can south asia end poverty in a generation? 1 can south asia end poverty in a generation?
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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
Can South Asia end povertyin a generation?
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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
GDP growth in South Asia has been strong and accelerating
Source: World Development Indicators
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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
Rapid growth is reducing poverty, but inequality is increasing
Source: Narayan, Ambar, et. al. 2006. “The challenge of promoting equality and inclusion in South Asian countries.” mimeo, World Bank: Washington DC.
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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
Regional inequality in Indiais growing
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
- 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
P er capita income in 1980/81
HYRJ
P J
BH
UP
MP
1980s
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
- 3,000 6,000 9,000 12,000 15,000
Per capita income in 1990/91
P J
HYRJ
MP
UP
BH
1990s and 2000s
2.5%
6.5%
Land-locked states
Coastal states
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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
Big gaps between enrolment and completion in primary education
Source: Schweitzer, Julian. 2006. “Human development in South Asia.” mimeo, World Bank: Washington, DC.
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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
Table 6: Primary Education Learning Outcomes by Province, 2003
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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
Bangladesh’s institutional weaknesses in governance
Source: Kaufmann, Kraay, and Mastruzzi (2005).
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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
24x7 water: A pipe dream?
Source: Data collected from the water boards or utilities
Liters per capita per day vs. hours of supply/dayGoa
Chandigarh
Mumbai
Delhi
Patna
Ludhiana
Jodhpur
Dasuya
Dera Bassi
Paris
Jaipur
Ahmedabad
Bikaner
Bangalore
Gurdaspur
Bathinda
Bharatpur
Udaipur
Chennai 3280
105106
108123
133145
149
173184
190220
222223
240332
341
1.5 2.5 1.5
8 10 2.5 1.5
2 3
8 10 2.5 10 10
4 5
10
8
24150
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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
Politics, patronage, & network services
POLITICIANS
EMPLOYEESUTILITY
COMPANY
CONNECTEDPOPULATION
Operational subsidiesAppointment of directors
Political favours
Artificiallydepressed
tariffs
Poorquality of
service
Over-staffing
UNCONNECTEDPOPULATION
High prices
CONTRACTORS
Untendered contracts
Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
Contribution of Key Sectors to the Overall GDP Growth Rate
0.1%
0.2%
0.4% 0.4%
0.7% 0.8%
1.1%1.1%
0.3%
0.4% 0.4%
0.6%
1.1%1.1%
0.6%
0.8%
0.0%
0.2%
0.4%
0.6%
0.8%
1.0%
1.2%
1.4%
Communication Construction Banking &insurance
Real estate, &businessservices
Trade, hotels &restaurant
Community,social& personal
services
Agriculture Manufacturing
1980s
P ost-1990
In India, 100 million farmers contribute as much to GDP growth as 1 million business professionals
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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
Employment protection in South Asia is among the most rigid
worldwide
Source: Doing Business 2006. World Bank: Washington, DC.
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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
Stipends yield big gains for Bangladesh secondary education
Source: World Bank. 2006. Bangladesh: Secondary Education Development Support Credit II. World Bank: Washington, DC.
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Can South Asia end poverty in a generation?
Making the most of a second decade of rapid growth
• As it ends its first decade of rapid growth, South Asia is at a crossroads
• A second decade of rapid growth is not guaranteed
• South Asians can be complacent and continue to grow at 5-6 percent and make slow progress on inequality, human development, and weak governance
• Or they can leverage their recent growth, build on success and end mass poverty in a generation