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California’s Clean Energy Future Where do we go from here?
U.S Department of Energy Annual Merit Review
May 9th, 2011
Key Takeaways
• Many of the greatest business opportunities in the 21st century will be associated with the ‘new energy economy’.
• Those nations, states, institutions, and companies that aggressively pursue the right portfolio of policies and strategies will be the winners.
• Our energy system is massive, achieving our goals will take time and sustained effort, and there will be many bumps along the way.
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California by the numbers
GSP ~$1.9 Trillion (2009)
Electricity Consumption ~287,000 GWh (2008)
Peak Demand ~64,000 MW (2006)
Energy Expenditures (2008) ~$33.5B Electricity ~$17.6B Natural Gas ~$80B Petroleum
Total ~ $360Million/day (2008) 3
California GSP and State Revenue ($M)
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California Clean Tech Investment/Patents
Source: “2010 California Green Innovation Index”, Next 10, http://next10.org/environment/greenInnovation09.html
California Clean Tech Investment/Patents
Source: “2010 California Green Innovation Index”, Next 10, http://next10.org/environment/greenInnovation09.html
California’s Major Energy Policy Initiatives
Renewable Portfolio Standard
Energy Efficiency (Standards and Incentives)
2010 2020
GHG Reduction Targets
Clean Vehicles/Low Carbon Fuels/
Petroleum Reduction
Renewables 33% of retail sales
(~78,000 102,000 GWh)
10% reduction in lifecycle carbon intensity; 20% Alternative NonPetroleum Fuel Use
Renewables 20% of retail sales (~55,000 GWh)
1990 levels by 2020 (AB32); 80% below 1990 levels by 2050 To be achieved by portfolio of policies including Efficiency, Renewables,
Lowcarbon fuels, Vehicles, Cap ant Trade, etc.
All cost effective energy efficiency (~20,000+ GWH by 2020)
PHEV + ZEV = 67,500+ by 2014
New Vehicles = 30% reduction in GHG’s by 2016;
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Government Role in Enabling Energy Technologies
The “Pipeline” Policy Strategy to drive innovation
• Research and Development
• Deployment Incentives
• Codes and Standards
• Fiscal Policies
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“Energy Carrier” du jour Phenomenon
• 30 years ago – Synfuels (oil shale, coal)
• 25 years ago – Methanol
• 18 years ago – Electricity (Battery EVs)
• 8 years ago – Hydrogen (Fuel cells)
• 4 years ago – Ethanol/Biofuels
• Today – Electricity again (EV+PHEV)
• Next year ?
• Conclusion – we need a new strategy!
GHG (and Petroleum) Reduction strategies
Primary Average Total Energy Efficiency Demand
GHG (MTCO2e per Year) = GHG (MTCO2e)
Energy x Energy
Widget x Widgets
year
Land Use/ Low Carbon Vehicle Transportation
Fuels Standards Planning
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Performance Standards for Fuels
Land use emissions
Performance Standards for Vehicles
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Performance Standards for Communities
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Public Support for Portfolio of Clean Vehicle/Fuel Development and Deployment
Getting to 2050 – One Scenario
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THANK YOU!
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Leading indicators
(Per Capita)
(Per Capita)
Source: “2010 California Green Innovation Index”, Next 10, http://next10.org/environment/greenInnovation09.html