALREADY wrong many decisions we make TODAY have long term effects Settlement patterns Road networks Culvert design

Central Questions

How do we accommodate 25% more people in the Casco Bay watershed in less than a generation and not cause significant declines in environmental health, marine resources, recreational amenities, and quality of life?

How do we build communities resilient to changing environmental conditions caused by global, regional and local processes?

Presenter

Presentation Notes

While my work is coastal, the issues are far larger that the coast While I think in terms of Casco By, the same issues apply globally I suspect any of you can think of how your academic interests could fit within one of these two questions.

Some CBEP Research and Monitoring Projects Fish passage surveys Presumpscot “Vision,

Values and Priorities” Project

Coastal wetland restoration

Portland COAST project

Sea level rise and coastal wetlands

Clam flat acidification

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Could list many more if we include projects led by our partners with which we are peripherally involved.

Fish Passage Survey

Prioritize restoration to support anadromous fish populations

> 1400 sites surveyed over two years State-wide protocols

Fish passage assessment Flood risk assessment Link to federal and state

agencies and researchers developing GIS-based analytical tools

Presumpscot River

Collaborative effort with land trusts, local municipalities

Development of consensus priorities for land conservation across the lower Presumpscot River watershed

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Community engagement, assessment of alternatives, process facilitation, identification and articulation of values

Tidal Restriction Assessment

Which sites offer the best opportunities for restoration?

List of ~ 120 candidate sites across Casco Bay

Focus on ~20 sites in 2012 to develop and test field and “desktop” protocols

Conclusions There was no “typical” tidal

restriction Field work is expensive and time

consuming, so need to target efforts based on information derived from “desktop” analysis

LIDAR data provides significant insight into restoration potential

2013 focus on restoration implementation, not survey

COAST Project

New England Environmental Finance Center

Funded through a “Climate Ready Estuaries” Grant

Economics of sea level rise in Portland and seacoast New Hampshire

Common themes: Storms are projected to be the

major source of damages in the near term (~ 40 years)

Many adaptation actions cost effective even under low (or no) SLR scenarios (“no regrets”)

Private assets vs. public costs

Estimated real estate losses due to increased sea level (red) and storm surge (blue) in Back Cove, Portland (Year 2100, High SLR scenario, 100-year Storm).

Wetland Migration and Land Use

Aerial Photo Wetland

Changes –3ft SLR

Impervious Cover

Wetlands Close to IC

Sensitivity to Sedimentation Rate

Clam Flat Acidification

Is low pH mud affecting clam reproduction and abundance?

FOCB survey of pH at 30 flats around Casco Bay

Darling Marine Center researchers running sediment analysis

CBEP collecting data on abundance of spat and clams

Mark Green (St. Joseph’s College) measuring aragonite saturation state

Upcoming “Mud Summit”

N Y

7.2

7.4

7.6

7.8

8.0

8.2

Productive? (Anecdotal)

pH

N Y7.

27.

47.

67.

88.

08.

2

Productive? (As Sampled)

pH

Case Study: Long Creek

Long Creek Is located in a suburban,

mostly commercial watershed, with no industrial discharges

Fails to meet applicable water quality standards

Similar watersheds can be found nationwide 30 other “Urban Impaired

Streams” in Maine alone Hundreds of similar

watersheds nationwide

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Long creek is an impaired stream on the ragged coastal edge of the northeastern megalopolis. As such things go, it’s not in terrible shape, but it is symptomatic and emblematic of problems in urban streams throughout the nation. Industrial discharges – for better or worse – are declining in Maine. NPS is the future. We are in desperate need of good ideas and examples of how to address what have to date been largely intractable problems.

Long Creek Watershed

Maine Mall

Portland Jetport

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Grey represents buildings, pale yellow, the roads and parking areas. Home of one of Maine’s most important commercial centers and the state’s largest airport. I suspect that most Mainers have visited the watershed. Total Watershed Acreage = 2240 (3.5 sq miles) Total Impervious Acreage = 739 (33%) Total Miles of Streams ~ 10 miles Map Image courtesy of Kate McDonald and the Long Creek Watershed Management District Four municipalities: 62% So. Portland 21% Westbrook 11% Scarborough 6% Portland Relatively flat, soils largely impermeable – underlain by marine clays Few residents No MePDES permitted point source discharges in the watershed Several industrial stormwater permits Towns with MS4 permit obligations – but much of the watershed is outside the designated urban area

Long Creek Watershed Management District (LCWMD)

A non-profit, quasi-municipal corporation created under the authority of four municipalities expressly to manage stormwater in the watershed

Participation a condition for the General Permit A board appointed by town councils, with representatives

from businesses, towns, non-profits Administered by the Cumberland County Soil and Water

Conservation District

Presenter

Presentation Notes

The Long Creek Watershed Management District was created to provide regulated landowners with an option to be covered under a general permit instead of an individual permit. The District was incorporated in January of 2010. Payments from landowners began arriving as they signed up to participate, with most landowners on board by mid 2010.

Long Creek Opportunities

Several academic papers have been published based in part on Long Creek

USM faculty research leverages LCWMD investment in monitoring to support urban watershed science

The innovative institutional structure raises questions What makes collaborative governance Possible? Successful?

No one is (yet) looking at the effect of the LCWMD on attitudes

How could this novel institutional effort be better linked to the classroom?

CBEP Links to Academic Programs

Undergraduate interns Muskie Student Research

Assistanceships Service Learning Projects

Will Gattis and Josiah Brown An Update of the Economic Impact of

Mya arenaria in Casco Bay

Guest lecturer for numerous classes Support for USM research

Letters of support Technical assistance Locate partners Funding

NSF EPSCOR discussions ???

