can the world feed itself? j.g. mexal a/h 100g. can the world feed itself?/ ap 10/12/99 year (a.d.)...

Can the World Feed Itself?

J.G. Mexal

A/H 100G

Can the World Feed Itself?/AP 10/12/99

Year (A.D.)

1999

0

2

4

6

1000 1250 1500 1750 2000

No. (billion)


Country Income spent on food

(%)

Population in agriculture

(%)

TVs per 1000

people

Telephones per 1000 people

USA 11 <2 449 604

France 26 14 227 185

Russia 35 32 160 49

Yugoslavia 39 53 100 40

Brazil 47 44 68 24

India 64 68 <1 2

We are what we eat!

Lifestyle Percentages of Energy from: Fiber

Fat Sugar Starch Protein (g/day)

Hunter/gatherer 15-20 0 50-70 15-20 40

Peasant farmer 10-15 5 60-75 10-15 90

Affluent society >40 20 25-30 12 20

Change in food consumption/Britain

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

1780 1880 1980

Fat

Cereal (crude fiber)

Wheat flour

Sugar

Potatoes

Year

Consumption (g/cap/d)


Food Source of Calories Source of Protein

India US India US

Cereals, starch 65 % 25 % 64 % 21 %

Sugars 6 % 12 % -- --

Pulses 10 % 4 % 18 % 3 %

Fruits, Veges 2 % 6 % 1 % 4 %

Fats, Oils 4 % 19 % -- --

Milk, Milk products 7 % 14 % 11 % 26 %

Meats, eggs, Fish 6 % 20 % 6 % 46 %

Chrispeels & Sadava 1994

Origin of Cultivated Plants1 =China

Peach, Walnut, Persimmon, Tea, Soybean, Horseradish,

Chinese cabbage, Cucumber

2 =South Asia/PacificSugar cane, Eggplant, Mango,Banana, Citrus, Black pepper,

Jute, Hemp, Coconut, Rice, Onion

4,5 Near Eastern RegionWheat, Barley, Pea, Asparagus,

Carrot, Olive, Stone fruits,Apple, Pear, Flax, Onion,

Cabbage, Broccoli

6 = AfricaYam, Sorghum, Okra, Melons,Cotton, Oil palm, Castor bean

7 = North AmericaPecan, Sunflower, Tobacco

8 = South/Central AmericaChile, Corn, Peanut, Potato, Bean, Cashew, Pineapple, Avocado, Cotton, Cacao, Pumpkin, Squash, Rubber,

Vanilla

Grains, Forages & Fibers

• Fibers– Cotton– Rayon– Flax– Hemp– Jute– Ramie– Sisal– Tencel

• Annual Production– 14 KK tons– ? (wood)– 1 KK tons (phloem)– 0.250 KK tons (phloem)– ? (bark)– ?– 0.050 KK tons (Agave leaves)– ? (wood)


Forages Cropland Pasture

World 1,500 KK ha 3,000 KK ha

US 300 KK ha 300 KK ha

New Mexico

Alfalfa hay

Other hay

230K ac

70K ac


• Grain– Rice– Wheat– Maize (corn)– Barley– Sorghum– Oats– Millet– Rye

• Annual Production– 350 KK tons– 400 KK tons– 350 KK tons– 180 KK tons– 55 KK tons– 50 KK tons– 40 KK tons– 30 KK tons

Avg yield = 4 t/haFeeds 60% of world

population (China & India)

• Area (KK ha)– 146– 232– 140– 77– 55– --– 42– --

Foodstuffs

Crop Area

(KK ha)

Yield

(t/ha)

Yield (kg/cap)

Root & Tubers 50 13.2 110

Potatoes 20 16.1 53.6

Cassava 16 9.8 26.4

Pulses (legumes) 65 0.9 9.8

Soybeans 55 1.9 17.4

Dry beans 23 0.5 1.9

US Agriculture/Parade Magazine 1997

• Production– #1

• Corn (10.1 kkk bu/yr)• Tomatoes• Soybeans• Almonds• Walnuts• Strawberries• Citrus (lemons, limes,

grapefruits)• Paper• Cigarettes• Beer

• Production– #3

• Vegetables• Fruits• Sugar

– #4• Tobacco• Potatoes• Cucumbers

– #10 sunflower seeds

US Agriculture/Parade Magazine 1997

• Imports = #1– Tractors– Bananas– Coffee– Vanilla– Pepper– Pimientos– Cocoa– Oats– Pineapples– Castor oil– Beer– Distilled alcohol bevereges

