carbon dioxide, chemistry and climate how do we know anything?
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Climate Literacy Conference San Diego 18 Feb 2010. Carbon Dioxide, Chemistry and Climate How do we know anything?. Ken Caldeira Carnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology Stanford, CA [email protected]. How do we know anything?. Thought, intuition, interior reflection - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Carbon Dioxide, Chemistry and Climate
How do we know anything?
Ken CaldeiraCarnegie Institution Dept of Global Ecology
Stanford, [email protected]
Climate Literacy ConferenceSan Diego 18 Feb 2010
How do we know anything?• Thought, intuition, interior reflection
• Unplanned direct experience
• Family, friends, etc
• TV, magazines, books, web sites, blogs, experts, idiots
• Planned empirical investigation
• Careful analysis and appraisal of multiple sources of information
Can we trust our own experience?
by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson
Can we trust our own experience?
by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson
Can we trust our own experience?
by Adrian Pingstone, based on the original created by Edward H. Adelson
How do we know anything?• What food to eat?
• Which things are really dangerous?
• Which investments are safe?
• Whether human-induced climate change is a real threat?
• Which energy technologies or approaches can really diminish climate risk?
Anthropogenic CO2 emissions exceed natural emissions by a factor of about
100
7
8
9
10
1990 2000 2010
CDIACIEAallA1B(Av)A1FI(Av)A1T(Av)A2(Av)B1(Av)B2(Av)Projection
6
5
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
CO2 e
miss
ions
(PgC
y-1)
2005
7
8
9
10
1990 2000 2010
CDIACIEAallA1B(Av)A1FI(Av)A1T(Av)A2(Av)B1(Av)B2(Av)Projection
6
5
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
CO2 e
miss
ions
(PgC
y-1)
2005
2006
7
8
9
10
1990 2000 2010
CDIACIEAallA1B(Av)A1FI(Av)A1T(Av)A2(Av)B1(Av)B2(Av)Projection
6
5
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
Updated Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS
CO2 e
miss
ions
(PgC
y-1)
2005
20062007
2008
Economic Crisis Impact on World GDP Growth
International Energy Agency, October 2009
-1.1%
7
8
9
10
1990 2000 2010
CDIACIEAallA1B(Av)A1FI(Av)A1T(Av)A2(Av)B1(Av)B2(Av)Projection
6
5
Fossil Fuel Emissions: Actual vs. IPCC Scenarios
Raupach et al. 2007, PNAS; updated Raupach unpublished; Le Quéré et al. 2009, Nature-Geo, in press
CO2 e
miss
ions
(PgC
y-1)
2005
20062007
20082009
Projection 2009:Emissions: -2.8%GDP: -1.1% C intensity: -1.7%
atmospheric CO2
ocean
land
fossil fuel emissions
deforestation
7.6
1.5
4.1
2.2
2.8
2000-2006
CO2 f
lux
(Pg
C y-1
)Si
nkSo
urce
Time (y)
Perturbation of Global Carbon Budget (1850-2006)
Le Quéré, unpublished; Canadell et al. 2007, PNAS
Ice core and instrumental records of atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations
Petit et al (1999)
Fig by Robert A. Rohde
Ischia, Italy
Map created by Norman Einstein
CO2 dissolving shells and skeletonsHall-Spencer / BBC
High CO2 = Invasive grasses
Low CO2= Native shellfish
Thanks, Jason Hall-Spencer
Chemistry ofocean acidification
Formation of calcium carbonate shells and
skeletons
CO32-C
O O
OCa Ca2+ (dissolved)
H HO
H2O HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O CO32-
Formation of calcium carbonate shells and
skeletons
CO32-
CO O
O
Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)
H HO
H2O HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O CO32-
Formation of calcium carbonate shells and
skeletons
CO32-
CO O
O
Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)
H HO
H2O HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O CO32-
Formation of calcium carbonate shells and
skeletons
CO O
OCa CaCO3 (solid)
H HO
H2O HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O CO32-
Water, dissolved carbon, and shells and skeletons
CaCO3 (solid)C
O O
OCa
H HO
H2O HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O CO32-
Addition of CO2
CaCO3 (solid)C
O O
OCa
H HO
H2O HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O CO32-
CO O CO2
Formation of carbonic acid
CO O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O CO32-
HHC
O O
O H2CO3
