can you predict the future? using simple scenarios to plan your business
TRANSCRIPT
Can You Predict the Future?
Using Simple Scenarios to Plan Your Business Russell Cummings
Strategic Business Development
January 2014
What is “Scenario Planning?”
Scenario Planning – Mindshop 5 Step Process
PESTEL Analysis
Political
Economic
Social
Technological
Environmental
Legal
Trend Analysis
• Mindmap key trends in your
market or that will affect your
business using PESTEL to trigger
ideas
• Perform a Pareto Analysis on
the trends. Mindmap to
identify the two trends with the
biggest impact
Exercise – Developing the Scenarios
• Use two key trends as the axis to provide 4 different scenarios with specific traits
• Brand the scenarios relevant to the attributes
High A$
Low A$
Good Poor Seasonal Seasonal Conditions Conditions Export Opportunities
• Downward price pressure • Good product quality • Less import pressure • Export opportunities • Increased supply
Oversupply • Increased product supply • Pressure from imports • Export challenges • Downward price pressure • Good general product quality
Import Challenges • Reduced supply • Variable quality • Big export challenges • Imports very competitive • Strong downward price pressure
Adding Value • Lower supply volumes • General quality issues • Export opportunities
• Value-add • Good price opportunities for quality
Here is an example of the future of e-learning
Testing the Scenarios
Test key strategies of the plan against each of the 4 scenarios
Strategies Scenarios
Oversupply Import Challenges Export Opportunities Adding Value
Explore growth in
new markets
Focus on secure
opportunities only
Focus on existing markets Investigate new export
markets
Investigate new export
markets
Develop new
product lines
Investigate products around
“uber-quality”
Investigate value-add
products that utilise low
quality product
Investigate export
products for “uber-
quality”
Value-add to low quality
product
Leadership Training
for Emerging
Managers
Focus heavily on customer
service and adapted sales
Focus on adapted sales,
customer service and
team coaching
Focus on sales, product
marketing, coaching of
the team
Focus on sales, coaching
and product marketing
Improve our systems Focus on systems that will
eliminate costs
Focus on systems that will
eliminate costs and
improve customer
service
Focus on systems to
improve customer
service and sales
Focus on systems to
improve customer
service and sales
Scenario Planning – Mindshop 5 Step Process
Russell Cummings Business Consultant M: +61 414 929 585
W: www.sbdbusiness.com.au
Questions?
Russell Cummings Business Consultant M: +61 414 929 585
W: www.sbdbusiness.com.au
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