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How is the process of globalizationinfluencing Indian companies?

The Indian companies haveresponded very well to the phenomenon ofglobalization within a very short period oftime. This has been possible primarily dueto the facilitative and enabling policies put inplace by the government. About two decadesago only some Indians would have beenconversant with Information Technology;however today Indian exports from this sectorare of the order of $10 billion.

What are the main reasons forforeign companies to invest and localize

in India?India is the largest functioning

democracy in the world with politicalconsensus on the economy. It hasabundantly available qualified and competenthuman resource base, untapped naturalresources, rich mineral base and agriculturalsurplus. The manufacturing capability is hugespanning almost all sectors. The consumermarket is large and expanding exponentially.Special investment and tax incentives for

infra-structural development prevail.

How can we run an efficient countrywith Good Governance and EffectiveAdministration?

Today, China is the most obviouspower on the rise. But it is not alone: Indiaand other Asian states growth rates that couldoutstrip those of major Western countries fordecades to come. Chinas economy isgrowing at more than nine percent annually,

Indias at eight percent. Chinas economy isexpected to be double the size of Germanysby 2010 and to overtake Japans, currentlythe worlds second largest, by 2020. If Indiasustains a six percent growth rate for 50years, as some financial analysts thinkpossible, it will equal or overtake China in thattime.

Nevertheless, Chinas ownextraordinary economic rise is likely tocontinue for several decades if, that is, itcan manage the tremendous disruptions

caused by rapid growth, such as internalmigration from rural to urban areas, highlevels of unemployment, massive bank debt,and pervasive corruption. At the moment,China is facing a crucial test in its transitionto a market economy. It is experiencingincreased inflation, real-estate bubbles, andgrowing shortages of key resources suchas oil, water, electricity, and steel. Beijing istightening the money supply and big-banklending, while continuing efforts to clean up

the fragile banking sector. It is alsoconsidering raising the value of its dollar-pegged currency, to lower the cost ofimports. If such attempts to cool Chinaseconomy which is much larger and moredecentralized than it was ten years ago,when it last overheated do not work, itcould crash.

Even if temporary, such a massivebust would have dire consequences. Chinais now such a large player in the global

economy that its health is inextricably linkedto that of the system at large. China hasbecome the engine driving the recovery ofother Asian economies from the setbacksof the 1990s. Japan, for example, hasbecome the largest beneficiary of Chinaseconomic growth, and its leading economicindicators, including consumer spending,have improved as a result. The latest officialfigures indicate thatJapans real

GDP rose at theannual rate of 6.4percent in the lastquarter of 2003,the highest growthof any quarter since1990.But that trendmight not continue if

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China crashes.

How has this global recognitionemerged?

The IT sector has helped India achieveglobal recognition and self-confidence.Quality manufacturing sector is also nowbeginning to emerge. In the last 3 years,Indian exports have increased tremendouslynot only because of the cost advantage butmainly due to quality aspects. But realizingthe vision is not easy, we would need to putin efforts to: establish a dynamic qualityeducational system; create a world-classinfrastructure; build high value industrial

growth, which could pull labour from underemployment in agriculture into highproductivity jobs in industry; and modernizeagriculture and related industries.

In order to realize developed Indiaby 2020, five key areas have been identifiedfor an integrated action:

(1) Agriculture and food processing:

With a target of 400 million tons perannum of food-grains as well as other with

different targets and agricultural products.Agriculture with the second green revolutionand agro food processing would bring foodsecurity and prosperity to rural people andspeed up the economic growth.

(2)Education and Healthcare:

Aiming to increase the employmentpotential leading to social security andpopulation control.

(3)Infrastructure development:

This development including reliableand quality electric power for all parts of thecountry, which is vital for all the core sectors.

(4) Information and CommunicationTechnology:

It is one of our core competencies. It

can help industry and commerce, promoteeducation in remote areas, create massiveemployment and provide health care toremote areas, and

(5) Critical technologies and strategicindustries:

The progress in nuclear, space,ocean, defence and other frontiertechnologies will provide sustained growthand self-reliance for the nation.

These five areas are closely inter-related and lead to national, food andeconomic security. A strong partnershipamong the R&D, academy, industry, business

and the community as a whole with theGovernment departments and agencies willbe essential to accomplish the vision. Foreigninvestors and partners too have an importantrole to play.

Human Capital :

knowledge capital to harness theirenergy for transforming our nations intodeveloped nations. This transformation cantake place by providing competitive goods

and services to the international market. Howdo we transform our youth into a knowledgecapital? We need to have a multi-prongedapproach to upgrade the basic education,technical education and higher educationlevels of all the youth in our nation; infusetechnology and create value added productsusing our national core-competence andnatural resources and promote national andinternational markets and above all createlinkages between education, industry, R&D

and the economic system with welldeveloped countries.

Education :

We need a strategy for promoting theeducation level of the entire population in aphased manner. In the first phase we haveto increase the number of youth who

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complete high school education.Simultaneously, we have to increase thepercentage of youth who undergo vocationaltraining and diploma level education on

professional subjects. Parallely, we have toenhance the number of youth completinguniversity education in professional, science,management, commerce and arts courses.Students who are above High School levelcan be trained to move up the value chainlevel through skill enhancement byknowledge based training to meet the globalcompetition in the service sector,manufacturing sector and agricultural sector.The partnership of India with any of the

competitor can be in the form of exchangeof teachers, professors and work towardsproviding universal tele-education model andquality content for students living in remoteareas.

We also need to impartentrepreneurship training to our youth tomake them entrepreneurs who can takechallenges and risks to bring prosperity tothe nations. We need to create enablingenvironments for encouraging risk taking by

our youth.

Healthcare mission :

Various parts of the world are gettingaffected by HIV/AIDS in addition to othercommunicable diseases in poorer sectionsof the society. In addition, most bacteria oftraditional communicable diseases arebecoming resistant to earlier establishedmedicines. It is time that the national andinternational agencies join together to mount

a concerted programme in eliminating thesedreaded diseases from the planet earth. Itcan be a global mission with internationalagencies, WHO. India has already venturedinto the field of anti-AIDS vaccine and it is inthe stage of undergoing various tests. We arealso mounting programmes to eradicate thenew forms of earlier communicable diseaselike TB, waterborne & vector borne diseases.

