calstart electric utility fleet managers conference
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Bill Van Amburg, CALSTART Senior VP, presentation at Electric Utility Fleet Managers Conference (EUFMC) June 23 in Williamsburg, VATRANSCRIPT
Climate Change, Carbon FootprintHow Fleets Can Prepare for and Prosper from Change
Clean Transportation Solutions SM
Advanced Transportation Technologies
Bill Van AmburgSenior Vice President
EUFMC Conference – Williamsburg, VAJune 23, 2009
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Don’t Blink: the World is Rapidly Changing
“…the first car driven by a child born today could be powered by hydrogen, and pollution-free.” President Bush, 2003
"We asked ourselves, 'Is it likely in the next 10 or 15, 20 years that we will covert to a hydrogen car economy?' The answer, we felt, was 'no.'" Energy Secty Chu, 2009
• Same challenges, different conclusions
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Plan Beyond the Roller Coaster
• Fuel prices are increasing over time and it is unlikely we will “go back”
$2.70
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Start with the Basics
• Keep these thoughts in your mind:– Burning one gallon of diesel releases more
than 22 pounds of CO2 into the atmosphere– Burning one gallon of gasoline releases nearly
20 pounds of CO2 into the atmosphere
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Find Combination Strategies
Air QualityAir Quality
ClimateClimate ChangeChangeEnergy SecurityEnergy Security
We must find solutions that
address all three
competing needs
Integrated Solutions Needed
There is no one “Silver Bullet” solution
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Agenda
• Recent Activities and Opportunities in Transportation
• Trends & Drivers of Change in Transportation
• The Fuel, Emissions and Climate Challenge – and Opportunity
• Your “Fuel” Footprint is Your Carbon Footprint – Addressing Your Fleet– The Four Steps
• Biofuel Questions and Status• Technology & Fuel Options
• Summary
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Mission Statement
CALSTART is a unique national, non-profit, member-supported organization dedicated to the growth of an advanced transportation technologies industry that will:
• Create high-quality jobs;• Clean the air;• Reduce dependence on foreign oil; and• Prevent global warming
Copyright CALSTART 2009
CALSTART: A Strategic Broker for Advanced Transportation
National and International in Project Areas
2009130+ Worldwide Member
Network
4 Offices in US
Four focus areas:Tech CommercializationFleet, Port ConsultingIndustry ServicesPolicy Development
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Unified Hybrid Industry in DC
• CALSTART, HTUF and 9 major companies – including all truck makers - outline status, benefits and needs of hybrid trucks
• Joint call for federal assistance for:
– Purchase incentives
– Broader fleet demonstrations and
– Long term R&D investment
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Briefing on Status, Benefits and Needs of Industry
Rep. Roscoe Bartlett (MD)Rep. Charlie Dent (PA)
from left:Bill Van Amburg, CALSTARTPaul Skalny, US Army-NACVictoria Mills, Environmental Defense FundJohn Formisano, FedEx ExpressMarcy Lowe, Duke University CGGC
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Duke Study Finds “Strategic US Opportunity” in Hybrid Tech
• Hybrid technology represents a competitive advantage to the US
• Other countries have worked on the technology – the pace of change and momentum is currently highest in US
• The hybrid truck supply chain now represents a growing national industry – touching jobs in more than 30 states
• Duke study shows there are regional “hot spots” for technology manufacturers and their suppliers – can benefit regions hurt by economy
• Industry shows great promise for creating green energy jobs
• Further commercialization requires government support, partnership to assist truck purchase and develop next technologies
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Duke Hybrid Industry Map
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Hybrid Truck & Bus Voucher Incentive Program (HVIP)
• Under AQIP 09/10 funds, CARB proposing a simplified purchase voucher for hybrids
• $25M in funds• Fleets would qualify
for voucher via purchase order; paid on delivery of and payment for truck(s)
• Voucher reduces purchase price of hybrid (no waiting)
• Reduces incremental cost by ~50%
Copyright CALSTART 2009
• CARB staff worked to craft extremely simple program – incentive targets half the incremental cost of today’s hybrids
• If successful, plans are for multi-year program but incentive may drop in future years
• CARB Board approved April 24
Hybrid Truck & Bus Voucher Incentive Program (HVIP)
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Federal Hybrid Truck Tax Credit Extension Proposal - DRAFT
Vehicle Weight
Demonstrated Fuel Economy Gain
10% 15% 20% 30% 40% 50%10,001 – 14,000 lb
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
14,001 – 33,000 lb
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
33,000 – 66,000 lb
$25,000 $30,000 $35,000
>66,001 lb truck
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
*Tax Credit capped at 20,000 per Original Equipment Manufacturer over life of the creditMore valuable credits offered to less vehicles to drive early adoptionLarger amounts at heaviest weights because of great difficulty of reaching these efficiency levels; fuel efficiency beyond aerodynamics and tires
Amounts correspond to roughly half the incremental cost of current tech
Provisional: Recommended by Incentives WG – being discussed with policy makers
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Stimulus/Recovery Bill Targets $1.5B+ for Clean Vehicles, Fuels
• Major funding for clean transportation in bill – most in a generation!