• Exports = #1– Cotton– Wheat– Fruits– Nuts– Corn– Soybeans– Apples– Fertilizers– Pesticides

Consumer:#1 Cocaine Gin Paper#4 Calories/capita

Changing Technology

Input Manual labor 1910 1980 % (1910/1980)

Labor (h) 1,200 120 12 10

Machinery (kg) 1 15 55 367

Animals use (h) 0 120 0 --

Fuel (L) 0 0 125 --

Manure (kg) 0 4,000 1,000 25

Fertilizers (kg) 0 10 742 7420

Seeds (kg) 11 11 21 191

Pesticides (kg) 0 0 21 --

Irrigation (%) 0 0 17 --

Transport (kg) 0 0 326 --

Yield (kg) 1,880 1,880 6,500 346

Chrispeels & Sadava 1994

Dryland vs Irrigated Agriculture in the US/ Alternative Agriculture

Crop Dryland Yield Irrigated Yield

(per acre) (per acre) %

Corn (bu) 106 137 129

Wheat (bu) 32 93 291

Sorghum (bu) 54 93 172

Barley (bu) 48 81 169

Soybeans (bu) 31 36 116

Potatoes (cwt) 83 333 401

Cotton (bales 0.9 1.7 189

New Mexico Agriculture

Commodity 1996 2000 2003

Acreage $K Acreage $K Acreage $K

Livestock n.a. 1,197,489 n.a. 1,613,107 n.a. 2,139,590

Crops 1,454,380 511,567 473,305 542,790

Hay 355,000 #1 154,745 380,000 190,864 300,000 #1 144,611

Chile 27,700 #2 65,460 19,000 49,910 15,800 #5 37,800

Onions 7,100 #3 44,744 7,700 32,764 7,700 #3 61,408

Nursery n.a. #4 39,358 n.a. 50,935 n.a. #4 60,804

Cotton 69,000 #5 38,929 71,100 30,756 44,000 #6 26,989

Corn 84,000 #6 38,673 75,000 23,656 48,000 #7 16,936

Potatoes 10,300 #7 19,903 9,800 16,089 5,900 #8 14,765

Wheat 110,000 #8 18,195 175,000 13,031 140,000 #9 12,541

Pecans 25,280 #9 16,280 29,622 47,950 33,100 #2 70,400

Peanuts 16,500 #10 9,954 26,000 16,103 17,000 #10 8,721


Commodity 1996 2000 2003



Crops 1,454,380 511,567 473,305 542,790

Hay 355,000 #1 154,745 380,000 190,864 300,000 #1 144,611

Chile 27,700 #2 65,460 19,000 49,910 15,800 #5 37,800

Onions 7,100 #3 44,744 7,700 32,764 7,700 #3 61,408

Nursery n.a. #4 39,358 n.a. 50,935 n.a. #4 60,804

Cotton 69,000 #5 38,929 71,100 30,756 44,000 #6 26,989

Corn 84,000 #6 38,673 75,000 23,656 48,000 #7 16,936

Potatoes 10,300 #7 19,903 9,800 16,089 5,900 #8 14,765

Wheat 110,000 #8 18,195 175,000 13,031 140,000 #9 12,541

Pecans 25,280 #9 16,280 29,622 47,950 33,100 #2 70,400

Peanuts 16,500 #10 9,954 26,000 16,103 17,000 #10 8,721

Crop income

down 6%


Commodity 1996 2000 2003



Crops 1,454,380 511,567 473,305 542,790

Hay 355,000 #1 154,745 380,000 190,864 300,000 #1 144,611

Chile 27,700 #2 65,460 19,000 49,910 15,800 #5 37,800

Onions 7,100 #3 44,744 7,700 32,764 7,700 #3 61,408

Nursery n.a. #4 39,358 n.a. 50,935 n.a. #4 60,804

Cotton 69,000 #5 38,929 71,100 30,756 44,000 #6 26,989

Corn 84,000 #6 38,673 75,000 23,656 48,000 #7 16,936

Potatoes 10,300 #7 19,903 9,800 16,089 5,900 #8 14,765

Wheat 110,000 #8 18,195 175,000 13,031 140,000 #9 12,541

Pecans 25,280 #9 16,280 29,622 47,950 33,100 #2 70,400

Peanuts 16,500 #10 9,954 26,000 16,103 17,000 #10 8,721

Chile acreage down 43%-

NAFTA


Commodity 1996 2000 2003



Crops 1,454,380 511,567 473,305 542,790

Hay 355,000 #1 154,745 380,000 190,864 300,000 #1 144,611

Chile 27,700 #2 65,460 19,000 49,910 15,800 #5 37,800

Onions 7,100 #3 44,744 7,700 32,764 7,700 #3 61,408

Nursery n.a. #4 39,358 n.a. 50,935 n.a. #4 60,804