Certainly we can progress the developmentfaster. Another area of cooperation andresearch is on stem cells for cardio vascular,diabetics and eye ailments.

In his book, India 2020: A Vision forthe New Millennium, Kalam says, It is notjust that the Indian nuclear tests are resented.If tomorrow Indian software export achievesa sizable share in the global market, weshould expect different types of reactions

Improved bilateral relations betweenIndia and China, which hold greatimportance for peace and stability in Asia,would facilitate the building of such a regional

organization.India-China relations will play a

critical role in ensuring peace and stabilityin Asia during the second quarter of thiscentury. The evolution of Indias GDP atpurchasing power parity and its powerpotential relative to Chinas.

There are three key issues that need tobe addressed.

First, a settlement of the India-China border.

Chinas willingness to accept a settlement.

Second, a credible policy regarding nuclearproliferation to countries ill disposed towardsIndia.

Third, a willingness to build new inclusiveregional economic organizations that givesIndia and other Asian countries their dueshare in economic power. A settlement ofthe border andremoval of

h i s t o r i c a lrestrictions andbarriers to trade ingoods andservices could formthe foundation forgood relations.

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FORECASTS ABOUT INDIA

FIRST IN POPULATION

India will be the first country in populationin 2050: 1.5 billion, more than China (1.4)

FIRST IN SCIENCE PRODUCTION

India will be the number one knowledgeproduction center of the world by 2020

A YOUNG GIANT

By 2015, over half of the Indian populationwill be less than 20 years old

LABOR PRODUCTIVITY

Working population will be growing overthe next 3 decades, giving India a sustainablecompetitive advantage in labor productivity.

HIGH GROWTH RATES

Officials say that the target is a GDPgrowth rate of 8% per year until 2007. Someanalysts believe that the GDP should evenbe approaching 10% growth rate, at least

over several 3 to 5 years periods.

BPO AND OFF-SHORING HUB

India has been able to create a world-class environment for BPO due to thecommitted, qualified and competent youthwho are IT savvy. As service institutionsdevelop further in India, the off shoring ofmany services to India, for example such asengineering design and medical basedservices, will develop in the near future.

THE DIASPORA ASSET

The Indian Diaspora, the so-calledbollystan, is Indian brain bank.

FIRST IN MIDDLE CLASS

50% of Indias population (around 600

million) will form the middle class in anotherdecade or so, a formidable market by anyyardsticks, larger than the US or Europe

GEO-POLICY

India, Brazil and South Africa are alreadylooking forward to forming a strategic goldentriangle.

Forthcoming Events

Swastha Bharat / Healthy India 2005

Premier Indian Exhibition & Conferencefocusing on the different part of ancientIndian system of medicine like Ayurveda,

Homeopathy, Naturopathy, Siddha Medicine,Unnani Medicine, Yoga etc.

Amazing Indian Education

New Knowledge Destination - AmazingIndian Education will showcase Indiascapabilities in the fields of Education andTraining, economic development, greatstrides made by India, demonstrate theachievements.

Global Food TechThe 5th Indian International Show on

Processed Food Industry. This Exhibition willsee the convergence of top buyers, decision

makers, and policy makers, Govt.Organizations all over the world. It willprovide a unique marketing opportunity tomake strategic alliances networking, transferof technology, Joint ventures

Now India and China are thinking of

joining the hands rather than competing witheach other. This is going to be long walk tofreedom from poverty. By this India willdefinitely become a developed nation in2020. But cleverness is not enough whatsneeded is wisdom.

The only Constant in Life is CHANGE!

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CAN INDIA BE AN ASIAN TIGER BY 2020?

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

India and China are two of the oldest and still extantcivilizations. For Europeans, they were legendary seats ofimmense wealth and wisdom right up to the eighteenthcentury.

Mughals invaded rich India many a times. There was a largeand vigorous skilled workforce turning out not just cotton but

luxury items for the barons, courts and ruling classes. Consequently, the economy produced a fabulous financialsurplus. For example, the

Annual revenues of the Moghul emperor Aurangzeb

(1659-1701) are said to have amounted to $450 million or morethan ten times those of his contemporary Louis XIV of France.According to an estimate of 1638, the Moghul court of India hadaccumulated a treasure equivalent to $1.5 billion.

By the early eighteenth century, India was the leadingManufacturing country in the world. Of course, manufacturingthen meant handloom textiles and handicrafts. The economistAngus Maddison states that India, at that time, had a 22.6 percent share of the worlds GDP.

In 1820, they had a combined

population in excess of half a billionand by 1900, 700million. Within thetwentieth century, their population hadtrebled. But they were also two of thepoorest countries, typically thought of aslocations of famine, disease,backwardness and superstition.

Sanjay Pandurang Shinde

Year 1000 1500 1600 1700India 29% 24% 23% 24%

China 23% 25% 29% 22%

Western Europe 9% 18% 20% 22%

GDP In % of WorldGDP In % of World

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And now economics experts andvarious studies conducted across theglobe foresee India and China to rule theworld in the 21st century. For over a century

the United States has been the largesteconomy in the world but majordevelopments have taken place in the worldeconomy since then, leading to the shift offocus from the US and the rich countriesof Europe to the two Asian giants- Indiaand China.

With this Background Can Indiasurpass China? If yes how is it going tohappen? What Strategy should India Adoptto be AN ASIAN TIGER by year 2020

This entire composition will throw light onthe same. As China Followed a path ofCapitalism through FDI, India have to havea solid strategy. Strategy to hit the higherGDP for next 20 years through harnessingthe global opportunities and managing thekey economic resources effectively.

Agriculture Be a Food Base for theWorld by producing the value added food,medicinal plant, aromatic oils & bio material

for the global market

Manufacturing Reforming the taxstructure and labor laws that will add to theexisting labor cost advantage & laborflexibility. Supporting with moderninfrastructure will positively affect the sector.

Infocomm A huge market potential willbe realized if the cost benefits of thetechnology are offered to customers. We arehaving natural advantage of huge talent pool,

which is technologically savvy and English-friendly.

Water & Energy Resource Effectivewater management will change thelandscape of agriculture, hydroelectric power.Exploration of oil and gas will alter theeconomics of the continent.