• CALSTART and HTUF have recommended language to encourage rapid use of funds for deployments
• Funding for transportation includes:– $300M for Diesel Emission Reduction
(DERA) activities through EPA– $300M for Alternative Fuel Vehicles,
Infrastructure through Clean Cities/DOE– $400M for electric drive demonstrations – $300M for fed govt clean fleet purchase – Additional $3.2B for Energy Efficiency projects that may include
transportation– Additional $2B for advanced energy storage manufacturing
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Trends & Drivers of Change• ENERGY SECURITY: FUEL SUPPLY AND COSTS –
Traditional fuel supplies/refining capacity barely meeting current demand– The need for biofuels is increasing but so are questions about their impacts/benefits– RFS2 rules at federal level – Biofuels grow as fuel blends; 2nd gen biofuels emerging– Rise of non-traditional hydrocarbons possible – but have serious impacts– Regional fuel variation and choice becoming more prevalent– Alternatives becoming economically competitive with petroleum but have own costs
• GLOBAL WARMING – Push to reduce GHGs intensifying and pushing fuel economy – focus and urgency increasing in 2009
– EPA now says GHG is a health danger – can regulate under clean air act– California CO2 tailpipe rules likely to be approved by new EPA– CAFÉ revised to match CA CO2 rules: CAFÉ for med & heavy trucks under study– States/communities remain GHG leaders – Calif AB 32 increases momentum– Several climate change bills now in Congress (Summer 2009) – law in 2010?– Energy efficiency reduces GHG impact; Fuel switching and blending reduces GHG
impact; Modal split (transit and rail) has long term role• EMISSIONS REDUCTIONS – World population increasingly urban
and world emission standards increasingly move to CA/Euro standards– EU and US may align in 2012-2015 timeline– Fine particulates (nano particles) will be of increasing concern from combustion– Diesel fuel still challenged in dirtiest regions (ports, Southern California)
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Peak Oil Advocates : ‘Cheap Gas Won’t Last’
• Despite declining prices and rising inventories, peak oil advocates warn the relief is temporary– EIA predicted a 4% drop in
US consumption for 2008– Energy experts* suggest a
substantial run up in prices around 2015• Demand in growing economies threatens to exceed the
location of new reserves• Some experts think non-OPEC production is peaking now• Excess production capability has dropped from 10 million
bbl/day in the 1980s to around 2 million bbl/day in 2008-2009
Graphic: Energy Tribune
* Including Peter Wells (who consults with Toyota) and Charley Maxwell (senior energy analyist at Weeden & Co.)Energy Tribune, 11/26/08 http://www.energytribune.com/articles.cfm?aid=1032
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Sources of GHG
• Transportation is biggest GHG source in CA, but it is also one third of all US emissions
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Magnitude of California’s Challenge to 2020 and Beyond
ARB Emissions Inventory
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
1990 2000 2004 2020 2050Year
Mill
ion
Met
ric T
ons
(CO
2 Eq
uiva
lent
)
1990 Emission Baseline
~173 MMT CO2e Reduction
80% Reduction ~341 MMT
CO2e
80% Reduction ~341 MMT CO2e
Copyright CALSTART 2009
EPA Ready to Regulate Carbon
• Health Endangerment finding has been made:– “In both magnitude and probability, climate change is an
enormous problem. The greenhouse gases that are responsible for it endanger public health and welfare within the meaning of the Clean Air Act.”
• Gases to be regulated: carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, hydrofluorocarbons, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride
• Conclusions:– Concentrations of these gases are at unprecedented
levels as a result of human emissions– Gases are very likely the cause of the increase in average
temperatures and other changes in our climate • The Administrator is further proposing to find that the
combined emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and HFCs from new motor vehicles and motor vehicle engines contribute to the atmospheric concentrations of these key greenhouse gases and hence to the threat of climate change. This is referred to as the cause or contribute finding.
http://epa.gov/climatechange/endangerment.html
EPA Administrator Lisa Jackson
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Federal Auto Standards
May 19, 2009: President Obama announces national fuel efficiency policy modeled after CA Pavley standards
Photo: New York Times• Light duty standards for MY 2012-2016: 250 gCO2/mile by 2016 (roughly 35.5 mpg)
• Win for the environment: national standard will lead to greater emission reductions than CA waiver
• Win for industry: single standard preferable to patchwork of standards
Copyright CALSTART 2009
EPA’s Light Duty GHG Standard Average of 250 g CO2/mile by 2016
•Standards have same endpoint as CA Pavley standards.
•5% annual rate of improvement
•Still higher than limits in many other developed countries.
