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    Capital Adequacy

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    Basel II AccordsProposed 2004, Implemented Soon

    Three Pillars

    1. Minimum capital requirements,

    New methodology for calculating requiredcapital for credit risk.

    Charges for operational risk

    2. Supervisory review - regulators use more

    comprehensive tools for assessing risk.3. Market discipline banks expected to

    increase reporting to financial markets.

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    Basel Accords

    Under the Auspices of the Bank for InternationalSettlements, the Basle Committee (whichconsists of the G-10 countries central bankgovernors), have agreed upon a scheme of

    regulation which will be applied to internationalbanks. (What is the BIS?)

    The key element of this scheme is a set ofrequirements relating a minimum amount of

    bank capital relative to a risk based measure ofassets.

    Why capital?

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    Capital: Tension between profitsand risk

    The equity multiplier magnifies the effect ofprofits on returns which gives bank owners anincentive to increase leverage.

    Bank capital absorbs losses before depositors orcreditors absorb losses. So bank depositors andcreditors prefer capital.

    Risky banks may pay higher interest rates so

    banks may internalize depositors preferencesBut regulators have adopted a preferencetoward capital requirements institutionalized byBasel.

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    Capital and Moral Hazard Consider a bank with 0 capital, full financed with deposits of $100

    (which for convenience pay 0 interest rate).

    Bank managers face two loan projects with differing payoff profiles. Which will the bank choose? Which is socially optimal?

    Prob. ofGoodOutcome

    Prob. ofBadOutcome

    Interest Recovery%

    Project A(Risky)

    .5 .5 .2 0

    Project B

    (Safe)

    1 0 .05 N/A

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    Expected Payoffs to depositors andbankers

    The safe project creates value in excess ofcustomers demand for funds. The expectedvalue of the risky project is just $60, less than

    what was put in the project.Assume that in the event of bankruptcy, depositors

    claim all remaining assets.

    The depositors have an expected payoff of 100under the safe scheme and only 50 under therisky lending scheme. They prefer safety.

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    Bankers payoffs

    Under the safe scheme, the bankers willget a payoff of 5. Under the risky schemethe bankers will get an expected payoff of

    10. They will prefer the destructive, riskyscheme. Why?

    Bankers get upside pay-off of risky

    scheme but put downsize risk ondepositors.

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    Well capitalized banks?

    Compare with bank finance by 80% depositsand 20% equity.

    Under safe scheme, bank gets an expected

    payoff of 25 for a 25% ROE. Under risky scheme, the bank owners receives

    40 back in a good outcome and 0 back in a badoutcome for an expected payoff of 20.

    Bank owners share the downside risk and avoidthe risky scheme.

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    Measures of Capital Risk

    Chief measures are Tier 1 leverageratio and CAR (capital adequacy) ratio.

    (Tier 1+ Tier 2)/RAA Tier 1/RAA Tier 1/aTA

    Well Capitalized > 10% > 6% > 5%

    Adequately Capitalized 8-10% 4-6% 4-5%Undercapitalized 6-8% 3%-4% 3%-4%

    Significantly Undercapitalized

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    Recent rise in US capital ratios aswell

    FDIC Historical Banking StatisticsCapita/Asset Ratio

    0.00%

    2.00%

    4.00%

    6.00%

    8.00%

    10.00%

    12.00%

    14.00%

    1934

    1938

    1942

    1946

    1950

    1954

    1958

    1962

    1966

    1970

    1974

    1978

    1982

    1986

    1990

    1994

    1998

    2002

    http://www2.fdic.gov/hsob/SelectRpt.asp?EntryTyp=10

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    Rising Capitalization Ratios inHong Kong

    Source: CEIC/HKMA

    Capital/Asset Ratio

    0.00%

    2.00%

    4.00%

    6.00%

    8.00%

    10.00%

    12.00%

    14.00%

    Jan-91

    Jan-92

    Jan-93

    Jan-94

    Jan-95

    Jan-96

    Jan-97

    Jan-98

    Jan-99

    Jan-00

    Jan-01

    Jan-02

    Jan-03

    Jan-04

    Jan-05

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    Capital Adequacy Ratio

    Main regulatory requirement of HK banks isthe CAR: Capital Adequacy Ratio.

    CAR is

    Since 1987, the Basel Accords imposed in

    HK and CAR > .08. What is regulatory capital? How do you

    adjust for risk?

    Regulatory CapitalRisk Adjusted Assets

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    Historical Capital Adequacy for HKSource:

    Sep-1997 Sep-1999 Sep-2001 Sep-2003 Sep-2005

    20.5

    20.0

    19.5

    19.0

    18.5

    18.0

    17.5

    17.0

    16.5

    16.0

    15.5

    15.0

    HK: Capital Adequacy Ratio

    %

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    Types of Capital

    Tier 1 capital is thought to be more stable andmore aligned with the concept of capital as thefunds that owners have invested in the banks

    (i.e. equity capital, perpetual preferred stock andretained earnings)

    Tier 2 capital are funds that protect depositorsbut may be withdrawn (subordinated debt) or is

    already somewhat committed to other purposes(reserves).

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    Measuring Capital

    For regulatory purposes, capital is dividedinto two tiers.