Investing in Physical And Professionalinfrastructure -The air ports, ports & harborsand roads need significant investment. Thewar of progress cannot be fought without

talent. Hence infrastructure is needed forprofessional resource development likeeducation & research.

Attracting the Global savings Weshould not be hesitant about FDI & unlockourselves for the same. We have to Harnessit with domestic savings and find the rightchannels to invest in areas, which willsupport the global leadership.

Creating a new World mind set It is

essential to adapt to knowledge explosion,living with continuous uncertainty in the newscenario. We must rediscover the hiddenpotential to innovate, create and collaborate.

The rule of survival says, The one whoexcuses himself, destroys himself. Indiais going to be economic super power by ourchoice and not mere chance. We have tokeep this in our minds and reach out forthe stars.

EVOLUTION

Can the vision 2020 of India as adeveloped nation by the year 2020 becalled Mission India? Probably yes. Moreso, if the policy initiatives of the kind taken in1991 economic liberalization continue to betaken. Only a few years back, a mood ofpessimism prevailed in the country. All thatchanged with the economic liberalizationof 1991, which unleashed forces ofdynamism that launched the Indian

economy on a healthy growth curve.Spectacular growth in some areas surprisedthe no Sayers and converted the prevailingpessimism into an infectious optimism, thusraising the Vision 2020 to the level of a nearcertainty.

The economic liberalization of the lastdecade was part of the global phenomenon

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from which the former socialistic economiesof the East reaped the most benefits. Thesebenefits materialized relatively slowly inthe Eastern Europe; faster in India; and

fastest in China. The difference in the speedand strength of the upsurge was aphenomenon of the local policies andpractices. It is now certain that India is on avisible path to progress towards the statusof a developed nation. Whether the nationcrawls, walks or runs towards it dependsupon the way the future progress isfuelled. Timely policy initiatives can work assynchronized pushes to the swing ensuringa speedy progress toward the cherished

goal.Government policies in post-

independence India were influenced by theperceived fear of economic strangulation ofthe poor by the rich. The enthusiasm tosafeguard against these fears resulted in theimplementation of policies, which, in manycases, became roadblocks in the path of asmooth progress. The results of the boldchanges in policy made during and after1991, however, prove that the economy is

capable of propelling itself at a muchfaster rate if the unnecessary barriers areremoved. The most potent outcome ofliberalization was the opening of a shelteredeconomy to global competition. It had amagical effect on the assimilation of newtechnologies without their feared harmfuleffects. This, in the process, disproved manywidely held myths. Introduction of computerswas feared to trigger a massive job loss, butit did not happen. Allowing easy conversion

of the currency was feared to trigger a flightof capital leading to a foreign exchange crisis,which did not happen either. What actuallyhappened was just the opposite. Instead offeared loss of jobs, the introduction ofcomputers and information technologybrought a ground swell of well paying IT jobs; instead of drying up the foreignexchange kitty, the economic liberalization

triggered an unparalleled growth in foreignexchange reserves. There is, thus, a clearcase for the identification and dismantlingof the remaining roadblocks, one by one.

But should India content with this? Is thisenough to call it an Asian Tiger?

SWOT ANALYSIS

What Does Tiger Mean?

Indias political, intellectual andbusiness leadership must work together toreach the goal - to win for India a placecommensurate with the hidden potential ofher people. This is why this theme is highlyinspiring. It is a MISSION. It reflects anirrepressible ambition: to take Indianenterprise to the top of the global ladder.

Consequently, my wish that India tobecome an economic super power is not onlyfor her own sake, but also for the benefit ofthe whole world. Unleashing Indias potentialis no doubt in our interest. But it is equally inthe interest of the whole world. We can graspthe vast untapped potential of our people ifwe clearly identify the decisive parameters

of what we want to achieve. Here is a view -Globalization, technology anddemography are altering strategicinternational balances.

Services of large segments of theworking population can now be easilysubstituted across national boundaries.There is a widening gap between those whohave the skills and mobility to flourish inglobal markets andthose who do

not have theseadvantages.Globalization isinsisting onefficiency andpromoting thespecialization.

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Globalization is ruthless in its demands.But it is equally generous in its rewards.

Technology has become the mostimportant driver of economic growth anddevelopment. Technologies that promoteefficiency and specialization are primarily inthe domains of information, communications,automation, robotics, biotechnology andadvanced materials.

Technology particularly inbiotechnology and infocomm, promises tospectacularly change life, living and livingsystems. At another level, technology iscreating new outlook of knowledge and

avenues for economic output. But thesetechnologies are the privilege of a fewcountries, such as the US, UK, Germany andJapan.

An aging population is slowlyweighing down the US, Europe and Japan.Today, approximately 20% of the Americanpopulation is above the age of 60. In 20 years

time, this number will increase to a quarterof the US population. Germany is worse off.Roughly, a quarter of the Germans are nowold. In 20 years, a third of them will be old.

The case of Japan is very comparable to thatof Germany.

While the world is getting older,India will continue to be young. By year

2010, India should add 83 million workersto global pool, and China 56 million. (Vs.13 Mn in US & 0.1Mn in Europe.)

SWOT ANALYSIS

Economic power is central to achieving prosperity in such a world. Thats what I mean by ASIAN TIGER.

STRENGTH WEAKNESSSolid History in software developmentEnglish Proficiency

Government SupportCost AdvantagesStrong Tertiary EducationProcess Quality FocusSkilled Workforce / DemographyExpertise in new technologiesEnterpreneurshipReasonable technical innovationsReverse brain drainExisting Long Term Relationship

Positioning & Brand ManagementInfrastructure

Cultural DifferencesSales & MarketingLeverage expertise for higher-value educationFear/Uncertainity from PakistanLegal SystemBureaucracyPoor globalsation skill

OPPORTUNITIES THREATSCreation of global brandsBPO & Call center offeringsResource Based SectorsChinese domestic & export marketLeverage relationship in Middle East marketsIndian Domestic Market Growth

Internal competition for resourcesOver promise / Under deliveryRegional Geo-political uncertainityRising Labor costCompetition from other countriesBlinding NationalismCorruption / Piracy / trustPolitical & religious instabilityOver Population

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WHAT SHOULD INDIA DO?