Copyright CALSTART 2009
EU to Cut Auto Emissions 18% by 2015
• In December, EU representatives agreed to require cutting auto GHG emissions – Change from voluntary
compliance to EU-wide mandate is very significant
– Target is reduction of 18% by 2015
– New maximum standard = 130g CO2/km by 2012
– Fines for non-compliance consideredstiff, up to $119 per vehicle
– Environmentalists disappointed by automaker influence, affectingtimeline, emission requirements
• Plan must pass Euro Parliament vote
Returers, 12/02/08
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Reductions Beyond Pavley Needed in Ground Transportation
Pavley bill (AB 1493 in 2002)
helps reduce rate of growth
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
GH
G M
MT
(CO
2 e)
2050 GHG Goal 80% Below 1990
Pavley Reductions
Alternative Fuel Reductions
AB 32 Allowable GHG Emissions
2050 GHG Emissions Expected - IEPR
Copyright CALSTART 2009
EPA Proposing Changes to Federal Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS)
• RFS2 increases renewable fuel mandate to 36 billion gallons by 2022
• Expands RFS to include diesel and non-road fuels• Establishes new renewable fuel categories and GHG reduction
thresholds:– Renewable fuel: 20% GHG reduction from 2005 baseline– Advanced biofuel: 50% (or possibly as low as 40%)– Biomass-based diesel: 50%– Cellulosic biofuel: 60%
• 15B gallons/year of corn ethanol in 2012-2022• 21B gallons of “advanced biofuels” by 2022
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Low Carbon Fuel Standard
• California approves measure that will require reduction in “carbon intensity” of fuels
• Requires reduction in carbon levels in fuel by 10% over next decade– Reduce levels in fuel by blending,
formulation, selling other fuels• 16 other states may follow rule; federal
government considering similar measure• First generation biofuels (biodiesel,
ethanol) have raised big questions due to “indirect” emissions – emissions from changes in land cover world wide to produce them
• Regulators expect new generation of fuels to come from feedstocks such as algae, wood, agricultural waste, switchgrass, and even from municipal solid waste
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Where Are Biofuels Headed?
• Still very much an active debate• Today’s biofuels are stepping stones to next
generation fuels and feedstocks – we believe you must start somewhere to make progress!
• Biofuels in future that do not compete with food and wilderness for fertile land can avoid indirect GHG emissions (Alex Farrell, UC Berkeley Energy & Resources Group)– Wastes and residues, agriculture seasonal mix,
wastelands crops – more R&D
Copyright CALSTART 2009
The Fuel Landscape is Changing
• Broader look at full impacts on well-to-wheels basis underway, including indirect, food competition and land use impacts
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Lab, UC Berkeley
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Graphical Depiction of Indirect Emissions
Source: Alex Farrell, UC Berkeley
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Adjusted Carbon Intensity Values for Gasoline & Substitutes
Fuel Pathway Direct ILUC
EER
Total
Gasoline (3 pathways) 95.86 – 96.09
0 1 95.86 -96.09
Ethanol from corn (11 pathways, both midwest and CA)
47.44 – 75.10
30 1 77.40 – 105.10
Ethanol from Sugarcane (1 pathway – Brazilian)
27.40 47 1 73.40
Electricity (2 pathways – CA average and renewable mix)
104.70 – 124.10
0 3 34.90 - 41.37
Hydrogen (4 pathways – liquid & compressed, various feedstocks)
76.10 – 142.20
0 2.3 33.09 – 61.83
Carbon intensity values are measured in grams CO2e/MJ21 pathways completed
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Adjusted Carbon Intensity Values for Diesel & Substitutes
Fuel Pathway Direct ILUC
EER
Total
Diesel (1 pathway: average ULSD)
94.71 0 1 94.71
Compressed Natural Gas (CA and N. American, compressed in CA)
67.70 – 68.0
0 0.9 75.22 – 75.56
Compressed Natural Gas (landfill gas, or biomethane)
11.26 0 0.9 12.51
Electricity (2 pathways – CA average and renewable mix)
104.70 - 124.10
0 2.7 38.78 – 45.96
Hydrogen (4 pathways – liquid & compressed, various feedstocks)
76.10 – 142.20
0 1.9 40.05 – 70.84
Carbon intensity values are measured in grams CO2e/MJ10 pathways completed
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Energy Economy Ratios from CARB’s Proposed Regulation
Source: California Air Resources Board
2.7
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Climate Change Bills are Moving Ahead
• Climate Change and Energy bills moving – though Senate signals a desire to slow pace
• Bills moving in committee– House Energy Chair Henry
Waxman targets Memorial Day for energy, GHG bills
– Barbara Boxer is leading climate change legislation on the Senate side
– Speaker Pelosi advocates an ‘all-in-one’ approach that handles energy issues and global warming concerns in comprehensive legislation – Senate so far separates issues
Photo: Syracuse.com
US News & World Report, 03/11/09, http://www.usnews.com/articles/news/energy/2009/03/11/on-climate-change-henry-waxman-wants-congress-to-act-now.html
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Reducing Your Footprint for Independence, Carbon and Savings
• Step 1: Baseline your fleet• Step 2: Learn your options for reduction• Step 3: Compare your options to your
fleet mix, fleet geography, operational profile
• Step 4: Outline your reduction plan pathways – your shift in fleet technology, fuel and operations over several years
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Your Fuel and Carbon Footprint
• Step 1: Baseline your fleet– You need to know your starting point– Keep it simple: Easiest way to do that is to
measure your yearly fuel burn– 22 pounds of CO2 for every gallon of diesel
burned; 20 pounds for every gallon of gasoline; do the math!
