can owning a cell phone replace the desire to own a car? the emerging entrepreneurs who are mashing...
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Summer 2011 field research proposal for Albert Ching, research assistant for the Future of Urban Mobility Singapore projectTRANSCRIPT
Can owning a cell phone replace the desire to own a car?The emerging entrepreneurs who are mashing-up intelligence + transportation in developing Asia
Albert ChingMasters of City Planning Candidate, 2012Research Assistant, Future of Urban Mobility Singapore
In India, cell phones 50x as ubiquitous as cars750+ million cell phones (launched in 1995) vs. 13 million cars (launched 1897)
The problem
Rush hour traffic in Jakarta
“Transport-related CO2 emissions
expected to increase 57%
worldwide from 2005-30 . . . the
majority of these will come from
private vehicles”(ADB 2009)
The private auto lock-in* death spiral (city-scale)
Gov’t with limited resources
Public transport poor
1Low ridership
Poor with limited
mobility
Middle- & upper-
class purchase private 2-
or 4-wheeler*
Increases congestio
n
City expands
Investment in road infrastructure*
Poor pedestrianwalkways
2
Air pollution
Unsustainable levels of CO2 +
GHGs
3
Mass transit extremely
costly, difficult to
implement, and does not
reduce congestion
(Gakenheimer 2011)
“Transport infrastructure in the next 5-10 years to support motorization will lock-in transport-related
CO2 emission patterns for the coming 20-30 years in
Asia”(ADB 2009)
“The poor typically make 20-30% less trips and rely much more on
non-motorised and public transport. The
poor have a more limited range of
destinations, being more focused on core
destinations”(GTZ Sourcebook 2002)
Walk-ing
Quality of mobility
(no. of trips,accessibility
to destinations, comfort,
convenience,
productivity)
Personal income
Bicycle
Para-transit
Private 2-wheeler
Private auto
Pri
vate
auto
Pri
vate
2-
wheele
r
Bic
ycl
e
Public transport
The private auto lock-in* death spiral (rational
consumer)
Auto lock-in*
Cost
per
trip
In developing Asia where public transport and non-motorised options are poor, the quality of mobility increases significantly with access to private vehicles
Once consumers are locked-in, they may not perceive the effective
increase in cost per trip
1
2
The private auto lock-in* death spiral (aspirational
consumer)
Source: Barter (1999) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder*Income figures only available at country level; Motorization 2004 figures
Most cities in developing Asia still with low per
capita incomes and motorization rates
2
3
Singapore ($43K, 150)
Hong Kong($39K
, 80)
Sydney / Melbourne
($34K, 630)
Tokyo*($30K, 275)Seoul*
($23K, 220)
Kuala Lumpur($12
K, 270)
Bangkok($7K, ~200)
Dhaka($1K, 2)
Unr
estr
aine
d
mot
oriz
atio
n
Beijing / Shanghai($7K,
80)Jakarta($4K, 50)
Manilla($3K, 30)
Bangalore
($3K, 12)
Significant car ownership aspiration (Source: AC Nielson)
Per capita income (2009 Fixed $PPP)
1
Low motorization
Globally, there is a strong correlation
between income and private motorization
rates
Au
tos p
er
1000
peop
le
Restrained motorization
Source: Acharya and Morichi (2005) updated with current statistics from Wikipedia / Gapminder*Motorization 2004 figures
. . . although lock-in may happen at lower
motorization rates due to developing Asia’s higher
densities
Bangkok(~200, 65)
Kuala Lumpur(240,
8)
Sydney / Melbourne (630, 20)
Singapore (150, 93)
Hong Kong(80,
70)
Tokyo*(275, 50)
Seoul*(220, 90)
Do higher densities limit short-term motorization
and/or eventually lead to lower density development?
Dhaka(2, 89)
Beijing / Shanghai
(80, 150)Manilla(30, 78)
Bangalore
(12, 130)
Auto lock-in lineJakarta
(50, 100) Low motorization cities
all expected to increase urban populations by 10-
90%
Au
tos p
er
1000
peop
le
Urban density(Persons per hectare)
Enter the mobile phone, the fastest growing,
perhaps highest valued-added product in human
history
Tracks and locates user
travel demand in real-
time
1
Provides real-time travel
supply information for
users
2
Provides information on
new destinations4
Enables productive use
of travel time3
Can become a new
vehicle for travel
payments
5
Intelligence infrastructure way ahead of
transportation in most developing Asian cities
Singapore Kuala Lumpur
Bangkok Jakarta Bangalore Dhaka
16
27
17
2 1 0
75
106
81
73
63
40
Private Autos per 100
Mobile Phones per 100
4.7x
3.9x
4.9x
35x
53x
201x
Makes existing shared modes more efficient and on-demand
Creates sharing systems for private modes
Increases the opportunity cost of drivingIntelligence can
enlarge the circle of trust by managing user behavior as well as fleet logistics
Smartphoneshave increased the opportunity cost of driving
Mobile apps are making transit more convenient, personalized and integrated with the community
Brings better- quality goods and services closer to usersMobile food trucks and robust online delivery services have eliminated the need for some trips while destination (e.g. restaurant) reviews help to ensure that trips are of higher quality
What is the magnitude of these impacts relative to other measures e.g. congestion pricing?