Aiming to be a global economicsuperpower is not a game of one-up-manship for India. It is important; ensuringstability, progress and prosperity in a rapidlychanging strategic global landscape.

What should India do to reach this goal?

1. Work out a feasible strategy for a highrate of growth

2. Harness global opportunities in importanteconomic sectors

3. Manage Key economic resourcesefficiently

4. Invest in important enablers of economicperformance

5. Recognize the global savings pool

TARGETING AGGRESSIVE GDP

Indias GDP is 659 Bn US dollars,is a fraction of the global GDP of about51.48 trillion US dollars. Given a populationdenominator of more than 1 billion peoplethe per capita income works out to 590 US

dollars. This is only about a tenth of theworlds average per capita income. It is alsoonly one fiftieth of the per capita income ofthe developed world.

If India has to attain globaleconomic leadership, growth rates haveto accelerate significantly to double digits- from about 6 to 7% now to about 12-15%per annum, year on year, for about twentyyears.

I am aware of the recent forecast byAllianz Group; they are forecasting not morethan 7 at least till year 2010.

GDP For Emerging Economies

0

3.5 3.54

9.1 98.5

7.57.37

6.5

5

8

7

66.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2003 2004 2005 2006-2010

YEAR

%

GDPGrowthin

BRAZIL CHINA RUSSIA INDIA

2004-2010 For ecast

GDP For Emerging Market in US $

0

500

1000

1500

2000

25003000

3500

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Year

US$InBn

BRAZIL CHINA RUSSIA INDIA

I know that experts have dismissedtargets of a high growth rate as unrealistic.But still I would like to submit, respectfully

but forcefully, that the depressing forecastof growth rates flows from incrementalthinking. We must break free from the mouldof thinking about growth in an incrementalmanner. It limits our capacity toconceptualize growth and progress on alarge, beat the world format. Newmanagement styles have put classicalmanagement on the shelf. We need similartransformation ine c o n o m i c

thinking. TheIndian intellectmust break freefrom ane v o l u t i o n a r ymindset. It mustc o n c e p t u a l i z einitiatives in all

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% Contribution In GDP

25%

26%

49%

Agriculture Industrial Service

spheres in a revolutionary manner.

Show me how we can translate thisinto action? You may ask. As my responseto this question, let me present concreteexamples of opportunities that are availablein the different sectors for achieving ourgoals.

HARNESSING GLOBAL OPPORTUNITIES

Food and Agriculture

Lets start with food and agriculture.Latest available statistics show thatcurrently the agricultural sectorcontributes 25%; the industrial sector 26%

and the service sector 49% to the nationalGDP. In popular saying, however, Indianeconomy is still called an agriculturaleconomy despite the fact that this sectorcontributes the least to the GDP, percentagewise. This notion prevails because 65% ofthe population has a rural base withagriculture as its only vocation. This majority65% agriculture-oriented portion of thepopulation contributes only 25% to thenational income while 75% of the national

income comes from the minority 35% of thepopulation engaged in the industrial and theservice sectors. In other words, the extra40% of the manpower engaged inagriculture is underemployed due to thegreat rural-urban divide.

In the developed world, specificallyin the USA, the agricultural sector contributesonly 2% to the GDP with less than 3% of thework force engaged in that sector. Rest of

the US national income, to the tune of 98%,is accounted for by the industrial and theservice sectors.

Judging by other indicators ofproductivity, China is not that far ahead. Theproportion of irrigated land in agriculture isonly 16 per cent higher in China. Grosscropped area under food crops was,however, 30 per cent lower, although yieldwas 2.87 times higher. Agricultural valueadded per agricultural worker is just 17 percent more in China. While commercialenergy use per capita in kg of oilequivalent is almost double in China, theefficiency in its use measured by its ratio

to G DP is surprisingly higher in India. Thisobtains despite China having 2.35 times moreof scientists and engineers in R&D activitiesthan India. It is clear that if productivity inagriculture is systematically raised in India,the food gap cannot only be closed, but Indiacan surpass China.

India has about 13 percent of theworlds arable land, receives 4% of theworlds annual fresh water supply throughrainfall each year, is blessed with twelvemajor river basins, has a wide range ofagro climatic conditions and has a largenumber of scientific and technologicalresources devoted to this sector.

But Indian agriculture is still hangingaround in the low end of the agronomy valuechain. It is a victim of the low-investment, low-yield, water-inefficient model of farming. Wehave to change this scenario. This will requirethe use of modern farming methods and plant

biotechnology, diversifying the crop mix awayfrom rice and wheat and moving up the valuechain into food processing. Israels food andagricultural output, valued at 4 billion USdollars, is produced on just one million acresof very dry land.

India has 400 million acres ofirrigated land and 75 million acres of

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wasteland at its disposal. Why cant Indiaimprove its productivity thirteen times toproduce 1,900 billion US dollars of output? Irefuse to accept that the Indian farmer is

deficient in any way, when compared toothers. In fact, he is very hard working.

Also, he has convincinglydemonstrated the ability to adopt andpractice modern-farming technologies. If theMiddle East is the energy base for the world,why cant India be the food base for theworld? If the Middle East can make valueadded petrochemicals from hydrocarbonsfor the global markets, why cant Indiaproduce value added food, medicinal

plants, aromatic oils and biomaterials forthe global markets? Of course, realizing thisvision calls for several radical initiatives.These include, reforming agriculturallandholding laws, instituting a market-basedprocurement price system and allowing thebarrier-free movement of food produceacross India and to the world.Simultaneously, we must safeguard theinterests of Indian farmers and give them alevel playing field.

Therefore, we must lobby for theremoval of huge subsidies provided toagriculture in the US and Europe and forunrestricted integration of our producewith retail markets in the world.

Manufacturing

India is richly endowed with naturalresources and human capital. Inherentcapital in the country has to be better utilizedfor higher growth. Macro economic

changes are always dynamic in nature. Achange in a sector influences changes in allother sectors. There is a significantopportunity for consolidating theseadvantages initially and later progressing tovalue added products. We have to beglobally competitive by achieving cost-effectiveness, brand performance & JIT

delivery.

Our base level industries such astextiles, clothing, metalworking andconsumer products, require minimum skills.This is globally a 700 billion US dollarssegment. Industries such as office machinesas well as electrical and electronicequipment, require simple skills, andcomprise globally a one trillion US dollarssegment.