– Consider joining a climate registry to document your progress
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Your Fuel and Carbon Footprint
• Step 2: Know your options for reduction– Reduce your fuel burn
• Increased efficiency: hybrids; cylinder on demand • Eliminate idling• Downsize vehicle platform sizes where possible
– Reduce your fuel carbon intensity• Fuel switching: biofuel blends; natural gas
– Fuel world is changing and feedstock and process for the fuel matter
– Change your operations• Take vehicles off the road (electronic meter reading)• Dispatch best-suited vehicles to job• Reduce vehicle miles traveled (VMT)
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Your Fuel and Carbon Footprint
• Step 3: Compare your options to your fleet mix, fleet geography, operational profile– E85 may be a great option in Midwest, propane
better in Texas, natural gas in California – look for match with growing infrastructure and production
– Place the correct technology and fuel into the best use in your fleet; fine tune your fleet
– Be aware of regional air quality needs – not all fuels work everywhere
– Look for funding that can support your strategy in your different regions
• EPA; air districts; DERA; Clean Cities; state and regional incentives
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Your Fuel and Carbon Footprint
• Step 4: Outline your reduction plan pathways – your shift in fleet technology, fuel and operations over several years– Look for solutions where expansion of capacity
and/or improvements will take place– Vehicle fuel economy, hybrids just at beginning of
improvements– Despite shake up in biofuels today, indicators are
that present-day ethanol – while imperfect – will be a stepping stone to more efficient alcohol production
– Biodiesel production will broaden to renewable diesel blends, broader feedstocks
– Direct fuel replacement also possible (bio-derived gasoline) but it is still in infancy
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Options LandscapeExamples
Fuels TechnologiesEthanol: avail now; regional; process and feedstock improving; small CO2 gain now but growingPropane: vehicle models available; special fueling; small CO2 gains
Biodiesel: production growing; feedstock concerns; CO2 gains; NOx issueRenewable diesel: emerging option
Plug-in hybrid: retrofit in LD; first LD products 09/10; first pilot products in M/HD now; business case still uncertain based on fuel prices; strong policy support
Hydrogen: longer term option; transit; blending
Electric: small vehicle niche; LD products possible 10/11; MD products emerging for delivery/ urban niche
Fuel Cell: still early demos; limited testing 09-11; time to products?
Hybrid: models expanding in LD; first OEM production in MD/HD; 20-50% carbon/fuel reduction
Strategies
Platform/engine size reduction: “right-sizing”
Dispatch changes, work changes to reduce vehicle use
Routing efficiencies: VMT reduction
Natural gas: limited infrastructure but building around niches; CO2 benefits up to 21%; Biomethane for green NG; HCNG blending
Adv. Engine: cylinder on demand; improved combustion; start-stop; turbocharging
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Ethanol• Significant growth in production slowing due to fuel price,
economy – but can off set oil today• Clear limits seen on corn-based production• Questions growing: land impact; energy use; limits • Other feedstocks and advanced production (such as cellulosic)
are in active development – second generation production methods have already started
• Lower in energy than gasoline but can be priced competitively – though its cost rising too
• Lower GHG impact than gasoline; lower for most emissions – low % blends a concern in some areas
• Infrastructure growing quickly but still limited; most flex fuel vehicles still do not use E-85!
