Emissions due to land use changes in Brazil

Carlos C. Cerri

Contributors: Martial Bernoux

Carlos E. Pellegrino Cerri

Universidadede São Paulo

Brazilian context

Agriculture : 9% of GDP - 19% of the exportations

Soybean and derivates; 1st exported product (10%)Sugar from sugarcane (4%)

UNFCCCSignature: June, 4th 1992 - Ratification 28 February 1994

Kyoto ProtocolSignature 29th april 1998 – Ratification 23 August 2002

• Area: 8,550,000 km2

• Climate: Mostly tropical but temperate in the South

• Population:175 Mi

• GDP per Capita: $3000

• Total Crop land: 6% of total area

Brazil’s Initial National Communication

CO2

Soils ~ 7%

Soils ?

Deforestation ~ 68%biomass burning

In 1994

CH4

Land-Use Change and Forestry 14%

Soils

N2O

Land-Use Change and Forestry 2%

Soils

GHG in Brazil

Global ranking

Global

225580

Brazil

75 9194

Agriculture and land use change

Sources of GHG emissions

Only fossil fuel combustion: 17th

G H G (%)

CO2CH4N2O

Fossil fuel combustion+ 5th

Agriculture and land use change

Fossil fuel combustion

78% 25%

Fossil fuel combustion

ForestsForests RanchingRanching AgricultureAgriculture

Agriculture and land use change

723 293 137

CO2eq emissions in 1994 (Tg or million tones)

CO2

Soils ~ 7%

Soils ?

Deforestation ~ 68%biomass burning

In 1994

Emissions due to Soils in BrazilSoil Map with simplified Legend Soil Map with simplified Legend

6Categories

Brazilian soils: an important C pool

0 900 1800 Kilometers

N

C stocks - kg C m-²1.5 - 22 - 2.52.5 - 33 - 3.53.5 - 44 - 4.54.5 - 55 - 66 - 77 - 1010 - 45

36.4 ± 3.4 Pg C 36.4 ± 3.4 Pg C

1 Pg =1015 g =1 Billions tonnes

0-30 cm

~5% of world soil C stock

CO2 Emissions and removal from soils

Changes in Mineral Soil Carbon StocksChanges in Mineral Soil Carbon Stocks

Changes in Organic Soil Carbon StocksChanges in Organic Soil Carbon Stocks

CO2 Emissions From Liming Agricultural SoilsCO2 Emissions From Liming Agricultural Soils

Category 5D( Common Reporting Format)

Category 5D( Common Reporting Format)

First estimate using IPCC guidelines

Use 1Use 2

Use n

For each Brazilian StateFor each Brazilian State

Land use statistics

XX

X

CO2 Emissions and removal from soils: calculation done at the state level

1 Gg =109 g =1000 tonnes

States/Region 1970-1990 1975-1995Acre 805 789Amapá 2,148 3,876Amazonas 1,173 622Pará 7,653 6,007Rondônia 3,939 3,649Roraima 699 884Tocantins 6,100 2,709North Region 22,517 18,536Alagoas 1,500 593Bahia 9,772 8,694Ceará -240 -722Maranhão 8,040 4,224Paraíba -210 -847Pernambuco 182 -845Piauí 2,076 772Rio Grande do Norte -29 -239Sergipe 342 176Northeast Region 21,433 11,806Distrito Federal 291 239Goiás 7,385 -74Mato Grosso 18,800 20,985Mato Grosso do Sul 4,249 1,379Center Region 30,725 22,530Espírito Santo 1,300 675Minas Gerais 3,282 -1,629Rio de Janeiro -909 -1,806São Paulo 3,076 -877Southeast Region 6,749 -3,637Paraná 6,910 -425Rio Grande do Sul 4,819 -2,303Santa Catarina 106 -110South Region 11,835 -2,838BRAZIL 93,259 46,396

Mean annual fluxes in Gg* of CO2 for the periods 1975-1995

46 396 Gg CO2.year-1

CO2 Emissions and removal from soils: Final results

Use 1Use 2

Use n

For each Brazilian StateFor each Brazilian State

Land use statistics

CO2 Emissions and removal from soils: calculation done at the state level

Main sources of uncertainty

IPCC default factorswere used

Soil emissions46,396 Gg CO2.yr-1

1975-1995

Land UseCategoriesPermanent CultureAnnual CultureResting LandNative PasturePlanted PastureNative ForestPlanted ForestNot usedInapropriate

Native

Final0.4320.4320.4320.90.91111

1

Factor Variation of +0.1 for each Factor ?

Land Use VariationCategoriesPermanent Culture 359Annual Culture -1,898Resting Land -4,817Native Pasture 34,929Planted Pasture -45,228Native Forest -15,680Planted Forest -2,248Not used 10,540Inapropriate -402

Native 24,445

In fluxes

IPCC default factors

+ 0,1 in Planted pasture factor would nearly cancel emissions from soils

Harvest: Burning Harvest: No burning

Conventional tillage No-tillage

Well managedDegraded

Soils can make a difference under best management practices

Recent result concerning Soil C stocks in Brazil

National circumstances have changed since the first estimates calculated for 1994 on

“CO2 Emissions and removal from soils”

An update is urgently needed, because Brazilian soils may now be a net sink!

Emissions due to land use changes in Brazil

Carlos C. Cerri

Contributors: Martial Bernoux

Carlos E. Pellegrino Cerri

Universidadede São Paulo

Thank you for the attention