National Consultation

Capturing Opportunities and Managing Challenges: Cooperating in the Kabul River Basin for Afghanistan-Pakistan Water Relations

Event Report

Partnerships for Enhanced Engagement in Research – Cycle 4

Event Overview The Kabul River Basin is an invaluable asset for both Afghanistan and Pakistan yet both countries have not been able to tap its full potential. Unfortunately, the changing climate threatens the flow regime and the fragile ecosystem of the basin. This is a source of trepidation for both nations as it is estimated that over 9 million people rely on the Kabul River Basin (KRB). Moreover, the Kabul River contributes 12 MAF of water into the Indus River Basin which further reflects its socioeconomic significance particularly for Pakistan.

To promote benefit sharing of the Kabul River Basin, LEAD organized a national consultation on 26th February 2019 titled ‘Capturing Opportunities and Managing Challenges: Cooperating in the Kabul River Basin for Afghanistan-Pakistan Water Relations’. The event aimed to summarize the key findings of LEAD’s project called ‘Understanding our Joint Water-Climate Change Challenge & Exploring Policy Options for Cooperation on the Afghan-Pak Transboundary Kabul River Basin’ – PEER, Cycle 4. It also aimed to receive cross sectorial perspectives for strengthening water diplomacy, and to forge a way forward to enhancing water security and promoting regional integration.

To ensure focused discussions, the national consultation comprised of two sessions:

a) Managing Shared River Basins – Synthesizing Learnings and Way Forward b) Understanding the Water-Climate Change Challenge and Policy Options on the Afghan-Pak

Transboundary Kabul River

Each session started off with presentations from subject-matter specialists and was followed by a panel discussion in which experts from academia, government, private sector, media and civil society organizations participated.

Session 1: Managing Shared River Basins – Synthesizing Learnings and Way Forward Unfortunately, transboundary water

management for the Kabul River has been

neglected since decades. Despite the tangible

impacts of climate change on both Pakistan and

Afghanistan, the two countries are yet to devise

an integrated basin wide approach to ensure

sustainable water resource management.

Recognizing this complex yet crucial issue, LEAD

Pakistan started the discourse on transboundary

water by including it as a core element in its

water program. Through conducting various

discussions under the rubric of Leading

Perspectives Talk Series on Managing Shared River Basins, LEAD brought forth global best practices on

governing shared water resources. The participants at each talk represented a diverse set of organizations,

therefore global examples such the Columbia Water Treaty and Turkey-Armenia Water Agreement were

assessed through a multidisciplinary lens.

The concept of the Talk Series and the key findings of the 34 talks conducted so far were presented to the

wider audience. Touching upon a diverse set of themes, the talk have enhanced the general understanding

around subjects such as:

Sustainable Cities: Urban Waterscapes, Landscapes, & Climate Resilience

Climate Change and Pakistan’s Water Challenge

Trans Boundary Water Resource Governance

Water Scarcity and Quality

Groundwater Governance

The Role of the Private Sector in Water Resource Development and Conservation

Non-Agricultural Water Use and Implications for Pakistan’s Water Future

During the panel discussions, the keynote speakers unanimously agreed upon the need to obtain non-

contested water data through upgrading existing monitoring programs and devising a bilateral verification

system. Currently, the institutions in both Afghanistan and Pakistan are working in isolation which limits

the inclusivity and impact of their work. It is crucial for these institutions to consolidate and exchange data

to work collectively towards their mutual goal. In addition to climate change, they recognized the

increasing pollution levels and overall pressure on the Kabul River Basin due to the swelling water

demands. The Kabul River is the largest sediment carrying river therefore unchecked pollution levels are

adversely affecting the ecosystem. However, prior to addressing these concerns, it is imperative to build

trust to promote cooperation and joint management.

Session 2: Understanding the Water-Climate Change Challenge and Policy Options on the

Afghan-Pak Transboundary Kabul River Building upon the outcomes of the Bilateral Talk Series on Managing Shared River Basins, Ms. Hina Lotia,

Director Programmes at LEAD Pakistan, diligently explained the grander objectives of the project which

were to: a) conduct leading edge scientific research on the impacts of climate change on Kabul River Basin

and b) develop an Integrated Basin Wide Approach for benefit sharing of the KRB. She shared the

methodology adopted throughout the duration of the project, explaining how the policy

recommendations stemming from the project are backed by scientific evidence. Under this project, two

major research findings have been published which utilize advanced modelling tools to study the impacts

of climate change on glacial melt, water availability and mean annual temperatures on the basin.

Similarly, while recalling the key findings of the stakeholders’ consultation meetings held in Almaty (2018)

and Dubai (2019) respectively, Ms. Hina added the importance of engaging more stakeholders in the

discourse on transboundary water management. Under this project, policy dialogues in both Pakistan and

Afghanistan have been organized where the challenges and opportunities of adopting a benefit sharing

approach were deliberated upon. Moreover, in light of the latest IPCC Special Report on Global Warming

of 1.5 degrees Celsius, LEAD held a national consultation in Pakistan where key government officials,

development sector representatives and academicians discussed the findings of the report in context of

Afghanistan and Pakistan. She concluded by sharing the policy briefs that had been prepared against the

two research studies and opening the floor to questions and suggestions.