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Natural Gas• Re-emergence of natural gas – port locations big
promoters for clean air• Increasing production in medium and heavy-duty
(Kenworth, Freightliner, Mack), new and advanced engines out
• Mostly domestic and a lower carbon alternative – particularly biomethane
• Also increasing in cost; may become increasingly imported
• Niches remain strong: transit, refuse, now ports • Infrastructure still key barrier for many, though fuel
partners available; strongest growth in regions with good infrastructure
• Light-duty OEM: Honda Civic GX in US; Can get natural gas upfits for several light and medium duty vehicles; low volume manufacturers still producing vehicles and kits
Copyright CALSTART 2009
VW Shows Turbo/Super Charged CNG Concept Vehicle
• Touran TSI EcoFuel debuts at Geneva Motor Show– Features dual charging via
turbocharger and supercharger– When paired with a standard
6-speed transmission, fuel consumption is 4.8 kilograms of natural gas per 100 kilometers
– CO2 is approximately 129g/km• Meets Euro-5 standards
– Has four natural gas tanks and an auxiliary gasoline tank
• Range of 370 kms using natural gas fuel only, and a maximum range of 520 kms
Photo: Media.Photobucket.com
CALSTART NewsNotes, 03/03/09
Copyright CALSTART 2009
New NG Engines, Trucks Available
• California Air Resources Board (CARB) and U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) certified Westport’s High Pressure Direct Injection (HPDI) technology adapted to the 2007 Cummins ISX heavy-duty engine
• Kenworth expands to LNG vehicles with T800 LBG trucks– Mfg at Renton WA in 2009– Trucks to feature Cummins ISX, Westport’s HPDI
fuel systems• Freightliner producing CNG version of its
Business Class M2 106 truck– To contain Cummins Westport 8.9 -liter L Gas Plus
engine• Mack bring natural gas refuse truck back
to market– Use Cummins Westport ISL G natural gas engine
Copyright CALSTART 2009
AT&T’s Push Has Big Impact for CNG
• As part of AT&T’s ambitious plan to expand the company’s alt fuel fleet, CNG vehicles will be a big part of that expansion– Out of $565 million, $350 million
is estimated for CNG vehicles– Out of 15,000 alt fuel vehicles,
8,000 are anticipated to be CNG vehicles• AT&T’s alt fuel fleet is expected to include more than 15,000
vehicles by 2019– The alternative-fuel vehicles are expected to offer
• Up to nearly 40% improvement in fuel economy and • Up to 29% in greenhouse gas emission reductions
Photo: Examiner.com
http://www.att.com/gen/press-room?pid=4800&cdvn=news&newsarticleid=26598
Copyright CALSTART 2009
UPS Expands CNG Fleet with 300 New Trucks
• With the addition of 300 new CNG trucks, UPS has the largest private fleet of alternative fuel vehicles– 1,819 alt fuel fleet covers
1,100 CNG fueled vehicles, including 800 trucks
– Alt fuel trucks reduce petroleum consumption, reduce fuel costs
– Newest CNG trucks expected to reduce emissions by 20 percent compared to cleanest diesel engines currently available
CALSTART NewsNotes, 03/02/09
Photo: UPS
Copyright CALSTART 2009
First Trucks to Run on Biomethane In California
• In 2009 Hilarides Dairy powers trucks on renewable biomethane from dairy operation
• Has potential to generate 650 diesel gallon equivalents (DGEs) from farm
• CALSTART prepared a federal stimulus and AB 118 proposal to jump-start the biomethane industry
CBG Truck In Tulare
Tulare Covered Lagoon Producing CBG
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Biodiesel and Renewable Diesel• Volumes still low but growing – some impact
from feedstock switching to produce ethanol• Unintended consequences: feedstock matters –
some bio-oil production is damaging, raises questions about benefits
• Most OEMs accepting increased biodiesel use – fuel spec has now been developed for B1-B20 levels
• Fuel quality improving but varies greatly – about 90% of biodiesel meets specs (diversity of feedstock & processes)
• Little or no performance drop off from conventional diesel; some operating concerns (such as cold weather)
• Reduced greenhouse gases and particulates from diesel, but questions over increased NOx for biodiesel; more research needed
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Solazyme, Chevron Work on Biofuels from Algae
• Chevron announces partnership with company that extracts oils from algae, San Francisco-based Solazyme
• Solazyme also unveils what it says is first-of-its-kind algae-derived biodiesel, “Soladiesel”
• Says Soladiesel has successfully been roadtested in “factory standard automobile for long distances”
• Solazyme has developed an industrial scale fermentation process currently capable of producing thousands of gallons of algal oil using standard industrial equipment
• Solazyme plans to dramatically expand production in 2008
Mercedes Benz C320 runs on algae-derived biodiesel Source: Solazyme
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Electric Technology
• Possible re-emergence of Electric Vehicles!• No US OEM passenger car product YET – though Nissan
and Mitsubishi say 2010 for EV, Daimler may produce and now GM and Chrysler announce products
• Also: medium-duty all-electric trucks becoming available in North America from two UK companies: Smith Trucks and Modec; others entering space for light/medium duty trucks
• Improving battery technology partly thanks to hybrids (NiMH, lithium ion)
• Still expensive, range limited: but energy storage costs dropping steadily
• Increased petroleum prices makes an improving business case
• Criteria and GHG emissions very low; varies depending on fuel source of power plants, but very good in California
Copyright CALSTART 2009
EVs: Several Possible
• GM Volt EREV: Extended Range Electric Vehicle - Pre-production model unveiled Sept 16, 2008
• On track to late 2010 first sales?• Combines battery-electric drive system
(goal: 40 mile EV range) with a small gasoline engine generator that runs when batteries get low to power car
• Chrysler surprises industry, announces will produce electric vehicle(s) by 2010
• Showcases several potential models using current and new platforms
• Nissan looking at 2010 EVs using lithium-ion• Mitsubishi Motors working on an EV with
PSA Peugeot Citroen; plans for iMEV by 2010
Copyright CALSTART 2009
VW, Toshiba Team on EV
02/18/09 Environmental Leaderhttp://www.environmentalleader.com/2009/02/18/volkswagen-teams-with-toshiba-to-sell-electric-car-by-2012/
• Volkswagen AG signs with Toshiba to develop new EV technology – High-density battery
systems will be the focus of the partnership
– VW and Toshiba also have relationships with Sanyo focusing on nickel-metal hydride
– New partnership focused on lithium-ion path• VW’s drive train experience will be complemented by
Toshiba’s battery and system expertise
Photo: FuelEfficientVehicles.org
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Smith to Build More Electric Vans, Trucks in US
• Smith Electric Vehicles launches new production facility in US in Kansas City region
• Smith also unveils the US version of the Newton, which has a top speed of 50, range of over 100 miles and a payload capacity of up to 16,280 lbs and is available in US truck Classes 5 through 7
• Unveils first all-electric utility bucket truck based on Newton at EUFMC 2009 in partnership with Altec, testing with PG&E
• Will also build electric Ford Transit Connect vehicle in Kansas City
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Electric Delivery Vans Deployed by FedEx in UK
• Electric propulsion systems can work in selected niches in truck market
• Cost of batteries remains a challenge
Copyright CALSTART 2009
E-Trucks Headed to Port of LA
• Delivery of heavy-duty all-electric trucks begins at Los Angeles port
• Partnership with the Port of Los Angeles, South Coast Air Quality Management District and a small manufacturer, Balqon Corp.