    Tier 11. Common Stock at Par + Surplus2. Undivided Profits/Retained Earnings3. Minority Interests

    Tier 21. Subordinated Debt2. General Loan Reserves (LLA)3. Other Reserves (similar to undivided profits)

    MinusIntangible

    Assets, Goodwill

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    Risk Adjusted Assets

    Loans & securities are placed in a number ofbuckets Aj

    On with associated risk weights based on

    the identity of the borrower

    Off-balance sheet items are converted to creditequivalents with credit conversion factor, ccfk, based

    on type of item.

    AjOff = ccf1 Aj,1

    Off + ..

    Aj = AjOn + Aj

    Off

    Risk Adjusted Assets: w1A1 + w2A2 + w4A4

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    Risk adjustment ofassets:

    Standardized Approach

    Different assets aredifferentiated into bucketswhich have different riskweights.

    Risk Bucket Loans Risk Weights

    1. Domestic Central Govt. 0%

    2. Public Entities, ForeignGovernments (OECD),

    Banking.

    20%

    3. Secured Residential Lending. 50%

    4. Commercial and consumer loans 100%

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    Timeline

    Basel Accords signed in 1987 imposed risk-based capital requirements

    Basel Market Risk Amendment in 1996.

    Impose market risk requirement

    Problems with Basel I

    Risk weights too broad

    Does not account for new risk managementtechniques.

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    Standardized ApproachBasel II

    Meant for smaller, less sophisticated banks. New risk weights (0%; 20%; 50%; 100%, 150%)

    used for assessing capital required based on creditrating and type of assets.

    Uses External Ratings (where available)

    Unrated (most SMEs) weighted at 100%

    35% weight for claims secured by ResidentialMortgage

    100% weight for claims secured by CommercialMortgage

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    Set of risk weights(ranging from 0 to150%) for differenttypes of assets with

    different credit ratingsclaims on

    Sovereign

    Public Entities

    MDB

    Banks

    Securities Firms

    Corporate

    Residential Lending

    Cash

    Regulatory Retail

    Other Assets Past Due

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    Credit Conversion FactorsOff Balanced Sheet

    Type ccf

    1. Standby LOC, Guarantees,Securitization w/ Recourse

    100%

    2. LT Loan Commitments 50%

    3. Commercial LOC 20%

    4. Finanical Derivatives (dependson type & maturity) 0-15%

    5. ST Loan Commitments 0%

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    Market Risk

    Banks with significant trading activity(trading assets+liabilities > 10% of totalassets) must have additional capital

    beyond 8% of credit risk adjusted assets.

    Banks should calculate VAR of foreignexchange and securities positions and

    allocate some capital equal to 8% of VAR.

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    IRB Approach

    Internal Ratings Based: Foundation ApproachBanks examine lending and associated assets and calculate probability of default

    for loans. Regulators provide formulas for associated capital requirement.

    Only banks that can demonstrate

    competence can use IRB approac

    Internal Ratings Based: Advanced ApproachBank constructs own (supervisor approved) formulas tocalculate.

    PD: probability of default,EAD: exposure of bank to defaultLAD: Loss at defaultM: remaining maturity

    and uses these to determine required capital.

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    Operations Risk

    Loss of funds through operatingcircumstances may be a source of risk forbanks.

    Standardized Approach: Allocate capital toequal 15% of 3year lagged moving average ofrevenues.

    Subject to regulatory approval, most

    sophisticated banks may design their ownsystems for operations risk.

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    How much capital?

    Depends on risk appetite of the bank,regulatory requirements, maintaining agood debt rating, limits of internal growth,

    relative cost of debt and equity financing.

    Use statistical ratios to describe the riskappetite of banks.

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    Capital and Growth

    Capital adequacy limitations can act asbrake on bank growth.

    Consider a bank that can achieve 10%

    growth on the asset side of its balancesheets and also can borrow freely toachieve that growth.

    An adequately capitalized bank mustachieve 10% capital growth or fall belowthe adequacy standard.

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    Achieving Capital Growth

    Reduce dividend payout ratios

    Earn higher ROA to increase cash flow (mayincrease risk)

    Change mix of assets to those with smallercapital charges

    Move assets off balance sheet

    Issue more stock/subordinated debt.

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    Internal Growth Rate

    The change in the capital of the bank thatcan be obtained from internal sources is:

    Retained Earnings Retained Earnings Net Income

    Equity Capital Net Income Equity Capital =

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    Modern Capital Management

    Instead of evaluating how much capital the bankneeds, modern banks will evaluate lines ofbusiness and how much capital should be

    allocated for the assets needed to generateincome in that line.

    Different businesses require different quantitiesof capital. Capital is more expensive than debt,

    so business requiring heavy capitalization mustearn higher returns.

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    Basel II Accords

    In what ways have recent eventschallenged the Basel Accords?

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    Reading List

    Bank for International Settlements BaselII OverviewInternational Convergence of Capital Standar

    KPMG Canada, 2006, -Basel II: A Worldwide Challenge for the Banki

    http://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs128a.pdfhttp://www.kpmg.ca/en/industries/fs/banking/documents/BaselII.pdfhttp://www.kpmg.ca/en/industries/fs/banking/documents/BaselII.pdfhttp://www.bis.org/publ/bcbs128a.pdf