Industries such as aluminum andautomobiles enjoy a huge domesticmarket combined with cost advantages.These can catapult India into the league

of global players.These industries are valued at 3

trillion US dollars at the global level.

For this, the Indian manufacturingindustry has to carefully target the exportmarkets, focus on scale, technology andcustomer needs, improve efficiency acrossthe supply chain and move away fromcontrolling all activities in the value chain.

A concrete example is the export

performance of Reliance Industries Limitedin the manufacturing sector. Exports forReliance have grown dramatically from Rs366 crores in 1997-98 to Rs 11,200 crores in2001-02, thirty fold increase in just four years.It also calls for an understanding betweenindustry and labour.

Only in such a conduciveenvironment, can wefind solutions tothe problems indiverse areassuch as: indirecttaxes, labor laws,bureaucracy andinfrastructure.

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A climate of trust would give the

government the courage to support selectedsectors aggressively. It can join hands withthem to ensure that they reorient theirmanufacturing skills for global economicleadership.

Infocomm

It is the most important sector, giventhe context of the ongoing information age.An overarching infocomm infrastructurewill prepare India to get into the shroud ofleadership in knowledge intensivebusinesses. It will enable India to harnessthe potential of millions of young men andwomen. It will create a huge job bank. Itwill provide the knowledge workers with aplatform to develop and offer IT solutionsfor all professions and institutions acrossthe world.

The recent deregulation with unre-stricted entry in the sector is enabling Indiacreate the next generation communication in-frastructure. It shows how the spirit of part-nership between the government and busi-ness can help us in realizing Indias poten-

tial. But we cannot forget that the customeris the third pivot of a triangular partnershipin infocomm sector.

This sector will grow rapidly only ifthe industry offers to the people thebenefits of technology, if the services areof high quality at an affordable cost. Asper the projections, the number of voice linesin India in the next five years will increase bythe same quantity as in the last fifty years. Itwill cost one fourth. This will benefitconsumers. India is currently worlds 13 th

largest market for mobile & is forecast toquadruple in size to take third place with 117

million mobile subscribers by 2009.

India has natural advantages ininfocomm sector that most other countriesin East Asia will never be able to match - itshuge pool of relatively low cost labour,which is educated, technologically savvyand English-friendly. India is home to600,000 software developers, which would

TELEDENSITY IN YEAR 1991

35%

41%

2%

22%

Europe America Asia-Pacific Africa & Arab States

TELEDENSITY IN YEAR 2003

41%

6%

31%

22%

Eu ro pe A me ric a A s ia -Pa cif ic A f ric a & A r ab S ta te s

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grow to three million in five years. In theinfocomm sector, India has the potentialto power the entire intellectual systemsand applications in the connected world.

Health Care and Life Sciences

This is another sector, which offers agreat opportunity for India. Twentieth centurywas the century of physics and chemistry.The twenty first century is the century ofbiology. Today, mankind is usingbiotechnologies to understand, alter anddirect the function of a wide set of organiccells - in plants, animals and humans. It ispredicted by the year 2025, gene therapies

will become available for every majorconceivable disease.Artificial assist deviceswill take over diseased liver and pancreaticfunctions.

Individualized medicine will bedeveloped on the basis of each personsgenetic make up. Genetic manipulation willalter human traits. Biotechnology is alsomoving towards decoding the library ofproteins in the body. This will enable makingto alter the very metabolism of life processes.

Biotechnology can impact every one of the6 billion people in the world today.

It will also stimulate the internationaleconomy in a very big way. It is estimatedthat the global life sciences market will bein the order of USD 2 trillion in the nextfive years.

Reliance, have taken concretemeasures to explore this exciting area.Reliance Life Sciences is developing

business opportunities in the domains ofmedical biotechnology, plant biotechnology,industrial biotechnology, contract researchand clinical trials.

India has everything going for it inhealth care-competent doctors, strongnursing skill sets, a resurgent pharmaceuticalindustry, strong chemistry-based drug

discovery capabilities and a modest, butgrowing, breed of medical biologists. Indiacan provide a whole range of services,from medical transcription to telemedicine

through a modern information andcommunication infrastructure. India cangrow as a leading health care provider tothe world.

MANAGING KEY ECONOMICRESOURCES

To be a global economic power, Indianeeds to manage its critical economicresources very well. Water and energy at thetop of first of critical resources.

Water Resources

When we talk about food andagriculture sector, it cannot be withoutaddressing the question of waterresources. Technology has advanced tosuch an extent that, the only limiting factorto agriculture is water.

India receives about 4,000 billioncubic meters of fresh water every year. Ofthis, 3,600 billion cubic meters is through

rainfall. About half the rainfall runs off therivers. Of the remaining water, only 1,100billion cubic meters is put to productive use.This is because of topographical constraintsand the uneven distribution of waterresources over space and time. Waterstorage in dams is limited to 250 billion cubicmeters. It is grossly insufficient. Incomparison, the US has three times thisstorage capacitywith a

c o m p a r a b l eflow. Only halfthe storage andi r r i g a t i o npotential of damsis utilized. Furtheronly half the waterfrom the main

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sources reaches farms due to evaporationlosses and seepage.

The hydroelectric potential isgrossly underutilized. Irrigation systems areoutdated and inefficient. .India is forecastedto face water scarcity by the year 2020. It isnecessary to invest heavily in twenty yearsfor the development of water resources. Inbrief, water should not be viewed only asa resource necessary for sustainingagriculture. It is also vital for buildingeconomic power. We need bold initiativesin this area.

We have to link all the river water

basins, build a number of large dams,privatize the operations and maintenanceof irrigation and water supply systems andmandate the recycling of water.

Energy

Water is not important only fromagriculture point of view but equallyimportant for energy sector. It leads tohydroelectric power. There is a hugepotential; waiting to be converted into

performance. India can easily increase itshydroelectric production capacity seven-fold to about 40,000 MW, primarily in theNorth East. This calls for regionalcooperation with Nepal and Bhutan. Thispower base can lead to significantcompetitive advantages for Indian industrythrough a relatively lower cost of energy.