• Nautilus E30 all-battery electric vehicle for work within the port, and for short hauls outside– Range of 40-60 miles per charge, depending on load– Charging time of three hours on 230v/480v chargers
• Unique partnership involved R&D funding from the port, and future royalty arrangement paid to port
Photo: Los Angeles Times
02/25/09 Los Angeles Times, http://www.latimes.com/business/la-fi-electric-truck25-2009feb25,0,6411132.story
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Hybrid Technology
• Perfect storm for hybrids? Incremental cost in cars dropping as fuel price rises – but fuel cost roller coaster, economy slowing market
• 10-years experience in cars: decent and now accelerating market penetration (3%) but still dominated by two automakers (Toyota and Honda); GM presence growing
• First products entering market for medium- and heavy-duty vehicles
• First focus is urban work trucks: Class 4-8 refuse, utility, delivery
• Class 8 drayage, line-haul and construction equipment are in prototype or near pre-production
• Hybrids can multiply benefits when combined with low carbon fuels (biofuels, NG, electricity – plug-in)
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Small Hybrids: Heating Up
• With Honda expanding its activity in hybrids, Toyota announces new models– Honda’s new entry, the small
Insight hybrid, is tallying up brisk sales in Japan with a $20,000 price point
• A hybrid version of the smaller Fit compact is planned– Toyota announces a small hybrid based on the Yaris, to
expand its’ hybrid range downward into smaller, more affordable vehicles
• Technology from the company’s flagship Prius vehicle has been migrating upline, into larger and more expensive vehicles
• Market date for new Yaris hybrid uncertain, possibly for the 2011 lineup
Automotive News, 03/25/09, http://www.autonews.com/article/20090325/ANA02/903259986
Honda Insight Photo: Jalopnik.com
Toyota Yaris Photo: AutoChannel.com
Copyright CALSTART 2009
• What is the status of medium and heavy duty hybrids?
Hybrid Truck Technology is Here
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Hybrid Truck Technology is Critical to the U.S.
• Hybridization provides significant immediate benefits– ENERGY SECURITY: Reduced fuel
consumption (30-50%)– EMISSIONS/CLIMATE: Reduced
criteria (NOx) and GHG emissions (10-60%)
• One of few strategies to improve on 2010 emissions reductions
– ECONOMY: North American leadership in technology, manufacturing Fuel consumption reduction from HTUF field testing data
Reductions come just from hybrid system, no additional after-treatment
CO2 reductions closely tracked fuel reduction percentages
Emissions/fuel reduction from HTUF dyno testing data performed at SwRI
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Hybrid Truck Users Forum (HTUF)
• Successful CALSTART program with U.S. Army, DOE, fleet users, truck makers and industry partners has spurred rapid, early demonstration and production of truck hybrids
• User driven process involving > 80 fleets with > 1 million trucks– Highly unique model has focused on developing user
demand (market pull)
All Major Truck Makers and System Suppliers involved
(partial list)
Copyright CALSTART 2009
HTUF National Conference 2008
• World’s biggest hybrid truck and bus ride and driveWorld’s biggest hybrid truck and bus ride and drive• Vehicles from Navistar, Freightliner, FCCC, Kenworth, Peterbilt, Azure
Dynamics, Bosch Rexroth, Eaton, Dueco-Odyne, Hino, E-One, Arvin Meritor, Crane Carrier, NABI, JAMMA vehicle
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Timeline to Commercialization: Hybrid Trucks Now Entering Market
DevelopmentPre-Production
Production IntentEarly Production
Test prototypes and systems
Field pilot assessments (10-50 vehicles)
Assembly line builds up to 100+
Initial commercial volumes – still high incremental cost
TOO
LS:
R&D Support
Pre-Production Deployment Support (HTUF)
Purchase Incentives
Hybrid introduction 10 years behind cars but industry is real, momentum growing
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Hybrid Medium Duty Trucks Expand to Both New & Heavier Applications
• Navistar extends weight class from 23,500 to 37,000 lbs (into Class 8 range)– 6 engine horsepower/ torque
combinations– Showcases hybrids for tree-
trimming, wrecker, dump, crane and beverage
• Peterbilt adds dump truck variant to cargo and utility body
• Freightliner shows M2 delivery and beverage bodies, new bus and RV platforms
• Posi Plus shows tandem axle utility truck to 40,000 lbs
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Hybrid Tractors Emerging for Regional Heavy Applications
• Kenworth unveils Class 7/8 hybrid tractor: 54,500 lbs GCVW