1 2 3 4
(In less dense environments) intelligence can more efficiently match real-time para-transit supply and demand
Provides economic benefit to drivers
Can provide accessibility to more disadvantaged populations (women, poor)
In developed contexts, an intelligence layer is
creating new possibilities that may potentially
deter private auto ownership
Smartphones expect to be pervasive in developing Asia in 3-5 years
Online eco-system in early stages in developing Asia
Tracks and locates
user travel demand in
real-time
1
Tracks and locates travel
supply information in
real-time
2
Efficiently matches real-
time
supply and demand
3
Even basic mobile phone technology enables more
coordinated sharing of transport assets across
space and time
Efficiency gains potentially create new business models and alternatives to private auto ownership
In more dense environments,
high demand and high
frequency service can relatively
efficiently match supply with
demand
Technologies required for each
one of these functions need not
be the most sophisticated ones
on the market; Basic SMS and
call can sometimes perform
better than GPS
Go-JEK, on-demand motorcycle taxi and goods delivery service in Jakarta, launched January 2011
Entrepreneurs in developing Asia are beginning to
pilot ways to use mobile-driven intelligence to
create sustainable profit from these transport
efficiency gains Normal motorcycle taxi utilization rate = 30%
In doing so, entrepreneurs may be offsetting some
of the spatial constraints of private auto growth
(city-scale)
Private Auto
Private Moto
Car Share
Auto Taxi
Moto Taxi
Rickshaw Taxi
Bus Jitneys
Road space (in sq m)
5 2 5 6 2 4 25
Idling time (per day)
90% 90% 80% 70% 70% 70% 50%
Occupancy rate (no. of passengers)
1 1 1 1.2 (excl driver)
1(excl driver)
1 (excl driver)
10
Wasted road space-days per day per capita
4.5 1.8 2.5 3.5 1.4 2.8 1.3
Private automobile / moto substitutes
(motorised)
Figures are illustrative
Walk-ing
Quality of mobility
(no. of trips,accessibility
to destinations, comfort,
convenience,
productivity)
Personal income
Bicycle
Para-transit
Private 2-wheeler
Private auto
Pri
vate
auto
Pri
vate
2-
wheele
r
Bic
ycl
e
Public transport
Pre-auto lock-in*
1M
obile
phone
Pri
vate
auto
-shari
ng
Shared private auto and bicycle modes more accessible
Para-transit more on-demand and potentially integrated with public transit
2
. . . creating real mobility alternatives to private
auto ownership (rational consumer)
and developing new aspirations for access rather
than ownership (aspirational consumer)
Source: “Tech for Transit: Designing a Future System” by Latitude Research + Next American City
Summer 2011 Field Research Proposal
Go-JEKLaunched Feb 2011
To what extent is mobile-driven transport experimentation
happening across developing Asia?
Methodology: 2-3 day field visit to 1-2 select cities including general
observation, targeted interviews, and background research
My Teksi(To be launched Aug
2011)
Namma Cycle(To be launched Jul
2011)
Fazilka Eco-Cabs
Launched Jun 2008
Makes existing shared modes more efficient and on-demand
Creates sharing systems for private modes
Increases the opportunity cost of driving
Brings better- quality goods and services closer to users
1 2 3 4
1
Are current experiments sustainable and scalable?What policies might spark and support these efforts?Methodology: 1-3 week field visit and case studies with at least 2 entrepreneurs
2
Do customers perceive these intelligently enabled transport modes as substitutes
for car ownership?Methodology: Detail the customer experience.
If possible, obtain customer feedback and return rates
3
APPENDIX
Entrepreneurs in developing Asia are beginning to
mash-up new intelligence infrastructure with private
automobile substitutes
Fazilka eco-cabs, dial-a-rickshaw service launched in Punjab, India in June 2008 and expanding to larger cities of Amritsar and Chandigarh