Few years back Reliance announcedthe largest ever gas find in India in threedecades, with in place reserves of 7 trillion

cubic feet. This is an outcome of exploring just 2,000 square kilometers in the deepwaters of the Bay of Bengal. We still haveabout 175,000 square kilometers to explore.India is a largely under explored territoryin oil and gas. But we have to change thissituation. Reliance as well as othercompanies are prospecting for oil and gas

on land and also in the shallow waters anddeep waters of India.

An energy self-sufficient India can

alter the economic, political andmanufacturing landscape of the region.

India has already started consideringnew projects for linking electricity grids,building gas pipelines, promoting regionalhydroelectric stations. But also push thestockpiling oil on a cooperative basis andpursuing nuclear energy options. Inessence, the face of energy in India is setto change, bringing with it newopportunities for supporting the countrys

bid for achieving global economicleadership.

INVESTING IN PERFORMANCEENABLERS

Another important mission for globaleconomic leadership for India is the need tomake significant investments ininfrastructure. It does not talk only aboutphysical but also intellectualinfrastructure. Critical areas in physical

infrastructure are power, transportation,communications and the financialmarkets. The vital segments of theintellectual infrastructure are : professionalresource development, high qualityeducation and constructive research.

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Physical Infrastructure

Enterprises in India have expressedmany a times about the sorry state of thephysical infrastructure. In transportation,some commendable initiatives have alreadybeen taken in the road sector (Like GoldenQuadrangle), with the major cities beinglinked through nation-wide networks. Resultsare expected in the next few years. However,significant investments are required in thelong neglected area of rural roads, ports,harbors, and airports.

Professional Resources Development

This is a neglected portion so far &

needs more attention. World is facing twowars. The war for progress and the warfor talent. Those who have none will fight forone. Those who have will fight the other.While India fights the war for economicprogress, it has the unique opportunity togain from the war for talent by building upits professional resources. As mentioned,an aging population in the US. Europe andJapan means a decline in their workforce andtalent. The US is already facing a shortage of

skilled professionals. This will be furtherstress.

Over the next 10 to 15 years, theprofessional workforce shortage in the USwill peak to 15 million; Europe will see ashortfall of a million professionals ininformation technology alone. Germany isalready facing a shortfall of about 200,000engineers. China is estimated to needupwards of 1.4 million managementgraduates. Japan, Australia, Malaysia,

Singapore and New Zealand are forecastinglarge shortages of professional talent.

This shortage will last at least tillthe middle of this century. Warning bellsof a talent scarcity are ringing loud andclear. Demography has been kind to India.India has a young population. Just 7% of

Indians are above the age of 60. India hasa large pool of scientific, technical andprofessional talent. Thanks to the visionaryleadership of post-Independent India, the

educational and professional infrastructurebuilt in the past has served us well so far.

The Indian professional has provencreativity, adaptability and a spirit ofinitiative.

Unfortunately the professionaltalent base in India is limited to an elitegroup of 5.5 million people.

Education

Developing professional resourceson a large scale requires significantinvestments in education. Education is keyfor global leadership because knowledgehas become the single most importanteconomic resource today.

India spends just 3.2% of its GDPon education. In contrast, progressivenations are investing heavily in education,in the range of 8% of GDP. Indiasinvestment in education, in relation to GDP,

is lower than the world average of 4.8% .It isalso below those of low-income countries,whose average is 3.3%.

After referring the above charts, wewill realize that the numbers of engineersavailable are much ahead than that of anycountry, in spite of the adversities. Imaginewhat miracle we can do if the situationimproves. To tacklewith the huger e s o u r c e sneeded for thissector publicfunding should beconcentrated onschool education.Private initiativeshould beencouraged in higher

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education, particularly in science andtechnology. Allowing the private sector todevelop universities in science andtechnology would be an appropriate policy

measure in this field. Supports for educationfrom the corporate houses will help tochange the scenario. Also we can make itglobally acceptable by introducing marketdriven courses.

Research

Progressive nations are spendingsignificantly on scientific research.

Sweden spends about 8 billion USdollars, which is 3.8% of its GDP, onresearch and tops the list. America is nextwith 208 billion US dollars, which is about 2.6% of its GDP. In contrast, Indias expenditureis very low at 3 billion US dollars or 0.73%of its GDP. During the period 1963 to 1998,India obtained just 700 US patents. This is

just 0.02% of the 2.8 million US patentsissued. India has already shown shades ofprowess in leveraging research in two areas- nuclear energy and space. India has

secured a place for herself in these areas inthe global club. This has become possiblebecause there was a mission-orientedapproach.

Integrating efforts across severalinstitutions have earned us impressiverewards.

A similar effort is now called for,particularly in the areas of life sciences,materials sciences, ocean engineering,

aerospace.ACCESSING THE GLOBAL SAVINGSPOOL

So far, India has dependedsubstantially on domestic savings. Thescale of investment needed to make Indiainto an economic superpower cannot beachieved by persisting on that route.

And why should we? The riches ofthe world have resulted from the transfer of

wealth from poor colonies .The latter nowhave a legitimate right to ensure that at leasta part of it flows back. We must not beapprehensive of foreign investment. Onthe contrary, India must compete for asizeable chunk of foreign direct investmentswithout any sense of guilt or fear.

The world saves and invests about7 trillion US dollars. About 300 billion USdollars out of this flows as foreign directinvestments or FDI.

India has, on an average, attractedFDI of only 5.6 billion US dollars recently.Chinas is at around 55 Bn USD.Otheremerging markets such as Brazil, Poland andMalaysia, have attracted much more andhave benefited by higher GDP growth. TheirFDI as a percentage of GDP is in the 3 to 6

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% range, while for India it is just nearing1%.

India can easily achieve six times itscurrent FDI and attract 30 billion US dollarseach year, if appropriate policy measures aretaken. This can help in improving the GDPgrowth rate by 2% each year.

Only creating a very high rate ofeconomic growth can create global savingspool. This will be evident if you carefully studythe pattern of flow of foreign investment. Wehave to believe in the proverb money chasesmoney.

Therefore, the best way to attract

very high amounts of foreign investmentsis to target and achieve very higheconomic growth rates.

Changing the mindset For FDIIndia cannot hope to attain global leadershipwith an antiquated mindset.

We are in a world where the rules ofsurvival and progress are changing.

In a nutshell, India has to access

global savings through FDI, fully harnessdomestic savings and find the rightchannels to invest in areas that supportglobal leadership.

