caribbean the public’s view of trust and democracy in the caribbean professor sir robert worcester...

Caribbean The Public’s View of Trust and Democracy

in the Caribbean

Professor Sir Robert WorcesterFounder, MORI International

& MORI CaribbeanAdvisory Board Member, Latinobarometro

22 November 2005

2

CaribbeanOutline of the Presentation

Background to the research

Trust: the essential ingredient

Democracy in the Caribbean

Conclusions

3





Conclusions

4

CaribbeanA Word about Research

We measure perceptions, not facts

Five things we find with the tools of our trade:

behaviour, knowledge, and…

three levels of ‘views’:

– Opinions

– Attitudes

– Values

5

CaribbeanCaribarometer

• 2001: 6 countries - Antigua - Dominica -Grenada

- St. Kitts - St Lucia - St Vincent & The Grenadines

• Pilot Study, incorporating a number of LB/WVS/other comparative questions

- Happiness - Issues - Economic Optimism, national & personal- Country importance - Environment - Satisfaction with Democracy- Media - Institutions - Satisfaction with Governance

• Extensive work in Trinidad & Tobago 2002 – present- Opinion Leaders Panel - Advertising effectiveness - Political polling- Staff attitude studies - Service delivery - Policy testing- Communications structure and planning - Organisation

6





Conclusions

7

CaribbeanTrust: The Research Questions

• What are the ingredients of trust?

• Can trust, once lost, be regained?

• How do you deal with a crisis in trust in institutions?

• What is the relationship between trust and building democracy?

• How does lack of trust in government impinge upon its freedom to act?

8

Caribbean

• Trust is determined by veracity, service delivery and transparency; in Latin America, trust is constructed by a balance of power and justice, as well as fair treatment

• Trust is built glacially; destroyed precipitously

• Trust can be regained: e.g., Japanese quality of products

• Built up over time, by behaviour and communication aligned to needs

• It’s not ‘going wrong; it’s how you recover from ‘going wrong’

Trust: The research findings

9

Caribbean

83%72%

70%69%

60%56%55%54%

49%47%47%

43%42%41%

35%

Source: MORI

Confidence in Caribbean Institutions

Q. “How much confidence do you have in the …?” (% ‘great deal/ fair amount)

ChurchBanksTVRadioLocal companiesNewspapersAverageJudgesPoliceInternational CompaniesTrade UnionsArmed ForcesPrime MinisterParliamentPolitical Parties

Base: c. 500 adults in six Caribbean countries, FW Spring 2001

10

CaribbeanConfidence in Caribbean Institutions

Country Church Banks TV RadioLocal Cos

News- papers Judges Police

Int'l Cos TU

Armed Forces PM Parl'm't

Political Parties Average

% % % % % % % % % % % % % % %Rank 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

St Vincent 90 75 76 77 50 67 63 57 40 49 49 48 59 57 61%Dominica 82 78 75 78 61 60 52 59 50 45 n/a 47 47 38 59%Grenada 82 86 70 71 61 54 52 54 46 48 57 41 34 25 56%St. Kitts 89 82 64 51 74 42 63 29 63 51 67 34 43 30 56%Antigua 80 67 59 62 55 50 52 51 44 46 54 39 36 32 52%St. Lucia 77 67 73 74 51 59 43 45 42 43 28 43 41 29 51%Average 83 72 70 69 60 56 54 49 47 47 43 42 41 35 55%

1 2 3 4 5 6

Q. “How much confidence do you have in the …?” (% ‘great deal/ fair amount)

Base: c. 500 adults in six Caribbean countries, FW Spring 2001 Source: MORI

11

Caribbean

5%

14%

9%

17%

18%

21%

26%

29%

27%

30%

91%

80%

79%

76%

76%

66%

63%

56%

54%

52%

More trusted professions (1 of 2)– Trinidad & Tobago

% Tell truth

Q Now I will read out a list of different types of people. For each, would you tell me whether you generally trust them to tell the truth or not?

% Not tell truth

Civil servants

Pollsters

The Military

Teachers

Doctors

Religious leaders

Nurses

Professors

Judges

TV newsreaders

Base: 700 T&T residents, 6-22 December 2003

87%

n/a

74%

71%

91%

72%

66%

46%

46%

n/a

GB

Source: MORI

12

Caribbean

34%

41%

42%

51%

44%

55%

56%

51%

68%

73%

52%

45%

45%

37%

36%

35%

32%

31%

22%

18%

Less trusted professions (2 of 2)- Trinidad & Tobago

% Tell truth

Q Now I will read out a list of different types of people. For each, would you tell me whether you generally trust them to tell the truth or not?