Muskie student, Caitlin Gerber assisting with collection of data on abundance of clams and relation to sediment pH.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Presumpscot River Watch

NEP Links to Academic Institutions

Close ties with research community at host institution Piscataqua Region Estuary Partnership, NH

Staff with joint academic responsibilities Narragansett Bay Estuary Program, RI

Direct involvement of academic institution and students in environmental monitoring

Morro Bay NEP, CA

Joint research projects, research collaborations, and funding of research

Many examples

Academic participation on Management Committee Almost universal among NEPs

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Most ties are scientific and technical

Three Ideas….

New national science education standards Place-based environmental science is an excellent context for integrating

science into curriculum Potential partner: School of Education, environmental science

Historic aerial photographs Portland Water District has historic aerial photographs from the 1930s

Potential partners: Osher Map Library, GIS Laboratory, History Department, Art programs….

Environmental Monitoring We need monitoring tools that provide better “early warning” of

environmental change. Can metagenomics technologies provide a more nuanced view of marine metabolism than conventional monitoring tools? Potential partners: Chemistry, biology (genetics), environmental science, GIS,

statistics, computer science….

Where to next?

Substantial teaching loads for most USM faculty mean that any program needs to connect with the classroom, not just with research

A place-based focus on environmental topics would make the most of USM’s community connections, allowing faculty to capitalize on local knowledge to leverage high quality research

Casco Bay is a microcosm of issues facing coastal areas nationwide and globally. While work would be local, lessons will be transferrable.

What can the University do?

Facilitate conversations across disciplines Speaker series Faculty training

Look for synergies across disciplines Institutional – level fundraising

Create a group to coordinate – and give it a budget Appoint faculty leaders Provide staff support Support development of innovative teaching ideas

Support development of long-term service learning relationships One-off service learning projects are time intensive for faculty and

partners Long term service relationships (e.g., around monitoring) build a

different kind of engagement with issues and data

What can CBEP do?

Stay engaged with discussions Provide leadership as the USM Community deems

appropriate Make use of our connections to facilitate development of

partnerships for USM faculty Support (lead, where appropriate) external fundraising BUT…..

We are a small staff, with full time jobs to implement the Casco Bay Plan

CBEP annual workplan development process is underway Staff time? Strategic Funding?

The Message:

A place-based environmental focus: Allows exploration of environmental problems via multiple

disciplines and interests Highlights the idea that “environmental” issues are about much

more than environment Provides a context for development of local expertise that

highlights USM strengths Casco Bay Estuary Partnership

Is charged with bringing good thinking and creative solutions to bear on the environmental challenges facing our region

Has been part of the USM family for 17 years Has working relationships with local and regional environmental

practitioners

Curtis Bohlen

Director, Casco Bay Estuary Partnership

[email protected]

cascobayestuary.org

Thank You

For LCWMD information restorelongcreek.org

Photo: C. Bohlen

mailto:[email protected]

Sea Level Rise Projections

0.5 1.2 Change (ft) 1.4 4.4

Somerset Street, Oct 27, 2011 High tide

Present-Day Tidal Inundation

Eat your Broccoli – It’s good for you

Now there’s a failed marketing line…

Coastal protection efforts are too

often about what we ought to do, not about the good things we get by doing them.

We need a long term perspective Changes in behavior take

decades

Focus on the world we are building, not the harms avoided

Presenter

Presentation Notes

In addition, we can’t just tell people that they have to do things. We can’t tell people to “Eat their Broccoli” A truism of marketing practice is that if you want to change people’s behavior, you need to Meet them where they are Let them know how your “product” benefits them City of Portland business community – stormwater financing – want to know that community investments in stormwater infrastructure will help build a better more vibrant city in 2025 and 2050. that’s the right question, but one that is often overlooked by coastal advocates.

NEP Institutional Structures

Type of Institution Number Federal Agency (EPA) 2

State Agency 5

Independent or Quasi-State 5

Local Government 1

University / College 6

Nonprofit 9

Total 28

NEPs Have Few Commonalities

All NEPs have: Local “Management Committee” Locally developed, watershed-based “Comprehensive

Conservation and Management Plan” or “CCMP”

All NEPs get: Federal funding In recent years, ~ $600,000 annually

(for all but NEPs with separate appropriations)

Must match federal funding 1:1 with non-federal funds

Model Changes In Wetland Area

Place in A Mobile Economy

People and businesses are increasingly free to locate almost anywhere

Sense of place becomes a key asset for a community

Presenter

Presentation Notes

I see our work as being o a significant about building the landscape and community of the future

New England Landscape Iconography

Small towns, white churches Stone walls Village greens, elm trees Lobster boats, lighthouses Sugar shacks, maple trees

Built mostly out of the remains of the

agrarian economy of 18th and 19th C. Secondarily out of rural economic

practices of the early 20th C.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

Not shopping malls, suburban cul de sacs or polluted water. Not paper mills, wind farms or interstates. The fundamental building blocks of this New England iconography were functionally obsolete by the time my grandparents were born. Present-day economic realities often do not correspond to the iconography. – Metal lobster traps, salmon pens, large–scale dairy operations, strip malls, big box stores, parking lots.

Iconography of Maine Coast

Working water front – the picturesque kind

Lobster boats Clam flats Picnics Spruce trees (Eric Hopkins) 19th C Hotels Rusticators, summer

“cottages” Artist colonies Saltwater farms, old barns

casco bay at usm...casco bay a marine dominated coastal embayment tidal water exchange is (usually)...

Documents