Cotton 69,000 #5 38,929 71,100 30,756 44,000 #6 26,989

Corn 84,000 #6 38,673 75,000 23,656 48,000 #7 16,936

Potatoes 10,300 #7 19,903 9,800 16,089 5,900 #8 14,765

Wheat 110,000 #8 18,195 175,000 13,031 140,000 #9 12,541

Pecans 25,280 #9 16,280 29,622 47,950 33,100 #2 70,400

Peanuts 16,500 #10 9,954 26,000 16,103 17,000 #10 8,721

Cotton acreage down 34%-China/India


Commodity 1996 2000 2003



Crops 1,454,380 511,567 473,305 542,790

Hay 355,000 #1 154,745 380,000 190,864 300,000 #1 144,611

Chile 27,700 #2 65,460 19,000 49,910 15,800 #5 37,800

Onions 7,100 #3 44,744 7,700 32,764 7,700 #3 61,408

Nursery n.a. #4 39,358 n.a. 50,935 n.a. #4 60,804

Cotton 69,000 #5 38,929 71,100 30,756 44,000 #6 26,989

Corn 84,000 #6 38,673 75,000 23,656 48,000 #7 16,936

Potatoes 10,300 #7 19,903 9,800 16,089 5,900 #8 14,765

Wheat 110,000 #8 18,195 175,000 13,031 140,000 #9 12,541

Pecans 25,280 #9 16,280 29,622 47,950 33,100 #2 70,400

Peanuts 16,500 #10 9,954 26,000 16,103 17,000 #10 8,721

Corn acreage down 43%-

drought


Commodity 1996 2000 2003



Crops 1,454,380 511,567 473,305 542,790

Hay 355,000 #1 154,745 380,000 190,864 300,000 #1 144,611

Chile 27,700 #2 65,460 19,000 49,910 15,800 #5 37,800

Onions 7,100 #3 44,744 7,700 32,764 7,700 #3 61,408

Nursery n.a. #4 39,358 n.a. 50,935 n.a. #4 60,804

Cotton 69,000 #5 38,929 71,100 30,756 44,000 #6 26,989

Corn 84,000 #6 38,673 75,000 23,656 48,000 #7 16,936

Potatoes 10,300 #7 19,903 9,800 16,089 5,900 #8 14,765

Wheat 110,000 #8 18,195 175,000 13,031 140,000 #9 12,541

Pecans 25,280 #9 16,280 29,622 47,950 33,100 #2 70,400

Peanuts 16,500 #10 9,954 26,000 16,103 17,000 #10 8,721

Wheat acreage up 27%-

replaced corn?


Commodity 1996 2000 2003



Crops 1,454,380 511,567 473,305 542,790

Hay 355,000 #1 154,745 380,000 190,864 300,000 #1 144,611

Chile 27,700 #2 65,460 19,000 49,910 15,800 #5 37,800

Onions 7,100 #3 44,744 7,700 32,764 7,700 #3 61,408

Nursery n.a. #4 39,358 n.a. 50,935 n.a. #4 60,804

Cotton 69,000 #5 38,929 71,100 30,756 44,000 #6 26,989

Corn 84,000 #6 38,673 75,000 23,656 48,000 #7 16,936

Potatoes 10,300 #7 19,903 9,800 16,089 5,900 #8 14,765

Wheat 110,000 #8 18,195 175,000 13,031 140,000 #9 12,541

Pecans 25,280 #9 16,280 29,622 47,950 33,100 #2 70,400

Peanuts 16,500 #10 9,954 26,000 16,103 17,000 #10 8,721

Pecan acreage up 31%-

Hi $ / lo inputs

What is Sustainable Agriculture?

• Environmental Groups: “Sustainable agriculture means providing food in ways that do not contaminate the environment or harm humans.”

Maureen Hinkle, National Audubon Society

• Academia: “There must be a major commitment to a viable farm sector, rural communities, enhanced environmental quality, and overall improvement in quality of life for the farm sector and society as a whole.”

G.S. Bird, Michigan St U.

• Agricultural Research Firms: “Sustainable agriculture is a high-tech industry that achieves high productivity by drawing on the best in modern agricultural science.”

R.L. Thompson, Winrock International

• Alternative Agriculture: “A sustainable agriculture is one that can be maintained indefinitely.”

