cape town accommodation performance review & forecast …€¦ · accommodation type and...

CAPE TOWN ACCOMMODATION Performance Review

& Forecast ReportDecember 2018

www.capetown.travel +27 (0)861 322 223 [email protected]

Report compiled in cooperation with Cape Town Tourism members

Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review & Forecast Report December 2018

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INSIDE THIS ISSUE:

Summary of Results 2 Actual Performance by Accommodation Type 3 Actual Performance by Geographic Location 6 Anticipated Performance by Accommodation Type 9 Anticipated Performance by Geographic Location 10 Explanation of Terms 11 Survey Methodology 12 Contact Details 13

We are pleased to present the Cape Town Accommodation Performance Review Report in respect of the month of December 2018 and Forecast Report for the coming two month period of January 2019 and February 2019. The Report aims to reflect the performance of the accommodation sector within the Cape Town metropole on a monthly basis. For the purposes of this analysis, Cape Town Tourism’s accommodation members were asked to share actual performance at their respective accommodation establishments in respect of the month of December 2018 as well as forecast their respective accommodation establishment’s performance in terms of likely market demand in the coming two month period. In total 99 accommodation members participated in the analysis representing some 77 872 available room nights in respect of the period under review. This Report summarizes the outcome of the Survey. The results are segmented by accommodation type and geographic location, which should provide for interesting benchmarking opportunities. Of the 99 participants, approximately 20 percent represented member establishments located in the City Centre. Participants representing member establishments situated along the Atlantic Seaboard and in the Southern Peninsula accounted for a further approx. 18 percent and 15 percent respectively followed by feedback received from members situated in the Northern Suburbs (approx. 12 percent); along the Blaauwberg Coast and in the Helderberg (approx. 11 percent respectively); and Southern Suburbs (approx. 10 percent); whereas feedback received from representatives of member establishments situated on the Cape Flats represented approx. 2 percent of responses received respectively. Approx. 1 percent of the responses received had to be discarded. The majority of participants represented guesthouses (approx. 38 percent) followed by hotels (approx. 20 percent); self catering establishments (approx. 19 percent); bed & breakfast establishments (approx. 16 percent); backpacker establishments (approx. 5 percent); and lodges (approx. 1 percent) of the responses received. We would like to thank all the Cape Town Tourism accommodation members who participated and look forward to their continued support. We welcome any comments and suggestions that will make the Report more relevant and helpful to the Cape Town accommodation sector. Sincerely, Michelè de Witt I Director, Horwath HTL (South Africa)

SHARE OF PARTICIPANTS: Accommodation Type Geographic Location

Backpacker B&BGuesthouse HotelSelf Catering

City Centre Atlantic SeaboardBlaauwberg Coast HelderbergSouthern Peninsula Southern SuburbsNorthern Suburbs


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SUMMARY OF RESULTS: Cape Town’s accommodation market registered positive growth across two of the three performance indicators

in respect of December 2018 when compared to the same month in 2017. Demand for accommodation declined marginally by approximately -0.3 percent whereas average room rate and resultant RevPAR both registered

positive growth of some 5.3 percent and some 4.9 percent respectively when compared to performance registered in these two indicators in December 2017.

Actual performance registered in respect of occupancy and RevPAR in December 2018 underperformed expectations registered the prior month; actual demand by approx. – 6.7 percent and RevPAR by approx. – 0.9

percent. Actual average room rate recorded in respect of December 2018 exceeded expectations by approx. + 8.6 percent.

The aggregate performance reported in each of the three indicators in respect of December 2018 is detailed below:

Occupancy: 69.1 percent compared to 69.4 percent last year ~ - 0.3 percentage points;

Average room rate: R2 272 compared to R2 158 last year ~ + 5.3 percent; and

Revenue per available room: R1 571 compared to R1 498 last year ~ + 4.9 percent. On aggregate, feedback received indicates approximately 52.4 percent of room nights sold in December 2018 were sold to international source markets whereas approximately 40.7 percent of room nights were sold to the

domestic source market. Regional source markets contributed approximately 6.9 percent of total room nights sold in December 2018.

Anticipated performance for the coming two months:

January 2019:

Occupancy: 70.6 percent compared to 68.5 percent forecast last month;

Average room rate: R2 277 compared to R2 415 forecast last month; and

Revenue per available room: R1 607 compared to R1 654 forecast last month. February 2019:

Occupancy: 75.4 percent;

Average room rate: R2 348; and

Revenue per available room: R1 771.