• Peterbilt has similar model – also continuing to test larger Class 8 heavy-duty OTR tractor
• Navistar unveils Class 7/8 hybrid tractor targeting beverage trailer applications
• Freightliner announces will pilot build a hybrid tractor Dec 08 Above: Kenworth Class 8 tractor;
Below: Navistar Class 7/8 tractor
Left: Freightliner Class 7/8 tractor pilot; right, Peterbilt Class 7/8 tractor
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Wal-Mart Class 8 Demo
• ArvinMeritor – Navistar deliver unique dual-mode hybrid design for testing
• Electric drive at lower speeds (up to 48 mph), blended mode at higher speeds
• Can greatly reduce fuel use, cut idle and give zero emission at ports, urban driving
• Wal-Mart testing this truck and several Peterbilt-Eaton trucks in line-haul and regional heavy haul applications
• Wal-Mart committed to doubling its fleet fuel efficiency by 2015
•
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Electric “Reefer” Units Emerging with Hybrid Systems
• Navistar, Freightliner and Azure show electric refrigeration units – “reefers” and cold plates - combined with hybrids or energy storage
• Further reduces fuel burn, eliminates additional engine, cuts criteria and carbon emissions
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Class 4/5 Offerings Expanding
• Azure Dynamics expands to multiple body offerings from base Ford E-Series hybrid chassis
• Adds relationships with nine truck body companies for shuttle bus, panel van and other applications
• Adding “LEEP” Lift system to Class 4/5 pick-up chassis
Engine off lift operation via stored energy
Can charge while drivingElectric AC optional
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Hydraulic Hybrid Vehicles
• Extremely promising technology• Benefits: possible lower cost than electric
technology; excellent at high power, demanding duty cycles; robust component base
• Weight, system integration and control are key issues; farther behind in development curve
• Most focus is on medium and heavy-duty vehicles
• Major US manufacturers are leaders in this technology
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Freightliner CC, Parker Hannifin Show Hydraulic Hybrid
• Team of Freightliner and Parker Hannifin introduce a new hydraulic hybrid platform
• Features Cummins ISB 2007 engine, a Parker hydraulic-propulsion system, no transmission needed
• Available in limited volume for now• Power recovery is critical
– Hydraulic hybrid recovers and reuses up to 70% of energy during the braking process
Photo: Freightliner Custom Chassis
CALSTART NewsNote 03/05/09 For more information, visit www.freightlinerchassis.com
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Pre-Production – Hydraulic Refuse Truck
• Peterbilt - Eaton in final stages of field pilot testing of hydraulic hybrid refuse truck (63,000 pound GVWR)
• Pre-production in 2007/2008 – Production in 2009
• Eaton to use same pump/accumulator design for hydraulic shuttle bus
• Fuel savings in 10-30% range – carbon reductions track fuel reductions closely
Peterbilt Hybrid Refuse Chassis
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Hydraulic Competition Expands
• Crane Carrier shows refuse collection truck with Bosch Rexroth HRB parallel hydraulic hybrid system
• Will enter testing with NY City Sanitation as part of HTUF Refuse Working Group deployment May 2009
• Bosch also shows “series” hydraulic hybrid system in advanced military prototype now entering testing
Left: Bosch Rexroth Hydrostatic Regenerative Braking (HRB) system for
refuse and heavy applicationsRight: Bosch Rexroth series hydraulic
military truck prototype
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Hybrid Trucks: at “Tipping Point” but Need Help to Speed Early Market
• Hybrid truck production volumes are still too low in early market to realize price reductions– Current payback period too long even with big fuel/maintenance
savings• However: modest volumes can move prices to within
business cases needs: Need 3,000 - 5,000 unit sales/year– Incentives can provide big kick-start to this number by
helping drive volume up in targeted effort• Federal, state level
• Need correct incentives to bridge gap between today’s price and prices at higher volumes– Federal tax credits well-intentioned but not best tool for commercial
fleets: too low, doesn’t help most fleets
Hybrids moving from development to production
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles
• Lots of attention and interest in PHEVs among policy makers, environmentalists
• All current PHEVs are conversions from small firms – very few on road
• No OEM production dates set – though increasingly “hinted at”: GM 2009 for Saturn, 2010 for Volt?