Youngberg, H.A. Wallace Inst. Alternative Agriculture

• Agricultural Groups: “Sustainable ag is an effort to develop production systems that maintain yields while increasing efficiency of inputs, minimizing the potential for harmful side-effects, and decreasing dependency on nonrenewable resources.”

D.R. Swaim, Crop Consultant

Top 10 Reasons to Buy OrganicSource: Organic Times 1992

1. Protect future generations—“The average child receives four times more exposure than an adult to at least 8 widely used cancer-causing pesticides in food.”

2. Prevent soil erosion--- “...3 billion tons of topsoil are eroded...each year.”3. Protect water quality--- “EPA estimates pesticides contaminate the groundwater

in 38 states.”4. Save energy--- “Farming consumes 12% of the country’s total energy supply.”5. Keep chemicals off your plate--- “NAS estimated that pesticides might cause

an extra 1.4 million cancer cases.”6. Protect farm worker health--- “Farmers have a 6X greater risk than non-farmers

of contracting cancer.”7. Help small farmers---“Organic farming could be one of the few survival tactics left

for family farms.”8. Support a true economy---“Conventional food prices do not reflect hidden costs

borne by taxpayers, including nearly $74 billion in federal subsidies.”9. Promote biodiversity---“Lack of natural diversity of plant life has left the soil

lacking in natural minerals and nutrients.”10.Taste better flavor---“They taste better!”

0 5 10 15 20 25 30

Natural

Conventional

2010

2005

Projected Global Pesticide Sales/ Business Communication Co. 2006

Billion Dollars

Pesticides

4.6%

2.6%

Organic Foods May Be Hazardous to Your Health!

Is That True?J.G. Mexal

Department Curmudgeon

Organic Food

Is That True?Organic Food Production

• Is not sustainable!

• Is not better for the plant!

• Is not better for the producer!

• Is not better for the consumer!

• Is not better for the environment!

Organic Food

Is That True?Organic Food Production

• Is not sustainable!– N deposition (natural fertilization) = 5-10 kg/ha/yr

• Sustainable harvest = 250-500 kg/ha/yr (@2%N)

– Not enough O.M. in Mesilla Valley• 44,000 milk cows produce over 16,000 t OM/yr• 1 t OM ~ 10 kg N (50% available in Yr-1)• 60,000 ac X 20 t OM/ac = 1,200,000 t OM/yr• Need over 3 million cows in Doña Ana Co.

Organic Food

Is That True?Organic Food Production• Is not sustainable!

• Is not better for the plant!– Plants absorb inorganic nutrients

• No vitamins, no amino acids, etc• Regardless of source (organic, inorganic)

– Actually, a lot of the work is done by beneficial fungi (this is a hint)

Organic Food

Is That True?Organic Food Production• Is not sustainable!• Is not better for the plant!

• Is not better for the producer!– Anything profitable, will be ‘WalMartisized’– Innovators have only a small window of

opportunity or niche

Organic Food

Is That True?Organic Food Production• Is not sustainable!• Is not better for the plant!• Is not better for the producer!

• Is not better for the consumer!– More expensive (30% to 100% higher cost)– Not safer– No nutritional benefit

• How can it be?????

• Picked closer to maturity (applies to Farmer’s Market [picked fresh])

Organic Food

Is That True?Organic Food Production• Is not sustainable!• Is not better for the plant!• Is not better for the producer!• Is not better for the consumer!

• Is not better for the environment!

• What’s wrong with our food?– Too cheap (<11% of our disposable income)– Too readily available

• Fast food• Improperly prepared (even the salads)

– We have Supersized everything we eat, but Minisized our caloric expenditures.

– More people die bicycling than from pesticide residue on foods

• Food deaths are caused by handling contamination (fecal)

Organic Food

Is That True?

Here are some real risks!

• Activity– Smoking– Alcohol– Driving– Handguns– Swimming– Flying– Bicycles– Skiing– Food additives– Pesticides

• Deaths/year– 150,000– 100,000– 50,000– 17,000– 3,000– 1,300– 1,000– 18– <1– <1

Pesticide Toxicity

• Chemical LD50 (mg/kg)• Dipel 10,000• Surflan 10,000 • B-Nine 8,400• Insecticidal soap 5,068• Pyrethrum <1,500• Diazinon <735• Orthene 945• Sevin 500• Bordeaux 470• Temik 0.9

can the world feed itself? j.g. mexal a/h 100g. can the world feed itself?/ ap 10/12/99 year (a.d.)...

Documents

kk tons phloem

kk ha3

kk tons avg yield

kk ha us

vanilla slide

ac slide

wood slide

kk tons agave leaves