% Not tell truth

Ordinary man/woman

Government ministers

Politicians generally

Community leaders

Trade union officials

Young people

Journalists

Local councilors

The Police

Business leaders

Base: 700 T&T residents, 6-22 December 2003

n/a

18%

29%

n/a

33%

64%

28%

53%

20%

18%

GB

Source: MORI

13

Caribbean

59%45%

41%38%

30%26%

19%17%

16%10%10%9%9%9%

7%6%

1%

Positive image of teachers T&T

Slow

Uninterested

Poor service

Efficient

Friendly

Unsatisfactory

Keen to help

Hardworking

Underfunded

Impolite

Open

UnresponsiveCorrupt

Honest

Unaccountable

Good value for money

Inadequate

Base: 700 T&T residents, 6-22 December 2003 Source: MORI

14

CaribbeanTrust in Great Britain – 1983-2005

-24

Q. "...would you tell me if you generally trust them to tell the truth, or not?"

MORI VERACITY INDEX

Tell the truth

’83 ’93 ’97 ’99 ’00 ’01 '02 ’03 04 ’05

Occupations % % % % % % % % % %

Doctors 82 84 86 91 87 89 91 91 92 91

Teachers 79 84 83 89 85 86 85 87 89 88

Professors n/a 70 70 79 76 78 77 74 80 77

Judges 77 68 72 77 77 78 77 72 75 76

Clergyman/Priests 85 80 71 80 78 78 80 71 75 73

Scientists n/a n/a 63 63 63 65 64 65 69 70

Television news readers 63 72 74 74 73 75 71 66 70 63

The Police 61 63 61 61 60 63 59 64 63 58

The ordinary man/woman in the street 57 64 56 60 52 52 54 53 55 56

Pollsters n/a 52 55 49 46 46 47 46 49 50

Civil Servants 25 37 36 47 47 43 45 46 51 44

Trade Union officials 18 32 27 39 38 39 37 33 39 37

Business Leaders 25 32 29 28 28 27 25 28 30 24

Government Ministers 16 11 12 23 21 20 20 20 23 20

Politicians generally 18 14 15 23 20 17 19 18 22 20

Journalists 19 10 15 15 15 18 13 18 20 16

Base: 2,017 British Adults Aged 16+, 17-21 February 2005 Source: BMA/MORI

15

Caribbean

Trust in Scientists? Depends on which…

Q Which, if any, of the following scientists do you most trust to give reliable information about the environment?

50%

31%

9%

6%

1%

3%

… universities

Base: 1,002 Adults, May 2002

None of these

… government

… industry

Don’t know

… environmentalgroups

Scientists working for…

Source: MORI/OST

16

Caribbean

Base: 100-400 elite public in each country, Dec 2003 – Jan 2004

Trust in Institutions

Q How much do you trust each institution to do what is right?

Trust

Source: Edelman

BrazilNGOs

Business

Government 54%

60%

64%

USANGOs

Business

Government 48%

51%

47%

EuropeNGOs

Business

Government 31%

40%

41%

17





Conclusions

18

CaribbeanDemocracy: The research queries

• What are the necessary and sufficient conditions to establish, develop and maintain a sustainable democracy?

• Can any culture carry democratic values? Are there universal values?

• Is democracy an evolving concept?

• What is the relationship between economic development and democracy?

• How much does an economic crisis impact the consolidation of democracy?

19

Caribbean

• Opinion Barometers in Asia, Africa, Latin America and also the Caribbean show that democracy is sustainable.

• There is no evidence yet discovered of any culture that cannot carry democratic values.

• We have found incongruencies between culture and structure in many societies.

• While the formal structure imposes certain authority relations, these do not reach consensus nor legitimacy in society.

• There are incongruencies between real collective behavior and the one

anticipated.

Democracy: The research findings

20

CaribbeanHappiness in the Eastern Caribbean States

Base: c. 500 interviews in each country, Fieldwork February - March 2001

Source: MORI International (www.mori.com)

-24

Q “Overall, how happy would you say that you are with your life at the moment?”

Total%

Antigua %

Dominica%

Grenada%

ST K.%

St Lucia%

St V.%

Very happy 36 36 38 31 51 28 33

Fairly happy 42 39 42 42 37 41 46

Fairly unhappy 4 4 3 3 2 5 5

Very unhappy 4 3 4 4 2 6 6

Net Happy +71 +68 +73 +72 +84 +58 +75

Neither/don’t know 14 18 13 20 8 20 10

21

CaribbeanSatisfaction with Democracy in the Eastern Caribbean States



-24

Q “How satisfied would you say that you are with the way democracy works in <<COUNTRY>>?”

Total%

Antigua %

Dominica%

Grenada%

ST K.%

St Lucia%

St V.%

Very satisfied 12 11 16 10 5 15 18

Fairly satisfied 35 20 46 44 44 29 29

Not verysatisfied

25 20 20 23 28 33 26

Not at allsatisfied

14 17 9 17 8 12 22

Net Satisfied +8 -6 +33 +14 +23 -1 -1

Don’t know 12 31 8 7 13 9 4

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CaribbeanSatisfaction with Governance in the Eastern Caribbean States

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Total Antigua%

Dominica%

Grenada%

ST Kitts%

St Lucia%

St Vincent%

Works extremely well andcould not be improved

Could be improved in smallways but mainly works well

Could be improved quite alot/

Needs a great deal ofimprovement

No opinion

Don’t know

Refused



4% 3%6% 5%1%

5% 5%

27% 20% 33% 29% 30% 22% 25%

27%

20%

28% 28% 36% 30% 23%

30% 26%

30%

30% 20% 32% 43% 29%

31% 27% 31% 34% 36% 26% 30%

57% 49% 66% 62% 56% 58% 54%

Q. “Which of the statements bests best describes your opinion on the present system of governing…?”

-26-26 -23 -36-35-25-24-18

23

Caribbean

R2 = 0.1614

20%

40%

60%

80%

0% 100%

Correlation between ‘happy’ and ‘satisfied’

Happy

Satisfied


St Lucia

Antigua

St Kitts

Dominica

Grenada

St Vincent

Q “How satisfied would you say that you are with the way democracy works in <<COUNTRY>>?”Q “Overall, how happy or unhappy would you say that you are with your life at the moment?”

