cadrage macroéconomique et trajectoire des finances...
TRANSCRIPT
KEY FIGURES FROM THE
2017 BUDGET
Press conference, 20 September 2016
DB
P F
OR
2017
Presented by
MICHEL SAPIN, Minister for the Economy and Finance CHRISTIAN ECKERT, Minister of State for the Budget and Public Accounts
2
Three battles since 2012
• Fiscal consolidation
• Stimulating growth and jobs
• Social justice
3
“A much greater fiscal consolidation effort since 2012 than in
Germany”
Key: The differential between the French and German fiscal deficits widened by 2 percentage points of GDP between 2007 and 2012. It will narrow by 2 percentage points of GDP between 2012 and 2017.
0.2 - 0.1 0.0
- 2.5
- 4.8
- 2.7
-8.2
-7.2
-6.2
-5.2
-4.2
-3.2
-2.2
-1.2
0.2
1.2
2.2
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Germany France
4
“All of the increases in businesses’ taxes and contributions
since 2011 will be eliminated in 2017”
Sources: Calculations by the Ministry for the Economy and Finance. All of the taxes and contributions paid by businesses, except for indirect taxes and direct local taxes.
Cumulative change in discretionary tax measures affecting businesses (€bn)
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
5
“Profit margins have virtually returned to their historical
level”
29%
30%
31%
32%
33%
34%Average 2000-2007:
32.5%
2016-2017: 32%
2013Q4: 29.8%
Non-financial corporations’ profit margins (gross operating surplus/value added)
Sources: Insee, quarterly accounts and DBP forecasts
6
“A very brisk recovery in investment since the end of 2014”
Sources: Insee, annual accounts and DBP forecasts
+ 1.2% + 0.9%
+ 1.6%
+ 2.7%
+ 3.8% + 3.5%
0.0%
0.1%
0.1%
0.2%
0.2%
0.3%
0.3%
0.4%
0.4%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Real growth rate of non-financial corporations’ GFCF
7
“The market sector is posting net job growth again”
Sources: Insee and DBP forecasts
Year-on-year change in non-farm market sector employment
- 185
- 253
+ 56 + 56
- 107
- 25
- 62
+ 97 + 131
+ 153
-300
-250
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
8
“Measures taken since 2012 have protected living standards
for the six lowest income deciles"
0.5
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.0 -0.1
-0.1 -0.2 -0.3
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Impact of discretionary measures on households’ living standards between 2012 and 2017 (%)
Bottom decile Top decile
Sources: Calculations by the Ministry for the Economy and Finance Key: Assessment of the impact by income decile on households’ living standards from tax and benefit measures taken since May 2012 Between 2012 and 2017, households in the bottom income decile saw their living standard rise by an average of 4.7% as a result of the measures taken.
9
“In aggregate, the measures taken since 2012 did not lead to an
increase in income tax revenue”
Cumulative change in discretionary income tax measures (€bn)
Sources: Calculations by the Ministry for the Economy and Finance. All of the income tax measures passed since May 2012 (excluding the reform of earned income tax credit (PPE)).
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
€b
n
10
“Our measures have cut middle-class tax bills”
- 0.3
- 1.0 - 1.5
- 1.2
- 0.3
+ 1.0
+ 4.0
-0.2
-0.1
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
D1 D2 D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8 D9 D10
Change in discretionary income tax measures by decile (€bn)
Bottom decile Top decile
Sources: Calculations by the Ministry for the Economy and Finance. Key: The chart shows the impact of income tax measures passed since 2012 on the total income tax bill for each income decile.
11
“We still expect annual growth of 1.5% in 2016 and 2017.”
+ 0.2%
+ 0.6% + 0.6%
+ 1.3%
+ 1.5% + 1.5%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Sources: Insee, annual accounts and DBP forecasts
12
“Our deficit targets have also been maintained”
-5.1% -4.8%
-4.0% -4.0% -3.5%
-3.3%
-2.7%
-0.6%
-0.5%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
-0.1%
0.0%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Public deficit
Sources: Insee, DBP forecasts
“All additional expenditure measures are paid for”
Additional expenditure: €9bn
Central government expenditure* 5.7
Transfers to local authorities 1.2
Healthcare 0.7
Cut in contributions for self-employed craft
workers 0.1
Cut in corporate income tax for SMEs 0.3
Cut in personal income tax 1.0
13
Financing measures: €14bn
Adjustments to the Responsibility Pact 5.0
Social Security funds’ savings 1.5
Local government savings 1.0
Interest expenditure 1.2
Fighting tax fraud 1.9
“Investment in the Future” programme
disbursements 1.2
Tax disputes 0.7
Misc. tax measures 1.3
Consolidation announced in the Stability Programme: €5bn
* Education and youth, jobs, security and culture.
14
“All general government sectors have made considerable
efforts”
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%2
00
0
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Average growth from 2012 to 2016: 1.6 %
Average growth from 2000 to 2012: 3.6%
Sources: Insee and DBP forecasts
Nominal growth rate of public expenditure
15
“Following sharp rises between 2010 and 2013, the tax burden has
started to shrink”
41.0% 41.3%
42.6%
43.8%
44.8% 44.8% 44.7% 44.5% 44.5%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017Sources: Insee and DBP forecasts
Aggregate taxes and social security contributions as a proportion of GDP (excluding tax credits)
16
“This consolidation has finally enabled us to curb the growth of
public debt”
Sources: Insee and DBP forecasts
64.4%
89.6%
96.2%
96.1% 96.0%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
2007-2012: + 25.2 GDP percentage
points
2012-2017: + 6.4 GDP percentage
points
DB
P F
OR
2017
Save the date:
Presentation of the
Draft Budgetary Plan
on Wednesday,
28 September