PRIME-ARY PERSPECTIVE: CALIFORNIA

P RIME-A RY Perspectives is a series that will give you an overview of the most noteworthyresults from each state's primary election, focusing on congressional districts that are likelyto be most competitive in November, as well as those that will have new representation in2019 because of retirements. As always, please do not hesitate to reach out to us with questions!

CALIFORNIACalifornia, in many ways, will be the true test of Democraticpower to take over the House this year. With a half-dozencurrently Republican-held generally as understood asvulnerable, Tuesday's primaries were the first hurdle forDemocrats to clear.

The state, unlike most others across the country, has a "top 2"system, wherein the top 2 vote-getters in the primary,irregardless of party affiliation, proceed to the general electionballot. The massive backlash against President Trump in

California led to a groundswell of energy among potential Democratic candidates, and anabundance of candidates for almost every House race across the state. The sheer number ofthese candidates led to significant fears amongst Democratic party leaders that they wouldsplit the vote, leading to the party being shut out of the ballot in November in some of theirprime pick-up opportunities.

However, thanks to last-minute efforts by the DCCC and other high-profile Democraticactivists, that did not occur. There are several races (noted below) where there is still aquestion of which Democratic candidate will qualify for the ballot - mostly due to the sheernumber of Californians who vote by mail (ballots must simply be postmarked, not necessarilyreceived, on election day to be counted).

GUBERNATORIALGov. Jerry Brown (D) is term-limited, so both the Democratic andRepublican gubernatorial candidates will be new this year. Republicanconcerns that one of their candidates would not make the general electionballot, leading to significant turn-out issues for down-ballot candidates, didnot materialize. Due to the make-up of the state, the Democratic candidate

will be heavily favored in November.

Gavin Newsom (D)Gavin Newsom, the Lieutenant Governor of California, was the topvote-getter on Tuesday, earning 33%. Newsom is running on aprogressive platform that includes support for universalhealthcare. This should not be a close election, as Gov. Brownhandpicked Newsom to be his successor and many suspect him torun away with the election.

John Cox (R)Cox was the second place finisher, gaining 26% of the vote. Cox, who

is endorsed by President Trump, is running on a traditional Republican

platform.

SENATEAfter much publicity and numerous rumors concerning a seriousprimary challenge to the 84-year old incumbent, Diane Feinstein,she easily won 44% of the vote Tuesday night, besting all othercandidates.

Kevin de LeonThe second place finisher was Democrat Kevin de León who received11% of the vote and locked out a Republican from this race. Expectthis to be another lopsided victory as Feinstein is all but assured tocruise to reelection for her 6th term.

CA-04California's Fourth Congressional District includes several central countriesin the heartland of California. A largely rural district, CA-4 is 85% white androutinely votes for Republicans to represent it. It includes many touristattractions such as Yosemite National Park, Lake Tahoe, and MountWhitney.

On Tuesday night, GOP Incumbent Tom McClintock advanced to thegeneral election after receiving 52% percent of the vote.

Jessica Morse (D)Democrat Jessica Morse who received 20%, respectfully. Morse has agood resume; she is a former pentagon national security advisor andshe graduated from Princeton. However, she will likely lose toMcClintock in November as he carried his district with 62% of thevote in 2016.

CA-07California's 7th Congressional District is made up mostly of thesouthern city of Sacramento, and is ranked a D+3 district. The districtis 57% white, 8% black, 16% Asian and 16% Hispanic. This isconsidered a reliably safe seat for Democrats, but incumbent Ami Beraonly win her district by 3 points in 2016, making it impossible to callthis election until the polls close. Democrat Ami Bera won 52% in theprimary vote.

Andrew Grant (R)Republican challenger Andrew Grant won 33%. Grant is a formerMarine intelligence officer who also worked in the StateDepartment and for the Chair of the Joint Chiefs of Staff. He is astrong candidate, but he in unlikely to make up the nearly 20points needs to beat his opponent in November.

CA-10California's 7th Congressional is located in the interior of the state andincludes Central Valley and Stanislaus. This district is rated "even" bythe Cook Political Report. GOP Incumbent Jeff Denham won 38% ofthe vote Tuesday night.

The Cook Political Report ranks this race as toss-up that leansRepublican, so it remains to be seen if Denham will win reelection for this 4th term in adistrict that Hillary Clinton won in 2016.

John Harder (D)Democratic challenger Josh Harder received 16% of the vote.This race featured 6 Democrats and 2 Republicans, so it ispossible that Democrats rally around Harder, who works as aventure capitalist.

CA-21

California's 21st Congressional District includes parts of Central Valley

and several suburbs around Fresno. It is 71% Hispanic, and has beenrepresented by GOP incumbent David Valadao since 2013. CookPolitical Report ranks the district as lean R.

TJ Cox (D)Because there are only two candidates who ran in the primary,both Valadao and Democrat TJ Cox advanced automatically. Cox,who has worked in engineering and business, was a late entry into

the race, and, while underfunded, will have a solid chance at winning inNovember.