CAN INDIA OVERTAKE CHINA?

APPROACH

Before commenting anything on this,we should understand certain facts. Whatsthe fastest route to economicdevelopment? Welcome foreign direct

investment (FDI), says China, and mostpolicy experts agree. But a comparison withlong-time laggard India suggests that FDI isnot the only path to prosperity. Indeed,Indias homegrown entrepreneurs maygive it a long-term advantage over a Chinahamstrung by inefficient banks and capitalmarkets.

That is because Chinas export-ledmanufacturing boom is largely a creationof foreign direct investment (FDI), whicheffectively serves as a substitute for

domestic entrepreneurship. During the last20 years, the Chinese economy has takenoff, but few local firms have followed, leavingthe countrys private sector with no world-class companies to rival the bigmultinationals.

DIASPORAS

India has not attracted anywhere nearthe amount of FDI that China has. But theFDI gap is also a tale of two Diasporas. China

has a large and wealthy Diaspora that haslong been eager to help the motherland,and its money has been warmly received.By contrast, the Indian Diaspora was, at leastuntil recently, resented for its success andmuch less willing to invest back home. NewDelhi took a dim view of Indians who hadgone abroad, and of foreign investmentgenerally, and instead provided a morenurturing environment for domesticentrepreneurs.

It has long been an article of faith thatChina is on the faster track, and the economicdata bear this out. However, thestatistics tellonly part of the story-the macroeconomicstory. At the micro level, things look quitedifferent. There, India displays every bit asmuch dynamism as China. Indeed, byrelying primarily on organic growth, Indiais making fuller use of its resources andhas chosen a paththat may well

deliver mores u s t a i n a b l eprogress thanChinas FDI-drivenapproach . CanIndia surpassChina ? is nolonger a silly

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question, and, if it turns out that India hasindeed made the wiser bet, the implications-for Chinas future growth and for how policyexperts think about economic development

generally-could be enormous.

THE STIFLING STATE

The fact that India is increasinglybuilding from the ground up while Chinais still pursuing a top-down approachreflects their contrasting politicalsystems: India is a democracy, and Chinais not. But the different strategies are also afunction of history. As of the late 1990s,according to the International Finance

Corporation, more than two dozenindustries, including some of the mostimportant and lucrative sectors of theeconomy-banking, telecommunications,highways, and railroads-were still off-limitsto private local companies. Beijing is stillnot willing to give up its control over thelargest ones, such as China Telecom. Areport issued in 2000 by the ChineseAcademy of Social Sciences concluded that, The legal, policy, and marketenvironment is unfair and inconsistent.

THE MOGUL AS A HERO

For democratic, postcolonial India,allowing foreign investors huge profits atthe expense of indigenous firms is simplyunfeasible. Recall, for instance, thecontroversy that erupted a decade ago whenthe Enron Corporation made a deal with thestate of Maharashtra to build a $2.9 billionpower plant there. The project proceeded,but only after several years of acrimonious

debate over foreign investment and its rolein Indias development.

While China has created obstaclesfor its entrepreneurs, India has beenmaking life easier for local businesses Asa consequence, entrepreneurship andfree enterprise are flourishing.A measure

of the progress : In a recent survey of leading Asian companies by the Far EasternEconomic Review (FEER), India registereda higher average score than any other

country in the region. Indeed, only twoChinese firms had scores high enough toqualify for Indias top 10 lists.The latestentrant to this club, of course, is the UBGroup which, with the acquisition of ShawWallace, has become the second-largestliquor company in the world after Diageo.With sales of 2.16m motorcycles a year inthe first 10 months of FY05, Hero Honda isset to end this fiscal as the largest two-wheeler company in the world for the

fourth year in succession.Similarly, Essel Propack is the

worlds largest manufacturer of laminatedtubes that are used to package toothpastes,cosmetics, drugs, and food. With a globalmarket share of more than 30%, thecompany has manufacturing facilities inChina, the US, Germany, Mexico, Colombia,Venezuela, Philippines, Indonesia, Egypt andNepal, apart from India.

LEGAL SYSTEMS

But democracy, traditions ofentrepreneurship, and a decent legalsystem have given India the foundationnecessary for free enterprise to flourish. Although Indias courts are notoriouslyinefficient, they at least comprise afunctioning independent judiciary. Propertyrights are not fully secure, but the protectionof private ownership is certainly farstronger than in China. The rule of law, a

legacy of British rule, generally prevails.CORPORATE GOVERNANCE

In a World Bank study published lastyear, only 52 percent of the Indian firmssurveyed reported problems obtainingcapital, versus 80 percent of the Chinesecompanies polled. As a result, the Indian

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firms relied much less on internally generatedfinances: Only 27 percent of their fundingcame through operating profits, versus 57percent for the Chinese firms.

Corporate governance hasimproved dramatically, thanks in no small partto Murthy, who has made Infosys a paragonof honest accounting and an example forother firms. In a survey of 25 emerging marketeconomies conducted in 2000 by CreditLyonnais Securities Asia, India ranked sixthin corporate governance, China 19th.

MIS ALLOCATION OF RESOURCES

Indias annual growth rate is only

around 20 percent lower than Chinas is, then,a remarkable achievement. And, of course,whether the data for China are accurate is anopen question. The speed with which Indiais catching up is due to its own efficientdeployment of capital and Chinasinefficiency, symbolized by all the moneythat has been frittered away on SOEs. AndChinas misallocation of resources is likelyto become a big drag on the economy inthe years ahead.

BANKING SECTORS

In the early 1990s, when China wasregistering double-digit growth rates, Beijinginvested massively in the state sector. Mostof the investments were not commerciallyviable, leaving the banking sector with a hugenumber ofnon-performing loans-possiblytotaling as much as 50 percent of bankassets.At some point, the capitalization costsof these loans will have to be absorbed, either

through write-downs (which meansdepositors bear the cost) or recapitalizationof the banks by the government, whichdiverts money from other, more productiveuses. This could well limit Chinas futuregrowth trajectory. Indias economy is thusanchored on more solid footing.

