calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the sleuth urban growth model in the baltimore...
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Calibrating, validating, and forecasting with the SLEUTH urban growth model in the Baltimore metropolitan area
Claire A. Jantz and Scott A. Drzyzga, and Michael MaretShippensburg University
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Washington, DC
Baltimore
Research objectives
Generate forecasts of urban growth in the BMRo Incorporate “drivers”
of urbanizationo Loosely couple with
hydrologic model to capture human-environmental feedbacks
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Washington, DC
BaltimoreCNH: Dynamic Coupling of the
Water Cycle and Patterns of Urban GrowthNSF award ID
0709537
How SLEUTH works
Calibration
1984
Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505
How SLEUTH works
Calibration
19841992
Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505
How SLEUTH works
Calibration
198419922001
Forecasting
Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505
How SLEUTH works
Calibration
Forecasting
Validation
1984199220012006
Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505
Research Design
Base Sewer service areas
Pop + Emp for
RPDsUnconstrai
ned- - -
Constrained with Pop
+ Emp forecasts
MIN MIN MIN
SQ SQ SQ
MAX MAX MAX
Assessing urbanization “drivers” with the exclusion
layer
Ass
ess
ing
gro
wth
rate
s
SLEUTH’s exclusion layers
Validation (unconstrained)
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Urb
an a
rea
(km
2 )
Year
Mapped
Base-unconstrained
Sewer-unconstrained
RPD-unconstrainedSLEUTH’s boom and bust coefficients remain unadjusted
Validation (unconstrained)
But the future is expected to be different from the past
Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts.
8,0001,000
1008060
40
20
06,4001,000 13,0001,000
Perc
ent
of
Lan
d a
s U
rban
Population Intensity(residents/km2)
Employment Intensity (jobs/km2)
Human Intensity (humans/km2)
Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts.
Validation (constrained)
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Urb
an a
rea
(km
2 )
Year
Mapped
RPD-Min
RPD-Status quo
RPD-MaxAdjust SLEUTH’s boom and bust coefficients
Validation (constrained)
Validation (constrained)
Constraining the forecasts
Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group. Round 7-B population and employment forecasts.
Constraining the forecasts
1,100
1,150
1,200
1,250
1,300
1,350
1,400
Urb
an a
rea
(km
2 )
Year
RPD-Min
RPD-Status quo
RPD-Max
Adjust SLEUTH’s boom and bust coefficients
Constraining the forecasts
Conclusions and lessons learned
SLEUTH’s calibration process can be used to evaluate “drivers” of urbanization
Validation is critical for:o Improving our understanding of how the
urban system behavesoQuantifying model uncertaintyo Incorporating additional models to
inform SLEUTH’s forecasts
References Baltimore Metropolitan Council - Cooperative Forecasting Group.
Round 7-B population and employment forecasts. Irani, F.M. and P.R. Claggett, P.R. (2010) Chesapeake Bay watershed
land cover data series: U.S. Geological Survey Data Series 2010-505 Jantz, C.A., S.J. Goetz, P. Claggett, and D. Donato (2010). Modeling
regional patterns of urbanization in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Computers, Environment and Urban Systems 34:1-16.
Maret, Michael (2011). Using the SLEUTH urban growth model to identify "drivers" of land use change in the Baltimore metropolitan region. Geoenvironmental research. Student white paper published at http://webspace.ship.edu/cajant/student_white_papers.html
McConnell, W.J at al. (2011). Research on Coupled Human and Natural Systems (CHANS): Approach, Challenges, and Strategies. Bulletin of the Ecological Society of America 92 (2): 218-228
THANK YOU
Claire Welty (PI), Andrew Miller, Bernadette Hanlon, and Michael P. McGuire
Claire Jantz (PI) and Scott A. Drzyzgawith Michael Maret.
Reed Maxwell (PI)
James Smith (PI)Mary Lynn Baeck Gary Fisher
CNH: Dynamic Coupling of the Water Cycle and Patterns of Urban
Growth
NSF award ID0709537