Cars, Trucks, Planes:What will drive them in the future?

David Lamb

BTRE Transport Colloquium Canberra 13-14 June 2007

• Biggest increase in Australia’s emissions since 1990 is private transport– Increased 29% since 1990

Headlines: (1)

• Public transport in crisis– “Transport congestion choking Melbourne” -- The Age

– “Fuel price drives commuters onto buses and trains” -- SMH

• What do these problems have in common?

Headlines: (2)

Source http://www.tycoflowcontrol.com.au/industries/oil_&_gas__chemical

Government Report :Is the World Running Out of Oil

(2005)

Source: Abare: Australian energy: national & state projections to 2029-30

ABARE Projection to 2030 – (2005)

45%

Energy Trade Deficit

>$5 Bn last year

Katrina:

1836 deaths

$100 billion damage

30 oil platforms

9 oil refineries

Oil consumptionCountry Consumption Consumption

Litres

Barrels/day Per person

Per day

India 2,100,000 0.24

China 6,700,000 0.8

Australia 800,000 6.3

USA 20,000,000 11.3

World 77,000,000 1.8

Contribution to total net CO2e emissions by sector (Kyoto accounting), 2003

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

StationaryEnergy

Transport FugitiveEmissions

IndustrialProcesses

Agriculture Land Use, LandUse Change and

Forestry

Waste

pe

r ce

nt

(%)

Sources of emissions - Australia

Note: USA transport emissions are 28% of total USA emissions. California 58%

14.5%

Greenhouse gas emissions Australian transport

Methane (CH4) and nitrous oxide (N2O) also need to be considered.

GHG must not be confused with Air Quality!Air quality is an issue in urban areas

(particulate carbon, mostly from diesel)

GHG emissions are a national/global issue

Change in emissions profile

Why the increase in GHG for cars?

2NO 2NO2

N2 + O2 N2 + 2O2

N2O

Nitrous oxide (N2O)is 310 times as potentas carbon dioxide

And there’s a second reason!

Engines have improved in fuel efficiency 20% over the past 20years, However this has been offset by growth in vehicle size

Road Vehicles Australia

Transport Fuel Mix

19962

14461

4253

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

25000

Petrol ADO LPG

52%

11%

37%

2003/04

Passenger Vehicle Fuel type

8853925

198615 152912 7840

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

7000000

8000000

9000000

10000000

Petrol Diesel LPG Other

2002

The Technology Progression for

Australia?

30 ye

ars o

r eve

n m

ore!

Oil based transport system

Hydrogen based transport system

Altern

ative

Fue

ls

Hydrogen

Electricity

Methanol ?

Oil from coal ?

Oil from gas ?

Biofuels – ethanol, biodiesel

Natural gas

LPG

But must be ‘clean’

}

Biofuels from current agriculture

Ethanol

If we used all the crops (sugar, molasses, wheat, coarse grain) suitable for making ethanol and converted them to fuel it would only replace 75% of our petrol.(If we stopped exporting grain we could replace 25% of our petrol)

Biodiesel

If we used all the crops (canola, cottonseed and others) suitable for making diesel and converted them to fuel we could replace only 10% of our diesel usage.

Conclusions:

Ethanol could support E10 for most of Australia

Urgent research is needed into next-generation biofuel technologies.

Side effects of biofuels

The Tortilla Protest – Mexico City, February 21 2007

comparison of ethanol vs ULP-

Sustainability - GHG emissions across fuel typesin a typical ‘family sedan’

0

0.05

0.1

0.15

0.2

0.25

0.3

0.35

ULP (E

uro

3 en

gine

)

PULP (E

uro

4 en

gine)

FT Dies

el

LPG P

ropa

neCNG

LNG

ULS D

iese

l

LS D

iesel

LS d

iesoh

ol

Biodies

el (c

anol

a)

Ethan

ol (m

olas

ses)

Ethan

ol (w

oodw

aste

)

Biodies

el (w

aste

oil)kg

car

bon

diox

ide

equi

vale

nts

per

km in

ligh

t ve

hilc

e .

Tailpipe

Upstream

Source: Tim Grant

Room for improvement

13% Motion(aero, braking & rolling)

Braking 6%

Accessory 2%

Engine 62%Rolling 4%

Aero 3%

Idle 17%

Drivetrain 6%

In suburban cycle 87% energy lost versus 13% converted to motion

• Automobiles are becoming increasingly electrified

• There is a strong demand for more energy storage on board the vehicle.

• Much research into high-tech batteries

In partnership with Holden the ECOmmodore, a parallel hybrid vehicle.

With aXcess Australia, a series hybrid vehicle.

60 volt battery pack 150 volt Supercapacitor

CSIRO’s Battery Breakthrough

The UltraBattery

An All-Electric Vehicle

Controller

Electric Motor

240V AC

Charger

Storage Device

EV Performance

0-30 mph: 1.35s0-60 mph: 3.07s in 117 ft0-100 mph: 6.87s0-100-0 mph 11.2s

www.wrightspeed.com

Finally, the Hydrogen Powered Car

Fuel Cell

Hydrogen

Electric motor

The Future?

• Expect more pressure to reduce emissions

• Simplest ways to reduce emissions: - – Reduce travel (particularly in cities)– Reduce vehicle size where possible– Improve traffic flows– improve fuel economy of vehicles

• Expect more pressure to reduce emissions

• Expect more technological improvements in engines.

• Hybrids save fuel (and emissions) – but mostly in the city

(short journeys and stop-start driving)

The easiest ways to reduce emissions are to reduce travel, reduce vehicle size, then reduce congestion.

Could we achieve substantial emission reductions?

1970

Road deaths

3,798

Number of vehicles

3.74 million

Could we achieve substantial emission reductions?

1970 2006 % Change

Road deaths

3,798 1605 -58%

Number of vehicles

3.74 million 13.49 million +260%

Could we achieve substantial emission reductions?

1970 2006 % Change

Road deaths

3,798 1605 -58%

Number of vehicles

3.74 million 13.49 million +260%

Death rate

Per 100,000

101.5 11.9 -89%

89% reduction in 36 years!

– Public awareness of the problem– Government response

• Determined planning• Regulations • Driving• Road management• Vehicle technology

– Technology

And at CSIRO we’re working on it!

How did we do it?

Thank you for your

attention