Consider the contrasting strategies of

Jiangsu and Zhejiang, two coastal provincesthat were at similar levels of economicdevelopment when Chinas reforms began.Jiangsu has relied largely on FDI to fuel its

growth. Zhejiang, by contrast, has placedheavier emphasis on indigenousentrepreneurs and organic development.During the last two decades, Zhejiangseconomy has grown at an annual rate ofabout 1 percent faster than Jiangsus. Twentyyears ago, Zhejiang was the poorer of thetwo provinces ; now it is unquestionably moreprosperous. India may soon have the bestof both worlds : It looks poised to reapsignificantly more FDI in the coming years

than it has attracted to date.China and India have pursued

radically different development strategies.India is not outperforming China overall, butit is doing better in certain key areas. Thatsuccess will enable it to catch up with andperhaps even overtake China. Should thatprove to be the case, it will not onlydemonstrate the importance ofhomegrown entrepreneurship to long-termeconomic development; it will also show

the limits of the FDI-dependent approachChina is pursuing.

STRATEGIES AND RECOMMANDATIONS

In conclusion, I would stronglyadvocate that India needs a bold newvision and a feasible action plan to be aglobal economic superpower.A vision andan action plan that is regenerative. Thatrevives, renewsand revitalize

up the country.We must

i n t e r n a l i z evalues thatbenchmark withthe world. We mustadapt and adoptnew practices that

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embrace the world. Based on our abovedetailed discussion of several key themes,India needs to work on followingstrategies to accelerate its growth trend.

1. Develop Human Capital

2. Augment Savings Rate Through FiscalReforms

3. Increase in Capital AccumulationThrough FDI and Privatization

4. Kick-start Investments in Infrastructure

5. Reform Tax Structure

6. Improve Labour Flexibility

7. Decentralize

1. Develop Human Capital

While India has been successful increating an educated work force for thetertiary sector, primary level educationstill needs to be improved. Thegovernment has already taken a number ofmeasures in this area recently. Whileenrolment for primary education hasimproved significantly, there is still a high

incidence of dropouts. In 2000-01 about 53%of primary school students dropped out ofschool. Apart from increasing the focus onprimary education, we think the governmentneeds to complement this with programsthat help train the work force.

2. Augment Savings Rate ThroughFiscal Reforms

Indias savings rate is still lower thanfor most other Asian economies. One of the

key reasons for the high growth in Asia (excl.Japan and India) has been the averagesavings rate of around 35% of GDP in the1990s. In India, the savings rate hasaveraged at 24% of GDP for the past 10years, restricting total capital formation. Evenif Indias average incremental capital outputratio (ICOR) improves to about 4% from 4.4

currently, it is difficult to see sustained GDPgrowth of above 6.5% unless the savingsrate increases.

3. Increase in Capital AccumulationThrough FDI and Privatization

As efforts to improve the domesticsavings rate are critical, attracting foreigndirect investment and privatization by wayof selling stakes in SOEs to foreign investorscan also augment fixed investment. Total FDIas a proportion of GDP is significantlylower in India than in China, averaging lessthan 1% of GDP over the past three yearscompared with 3.9% in China. Indias

average share of global FDI inflows over thepast three years is a mere 0.9%, comparedwith 10.2% for China. Although thegovernment has opened many sectors toFDI, we need to improve the overall businessenvironment.

4. Kick-start Investments inInfrastructure

Since the liberalization effort wasstarted in 1991, the government has pulled

back from investing in infrastructure,assuming that the private sector willparticipate. However, it is unlikely to happenin the medium term. In addition, rebuildinginfrastructure on a nationwide basis may takelonger. Therefore, in the near term, thegovernment could partially address thisissue by developing special economiczones at strategic locations with world-class infrastructure. Investment ininfrastructure sectors needs to be increasedto at least 9% of GDP (about US$65 billion)

from about 6% currently to sustain GDPgrowth of 7%.

5. Reform Tax Structure

Indian tax rates are currentlyamong the highest in emergingeconomies. In todays fast-globalizing world,where all countries reduce import tariff

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barriers, India still has inter-state trade taxes.This is high time India needs to move to aconsolidated value-added tax, instead ofmultiple point and multiple rate production

and sales taxes. Moreover, indirect taxes areinherently regressive and affect productivityadversely. Hence, there is a need to improvethe compliance of direct taxes to reduce thepressure on collecting higher indirect taxesthrough high rates. Regarding VAT alreadythe steps are taken.

6. Improve Labour Flexibility

Indias labour laws remain restrictive.These laws are effectively working only for

the protection of the labour employed in theorganized sector, which accounts for only10% of the total work force. In fact, to avoidthese restrictive laws, a large majority offactories use casual labor. Factories preferto employ people on contract instead oftaking them directly onto their payroll. Thereis an urgent need to relax labor laws toenable flexibility of labour.

7. Decentralize

China may have traditionally beena centralized economy; it is currentlyoperating in a completely decentralizedstructure. State governments activelycompete with each other in wooing foreigndirect and domestic private investment,ensuring a progressive businessenvironment. In India decentralization ofauthority and responsibility is crucial toencourage reform.

We have enjoyed global leadership

in the past. We led the world in thought,word and deed. We had the worlds firstuniversity at Takshashila in 700 BC. We hada global university in Nalanda in the 4thcentury. We were far ahead of othercivilizations in medicine and surgery 2,500years ago. We led the world in astronomyand mathematics. We showed the world

how to navigate. We created footprints acrossthe world through merchandise and trade.Our textile industry was a world leader inthe 17th and 18th centuries. Above all, we

were a global economic power at the turnof the eighteenth century, contributing toa quarter of the global output. We mustseek inspiration from our past, strideopportunities of the present and secure aglorious future-as a superpower in the globaleconomic order.

Twenty years from now we will bemore disappointed by the things that wedid not do than that ones we did do. Letus forge a partnership of men and women

who govern, who think, who producewealth and those who labour. Such acreative partnership will unleash the vastlatent energies of our 1 billion people. Itwill enable them scale the highest peak tomake India an economic superpower. I amsure we will succeed and will do India proud.

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www.google.com

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www.indianchild.com

www.frontlineonnet.com

www.cia.gov - The world fact book

www.aucegypt.edu

www.reach.com

www.allianzgroup.com

www.imf.org

www.ficci.com

www.economictimes.com

www.saag.orgwww.ibef.org

www.worldbank.org

www.timesofindia.com