SUMMARY OF RESULTS: Occupancy Average Room Rate (ARR)

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

Dec-18 Dec-17 Jan-19 Feb-19R 0

R 500

R 1 000

R 1 500

R 2 000

R 2 500

Dec-18 Dec-17 Jan-19 Feb-19


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ACTUAL PERFORMANCE BY ACCOMMODATION TYPE:

Occupancy: December Percentage Point Change 2018 2017

Overall Average 69.1% 69.4% - 0.3%

Backpacker 77.2% 77.1% + 0.1%

Bed & Breakfast 76.4% 72.9% + 3.5%

Guesthouse 63.6% 67.9% - 4.4%

Hotel 69.6% 69.1% + 0.4%

Lodge * * *

Self Catering 72.6% 71.5% + 1.1%

Average Room Rate: December Percentage Point Change 2018 2017

Overall Average R2 272 R2 158 + 5.3%

Backpacker R505 R451 + 11.9%

Bed & Breakfast R1 063 R908 + 17.1%

Guesthouse R2 232 R2 121 + 5.2%

Hotel R2 340 R2 319 + 0.9%

Lodge * * *

Self Catering R3 282 R2 621 + 25.2%

ACTUAL PERFORMANCE BY ACCOMMODATION TYPE: Occupancy Average Room Rate

* Where data received was insufficient to allow for reasonable comparison, it was omitted

0%

20%

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100%

Bac

kpac

ker

B&

B

Gue

stho

use

Hot

el

Sel

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ater

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Dec-18

Dec-17

R 0

R 500

R 1 000

R 1 500

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R 3 000

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Bac

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B&

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Hot

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Dec-18

Dec-17


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RevPAR: December Percentage Point Change 2018 2017


Backpacker R389 R347 + 12.1%

Bed & Breakfast R812 R662 + 22.7%

Guesthouse R1 419 R1 441 - 1.6%

Hotel R1 628 R1 603 + 1.5%

Lodge * * *

Self Catering R2 383 R1 874 + 27.2%

Source Market Analysis: December 2018

Domestic Regional/ Africa International

Overall Average 40.7% 6.9% 52.4%

Backpacker 24.4% 6.5% 69.0%

Bed & Breakfast 66.8% 3.9% 29.3%

Guesthouse 41.3% 1.7% 57.0%

Hotel 35.1% 9.8% 55.1%

Lodge * * *

Self Catering 56.5% 0.0% 43.5%

Average Number of Guests per Room Night Sold: December 2018


Overall Average 1.7 1.8 2.0

Backpacker 1.5 1.7 1.8

Bed & Breakfast 1.8 2.0 2.0

Guesthouse 1.7 1.8 1.9

Hotel 1.8 1.8 2.0

Lodge * * *

Self Catering 1.8 0.0 2.0



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12-Month Performance Review

BACKPACKER

HOTEL

BED & BREAKFAST

SELF CATERING

GUESTHOUSE

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

R 0R 75

R 150R 225R 300R 375R 450R 525R 600

Jan

'18

Feb

'18

Mar

'18

Apr

'18

May

'18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18

Average Room Rate Occupancy

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

R 0

R 500

R 1 000

R 1 500

R 2 000

R 2 500

Jan

'18

Feb

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Mar

'18

Apr

'18

May

'18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep

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Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18


0%

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R 0

R 250

R 500

R 750

R 1 000

R 1 250

R 1 500

Jan

'18

Feb

'18

Mar

'18

Apr

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May

'18

Jun-

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Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

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Nov

-18

Dec

-18


0%

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40%

60%

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100%

R 0R 500

R 1 000R 1 500R 2 000R 2 500R 3 000R 3 500

Jan

'18

Feb

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Mar

'18

Apr

'18

May

'18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

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Nov

-18

Dec

-18


0%

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R 0

R 500

R 1 000

R 1 500

R 2 000

R 2 500

R 3 000

Jan

'18

Feb

'18

Mar

'18

Apr

'18

May

'18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18



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ACTUAL PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION:

Occupancy: December Percentage Point Change 2018 2017

Overall Average 69.1% 69.4% - 0.3%

City Centre 71.4% 69.8% + 1.6%

Atlantic Seaboard 71.0% 77.6% - 6.5%

Blaauwberg Coast 79.2% 80.8% - 1.5%

Cape Flats * * *

Helderberg 46.0% 48.9% - 2.8%

Southern Peninsula 66.9% 70.0% - 3.1%

Southern Suburbs 72.9% 69.0% + 3.9%

Northern Suburbs 75.5% 73.2% + 2.3%

Average Room Rate: December Percentage Point Change 2018 2017


City Centre R2 723 R2 578 + 5.6%

Atlantic Seaboard R2 636 R2 502 + 5.3%

Blaauwberg Coast R1 680 R1 598 + 5.1%

Cape Flats * * *

Helderberg R1 126 R1 077 + 4.5%

Southern Peninsula R1 068 R973 + 9.7%

Southern Suburbs R2 887 R2 797 + 3.2%

Northern Suburbs R1 304 R1 276 + 2.2%

ACTUAL PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION: Occupancy Average Room Rate