Owing to the limited scientific research on the climate vulnerability of the Kabul River Basin – particularly

in Pakistan – LEAD in collaboration with the Global Change Impact Studies Centre (GCISC) conducted a

research titled ‘Impact of the 21st Century Climate Change on Surface Water Availability of the

Transboundary Kabul River Basin’. Dr. Zia Hashmi, Head of Water Resources and Glaciology Section at

GCISC, presented the research – highlighting the increased sensitivity of transboundary water basins vis-

à-vis climate change. The findings underlined the necessity to cater for transboundary threats through

policy interventions as excluding this ecosystem would inevitably result in greater disputes – possibly

harming regional harmony.

Utilizing the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), the research forecasted the changes in daily stream flows and the quantitative relationship between temperature and stream flows under two climate scenarios i.e. RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. This was the first ever climate change analysis study that took into account the entire transboundary Kabul Basin spread across the two countries. Dr. Hashmi explained the research

methodology in great detail – highlighting the key challenges and limitations. The findings of the research, as follow, are alarming in the sense that they hint towards increased flash floods in the region:

i. Increased temperatures for all elevational bands that receive snowfall in both climate scenarios ii. Increased winter precipitation for middle elevation bands1

iii. High variations in temperature and precipitation patterns will result in

Overall increase in the flow volume

Earlier and sharper flow peaks

More frequent high flow events (flash floods) Despite the rapid onset events in the region such as floods, there is still a small window of opportunity to take action, establish a joint watershed management system and enhance preparedness of the vulnerable communities. More specifically, he recommended to expand the hydrological and climatological networks in the region to improve data collection and install greater early warning systems. He further stressed on improving the trust and coordination between the national and transboundary weather and flood forecasting agencies. In light of the scientific evidence, Dr. Hassan Abbas presented effective policy options for the management of the Kabul River Basin. As a key participant in the regional consultations, he shared the recommendations of both Afghan and Pakistani stakeholders stating that the focus needs to shift from water sharing to benefit sharing. He further added that the integrity of the basin must be maintained at all times and that the policy decisions should derive solely from knowledge pertinent to climate, economics, hydrology, systems connectivity and anthropology. The Central Asian countries have been successfully managing their water resources; therefore, Afghanistan and Pakistan should adopt a similar working model to manage the Kabul River Basin. Underlining the high cost of non-cooperation, particularly impacting trade, he suggested how this could potentially collapse the economy of Pakistan. Therefore, transboundary water management should be recognized as a key priority area by the government. The issue of data sharing should not viewed as insurmountable, rather should be resolved by using satellite datasets. It is high time to react either through structured interventions or adaptation measures for studies indicate that the peak flows are shifting and the mean annual flows are decreasing. Each proposed project in the vicinity of the Kabul River Basin should be assessed against certain parameters which should particularly take into account its socioecological impacts.

1 Middle elevational bands refer to 2,336 – 3,669 meters

Apart from meeting the growing water demands of the communities, the Kabul River Basin can be optimally used for expanding agricultural fields and practices, generating hydropower and promoting inland navigation (as previously used in the Colonial times). By creating synergies between the two countries, the socioeconomic benefits of the KRB can be equally shared without any disharmony. For instance, upstream and downstream users can mutually agree upon sustainable agricultural practices and hydropower generation to boost their economic activities while ensuring environmental justice. Inland navigation is of particular relevance to Afghanistan as the country is landlocked and is connected to the Arabian Sea via the Kabul River flowing through Pakistan. The costs of trucking goods from Karachi to Jalalabad are as high as US $4000 to 5000, if developed properly, the inland navigation can reduce these costs to US $400. Hence Afghanistan can serve as an inland port for the Central Asian countries. In addition to limited data, there is limited capacity to utilize the available data – a lacuna that must be addressed by capacity building of the decision makers. In order to streamline the operations on the Kabul River, a specific commission should be established which will be responsible. Likewise, interdisciplinary research focusing on the socioeconomic aspects of the basin should be initiated. He concluded his session by lauding LEAD for opening up this discourse and achieving significant milestones despite the political tensions and unwillingness.

Conclusion The national consultation on “Capturing Opportunities and Managing Challenges: Cooperating in the

Kabul River Basin for Afghanistan-Pakistan Water Relations” meticulously summarized the objectives and

outcomes of LEAD’s initiative on transboundary water management of the Kabul River Basin. It further

highlighted the need to establish a joint knowledge bank and commission to effectively manage the water

resources whilst protecting the integrity and biodiversity of the region. The changing climate continues to

threaten the Kabul River Basin therefore the window of opportunity is shrinking fast; however, with a

proactive approach both countries can put their political tensions aside and develop an integrated basin

wide approach to mutually share the benefits of this invaluable resource.