CA-25In a district that voted for Clinton 50-44, incumbent Republican SteveKnight took 52% of the vote in a race seeking his third term in Congress.The district is north of Los Angeles and includes Santa Clarita andPalmdale. He'll face Democrat Katie Hill in November.

Katie Hill (D)In a race that featured four Democratic candidates, the closestmargin was expected between frontrunners Katie Hill and BryanCaforio. In the end, it was Katie Hill who defeated the formerDemocratic candidate for CA-25, Bryan Caforio, by just over1,000 votes. Hill is a native of the district and Executive Director

of a homeless services nonprofit called PATH. She has support from nationalorganizations such as EMILY's List and NA RA L. The district has a Cook P VI scoreof EVEN, making it a top target for Democrats to flip.

CA-39

: Incumbent Ed Royce, Chairman of the powerful House ForeignAffairs Committee, was one of the most high profile HouseRepublicans to announce his retirement at the end of his current term.Since then, seven Republicans entered the race to keep the districtunder Republican control. The district is another top Democratic pick-up target, with a Cook P VI Score of EVEN. The district went for

Romney in 2012 by two points, but flipped to Clinton in 2016 by eight points. Itincludes parts of Orange, Los Angeles and San Bernardino Counties.

Young Kim (R)Young Kim, a longtime Royce aide, earned the top spot of the CA-39

ballot, taking 22% of the vote in a race of 13 candidates. Kim was

elected to the 65th District of California's State Assembly in 2014.

Gil Cisneros (D)Democrats breathed a sigh of relief when officially avoiding thepossibility of a shutout on the CA-39 ballot. In weeks leading upto the primary, the DCCC announced their support for GilCisneros, hoping Democratic voters in the district would avoid

diluting their vote amongst the many other candidates. The effort paid off and theformer Navy Lieutenant Commander squeaked away with 19% of the vote.Cisneros is also a former lottery winner who has received endorsements fromVoteVets and multiple California House Democrats.

CA-45

In a common trend throughout California's suburban House districts,Donald Trump's unpopularity did not necessarily hurt Republicanincumbents in the primary. In a district that voted for Clinton 50-44,Incumbent Mimi Walters took 53% of the vote in CA-45's primary.Walters will seek her third term in November in attempts to protecther Orange County seat that includes Irvine, Tustin and Mission

Viejo. Walter's vote to repeal the Affordable Care Act will likely be thesubject of her opponent's attacks.

Katie Porter (D)Progressive candidate Katie Porter came in second on CA-45's top-two primary ballot to challenge incumbent Mimi Walters inNovember. Porter is a consumer protection attorney, law professorand former student of Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA), whom shehas also received an endorsement from. The district has a

competitive Cook P VI Score of R+3, but Porter will have to swing the districtsignificantly to defeat Walters who easily won a 58% majority in 2016.

CA-48

Incumbent Dana Rohrabacher, who has been the center ofcontroversy over ties to Russia and WikiLeaks, successfully fended offConservative challenger Scott Baugh in the top-two primary. WhileRohrabacher took home the majority 30% of the vote, Baugh'ssupport of 16% could end up being consequential for Rohrabacher inNovember, as many of his Republican detractors could stay home or

even flip their vote. While Clinton won the district in 2016 taking XX% of thevote, the Orange County district still leans Republican, with a Cook P VI Score ofR+4.

While Dana Rohrabacher will vie for his fourth term representing CA-48, it's stillunclear who his Democratic challenger will be. Both frontrunners, Harley Roudaand Hans Keirstead, are in a statistical tie at 17.2%. With more mail-in ballots totally in Orange County, voters will likely have to wait until mid-June for theofficial results to come in. One of these two candidates will be on the ballot in

November:

Harley Rouda (D)Laguna Beach resident Harley Rouda is a businessman andattorney, and is certainly the "establishment" pick of theDemocratic candidates. He has endorsements from most ofCalifornia's Democratic delegation including House Minority LeaderNancy Pelosi. In order to avoid the possibility of a Democratic

shutout, the DCCC also joined the effort in supporting Rouda.

Hans Keirstead (D)Orange County biomedical researcher and business leader,Hans Keirstead has been a longtime local activist of stem cellresearch. He has advised several U.S. Representatives andSenators on healthcare and biotechnology.

CA-49

California's 49th Congressional District includes the northern part ofSan Diego and many suburbs surrounding it. This district is currentlyrepresented by Darrell Issa, who is retiring after his term expires inJanuary. His announced retirement led 16 candidates to announcetheir candidacy for his seat in a highly contested contest.

Mike Levin (D)Democrat Mike Levin will advance to the general election afterwinning 17% of the vote. Levin is running a progressive campaignthat focuses heavily on sustainable energy and the promise ofMedicare for all.

Diane Harkey (R)Diane Harkey came out on top of crowded field, winning 25.6%

of the vote in an election with a comically large number of

candidates. Harkey is running as a traditional conservative and

was endorsed by Darrell Issa earlier this year.

Prepared by Owen Taylor, Sam Lane and Casie Daugherty

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