• Benefits: increased fuel economy, GHG reductions, possible zero emission driving
• Cost and life cycle of energy storage (batteries) are prime limiter, along with infrastructure network (can plug at home)
• Most focus is on passenger cars – however while trucks offer additional challenges, there may be possible business case benefits before cars
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Toyota vs. GM vs. Ford: Working on Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles
• Toyota Motor Company is testing plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, first Japanese automaker to research and road test the technology
• General Motors has taken the lead in developing rechargeable vehicles – “Volt” pre-production car unveiled Sept 08; possible for 2010
• GM may have Saturn Vue PHEV by late 2009
• Ford in PHEV testing partnership with Southern California Edison
• Ford continues to study a PHEV concept “Extend,” seeks trademark
Ford PHEV Escape
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Bright Plug-in Van Prototype Shown
• “IDEA” prototype from Bright Automotive brings together light-weight body/chassis with hybrid driveline, plug in battery pack
• 30 miles possible all-electric; blended mode can see 100 mpg in urban delivery duty
• Front conventional engine, rear electric drive axle; 10 kwh Li-ion batteries in proof of concept unit
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Plug in Hybrid Trucks Emerge: Several Utility Industry Variants
• Commercial work trucks show potential for PHEV functionality before cars
• Extra energy storage boosts idle reduction/work site engine-off ops
• Diesel fuel costs cause rapid review of potential business case– Energy Storage costs still high
• Dueco-Odyne first into market– Plug-in hybrid utility bucket trucks – PHEV “digger-derrick” version 6/08, a
higher power-demand work truck– Trucks carry 35 kwh of energy storage
(lead-acid, 3000 pounds) for long work site ops
– PHEV underground compressor truck • Eaton has two prototypes
– Class 6/7 variant based on production truck, system
– Class 5 “Superduty” prototype with EPRI
Dueco-Odyne plug-in “material handler” (above), “digger-derrick” (middle), compressor truck (bottom).
Plug-in port
Eaton PHEV utility trucks
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Plug-in Energy Storage Bodies
• New variant of an older idea – uses stored energy to operate lift, tools at work site
• Separate from and does not change conventional driveline
• Fuel savings and idle reduction benefits
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Hydrogen / Fuel Cell Technology
• Longer term technology development effort• US DOE halts all vehicle-based fuel cell development funding –
focuses on stationary applications• California legislature proposing to eliminate funding for
hydrogen refueling infrastructure• A few hundred vehicles worldwide for technical assessment to
date• Original launch dates (2010) no longer on table• Will likely see in heavy transit buses before passenger cars• Costs still extremely high, though significant technical
advancement has occurred• Significant benefit in near term from blending with natural gas
(NOx reductions)• In medium term, stationary/distributed generation; fork lifts;
Auxiliary power units (APUs) for system power, idle reduction, range extension on some vehicles/equipment
• Longer term, possible primary power for centrally refueled vehicles/equipment
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Nissan Testing Next-Gen FCV
• New Nissan FC stack is smaller, more powerful than previous technology– 25% smaller – 1.4 times power output –
130kw from 90kw• Fuel cell vehicle began cold-weather testing in Feb.• Smaller fuel cell will use 50 percent less platinum, cutting
manufacturing costs significantly• Previous generation (announced August 2008) touted 35
percent reduction in platinum
CALSTART NewsNotes, 02/26/09
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Develop a Reduction PlanTe
chno
logy
/ Fue
l/ O
pera
tiona
l
Application/ RegionLD Urban Support
LD RegionalVehicle
Reduce vehicle count through process improvement
Right size platforms to job needs
NEVs for on-site transport
Mix of natural gas or propane vehicles in regions with infrastructure
Hybrids for urban driving Some hybrids for
stop and go driving
E85/Flexfuel for longer distance if fuel available
Right size platforms to job needs
MD WorkVehicle - Urban
Mix of hybrids for urban, stop-go or high idle work
Right size platforms dispatched for job needs
Natural gas or propane vehicles in cities with infrastructure
Biodiesel blends (check spec and source)
MD WorkVehicle - Rural
Right size platforms dispatched for job needs
Biodiesel blends (check spec and source)
Chassis energy storage for work site idle
Natural gas or propane vehicles in cities with infrastructure
Copyright CALSTART 2009
Summary: Fleets, Climate Change
• Don’t Blink• Plan Beyond the Roller Coaster• Start with the Basics• Find Combination Strategies• No more “one size fits all” answers• Should establish multi-year reduction plans• Best simple metric is petroleum use – how much do you
use now, and how can you reduce it?• Tools:
– Low carbon fuels – this is a moving target– More efficient vehicles (many ways to achieve)– More efficient operations and systems– LOOK FOR COMBINATION STRATEGIES
(efficiency+fuels+operations)
Clean Transportation Solutions SM
www.calstart.org
For info contact:
Bill Van Amburg(626) [email protected]
www.htuf.org
Advanced Transportation Technologies SM