0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

City

Cen

tre

Atla

ntic

Sea

boar

d

Bla

auw

berg

Coa

st

Hel

derb

erg

Sou

ther

nP

enin

sula

Sou

ther

nS

ubur

bs

Nor

ther

nS

ubur

bs

Dec-18Dec-17

R 0

R 500

R 1 000

R 1 500

R 2 000

R 2 500

R 3 000

City

Cen

tre

Atla

ntic

Sea

boar

d

Bla

auw

berg

Coa

st

Hel

derb

erg

Sou

ther

nP

enin

sula

Sou

ther

nS

ubur

bs

Nor

ther

nS

ubur

bs

Dec-18Dec-17


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RevPAR: December Percentage Point Change 2018 2017


City Centre R1 944 R1 800 + 8.0%

Atlantic Seaboard R1 872 R1 941 - 3.6%

Blaauwberg Coast R1 331 R1 291 + 3.1%

Cape Flats * * *

Helderberg R518 R526 - 1.5%

Southern Peninsula R714 R681 + 4.9%

Southern Suburbs R2 104 R1 930 + 9.0%

Northern Suburbs R984 R933 + 5.4%

Source Market Analysis: December 2018


Overall Average 40.7% 6.9% 52.4%

City Centre 20.1% 9.2% 70.8%

Atlantic Seaboard 49.5% 4.7% 45.8%

Blaauwberg Coast 57.8% 9.8% 32.4%

Cape Flats * * *

Helderberg 56.0% 9.4% 34.7%

Southern Peninsula 26.5% 1.0% 72.4%

Southern Suburbs 47.9% 1.4% 50.7%

Northern Suburbs 82.2% 4.4% 13.4%

Average Number of Guests per Room Night Sold: December 2018


Overall Average 1.7 1.8 2.0

City Centre 1.6 1.7 1.9

Atlantic Seaboard 1.8 1.6 2.1

Blaauwberg Coast 1.9 1.7 1.5

Cape Flats * * *

Helderberg 1.9 2.0 2.0

Southern Peninsula 1.8 3.0 2.0

Southern Suburbs 1.4 1.8 2.0

Northern Suburbs 1.8 2.5 2.0



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12-Month Performance Review

CITY CENTRE

SOUTHERN PENINSULA

ATLANTIC SEABOARD

SOUTHERN SUBURBS

BLAAUWBERG COAST

NORTHERN SUBURBS

HELDERBERG

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

R 0

R 500

R 1 000

R 1 500

R 2 000

R 2 500

R 3 000

Jan

'18

Feb

'18

Mar

'18

Apr

'18

May

'18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18


0%

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40%

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100%

R 0

R 250

R 500

R 750

R 1 000

R 1 250

R 1 500

Jan

'18

Feb

'18

Mar

'18

Apr

'18

May

'18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep

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Oct

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Nov

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Dec

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0%

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40%

60%

80%

100%

R 0R 500

R 1 000R 1 500R 2 000R 2 500R 3 000R 3 500R 4 000

Jan

'18

Feb

'18

Mar

'18

Apr

'18

May

'18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

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Nov

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Dec

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0%

20%

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R 0R 500

R 1 000R 1 500R 2 000R 2 500R 3 000R 3 500

Jan

'18

Feb

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Mar

'18

Apr

'18

May

'18

Jun-

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Jul-1

8

Aug

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Oct

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Dec

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0%

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R 0R 250R 500R 750

R 1 000R 1 250R 1 500R 1 750

Jan

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Feb

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Mar

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Apr

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May

'18

Jun-

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Jul-1

8

Aug

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Oct

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Nov

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Dec

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

R 0

R 250

R 500

R 750

R 1 000

R 1 250

R 1 500

Jan

'18

Feb

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Mar

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Apr

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May

'18

Jun-

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Jul-1

8

Aug

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Sep

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Oct

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Nov

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Dec

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0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

R 0

R 250

R 500

R 750

R 1 000

R 1 250

Jan

'18

Feb

'18

Mar

'18

Apr

'18

May

'18

Jun-

18

Jul-1

8

Aug

-18

Sep

-18

Oct

-18

Nov

-18

Dec

-18



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ANTICIPATED PERFORMANCE BY ACCOMMODATION TYPE: Forecast Occupancy