CaCO3 (solid)
Increasing ocean acidity
CO O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O CO32-
HC
O O
O HCO3-
H H+
CaCO3 (solid)
Increasing ocean acidity
CO O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O CO32-
HC
O O
O HCO3-
H H+
CaCO3 (solid)
Increasing ocean acidity
CO O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O CO32-
HC
O O
O HCO3-
H H+
CaCO3 (solid)
Increasing ocean acidity
CaCO3 (solid)C
O O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O CO32-
HC
O O
O HCO3-
H H+
Attacking a building block for shells and skeletons
CO O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O CO32-
HC
O O
O HCO3-
H H+
CaCO3 (solid)
H
Attacking a building block for shells and skeletons
CO O
OCa
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O HCO3-
HC
O O
O HCO3-
CaCO3 (solid)
H
Dissolving shells and skeletons
CO32-
CO O
O
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O HCO3-
HC
O O
O HCO3-
Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)
H
Dissolving shells and skeletons
CO32-
CO O
O
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O HCO3-
HC
O O
O HCO3-
Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)
H
Dissolving shells and skeletons
CO32-C
O O
O
HC
O O
OHCO3
-C
O O
O HCO3-
HC
O O
O HCO3-
Ca Ca2+ (dissolved)
Lizard Island
ExpeditionSeptember
2008
We measured of coral skeletal growth rates 40% lower than in the late 1970’s
Distribution of corals andocean acidification
0 1 2 3 4 5
Corrosive OptimalΩAragonite
Carbon dioxide level,
Coral reef distribution
,
and chemical
conditions helping
drive reef formation
Cao and Caldeira, 2008
0 1 2 3 4 5
Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008
Carbon dioxide level,
Coral reef distribution
,
and chemical
conditions helping
drive reef formation
0 1 2 3 4 5
Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008
Carbon dioxide level,
Coral reef distribution
,
and chemical
conditions helping
drive reef formation
0 1 2 3 4 5
Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008
Carbon dioxide level,
Coral reef distribution
,
and chemical
conditions helping
drive reef formation
0 1 2 3 4 5
Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008
Carbon dioxide level,
Coral reef distribution
,
and chemical
conditions helping
drive reef formation
0 1 2 3 4 5
Corrosive OptimalΩAragoniteCao and Caldeira, 2008
Carbon dioxide level,
Coral reef distribution
,
and chemical
conditions helping
drive reef formation
Courtesy Lonnie Thompson
Courtesy Lonnie Thompson
Courtesy Lonnie Thompson
Courtesy Lonnie Thompson
Courtesy Lonnie Thompson
Qori Kalis, Peru 1978
Courtesy Lonnie Thompson
Qori Kalis, Peru 2002
Courtesy Lonnie Thompson
1900 2000
1900 2000
Whitechuck GlacierWA, USA
1973
Mauri Pelto 2006
PELTOMS
Anecdotes&
Statistics
Dyurgerov (2002), Dyurgerov and Meier (2005) fig by Rhode
Dyurgerov and Meier (2005) fig by Rhode
What if things aren’t simple?
The case of forests
With deforestation, CO2 is much higher but temperatures are slightly cooler
A2
Atmospheric CO2 TemperatureAdditional contribution from loss of CO2-fertilization of forests
Effect of loss of carbon from forests
Global deforestation experiment: net temperature change (CO2 +
biophysical)
A2
Temperature change predicted in latitude-band deforestation simulations
Boreal
Temperate
Tropical
Predicted role of forestsTropical forests cool the planetTemperate (mid-latitude) forests do littleBoreal forests warm the planet
Desire for
improvedwell-being Demand
for goods and
services
Demand for
energy
Impacts on
humans and
Climate change &
ocean
CO2 emission
sCO2 in
ecosystems
acidification
atmosphere
Conservation
Efficiency
Low-carbonenergy
Forests, etc.
Adaptation
Climateintervention
Inglehart and Klingemann 2000.
usa
People in Philippines and Brazilare just as happy as West Germans, Canadians, Japanese, and Frenchbut use 1/10th the energy
Happiness and GDP
Myers, 2004
American income (and energy use) increases,but we do not become happier
How do we know anything?• Thought, intuition, interior reflection
• Unplanned direct experience
• Family, friends, etc
• TV, magazines, books, web sites, blogs, experts, idiots
• Planned empirical investigation
• Careful analysis and appraisal of multiple sources of information