24

Caribbean

R2 = 0.8862

20%

40%

60%

80%

0% 100%

Correlation between ‘governing’ and ‘satisfied’

Governing ‘works well’

Satisfied


St Lucia

Antigua

St Kitts

Dominica

Grenada

St Vincent

Q “How satisfied would you say that you are with the way democracy works in <<COUNTRY>>?”Q. “Which of the statements bests best describes your opinion on the present system of governing…?”

25





Conclusions

26

Caribbean Conclusions

Trust in institutions in Britain has been measured for more than 20 years, in Latin America for 10, the ‘base-line’ in the Caribbean in 2001; commonly held beliefs about declining trust are myths

Survey data is like a road map; if you know where you want to know, it can tell you the direction you must travel, and the roadblocks on the way

Trust is built slowly, but can quick to decline

Survey data can identify misconceptions (mis-perceptions) and communications can correct these, if there is time and effective dialogue

There are four stages of effective communications: – Awareness– Involvement– Persuasion– Action

27

Caribbean Conclusions

Of the 14 institutions measured in the Caribbean, the church stands out as having the highest proportion who have confidence in it; banks, TV and radio take second place only to the church. Teachers also have a high standing.

Political parties, Parliaments and Prime Ministers are the institutions in which the fewest Caribbean citizens have confidence in.

Only around half the public say they have confidence in the law and those who are responsible for enforcing it: the police and judges.

TV and radio are trusted by a greater proportion of Caribbean citizens that have confidence in their newspapers.

28

CaribbeanThe Keys to Trust

Alignment

Delivery

Honesty

29

CaribbeanHonesty is . . .

Not lying

A balanced view

No monopoly on truth

Human voice

30

CaribbeanMistakes dent rather than destroy

Have built trust: dug the “well of goodwill”

Address the problem openly and effectively

Make reparation when appropriate

Re-stock the well of goodwill

. . . IF YOU

31

CaribbeanA Blueprint for Survival

1. Try to hit the issues before they hit you

2. Create a virtuous cycle of words and actions

3. Exorcise corporate-speak

4. Get staff on board

5. Remember – only you are responsible for building trust and confidence in your institutions, others are mainly trying to destroy it.

Caribbean

Thank you.

[email protected]

33

Caribbean ESTABLISHMENT OF DEMOCRACY

Traditional authoritarian rule is confronted with the new democratic authority demands.

Individuals do not submit to democratic rule if they perceive that the State does not defend the common good.

The necessary transformation is the one that gives evidence to people that the State pursues a common good, in order to legitimately submit their freedom to the rule of law.

34

Caribbean

Democracy is an expectation. Corruption and social mobility are the most powerful explanatory variables in predicting democratic values.

Both involve trust in the system to allow equal oportunities through fair education, and accountability as an instrument of controlling corruption.

Trust is a critical element of the consolidation of democracy. It must be built on the basis of justice and fairness in people’s everyday life experience.

CONCLUSIONS: WHERE ARE WE HEADING?

35

CaribbeanCONCLUSIONS: WHERE ARE WE HEADING?

People become indifferent to the type of regime, distancing themselves from the state and authority altogether, as a way of showing discontent with the system, rather than adopting authoritarian attitudes.

Those who have experienced social immobility through generations stop believing in democracy.

The link between economy and democracy becomes more complex when support for democracy depends, partially, on the capacity of the system to give better possibilities to the following generation.

36

Caribbean

This engenders political apathy. What causes political apathy is longer-term effect of permanent change in status from one generation to the other.

Education, which is not seen regularly as an important factor, plays an crucial role in this process. Education is the most significant variable to produce democratic values. Reduction of structural poverty through education is the most important factor to reduce the gap between expectations of the economic development and democracy.


37

Caribbean

The outcome of winning the battle against corruption is increased support for democracy. It increases confidence in institutions, gives legitimacy to the system, and to the principle of “representation”.

The increase of education levels explains to a large extent contemporary social movements seen in different countries of the region. People defend their rights because they increasingly see themselves as “citizens”.

At the same time however, there is the populist demand of the less well educated which threatens political stability.


38

Caribbean

CULTURE

STRUCTURE

INCONGRUENCIES

AUTHORITY

RULE OF LAW

TRUST

REPRESENTATION

Complex Interrelationships

caribbean the public’s view of trust and democracy in the caribbean professor sir robert worcester...

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