January 2019 February 2019

Overall Average 70.6% 75.4%

Backpacker 69.6% 67.6%

Bed & Breakfast 75.9% 75.1%

Guesthouse 66.7% 72.4%

Hotel 71.4% 78.5%

Lodge * *

Self Catering 72.6% 71.6%

Forecast Average Room Rate


Overall Average R2 277 R2 348

Backpacker R502 R534

Bed & Breakfast R1 032 R1 041

Guesthouse R2 516 R2 325

Hotel R2 246 R2 389

Lodge * *

Self Catering R3 412 R3 429

Forecast RevPAR



Backpacker R362 R361

Bed & Breakfast R783 R781

Guesthouse R1 679 R1 684

Hotel R1 604 R1 874

Lodge * *

Self Catering R2 475 R2 456



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ANTICIPATED PERFORMANCE BY GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION: Forecast Occupancy


Overall Average 70.6% 75.4%

City Centre 72.7% 75.5%

Atlantic Seaboard 71.9% 81.9%

Blaauwberg Coast 76.5% 73.7%

Cape Flats * *

Helderberg 55.8% 70.0%

Southern Peninsula 69.8% 65.1%

Southern Suburbs 70.4% 70.9%

Northern Suburbs 73.6% 78.5%

Forecast Average Room Rate



City Centre R2 650 R2 859

Atlantic Seaboard R2 771 R2 640

Blaauwberg Coast R1 621 R1 598

Cape Flats * *

Helderberg R1 176 R1 160

Southern Peninsula R1 034 R1 066

Southern Suburbs R3 241 R3 452

Northern Suburbs R1 261 R1 276

Forecast RevPAR



City Centre R1 927 R2 158

Atlantic Seaboard R1 992 R2 163

Blaauwberg Coast R1 241 R1 178

Cape Flats * *

Helderberg R656 R812

Southern Peninsula R722 R694

Southern Suburbs R2 282 R2 446

Northern Suburbs R927 R1 001



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EXPLANATION OF TERMS:

OCCUPANCY

The term Occupancy refers to the number of room nights sold, divided by the number of room

nights available in respect of a defined period in time, expressed as a percentage.

AVERAGE ROOM RATE

The term Average Room Rate is an accommodation establishment’s net accommodation revenue

per room night sold. The Average Room Rate excludes meals and any other items that may be

included in the Rack Rate and accounts for all discounts and the incidence of multiple occupancy.

REVPAR

Revenue per Available Room (RevPAR) is a conceptual link between average occupancy rates and

Average Room Rates; it is the net accommodation revenue per day, per available room.

DOMESTIC SOURCE MARKET

Domestic tourism refers to residents of South Africa travelling within South Africa.

REGIONAL/ AFRICAN SOURCE MARKET

Regional/ African tourism refers to residents from a country on the African Continent travelling to

South Africa.

INTERNATIONAL SOURCE MARKET

International tourism refers to residents from a country in one region of the world (e.g.: Europe),

excluding Africa, travelling to South Africa.


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SURVEY METHODOLOGY:

As with all studies of this kind, a random sample of data collection methodology was used to

enlist participants for this report. Therefore, while we believe the results to be the most accurate

available, they are still subject to non-sampling errors. In addition, although the information in this

report has been obtained from sources which we believe to be reliable and accurate, we do not

guarantee its accuracy since it is submitted by third parties.

The values presented in the report, both for the current month and in respect of the same period

last year, are averages of the responding establishments’ data. We feel this calculation to be most

reflective of the industry segments.

This report is not intended to represent the rendering of legal, accounting, or professional

services. The values presented should not be considered a standard for any accommodation type

or geographic location, but only as a guideline for comparison with the performance results of your

establishment. They are not an attempt by the publisher of this report to set or conform prices or

operating standards for the accommodation sector within the Cape Town metropole.


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CONTACT DETAILS:

CAPE TOWN TOURISM

Physical address: The Pinnacle Building ▪ cnr Burg & Castle Street ▪ Cape Town ▪ 8000

Postal address: P O Box 1403 ▪ Cape Town ▪ 8001 ▪ South Africa

Telephone: +27 (0)21 487 6800

Facsimile +27 (0)21 487 6440

E-mail: [email protected]

Website: www.capetown.travel

HORWATH HTL

Physical address: Office 16 ▪ Klein Joostenberg on the R304 ▪ Muldersvlei ▪

Stellenbosch ▪ 7607

Postal address: P O Box 50388 ▪ West Beach ▪ 7449 ▪ South Africa

Telephone: +27 (0)21 884 3200

Facsimile +27 (0)21 884 3201

E-mail: [email protected]

Website: www.HorwathHTL.co.za ▪ www.HorwathHTL.com

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